The Weekly Observer (6/21~6/25)

I. News of the Week

1. A Week Into New COVID-19 Measures

● Health minister said Friday that the government will consider another state of emergency if there is another spike in cases.

● recorded 562 new cases on Friday, the third consecutive day that numbers increased by more than 100 from the same day the previous week.

● Overall case numbers are improving. Only Tokyo (1.08 times) and Chiba (1.10) recorded higher rates of new cases last week compared to two weeks ago. However, Okinawa still remains in “Stage Four,” the highest cautionary level.

● (CCS) Katsunobu Kato said Friday that there have been 37 confirmed cases of the “delta plus” variant, or a new variant of the “delta” (Indian) strain.

● A group of experts submitted on Wednesday a report to the health ministry’s advisory board, indicating that the “delta” strain is 1.95 times more transmissible than the traditional strain. It will account for more than half of total cases by July 12 and 68.9 percent around July 23, when the Olympics are scheduled to begin.

2. Government Steps Up Vaccinations

● CCS Kato said Thursday that the government reached its goal of administering a million vaccine shots a day three times this month. He added that, as of Wednesday, 51 percent of elderly citizens have been vaccinated at least once.

● The government plans to expedite vaccinations further by raising the daily cap at the SDF-operated mass vaccination sites in Tokyo and . Defense Minister said Friday that the SDF-operated sites will only allow individuals with reservations to get vaccinated.

● Vaccine czar Taro Kono said Monday on a TV program that he believes the government will complete vaccinating all willing citizens by the October/November goal set by Prime Minister .

● However, Kono also announced Wednesday that he government will no longer accept applications to set up workplace vaccination sites starting close of business on Friday due to an expected shortage in the supply of Moderna vaccines.

● He said that will reach 1.4 million shots per day including workplace vaccinations, which will exceed the available supply of vaccines.

3. Japan-U.S. Developments

1 The Weekly Observer (6/21~6/25)

● Defense Minister Kishi announced Tuesday that the Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) and U.S. Army will hold one of the largest-ever training exercises starting Thursday.

● Exercise Orient Shield will be held across the country between June 24-July 11. Around 3,000 personnel will participate this year, following the March defense ministers’ meeting in which the ministers agreed to bolster readiness through advanced exercises.

● Kyodo reported on Saturday that the government is arranging to cancel plans to install anti-ship missiles, one of the two U.S.-made long-range cruise missiles it planned to deploy with the JASDF’s main fighter F-15s.

● Introducing these missiles with a range of about 900 kilometers is viewed as one of the pillars of strengthening defense of the southwestern islands.

● However, Japan is being forced to cut costs to meet the U.S.’s ¥240 billion demand to modify the F-15s for compatibility with long-range missiles. It will also consider reducing the number of aircraft to modify from seventy.

4. Foreign Policy Developments

● Foreign Minister said Friday that, starting July 1, Japan will provide Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia with one million AstraZeneca vaccines each. Taiwan and Vietnam will also receive an additional one million doses.

● Motegi also said that, starting mid-July, Japan will provide countries in Southeast Asia, Southwestern Asia and the Pacific Islands a total of 11 million doses through the COVAX facility.

● The foreign ministry announced Tuesday that Senior Deputy Minister Takeo Mori will replace Takeo Akiba as vice foreign minister.

● The government plans to appoint the outgoing Akiba to replace Shigeru Kitamura as the new national security secretariat secretary-general. This is likely to give the foreign ministry more say in diplomacy and security issues.

● Takehiro Funakoshi, the director-general of the foreign ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, met with Lee Sang-ryeol, director general for the South Korean foreign ministry’s Asia and Pacific affairs, in Seoul on Monday.

● While the two agreed on the importance of trilateral cooperation with the U.S. on North Korea policy and the need to improve bilateral relations, the dispute over historical issues reached an impasse, as maintained its previous position demanding Japan show sincerity.

2 The Weekly Observer (6/21~6/25)

5. Defense-Related Developments

● On Tuesday, Kishi spoke with Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, federal minister of defence of Germany. The two reaffirmed opposition to unilateral attempts to change the status quo, as well as concerns over China’s coast guard law.

● The two also agreed to continue coordinating to conduct joint exercises, and discussed the possibility of a German frigate joining monitoring and surveillance activities against illicit ship-to-ship transfers by North Korea-related vessels.

