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CEE Market Monitor ISSUE III 2009 MILLIMAN MARKET MONITOR CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE LIFE & PENSIONS WELCOME 01 POLAND Welcome to Milliman's CEE market monitor, which provides MARKET information and analysis on the latest developments in the The Financial Supervisory Office (KNF) and main statistical office (GUS) developing life insurance have reported on the financial results of the insurance market for the first markets in Central & Eastern half of 2009. In the life insurance sector premiums written decreased by Europe. Focusing on Poland, 25.5% to PLN 13.9 bn. The fall is due to the sharp reduction in single Romania, Russia and Ukraine premiums which decreased by PLN 4.9 bn to PLN 6.9 bn. Regular we aim to provide market-level premiums were virtually unchanged at PLN 7 bn compared to PLN 6.9 information, drawing from local bn in the first half 2008. sources and our experience in these markets. Poland - Leading Life Companies H1 2009 Gross Written We hope you enjoy reading the Company Premium H1 09 / monitor and look forward to (PLN ‘000) H1 08 (%) receiving your feedback. 1 PZU Life 3,918,585 -46.67 2 ING 1,551,717 70.62 3 Warta 1,304,587 46.45 CONTENTS 4 Allianz Life 990,936 135.19 01 POLAND P 1 5 Europa 987,952 -3.74 6 Amplico Life 853,548 4.78 7 Aviva 818,744 -65.86 02 ROMANIA P 6 8 Nordea 638,970 -23.41 9 Uniqa Life 499,261 -4.85 03 RUSSIA P 9 10 Generali Life 451,513 12.77 Total Top 10 12,015,814 - 04 UKRAINE P11 Total Market 13,938,960 -25.46 FEATURES: Source: KNF, 1 EUR = 4.27 PLN SOLVENCY II: THE STANDARD IS NOT ENOUGH P 4 Single premium sales also have an important impact on the ranking of leading life insurers. Most of the growth for companies in the top ten is RECESSION-PROOF PRODUCT STRATEGIES P10 due to single premium sales which accounted for 80% of premiums for Allianz and Generali and over 90% for Warta, Europa and Nordea. index-linked PZU ycie Millenium Bank Aviva Allianz COMPANIES KBC Group Warta CEE MARKET MONITOR ISSUE III 2009 The issue of the underlying credit billion Zloty”. It would expect to premiums written, with the biggest risk exposure on index-linked receive this amount if it decided to revenues collected by life products has drawn the attention sell Warta. However KBC has insurance companies offering of the Financial Supervisory Office announced that the company index-linked products. KNF. KNF claims that the basis for plans to continue to grow and intervention is the Act on strengthen its position in the CEE During the first half of 2009, Insurance Undertakings in Poland, region and that only selected non- Pramerica reported PLN 77.9 m and specifically the paragraph on core assets would be sold in of premium written, 30% higher diversifying and spreading the Romania and Bulgaria. KBC than the same period in 2008. At assets covering the mathematical submitted a strategic plan to the the end of June this year, the reserves. European Commission in October company reported a negative which includes proposals for the technical result of PLN 1.7 m repayment of the emergency In 2008 PZU Life sold 70% of its compared to PLN 0.9 m a year funding it received from the index-linked products through ago. The net financial loss has also Belgian government. Millenium Bank. During the increased, from PLN 0.4 m to PLN second quarter this year, the 2.6 m in the first half of this year. The newspaper Rzeczpospolita insurer has decreased sales of Pramerica attributes the negative has produced a ranking of the 500 index-linked products and PZU financial result to the significant largest companies in the CEE Life's premiums from products investment into a new line of region. In the list of largest insurers sold via banks decreased by 90% business (group life insurance), as PZU is ranked in first place. The during the first half of the year. well as the development of new list of the largest 15 insurers Aviva has withdrawn from selling offices in Gdynia and Poznan. index-linked products while includes the following Polish companies: Warta (3rd), Aviva Europa has announced the During the first half of 2009, ING (5th), ING (6th), Allianz (7th), introduction of limits on index- Life collected PLN 1.6 bn in Uniqa (11th), Ergo Hestia (12th) linked sales. Other insurers say premiums, 70% more than in the they do not plan to change their and Amplico Life (15th). The same period last year. The largest sales strategy for index-linked largest competitors for PZU in the proportion comes from insurance products. Allianz has announced CEE region are considered to be sold via ING Bank Slaski, that it will continue to sell index- Allianz, Generali and Wiener especially from two index-linked linked products