Argus FMB Ammonia Formerly FMB Weekly Ammonia Report
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Argus FMB Ammonia Formerly FMB Weekly Ammonia Report Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012 MARKET SUMMARY PRICE GUIDE Another price hike for October Ammonia – fob The market is still firming. In Yuzhny, prices this week have 6-Sep 30-Aug moved up $15/t on last week, with NF Trading selling the lion’s share of its October tonnage to Yara at $645/t fob. Ventspils $/T 638-645 638-645 While in the Middle East, the $705/t fob price achieved by Yuzhny $/T 625-645 625-630 PIC last week was further reinforced with a 23,000t sale from North Africa $/T 635-655 635-645 Sabic to Mitsui at the same price level. Current signals in the Middle East $/T 645-705 625-705 market suggest that no downturn in prices is yet in sight. US Gulf domestic (barge) $/st 670-680* 670-680 In the US, domestic prices are unchanged and movement Caribbean $/T 665 665 of ammonia up the Mississippi river has been slow in the aftermath of Hurricane Isaac and no new barge sales have AMMONIa – cFR been reported this week. 6-Sep 30-Aug In company news in the US, Orascom Construction Industries NW Eur (duty unpaid) $/T 675-725 675-725 (OCI) announced late yesterday that it will build a $1.4bn NW Eur (duty paid/d free) $/T 688-739 688-739 nitrogen fertilizer complex at Wever, Iowa, in the US. The North Africa $/T 665-680 665-675 plant will be built on a greenfield site in southeast Iowa to India $/T 680-690* 680-690 supply customers in the US corn belt. The project is likely to East Asia (excl Taiwan) $/T 725-780 705-780 be the first of a number of new nitrogen facilities expected Taiwan $/T 735-745 715-720 to be built in the US over the coming years, maximizing on Tampa $/T 705 705 the increasing availability of natural gas resources. OCI says US Gulf $/T 710 710 the new plant will be the first world scale natural gas-based *Indicative Price, ** all formula, *** old business, fertilizer plant built in the US in nearly 25 years. na - Not available MARKET OUTLooK: Ammonia prices remain firm, and buyers’ apparent willingness to secure volumes for October suggests that there remains considerable confidence in Highlights this week: the market. It appears that the NF Trading sale to Yara YUZHNY VS MIDDLE EAST FOB PRICE NF Trading sells 75,000t to Yara for October Middle East fob Yuzhny fob ▪ Yuzhny line up expected to reach 300kt this month 700 ▪ Sabic sells spot cargo to Mitsui ▪ OCP plans turnaround 600 ▪ ▪ US market slow after hurricane ▪ OCI announces new nitrogen plant in Iowa 500 400 Argus FMB Ammonia 300 View the methodology used to An Argus Media company assess ammonia prices at 200 www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected]. Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012 for October at $645/t fob will set a new benchmark for east to India. This will be the second vessel out of Yuzhny prices out of Yuzhny in the coming weeks. The wide spread over the last two weeks to voyage east of Suez, reflecting between Yuzhny and Middle East fob prices continues, with tight supply in the east, and the wide spread between the latest Middle East spot price now established at $705/t Middle East and Yuzhny prices. fob. The $60/t price differential between Black Sea and Middle East latest spot prices is likely to result in further The firm line up is currently 205,000t although two other Yuzhny tonnage moving east in September. Nitrochem vessels will also definitely be nominated: EUROPE Provisional Yuzhny line up for September Yuzhny Vessel ’000t Shipper/Destination Sept NF Trading today said it had sold around 75,000t to Yara Havfrost 38.0 Trammo/US 5 for October at $645/t fob Yuzhny. The price is a $15/t hike on last spot sales out of the port, and reflects continued Gas Grouper 23.3 Nitrochem/Morocco loading confidence in the market in the coming weeks. NF Trading Gas Columbia 23.3 Mitsui/India? *8 now expects to have only around 40,000t more available for October. Rossosh is due to shut for a turnaround next Gas Manta 23.3 Nitrochem onroads week for 3-4 weeks, sharply reducing volumes that will be Gas Cobia 23.3 Nitrochem *8-10 pumped down the pipeline to Yuzhny in 2H September. The Sylvie 24.0 Trammo *13-18 line up out of the port for September is currently confirmed at 205,000t but in total 300,000t is expected to load from Gas