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Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Hans Hans Hanson, Lund Universty International View - Hurricanes, Cyclones, Typhoons Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Hurricane Damage Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 1 Hurricane Flooding – Katrina in New Orleans 2005 050829 050826 Bah. 050823 Cuba Jam. Haiti Dom.Rep. Category 5 => max wind 95 m/s Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Storm-Threats to Coastal Cities Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Flooding of Cities due to Rain, Rivers, and Tides Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 2 GREEN HOUSE EFFECT Hans Hanson, Lund Universty GREEN HOUSE EFFECT 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 80 18 2 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty GREEN HOUSE EFFECT CO N2O CO2 2 CO2 CH4 CFC Meat Prod. N2O = laughing gas CH4 = methane CFC = freon Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 3 GREEN HOUSE GASES CO2 CH4 (methane) 19% 64% 10% 6% CFC (freon) N O (laughing gas) 1% 2 Other (Ozone, Halone,...) Conc. (PPB) Life (yrs) Rel. Effect CO2 350,000 3-5 1 CH4 1,800 5-10 25 N2O 304 100-150 250 Ozone 40-80 0.1 2,000 CFC 0.6 100 20,000 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Bogren et al. (2006) PALEO CLIMATOLOGICAL RECONSTRUCTION Nat’l Geogr., 193(5), 1998 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty CORRELATION CO2 AND TEMPERATURE? 2008 = 385 ppm Inter glacial periods Methane (ppb) IPCC Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 4 RECENT TEMP VARIATIONS IPCC the past 1200 years Small climatic optimum Small ice age Nat’l Acad. Sci., 2006 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty RECENT & PROJECTED CO2 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty IPCC RECENT & PROJECTED TEMP CO2 What is 5 deg temperature difference? IPCC Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 5 5-DEG DIFFERENCE 30 Now Future 25 Cooler periods Warmer periods less common. more common. 20 15 Extremely warm periods much 10 more common. Extremely cold New extreme 5 periods very temperatures rare. occur. Relative frequency of (%) frequency occurrence Relative 0 -20-100 10203040 Temperature (oC) Hans Hanson, Lund Universty TEMPERATURE vs. SEA LEVEL Temp (oC) MSL (m) Time (1,000 yrs) Roper (2010) http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid Hans Hanson, Lund Universty CONTRIBUTION TO SLR (%) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 6 GLACIAL RETREAT 2003 Glaciers Switzerland Hans Hanson, Lund Universty ANTICIPATED FUTURE SLR SMHI estimation 2009 MSL = +100 cm 2100 Klimat- o Sårbarhetsutredningen estimation 2007 MSL = +80 cm 2100 ~30 cm Historic Trend MSL IPCC Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Nat’l Geogr., 184(6), 1993 TIME AGAIN? Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 7 SUGGESTED CHAIN OF EVENTS Increasing Concentrations of Green House Gases in the Atmosphere Increasing Temperatures Persistent Sea Level Rise More and Worse Floodings Impact on Nature & Impact on Resources Human Society More and Worse Coastal Erosion Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Water level fluctuations in the S Baltic Sea 14,500 Baltic Ice Lake Yoldia Sea Ancylus Lake Lake Ancylus Sea Yoldia Lake Ice Baltic 11,600 11,200 10,500 10,500 11,200 11,600 40 11,500 20 H Ö 0 * M 10,700 -20 * * 6,500 -40 * 10,000 Sea Littorina 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14 12 101000-tals 8År Före Nutid 6 4 2 0 1,000 years1000-tals before år fpresentöre nutid 3,000 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Possible Threats Overwash Flooding Erosion Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 8 Consequences of Sea Level Rise Shoreline Recession Shoreline Recession Higher Sea Level Low, flat coast High, steep Lower Sea Level coast Sea Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Erosion of Upper Profile/Dune Hans Hanson, Lund Universty SEA LEVEL RISE! WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BEACH? R R1 FutureNew SL Sea Level Present Sea Level Rocky shore New bottom? Present Bottom Level 1 1 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 9 SEA LEVEL RISE! WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BEACH? R1 New SL Present Sea Level Sandy shore New bottom? Present Bottom Level 1 1 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty SEA LEVEL RISE! WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BEACH? R1 FutureNew SL Sea Level Present Sea Level Sandy shore NewFuture bottom? Bottom Level Present Bottom Level 1 1 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty SEA LEVEL RISE! WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BEACH? R Eroded material Future Sea Level B Ackumulated material A Present Sea Level S Present beach profile Future beach profile R = S/bottom slope Sandy shore Bruun rule: An increase S of MSL => coastal erosion R = S/bottom slope. If bottom slope = about 1/100 => A sea level rise of 1 m => erosion R = 100 m. Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 10 MEASURES AGAINST RISING SEA LEVELS? Groins? Detached Breakwaters? Seawalls? Hans Hanson, Lund Universty MEASURES AGAINST RISING SEA LEVELS? s s L ~ 450 M S ~ 1 m yr 2100 Added volume V = S*L m3/m beach V ~ 450 000 m3/km ~ 5 000 m3/km per yr ~ 500 000 SEK/km/yr over 90 yrs! Hans Hanson, Lund Universty BEACH WIDTH REDUCTION OF STORM DAMAGES Dean, 1988 An investigation of 540 damaged structures after Hurricane Eloise (1975) along Florida Panhandle shows that an increase of beach width by 50 ft (15 m) reduces the damages significantly (Dean, 1988) increase in beach width by 15 m reduces ~15 m structural damages down to ~ 1/2 - 1/3! Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 11 ÅSAND FOR STORM PROTECTION? ÅUS Army Corps nourished Åjust prior to Sandy Å6 miles N, Brant Beach, NJ, Å“No overwash or wave damage” ÅHolgate, NJ, “Complete destruction – it’s like a war zone” ÅMayor Mancini estimated that if the entire Long Beach coast (30 km) had had the same beach as Brant Beach they would have saved ~$500M. Hans Hanson, Lund Universty ÅHouston (2013) Study Site SWEDEN Lund Copenhagen Malmö DENMARK Study site GERMANY POLAND Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Study Site Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 12 Water Levels in Falsterbokanalen Sea level relative to Mean Sea Level (MSL) between 1942-1998 150 y = 0.0002x + 0.9159 Trend: 0.073 cm/yr (or 0,006cm/month) 100 50 ) cm . ( 0 Sea level level Sea -50 -100 166 000 data points! -150 1942 1970 1998 Year Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Annual High Water Levels (corrected for MSL change) Water level above MSL (cm) 160 140 Trend = 0.45 cm/yr 120 100 80 60 Antal dagar/år > 21 m/s 35 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Uppmätta 30 Trend 25 20 15 r ar/å dag 0.32 10 5 Källa: SMHI (1989) 0 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 År Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Distribution of ’Detrended’ NHW Levels 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Water Level Rel Trend (cm) -25 -30 Meas - trend -35 Trend (MHV) -40 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2050? Year 1.00 0.90 Conditions1996 0.80 0.70 0.60 MV = 0.09 0.50 SD = 16.68 0.40 0.30 P (Annual high > Level) > high (Annual P 0.20 Measurements 0.10 Normal distr. 0.00 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 NHWHans Level Rel Trend Hanson, (cm) Lund Universty 13 FUTURE SEA LEVELS? P (Annual high > level) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 Level relative present MSL (m) Present situation Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Normal distribution 1001.0 KumulativCumulative normalfördelning normal (inverterad)distribution (inverted) 800.8 40 NormalNormalfördelning distribution 30 600.6 20 10 P (Betyg1 < x < Betyg2) < x < (Betyg1 P P >(x Betyg) 400.4 0 -2-101234567 Betyg 200.2 0.00 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty-2-101234567 Betyg Increase in SL 2000 - 2050 Trend in NHW in Trend Trend in MSL in Trend Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 14 FUTURE SEA LEVELS? P (Annual high > level) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 Level relative present MSL (m) Present situation 2050, 57-yr trend+ increased GHE 2100, SMHI Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Increasing SL – What is flooded? Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Digital Elevation Modell – Existing (x,y,z) Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 15 Digital Elevation Model – New Data Based on 18,000 known points (x, y, z). Vertical scale exaggerated to enhance 3D-effekt. Hans Hanson, Lund Universty SKANÖR/FALSTERBO – FLOODED REAL ESTATE FOR DIFFERENT SEA LEVELS... P(annual high level > level) 2010 2050 2100 Level relative present MSL (m) 18% 67% Hans Hanson, Lund Universty0% IS IT ECONOMICALLY DEFENDABLE? Cost dams/dunes (50 yr): about 0.6 MEuro/km = $M10 ~ $M0.2/yr $M0.5/yr Cost sand (~10 km): $M15 over 50 yrs = $M0.3/yr Protected values (c:a) (2012): $B6 Cost ~ 0.4% ~ 0.008%/yr Total number of houses ~ 3,100 Home insurance premiums 2012 ~ $450/yr/house (avg SE) ~ $M1.5/yr Living expences 2011 (avg SE) ~ $12,000/month/house ~ $M37/yr Commute cost (10 000 out, 3 000 in, 1.5 p/carl, 15 km*2) ~ $M0.1/day! NL: Protective measures $M1,600/yr ~ 0.1%/yr Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 16 ECONOMY BEACH NOURISHMENT YSTAD 2009 Total cost beach nourishment ~ 3 Mkr/yr 1 m2 7 m3 sand / m2 beach 3 2 1 m sand ~ 100 kr => 700 kr/m 7 m3 Beach tourism in Ystad total sale ~ 440 Mkr/yr Total income (~12%) from beach tourism in Ystad ~55 Mkr/yr Suppose 80% from 10 summer weeks => 4.5 Mkr/summer week (3Mkr in 4.6 days) Suppose 80% Ystads Sandskog (1 km) 42 Mkr/yr = 42 000 kr/m/yr Compensation for SLR = 500 000 kr/km/yr = 500 kr/m/yr! Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Worst Case Scenario? Hans Hanson, Lund Universty Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 17 THE END L13-12 Hans Hanson, Lund Universty 18.
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