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Local Equity Market Index SEMDEX Continued on Its Downtrend at The Market Update 31 December 2020 Local Economy Local Equities As expected, the Mauritian economy witnessed a significant Local equity market index SEMDEX continued on its downtrend at downturn in 2020 in the wake of the nationwide lockdown, the the start of 4Q20 shedding 3.2% to 1,460 points on November 9 prolonged closure of the country’s international borders and the coming closer to its year to date low of 1,455 points. However, the significant difficulties confronting economic sectors amidst the trend reversed on news of a possible vaccine rollout in some spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, real GDP growth is countries in December 2020. On the back of this optimism, the estimated to have contracted by 15.2% in 2020 according to SEMDEX staged a rally to end the quarter up 13.0% thereby Statistics Mauritius. As per the latter, all industry groups – with the dampening its 2020 loss to 24.5%. exception of ‘Information and communication’ and ‘Financial and 2020 registered an acceleration in net foreign outflow to the tune insurance activities’ – have contracted in 2020. of MUR2.1bn (2019- MUR1.9bn) fostered by multiple issues such Against this backdrop, pressures have been exerted on nationwide as Mauritius entering the black list of the European Union, risk off investment levels and net employment creation, while fiscal on equities amidst nationwide lockdown due to COVID-19 and the metrics were impacted by dampened revenue collection amidst the depreciation of the MUR vis-a-vis major currencies. difficult context and higher expenditures linked to support Largest capitalization and most liquid stock MCBG contributed to measures. just over 50% of the net fund outflows as its foreign shareholding As for headline inflation, after remaining broadly stable for some base dropped from 13.8% to 11.6% as its share price suffered a time, it pursued a gradual uptrend to stand at 2.4% in November 25.2% slump YTD (comparable to the 26.5% drop during the 2008 2020. On the external front, despite support measures announced financial crisis). On the other hand, peer banking group SBMH lost in the Budget and the downward pressures on the value of the 33.5% of its foreign shareholding on the year to stand at 2.6% rupee, exports of goods fell by a notable margin last year against whilst its share price eroded by -44.1% YTD. the backdrop of the significant economic slowdown in our export 110.00 SEMDEX and SEM-10 (in MUR terms) markets in the wake of the pandemic. (September 2019 = 100) 100.00 Thus, in spite of some relief conveyed to the import bill by lower international oil prices and the reduction in business operations 90.00 SEMDEX locally, the balance of trade deficit deteriorated further. Overall, 80.00 after making allowance for the significant decline in tourism earnings, the current account deficit is estimated to have breached 70.00 into double-digit territory in 2020. Capital and financial flows were 60.00 also lower with the Balance of Payment moving in the negative territory for the first time in nearly 15 years. 3/Jul/20 7/Feb/20 4/Sep/20 24/Jul/20 6/Nov/20 1/May/20 17/Jan/20 12/Jun/20 16/Oct/20 10/Apr/20 28/Feb/20 25/Sep/20 27/Dec/19 18/Dec/20 14/Aug/20 27/Nov/20 20/Mar/20 22/May/20 Market Update 31 December 2020 Local Equities Local Equities All sectors converge positively during the last quarter. Investment Notwithstanding the roll-out of a vaccine globally, we renew our sector advanced the most (+14.7%) as 11 out of its 14 constituents cautious stance given the emergence of a mutated strain of the gained and heavily battered sugar related stocks Medine and Alteo virus, reintroduced lockdowns especially in our source markets spiked by +44.8% (2020: -33.3%) and +43.1% (2020: +23.9%) which could delay the reopening of our borders and the respectively following a surge in international sugar prices, maintenance of Mauritius on the FATF grey list/EU blacklist could depreciation of the USDMUR, in addition to improved results altogether represent headwinds for the domestic equity market in driven by its African operations for Alteo. 