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The Rapture of the Geeks Separating Science from Fiction in the Technological Singularity a Special Report

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THE M A G A Z INE OF TE C HNOLO G Y INSI D ERS 06.08 WILL SUPERSMART MACHINES LET US LIVE FOREVER OR RENDER US OBSOLETE? THE RAPTURE OF THE GEEKS SEPARATING SCIENCE FROM FICTION IN THE TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY A SPECIAL REPORT CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE JUNE ISSUE OF volume 45 number 6 north american 06.08 UPDATE 13 GRAPHENE TRANSISTORS Forget carbon nanotubes; all the cool kids are studying graphene. By Neil Savage 16 WIRELESS POWER FOR SENSORS 18 INDIAN FIRM TRIES SUPERCOMPUTING FOR CASH 20 BUCKYBALLS COULD BOOST FLASH MEMORY 22 RADIATION-SENSING IMPLANT OPINION 9 SPECTRAL LINES Taking a hard look at the ideas informing the singularity. BRAIN SPECIAL REPORT: THE SINGULARITY EMULATION 10 FORUM for machine Views on personalized news, the intelligence 34 WAITING FOR engineer shortage, and obsolescence. is now under way. These THE RAPTURE 24 TECH SPEAK blue and I, Nerd By Paul McFedries yellow traces, One day a machine will blink into consciousness, and it will be human- [above] kind’s crowning achievement. But it’s just wishful thinking to believe formed in a that artificial consciousness could let people alive today escape death by DEPARTMENTS computer uploading their minds. By Glenn Zorpette simulation, 4 BACK STORY show excited neurons in a 36 THE CONSCIOUSNESS 60 SINGULAR SIMPLICITY 6 CONTRIBUTORS rat neocortex. CONUNDRUM The argument for technological How can we hope to create fabulism rests on baseless 25 CAREERS consciousness if we don’t know extrapolations. By Alfred Nordmann Denee Busby’s a singer, a dancer, COVER: anything about it? By John Horgan an actress, and a working electrical BRYAN 64 RUPTURING THE engineer. By Susan Karlin CHRISTIE DESIGN 42 THE SINGULARITY: WHO’S WHO NANOTECH RAPTURE 26 Every engineer should have a A scorecard of true believers, atheists, Tiny robots that can fix all our bodily THIS PAGE: PABLO DE basic grasp of marketing. HERAS CIECHOMSKI/ and agnostics. By Paul Wallich flaws sound lovely, but they violate the By Carl Selinger VISUALBIOTECH laws of physics. By Richard A.L. Jones 44 ECONOMICS OF 26 BOOKS THE SINGULARITY 70 I, RODNEY BROOKS, Apollo—a giant leap for computerkind. Humans could find themselves out AM A ROBOT By Mark Anderson of work if machines of merely human As our machines become more like us, intellect could be made cheap enough. we will become more like them. 28 If it’s Tuesday, this must be By Robin Hanson By Rodney Brooks Los Alamos. By Sally Adee 51 REVERSE ENGINEERING 76 SIGNS OF THE SINGULARITY 29 INVENTION THE BRAIN The science-fiction author who What you do know about patents can To David Adler, the human brain is just laid out his theory of the singularity sometimes hurt you. By Kirk Teska really advanced nanotechnology. 25 years ago answers the skeptics and By Sally Adee tells us what to look for as the world 30 TOOLS & TOYS slips closer to the edge. A plug-in device purports to protect 54 CAN MACHINES BE CONSCIOUS? By Vernor Vinge laptops from viruses. By Harry Teasley Yes, someday—and here’s one way to determine if they are. 92 SINGULARITY INDEX By Christof Koch and Giulio Tononi Signs of the singularity abound in books, films, andT V—if nowhere else. WWW.SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG JUNE 2008 • IEEE SPECTRUM • NA volume 45 number 6 north american 06.08 WWW.IEEE.ORG/ THEINSTITUTE AVAILABLE 6 JUNE ON THE INSTITUTE ONLINE PART-TIME PASSIONS IEEE members don’t just work all day. Some have intriguing pastimes, like restoring old Mustangs and singing and playing drums in samba groups. PHOTOS, FROM LEFT: STEVE PYKE/CONTOUR BY GETTY IMAGES; GREGG SEGAL; WWW.SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG Q&A WITH KAM BILL CRAMER AVAILABLE 1 JUNE ON SPECTRUM ONLINE AND RAY The IEEE annual election is right around the corner, so The Institute TWO PATHS TO decided to get personal with the two candidates running for president- THE SINGULARITY elect, Moshe Kam and Pedro Ray. MIT professor Neil Gershenfeld [left] and technology futurist Ray Kurzweil have Read about their most challenging projects, favorite books, hidden long worked at the leading edge of physical science and computer science. Today talents, and more. both believe that we are on the event horizon of a technological singularity. David Dalrymple, a child prodigy who claims both these luminaries as mentors, discovers that they came to this conclusion from two very different directions. ONLINE DIRECTORY OPENS DOORS ONLINE FEATURES: ALSO ONLINE: TO NETWORKING CAUGHT ON TAPE: Author Vernor Vinge, • Webcasts Ever wish you could connect with roboticist Rodney Brooks, and neuroscientist • Radio other IEEE members who share your Christof Koch expand on their ideas about • News interests? Want to find members who the singularity in exclusive video interviews with • Audio Downloads graduated from your alma mater or IEEE Spectrum editors Harry Goldstein and • Podcasts belong to the same