Post-Asad Syria: Opportunity Patrick Clawson Is Director of Research at the Washington Institute Or Quagmire? for Near East Policy
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February 2012 STRATEGIC FORUM National Defense University About the Author Post-Asad Syria: Opportunity Patrick Clawson is Director of Research at the Washington Institute or Quagmire? for Near East Policy. He is the author or editor of more than a dozen books by Patrick Clawson on the contemporary Middle East and U.S. policy toward the region. he government of President Bashar al-Asad in Syria faces strong pres- sure from its neighbors and the Western powers. In the background Key Points is the fall in 2011 of longstanding governments in Tunisia and Egypt ◆◆ U.S. policy toward the continued to popular protests and, of course, the overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar rule of Syrian President Bashar al- T Qaddafi in a civil war backed by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Asad is partly based on the impact his rule has had in Syria. Asad’s military action. It is not clear if Asad will fall or if he will hold on to power. It fall might not bring improvement is fair to say that because his hold on power is sufficiently in doubt, it is well for the Syrian people. But the argument that Asad, odious as he worth examining what would be the strategic consequences if he fell and what may be, provides stability now would be the strategic implications if he is able to muddle through Syria’s cur- looks less and less convincing. rent difficulties. Moreover, given the many sudden and unpredicted Middle East ◆◆ Whether Asad stays or falls, the current Syrian unrest could have developments in 2011, such an examination should note which low-probability profound implications on the developments might have major impacts on the region and on U.S. interests. Middle East in at least four ways: the impact on Iran, Asad’s closest Would Asad’s Fall Be Good for Syria? strategic partner; the perception of the power of the United States and It is not clear how disordered the process of Asad’s overthrow might be or its allies; the stability of neighbor- ing states; and the impact on Israel. what would be the character of a post-Asad government. ◆◆ The more Asad falls on hard times, To start with the transition, there is the risk of a violent civil war. Asad the more Tehran has to scramble seems determined to rally Syria’s Alawite minority to support him by exploit- to prevent damage to its image with the “Arab street” and to its ing the real risk that if he is overthrown, the more than 40 years of Alawite close ally, Lebanese Hizballah. dominance over the state will end.1 Although the Syrian government prevents ◆◆ Asad’s overthrow is by no means the collection of information on the ethnic breakdown of the Syrian army, it is assured, and U.S. instruments to believed that the Alawites dominate the officer corps while Sunnis comprise advance that objective are limit- ed. The U.S. Government decision a much larger rank and file. If provoked, Sunnis could exact revenge on the to call for his overthrow seems to Alawites, who make up about 12 percent of Syria’s population.2 Thus, although have rested on a judgment that the prospects for success were the Alawites may not like the Asad regime, they feel compelled to stick with it good and the payoff in the event because of sectarian identity.3 of success would be high. The majority of soldiers in the key units being used for repressing protestors— RESEARCH CENTER FOR Strategic namely, the Republican Guard and the 4th Mechanized Division—have proved www.ndu.edu/inss SF No. 276 1 willing shock troops against ordinary Syrians. In the rest a fragile state, which might not be much of an improve- of the military, a few breaks have appeared: defections have ment for the Syrian people. An International Crisis been largely by individual soldiers rather than whole units.4 Group (ICG) report calling for Asad’s overthrow was Asad is also playing to anxieties about Sunni extremism blunt about post-Asad risks: among the Christian community; Christians make up If and when . the regime falls, Syrians will about 10 percent of the population and are important to have no option but to start almost entirely from the economy. If Asad successfully exacerbates sectarian ten- scratch. A weak and demoralised army, whose sion, then his downfall might come only through serious role in the current crisis has earned it no respect, intersectarian strife. Indeed, by November 2011, sectarian cannot constitute the backbone of an emerging state. tensions in Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, were leading The police are notoriously corrupt and unpopular, to multiple deaths each day and to increasing population as is the justice system as a whole. Ethnic and movements out of ethnically mixed neighborhoods.5 sectarian fault lines run deep in a highly divided Perhaps the best way to minimize potential sectar- society. With powerful and, so far, determined ian violence is to encourage a split between Asad and security services, feeble state institutions, and fragile key military officials including Alawites, such that he is social structures, Syria offers a stark contrast with overthrown from within and the old system continues, Egypt and Tunisia, where weak regimes coexisted presumably with at least some reforms and greater open- with relatively strong states—in terms of their ness. Nevertheless, the prospects for splitting the existing institutions—and relatively strong societies—in security elite from Asad do not look promising, which terms of their degree of cohesion and organisation.6 some take as an argument for why Asad’s rule, unpleas- ant as it has become, is better than the alternative. Just There are strong counterarguments to the realist thesis how a transition could take place is uncertain; equally that Asad’s continued rule, unpleasant as it is, is the only unclear is what Syria would look like under a new gov- way to prevent calamity inside Syria. It is hard to argue that ernment. Who would rule under these circumstances? Asad’s rule provides stability when his forces are shelling One possibility would be a coup d’état from within, more and more Syrian cities, with little discernible effect preserving Alawite rule. That could lead to a new Syria on protests, which resume at full force once the military that does not look especially different from the old one. shifts its attention elsewhere. Asad is already playing the The new rulers might well continue Asad’s long-estab- sectarian card and the longer he stays, the more likely it is lished practice of promising reforms when pressured by that sectarian tensions will grow. Furthermore, the protests popular protests, only to back away once the heat is off. are increasingly accompanied by armed conflict. The armed Even if the change in government brought new free- opposition operating under the name Free Syrian Army doms, so long as the extensive security apparatus remains has launched some audacious attacks and appears to be in place, the new authorities would be well-positioned to gaining strength.7 If the choice is between certain blood- reintroduce the old controls quietly and steadily. Since shed while Asad rules and prospective bloodshed if he a coup from within would continue Alawite rule, the goes, that alone is a good reason to call for his overthrow.8 old Alawite elite presumably would block any genuine Furthermore, even if Asad were able to reassert con- popular voice in the government and exploit Alawite and trol, it is by no means clear how long he could maintain it. Christian fears that democracy means Sunni rule that is Later, if not sooner, the same popular demands for free- oppressive toward minorities. dom and political say might well resurface. Suppressing If Asad’s overthrow leads immediately or ultimately the current protest wave might bring only temporary sta- to the collapse of the existing system, Syria will become bility, with instability returning at some point. A similar 2 SF No. 276 www.ndu.edu/inss argument can be made about any coup that would keep given the risks that the transition could be messy and the the old system of Alawite rule in place; perhaps it would outcome not an improvement for the Syrian people. temporarily restore order, but its long-term prospects look Asad’s Fall Could Have Profound poor. In short, it is not clear how to minimize bloodshed Implications for the Middle East and sectarian tensions in Syria, nor is there any guarantee that a post-Asad government would better serve the Syr- Besides the issue of what is in the best interests of ian people. the Syrian people, another concern to the United States The August 18, 2011, decision by the major West- is the international impact of Asad’s fall. The record to ern powers to call on Asad to leave office was explained date of Asad’s rule is an important indicator of what may as necessary because he had become a force for insta- happen if he remains president, but the changed circum- bility, as well as because of identification with the goals stances owing to the 2011–2012 tumult might cause a of protestors.9 To quote the opening lines of President shift in his government’s capabilities and intentions. Obama’s statement: Whether Asad stays or falls, the current Syrian un- rest could affect the Middle East in at least four ways: The United States has been inspired by the Syrian peoples’ pursuit of a peaceful transition to ◆◆ impact on Iran, Asad’s closest strategic partner democracy.