CEE Insurance M&A Outlook the Stage Is Set for an Active Deal

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CEE Insurance M&A Outlook the Stage Is Set for an Active Deal CEE Insurance M&A Outlook The stage is set for an active deal-making environment January 2019 Brochure / report title goes here | Section title goes here Contents Foreword 03 Number of M&A deals in the CEE Region 04 CEE macroeconomic overview 05 Insurance trends in CEE 06 Poland 18 The Czech Republic 24 Slovakia 30 Hungary 36 Romania 42 Slovenia 48 Croatia 54 Bulgaria 60 Serbia 66 Baltic region (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) 72 Contacts 90 02 CEE Insurance M&A Outlook | Foreword Foreword Leveraging on the success of our NPL Besides insuretech solutions, another long- and require further centralization on a study which provides an overview on awaited trend is picking up momentums regional level. This higher than average nonperforming loan markets in 12 market consolidation, which is driven by market growth potential, together with the countries across Central and Eastern non-core exits and acquisitive growth strategic repositioning of large insurance Europe as well as the very positive strategies to reposition business and groups provide motivating factors to feedbacks we received from the recently optimize economies of scale. consider trading on both the sell and buy launched CEE M&A banking study, we, side. Fortunately, a number of potential as a leading financial advisor not only Most of the insurance markets in the region players have significant war chests to being in the forefront of banking but also are still fragmented with a relatively high deploy for executing deals. in insurance transactions, decided to number of universal insurance companies launch a new study on insurance M&A with low market share. This implies further These trends are expected to drive further dynamics in our region. We do hope this consolidation as competitive pressure and consolidation of the CEE insurance market. study will also be a useful material for the difficulties to scale operations efficiently Such dynamics validate the need for this various stakeholders in the insurance M&A will require smaller players to rethink their paper and are expected to provide rich universe in Central and Eastern Europe. strategy in the region. content for it in the years to come. Recent performance of the insurance Potential investors are evaluating our industry in CEE has been reassuring, region based on three factors: i) expected gross written premiums are increasing future economic growth is still expected to significantly, with the largest contributor outgrow Western Europe and other more being the non-life segment and developed countries, ii) GWP per capita in Balázs Mérth geographically being Poland. The average most countries is still significantly lower Partner, penetration (GWP compared to GDP) than in Western Europe still indicating Regional Insurance Industry Leader, remained stable over the last three years higher than average future growth Financial Advisory with paid claims increasing the same time. potential; iii) in the same time the new regulatory requirements (Solvency II and These positive dynamics were fostered by the expected introduction of IFRS 17 in stable economic growth accompanied with early 2020s) make insurance operations improving labour market conditions in the more costly and capital extensive thus region. putting further pressure on profitability 03 Number of M&A deals in the CEE Region 2015-2018 2 2 2 12 7 4 5 3 3 5 2 4 2 Poland 12 Czech Republic 7 2 Hungary 5 2 Romania 5 Slovakia 4 Bulgaria 4 12 Slovenia 3 7 Croatia 3 4 Serbia 2 Estonia 2 5 3 Latvia 2 3 5 Lithuania 2 2 4 CEE Insurance M&A Outlook | CEE macroeconomic overview CEE macroeconomic overview All the 12 countries analysed in the report countries increased from 2.9% to 4.2% had positive GDP growth in 2017. The in 2017. The main source of growth was highest growth rates were achieved by improving labour market conditions across Romania (7.0%), Latvia (5.1%) and Slovenia Europe and low consumer prices which (5.0%). Romania experienced increasing led to growing domestic demand. Besides wages and decreasing VAT which resulted current positive economic conditions, in the boost of private consumption. In further structural reforms are expected in Latvia and Slovenia export activity and several countries to develop productivity, private consumption generated the above competitiveness, education and labour average expansion of the economy. As a markets. result, average