Singapore Market Focus
Singapore Supplementary Budget
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
DBS Group Research . Equity
27 Mar 2020
Unprecedented anti-viral boost
STI : 2,487.56
••
Dishing out total handouts of S$55bn, a whopping 11% of GDP Significant cost savings of 4% cushions STI earnings decline to 5% for 2020F
Analyst
Janice CHUA +65 6682 3692; [email protected]
••
Booster shot to Aviation-related, hospitality and retail sectors Key beneficiaries are SATS, SIA Engineering, Genting, Starhub, MINT, UOB, OCBC
Kee Yan YEO, CMT +65 6682 3706; [email protected] Andy SIM, CFA +65 6682 3718; [email protected] Singapore Research Team; [email protected]
Dipping into reserves for an unprecedented relief package. The
government’s relief package of S$48bn is generous and timely, blowing
market expectations. Including February’s Care and Share package of
S$6bn, the total handout of S$55bn represents an unprecedented 11% of GDP, and more than double the relief package of S$20.5bn dished out during the Global Financial Crisis. Aimed at saving jobs and supporting industries, this will cushion the recessionary impact as Singaporeans brave through this dark period. The impact is broad based, benefiting both consumers and corporates.
Key Indices
Current
2,487.56
244.02
1.43 445 676
% Chng
- STI Index
- -0.7%
4.5% -0.1%
FS Small Cap Index USD/SGD Curncy Daily Volume (m) Daily Turnover (S$m)
- Daily Turnover (US$m)
- 473
Lifeline for aviation-related and hospitality industries, which are directly hit
by COVID-19. The absence of tourists with several countries in lockdown
mode and Singapore in ‘quarantine’ stage put these industries in dire
straits. The proposed wage subsidies of 75% for the aviation sector under Jobs Support Scheme (JSS) will preserve jobs as well as help to keep these companies in survival mode despite the loss of revenue for a few months. Total estimated cost savings for aviation-related industry is estimated at
S$574m or 20% of Industrial sector’s net earnings.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Market Key Data
- (%)
- EPS Gth
(0.4) (7.3)
Div Yield
5.4 5.3
2019 2020F
- 2021F
- 13.6
- 5.3
- (x)
- PER
11.4 12.2 10.8
EV/EBITDA
11.8
Shot in the arm for the economy, more property rebates. The thrust of the
package is to save jobs and improve livelihoods. This will be positive for banks, reducing the risks of provisions spiking up. In addition, banks will enjoy cost savings of 2% from JSS. In the property sector, property tax rebates work out to about 1 month of rent for retail landlords and hospitality landlords (c.9% of revenues) and 10 days of rent for commercial and industrial landlords. The various expanded job schemes, loan programmes and deferment of income taxes for companies will improve business cash flows especially for firms in the industrial and offices properties sectors. This will benefit most landlords, but we see industrial REITs benefiting the most. Among the industrial landlords, we believe Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT), with a large exposure to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), will be a key beneficiary.
2019 2020F 2021F
12.4 10.6
Beneficiaries
12-mth Target
S$
Price S$
Mkt Cap US$m
Performance (%) 3 mth 12 mth Rating
Mapletree Industrial
2.35 3,614 3.00 (8.9) 13.0 BUY
Genting Spore 0.62 5,181 0.80 (33.9) (39.7) BUY SATS Ltd SIA Engrg Singapore
- 3.32 2,594 2.66 (34.4) (34.9)
- FV
- na
- 1.88 1,472
- na (33.3) (21.7)
Cost savings significant at 4% for STI stocks, cushioning earnings drop.
We estimate the relief package will lead to cost savings culminating to 4% for STI stocks, arising from JSS subsidies for labour intensive industries and those hit by COVID-19. This should help to cushion our earnings decline projection for FY20F to -5% from -9%. Besides the specific measures to lift the aviation sector that will benefit companies like SATS and SIA Engineering (SIE), other key beneficiaries with more than 5% uplift to net earnings are Starhub and Genting. The relief package will sustain the economy and build resilience in the system. Banks, as proxies to the economy, will be key beneficiaries, the impact of wage subsidies amounting to 2% of net profits.
