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Singapore Supplementary Budget

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Singapore Supplementary Budget Singapore Market Focus Singapore Supplementary Budget Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 27 Mar 2020 Unprecedented anti-viral boost STI : 2,487.56 • Dishing out total handouts of S$55bn, a whopping 11% of GDP • Significant cost savings of 4% cushions STI earnings decline to 5% for 2020F Analyst • Booster shot to Aviation-related, hospitality and retail sectors Janice CHUA +65 6682 3692; [email protected] • Key beneficiaries are SATS, SIA Engineering, Genting, Starhub, MINT, Kee Yan YEO, CMT +65 6682 3706; [email protected] UOB, OCBC Andy SIM, CFA +65 6682 3718; [email protected] Dipping into reserves for an unprecedented relief package. The Singapore Research Team; [email protected] government’s relief package of S$48bn is generous and timely, blowing market expectations. Including February’s Care and Share package of Key Indices S$6bn, the total handout of S$55bn represents an unprecedented 11% of Current % Chng GDP, and more than double the relief package of S$20.5bn dished out STI Index 2,487.56 -0.7% during the Global Financial Crisis. Aimed at saving jobs and supporting FS Small Cap Index 244.02 4.5% industries, this will cushion the recessionary impact as Singaporeans brave USD/SGD Curncy 1.43 -0.1% through this dark period. The impact is broad based, benefiting both Daily Volume (m) 445 consumers and corporates. Daily Turnover (S$m) 676 Lifeline for aviation-related and hospitality industries, which are directly hit Daily Turnover (US$m) 473 by COVID-19. The absence of tourists with several countries in lockdown Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. mode and Singapore in ‘quarantine’ stage put these industries in dire Market Key Data straits. The proposed wage subsidies of 75% for the aviation sector under (%) EPS Gth Div Yield Jobs Support Scheme (JSS) will preserve jobs as well as help to keep these 2019 (0.4) 5.4 companies in survival mode despite the loss of revenue for a few months. 2020F (7.3) 5.3 Total estimated cost savings for aviation-related industry is estimated at 2021F 13.6 5.3 S$574m or 20% of Industrial sector’s net earnings. (x) PER EV/EBITDA Shot in the arm for the economy, more property rebates. The thrust of the 2019 11.4 11.8 package is to save jobs and improve livelihoods. This will be positive for 2020F 12.2 12.4 banks, reducing the risks of provisions spiking up. In addition, banks will 2021F 10.8 10.6 enjoy cost savings of 2% from JSS. In the property sector, property tax rebates work out to about 1 month of rent for retail landlords and Beneficiaries hospitality landlords (c.9% of revenues) and 10 days of rent for 12-mth commercial and industrial landlords. The various expanded job schemes, Price Mkt Cap Target Performance (%) loan programmes and deferment of income taxes for companies will S$ US$m S$ 3 mth 12 mth Rating improve business cash flows especially for firms in the industrial and Mapletree offices properties sectors. This will benefit most landlords, but we see Industrial 2.35 3,614 3.00 (8.9) 13.0 BUY industrial REITs benefiting the most. Among the industrial landlords, we TrustGenting Spore 0.62 5,181 0.80 (33.9) (39.7) BUY believe Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT), with a large exposure to small SATS Ltd 3.32 2,594 2.66 (34.4) (34.9) FV and medium enterprises (SMEs), will be a key beneficiary. SIA Engrg 1.88 1,472 na (33.3) (21.7) na Singapore Cost savings significant at 4% for STI stocks, cushioning earnings drop. Airlines 6.50 5,382 na (66.5) (68.3) na We estimate the relief package will lead to cost savings culminating to ST Engrg 3.04 6,618 na (22.7) (19.2) na 4% for STI stocks, arising from JSS subsidies for labour intensive StarHub 1.32 1,597 1.40 (6.4) (12.6) BUY industries and those hit by COVID-19. This should help to cushion our OCBC Bank 8.75 26,907 8.60 (20.0) (20.7) HOLD earnings decline projection for FY20F to -5% from -9%. Besides the UOB 19.73 22,999 19.00 (25.3) (21.1) HOLD specific measures to lift the aviation sector that will benefit companies like SATS and SIA Engineering (SIE), other key beneficiaries with more Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. than 5% uplift to net earnings are Starhub and Genting. The relief Closing price as of 26 Mar 2020 package will sustain the economy and build resilience in the system. Banks, as proxies to the economy, will be key beneficiaries, the impact of wage subsidies amounting to 2% of net profits. ed: JS/ sa: DT, PY, CS Market Focus Extraordinary S$48bn Resilience Budget to Fight COVID-19. Enhanced Jobs Support Scheme (JSS) amounts to S$13.7bn. The DPM and Finance Minister, Mr Heng Swee Kiat, One of the key thrusts is to ensure that the livelihoods of delivered a Resilience Budget in Singapore Parliament residents are protected. The government is enhancing the response to the challenges brought on by the COVID-19 Jobs Support Scheme and will provide employers a 25% pandemic. This comes just 5 weeks after the