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Exploring intergenerational attitudes toward glacier retreat in the Chamonix Mont-Blanc Valley, France Marlieke Smit MSc Thesis in Environmental Sciences: Environmental Systems Analysis July 2019 Supervised by: Dr. S.B. (Bas) Amelung & Dr. J.V. (Jurian) Meijering Course code: ESA-80436 Environmental Systems Analysis Exploring intergenerational attitudes toward glacier retreat in the Chamonix Mont-Blanc Valley, France Marlieke Smit MSc Thesis in Environmental Sciences: Environmental Systems Analysis July 2019 Supervisors: Examiners: 1) Dr. S.B. (Bas) Amelung (ESA) 1) Dr. S.B. (Bas) Amelung (ESA) E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] 2) Dr. J.V. (Jurian) Meijering (Biometris) 2) Dr. R. (Rik) Leemans (ESA) E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Disclaimer: This report is produced by a student of Wageningen University as part of his/her MSc- programme. It is not an official publication of Wageningen University and Research and the content herein does not represent any formal position or representation by Wageningen University and Research. Copyright © 2018 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, without the prior consent of the Environmental Systems Analysis group of Wageningen University and Research. 1 Preface This study was conducted as a master thesis research project for the MSc Environmental Sciences: Environmental Systems Analysis at the Environmental Systems Analysis (ESA) chair group of Wageningen University. The topic of glacier retreat was chosen out of a personal interest in mountain ecosystems and the changes such ecosystems are going through as a result of global warming and climate change. Glaciers are an important element in many mountain ecosystems and they are under increasing pressure. Ever since I saw and set foot on a glacier for the first time, back when I was still a little girl, I have been fascinated by glaciers. Not only are they very beautiful, but also it is hard to grasp as a child how there can possibly be such large sheets of snow and ice even when it is summer, which made that I saw them as a natural miracle. Of course, growing older and wiser I learnt a bit more about glaciers and how they can exist, and sadly also about their vulnerability to climate change. Seeing comparisons of photos of many years ago and photos of today that show the large decrease in glacier sizes and hearing of dramatic events such as the collapse of the Trift Glacier in Switzerland in 2016 can really make me sad. That is how I came to wonder how other people feel and think about glacier retreat, and decided to use it as a topic for my thesis research. Through the literature review, I came to refine the topic further to looking at attitudes of different generations. I would like to thank my supervisors, Bas Amelung and Jurian Meijering, for their support throughout this thesis project. Specifically, I would like to thank Bas Amelung for helping me focus my research and refining my research proposal, and I would like to thank Jurian Meijering for his great help with the structuring of the data collection and analysis, and the statistics behind it. I have enjoyed working on this thesis project and I have met some wonderful people during the fieldwork in the Chamonix Mont-Blanc Valley, France, who have contributed to making my stay there an absolute joy. On a visit to the Mer de Glace, on invitation by some of the employees who I met in a bar. They kindly allowed me to see the new ice cave that was still under construction (left2 picture) as well. Merci beaucoup! Table of contents Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 5 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Glacier retreat .............................................................................................................................. 6 1.2 Consequences of glacier retreat ................................................................................................. 7 1.3 Adaptation efforts ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.4 Society and glacier retreat ........................................................................................................ 10 1.5 Purpose and relevance of study ................................................................................................ 11 1.6 Research questions .................................................................................................................... 14 1.7 Study location ............................................................................................................................ 14 1.8 Structure of this report ............................................................................................................. 14 2. Literature review and conceptual model ....................................................................................... 15 2.1 Literature review ....................................................................................................................... 15 2.2 Conceptual model ...................................................................................................................... 16 2.3 Generations ................................................................................................................................ 16 3. Methods ............................................................................................................................................ 18 3.1 Data collection ............................................................................................................................ 18 3.1.1 Survey instrument ................................................................................................................. 18 3.1.2 Pretesting the survey............................................................................................................. 19 3.1.3 Research population ............................................................................................................. 20 3.1.4 Sampling strategy ................................................................................................................. 20 3.1.5 Sampling procedure .............................................................................................................. 20 3.2 Data analysis .............................................................................................................................. 21 3.2.1 Preparing the dataset............................................................................................................. 21 3.2.2 Principal component analysis ............................................................................................... 22 3.2.3 Labelling and creating the component variables .................................................................. 23 3.2.4 Analysis of variance (ANOVA) ........................................................................................... 23 3.2.5 Non-parametric tests: Kruskall-Wallis ................................................................................. 23 4. Results .............................................................................................................................................. 24 4.1 Sample description .................................................................................................................... 24 4.2 Results PCA ............................................................................................................................... 24 4.3 Descriptive statistics of component variables ......................................................................... 27 4.4 Results ANOVAs ....................................................................................................................... 30 4.4.1 Follow-up analysis: post hoc tests ........................................................................................ 31 4.5 Results Kruskall-Wallis tests .................................................................................................... 31 3 4.5.1 Follow-up analysis: pairwise comparisons & stepwise step-down procedure ..................... 32 4.6 Comparing results: ANOVAs and Kruskall-Wallis tests ...................................................... 33 5. Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 35 5.1 Presenting and discussing the study outcomes ....................................................................... 35 5.1.1 Answers to the research questions ........................................................................................ 35 5.1.2 New research instrument: attitude survey ............................................................................ 37 5.2 Limitations ................................................................................................................................. 38 5.3 Suggestions for future research ................................................................................................ 40 5.4 Practical implications ...............................................................................................................