Providence 24.0 Trammo *16-20 the port this month. Nitrochem is currently accumulating Nordic River 26.0 Yara 2H product to load on the Gas Manta and Gas Cobia next week, and the trader also has some tonnage to return to NF Total 205.2 Trading this month. *estimated arrival Trammo has three vessels, the Havfrost which loaded yesterday, and the Gas Providence and the Sylvie, so far nominated for September, with the possibility of another The Yuzhny line up for August totalled around 333,000t: vessel at the end of September. Yara has nominated the Nordic River for 2H September, and will also load the Marigola from the port later in the month. Last month Yara Final Yuzhny line up for August purchased only 35,000t from NF Trading at around $630/t Vessel ’000t Shipper/Destination August fob - so the Nordic River and the Marigola may be all the vessels Yara needs for Yuzhny this month. Mitsui will load Gas Snapper 23.3 Nitrochem/Tunisia 5 the 23,000t purchased from NF Trading last month on the Gas Manta 23.3 Nitrochem/Belgium 8 Gas Columbia this weekend. The vessel is expected to head Gas Grouper 23.3 Nitrochem/Morocco 12 YUZHNY, VENTSPILS AND NWE PRICE Nordic River 26.0 Yara/France 13 Clipper Orion 39.9 Koch/US Gulf 15 Yuzhny fob Ventspils fob NWE cfr 750 Gas Snapper 23.3 Nitrochem/Belgium 18 Havis 37.9 Koch/US 21 700 Gas Cobia 23.3 Nitrochem/Tunis+Turk 22 650 Sylvie 23.4 Trammo/Turk+Moroc 23 Pacific 40.0 Yara/S Korea(Mitsubishi) 27 600 Marigola 9.5 Yara/ Israel 28 Clipper Mars 40.0 Nitrochem/US 31 550 Total 333.2 500 Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 2 of 7 Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012 Baltic Saudi Arabia The Baltic price is assessed at $638-645/t fob, with further Sabic has sold a 23,000t cargo to Mitsui for 2H Septem- price increases likely following the increase in the Yuzhny ber loading at $705/t fob this week. The producer also price to $645/t fob for October, which is likely to mean a this week confirmed that it has confirmed its annual rise in the Ventspils price to $650-655/t fob imminently. supply agreement with SFC, Korea. The agreement is for 300,000tpa in 2013. Yara reported last week that aside from its usual contractual volumes for September, it had purchased a further 16,000t from various suppliers for September The latest loading schedule from KSA is as follows: loading at an average price of just below $640/t fob. Uralchem last week said it sold 7,000t to an unnamed Jubail and RAK loading schedule buyer at $645/t fob for September and expected to achieve Vessel Date Loadport Qty MT Destination $650/t fob on its next spot sales. Rose Gas 14-Sep Jubail 23,000 East Asia Belgium BASF imported an additional 30,000t it is estimated in Brussels 16-Sep Ras al-Khair 23,000 WC India recent weeks due to technical problems at its ammonia plant in Antwerp. The plant is expected to be restarted next week. Gas Oriental 25-Sep Jubail 23,000 Spot MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA Camberly 27-Sep Ras al-Khair 23,000 WC India Egypt OCI EBIC loaded the Tobolsk yesterday from Ain Sokhna for Al-Jabirah 6-Oct Jubail 23,000 East Asia Trammo for delivery to Indonesia and Australia. OCI-EBIC expects to load 1-2 more shipments in September, with the Al-Barrah 8-Oct Ras al-Khair 23,000 East Asia next vessel expected to be the Tomsk for a delivery to the east. Morocco Sabic’s latest shipment on the al-Barrah, which loaded this OCP has confirmed that it will take a planned rolling turn- week for UBE, Thailand has been priced at around $725/t around at the Jorf Lasfar complex reducing DAP/MAP pro- cfr. duction to 260-270,000t/month through to the end of the year. The producer is scheduled to receive two shipments of ammonia from Nitrochem in September/early October out Qatar of Yuzhny. Qafco still has limited surplus ammonia and continues to use all of its surplus availability to cover contractual obligations. INDIA, FAR EAST AND MIDDLE EAST PRICE Iran India cfr Far east cfr Middle East fob PCCI reports that it has stocks of ammonia at the Pardis 800 plants at BIK but there are no vessels currently available which are insured to load out of Iran, other than those 750 operated out of Assaluyeh by Raintrade. 700 ASIA/INDIAN SUBCONTINENT 650 600 Vietnam Mitsui will deliver the 7,000t cargo it was awarded at $780/t 550 cfr last week to Vinachem on the Gas Millennium in late-Sep- tember.