● Asahi reported last Wednesday that the defense ministry’s draft white paper (to be finalized in July) focused on the rise of China.

● The draft notes China’s military activities are a strong concern for Japan, the region and the world. It also mentions for the first time that stability in the Taiwan region is important for Japan’s national security.

6. Political Developments

● The LDP and CDP agreed on Wednesday to hold an out-of-session examination (heikaichū shinsa) next month to discuss the country’s coronavirus response.

● The welfare and labor committee and steering committee in both Houses will hold sessions on July 7-8 and July 14-15, respectively.

● The LDP rejected the CDP’s demand to hold a separate examination over the “Akagi file,” a key document related to the finance ministry’s falsification of paperwork over the dubious sale of state-owned land to Moritomo Gakuen, a private educational institution.

● An expert study group of the ministry of health, labor and welfare on Tuesday presented a draft revising the “karoshi line,” or the line at which the government certifies a worker’s death is a result of overwork, for the first time in twenty years.

● While the current standard—80 hours of overwork a month in two to six months prior to the onset of health issues or 100 hours a month prior—will remain in place, under the revised rule, case can be ruled an industrial accident (rosai) if an employee works overtime close to the current line and works irregular hours.

7. State of the Economy

● On Friday, the government ratified the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free trade agreement. Japan became the third country to ratify the deal that is expected to enter into force later this year.

3 The Weekly Observer (6/21~6/25)

● The Cabinet Office released on Thursday this month’s monthly economic report, which outlines the current state of the economy.1

● It showed that the economy is slowly picking up, with exports, investments and corporate profit increasing moderately. At the same time, non-manufacturers continue to suffer, while private consumption continues to be weak.

● The ministry of health, labor and welfare on Tuesday began deliberations with labor unions and business groups on setting a standard for raising the minimum wage to an average of ¥1,000 nationwide from the current ¥902.

● Labor organizations argue that the current minimum wage is too low, while business groups say they cannot raise wages further due to the pandemic. The minimum wage was not raised a significant amount last year due to the pandemic.

● The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided at its monetary policy meeting last Friday to extend the financial support program for companies it started during the pandemic. The deadline will be extended from September 2021 to March 2022.

8. Issues Mount a Month Prior to the Olympic Games

● Yasuhiko Nishimura, grand steward of the Imperial Household Agency (Kunaichō) said Thursday that he believes Emperor is concerned that the Olympic Games could cause a further increase in coronavirus cases.

● CCS Kato downplayed the remarks, saying they did not represent the emperor’s views, but instead were the grand steward’s own views. Prime Minister Suga reiterated Kato’s statement on Friday.

● The organizing committee faced backlash for its initial decision to permit the sale of alcohol at stadiums. It reversed its decision on Wednesday, just days after the initial announcement that it would permit sales with a strict time limit.

● Suga said Monday that the government will consider holding the games without spectators if it declares another state of emergency. This comes after numerous health experts recommended holding the games without spectators.

● It also comes after the IOC, IPC, organizing committee, Tokyo and the agreed to set the limit for spectators at 10,000 people or 50 percent capacity at all venues. Reports suggest the opening ceremony’s spectator cap will be raised to 20,000 to make room for IOC members and sponsors.

● Tokyo Koike announced on Saturday that the metropolitan government will cancel all plans to open public viewing sites in the capital. Many of the venues will be used as mass vaccination sites instead.

1 “Getsurei Keizai Hōkoku 月例経済報告” [Monthly Economic Report], Cabinet Office of Japan, June 24, 2021, https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai3/getsurei/2021/0624getsurei/main.pdf

4 The Weekly Observer (6/21~6/25)

9. Other Developments

● Toshiba’s shareholders ousted board chairman Osamu Nagayama and a member of the audit committee on Friday. It is extremely rare for the company’s personnel proposals to be rejected.

● The report, released on June 10, found that Toshiba executives colluded with the trade ministry to pressure shareholders over their votes at last year’s general meeting. Toshiba wanted to prevent activist shareholders from adding three members of its choice to the board.

● The company announced Friday night that CEO Satoshi Tsunakawa will serve as interim chairman of the board. Only 8 of the 13 candidates nominated in May by the company will sit on its board.

