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Communicating Public Opinion in Post-Fact Politics: Biased Processing of Public Opinion Reports and Potential Journalistic Correctives

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Communicating Public Opinion in Post-Fact Politics: Biased Processing of Public Opinion Reports and Potential Journalistic Correctives Communicating Public Opinion in Post-Fact Politics: Biased Processing of Public Opinion Reports and Potential Journalistic Correctives by Ozan Kuru A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment Of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Communication Studies) in the University of Michigan 2018 Doctoral Committee: Assistant Professor Josh Pasek, Chair Research Professor Arthur Lupia Professor Stuart Soroka Emeritus Professor and Research Professor Michael Traugott Ozan Kuru [email protected] ORCID ID: 0000-0002-0485-1705 © Ozan Kuru 2018 DEDICATIONS I dedicate this dissertation to my family, friends, and colleagues as well as to the beautiful cities of Ann Arbor, Istanbul, and Bangkok. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am very lucky and honored to have supportive colleagues, collaborators, and institutions; without them the completion of this dissertation is not possible. I thank my all dissertation committee members, collaborators, colleagues, my students, my research assistants, and study participants with whom I interacted during my doctoral studies at Michigan as well as all my teachers and colleagues in my prior education. Aside from the sole authored studies, this dissertation is mostly composed of my collaborative studies with my advisor Assistant Professor Josh Pasek and Professor Michael Traugott. In Fall 2014, I took Professor Michael Traugott’s Media and Public Opinion course in which I presented a research proposal to study the perceived credibility of polls. This project evolved into a collaboration between me, Professor Traugott, and Professor Pasek. I extended the initial study by pursuing follow up questions and thus a series of studies emerged. In the collaborative studies, I came up with design proposals based on useful conference feedbacks and my readings of the literature, which were discussed and improved together in our team. I managed data collection and conducted analyses, and received feedback to improve analyses, then I came up with first drafts of the reports. I received substantive feedback and editing from the collaborators, we wrote manuscripts for journal publication efforts together, which continue. I thank Ali Carkoglu, Ali Tekcan, Amanda Cote, Ariel Hasell, Arthur Lupia, Aswin Punathambekar, Aylin Kuntay, Banu Cankaya, Barbara Opal, Belen Laspra, Ben Pearson, Bilge Selcuk, Bilgen Bilgin, Bilgi Gunay Kilicoglu, Brian Weeks, Catherine Allen-West, Christopher Gale, Christopher Skovron, Cigdem Kagitcibasi, Colleen McClain, Dam Hee Kim, Dan iii Hiashutter-Rice, Dan Lane, Darren Stevenson, David Sterrett, David Weaver, Donald Kinder, Douglas-Wade Brunton, Emily Saidel, Fabian Neuner, Faithe Day, Frederick Conrad, Hacer Kasimoglu, Hakeem Jefferson, Ipek Bilgen, Jale Onur, James Druckman, James Lepkowski, Jeremy Freese, Jeroen Jolly, Jessica Moorman, Jill Darling, Jon Krosnick, Joseph Bayer, Josh Pasek, Julia Kamin, Koray Ozsarac, Lauren Guggenheim, Lemi Baruh, Lori Maddix, Mathias Osmundsen, Michael Traugott, Nazli Baydar, Nicole Hentrich, Nojin Kwak, Nora Cate Schaeffer, Nurcin Caglar, Oguzhan Atay, Paddy Scannell, Pamela Bogart, Patricia Moy, Rebecca Ping Yu, Richard Perloff, Rick Arons, Robin Means Coleman, Sami Gulgoz, Sarah Erickson, Scott Campbell, Sedona Chinn, Seyram Avle, Shannon McGregor, Sharon Dunwoody, Shevon Desai, Sriram Mohan, Sonya Dal Cin, Stewart M. Coles, Stuart Soroka, Tarcan Kumkale, Ted Brader, Trent Buskirk, Tuba Suzer-Gurtekin, Yioryos Nardis, Yusuf Buyukdag, Zeynep Aycan, and Zeynep Cemalcilar. I am grateful for all the funding, scholarships, and awards in different stages of my entire education from the Vehbi Koc Foundation, Koc High School, Koc University, Fen Bilimleri Dershanesi, the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, the University of Michigan, Rackham Graduate School, the Rackham Predoctoral Fellowship, NSF-funded Time- Sharing Experiments in Social Sciences program, and the American Association for Public Opinion Research. I am also grateful for the Howard Marsh funds that Professor Michael Traugott contributed to the funding of data collection in two of the surveys. I am grateful to the Department of Communication Studies, Department of Political Science, the Survey Research Center, the Center for Political Studies at the Institute for Social Research as well as the libraries of the University of Michigan. I am grateful for all the professional, technological and maintenance services by the employees at the University of Michigan. iv I thank my mom, uncle, sister, and my wife. I thank Ann Arbor, its cold winters, its beautiful spring, the Arcade, and the Arb. During college, Sariyer in Istanbul was my second hometown. During my doctoral studies, Ann Arbor became my third hometown. I am also grateful for the coffee shops of Ann Arbor. