U.S. Department of the Interior Level Change: Lessons Fact Sheet U.S. Geological Survey from the Geologic Record

Rising is potentially one of the periods in which global was very It is essential that scientists use records of most serious impacts of climatic change. Even warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level sea level preserved in the geologic record to a small would have serious was higher than today. determine how fast and how high sea level economic consequences because it would can rise. There are two primary ways to cause extensive damage to the 's coastal establish sea level history. One is through the regions. Sea level can rise in the future study of ancient shoreline features such as because the surface can expand due to Sea level is expected beach ridges, reef terraces, wave-cut warming and because polar ice sheets and to rise escarpments, and shallow marine can melt, increasing the . Ancient shorelines tells scientists how ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on gauge records from the last century high sea level was at a certain time, like coral and contain 91 and show that global sea level rose about 10 to reef terraces that formed when sea level rose 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. 15 centimeters (about 4 to 6 inches). At least 6 meters above its present level during the The world' s mountain glaciers together con­ 50 percent of this was due to thermal expan­ last interglacial period, 125,000 ago. tain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice sion of the ocean surface, the rest was prob­ Although an ancient shoreline can give would raise sea level about 80 meters. ably due to the melting of small glaciers. In scientists an accurate position of sea level, it Although this extreme scenario is not expec­ the next century, sea level is predicted to rise often only represents a brief interval- a ted, geologists know that sea level can rise by between 60 and 300 centimeters, or 2 to "snapshot"-of time when sea level was high. and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice 10 feet. But predictions of future sea levels Scientists must therefore assume that a steady on . For example, during the last are fraught with uncertainty because our his­ rate of sea level rise occurred between the ice , about 18,000 years ago, continental torical record of sea level change based on tide formation of two shorelines. ice sheets contained more than double the gauges is limited to about the last 100 years modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, and is only available from well-populated Another way to measure sea level change is sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and coastal areas. The next century might see an to estimate the volume of ice in polar regions possibly faster during certain times. During even more rapid rise than the last. through geochemical study of the (CaC03) shells of small deep-sea 160 . Foraminifers are one-celled , and ostracodes are shelled 120 . Both occur as microfossils in 80 Hypothetical maximum sea level - cores obtained by drilling the -----tSO------meters (if all polar ice melted) ocean floor. In contrast to shorelines, 40 ~ Pliocene sea level (3 million years ago) Q) ---- -r ---- sediment cores give a fairly continuous record Q) _'30 meters E Modern sea level of ocean history and ice volume. When these .!: grow, they build their shells from .I::.- -40 c. , , calcium, , and Q) -80 "C... other elements in solution in the surrounding Q) water. The proportion of each element in the co - 120 sea level ~ (18,000 years ago) water (that is, the sea-water chemistry) is - 160 strongly influenced by evaporation, precipita­ -200 tion, and global climate, so the shell chemistry serves as a proxy of the ocean -240 environment. During glacial periods, the ratio Sea level can fluctuate as a result of changes in the volume of ice sheets in polar regions and mountain of the heavy isotope of oxygen (18Q) to its glaciers. During the last glacial period, sea level fell to about 125 meters below its present level. Sea level rose to about 30 meters above the present level during global warmth 3 million years ago . light isotope (16Q) in is high because

Ancient shorelines document positions in many regions.

Left-Beach ridge formed during retreat of last , north­ eastern Maine.

Center- marine shells from last interglacial period, Chesa­ peake, .

Right- terrace formed during last interglacial, Dominican Republic. relatively more of the light isotope is concentrated in continental ice sheets and less in seawater. This is reflected in th~ shell chemistry of foraminifers. During warm periods, the opposite situation occurs, and there is a lower 180fl60 ratio in both seawater and in the shells of animals that lived during these periods. Oxygen isotope ratios are good general monitors of ice volume, but water temperature also influences the shell chem­ istry of microfossils. Because cold water also causes low 18Qfl6Q ratios in foraminifer shells, it is necessary to have a "paleothermometer" to measure the history of deep-sea microfossils holds clues to changes in global ice volume. A. The ratio of heavy to light oxygen (18QJ16Q ratio) of the deep-sea benthic foraminifera Cibicidoides, tell ice volume history; of seawater temperatures. B. Magnesium/calcium ratios in the ostracode Krithe tell bottom water temperature and dissolution history.

Researchers try to of ancient shorelines along the eastern United on the temperature and of the world's estimate rates of States, researchers can use two independent . Understanding the linkage between sea level rise methods to crosscheck how high sea level oceanic circulation history, ice volume and rose during past periods of global warming. sea level is a prerequisite for testing computer models designed to determine the ocean's USGS researchers are working to develop role in the global biogeochemical carbon improved methods to estimate how high and Results show that sea level can reach levels cycle and the potential impact of high atmos­ how fast sea level can rise. In collaboration many meters above present sea level during pheric on future climate and with scientists at Duke University, the Massa­ periods of warm global climate. For example, sea level. chusetts Institute of Technology, Woods Hole sea level rose to as much as 30 meters above Oceanographic Institution, The University of present sea level during a time of global Basque Country (), and Shizuoka and warmth about 3 million years ago. Resear­ Kanazawa Universities (Japan), scientists are chers hypothesize that this rise was due to Implications for investigating how the proportions of magne­ reduced continental ice on Antarctica and coastal regions sium and calcium in ostracode shells are Greenland, which implies that the Antarctic controlled by water temperature and shell ice sheet was more dynamic than previously One implication of sea-level research is that - dissolution. By improving methods to thought. These studies also provide evidence coastal regions are vulnerable to shoreline · estimate bottom water temperatures, a more that substantial changes occurred in deep-sea movement over different timescales. Current accurate estimate of ice volume can be bottom water temperatures and in levels of research is aimed at providing a detailed obtained from the 180fl60 ratios. By com­ shell dissolution during glacial and inter­ record of sea level change on timescales of paring the ice volume estimated from deep­ glacial cycles. These changes are due in part decades to centuries that can be obtained from sea chemistry with the to the effects of changing polar ice volume high--rate cores along continen­ tal margins and in the . This research involves developing an understanding of complex biological and hydrological systems, including the factors that influence the chem­ istry of foraminifers and ostracode shells, as well as the tectonic factors that can alter the original position of ancient shorelines. An integrated research program, carried out in partnership with other institutions, is essential if scientists are to unravel the mysteries of sea level and ice volume and apply them to improved modeling, prediction, and coastal resource management. Without accurate estimates of the rate of future sea level rise, it will be difficult for policy makers to deter­ mine the economic and social consequences of future .

For more information: Dr. Thomas M. Cronin U.S. Geological Survey Evidence for high sea level is common along the east of the U.S. Left-Shoreline formed about 3 million Reston, VA 22092 years ago during period of global warmth highlights this Landsat photograph of the Georgia Coastal . Tel: (703) 648-6363, Fax: (703) 648-5420 Right-The fossiliferous shelly of the Yorktown Formation, exposed along the York River, southeastern Virginia, records a period of high sea level and warm climate. Internet: tcronin@ geochange.er.usgs.gov April1995 FS-117-95