● Tokyo police arrested on Friday two METI officials—Makoto Sakurai and Yutaro Arai—on suspicion of applying for subsidies through a shell company last December to swindle about ¥5.5 million (≈$50,000).

● Small- and mid-sized businesses that have experienced a drop in sales can apply for a lump sum of up to ¥6 million (≈$54,000) to help pay rent.

● The Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld a 2015 ruling that legal provisions forcing married couples to take the same surname is constitutional. The justice ministry says Japan is the only country in the world that legally stipulates a married couple must take on the same surname.

10. Electoral Developments

● CDP leader said Friday that he instructed the party to include the goal of temporarily lowering the consumption tax to five percent in its campaign pledges for the snap election. It is viewed as a key COVID-19 countermeasure.

● LDP lawmaker and National Public Safety Commission chairperson Hachiro Okonogi submitted his resignation letter to Suga on Friday. The cabinet-level member will run for the Yokohama City mayoral election in August.

● LDP lawmaker and former chief cabinet secretary also announced he will not be running for re-election in the upcoming Lower House race. He is set to retire as a lawmaker.

● The government’s electoral reform panel will soon begin reviewing the reapportionment of ten Lower House seats to even the voting power disparity between the most populated and least populated electoral districts.

5 The Weekly Observer (6/21~6/25)

● Preliminary data from the 2020 census released Friday shows that there is a disparity of 2.09 times between the most and least populated districts. The Supreme Court found that a disparity above two is constitutionally problematic.

● The government could submit a bill to finalize the proposed allocation during the next ordinary Diet session scheduled to begin in January. The reapportionment will not apply to this upcoming Lower House election.

11. Tokyo Assembly Election Next Sunday

● The Tokyo Assembly election’s campaign period began Friday, with the election set for Sunday next week. Parties began campaigning on the streets ahead of the consequential election which is likely to impact the Lower House election.

● A total of 271 candidates are campaigning for 127 seats in 42 electoral districts. The LDP is fielding sixty candidates, the most out of any party.

● It will work with to overtake the Tomin First Party (Tokyoites First), formerly headed by Governor Koike, which holds the most seats in the legislature.

● The key issues in this election will be the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s coronavirus response, the Olympic Games and whether the LDP-Komeito coalition will win in the local polls ahead of the national polls in the fall.

● AERA, an Asahi Shimbun magazine, published an article on Sunday which predicts the LDP-Komeito coalition will regain a majority in the assembly. It projects the Tomin First Party could fall to the fifth largest party in the assembly.

12. Other Noteworthy News

● Government Partially Discloses the “Akagi File”: Finance Minister Taro Aso said Friday that the government does not plan to disclose the documents compiled by Toshio Akagi, a bureaucrat who committed suicide in 2018 after being forced to take part in the falsification of documents related to a questionable sale of state-owned land. The government maintains that this is an issue to be dealt with in court, and that there is no need for a reinvestigation into the matter. The government also rejected demands by the opposition to deliberate the issue at an out-of-session examination. Instead, it agreed to a closed meeting of the finance affairs committee in both Houses on Thursday. The “Akagi file” was partially disclosed on Tuesday, revealing copies of emails from the Tokyo headquarters of the finance ministry requesting certain things, such as deleting references to Akie Abe, former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s wife, from the paperwork related to the heavily discounted sale of land to private school operator Moritomo Gakuen. One email from headquarters said instructions had been given by Nobuhisa Sagawa, then director-general of the financial bureau, to rewrite the public documents. The documents reveal that the finance ministry forced Akagi and other local

6 The Weekly Observer (6/21~6/25)

bureaucrats to falsify paperwork, but did not reveal why this had to be done. The government will decide by July 16 whether it will fully disclose the documents.

