Th e impact of climate change in Africa

INTRODUCTION desertifi cation in the Sahara region, fl oods, deforestation, and erosion are all signs that climate change is already Climate change has been identifi ed as a leading human happening and represents one of the greatest environ- and environmental crisis of the 21st century. Th e mental, social and economic threats facing Africa: ‘Th e problem of understanding climate change (or global impact of climate change will fall disproportionate on warming) is one of the major challenges confronting the world’s poorest countries, many of them here in African people, their governments and the African Africa. Poor people already live on the front lines of pol- Union (AU). Moreover, it has been argued that climate lution, disaster, and degradation of resources and land. change leads to acute confl icts and it therefore becomes For them, adaptation is a matter of sheer survival.’4 imperative to achieve a proper understanding of the Unfortunately, despite growing concern, no exact phenomenon in Africa. Great public, political and and reliable fi gures are available to quantify the eco- academic attention is now being devoted to the issue of nomic costs of the negative impacts of climate change global warming and climate change. A broad scientifi c in Africa for either individuals or society as a whole. As and political consensus has been established that climate far as development is concerned, climate change will change poses a considerable threat to Africa, its ecosys- have a strong impact on Africa’s ability to achieve the tems and many of its species: ‘Th e science has become Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and on its more irrevocable than ever: climate change is happening. development policies in general, with increased pressure Th e evidence is all around us. And unless we act, we will on agriculture, water supply and demand, health, and see catastrophic consequences including rising sea-levels, political stability. droughts and famine, and the loss of up to a third of the Th is paper is concerned with the fact that African world’s plant and animal species.’1 A large number of nations are among the lightest polluters, but analysts reports and public statements have also suggested that say they will suff er the most from climate change in climate change in Africa is a security threat.2 their pursuit of water and food security, sustainable Concern over the negative impact of climate change development, and political and economic sustainability. has strengthened fears that environmental degradation Th erefore, the paper reviews the relationships among and demographic pressures will displace millions of climate change, water and food security, confl icts, and people in Africa and create serious social upheaval. Most development. It also argues that there is a need for scientists studying the potential impact of climate change climate change information in Africa and reviews the have predicted that Africa is likely to experience higher status of international climate agreements related to temperatures, rising sea levels, changing rainfall patterns adaptation, mitigation and compensation. In addition, and increased climate variability, all of which could the paper argues that even if climate change by its nature aff ect much of its population. may not necessarily lead to violent inter-state confl icts, Th e actual and potential impacts of climate change in scarcity of water and food in Africa has, however, already Africa are large and wide ranging, aff ecting many aspects nurtured political tensions among nations, thus retard- of people’s everyday lives. Many climate models predict ing eff orts towards sustainable development. negative impacts of climate change on agricultural Th e paper is divided into fi ve parts: it begins with a production and food security in large parts of sub- discussion of the need for climate information, followed Saharan Africa (SSA).3 Higher temperatures, the drying by sections on the impact of climate change on Africa’s up of soils, increased pest and disease pressure, shift s in water resources, the continent’s food security, Africa’s suitable areas for growing crops and livestock, increased development challenges due to climate change, security

