TRAI

WIRELESS DATA SERVICES IN

AnAnalyticalReport

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India Government of India

TRAI

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (IS/ISO 9001-2008 Certified Organisation)

WIRELESS DATA SERVICES IN INDIA

AnAnalyticalReport

Mahanagar Doorsanchar Bhawan, Jawahar Lal Nehru Marg, New Delhi-110002 Tel : +91-11-23221856, Fax : +91-11-23235249 Website : www.trai.gov.in

From the Desk of the Chairperson

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), in recent years, has taken many initiativestoempowertheconsumerandpromotethegrowthoftelecommunications sector. Telecommunications is one of the fastest evolving sectors in the world and telecomprovidersneedtoinnovatecontinuallyinordertoremaincompetitive.The newtechnologieshaveledtoconvergenceofnetworkswithasinglenetworkdelivering voiceaswellasdataservices.Thishasresultedinanexplosivegrowthindatausagein Indiaaccompaniedbyasharpfallinprices.Themobiledatausagepersubscriberin Indiaisamongstthehighestintheworldandthepriceofdataamongstthelowest..

WiththeforbearanceregimeadoptedbyTRAIintelecomtari,intensecompetition and technological developments in the sector, the last few years have witnessed greaterwirelessdatausageforcommunicationandentertainment.Withthemobile service providers employing technologies like Long Term Evolution (LTE)/4G technologies,proliferationofaordablemobilehandsetsandlowtaris,thevolumeof usageofdataisexpectedtogrowsimilarlyinfuturealso. .

Thisreportisbasedoninformation&statisticsfromvariousresourcesavailablewith TRAIandisanin-houseexercise.ImustacknowledgetheeortsputinbytheTRAIs FinanceandEconomicAnalysis(F&EA)teamledbyShriS.K.Mishra,PrincipalAdvisor (FinanceandEconomicAnalysis). .

This report provides an excellent perspective of the wireless data usage and its growth in India. We hope this report will be useful to stakeholders. .

R.S.SHARMA Chairperson

TABLEOFCONTENTS

Introduction 2

ExecutiveSummary 3

CHAPTERS

Chapter1:WirelessDataSubscribers 5

Chapter2:WirelessDataUsage 15

Chapter3:RevenuefromWirelessDataUsage 25

Chapter4:WirelessDataServiceFuture 33

IndexofChartsandTables 42 INTRODUCTION This Report presents the Key Parameters and mobile internet subscriptions. On one growthtrendsofWirelessDataUsage,Wireless hand, with the steep decline in taris of DataSubscribers,MarketShareinWirelessData telecommunication services, the aordability Services,WirelessDataRevenue,Averagecost hasincreased,ontheotherhandthecontent, to subscriber for Wireless Data etc. in the last not only in English and Hindi, but in regional four years. The information available in this languages also, is readily available at reportislargelybasedonthedata/information aordablepricetotheconsumers.Asaresult, provided by the telecom service providers to consumption of data has increased multifold. theTelecomRegulatoryAuthorityofIndia. . Access to internet has empowered millions of Indians by giving them access to real-time Lastfouryearshavewitnessedunprecedented information, government services, e-markets, growth in wireless data usage for andsocialmedia.Thisdevelopmentishavinga communication and entertainment. With the positive impact on improving their quality of entryofanewTSPusingLongTermEvolution life with digital information. . (LTE)/4G technology and also the consequent gradual adaptation of this technology by the Thisreporthasbeendividedintofourchapters:- leading incumbents, data usage has grown (1) Wireless data subscribers, . sharply and it is expected to grow further in future also. Upgradation of mobile networks (2) Volumeofwirelessdatausage,. from 2G to 4G in large parts of the country (3) Revenuefromwirelessdatausage. along with availability of smart phones at (4) Wireless Data Usage Future . relatively aordable prices is driving the

Chapter-1isaboutthewirelessdatasubscriptionwhichincludesyearly netadditionandyear-on-yeargrowthrateofwirelessdatasubscribers. CHAPTER-1 Thisalsoincludesdistributionoftechnology-wiseandLSA-wisenumber of wireless data subscribers, share of PSUs and Private operators in wirelessdatasubscribers,etc. .

Chapter-2 discusses year-wise volume of wireless data usage which includes total volume of wireless data usage, its yearly growth rate, CHAPTER-2 volume of per subscriber wireless data usage, distribution of technology-wisedatausage,etc. .

Chapter-3isrelatedtoannualrevenuecollectedbythewirelesstelecom service providers from their customers for wireless data usage. It also CHAPTER-3 includes annual growth of data revenue, average revenue per data subscriberforwirelessdatausage,averagecosttosubscriberforperGB wireless data services, etc. .

Chapter-4 deliberates about the projections about growth of wireless data services in Indian Telecom Sector and international trends in CHAPTER-4 growthofwirelessdataservices.ApartfromthedataavailablewithTRAI, variousotherrecentresearchreportsandtheprojectionsmadetherein, havebeencited. .

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 The rapid revolution of tele-  The volume of total wireless data communicationsservicesinIndiahas usageincreasedfrom20,092million aidedtheoveralleconomicandsocial GB during the year 2017 to 46,404 development of the country. It has millionGBduringtheyear2018with enabled better connectivity among yearlygrowthof131%. Thevolume usersandgreateruseofinformation oftotalwirelessdatausagewas828 and communication technology millionGBduringtheyear2014. . (ICT) services and emergence of a  4G technology (LTE Long Term variety of new business models. Technology)wasintroducedinIndia Due to length and breadth of the duringtheyear2016.Duringashort country, wireless access network is period of time, 4G data technology the primary source for such becamethemarketleaderinwireless connectivity. Last few years have data usage. The share of 4G data seen rapid transformation of the usageintotalvolumeofwirelessdata Indian telecom sector with usage has been 86.85% during the introduction of LTE technology and year 2018. . the resultant intense competition amongtelecomserviceproviders. .  Totalrevenuecollectedfromwireless data usage was Rs. 54,671.44 crore  Total number of wireless data (excludingrentalrevenue)intheyear subscribers increased from 424.02 2018ascomparedtoRs.38,882crore million at the end of the year 2017 in the year 2017. . to 578.20 million at the end of the year2018withyearlygrowthrateof  Thevolumeofaveragewirelessdata 36.36%.Thenumberofwirelessdata usage per wireless data subscriber subscriberswas281.58millionatthe per month has increased from 4.13 end of the year 2014.  GB during the year 2017 to 7.69 GB during the year 2018. .

3  Theaveragecosttosubscriberforper  Numberofwirelessdatasubscribers GBwirelessdatausagewasRs.11.78 has increased year on year and per GB during the year 2018 as simultaneously, the volume of compared to Rs. 19.35 per GB wireless data usage increased during the year 2017. It may be multifold during the last two years. noted that the average cost to However, average revenue per subscriber for wireless data was wireless data subscriber showed Rs. 226 per GB during the year mixed trend during the last four 2015 i.e. before introduction of years. . 4G (LTE) technology. .  The year 2016 ushered in a  After the entry of a new telecom revolution in the way Indians used player in wireless telecom service mobile data owing to the withstate-of-the-art4Gtechnology widespread deployment of 4G, but in the year 2016, average cost to the world is swiftly moving on to subscriber for wireless data has even greater levels of data usage declined steeply during the years with the commercial deployment 2017 and 2018, due to intense of 5G technologies in the near tari competition in the telecom future. . service sector. .  Both, the Government of India  Average revenue per wireless data and the telecom industry, have subscribers (data ARPU) per month announced that they have initiated increasedfromRs.79.98intheyear preparatory steps for smooth and 2017toRs.90.61intheyear2018.It ecientrolloutof5Gforthebenet was recorded Rs. 71.25 per wireless of the consumers and the overall data subscriber per month in the economic development of the year 2014. . country. .