2021. Banking and insurance sector moved 10.9% higher as MCBG (4Q20 However, some stocks in the Banking & Insurance, Sugar and other +12.9%, 2020: -25.2%) and SBMH (4Q20 +10.1%, 2020: -44.1%) sectors have shown signs of resilience throughout 2020 where saw gains. MUA successfully raised MUR415m from its rights issue overall dividend paid shrank and Government yields tumbled to all priced at MUR83.00 and the stock ended the quarter strongly at time lows. We remain vigilant for a potential return to payment of MUR90.00. dividend on selected stocks which will consequently make equity Sentiment on the hotel industry remained downbeat as border risk appealing. Moreover, we see equities sticky on the downside closures are maintained globally and the quarantine period given that stocks slumped in 2020. As a result, on a balance of risk extended to February 2021 in Mauritius. Even though the 3 major we would favour going overweight on equities. hotel groups have agreed terms for assistance from the Mauritius Top gainers and laggards – 4Q20 Investment Corporation (MIC), their stock prices saw meagre technical rebound, NMH (4Q20 +6.6%, 2020: -61.0%) and LUX Medine 44.8% Harel Mallac -7.8% (4Q20 +2.7%, 2020: ) whereas SUN closed lower (4Q20 -4.8%, Alteo 43.1% PIM -7.4% 2020: -53.7%). Sector Performance BMH -6.7% Lottotech 24.4% 4Q20 YTD 20% 14.7% Moroil -5.9% 10.9% 11.0% CIEL Limited 6.6% 5.4% 23.9% 10% 2.2% 0.0% Sun Limited -4.8% 0% MDIT 19.9% -10% UDL -3.9% -7.4% -20% -11.4% MCBG 12.9% PAD -3.8% -30% -26.1% -26.2% NIT 11.9% Vivo Energy -40% -35.1% -3.1% Omnicane -50% -45.6% 11.0% Dale Capital 0.0% -60% -55.2% Financials Industrials Hotels & Investments Property Commercial Sugar ASL 10.1% BlueLife Limited 0.0% leisure Market Update 31 December 2020 Mauritius Investment Corporation assistance Fixed Income Table 1.1: summary of the MIC assistance granted to the hotel sector. Consequently, the sovereign yield curve dropped sharply, Announcement Amount Subscribed specifically on the short-end. Name of company Conversion Price (MUR) Date (MUR m) Fair value as determined by The 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury bills shed 35bps, 55bps Sun Limited 06-Oct-20 3,100 independent valuer and 95bps over 4Q20 respectively, with the short-end appearing NMH 29-Dec-20 2,500 7.35 to flatten out. The 3-yr, 5-yr and 10-yr maturities also saw drops of 25 to 65 basis points. Indeed, at the primary auctions held in LUX 18-Sep-20 1,000 3.43 November and December, the 3-yr, 5-yr and 10-yr Government of Southern Cross 11-Nov-20 350 3.60 Mauritius (GoM) securities dropped to 0.79%, 1.24% and 1.35% respectively. From Table 1.1, even though Sun Limited appeared to have secured 5.50 the highest amount of “MUR3.1bn” it is to be noted that part of this 5.00 Government of Mauritius Bonds Yield Curve Yield curve MCB mid rates amount was used to repay maturing EUR denominated debt 4.50 based on obligations. The MIC has to date extended credit facilities totaling 4.00 3.50 MUR6.95bn to listed hotel groups in the form of redeemable 3.00 convertible bonds. The conditions appear largely homogeneous: (i) 2.50 maturity of 9 years following the first disbursement by the MIC, (ii) 2.00 any outstanding debt post maturity date is to be converted into 1.50 31-Mar-20 1.00 30-Jun-20 ordinary shares of the issuer at a pre-agreed conversion price (if 0.50 30-Sep-20 listed, the VWAP of the ordinary shares for the period 01 Jan – 30 - June 2020) and (iii) the facilities to be used exclusively for working 3M 6M 12M 3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y capital requirements on Mauritian operations and to pay interest on A noticeable fact, however, is that the differential between the existing debt. weighted average yield of the 10-year GoM bond and the key repo rate has turned negative for the first time since 2010 (see Fixed Income chart 1.2), indicating that either: (i) market participants are In the midst of a banking system where the excess liquidity stood at speculating on a further cut in the key repo rate (the MPC MUR49bn in December 2020 (v/s MUR12.4bn in Dec 2019) and scheduled for 25 November 2020 has been postponed to a later where Government issuance plan will amount to a cumulative of date), (ii) that the demand-supply dynamics, fueled by excess MUR33bn until April 2021 – the amount being close to the liquidity, will prolong the low-rate environment, or (iii) the rise in maturities of existing issues over the same period - avid primary inflation expectations (as per the latest survey published on 14 dealers that are flush with cash preferred scraping record-low yields Dec 2020 by the Bank of Mauritius) will boost yields for the off the latest auctions instead of sitting on idle cash. longer-end of the curve at the following pre-determined auctions. Market Update 31 December 2020 Fixed Income FX % Chart 1.2 - 10yr GOM bond yield vs Key Repo Rate early April 2020 level.
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