technical society Erico Guizzo. • Jobs you do? IEEE memberNet, a new • Career Accelerator online directory, makes it all possible. MAPPING THE BODY ELECTRIC: Human • IEEE Xplore® Digital Library senses and body parts are increasingly • Interviews augmented by a stunning array of high-tech • Opinions devices. View our three-dimensional model to • More! gauge progress toward the age of cyborgs. IEEE SPECTRUM (ISSN 008-9235) is published monthly by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. All rights reserved. © 2008 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 3 Park Avenue, New York, NY 006-5997, U.S.A. The editorial content of IEEE Spectrum magazine does not represent official positions of the IEEE or its organizational units. Canadian Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 4003087. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: Circulation Department, IEEE Spectrum, Box 05, Fort Erie, ON L2A 6C7. Cable address: ITRIPLEE. Fax: + 22 49 7570. INTERNET: [email protected]. ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTIONS-IEEE Members: $2.40 included in dues. Libraries/institutions: $205. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to IEEE Spectrum, c/o Coding Department, IEEE Service Center, 445 Hoes Lane, Box 33, Piscataway, NJ 08855. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY, and additional mailing offices. Canadian GST #2563488. Printed at W224-N3322 Duplainville Rd., Pewaukee, WI 53072-495, U.S.A. IEEE Spectrum circulation is audited by BPA Worldwide. IEEE Spectrum is a member of American Business Media, the Magazine Publishers of America, and the Society of National Association Publications. WWW.SPECTRUM.IEEE.ORG JUNE 2008 • IEEE SPECTRUM • NA 3 back story EDITORIAL EDITOR IN CHIEF Susan Hassler, [email protected] EXECUTIVE EDITOR Glenn Zorpette, [email protected] MANAGING EDITOR Elizabeth A. Bretz, [email protected] SENIOR EDITORS Harry Goldstein (Online), [email protected]; Jean Kumagai, [email protected]; Samuel K. Moore (News), [email protected]; Tekla S. Perry, [email protected]; Philip E. Ross (Resources), [email protected]; William Sweet, [email protected] SENIOR ASSOCIATE EDITOR Steven Cherry, [email protected] ASSOCIATE EDITORS Erico Guizzo, [email protected]; Joshua J. Romero (Online), [email protected]; Sandra Upson, [email protected] ASSISTANT EDITOR Willie D. Jones, [email protected] SENIOR COPY EDITOR Joseph N. Levine, [email protected] COPY EDITOR Michele Kogon, [email protected] EDITORIAL RESEARCHER Alan Gardner, [email protected] ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANTS Ramona Gordon, [email protected]; Nancy T. Hantman, [email protected] IEEE SPECTRUM JOURNALISM INTERN Sally Adee, [email protected] INTERN Francesco Ferorelli, [email protected] CONTRIBUTING EDITORS John Blau, Robert N. Charette, and body paint, the two journalists Peter Fairley, Alexander Hellemans, David Kushner, Of Two Minds were conspicuous in blue blazers, Robert W. Lucky, Paul McFedries, Kieron B. Murphy, wing-tip shoes, and Ray-Bans. Carl Selinger, Seema Singh, John Voelcker e knew early on that the It was at Spectrum that Horgan ART & PRODUCTION lead article in this issue, began forging the probing, impious SENIOR ART DIRECTOR Mark Montgomery which describes theories style that characterizes his best ASSISTANT ART DIRECTORS Laura H. Azran, Brandon Palacio W PHOTO EDITOR Randi Silberman about how the brain creates the works. He did smart, tough pieces on mind, was going to be an unusual underground nuclear testing, arms DIRECTOR, PERIODICALS PRODUCTION SERVICES Peter Tuohy challenge. It would have to explain control, and biomedical devices. EDITORIAL & WEB PRODUCTION MANAGER Roy Carubia SENIOR ELECTRONIC LAYOUT SPECIALIST Bonnie Nani one of the most elusive subjects in Later, at Scientific American magazine, WEB PRODUCTION COORDINATOR Jacqueline L. Parker all of science, and it would also have where he and Zorpette worked and WEB PRODUCTION SPECIALIST Michael Spector to take a critical look at claims that were occasional hockey teammates technologists are on the verge of in the mid-1990s, he profiled scien- EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD Susan Hassler, Chair; Marc T. Apter, Francine D. Berman, Jan creating a mind in silico. tists, technologists, and philosophers Brown, Raffaello D’Andrea, Stephen L. Diamond, Hiromichi Executive Editor Glenn Zorpette in stories that were free of the defer- Fujisawa, Kenneth Y. Goldberg, Susan Hackwood, Erik Heijne, knew exactly who should write it. ence typical of that kind of article. Charles H. House, David H. Jacobson, Christopher J. James, Ronald G. Jensen, Mary Y. Lanzerotti, Ruby B. Lee, Tak Ming “John Horgan is probably the only “At some point I felt that I could Mak, David A. Mindell, C. Mohan, Fritz Morgan, Andrew M. writer who is smart enough, cranky serve science better if I were Odlyzko, Leslie D. Owens, Barry L. Shoop, Larry L. Smarr, enough, and skilled enough to pull it skeptical rather than reverential,” Harry L. “Nick” Tredennick III, William Weihl, Bas¸ak Yüksel off,” he remembers thinking.
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