4 CHAPTER 1:

WIRELESS DATA SUBSCRIBERS

5 As per information received from the wireless wireless access subscribers have increasingly access service providers, number of wireless opted for wireless data subscription also. . data subscribers has increased from 424.02 The following Charts depict the number of million at the year ending 2017 to 578.20 wireless subscribers and wireless data million at the year ending 2018 with yearly subscribers and their share. . growthrateof36.36%. Merelyveyearsago, at the close of year 2013, there were only Chart1.1:Trendoftotalwirelesstelephone 227.91 million wireless data subscribers in subscribersandtotalwirelessdatasubscribers the country. . No.ofWirelessSubscribers(Million) 1,176.0 Total number of wireless data subscribers No.ofWirelessDataSubscribers(Million) comprises number of GSM (including LTE) 1,167.4 and CDMA data subscribers. Number of GSM 1,127.4 578.2 1,010.9 data subscribers includes 2G, 3G and 4G data 944.0 subscribers. . 424.0 Totalnumberofwirelesstelephonesubscribers 367.5 303.4 was 1176.00 million at the year ending 2018. 281.6 Out of total number of wireless telephone subscribers, the number of wireless data subscribers was 578.20 million at the year ending 2018. Thereby, the share of wireless data subscribers was 49.17% of the total 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 wireless telephone subscribers at the year ending 2018. The share of such wireless data Nonetheless, despite the phenomenal growth subscribers was 36.32% of the total wireless trajectory of wireless data subscribers in the subscribers at the end of year 2017. It can be last ve years, 50% of the total wireless seen from Chart 1.2 that 2016 onwards the subscribers598millioninabsolutenumbers, stilldonotavaildataservices. . Chart1.2:Shareofnumberofwirelessdatasubscribers overtotalnumberofwirelesssubscribers

55% Year 2014 2015 50% 2016 2017 2018 49.17% 45%

40%

35% 36.32%

32.60% 30% 29.83% 30.01%

25% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

6 Table1.1:NumberofWirelessDataSubscribers(inmillion)

YearofYear No.ofWireless No.ofWirelessData YearOverYear YearOverYear Ending Subscribers(million) Subscribers(million) GrowthinWireless GrowthinWireless Subscribers DataSubscribers

2014 943.97 281.58

2015 1,010.89 303.40 7.09% 7.75%

2016 1,127.37 367.49 11.52% 21.12%

2017 1,167.44 424.02 3.55% 15.38%

2018 1,176.00 578.20 0.73% 36.36%

As can be seen in Chart 1.2 and Table 1.1, over total wireless subscribers at the year growth of wireless data subscribers is much ending2014. . . more than the growth of total wireless Post 2016, the explosive growth of wireless telephone subscribers in the last few years. . data subscribers can be attributed to the Percentage of number of wireless data introduction of 4G (LTE) technology at subscribers over total wireless subscribers aordableratesonapan-Indiascale.Inashort increased from 36.32% at the year ending period of two years, 4G technology became 2017 to 49.17% at the year ending 2018. the leading technology as reected in the Shareofwirelessdatasubscriberswas29.83% following Chart 1.3. .

Chart1.3:Technology-wisetrendinnumberof wirelessdatasubscribersattheendoftheyear

Total 578.2

71.5

70.6 Total 424.0 436.1 Total 79.8 367.5

151.5 Total Total 303.4 105.4 281.6 192.0 214.7 2G 3G 238.3 4G 127.2 CDMA

Commencement of4Gservices 101.4 86.7 60.9

2.10 6.02 10.07 0.52 0.00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

7 AsmaybeseenintheChart1.3,duringthelast The following Chart depicts technology-wise two years, number of 4G data subscribers netaddition/declineintotalnumberofwireless increased manifold from 86.68 million at the data subscribers during the year 2018. As can endofyear2016to436.12millionattheyear be observed, 4G technology has seen a net ending 2018. On the other hand, number of addition of 197.8 million subscribers during 2G, 3G and CDMA data subscribers showed 2018whereas2Gand3Gtechnologyarelosing decliningtrendovertheyears.Itmaybeinferred their subscribers' base. This steep addition to that 2G, 3G and CDMA data subscribers have 4Gsubscriberbasecanbeattributednotonly graduallyshiftedto4G(LTE)technology. . to new subscribers but also to shifting of subscribers from 2G/3G/CDMA to 4G. .

Chart1.4:Technology-wisetrendofnetadditionin wirelessdatasubscribersduringtheyear2018(inmillion) 2G -8.3

3G -34.8

4G 197.8

CDMA -0.5

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

ThefollowingChartshowsthetechnology-wise subscribers during the last three years. . yearly growth (%) in number of wireless data

Chart1.5:Technology-wiseyearlygrowth(%)innumberofwirelessdatasubscribers

36.36%

30%

21.12% 2GUsers 20% 3GUsers 4GUsers 15.38% CDMAUsers 10% TotalUsers 7.75%

0% 174.95%

100% 67.24% 82.98% 66.51% 25.53%

0% -10.58% -21.10% -17.18% -10.41% -33.00% -47.32%

-100% -79.10% -75.50% -99.98% 2015 2016 2017 2018

8 It may be seen in the Chart 1.5 that wireless to tremendous growth in number of 4G data subscription of 2G, 3G and CDMA subscribersin2018. . technologies showed decline from the year The following Chart depicts the technology- ending 2017 to year ending 2018. However, wise distribution of number of wireless data total number of wireless data subscribers subscribersattheendofyear2018. . increased by 36.36% during the year due Chart1.6:Technology-wisedistributionofnumberof wirelessdatasubscribersattheendoftheyear2018

CDMA 0.0001million 578.2million. Total WirelessDataSubscribers

2G 71.5million

3G 70.6million

4G 436.1million

Out of total number of wireless data subscription (Table 1.2). On the other hand, subscribersof578.20millionattheyearending private telecom operators have 97.08% of 2018, the share of public sector undertakings market share with 561.29 million wireless (BSNL & MTNL) is 16.91 million which data subscribers at the end of 2018. . constitutes 2.92% of the total wireless data

Table1.2:DistributionofnumberofWirelessData SubscribersinPrivate&PSUoperators(inmillion)

Year PSU Pvt GrandTotal

2014 20.6 261.0 281.6

2015 21.4 282.0 303.4

2016 20.9 346.6 367.5

2017 20.2 403.8 424.0

2018 16.9 561.3 578.2

9 The following Chart depicts the trend of datasubscriptionduringthelastveyears.. Private vs. PSU market share of wireless Chart1.7:Privatevs.PSUmarketshare(%)ofwirelessdatasubscription

100% 7.30% 7.07% 5.69% 4.76% 2.92% PSU 90% Pvt 80%

70%

60%

50% 92.70% 92.93% 94.31% 95.24% 97.08%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Share of public sector undertakings in total The following Chart represents the year-on- wireless data subscription has declined from yeargrowthofPrivateandPSUswirelessdata 7.30% in the year 2014 to 2.92% in the year subscription during the last ve years. It may 2018. Market share of private players in total be seen that private sector telecom operators wireless data subscription has increased from have registered positive growth over last 92.70%intheyear2014to97.08%intheyear 5 years, whereas public sector telecom 2018. Here,itmaybenotedthatPSUs(BSNL operators have registered negative growth and MTNL) do not have 4G spectrum. . over5years(exceptfortheyear2015)..

Chart1.8:GrowthofPrivateandPSUswirelessdatasubscription

40% 38.99%

PSU 31.16% 30% Pvt.