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATIONS…………………………………….………………………………...………….ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...…………………………………………………………………..iii LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………………………..viii LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………………….……...xiii LIST OF APPENDICES. ……………………………………………………………………...xiv ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………………..……xv CHAPTERS Chapter 1 Introduction……………………………………………………..………………..…..1 Contextual Background…………………………………………………………………..….…….4 Why Public Opinion Reports are Important……………………………………..…………….…..4 Public Perceptions and Communication of Public Opinion Reports………………..…….……….9 The Communication Model of Public Opinion Reports………………………..…...….………...14 Aspects of the Message – Public Opinion Reports…………………………..………………..…..13 Aspects of Media Coverage of Public Opinion Reports…………………..…………….……..….22 Aspects of the Audience of Public Opinion Reports……………………………….……………..28 Individuals’ Assessments of Credibility………….…...………….…...………….…...………….30 Theoretical Background………………………..………………………..……………………….31 Individuals’ Bias against Unfavorable Evidence………………………..………………..............32 Knowledge-deficit Models vs the Sophistication Paradox……………………………………….34 Consequences of Biased Perceptions on Democratic Politics…………………………………….35 Mitigating the Motivated Reception of Public Opinion Reports…………………………………37 Overview of the Empirical Studies……………………………………………………….………38 Chapter 2. The Problem: Motivated Reception of Public Opinion Reports…………………42 Empirical Study 1. Biased Processing of Singular Issue Polls………………………..…………..42 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………42 Methods…………………………………………………………...……………………………...44 Results………………………………………………………………...………………………….50 Discussion………………………………………………………...……………………………...56 Empirical Study 2. Biases in Competitive Electoral Contexts………….………………….……..59 Introduction………………………………………………...………………………………….…59 Methods…………………………………………………...………………………………….…..64 Results……………………………………………………...………………………………….…70 Discussion……………………………………………………...…………………………….…..78 Empirical Study 3. Cherry-picking from Diverse Quantifications of Public Opinion….….…….82 Introduction-1……………………………………………...……………………………….……82 Methods-1……………………………………………………...………………………………...86 vi Results-1…………………………………………………...…...….....………………………….90 Discussion-1….…………………………………………………….....…..……………………..93 Introduction-2…..…………………………………………………………………………….….94 Methods-2…………………………………………………………………………………..........94 Results-2…………………………………………………………………………………………97 Discussion-2…………………………………………………………………………………….100 General Discussion for Empirical Study 3……………………………………………………...102 General Summary for Chapter 2………………………………………………………………..104 Chapter 3. How Can We Mitigate Biased Processing of Public Opinion Reports?..............106 Empirical Study 1. Methodological Transparency in News Reports……………………………107 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………..107 Methods…………………………………………………………………………………………108 Results……………………………………………………………………………………...…...109 Discussion………………………………………………………...…………………………….112 Empirical Study 2. Contextualized Reporting with More Data and Theoretical Information…...113 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..........113 Methods………………………………………………………………………………………....117 Results…………………………………………………………………………………………..121 Discussion………………………………………………………………………………………127 Empirical Study 3. Expert and Partisan Commentaries in News Reports………………………129 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..........129 Methods…………………………………………………………………………………………134 Results……………………………………………………………………………………..........137 Discussion………………………………………………………………………………………144 General Summary for Chapter 3………………………………………………………………..149 Chapter 4. Discussion………………………………………………………………………….151 A Summary of the Empirical Findings……………………………………………….…………151 Theoretical Contributions……………………………………………………………………….152 Biased Evaluations of Public Opinion Reports…………………………………………………152 Sophistication Moderation in Biased Processing. …………………………………………....…153 Alternative Explanations: Bayesian Updating and Expressive Responding……………………156 Deleterious Consequences of Biased Processing of Public Opinion Reports…………………..158 Effectiveness of Mitigation Strategies…………………………………………….…………….160 Practical Implications and Recommendations…………………………………………………..161 Limitations and Future Research…………………………………………….………………….164 Conclusion…………………………………………….……………………………………......170 APPENDICES…………………………………………………………………………………171 BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………………………………..297 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. A Typology of Public Opinion Reports…………………………………………………17 Table 2. Manipulation Combinations……………………………………………………………47 Table 3. Predicting the Perceived Credibility of Poll Reports on Gun Control………………..….51 Table 4. Methodological Knowledge and Detailed Reporting Analysis for Predicting the Perceived Credibility……………………………………………………………………………...……...…54
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