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Published by Profercy Ltd Editor Clive Yearsley E [email protected] T +44 1372 386205 www.profercy.com PROFERCY NITROGEN SERVICE: SAMPLE REPORTS Thank you for downloading a sample pack of Profercy Nitrogen Reports. Free Trials All of the reports included in this pack were Free trials are available of all our services. If published between October and December you are interested in further information, or 2014 through the Profercy Nitrogen Service. would like a free trial of our fertilizer market Further reports were issued to subscribers reports, please email [email protected]. during this period. Alternatively, you can register for a free trial at The pack includes: www.profercy.com. A Profercy Nitrogen Service Forecast Published monthly, our Forecasts assess the medium-term supply, demand and price Our Offer prospects for key Nitrogen products. A comprehensive package of daily news and analysis, A Profercy Weekly Report detailed weekly analysis and News and analysis on the short to medium term forecasting reports – all for one prospects for Nitrogen products, as well as price subscription fee. ranges for the week (on page 8). Published every Thursday. Global fertilizer coverage and price ranges – covering all Front page analysis focuses on the latest major export and import origins developments, as well as short to medium term for Nitrogen, Phosphates & prospects for nitrogen markets. The following NPKs and Potash. sections address both supply and demand for both grades of urea. Multi-user subscriptions as The remaining sections provide expert analysis standard. of the latest developments in global ammonium nitrate, CAN, UAN, ammonium sulphate and ammonia markets. Access to industry experts. A selection of Profercy Daily Updates Short, to-the-point news and insights, covering key market and industry news. These reports are published on average once a day, with Access to historical Profercy further updates issued when markets are very Price Data – used in contract active. prices worldwide. The daily updates ensure that our subscribers receive timely updates to support daily decision making. All major market tenders are covered. W: www.profercy.com / E: [email protected] / T: +44 1372 386 205 Sample Weekly Report Price ranges are provided each week on page 8 23 October 2014 Published by Profercy Ltd Editor Clive Yearsley DEVELOPMENTS Global Urea Position From last week’s report: Buyers are still waiting to see the real price floor. P1 Granular urea prices bottom Fundamentals suggest this is not far away. out east and west It appears to have been a pivotal week for urea. It began with rumours that P2 Egyptian price dips and then Middle East granular urea had dipped as low as $310pt fob equivalent in rebounds Latin America and $10pt below a confirmed spot sale this week by a producer. Illustrating the fact that market conditions were not so desperate P2 The worst appears to be over for suppliers, an Egyptian sales tender resulted in 25,000t being sold at for Arab Gulf suppliers $355-357pt fob. This was followed by a further volume at $367pt fob. Also positive is that more Middle East granular has been placed in Europe and, while returns are not high, they are also not as low as $310pt fob. The real P4 Traders take a chance on level is closer to $320pt fob basis competitive freight. Another key factor for Europe awakening the market this week is that, again, US prices have been stable. The sideways move continues and although there is no rush for product, low P5 Indian tender announcement imports in November and December and even a slightly improving ag bolsters Chinese price commodity outlook are positive signs. In Asia meanwhile, Thai interest in granular is apparent with even Chinese material sold at $335pt cfr (below P5 UAN: Market slow but stable $310pt fob but not super low). On the prilled front, Chinese prices have moved up from $287-288pt fob at P6 AN: Black Sea product trades the start of the week for prompt (beating the tax deadline) to $290-295pt fob at $280pt plus for early November loading. Producers putting product in bonded store are quoting up to $305pt to cover minimum $8pt bonded store costs. In addition P6 Ammonia: Tight short term to the tax deadline, India’s announcement of a new tender closing 29 October has bolstered market confidence as, apart from Iran, there are no cheap alternatives. In the West prilled urea prices are holding with supply P8 Profercy Price Table limited in the Black Sea and Baltic, the latter due to heavy switching to ammonia at Russian plants. KEY PRICES It certainly appears