22.92% Pvt 20% 16.52%

10% 8.02%

0%

4.33% 0% -2.54% -3.48% -10%

PSU -16.17% -20% GrowthofPrivateandPSUswirelessdatasubscription

-30% -28.89% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

10 The following Chart depicts the Licensed datasubscribersattheendofyear2018. . ServiceArea(LSA)wisedistributionofwireless

Chart1.9:DistributionofLSA-wisewirelessdatasubscribers(inmillion) ason31stDecember,2018

Jammu&Kashmir 6.38

HimachalPradesh 4.84 Punjab 21.38 UP-West Haryana 29.35 13.51 Delhi 32.78 Assam Rajasthan UP-East Bihar 10.67 33.25 40.32 35.60 NorthEast 6.22 WestBengal Gujarat 24.55 36.25 MadhyaPradesh 37.53 Kolkata Maharashtra 14.11 48.63 Mumbai Orissa 24.44 14.20

Karnataka AndhraPradesh 36.46 44.15

Kerala 21.96 TNincludingChennai 41.62

Attheendoftheyear2018,Maharashtraservice subscribersof48.63millionfollowedbyAndhra area had maximum number of wireless data Pradesh service area (44.15 million). .

11 Table1.3:Serviceareawisenumberof WirelessDatasubscribers(inmillion)andyearlygrowth(%)

ServiceArea 2017 2018 %Growth

AndhraPradesh 31.94 44.15 38.20%

Assam 8.37 10.67 27.40%

Bihar 23.35 35.60 52.45%

Delhi 26.44 32.78 23.99%

Gujarat 27.19 36.25 33.30%

Haryana 10.19 13.51 32.58%

HimachalPradesh 3.78 4.84 28.09%

Jammu&Kashmir 4.91 6.38 29.93%

Karnataka 27.93 36.46 30.58%

Kerala 17.22 21.96 27.54%

Kolkata 11.32 14.11 24.62%

MadhyaPradesh 22.14 37.53 69.49%

Maharashtra 35.29 48.63 37.82%

Mumbai 19.90 24.44 22.86%

NorthEast 5.06 6.22 22.91%

Orissa 10.15 14.20 39.93%

Punjab 16.27 21.38 31.40%

Rajasthan 22.79 33.25 45.91%

TNincludingChennai 31.59 41.62 31.76%

UP-East 30.09 40.32 34.00%

UP-West 20.98 29.35 39.89%

WestBengal 17.13 24.55 43.35%

GrandTotal 424.02 578.20 36.36%

All service areas showed growth in their subscribers (69.5%) during the year 2018 wirelessdatasubscribersduringtheyear2018. followed by Maharashtra service area with MadhyaPradeshserviceareashowedmaximum net addition of 13.34 million wireless data net addition of 15.39 million wireless data subscribers (37.82%). .

12 Chart1.10:LSA-wisenetadditionofWirelessDataSubscribers duringtheyear2018(inmillion)

AndhraPradesh 31.94 +12.2 44.15

Assam 8.37 +2.29 10.67

Bihar 23.35 +12.2 35.60

Delhi 26.44 +6.34 32.78

Gujarat 27.19 +9.05 36.25

Haryana 10.19 +3.32 13.51

HimachalPradesh 3.78 +1.06 4.84

Jammu&Kashmir 4.91 +1.46 6.38

Karnataka 27.93 +8.53 36.46

Kerala 17.22 +4.74 21.96

Kolkata 11.32 +2.78 14.11

MadhyaPradesh 22.14 +15.3 37.53

Maharashtra 35.29 +13.3 48.63

Mumbai 19.90 +4.54 24.44

NorthEast 5.06 +1.15 6.22

Orissa 10.15 +4.05 14.20

Punjab 16.27 +5.10 21.38

Rajasthan 22.79 +10.4 33.25

TNincludingChennai 31.59 +10.0 41.62

UP-East 30.09 +10.2 40.32

UP-West 20.98 +8.36 29.35

WestBengal 17.13 +7.42 24.55

0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 40 50

2017 NetAddition 2018

13 StatisticsofSmartphoneandFeaturePhoneownershipinIndia (Courtesy:Statista) Chart1.11:Smartphonepenetrationinsomedevelopedanddevelopingcountries SmartphoneOwnership:TheMobileDisconnect %ofAdultswhoownnomobilephoneorhaveanon-smartphonein2018*

NoMobilephoneorSmartphone MobilephonebutnotaSmartphone

India 35 40 75

Nigeria 17 44 61

Indonesia 29 28 57

Mexico 24 24 48

Philippines 23 22 45

Russia 7 34 41

Brazil 17 23 40

Canada 25 9 34

Japan 8 26 34

France 6 19 25

UK 5 19 24

Germany 6 16 22

Spain 2 18 20

Australia 6 13 19

UnitedStates 6 13 19

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

CC = *SelectedCountries @StatistaCharts Source:PewResearchCenter

Source:www.statista.com

The above Chart shows a low Smartphone owned a Feature Phone. Therefore, a penetrationinIndiaascomparedtosomeother considerable market exists in India for user- developed and developing countries as per friendly smartphones at reasonable prices. statisticsgivenbyStatistaontheuseofFeature This will not only increase the data usage on Phone, No Phone and Smartphone in some broadband but also increase the mobile countriesviz.,,Spain,Mexico, broadbandpenetrationinurbanandruralareas. India,US,Germanyetc.Smartphoneownership The spread of smartphones will help to grow ratesremainlowinIndia.In2018,75percentof the countrys economy by promoting access Indian adults did not own a smartphone. 35 to information, communication, education, percent had no phone at all while 40 percent commerce,infrastructureetc..

14 CHAPTER 2:

WIRELESS DATA USAGE

15 Thischapterpresentsvariousstatisticsrelated yearly growth rate of 131%. Total volume of to wireless data usage based on the data wireless data usage in the year 2014 was reported by the wireless telecom service only 828 million GB. . providerstoTRAIonmonthlybasis.Asshown Wireless data usage comprises data usage below, the wireless data usage has increased by GSM subscribers and CDMA subscribers rapidly, since the launch of 4G technology in during the year. GSM data usage includes Indiain2016. . volume of 2G, 3G and 4G data usage. Totalvolumeofwirelessdatausageincreased Technology-wise distribution of volume of from 20,092 million GB in the year 2017 to wireless data usage is mentioned in the 46,404 million GB in the year 2018 with followingtable. .

Table2.1:VolumeofYearlyWirelessDatausage(inmillionGB) YearEnding 2GData 3GData 4GData CDMAData TotalVolume Usage Usage Usage Usage ofDataUsage

2014 340 349 138 828

2015 479 700 196 1,375

2016 477 1,221 2,775 169 4,642

2017 423 3,187 16,426 56 20,092

2018 443 5,654 40,304 3 46,404

AsdepictedinTable2.1(above)andChart2.1 million GB in the year 2018. Share of 2G, 3G (below), out of the total volume of wireless and CDMA data usage is 0.95%, 12.18% and data usage of 46,404 million GB in the year 0.01% respectively in the total volume of 2018, 4G (LTE) technology contributed the wirelessdatausage. . major part of 86.85% with volume of 40,304

Chart2.1:Share(%)oftechnology-wisetotalvolume ofwirelessdatausageintheyear2018

4G:86.85%

3G:12.19%

2G:0.95%

CDMA:0.01%

16 The following Chart depicts the technology- year-on-year growth rate during the last ve wisedistributionofvolumeofdatausageand years. .