Debay Tadesse • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 threats facing the continent, and the AU position on focus on medium- to long-term projections of carbon climate change. Th e paper concludes with recommenda- emissions and forecasting models of global warming, and tions and a suggested way forward. cover mainly countries and regions for which relevant Any attempt to understand the impacts of climate data is readily available. Th is leaves out most countries change on Africa is fraught with diffi culties. While some and regions within Africa due to unavailable data and of the impacts are known and relatively well understood, trajectories. Knowledge and access to information are es- there is still great uncertainty about the key climate proc- sential for eff ective environmental management and have esses and their consequences. Climate change is already signifi cant impacts on the economy and the livelihood having substantial impacts on Africa. Successfully choices people make. adapting to these impacts is crucial to achieving the If governments are to make informed and trans- continent’s development objectives. Both observational formative choices concerning climate change, they records and climate projections provide strong evidence require the best and most up-to-date science. Climate that freshwater resources in particular are vulnerable information exists that could improve decision making and have the potential to be strongly aff ected, leading to within these sectors, thereby mitigating the eff ects of additional pressure on water availability, accessibility, adverse climate. But at present this information is seldom supply and demand in Africa.5 incorporated in policy formulation processes and devel- opment decisions. A recent study by the International THE NEED FOR CLIMATE INFORMATION Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) found gaps in four main areas: Th ere is no internationally agreed defi nition of the term ‘climate change’, which has resulted in diff erences of ■ Integrating climate into policy opinion on the issue. Climate change can refer to long- ■ Integrating climate into practice term changes in average weather conditions covering ■ Climate services all changes in the climate system, including the drivers ■ Climate data9 of change, the changes themselves and their eff ects; or can refer only to human-induced change in the climate IRI concluded that a major, continent-wide eff ort to system. Th ere is also no agreement on how to defi ne the integrate climate risk management into climate-sensitive term ‘climate variability’.6 Climate has been in a constant development processes at all levels is an urgent and top state of change throughout the earth’s 4.5-billion-year priority requirement for Africa today.10 Moreover, during history, but most of these changes occur on astronomical the IRI study, problems were also identifi ed in terms of or geological time scales, and are too slow to be observed a lack of evidence regarding both the impact of climate on a human scale.7 variability on climate-sensitive development outcomes On the other hand, it is known that the climate and the benefi ts of climate information to improve these system is highly complex and consists of: outcomes.11 Raising awareness of climate information and providing evidence of its value to decision makers in ■ Th e atmosphere: gaseous matter above the earth’s climate-sensitive sectors are thus important challenges surface that must be met. ■ Th e hydrosphere: liquid on or below the earth’s In the fi eld of climate change, there is still much surface uncertainty about the probabilities of various possible ■ Th e cryosphere: snow and ice on or below the earth’s changes occurring in specifi c locations. Th is can be dealt surface with by investing in improved information to reduce the ■ Th e lithosphere: earth’s land surface (e.g. rock, soil degree of local uncertainty or by spreading the uncertain and sediment) risk through some form of global network. Knowledge ■ Th e biosphere: earth’s plants and animal life, includ- about the future will always be uncertain, but the current ing humans8 high degree of uncertainty about the potential local impacts of climate change could be reduced through im- Th ere is still much to understand about the African proving the science. Other priorities include recognising climate, its drivers and the links to global warming. the need for decision making in the face of uncertainty, Despite considerable progress in African meteorological and bridging the gap between scientifi c and traditional science, we are still not confi dent about the major climate perceptions of climate change. trends either at the continental level or for individual countries. Most analyses of the impact of climate change Climate information that have infl uenced United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreements Th ere are three types of climate information:

2 The impact of climate change in Africa • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 ■ Historical data, which helps to elucidate trends, will reduce poor people’s vulnerability to climate vari- provides climate statistics, sets a context for current ability and extremes. data, and allows variability and the occurrence of extremes to be quantifi ed THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ■ Real-time data, i.e. current climate observations, ON AFRICA’S WATER RESOURCES which aids short-term predictions of the conse- quences of specifi c weather events, e.g. heavy rainfall Water resources in particular comprise one sector that is leading to fl ooding highly dependent on and infl uenced by climate change. A ■ Climate forecasts, i.e. predictions of the climate, number of countries in Africa already experience consid- ranging from long-term weather forecasts, through erable water stress as a result of insuffi cient and unreliable seasonal forecasts, to medium-term (10–30 years) and rainfall that changes rainfall patterns or causes fl ooding. long-term climate change projections12 Climate change is real, and its impact is already being felt. It has aff ected the people of Africa and its food systems Most of the sectors on which development eff orts focus that are already vulnerable. Th e population in SSA is are climate sensitive, including agriculture, health, expected to increase from 700 million in 2007 to 1 100 energy, transport and water resources. Incorporating million in 2030 and 1 500 million by 2050, and popula- climate knowledge into these eff orts could greatly tions will become increasingly urban.13 Overall water enhance their eff ectiveness, yet the opportunities for demand can therefore be expected to more than double in doing this are largely being missed in Africa. It is becom- the fi rst half of the 21st century, without considering rises ing clear that what is needed is an integrated approach in per capita demand for food and water. that incorporates climate science into multidisciplinary Agriculture, which provides a livelihood for about development planning and projects. Th e climate tools three-quarters of Africa’s population, is mainly rain used in such an approach will enhance stakeholders’ fed. Severe and prolonged droughts, fl ooding, and loss decisions making by providing relevant new information of arable land due to desertifi cation and soil erosion are that they can incorporate into practice. Climate is aff ect- reducing agricultural yields and causing crop failure and ing development in Africa. Strengthening livelihoods by loss of livestock, which endanger rural and pastoralist improving agricultural productivity, diversifying on- and populations. Th e Horn of Africa’s pastoralist areas off -farm activities, providing better access to markets (Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia border) have been severely and market information, and improving infrastructure impacted by recurrent droughts.14

