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Argus Ammonia Formerly Argus FMB Ammonia Argus Ammonia Formerly Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 18-39 | Thursday 27 September 2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY KEY PRICES Tampa rise keeps October outlook firm Ammonia prices $/t It was a mixed picture in the ammonia market this week as 27 Sep 20 Sep ± the monthly Tampa contract for October firmed by $25/t, fob while in India, the latest tender revealed a $15/t month-on- Yuzhny 335-350 335-350 34 month fall for November shipments. Middle East 350-365 335-365 t Production rates are rising at key supply hubs although SE Asia and Australia spot 340-360 340-360 34 most suppliers are tight and little spot material is on offer. In cfr India 365-408 365-408 34 Yuzhny, the supply outlook is expected to start to improve in East Asia (excl Taiwan) 370-403 370-403 34 the weeks ahead, but shippers are faced with higher freight Tampa 355 330 t costs and the potential for delays when transiting through the Turkish straits. For a full list of prices, see page 2 Ammonia price comparison $/t MARKET DRIVERS Tampa prices rises $25/t east Asia cfr Caribbean fob netback southeast Asia fob Middle East fob Yara and Mosaic have settled the Tampa contract price for 400 October at $355/t cfr, a $25/t increase from the September 2018 contract. 350 - hh FACT cargoes awarded at lower prices 300 FACT awarded its latest tender for two November shipments to Trammo at $393/t cfr and $388/t cfr, respectively. 250 Turkish delays affecting ammonia shipments 200 There are long delays in the Bosphorus strait with vessels 15 Mar 3 May 21 Jun 9 Aug 27 Sep taking around 5 days to transit through to Odessa instead of the usual 2-3 day transit time for mid-size vessels. Ammonia freight Petronas to load Indonesian cargo for Japan Loading Destination Tonnage Rate ($/t) Petronas has sold a cargo to a trader for delivery to Japan, Low High ± priced on a formula-basis, and will load on the Navigator Yuzhny NW Europe 23 46 58 t Glory in Bontang in the second-half of October. Yuzhny Morocco 23 37 46 t Ras al Khair South Korea 23 57 68 34 OPZ awards gas supply tender Ras al Khair WC India 23 25 32 34 Odessa Port Plant (OPZ) has awarded its latest gas-tolling Point Lisas US Gulf 23 37 47 34 tender to ETFX UK Group. Bontang East Asia 23 32 48 34 For a full list of freight rates, see page 3 30-60 DAY OUTLOOK View the methodology used to assess ammonia prices Discussions for mid to late October cargoes are understood at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback to be taking place at current market levels. Further sharp is always welcome at [email protected] price increases in early November appear unlikely. Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Available on the Argus Publications App Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39 | Thursday 27 September 2018 Yuzhny vessel line-up September Ammonia prices $/t Vessel Volume Shipper Destination Loading date 27 Sep 20 Sep ± Gas Cobia 23,300 Ameropa Belgium 4-Sep fob Clipper Venus 28,750 OCP Morocco 10-Sep Clipper Mars 40,000 Ameropa India 12-Sep Ventspils 339-340 339-340 nc Gas Snapper 23,300 Ameropa Morocco 16-Sep Yuzhny 335-350 335-350 nc Clipper Odin 25,500 Ameropa Morocco 20-Sep Gas Grouper 23,300 Ameropa Turkey + Tunisia 24-Sep North Africa 340-352 340-352 nc Total 164,150 Middle East 350-365 335-365 8 October US Gulf domestic (barge) $/st 300-311 300-311 nc Clipper Venus 40,000 Ameropa Morocco 4-Oct Caribbean (Tampa netback) 315 290 25 Gas Manta 23,300 Ameropa TBN 5-Oct Gas Cobia 23,300 Ameropa TBN early-Oct Caribbean/US Gulf spot 305-316 300-310 6 Wilhelm Schulte 11,000 OCI NW Europe early-Oct SE Asia and Australia spot 340-360 340-360 nc MaryCam Swan 15,000 Trammo TBN 15-17 Oct SE Asia and Australia contract 330-350 330-350 nc Yuzhny line up data is available to Argus subscribers here cfr NW Europe (duty unpaid) 385-395 385-395 nc EUROPE NW Europe (duty paid/free)† 406-417 406-417 nc North Africa 365-380 365-380 nc Yuzhny Yuzhny prices remain unchanged and a new sale into Turkey India 365-408 365-408 nc is estimated to netback to around $340/t fob, within our East Asia (excl Taiwan) 370-403 370-403 nc prevailing range of $335-350/t fob. Ahead of the closure of Taiwan 370-380 360-380 5 the ammonia pipeline on 29 September, pumping rates were Tampa 355 330 25 down to 220t/hr today with 180t/hr coming from Togliatti- Azot and 40t/hr from Rossosh. US Gulf 360 335 25 The ammonia plant at Rossosh is expected to restart in Natural gas the next few days but the producer is currently deliver- Henry hub $/mn Btu 3.06 2.94 0.12 ing volumes down to Yuzhny that it had in storage at the TTF month ahead $/mn Btu 9.88 9.41 0.47 plant. Trammo and Rossosh are currently in negotiations for †this price range includes a duty level set at 5.5pc a mid-October cargo to load on the MaryCam Swan but no final deal was confirmed today. Rossosh is expected to load around 40,000t in October on the Navigator Jorf for OCP and nia and $44/t for urea. The tender requested supply of up to the MaryCam Swan for Trammo. 