Chart2.2:Technology-wisedistributionofvolumeof datausage(millionGB)andyearlygrowthrate

VolumeofDataUsage 2G 3G 4G CDMA 5,654 479 477 196 40,304 443 423 169 340 138 3,187 16,426 56 1,221 700 349 2,775 3

YearlyGrowthRate

161.00% 491.92% 40.96% 100.40% 74.40% 77.39% 145.37% 41.40%

4.74%

-0.53% -13.53% -11.30%

-66.78% -94.49% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Volumeof4Gdatausageincreasedby145.37% leader in respect of wireless data usage intheyear2018overthepreviousyear.Service during the short period of two years from its providersstartedreportingof4Gdatavolume introduction in India. Volume of 2G and 3G duringtheyear2016(Q.E.June,2016)andthe data usage yearly increased by 4.74% and volume of 4G data usage increased manifold 77.39% in the year 2018. On the other hand, from 2,775 million GB in the year 2016 to volume of CDMA data usage declined sharply 40,304 million GB in the year 2018. 4G(LTE) by94.49%duringthesameperiod. . technology became the popular and market

Chart2.3:Trendofyearlygrowthinvolumeofwirelessdatausage(%)

2015 66.1%

2016 237.6%

2017 332.8%

2018 131.0%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%

17 Totalvolumeofwirelessdatausageincreased increased to 332.8% (in 2017). With the by 131% in the year 2018 over the previous stabilization of 4G technology in 2018, the year,ascomparedtothegrowthrateof332% growth rate of wireless data usage was intheyear2017. Withtheintroductionof4G recorded at 131% over the previous year. . technologyinIndiain2016andthepromotional ThefollowingChartdepictsthequarterlytrend oersgivenbythenewplayer,thegrowthrate of technology-wise growth of volume of of wireless data usage jumped from 66.1% wirelessdatausageduringthelastfouryears.. (in 2015) to 237.6% (in 2016) which further

Chart2.4:Quarterlytrendoftechnology-wisegrowthof volumeofwirelessdatausage(inmillionGB)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

11,237.89 9,081.24 13,132.26 10K 6,852.76 5,445.76 3,480.50 4,460.75 5K 2,488.90 3,038.54

4G 8.24 277.83 0K

1,497.01 1,390.87 1500 1,291.05 1,474.74 1,114.90 973.38 1000 707.32

3G 319.84 391.62 500 269.79 302.82 328.70 156.20 185.34 226.02 65.52 80.24 90.24 113.41 132.64 0 400

300

200 2G 99.65 108.90 119.15 123.85 127.28 122.65 124.12 123.99 105.88 102.80 113.08 111.57 115.05 111.56 115.18 71.60 88.67 95.34 101.05 100 80.01

0

80 58.75 58.89 53.37 46.65 46.34 60 40.20 43.89 35.88 30.19 32.17 32.13 40 25.02 20.23 16.66 13.15 CDMA 20 6.19 2.40 0.57 0.12 0.00 0 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter

ItmaybeseenintheaboveChartthatwireless on CDMA technology and their usage of datausagebysubscriberson2Gtechnologyhas wireless data has reduced signicantly since remained constant over the years. However, 2016 and has become negligible. These withtheintroductionof4Gtechnologyduring trendsshowthatthewirelessdatasubscribers the year 2016, volume of wireless data usage are shifting to 4G technology from other by subscribers on 3G technology has also technologies. . increased (though not at the same rate as Chart 2.5 shows the monthly wireless data in case of subscribers on 4G technology). The usage during the last ve years. . trendhasbeenreversedincaseofsubscribers

18 Chart2.5:Monthlytrendoftechnology-wisevolumeofwirelessdatausage(inGB)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

58 CDMA 2G 3G 48 Average:3,867,137,707 4G

38

28 Average:1,674,319,531 DataUsage

18

Average:387,678,721 Average:70,638,135 Average:117,345,139 08 May May May May May July July July July July April April April April April June June June June June March March March March March August August August August August October October October October October January January January January January February February February February February December December December December December November November November November November September September September September September

Thevolumeofaveragewirelessdatausagehas volume of average wireless data usage was increased sharply from 387.69 million GB per 70.64 million GB per month in the year 2014 monthintheyear2016to1,674.32millionGB (ReferChart2.5).. per month in the year 2017 and it increased Thefollowingchartdepictsthetechnology-wise further to 3,867.14 GB per month during the averagedatausageperwirelessdatasubscriber year2018bythewirelessdatasubscribers.The per month during the last ve years. .

Chart2.6:TrendofAverageWirelessDatausage(inGB)perwirelessdataSubscriberpermonth¹

Datausageperwirelesssubscriberpermonth(GB) 14.00

13.00 12.42 12.00

11.00

10.00 9.73

9.00 7.95 8.00 7.60 7.00

6.00 5.26 5.00 4.11 4.00

3.00 2.29 2.00 1.14 0.75 0.79 1.00 0.62 0.41 0.54 0.14 0.27 0.20 0.23 0.30 0.00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2Gdatausage 3Gdatausage 4Gdatausage Totalwirelessdatausage

¹Averagewirelessdatausageperwirelessdatasubscriberpermonthhasbeencalculatedinrespectoftotalvolumeofwireless datausageduringtheyearandthetotalnumberofaveragewirelessdatasubscribersoftheyear.

19 Chart 2.6 illustrates average wireless data Aftertheintroductionof4Gtechnologyin2016, usage per wireless data subscriber per month averagewirelessdatausagepersubscriberper increased from 4.11 GB during the year 2017 month, for 4G subscribers, was recorded at to 7.60 GB during the year 2018. The average 12.42GBpermonthwhichdecreasedto7.95GB wireless data usage per wireless data per month and then stabilized at 9.73 GB per subscriberpermonthwas0.27GBintheyear monthin2018.For3Gsubscribersalso,average 2014whichincreasedto1.14GBpermonthin wireless data usage per subscriber per month 2016.Withtheintroductionof4Gtechnology increased from 0.79 GB per month in 2016 to in 2016, the wireless data usage per wireless 5.26GBpermonthin2018(referChart2.6).. data subscriber per month registered Theabovedatacanbeanalyzedmonthlyalso. signicant improvement over the years and The following Chart 2.7 depicts the average reached 7.60 GB during the year 2018 (refer datausage(inGB)perwirelessdatasubscriber Chart 2.6). . per month during the last four years. .

Chart2.7:Monthlytrendofaveragewirelessdatausage(inGB) perwirelessdatasubscriberpermonth

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

9

8 Average:7.60

7

6

5 Average:4.11 4

3

AverageDataUsageperUser 2

Average:1.14 1 Average:0.41 Average:0.27 0 May May May May May July July July July July April April April April April June June June June June March March March March March August August August August August October October October October October January January January January January February February February February February December December December December December November November November November November September September September September September

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

20 ItmaybeseeninChart2.7thattheaverage ThefollowingChartdepictsthecomparisonof data usage per wireless data subscriber per average wireless data usage per subscriber month increased sharply from the month of permonthinIndiaascomparedtosomeother August, 2016 onwards and it shows an developed/developingcountries.. increasing trend continuously. .

Chart2.8:Comparisonofaveragewirelessdatausagepersubscriberpermonth(inGB) inIndiaascomparedtosomeotherdeveloped/developingcountries²

UNITED KINGDOM2 SOUTH KOREA6 UNITED STATES4

JAPAN4.5

INDIA8 SINGAPORE3

Indialeadstheway Monthlydatasubscription onmobiledevice persubscriberinGB

Source:'UnlockingDigitalforBharat'by Bain&Co.,Google,andOmidyarNetwork Mapnottoscale

²Source:FortuneIndia.com

It may be seen that India is a leading country permonthascomparedtoUSA,UK,Singapore, in wireless data consumption per subscriber Japan and South Korea. .

21 The following table depicts service area-wise yearly growth from the year 2017 to the yearly volume of wireless data usage with year2018. .