Table 1 Summary of climate change impacts in Africa by 2009

Factor aff ected Low-warming scenario Mid-warming scenario High-warming scenario

CO2 atmospheric levels in parts per million (ppm) 600 ppm 850 ppm 1 550 ppm Global temperature increase 1,8° C 2,8° C 4,0° C

Global sea level rise 0,18–0,38 m 0,21–0,48 m 0,26–0,59 m

■ Precipitation in sub- tropical areas falls by up to 20% 20–30% decrease in water ■ Annual mean rainfall 30–50% decline in water Water availability in vulnerable increases by 7% in East availability in Southern Africa areas Africa ■ Precipitation decrease of 20% along Mediterranean coast

Decrease of 15–35% in 5–10% decline in African crop 550 million additional people Agriculture and food agricultural yields across yields at risk of hunger continent

■ Coastal fl ooding aff ects ■ 420 million people between 11 and 170 exposed to fl ooding Up to 10 million more people million additional people globally Extreme events aff ected by coastal fl ooding per year globally ■ Tens of millions displaced globally ■ 10–20% increase in by extreme weather cyclone activity in the events and climate southern Indian Ocean processes

Source Adapted from Oli Brown et al (eds), Climate change and security in Africa, Nordic African Ministers of Foreign Aff airs Forum, 2009, http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2009/climate_change_security_africa.pdf (accessed August 2010)

Debay tadesse • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 3 In contrast to the lack of knowledge on the direction 21st century. Th is would aff ect the risk of fl ash fl ooding and magnitude of hydrological changes under diff erent and urban fl ooding. climate change scenarios, the prospects of demographic Until recently, most assessments of the impact of change in the 21st century because of the continent’s climate change on food and agriculture sector have overdependence on rain-fed agriculture, compounded focused on the implications for food production and by factors such as widespread poverty and weak capacity, global supply food, with less consideration of other are strong. Th e main longer-term impacts of climate components of the food chain. In recent years, world change in Africa include changing rainfall patterns food prices have skyrocketed, causing severe hardship aff ecting agriculture and reducing food security; worsen- for poor and vulnerable people throughout the world, ing water security; decreasing fi sh resources in large and in particular in Africa. Between 2005 and 2008 lakes due to rising temperatures and overfi shing; rising world prices of rice, wheat and maize doubled, pushing sea levels aff ecting low-lying coastal areas with large more than 100 million people into poverty, including populations; and rising water stress.15 Th erefore, increas- nearly 30 million people in Africa.17 Th e causes of the ing water availability and increasing the reliability of food price crisis in Africa remained land degradation water in agriculture, i.e. through irrigation, is one of the through outdated farming practices, inadequate power preferred options to increase productivity and contribute generation capacity and distribution networks, poor- to poverty reduction. quality roads and port facilities, and lack of water storage and irrigation capacity that limited the development of CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD agriculture, imperiled food security and held back trade SECURITY IN AFRICA in agriculture-based products. Policy debates on the food crisis, such as the UN Th e United Nations Development Programme warns Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Summit in that the progress in human development achieved over June 2008, failed to identify the role of sustainable land the last decade may be slowed down or even reversed by management in ensuring food security. Nevertheless, climate change, as new threats emerge to water and food land degradation is one of the important long-term security, agricultural production and access, and nutri- factors aff ecting people’s vulnerability to weather tion and public health. Th e impacts of climate change extremes. Land degradation is also considered as – sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, fl oods and rainfall one of the greatest environmental challenges facing variation – could by 2080 push another 600 million Africa today and is a major impediment to meeting people into malnutrition and increase the number of basic human needs.18 According to the recent Global people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion.16 A variety Assessment of Land Degradation, nearly a quarter of of climate and non-climatic processes infl uence fl ood the land surface of the world degraded between 1981 processes, resulting in river fl oods, fl ash fl oods, urban and 2003.19 fl oods, sewer fl oods, glacial lake outburst fl oods and Land degradation is also a result of poverty (e.g. coastal fl oods. Heavy precipitation events are projected cutting trees for farm land and energy), due to popula- to become more frequent in most regions throughout the tion pressure and lack of structural transformation of the