6.50 5,382 3.04 6,618 1.32 1,597 1.40 (6.4) (12.6) BUY 8.75 26,907 8.60 (20.0) (20.7) HOLD
19.73 22,999 19.00 (25.3) (21.1) HOLD na (66.5) (68.3) na (22.7) (19.2) na na
Airlines ST Engrg StarHub OCBC Bank UOB
Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Closing price as of 26 Mar 2020
ed: JS/ sa: DT, PY, CS
Market Focus
Extraordinary S$48bn Resilience Budget to Fight COVID-19.
The DPM and Finance Minister, Mr Heng Swee Kiat, delivered a Resilience Budget in Singapore Parliament response to the challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. This comes just 5 weeks after the Singapore 2020 Budget.
Enhanced Jobs Support Scheme (JSS) amounts to S$13.7bn. One of the key thrusts is to ensure that the livelihoods of residents are protected. The government is enhancing the Jobs Support Scheme and will provide employers a 25% cash grant (up from 8% previously announced on 18 Feb) on the gross monthly salary of each employee for nine months. This is increased from three months previously.
The overall supplementary budget amounts to S$48bn and coupled with the S$6bn Care and Support package announced on 18 Feb 2020, the total committed amount to fight against COVID-19 pandemic totals S$55bn, representing 11% of Singapore’s GDP.
Aviation and Food Services receive additional JSS. For the aviation and tourism-related, and food services sector, which are directly and deeply impacted by the virus outbreak, the JSS will support 75% and 50% of the first S$4,600 of
employees’ gross monthly wages for 9 months.
The focus of this S$48bn Resilience Budget rests on three
- key objectives:
- Further to that, the aviation sector will also receive S$350m
support under the Aviation Support Package to provide cost relief for the sector as well as to maintain some level of air connectivity to allow Singaporeans to return.
1. 2. 3.
Support Workers, Protect Livelihoods Stabilise and Support Businesses Build Resilience
This Supplementary Budget is unprecedented and far larger than the S$20.5bn Package during the Global Financial Crisis. The government is expected to draw on S$17bn of
the nation’s past reserves.
Impact on STI index earnings
Impact on Straits Times Index component stocks Prior to the supplementary budget we had expected earnings of STI component stocks to contract by 9% y-o-y in FY20F. With the supplementary budget leading to significant cost savings amounting to 4% for STI stocks, we now expect STI component stocks to register 5% y-o-y earnings contraction.
The key thrust of this supplementary budget is to save jobs and provide support to businesses, particularly those industries deeply impacted by the outbreak. These include aviation and travel-related, hospitality, transport and food services sectors.
DBS: estimated uplift of c.4% to FY20F EPS arising from Singapore Resilience Budget Measures
- Sector
- 2019 Net Earnings S$m
Banks Real Estate
15,565
4,437 3,287 2,901 2,533 2,001 1,733
391
Consumer Staples Industrials Communication Services Consumer Discretionary REITs Financial Information Technology
Grand Total
363
33,212
FY20 net earnings forecast before budget FY20 net earnings forecast after budget FY20 EPS change before supplementary budget FY20 EPS change after supplementary budget
30,256 31,551
-8.9% -5.0%
Source: DBS Bank estimates’
Page 2
Market Focus
Resilience Budget and impact on sectors
Est. benefit
(S$m)
- Beneficiaries
- Measures
Aviation
- SIA
- (1) Estimate 17,500 employees qualify for wage support - $380m
(2) Extension of 100% rebate on parking charges at Changi Airport until 31 Oct20 (prev. 31 Jul)
380
- 101
- SATS
- (1) Estimate >7,000 Singaporeans and PRs qualify for wage support - $96m
(2) Property tax rebate est. <$5m (3) Licensing rebates and other ground handlers and cargo agent rebates
SIA Eng
(1) Cost savings of about S$84m accruing to SIE for FY21, which is around 17% of last year’s wage bill
(2) Expect earnings to decline by 16% (prev >21%) in FY21
At least 28
70
(1) Costs savings of about S$70m from wage support for around 7,000 staff in Singapore
ST Eng
Hospitality
- Genting
- (1) Expect 8,750 employees to qualify for wage support – S$150m
(2) 60% property tax rebate translates into an additional S$20m of cost savings (3) S$90m earmarked for tourism recovery efforts will help to support top line
180
Banks
(1) Enterprise Financing Scheme (EFS) - Trade Loan: Increase maximum loan quantum from $5 m to $10 m, Government's risk-share increases from up to 70%, to 80%.