Table2.2:Servicearea-wisevolumeofwirelessdatausage (inmillionGB)anditsyearlygrowth

ServiceArea 2017 2018 Growth

AndhraPradesh 1,487.1 3,250.6 118.6%

Assam 369.2 917.4 148.5%

Bihar 1,177.0 3,003.5 155.2%

Delhi 1,298.8 2,723.0 109.7%

Gujarat 1,473.9 3,384.3 129.6%

Haryana 491.0 1,137.8 131.7%

HimachalPradesh 178.0 398.3 123.7%

Jammu&Kashmir 222.0 541.6 143.9%

Karnataka 1,384.0 3,015.9 117.9%

Kerala 814.0 1,766.1 117.0%

Kolkata 543.7 1,041.9 91.6%

MadhyaPradesh 1,189.8 2,828.0 137.7%

Maharashtra 1,647.1 3,973.5 141.2%

Mumbai 811.9 1,737.9 114.0%

NorthEast 212.4 474.8 123.5%

Orissa 474.9 1,134.2 138.8%

Punjab 888.5 1,890.9 112.8%

Rajasthan 1,077.4 2,594.7 140.8%

TNincludingChennai 1,541.9 3,442.4 123.3%

UP-East 1,238.3 2,743.5 121.6%

UP-West 937.1 2,601.0 177.5%

WestBengal 633.6 1,798.3 183.8%

GrandTotal 20,091.8 46,399.7 130.9%

22 Outofthetotalvolumeofwirelessdatausage morethan100%yearlygrowthinthevolume of46,400GBduringtheyear2018,Maharashtra of wireless data usage. . service area has maximum share with 3,974 The following Table depicts the LSA-wise million GB followed by Tamil Nadu (including average wireless data usage per data Chennai) with 3,442 million GB wireless data subscriber per month during the years 2017 usage.AllserviceareasexceptKolkata,showed and2018anditsgrowth. .

Table2.3:LSA-wiseaveragewirelessdatausage(inGB) perwirelessdatasubscriberpermonth

ServiceArea 2017 2018 %Growth

AndhraPradesh 4.0 6.9 69.8%

Assam 3.7 7.9 110.3%

Bihar 4.2 8.1 92.0%

Delhi 4.2 7.5 80.1%

Gujarat 4.7 7.4 56.9%

Haryana 4.3 8.0 87.9%

HimachalPradesh 4.0 6.5 61.9%

Jammu&Kashmir 4.0 7.9 94.9%

Karnataka 4.4 7.7 75.6%

Kerala 4.2 7.4 74.5%

Kolkata 4.2 6.8 64.0%

MadhyaPradesh 4.4 7.6 71.2%

Maharashtra 4.0 7.8 92.7%

Mumbai 3.6 6.4 80.2%

NorthEast 3.6 6.9 91.3%

Orissa 3.9 7.5 93.8%

Punjab 4.7 8.1 72.9%

Rajasthan 4.1 7.4 79.7%

TNincludingChennai 4.2 7.5 78.0%

UP-East 3.5 6.3 76.3%

UP-West 3.9 8.3 116.3%

WestBengal 3.1 7.0 121.9%

Overall 4.1 7.4 81.5%

23 Averagewirelessdatausageperwirelessdata datausageof6.3GBperwirelessdatasubscriber subscriberincreasedfrom4.1GBpermonthin permonthduringtheyear2018. . the year 2017 to 7.4 GB per month in the West Bengal, U.P.(West) and Assam service year 2018. During the year 2018, the average areasshowedtremendousgrowthofmorethan wireless data usage per wireless data 100% in volume of average wireless data subscriber per month has been the maximum usage per data subscriber per year from year inU.P.(West)servicearea(8.3GB)followedby 2017 to the year 2018. All other LSAs also PunjabandBiharserviceareas(8.1GBineach) showed yearly growth of more than 50% among all service areas. U.P. (East) service during the same period (refer Table 2.3). . area recorded the minimum average wireless Chart2.9:Trendofgrowthinwirelessdatasubscribers(million) andvolumeofwirelessdatausage(GB)

600 60000 578.20

500 50000 V olumeofWirelessDataUsage(MillionGB)

424.02 46406 400 40000 367.49 281.58 303.40 300 30000

20092 200 20000

100 10000 4642 No.ofDataSubscribers(Million) 828 1375 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

TotalWirelessSubscribers(Million) TotalWirelessDataUsage(MillionGB)

Both volume of wireless data usage and datausageismuchhigherthanthegrowthin number of wireless data subscribers have wireless data subscribers. This shows that shown positive growth over the years. wireless data usage per subscriber sharply However,rateofgrowthofvolumeofwireless increasedduringthelasttwoyears..

24 CHAPTER 3:

REVENUE FROM WIRELESS DATA USAGE

25 Thischapterpresentsstatisticsofrevenuefrom 2017toRs.54,671croreintheyear2018with wirelessdataservices(excludingrevenuefrom yearlygrowthrateof40.61%.Thetotalrevenue rental)basedonthequarterlydatareportedto fromwirelessdatausageswasRs.22,265crore TRAIbythewirelessTelecomServiceProviders in the year 2014. . (TSPs), relating to the revenue collected by ThefollowingChartdepictsyearlywirelessdata TSPs for the usage of wireless data by their revenue from GSM, CDMA and total wireless subscribers during the period. . datausage. . Total revenue from wireless data usage increased from Rs. 38,882 crore in the year

Chart3.1:YearlyRevenuefromWirelessDataUsage(incroreRs.)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GSM:19,933 GSM:28,728 GSM:33,345 GSM:38,222 GSM:54,619 CDMA:2,332 CDMA:2,392 CDMA:1,734 CDMA:659 CDMA:53 Total:22,265 Total:31,120 Total:35,079 Total:38,882 Total:54,671 YoYGrowth YoYGrowth YoYGrowth YoYGrowth 39.77% 12.72% 10.84% 40.61%

Aswehaveseenthedecliningtrendinnumber usage during the year. GSM data revenue has of CDMA data subscribers and the volume of registered signicant growth year-on-year CDMAdatausageinChapter-1andChapter-2 duringthelastfouryears.. respectively, the revenue from CDMA data The following Chart depicts the year-on-year usage also shows declining trend over growthinrevenueofwirelessdatausageduring year-on-year. . thelastveyears. . Revenue of GSM data services comprises thetotalrevenueof2G,3Gand4G(LTE)data

Chart3.2:Year-on-yeartrendofrevenueofwirelessdatausage(incroreRs.)

54,671 54,619 50K TotalDataRevenue CDMADataRevenue

GSMDataRevenue .) 38,882 40K 35,079 38,222 31,120 33,345 30K 28,728 22,265

20K 19,933

10K RevenueofWirelessdataUsage(inRs.Cr

0K 2,332 2,392 1,734 659 53

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

26 Chart3.2depictsthetrendinaveragerevenue over last 5 years. It increased from 71.25 in per wireless data subscriber (data ARPU) per 2014 to 90.03 in 2015 and then retreated to month for wireless data usage during the 79.98 in 2017. It again increased to 90.02 in years2014to2018. Averagerevenuefordata 2018. Somewhat similar trend is noted in services has been derived by dividing total GSMdataARPU,whereinARPUincreasedfrom yearly revenue of wireless data services by 65.47 in 2014 to 86.38 in 2016 and then the average number of wireless data retreated to 78.87 in 2017. It again increased subscribers during the year. . to 90.55 in 2018. CDMA data ARPU is ItmaybeseeninthefollowingChart3.3that signicantly higher than GSM data ARPU, but wireless data ARPU has shown a mixed trend this could be due to substantial reduction of CDMA subscribers. . Chart3.3:TrendofAverageDataRevenue(dataARPU)perwirelessdatasubscriber permonthforwirelessdataservice(inRs)