Singapore cash grant (up from 8% previously announced on 18 Feb) 2020 Budget. on the gross monthly salary of each employee for nine months. This is increased from three months previously. The overall supplementary budget amounts to S$48bn and coupled with the S$6bn Care and Support package Aviation and Food Services receive additional JSS. For the announced on 18 Feb 2020, the total committed amount to aviation and tourism-related, and food services sector, which fight against COVID-19 pandemic totals S$55bn, are directly and deeply impacted by the virus outbreak, the representing 11% of Singapore’s GDP. JSS will support 75% and 50% of the first S$4,600 of employees’ gross monthly wages for 9 months. The focus of this S$48bn Resilience Budget rests on three key objectives: Further to that, the aviation sector will also receive S$350m 1. Support Workers, Protect Livelihoods support under the Aviation Support Package to provide cost 2. Stabilise and Support Businesses relief for the sector as well as to maintain some level of air 3. Build Resilience connectivity to allow Singaporeans to return. This Supplementary Budget is unprecedented and far larger Impact on STI index earnings than the S$20.5bn Package during the Global Financial Impact on Straits Times Index component stocks Crisis. The government is expected to draw on S$17bn of Prior to the supplementary budget we had expected the nation’s past reserves. earnings of STI component stocks to contract by 9% y-o-y in FY20F. With the supplementary budget leading to significant The key thrust of this supplementary budget is to save jobs cost savings amounting to 4% for STI stocks, we now expect and provide support to businesses, particularly those STI component stocks to register 5% y-o-y earnings industries deeply impacted by the outbreak. These include contraction. aviation and travel-related, hospitality, transport and food services sectors. DBS: estimated uplift of c.4% to FY20F EPS arising from Singapore Resilience Budget Measures Sector 2019 Net Earnings S$m Banks 15,565 Real Estate 4,437 Consumer Staples 3,287 Industrials 2,901 Communication Services 2,533 Consumer Discretionary 2,001 REITs 1,733 Financial 391 Information Technology 363 Grand Total 33,212 FY20 net earnings forecast before budget 30,256 FY20 net earnings forecast after budget 31,551 FY20 EPS change before supplementary budget -8.9% FY20 EPS change after supplementary budget -5.0% Source: DBS Bank estimates’ Page 2 Market Focus Resilience Budget and impact on sectors Est. benefit Beneficiaries Measures (S$m) Aviation SIA (1) Estimate 17,500 employees qualify for wage support - $380m 380 (2) Extension of 100% rebate on parking charges at Changi Airport until 31 Oct20 (prev. 31 Jul) SATS (1) Estimate >7,000 Singaporeans and PRs qualify for wage support - $96m 101 (2) Property tax rebate est. <$5m (3) Licensing rebates and other ground handlers and cargo agent rebates SIA Eng (1) Cost savings of about S$84m accruing to SIE for FY21, which is around 17% of last year’s wage bill At least 28 (2) Expect earnings to decline by 16% (prev >21%) in FY21 ST Eng (1) Costs savings of about S$70m from wage support for around 7,000 staff in Singapore 70 Hospitality Genting (1) Expect 8,750 employees to qualify for wage support – S$150m (2) 60% property tax rebate translates into an additional S$20m of cost savings 180 (3) S$90m earmarked for tourism recovery efforts will help to support top line Banks (1) Enterprise Financing Scheme (EFS) - Trade Loan: Increase maximum loan quantum from $5 m to $10 m, Government's risk-share increases from up to 70%, to 80%. (2) Increase subsidies to businesses for loan insurance premiums under the Loan Insurance Scheme, from UOB, 50% to 80%. 310 OCBC (3) Expand the Temporary Bridging Loan Programme (TBLP) to all enterprises, and increase the maximum supported loan from $1 m to $5 m. (4) SMEs that require support beyond the TBLP can continue to tap the EFS - SME Working Capital Loan. (5) Jobs Support Scheme and Wage Credit scheme Food service Sheng Siong, (1) Enhanced Jobs Support Scheme for Food Service from 8% to 50%, up to S$4,600 gross monthly DFI, Koufu wage for 9 months, from 3 months previously Jumbo (2) Enhanced Grocery Vouchers for Singaporeans living in 1- or 2-room flats worth $300 from $100 Land transport (1) Estimate 7,000 employees qualify for Jobs Support Scheme ComfortDelgro (2) Help to defray costs of growing idle fleet; to pass on benefit to taxi drivers Telco Starhub (1) Enhanced Jobs Support Scheme of 25% from 8%, up to S$4,600 gross monthly wage for 9 months, 13 Singtel from 3 months previously 65-70 Property (1) Property tax rebate at 100% for Hospitality and Retail, and 30% for other Commercial properties, up Various from 30% and 15%, respectively property (2) Enhanced rental waivers of 2 months for commercial and non-residential tenants in government companies, properties (3) Overall impact positive for REITs as it limits potential downside to DPUs; property companies savings will step the dip in income as recurring incomes dip in 2020.
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