EXCESS RAINFALL COUNTRY RISK PROFILE Overview of the Country

Population 351,706 GDP USD 1.699 billion Belize GDP capita USD 4,831 Total Built Exposure USD (Replacement value) 7.2 20 billion Belize is a country on the eastern coast of and is bordered on the north by , on the south and west by , and on the east by the Exposure . The exposure database Distribution of assets at risk provides count, replacement cost and vulnerability classification of different building classes and infrastructure assets at a 1km 2 granularity.

The map shows the spatial distribution of the assets exposed to natural hazards. The representation is in terms of Replacement Value (in M USD).

The graphs show the breakdown of the value of the assets at risk by occupancy class. Belize Hazard Average f requency of XSR events The hazard module of the excess rainfall model provides estimates of precipitation on a daily basis. These estimates are derived in near real time by a combination of both climatic-meteorological models and a satellite-based precipitation model.

The maps show the amount of daily rainfall that is expected to be observed in the country, on average, once every 5 and 25 years, respectively.

Hazard maps with r eturn period 5 years, for the country. Hazard maps with r eturn period 25 years, for the country.

Average Monthly Rainfall Jan 1998 to Dec 2015 300 Annual Average (mm) = 1407.83 250

200 (mm) 150

100 Rainfall 50

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

The graph shows the values of average monthly rainfall and the annual The graph shows the mont hl y average number of days with extreme average rainfall in Belize for the period 1998-2015. Excess rainfall events precipitation (over 50 mm/d at least at one location) in Belize for the are expected to occur almost exclusively during the wet season period 1998-2015. (between June and October).

Belize Vulnerability Vulnerability analyses Consequences of high -intensity rainfall are conducted to identify the consequences for the built environment when an excess rainfall event occurs. The model makes use of relationships between the amount of rainfall and the loss to the exposed assets. Historical Losses Historical economic losses During the period from 1998 to 2015 eighteen significant excess rainfall events struck Belize: seventeen were caused by tropical cyclones and one from a non-convective storm (named as flood in the table). The most destructive event was Hurricane Keith in 2000 which caused 16 fatalities. The overall reported losses in Belize for this event ranged between US$500 and US$800 million with a mean of about US$650 million.

Event Start End Hurricane Number of Losses Date Date Category Fatalities (M USD) Barry, 2013 16/06 21/06 TD 0 Harvey, 2011 19/08 22/08 TS 0 Richard, 2010 19/10 26/10 HU2 0 20 Matthew, 2010 23/09 29/09 TS 0 Alex, 2010 24/06 02/07 TS 0 Sixteen, 2008 14/10 25/10 TD 0 Dolly, 2008 23/07 26/07 TS Arthur, 2008 31/05 11/06 TS 5 120 Flood64, 2008 09/05 09/05 1 0.3 Felix, 2007 02/09 12/09 TD Dean, 2007 16/08 23/08 HU5 10 Gamma, 2005 14/11 22/11 TS 3 Wilma, 2005 21/10 21/10 NA Iris, 2001 04/10 11/10 HU4 26 200 Chantal, 2001 14/08 22/08 TS 0 10 Keith, 2000 28/09 06/10 TS 16 650 Katrina, 1999 28/10 01/11 TD 0 Mitch, 1998 22/10 09/11 TS 10 0.2 Saffir -Simpson hurricane wind scale

Tropical Tropical Hurricane Hurricane Hurricane Hurricane Hurricane Category Depression Storm 1 2 3 4 5 Winds (1 min sustained winds) ≤ 38 mph 39 –73 mph 74 –95 mph 96 –110 mph 111 –129 mph 130 –156 mph ≥ 157 mph

Central Pressure > 980 mbar > 980 mbar 980 -994 mbar 965 –979 mbar 945 –964 mbar 920 –944 mbar < 920 mbar

Belize Risk

Potential l osses

Based on the statistics of the historical storms and losses generated, the future excess rainfall risk in Belize was estimated using probabilistic techniques. The graph shows the rainfall - induced losses to public buildings that are expected to occur with return periods ranging from 5 to 100 years. The table below s hows also the long -term average annual loss due to excess rainfall events.

Return Period Loss (USD)

5 15,973,818

10 30,449,386

25 40,770,504

50 49,875,149

Average Annual Loss 8,455,199

St.Dev. Annual Loss 13,977,579

www.ccrif.org | [email protected] | @ccrif_pr | CCRIF SPC version 1.0, May 2016