100 90.03 89.18 90.02 GrowthRate 79.98 71.25 2015 2016 26.36% 50 2017 2018 12.56% ARPU 0 TotalWirelessDataARPU -0.94% CDMADataARPU

otalWirelessDataARPU GSMDataARPU

T -10.32%

500 430.5 364.3 400 309.2 290.2 300 237.0

200 85.0 86.4 90.5 65.5 78.9 100

ARPU(GSM&CDMA) 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

It is noted that the average data revenue Whenweanalyzetheaveragecosttosubscriber per wireless data subscriber per month in terms of GSM users and CDMA users then increasedby12.56%intheyear2018,however averagecosttosubscriberofGSMdatashows it declined by 0.94% and 10.32% in the year declining trend over the last four years and 2016 and 2017 respectively. . itdeclinedfromRs.289perGBintheyear2014 The average cost to subscriber for wireless to Rs. 11.77 per GB in the year 2018. Average dataintheyear2014wasRs.269perGBand CDMA data cost to subscriber per GB shows mixed trend during the same period. in the year 2015, it was Rs. 226 per GB. On However,averagecosttosubscriberforoverall introduction of 4G (LTE) technology in India, wireless data service shows declining trend average cost to subscriber for wireless data overtheperiod.. usage sharply declined to Rs. 75.57 per GB during the year 2016. Further, average cost The following Chart 3.4 depicts the trend tosubscriberforwirelessdatadeclinedfrom between Wireless Data ARPU and total Rs.19.35perGBintheyear2017toRs.11.78 wireless ARPU (voice, data & SMS) during the lastfouryears. . per GB in the year 2018. .

27 Chart3.4:TrendofWirelessdataARPUandtotalwirelessARPUpermonth(inRs)

120 114.04 106.25 100 90.03 89.18 90.61 81.39 80 79.98 70.55

60

40

20

0 2015 2016 2017 2018

DataARPU TotalARPU

Wireless data ARPU has been derived by Rs. 70.55 per month during the year 2018, dividing the total wireless data revenue by however, Data ARPU increased from Rs. 79.98 total wireless data subscribers. Similarly, to Rs. 90.61 during the same period. . wireless ARPU has been derived by dividing ThefollowingChart3.5showsthetechnology the total subscriber revenue by total number wise(GSMandCDMA)trendofaveragecostto ofwirelesssubscribersduringtheperiod. . subscriberforwirelessdataduringtheyear.. Total wireless ARPU per month declined from Rs. 81.39 per month during the year 2017 to

Chart3.5:Trendoftechnology-wiseAveragecosttosubscriberforPerGBwirelessdata(Rs.)

AverageCosttoSubscriberforPerGBWirelesssData(Rs.)

350.00

300.00 289.15 268.97 250.00 243.58 226.30 200.00 168.48 169.67 150.00 122.20 117.24 102.42 100.00 75.57 74.55 50.00 19.3519.08 11.7811.77 0.00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GSMDataCostperGB CDMADataCostperGB AverageWirelessDataCostperGB

28 Chart3.6:RelationbetweenaveragecosttosubscriberforperGBwirelessdata andaverageusageofwirelessdata(GB)persubscriberduringtheyear

100

92.29 268.97 250

80 226.30

200

60

150 49.59

40

100 AverageDataCostperGB

75.57 AverageDataUsageperDataSubscriber(inGB) 20 50 14.16

19.35 4.77 11.78 3.18 0 0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AverageCostperGB

Asperthestatistics,ithasbeenobservedthat usage of wireless data per subscriber sharply whentheaveragecosttosubscriberofwireless increasedto92.29GBduringtheyear.. datawasRs.269perGBintheyear2014,the The next Chart 3.7 shows the trends between volume of average usage of wireless data per average revenue per data user (data ARPU) subscriber during the year was 3.18 GB only. and volume of wireless data usage (GB) per On the other hand, when the average cost to data subscriber per month during the last subscriber of wireless data sharply declined veyears. . toRs.11.78perGBintheyear2018,theaverage

29 Chart3.7:TrendofwirelessdataARPUandwirelessdatausage perdatasubscriberpermonth

95.00 9.00

90.61 90.03 89.18 90.00 8.00

7.69

85.00 7.00 WirelessDatausageperSubscriberpermonth(GB)

80.00 6.00 79.98

75.00 5.00

70.00 4.00 71.25 4.13

65.00 3.00 WirelessDataARPUpermonth(Rs.)

60.00 2.00

55.00 1.00 1.18 0.26 0.40 50.00 0.00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

WirelessDataARPUpermonth(Rs.) WirelessDatausageperSubscriberpermonth(GB)

AsmaybeseenintheaboveChart,theaverage Now,inthesameamountofmoney,usergets wireless data usage per data subscriber muchmorevolumeofwirelessdata. . increased from 0.26 GB per month during the The Chart 3.8 shows the trend of number of year 2014 to 7.69 GB per month during the wireless data subscribers, average cost to year 2018. However, the data ARPU has not subscriber for per GB wireless data and increased in the same ratio due to sharp volume of wireless data usage per wireless decline in cost to subscriber for wireless data. datasubscriberpermonth. .

30 Chart3.8:Trendofnumberofaveragewirelessdatasubscribers(million), Averagewirelessdatausage(GB)perdatasubscriberpermonthand AveragecosttosubscriberperGBwirelessdata(Rs.)

600.00 8.00 7.60

502.80 7.00 500.00

6.00

405.14 DatausageperSubscriberpermonth(GB) 400.00 5.00

327.78 4.13 288.06 300.00 4.00 268.97 260.42

226.30 3.00 200.00

2.00

1.18 100.00 75.57 1.00

AverageWirelessDataSubscribers(Million)and 0.26 0.40 19.35 AveragecosttosubscriberperGBwirelessdata(Rs.) 11.70 0.00 0.00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

TotalNo.ofWirelessDataSubscribers(Million)

AveragecosttosubscriberperGBData(Rs.)

WirelessDatausagepersubscriberpermonth(GB)

As can be seen in the above Chart, average tariduringthelasttwoyears,thevolumeof cost to subscriber for per GB wireless data data usage tremendously increased in the usage is showing declining trend over the years2017and2018.. years. On the other hand, the number of Declining trend of cost to subscriber for wireless data subscribers and volume of wireless data shows the intense market wireless data usage increased year-on-year. It competition in data services and data tari maybesaidthatduetosharpdeclineindata war in the telecom market. .

31 32 CHAPTER 4:

WIRELESS DATA SERVICE FUTURE

33 Thetelecomsectorisoneofthemostdynamic deployment of lightning fast 5G technologies sectorsintermsoftechnologicalbreakthroughs from 2020 onwards. This will provide resulting in improved consumer experience. enhanced connectivity not only to the Thewidespreaddeploymentof4Gtechnology individual but will also help in digitalizing in the year 2016 heralded a revolution in the various industrial verticals and facilitate the way Indians use mobile data. As seen in the vision of Digital India. . previous chapters the wireless data usage in 5th generation mobile networks (5G) are the India has increased exponentially since 2016 proposed next telecommunications standards coupled with a signicant reduction in the thataimsathighercapacityallowingahigher costofdatausage. Evenglobally,theworldis density of mobile broadband users, and swiftlypreparingtomoveontobiggerthings supporting device-to-device, more reliable, in data usage with the rst commercial andmassivemachinecommunications..