GDP growth of the twelve Figure 1. Changes in real GDP, 2015-2017 9% 7% 5% 4.2% 3% 2.9% 1% PL CZ SK HU RO SL HR BG SRB EE LV LT 2015 2016 2017 Average - 2016 Average - 2017 Source: EIU Recorded unemployment rate decreased percentage point from 8.8% to 7.7% in in all the twelve countries in 2017. The 2017 due to the growing economies. Most most significant improvements were countries experienced a significant real posted in Croatia (-2.4 percentage points), wage increase on top of the decreasing Slovakia (-2.4 percentage points) and unemployment rate, which resulted in the Serbia (-2.2 percentage points). On average gradual increase of inflation. unemployment rate decreased by 1.1 Figure 2. Unemployment rate, 2015 - 2017 25% 20% 15% 10% 9.0% 7.6% 5% 0% PL CZ SK HU RO SL HR BG SRB EE LV LT 2015 2016 2017 Average - 2016 Average - 2017 Source: EIU 06 CEE Insurance M&A Outlook| Insurance trends in CEE Insurance trends in CEE The total gross written premium (GWP) GWP in CEE. One of the driving factors in the CEE region increased by 12.1% that led to Poland’s large growth rate can from 2016 to 2017. Every country in the be attributed to the significant increase in region recorded growing gross written motor insurance GWPs, which increased by premiums. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and 34.7% last year and this has been mainly Poland performed above the 9.3% average due to the increased motor third party growth rate. Poland’s 18.0% growth rate liability insurance (MTPL) tariffs. significantly overperformed the average growth rate of the CEE region, which significantly influenced CEE’s growth rate, given Poland has a 41.4% share of the total Figure 3. Evolution of the Gross Written Premiums in the CEE, 2010 - 2017 (EUR m) CAGR: 3.7% 25,000 22,367 CAGR: -2.4% 19,351 20,000 18,721 18,121 17,340 16,698 17,501 17,074 15,331 14,934 15,000 14,531 14,654 13,866 13,353 12,169 12,957 10,000 5,000 ― 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Life GWP (EUR mn) Non-life GWP (EURmn) Source: Xprimm In 2017, life insurance accounted for 37.7% of the gross written premiums with EUR 12,957mn, while non-life premiums accounted for 63.3% with EUR 22,367 mn. From the business segment perspective, non-life insurance experienced a higher growth, of 15.6% in 2017 from 2016, whilst the life segment only increased by 6.5% year over year 07 CEE Insurance M&A Outlook| Insurance trends in CEE Figure 4. Average annual GWP volume growth and GWP CAGR (2015-2017) 14.0% 12.0% LT; 74; 10.8% LV; 57; 10.3% 10.0% PL; 1,045; 7.8% EE; 33; 8.8% SRB; 60; 8.7% 8.0% HU; 194; 7.0% 6.0% BG; 60; 5.8% RO; 103; 5.2% 4.0% SL; 88; 4.3% GWP CAGR (%) (15-17) SK; 58; 2.8% HR; 31; 2.7% 2.0% CZ; 115; 2.0% (100) 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 Average annual GWP volume growth (15-17) Source: Xprimm, Intelligence Research Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of transactions In the CEE region paid claims increased by 17.0% from 2016 to 2017, as well as in the case of the GWP growth, the claim growth was mostly generated by increasing claim volumes in Poland. Figure 5. Evolution of the total paid claims in the CEE, 2010 - 2017 (EUR m) 25,000 21,511 20,961 20,192 20,000 19,107 18,382 18,491 17,870 18,042 15,000 10,000 5,000 ― 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Xprimm 08 CEE Insurance M&A Outlook| Insurance trends in CEE Figure 6. Evolution of the GWP and GWP penetration in the CEE, 2015 - 2017 (EUR m) 16,000 6.0% 14,000 5.0% 12,000 4.0% 10,000 8,000 3.0% 6,000 2.0% 4,000 1.0% 2,000 0 0.0% 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 BG HR CZ EE HU LV LT PL RO S S S Life GWP (EUR) Non-Life GWP (EUR mn) Total penetration (%), right axis Source: Source: Xprimm, Deloitte Intelligence Average insurance penetration on the CEE higher penetration rates. Romania also market was 2.5% in 2017. This average lagged behind the rest of countries with a is increased due to the exceptionally 0.9% rate. high 5.1% ratio of Slovenia. Furthermore, the Czech Republic and Poland showed Whilst the gross written premiums relatively high penetration with 3.1% and steadily grew in most of the countries, 3.2% respectively. Yet on the other hand, penetration did not grow significantly in Romania had the lowest overall insurance the region: average penetration stagnated penetration with 1.1%. between 2015 and 2017, while the GWP increased by 12.2% during the same Average life insurance penetration was period. Nevertheless, some countries such 0.8% in the region in 2017.
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