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Vienna Insurance Group ECONOMIC & STRATEGY RESEARCH 11 September 2018 English version only https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_resear ch_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a6MiFID53ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer II https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a6Information53ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer Update https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer Insurance Austria https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a6about our53ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a6offer 53ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer VIENNA INSURANCE GROUP https://trading.kb.cz/en/commentsanalysis/detail/a653ba49_mifid_ii_kb_research_offer We confirm Buy recommendation with new target price of EUR27.0 per share Buy Investment case 12M: The VIG business model is built on the Austrian insurance market and subsequent expansion to CEE countries, where it expects stronger premium growth rates. CEE has generated a majority of premi ums since 2008. The company is well established on Price 11.09.18 EUR 23.2 the Czech and Slovak markets, which together with Poland and Romania constitute the core CZK 594 CEE markets. The company’s mid-term strategy counts on an increase of market share in 12m target EUR 27.0 CEE countries through acquisit ions as well as organic growth, mainly with a focus on Croatia, CZK 668 Hungary, Poland and Serbia. VIG distributes its products through various channels, including Upside to TP 16.4% close cooperation with Erste Group. The ongoing mergers of local insurers should lead to Dividend EUR 1.0 CZK 25 synergy effects in the area of cost savings in back-office services. VIG is a well-capitalised Total return 20.7% insurance company with a solvency ratio of around 222% and an equity-to-assets ratio (11.7%) well above the peer group median (8.6%), which enables it to gradually raise Sector stance dividend payments. We believe the stock combines growth potential and stable profitability. Overweight 2018 results and mid-term guidance: Favourable development led VIG management to Investment type bring forward its guidance for profit before taxes (PBT) a year earlier. The insurer should thus EMG markets exposure V meet its PBT target within a range of EUR450-470m this year. We also believe the set objectives for 2020 are reasonable and achievable. 1 year performance Dividend policy: VIG offers a stable dividend policy, paying out at least 30% of net 30 attributable profit an d saying a dividend per share will track the profit development. We 28 26 expect the management to propose a dividend in the amount of EUR1.0 per share distributed 24 from this year’s net attributable profit, meaning a dividend payout ratio slightly above 40%. 22 Such an amount corresponds to a decent 4.3% yield. 20 08/17 11/17 02/18 05/18 08/18 Valuation: The fair value estimate is based on an average of a discounted dividend model Source: Bloomberg and excess return method. The target value was set by adjusting fair value for sector, Trading volume (in ths of shares) company and speculative appeal. I n total, we set a new target price at EUR27.0 per share 500 based on a fair value of EUR25.8 and adjusted for positive sector appeal. The target price is 400 16.4% above the current market price, meaning a total potential return of almost 21%. The 300 200 stock is slightly undervalued (traded at P/E 2018 of 10.3, P/E 2019 of 10.0, P/BV of 0.7 vs. 100 11.1 , 10.6, or 1.2, respectively) in comparison with the peer group. In our opinion, this 0 08/17 11/17 02/18 05/18 08/18 valuation is currently justified by lower profitability and a dividend yield. Source: Bloomberg Next events: VIG will announce its 3Q18 results on 28 November 2018. Share data Financial data (EURm) 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f Ratios 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f RIC VIGR.VI Bloom VIG AV Gross written premium 9386 9648 10027 10274 P/E act. (x) 10.0 10.3 10.0 9.3 52-week range 22.8-28.8 Net earned premium 8510 8710 9035 9272 P/E target (x) 11.6 11.9 11.6 10.8 Market cap. (CZKbn) 76.2 Financial result 924 1012 966 1002 Price/NEP (%) 40.7 39.8 38.3 37.3 Market cap. (EURm) 2972 Profit before taxes 443 462 476 513 Dividend yield (%) 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.1 Free float (%) 30 EPS (adj., EUR) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 Price/EmbV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m Dividend (EUR) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 ROE (%) 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.9 Share-3.3 -5.5 -5.7 Payout (%) 40.0 42.3 45.2 46.4 ROA (%) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Rel. to ATX Index -1.7 -2.3 -6.1 Embedded value 7741 7901 8141 8378 ROEV (%) 12.5 6.0 3.8 4.3 Source: Bloomberg The latest analysis and report: http://bit.ly/VIG_201703 http://bit.ly/VIG_2Q18res Miroslav Frayer (420) 222 008 567 [email protected] Please see back page for important disclaimer. Economic & Strategy Research Vienna Insurance Group Company overview Strengths Weaknesses ° Broad presence in CEE countries ° Worse profitability in comparison with peers ° Market leader in Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and ° Lower dividend yield Romania ° Strict regulations for some insurance products ° Strong product and service portfolio ° High capital requirements ° Decentralised structure and knowledge of local needs and markets ° Higher combined ratio in comparison with West European insurers ° Multi-channel distribution, including partnership with Erste Group ° Big competition ° Well-capitalised insurance company Opportunities Threats ° Strong economic growth in CEE region ° Increasing number of natural disasters and catastrophic events ° Monetary policy tightening ° Insurance fraud ° Potential growth of insurance penetration ° Inappropriate analysis of historical data and non-corresponding pricing model ° Tailor-made and specific products ° No synergy effect of cost savings after mergers of local ° Digitalisation of product portfolio and distribution insurance companies ° Higher profitability of reinsurance activities ° Failure to meet mid-term strategical goals 2017 Gross premium written (EURm) 2017 Profit before taxes (EURm) Combined ratio Health Health Claims ratio Cost ratio 6% 10% 125% 100.6% 96.7% 97.3% 97.3% 96.7% Life 100% 40% 75% Life 9,232 443 54% 50% 25% P&C P&C 36% 0% 54% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Note: excluding Central Functions and Consolidation Source: Vienna Insurance Group 2017 Gross premium written (EURm) 2017 Profit before taxes (EURm) Investment split (mid-2018, EURm) Romania Others Deposit Equities Others Affiliated 1% 5% and Cash 4% Companies 17% Poland 6% 8% 1% Loans 7% Austria Romania Austria Slovakia 40% 5% 42% 12% Real Estate other ∼∼∼ 9,232 443 6% 37,400 Poland 10% Real Estate Bonds from housing 66% Slovakia societies Czech Rep. 9% Czech Rep. 10% 17% 34% Note: excluding Central Functions and Consolidation; Others include the Baltic states, Hungary, Bulgaria, Turkey/Georgia, Remaining CEE and Other markets Source: Vienna Insurance Group 11 September 2018 2 Economic & Strategy Research Vienna Insurance Group Current development Results for the first six months of 2018 Income statement 6M 2017 6M 2018 +/-% 1. Gross premiums written 4,972.4 5,150.3 3.6 2. Net earned premiums 4,219.0 4,354.9 3.2 3. Financial results 488.4 511.3 4.7 4. Other income 59.8 66.3 10.8 Total income 4,767.2 4,932.4 3.5 6. Expenses for claims and insurance benefits
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