Chart4.1:Developmentofmobiletechnology-2Gto5G

2G 3G 4G 5G

SecondGeneration ThirdGeneration FourthGeneration FifthGeneration DigitalPhoneCalls DigitalPhoneCalls, AllIPService(including andMessaging MessagingandData voice&messaging)

5Gisthelatestiterationofcellulartechnology createacumulativeeconomicimpactofUSD1 thatwillprovideseamlesscoverage,enhanced trillion in India by 2035. . connectivity, high data rate, low latency, Ericsson has estimated that 5G enabled and highly reliable communications. It will digitalizationrevenuepotentialinIndiawillbe increaseenergyeciency,spectrumeciency, above USD 27 billion by 2026. Similarly, networkeciencyaswellaseciencyofother GSMA projects, after initially launching in systems. Besides providing faster & reliable 2020, 5G connections in India will grow to access,itwillactasaninformationductbuiltto almost 70 million by 2025, equivalent to connect billions of Internet of Things (IoT) around 5% of total connections (excluding devices. In order to create an enabling cellular IoT). . environment for timely rollout of 5G in India, TRAI White Paper³ on 5G highlights various Therearemanyindustryreportswhichprovide issuesrelatedtodeploymentof5Gtechnology dierent projections about the advent of 5G in India. . technology and data usage over the next few years. The Ericsson mobility report brings out As per the white paper, 5G is expected to be thelatestglobalandregionalmobilestatistics.. launched in India by 2020 and is predicted to

³TRAIsWhitePaperonEnabling5GinIndiadated22ndFebruary,2019 EricssonMobilityReport,November,2018 GSMAIntelligenceReport

34 Data Trac Per Smart Phone

Table4.1:DataTracPerSmartPhone Forecast CAGR** Datatracpersmartphone 2017 2018 2024 2018-2024 Unit NorthAmerica 6.6 8.6 50 34% GB/month LatinAmerica 2.4 3.4 18 32% GB/month WesternEurope 4.0 6.1 32 32% GB/month CentralandEasternEurope 3.6 4.7 19 26% GB/month NorthEast 3.0 7.3 21 19% GB/month # 2.7 7.2 19 18% GB/month SouthEastAsiaandOceania 2.7 3.8 19 31% GB/month India 5.4 6.8 15 14% GB/month MiddleEastand 2.0 2.9 15 32% GB/month Sub-SaharanAfrica## 1.4 1.8 9.0 31% GB/month Source:EricssonMobilityReport,November2018

Table4.2:TotalMobileDataTrac Forecast CAGR** Datatracpersmartphone 2017 2018 2024 2018-2024 Unit NorthAmerica 2.5 3.2 19 35% EB/month LatinAmerica 1.0 1.6 9.5 35% EB/month WesternEurope 1.8 2.6 14 33% EB/month CentralandEasternEurope 1.1 1.5 9.2 35% EB/month NorthEastAsia 4.2 11 39 23% EB/month China# 2.7 8.6 29 22% EB/month SouthEastAsiaandOceania 1.4 2.2 16 39% EB/month India 1.8 3.0 12 26% EB/month MiddleEastandAfrica 1.1 1.8 17 45% EB/month Sub-SaharanAfrica## 0.36 0.54 5.2 46% EB/month #TheseguresarealsoincludedintheguresforNorthEastAsia ##TheseguresarealsoincludedintheguresforMiddleEastandAfrica Source:EricssonMobilityReport,November2018 **CAGRCompoundAnnualGrowthRate

35 IndiaMobileBroadbandIndex2018publishedby NOKIAand'MBITIndex2018',arguesthat:

5G can support the Withincreasingavailabilityof Proliferation of OTT video is development of smart cities aordable VoLTE handsets further expected to boost and improve access to (VoLTE devices expected to dataconsumption,andOTT low-latency public services reach 70-80% penetration in players are expected to such as healthcare and Metrosinthenext2-3years), transition into production education in India. .operatorswilllooktoooad houses to develop original a signicant fraction of 2G vernacularcontent. . voice trac onto VoLTE. .

Operatorsneedtoconsolidate 5G could provide a llip to The next wave of growth their market position by the governments role in in Indian broadband market leveraging global learnings promoting Smart cities could come from the through deployment of mission,andlow-latencyuse untappedbaseof500million LTE-A / LTE-Pro and Cloud- cases for BharatNet bre feature phone users, who RAN to enhance customer network. . could potentially leapfrog experience. . from 2G to 4G. .

IndiaMobileBroadbandIndex2018publishedbyNOKIAandMBITIndex,2018

EstimatedDataUsageinIndiaby2020

Withtheamountofmassivedatabeingoered highly dynamic sector, any new technological by Telecom Service Providers, mobile data advance can upend the projected rate consumptioninIndiaisprojectedtoincreaseby of growth. . more than 200% in the next two years i.e. by Asperanestimate,5Gtechnologywouldoer 2020 (see Chart 4.2). The total estimated higherspeedfordatadeliverywhichisexpected wireless data usage may reach 100 billion to result in increase in data consumption. As GB per annum by 2020. The data usage was persuchestimate,anaverage5Gconnectionin 848millionGBin2014andithasincreasedto 2022 will generate about 22 Gbytes of data 46404 million GB in 2018. This projection is per month, roughly three times more than based on the trends in usage growth seen in the 8 Gbytes per month generated by 4G the past few years. However, telecom being a connections. .

https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/5g/nearly-12--of-global-mobile-data-to-ride-5g- networks-by-2022---cisco-study/d/d-id/749524

36 Chart4.2:TrendofwirelessdatausageandEstimatedWirelessDataUsageinIndiaby2020

120,000.00M

100,000.00M

80,000.00M Actual Estimate 60,000.00M otalDataUsageinGB T 40,000.00M

20,000.00M

0.00M 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Source:TRAIestimation)

Financialinclusion

Financialinclusionforpromotingequitableand adequatecreditwhereneededbyvulnerable sustainable development has attracted global groups such as weaker sections and low- attention in the recent past. The main focus incomegroupsatanaordablecost.Today, of nancial inclusion in India is to promote the ability of nancial inclusion to empower sustainable development and generate low-income population worldwide has made employment in rural areas for the rural it the core sustainable development agenda. population. . Access to telecom services, especially data C. Rangarajan Committee (in 2008) dened access, is a key input in achieving 100% nancialinclusionas,Theprocessofensuring nancialinclusion. . access to nancial services, and timely and

37 AcceleratingDevelopment individual should have access to telecom services at an aordable price. The report of Itisawell-knownfactthatlowertarishelpin the committee on Medium-term path on penetrationofthetelecomservicesintherural Financial Inclusion released by Reserve Bank and remote areas of the country. Aordable of India in 2015 recommended a low-cost telecom services and the consumer interest solution based on mobile technology can be aresomeoftheimportantaspects.Withintense a good candidate for improving nancial competitionamongstoperatorsinthelastyear inclusion by enhancing the eectiveness of 2017-2018, there has been a signicant fall lastmileservices'delivery.Coupledwiththe in data prices. For example, the price of Aadhaar,theUniqueDigitalIdentitySolutionof 1GB(4G)datachargedbymajorTelecomService India covering more than 93% of the Indian ProviderswasaroundRs.250intheyear2015. population,nofrillsJandhanbankandmobile Now,itisaslowasRs.5perGB.Thus,therehas accounts and Direct Benet Transfer to the beenasignicantrationalizationindatataris beneciaries' bank accounts and increased by competitive market forces. . access and aordability of Data Services has positively contributed to the Governments However, despite signicant positive Goal of Digital and Financial Inclusion. . movementinthewirelessdatausage,number of wireless data subscribers, tari and other Aordability related parameters, there is still substantial room for improvement in various telecom Theaordabilityoftelecomservicesalsoneeds parameters. . tobeseeninthecontextofincomespentbyan averagepersonlivingbelowpovertyline.Asper Tele-density theReportofTheExpertGrouptoReviewthe Methodology for Measurement of Poverty Outofthetotalpopulationof1.3billion,only submitted in June, 2014 to the Planning 578millionpeopleinIndia,i.e.lessthan50%, Commission by Dr. C. Rangarajan, the total have subscription to wireless data services. number of people living Below Poverty Line The wireless tele-density in rural areas is still (BPL) in India is approximately 363 million 57.13% only as compared to 155.49% in (36.3crore).Thenewpovertylineforruralareas urban areas (as on 31st March, 2019) which is nearly Rs. 32 and for urban areas Rs. 47. reects the rural-urban divide in terms of Accordingly,themonthlyincomefor28daysfor telecom services' penetration. Since, the such citizens for urban areas is Rs. 1,316 and number of wireless data subscribers are less forruralareasRs.896.However,toaccessdata, than 50% of the total wireless access theminimumtariplanavailabletocustomers subscribers, the number of wireless data is around Rs. 49 which includes free voice, subscribers in rural areas would be much SMSand1GBdataevery28days.Thisimplies lower. . that 4-5% of the monthly income (more than Inaddition,thereareafewstatesinIndialike a days income!) of such consumers may go Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, etc. where in accessing data. This is a considerable cost tele density is less than 75%. These states for people living below poverty line. All the present an excellent opportunity to improve stakeholders need to make eorts to reduce thetelecomservicepenetration. . thecostofaccessingdataforthiscategoryof consumer,asdataaccesscanhaveamultiplier DigitalIndia eect in improving the economic status and quality of life of this segment. . In order to achieve the Digital India mission of the Government of India, each and every