and it has not Staedtische. These companies products "Polisa Lokacyjna" and received any warning from KNF. are present in several countries while PZU only has subsidiaries in "Inwestycyjny Plan Lithuania and Ukraine. Ubezpieczeniowy". According to COMPANIES Rzeczpospolita points out that in vice president Tomasz Blawat, the 2008, the revenues from the insurer is planning to start According to financial journal insurance market in Poland cooperation with other banks. ING "Parkiet", the KBC Group has boosted the overall results in the is also working with Signal Iduna calculated an appraisal value for its CEE region. Insurers in Poland on the distribution of health Polish insurer Warta of “several recorded a 52% increase in insurance products. ISSUE III 2009 2 CEE MARKET MONITOR ISSUE III 2009 During the first half of the year the The subscription period lasts a assessment of index trends and company paid out PLN 1.9 bn in month and closes on 26 October. their strength. The strategy aims to claims and benefits (compared to "Bezpieczna Droga" guarantees a generate returns on the increase PLN 230 m a year ago). The capital return of 95% of the sum or fall of the commodity index RICI growth was due to the expiry of insured at the end of the policy Enhanced Excess Return Index, short term index-linked products. term. The rate of profit which invests in metals, energy The net profit for ING was participation will be set at between commodities and agricultural estimated at PLN 101.2 m while 64% and 90%. products. The application of the the technical result increased from above strategy has yielded PLN 111 m to PLN 132 m. Bancassurer BZ WBK-Aviva Life excellent results: in the past ten has launched a new unit-linked years, the index produced a 200% AXA Group collected PLN 243 m investment product "In Plus". This investment rate of return. in gross premiums during the first offers an opportunity to invest in half of 2009, nearly 70% lower 21 investment funds managed by Rzeczpospolita has reported the than during the first half of 2008. five fund management companies past performance results of unit- AXA Life collected PLN 223 m in (TFI) including Aviva Investors. The linked funds. Over a three year premiums (-72%). The result is due investment funds can be divided period, the best performing fund to the drop in sales volumes of based on their risk profiles into the managers were: unit-linked products, which following categories: equity, account for 67% of the company's balanced, stable growth, deposits, i) bank deposit based funds - portfolio. The company is still cash and capital protection. The Allianz Life, reporting a negative financial result minimum premium is PLN 5,000 ii) monetary US dollar funds - but this was lower at -PLN 16.73 m and there is no allocation fee. Fund Benefia, and compared to -PLN 34.5 m last year. switches are permitted at no iii) guaranteed funds - Nordea additional cost. Additional Life. PRODUCTS premiums can be paid. There are no surrender charges after three Over five or seven years, the Raiffeisen Bank has launched a years. leading funds were equity and new index-linked insurance mixed funds. The best fund product "Bezpieczna Droga" (Safe Open Finance has extended its managers (Aviva, Compensa Way) in cooperation with PZU product offer with two new index- Life and Nordea Life) achieved Life. The product is a three year linked products developed by an investment return of over endowment insurance. The Noble Bank in cooperation with 100%. Based on a comparison of investment return depends on the Europa Life. 100% of the capital unit-linked funds across all periods performance of BNP Paribas is guaranteed after a period of of time, the best fund was judged Emerging Infrastructure Excess three to four years. The products to be provided by Nordea Life. Return Index, which consists of are based on the Commodity Allianz and Compensa were equities in some 40 companies "Twister" strategy based on the awarded second and third place from the infrastructure industry. moving average used for the respectively. ISSUE III 2009 3 CEE MARKET MONITOR ISSUE III 2009 FEATURE: SOLVENCY II - THE STANDARD IS NOT ENOUGH " Not everything that can be counted counts - and not everything that counts can be counted " This famous quote by Albert Einstein succinctly indicates the complexity of the changes that are to be introduced by Solvency II. The set of rules known as Solvency II are complex and difficult (the first draft Framework Directive was introduced in July 2007 but was not approved until April 2009) so we have divided the implementation process into the following phases: PHASE I Definition of the 'Framework Directive' (i.e.
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