(2) Increase subsidies to businesses for loan insurance premiums under the Loan Insurance Scheme, from
50% to 80%.
(3) Expand the Temporary Bridging Loan Programme (TBLP) to all enterprises, and increase the maximum supported loan from $1 m to $5 m.
UOB, OCBC
310
(4) SMEs that require support beyond the TBLP can continue to tap the EFS - SME Working Capital Loan. (5) Jobs Support Scheme and Wage Credit scheme
Food service
(1) Enhanced Jobs Support Scheme for Food Service from 8% to 50%, up to S$4,600 gross monthly wage for 9 months, from 3 months previously
Sheng Siong, DFI, Koufu
- Jumbo
- (2) Enhanced Grocery Vouchers for Singaporeans living in 1- or 2-room flats worth $300 from $100
Land transport
ComfortDelgro Telco
(1) Estimate 7,000 employees qualify for Jobs Support Scheme (2) Help to defray costs of growing idle fleet; to pass on benefit to taxi drivers
Starhub Singtel
13
65-70
(1) Enhanced Jobs Support Scheme of 25% from 8%, up to S$4,600 gross monthly wage for 9 months, from 3 months previously
Property
(1) Property tax rebate at 100% for Hospitality and Retail, and 30% for other Commercial properties, up from 30% and 15%, respectively
Various
(2) Enhanced rental waivers of 2 months for commercial and non-residential tenants in government properties property companies,
(3) Overall impact positive for REITs as it limits potential downside to DPUs; property companies savings will step the dip in income as recurring incomes dip in 2020.
Source: Ministry of Finance, DBS Bank
Page 3
Market Focus
Sector and related company impact/ commentaries
The related supplementary measures and impact on the various sectors/ companies are detailed as follows:
Aviation-related (Paul YONG, Suvro SARKAR, Alfie YEO)
This is significantly a higher level of support than the
•
Singapore Airlines: SIA Group employs over 27,000 people (based on their latest annual report) and the enhanced Jobs Support Scheme will help to defray a significant portion of its staff costs, which make up a large portion of
the Group’s fixed cash costs. Assuming a dependency
ratio of 35%, SIA would be eligible to obtain wage support for over 17,500 of its staff and assuming 70% of the full benefit on average will flow through for SIA, this could amount to over S$42m a month or c.S$380m in support for SIA over 9 months.
S$18-20m in jobs credit scheme grants received in FY09/10 post-GFC, and is likely commensurate with the massive impact to air travel expected in the coming months, with parent SIA grounding almost 96% of its capacity in coming days, which is likely to sustain till the end of the year.
•
ST Engineering: ST Engineering (STE) is a diversified conglomerate with a staff strength of close to 22,000 across geographies. We estimate around 65% of staff are based in Singapore, of which around 50% would be locals. Aerospace sector will have a bigger proportion of locals on the payroll, whereas other sectors more heavily into manufacturing and marine shipyards would have higher dependency on foreign workers.
Extension of the 100% rebate on parking charges at Changi Airport until 31 Oct 2020 (from 31 July previously) will also be helpful for SIA. Together, these measures will help reduce the cash outflow from SIA during this challenging period and lower its operating losses.