38 The introduction of 5G technology is likely investmentsintelecomnetworkinfrastructure, to change the dynamics of the market which allows fast, reliable, and aordable altogether.Thekeyfeaturesof5Gi.e.ultrahigh internet connectivity, would further lead to speed and ultra low latency along with the socio-economic growth and job creation in new capabilities will make it possible to use India. A recent report titled Unlocking of 5G for healthcare (tele-surgery), autonomous Digital for Bharat by Bains and Co., Google vehicles,automatedmanufacturingsoonand and Omidyar Network projects that if so forth. 5G technology will bring in both harnessedwell,thisunprecedentedgrowthin directandindirectbenets.Ithaspotentialto Data Usage has potential of $50+ billion in act as a catalyst for higher overall economic potential online commerce, unlocked through growthofthecountry. . newusersandre-engagingtheuserswhohave Growth of data communication systems and stopped; further impact manifold. . services would help in enhancing the Increasing access to internet and its economicconditionsinruralandremoteareas, aordability has empowered and would and spur new businesses by enabling access continue to empower millions of Indians by to markets by a large number of small and givingthemreal-timeinformation,Government mediumenterprises(SMEs).Aboveall,growth services, marketplaces and social media that ofdigitalcommunicationnetworkswouldalso will have a positive impact on their quality boost competitiveness, enabling innovation, of life. . andimprovingproductivity.Assuch,enhanced

WhitePaperissuedbyTRAItitledEnabling5GinIndia

39

Disclaimer

The information and statistics related to Wireless Data Services, contained in this compilation, are obtained/derived/calculatedfromtheinformationfurnishedbytheTelecomServiceProviderstothe Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI). TRAI has taken reasonable caution in collecting, compilingandpresentinginformationandstatisticsinthiscompilation.However,itdoesnottakeany warrantyorrepresentationsastotheiraccuracy,completenessoradequacy.Undernocircumstances shall TRAI be liable, whether by itself or by any employee, for any reliance, error, inadequacy, incompleteness,infullorinpart,orforanylossordamagewhichmaydirectlyorindirectlyariseout oforinconnectionwiththisreport.Thiscompilationdoesnotconstituteanycommercialorother advice. No warranty, representation or undertaking of any kind, expressed or implied, is given in relation to the information and statistics contained in this report. . IndexofChartsandTables Charts

Chart1.1: Trendoftotalwirelesstelephonesubscribersandtotal 6 wirelessdatasubscribers

Chart1.2: Shareofnumberofwirelessdatasubscribersovertotal 6 numberofwirelesssubscribers

Chart1.3: Technology-wisetrendinnumberofwirelessdatasubscribers 7 attheendoftheyear

Chart1.4: Technology-wisetrendofnetadditioninwirelessdatasubscribers 8

Chart1.5: Technology-wiseyearlygrowth(%)innumberofwireless 8 datasubscribers

Chart1.6: Technology-wisedistributionofnumberofwireless 9 datasubscribers

Chart1.7: Privatevs.PSUmarketshare(%)ofwirelessdatasubscription 10

Chart1.8: GrowthofPrivateandPSUswirelessdatasubscription 10

Chart1.9: DistributionofLSA-wisewirelessdatasubscribers 11

Chart1.10: LSA-wisenetadditionofwirelessdatasubscribersduring 13 theyear2018

Chart1.11: Smartphonepenetrationinsomeofthedevelopedand 14 developingcountries

Chart2.1: Share(%)oftechnology-wisetotalvolumeofwirelessdata 16 usageintheyear2018

Chart2.2: Technology-wisedistributionofvolumeofdatausage 17 (millionGB)andtheiryearlygrowthrate

Chart2.3: Trendofyearlygrowthinvolumeofwirelessdatausage(%) 17

Chart2.4: Quarterlytrendoftechnology-wisegrowthofvolumeof 18 wirelessdatausage

Chart2.5: Monthlytrendoftechnology-wisevolumeofwireless 19 datausage

Chart2.6: Trendofaveragewirelessdatausageperwirelessdata 19 subscriberpermonth

Chart2.7: Monthlytrendofaveragewirelessdatausage(inGB)per 20 wirelessdatasubscriberpermonth

Chart2.8: Comparisonofaveragewirelessdatausagepersubscriberpermonth 21 inIndiaascomparedtosomeotherdeveloped/developingcountries

42 Chart2.9: Trendofgrowthinwirelessdatasubscriberandvolumeofwireless 24 datausage

Chart3.1: YearlyRevenuefromWirelessDataUsage 26

Chart3.2: Year-on-yeartrendofrevenueofwirelessdatausage 26

Chart3.3: TrendofAverageDataRevenue(dataARPU)perwirelessdata 27 subscriberpermonthforwirelessdataservice

Chart3.4: TrendofwirelessdataARPUandtotalwirelessARPUpermonth 28

Chart3.5: Trendoftechnology-wiseAveragecosttosubscriberforPerGB 28 wirelessdata

Chart3.6: RelationbetweenaveragecosttosubscriberforperGBwirelessdata 29 andaverageusageofwirelessdata(GB)persubscriberduringtheyear

Chart3.7: TrendofwirelessdataARPUandwirelessdatausage 30 perdatasubscriberpermonth

Chart3.8: TrendofnumberofAveragewirelessdatasubscribers,Averagewireless 31 datausageperdatasubscriberpermonthandAveragecosttosubscriber perGBwirelessdata

Chart4.1: Developmentofmobiletechnology-2Gto5G 34

Chart4.2: TrendofwirelessdatausageandEstimatedWireless 37 DataUsageinIndiaby2020

Tables

Table1.1: NumberofWirelessDataSubscribers 7

Table1.2: DistributionofnumberofWirelessDataSubscribersin 9 Pvt.&PSUOperators

Table1.3: Servicearea-wisenumberofWirelessDatasubscribers(inmillion) 12 andyearlygrowth

Table2.1: VolumeofYearlyWirelessDatausage 16

Table2.2: Servicearea-wisevolumeofwirelessdatausageandits 22 yearlygrowth

Table2.3: LSA-wiseaveragewirelessdatausageperwirelessdata 23 subscriberperyear

Table4.1: DataTracPerSmartPhone 35

Table4.2: TotalMobileDataTrac 35

43 Notes

TRAI Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (IS/ISO 9001-2008 Certified Organisation) Mahanagar Doorsanchar Bhawan, Jawahar Lal Nehru Marg, New Delhi-110002