II. Public Opinion Polls ● A FNN/ poll released Monday showed a 43 percent approval rating for the , the same as May, and a disapproval rating of 52 percent, down one percent.2 ○ 36 percent of respondents somewhat or strongly approve of the government’s coronavirus response, up 11 percent, while 57 percent said they disapprove, down 13 percent. ○ 38 percent of respondents said the government’s decision to lift the state of emergency in nine prefectures besides Okinawa was appropriate; 50 percent said it should have been extended; and 10 percent said it should have been lifted earlier. ○ 47 percent of respondents believe the government’s decision to shift ten prefectures such as Tokyo and Osaka to pre-emergency measures until July 11 was appropriate; 30 percent believe it is too short; 13 percent believe it is unnecessary; and 7 percent believe it is too long. ○ 35 percent of respondents believe the government’s decision to relax coronavirus countermeasures and allow eateries to serve alcohol until 7 p.m. is appropriate; 33 percent believe it should be relaxed further; and 28 percent believe it should be stricter. ○ 64 percent believe the government’s vaccination program is too slow to achieve the goal of completing vaccination of all willing citizens in October/November; 29 percent believe it is the appropriate speed; and 5 percent believe it is being rushed too much. ○ 51 percent of respondents plan to get vaccinated; 26 percent are already vaccinated; 19 percent will wait and see to decide; and 5 percent will not get vaccinated. ○ 35 percent said the Olympic Games should be held without spectators; 33 percent of respondents said it should be held with limited spectators; and 31 percent said it should be cancelled. ○ 70 percent of respondents believe the measures in place to mitigate the spread of the virus during the Olympics—from daily testing to GPS monitoring to disqualifying violators—will be “somewhat” or “very” effective, while 28 percent believe the measures will have “little” to “no” effect. ○ 19 percent of respondents prefer Taro Kono as the next prime minister; 19 percent prefer none of the choices; 16 percent prefer ; 11 percent prefer Prime Minister Suga; 9 percent prefer Shinzo Abe; 9 percent prefer Shinjiro Koizumi; 4 percent prefer Yukio Edano; 3 percent prefer

2 “Tōkyō Oripara ‘Mukankyaku’ de Kaisai Sanjūgo-ten Sanpāsento FNN/Sankei Gōdō Yoron Chōsa (Nisen-nijūichinen Rokugatsu) 東京オリパラ「無観客」で開催 35.3% FNN・産経合同世論調査【2021年6月】” [35.3% Prefer Olympic and Paralympic Games are Held Without Spectators FNN/Sankei Joint Public Opinion Survey (June 2021)], FNN Prime Online, June 21, 2021, https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/198922

7 The Weekly Observer (6/21~6/25)

Kishida Fumio; 1 percent prefers Seiko Noda; and less than a percent each prefer Hakubun Shimomura, Yasutoshi Nishimura, Toshimitsu Motegi and Katsunobu Kato, respectively. ○ 34 percent of respondents plan to vote for the LDP in the proportional representation portion at the upcoming Lower House election; 10 percent for the CDP; 7 percent do not plan to vote; 4 percent for the ; 3 percent for Komeito; 3 percent for the Communist Party; 3 percent for other parties; 1 percent for the Democratic People’s Party; and less than a percent for the Social Democratic Party, The Party to Protect the People From Old Parties and Reiwa Shinsengumi, respectively.

● The survey also collected data on the latest approval ratings of political parties.

Party Name Approval Rate (%)

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 37 (+2)

Komeito (coalition partner of the LDP) 3 (±0)

Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) 8 (±0)

Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) 3 (±0)

Democratic Party for the People (DPP) 1 (±0)

Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 (±0)

Social Democratic Party (SDP) 1 (+1)

Reiwa Shinsengumi 0 (±0)

The Party to Protect the People from Old Parties 0 (±0) (Former NHK Party)

Independents 43 (-2)

● An Asahi Shimbun poll released Monday showed a 34 percent approval rating for the Suga cabinet, a one percent increase from May, and a disapproval rating of 42 percent, down five percent.3 ○ 34 percent of respondents said the Olympics should be held in the summer, up 20 percent from May; 32 percent said it should be cancelled, down 11 percent; 30 percent said it should be postponed again, down 10 percent. ○ 53 percent of respondents said the games should be held without spectators, while 42 percent said it should be held with limited spectators.

3 “Gorin ‘Mukankyaku de’ Gojūsan Pāsento Naikaku Shiji Sanjūyon Pāsento Asahi Yoron Chōsa 五輪「無観客で」53% 内 閣支持34% 朝日世論調査” [Asahi Public Opinion Survey 53% Support Olympics Without Spectators 34% Cabinet Approval Rating], Asahi Shimbun, June 21, 2021, https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASP6N6DNCP6NUZPS004.html

8