that after a poor run the market has bottomed out and traditional price relationships have been restored. The question now is Prilled urea: $320-322pt whether pent up demand will afford room for a price increase into Q1 2015. fob Yuzhnyy $287-295pt fob China Granular urea: $301-320pt fob M East Ammonia: $600-610pt fob Yuzhnyy © Copyright 2014 Profercy Ltd All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 01 Despite the production issues, Sorfert is pushing contract holders to load granular urea. Urea Supply - West Helm is in the freight market for 4,000t granular urea Arzew-Spanish Med. Indagro has been the market for Black Sea 15,000t granular urea Arzew-Belfast loading late Yuzhnyy: NF has sold two 5,000t lots of prilled urea to October and also has 5,000t to load for another Algeria at a stated netback of $322pt fob Nikolaev. It destination. Yara will load 15,000t on the Polaris reports it has been bid at $320pt fob for 25,000t for Queen. Total October exports look set to be around November. DniproAzot resumed production on 20 50,000t. October and is quoting urea at a high $325pt fob. Croatia: Trammo is in the freight market for 9,000t urea Urea line-up: Trammo has 7,000t to load for Romania Sibenik-Sines Portugal loading 22-25 October. and 5,000t lots for Bulgaria and Turkey. Ameropa has Turkey: Chinese granular urea is being offered for re- two small vessels to load for Turkey and Italy. There are export at $330pt fob. One/two small lots have already no vessels at TIS. been placed. Tuapse: 4,000t of prilled urea will be shipped to Romania. Americas Venezuela: Nitron has a cargo of granular urea to load. Romania: Prilled urea is put around $340pt fob. Keytrade will load a cargo for Portugal. Baltic Urea Supply - East Business is slow with urea volumes cut by increased Middle East: Granular urea prices appear to have exports of ammonia. Latin American prices reflect found a floor. A 40-50,000t lot was sold by one $310pt fob or lower but with small volumes to move producer earlier in the week at $320pt fob with a producers are not considering these markets. second 25-30,000t cargo also placed. Salavat: The Salavat complex is still facing technical As regards netbacks for Middle East product from the problems. The plant restarted but new problems with a major markets, the US reflects below $310pt fob while compressor have forced another shut-down. Thailand is around $317-318pt fob. European netbacks Gazpromexport has 28,000t each of prilled and granular appear marginally better although the position is not urea for shipment by mid-November. This is not being entirely transparent with freight varying from a low of offered for sale until production resumes. $28pt to as high as $33pt for two ports. Basis latest North Africa/Mediterranean sales in the Mediterranean, European netbacks are around $320pt. Egypt: The Helwan sales tender for 25,000t of granular urea resulted in 20,000t being placed at $355-357pt High ammonia prices are influencing production in the fob. An earlier 6,000t sale to Agrium was followed by a Middle East. Qatar has cut urea production on one plant sale of 14,000t to Trammo for Italy (10,000t) and Spain in favour of producing more ammonia to take advantage (4,000t). OCI is then reported to have booked the of current high returns for the intermediate – latest sale balance 5,000t at $357pt fob. MOPCO has since closed $635pt fob, and to meet its contract commitments. a sales tender with one 4,000t lot sold to Trammo at Qatar: 30,000t of urea will load second half October for $367pt fob. Note that as this is below the 5,000t Bangladesh (contract). minimum volume included in our price range, this transaction has not been considered. Kuwait/Bahrain: Trammo will load 30,000t of granular urea for Italy and Spain next week. PIC’s Kuwait Egyptian suppliers are hoping that gas supplies improve complex will be on turnaround from 20-25 October for in November permitting a more steady flow of exports. 45-50 days. However, problems persist for now. The AFC plant is reported to have restarted but has shut again due to UAE: Fertil is indicating that it will have limited spot gas supplies being halted. availability through year end due to contract commitments to the USA and Bangladesh. Koch is Algeria: Sorfert has advised that all factories are down loading a cargo for Europe or Australia fixed in the high due to technical issues - 2 ammonia units and one $20s pt basis 1-1 for the former. Nitron has 30,000t to granular urea. The complex has been operating below load in late October. capacity for some time with the ammonia units struggling to perform consistently.