In total, we estimate STE would be able to obtain wage support for around 7,000 staff in Singapore, but we are not assuming 75% offset of wages, but rather 25% offset
as STE’s businesses including aerospace MRO may not
qualify under the additional tier of support for severely stressed businesses as STE has minimal exposure to airport operations and ground handling.
•
SATS: Enhanced Jobs Support Scheme for aviation sector will see S$96m in benefits to SATS for 9 months. We estimate property tax rebates of around S$5m as well. Our estimate assumes (i) SATS operates on 62% dependency ratio for its aviation segment and we estimate that it has ~7,000 Singaporeans and PRs who will be eligible; (ii) a wage offset of 75% for every local worker employed applies. Other benefits from the $350m enhanced aviation support package include rental rebates of 1) 20% for tenancy at Changi Airfreight Centre and 2) rent rebates for lounges and offices at Changi Airport Terminal buildings.
Taking this into account, we estimate STE to save around
S$70m in staff costs in FY20. This is around 4% of STE’s
overall staff costs. We estimate this could help cushion any
potential decline in STE’s performance in FY20 to a
significant extent. The impact on STE of course will not be as affected operationally compared to SIA Engineering, as its Aerospace division has a more diversified revenue mix with low dependence on the line maintenance business. The Group itself has multiple segments with exposure to more stable government and defence spending.
•
SIA Engineering: SIA Engineering (SIE) should be a significant beneficiary of the enhanced Jobs Support
Scheme. We estimate around 60% of SIE’s employee
strength of 4500 are locals (Singaporeans + PRs) who would qualify for the scheme. Given the wage offset of 25% up to the first S$4,600 of wages for locals for 9 months, we estimate cost savings of about S$28m accruing to SIE for FY21, which is around 6% of last year’s wage bill.
Page 4
Market Focus
- Gaming (Jason SUM)
- Land Transport (Andy SIM)
•
Genting Singapore (GENS) is poised to reap significant cost savings. Based on the latest available figures, we believe that Genting employs around 12,500 employees, 70% of which are Singaporeans and Permanent Residents. As part of the enhanced Job Support Scheme, assuming 75% wage offset (given that Genting is part of the tourism sector), and an average monthly salary of S$2,500, Genting would receive around S$16.4m per month or around c.S$150m for the total nine-month period.
•
Special Relief Fund of S$300/ month till Sep 2020. A Special Relief Fund payment of S$300 per vehicle per month till end September for taxi hirers will help alleviate the costs of rental. This works out to S$10 per day. This should be on top of the current rental rebates that are in place.
On 25 March, ComfortDelGro has announced an increase in rental rebate to S$46.50 (up from S$36.50/day) and extending it till end April. The S$36.50/ day rebate was supposed to step down to S$30/day in April. This could help to reduce the idle rate with lesser taxi hirers returning their taxis.
Furthermore, GENS would also enjoy a 60% property tax rebate, up from 10% initially, which translates into further savings of c.S$20m. Overall, Genting could see c.S$170m reduction in its full-year operating costs, with total potential cost savings accounting for around 28% of our FY20 full-year EBITDA projection. Finally, the S$90m earmarked for tourism recovery efforts to catalyse an imminent rebound should also have some positive impact on GENS, given that RWS is one of Singapore’s top tourist attractions.
Fund to defray cost of idle fleet. $12m will also be set aside to help taxi operators defray the costs of their unhired fleet. This is expected to be pass on to drivers, which we believe CD has done.
Food Service (Alfie YEO)
•
Relief for F&B foodservices; positive for supermarket operators. Key measure for the sector is the Enhanced Jobs Support Scheme which will impact F&B Foodservices significantly. Co-funding of wages will increase from 8% for 3 months to 50% for 9 months with monthly wage ceiling increased from S$3,600 to S$4,600. This will have a positive impact on wage cost for Koufu and Jumbo. On our estimates, the additional reliefs will increase to S$4- 7m from S$1-2m previously. However, downside risk to revenue and earnings prevail if travel restrictions and limited social interactions/ dining out prevail.