60mn m³/month of gas commencing from the beginning of There are long delays in the Bosphorus strait with vessels October. taking around 5 days to transit through to Odessa instead of the usual 2-3 day transit time for mid-size vessels. Since 1 Baltic September all ammonia vessels passing through the Turkish Uralchem reports that the latest ammonia cargo loading this straits are required to travel in daylight hours with tug boat week from Ventspils is priced in the mid-$340s /t fob, but assistance, similar to restrictions previously in place on large this could not be confirmed with Yara by press-time. No Yara 40,000t vessels. The permanent change to transit regula- vessels were loading from Sillamae this week, but Acron am- tions will raise freight costs on all voyages in/out of Yuzhny, monia production is running well. with freight increases estimated to have increased around There are reports that some spot tonnes are on offer out $3-5/t on average. of the Baltic this week, with some sources suggesting that Odessa Port Plant (OPZ) has awarded its latest gas-tolling suppliers are looking to achieve $360/t fob or over, but no tender to ETFX UK Group. Contract terms on gas supply will new business was concluded at this level. be discussed shortly, but a tentative date for the restart of the plant is expected to be end-October/early-November. Turkey Under the new tender which closed on 21 September, OPZ Ameropa has sold 8,400t to Eti Bakir for delivery to Samsun has outlined natural gas processing rates at $32/t for ammo- on the Gas Grouper this week. The cargo is understood to Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 2 of 10 Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39 | Thursday 27 September 2018 have been priced at the same level as Ameropa’s last sale Ammonia freight to Petkim which is being delivered on the same vessel and Loading Destination Tonnage Rate ($/t) Low High is estimated to net back to a price of around $340/t fob Yuzhny. Yuzhny NW Europe 23 46 58 Demand from Turkey remains fairly slow otherwise this Yuzhny Morocco 23 37 46 week, with only Toros, Petkim and Eti Bakir actively import- Ras al Khair South Korea 23 57 68 Ras al Khair WC India 23 25 32 ing. Ras al Khair EC India 23 35 43 On the export side, Trammo loaded a full cargo on the Gas Point Lisas East Asia 23 87 98 Utopia from Gemlik on 23 September. The ship is destined Point Lisas US Gulf 23 37 47 for Jordan but is delayed near Dardenelles currently. Point Lisas NW Europe 23 44 56 Bontang East Asia 23 32 48 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA Gas Utopia in early-October. The vessel loaded from Gemlik, Saudi Arabia Turkey earlier this week but is delayed near Dardanelles Ma’aden is loading the Touraine at Ras al-Khair this week for currently. delivery to South Korea for Lotte Fine Chemical. Tunisia Qatar GCT will receive around 9-10,000t from Ameropa in early- Muntajat this week reports that its latest netback on ship- October on the Gas Grouper. The Tunisian producer is in the ments to India are $355/t fob Mesaieed. process of revamping its AN plant currently and is importing Production at Qafco 4 went down for four days this week ammonia for DAP production purposes only. Once the AN but the plant is running normally again according to latest revamp is complete the producer will require 23,000t every reports. 5-6 weeks. Jordan Morocco JPMC is scheduled to receive a cargo from Trammo on the OCP will discharge around 75,000t at Jorf Lasfar in the first THE AmmONIA WORLD THIS WEEK US: October Tampa contract Turkey: Vessel delays at Turkish South Korea: Namhae has settles $25/t higher on the straits due to introduction of new shortlisted 4-5 suppliers for month at $355/t cfr shipping fees its 560,000t 2019 contract.
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