Banks (LIM Rui Wen)
•
Alleviating concerns over non-performing loans. While it is a given that credit costs and non-performing loans for both businesses and individuals will be higher y-o-y, we believe the Supplementary Budget will help businesses mitigate some cashflow difficulties in the meantime with various enhancements to Enterprise Financing Scheme (EFS), subsidies to businesses under the Loan Insurance Scheme, Temporary Bridging Loan Programme (TBLP) and EFS - SME Working Capital Loan.
Impact on supermarkets is a net positive with the Enhanced Grocery Voucher. Jobs Support Scheme (25% co-funding) will go towards retaining headcount at supermarkets for DFI and SSG. We continue to be positive on supermarkets while maintaining our neutral stance on F&B Foodservices.
Further, the government will also be setting aside S$20bn of loan capital to support companies with strong capabilities. In addition, the substantial enhancements to Jobs Support Scheme and Wage Credit Scheme are likely to go a long way to preserve jobs, and also help to alleviate concerns on potential defaults on mortgages
(which accounts for close to a quarter of Singapore Banks’
loan book) and individual non-performing loans among Singapore banks as the economy continues to see an expected contraction. Increased co-funding of wages will
likely have 1-2% positive impact on banks’ earnings.
Telecom Sector (Sachin MITTAL)
•
StarHub is the biggest beneficiary in the telecom sector. Under the Jobs Support Scheme, the government will cofund 25% of local workers’ wages (up to a monthly salary of S$4600) for 9 months till December 2020. In terms of percentage impact on earnings, StarHub will benefit the most. We estimate that StarHub might benefit by S$13m (~9%% of FY20F earnings), Singtel by S$65-70m (~3% of FY21F earnings) & Netlink by S$2m (1.5% of its free cash flow). We have assumed that 80% of the staff is local and the Government will co-fund S$1000 per month on average for the local staff.
Page 5
Market Focus
Industrials (HO Pei Hwa)
While hoteliers are seeing a slight lift in occupancies from Malaysians (who chose to stay in Singapore) post the lockdown in Malaysia and stay-home-notices (SHN) for returning travellers, average daily rates (ADR) are generally lower than usual.
•
Offshore & Marine sector will benefit from wage support. Shipyards, a labour-intensive industry, will enjoy some cost savings from the enhanced job credit scheme. While the quantum is not big, every bit helps in this current challenging operating environment as capex recovery is once again deferred by low oil prices as COVID-19 takes a toll on oil demand.
The expansion of the tax rebates (30% of property tax) to commercial and industrial properties is also welcomed as recent channel checks suggest that industrial and office (eventually) tenants have been asking for some form of assistance (through rent rebates etc) as their own business activities are impacted.
Keppel Corporation. We estimate that Keppel employs ~2,000 local employees that qualify for wage support, resulting in S$21m cost savings, or c.2.5% of Keppel’s FY20F profit.
Based on our estimates, the property tax rebates work out to roughly 1 month of rent for retail landlords and hospitality landlords (c.9% of revenues) and 10 days of rent for commercial and industrial landlords.
Sembcorp Group. Sembcorp Marine hires c.2,500 local employees and will enjoys wage support of ~S$26m. The cost savings will help to narrow its current net loss estimate of S$32m for FY20F. Parent Sembcorp Industries has ~600 local employees under its Energy business and corporate office in Singapore. We estimate that total cost savings after excluding minority interests for SMM would be ~S$21m, boosting FY20F bottomline by c.5.6%.
Infusing cashflow to tenants. The expanded various job schemes, loan programs and deferment of income taxes for companies will improve business cash flows especially for firms in the industrial and offices property sectors. This will also mitigate the risk of systemic closures, which is a rising risk given the sharp economic slowdown in our view.