Figure 1 Human activities causing soil degradation

28% Agricuture 30% Deforestation

7% Fuelwood gathering

1% Industry

35% Overgrazing

Source Erosion, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erosion (accessed 29 July 2010)

4 The impact of climate change in Africa • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 economies in rural areas. Figure 1 shows human activi- Food accessibility ties that cause soil degradation. Severe and prolonged droughts, fl ooding, loss of Food accessibility is a measure of the ability to secure arable land due to deforestation, overgrazing and entitlements, which are defi ned as the set of resources fuel-wood gathering that has led to soil degradation are (legal, political, economic and social) that an individual reducing agricultural yields and causing crop failures requires to obtain access to food.24 Until the 1970s food and loss of livestock, which endangers rural and pasto- security was linked mainly to national food produc- ralist populations. Th e Horn of Africa’s pastoralist areas tion and global trade, but since then the concept has (Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia border) have been severely expanded to include households’ and individuals’ access hit by recurrent droughts, causing livestock losses that to food. have plunged approximately 11 million people who are dependent on livestock for their livelihoods into crisis Food utilisation and triggering the mass migration of pastoralists out of drought-aff ected areas.20 Food utilisation refers to the use of food and how a Defi nitions of food security identify the outcomes person is able to secure essential nutrients from the of food security and are useful for formulating policies food he/she consumes. It encompasses the nutritional and deciding on actions, but the processes that lead to values of an individual’s diet, including its composition the desired outcomes also matter. Climate change is and methods of preparation, and the social values of aff ecting all four dimensions of food security in Africa, particular foods, which dictate what kinds of food should i.e. food availability, food accessibility, food utilisation be served and eaten at diff erent times of the year and on and food systems stability, each of which is discussed diff erent occasions. It also refers to the quality and safety in more detail below. It will also have an impact on of the food supply, which, if not of a suffi cient standard, food production and distribution channels, as well can cause loss of nutrients in the food spread or food- as changing purchasing power and market fl ows. Its borne diseases.25 Climate conditions are likely to bring impacts will be both short term, resulting from more both negative and positive changes in dietary patterns frequent and more intense extreme weather events, and new challenges for food safety, which may aff ect and long term, caused by changing temperature and nutritional status in various ways. precipitation patterns.21 Th e adverse impact of climate change on food Recent work describing the functioning of food utilisation is signifi cant. Declines in the availability systems has helped to show both desired food security of wild foods and limits on small-scale horticultural goals and what needs to happen to achieve them.22 production due to the scarcity of water or labour result- Agriculture is important for food security both in terms ing from climate change could aff ect food utilisation. of producing food that people eat and providing the Climate change will also cause new patterns of pests and primary source of livelihood for over 80 per cent of diseases to emerge, aff ecting plants and human health. Africa’s total workforce. If agricultural production in the In addition, increased incidence of water-borne diseases low-income developing countries is aff ected severely by in fl ood-prone areas, changes in vectors for climate- climate change, the numbers of rural poor people that responsive pests and diseases, and the emergence of new will be put at risk due to vulnerability to food insecurity diseases could aff ect both the food chain and people’s will surge. physiological capacity to obtain the necessary nutrients from the foods they consume. Food availability Food system stability Food availability is determined by the physical quantities of food that are produced, stored, processed, distributed Other food system processes, such as processing, and exchanged. Food availability is also measured in distribution, acquisition, preparation and consump- terms of the net amount remaining aft er production, tion, are as important for food security as food and stocks and imports have been summed and exports agricultural production.26 Technological advances and deducted for each item included in the food balance the development of long-distance marketing chains that sheet. Adequacy is assessed through the comparison of move produced and packaged foods throughout Africa at availability with the estimated consumption requirement high speed and relatively low cost will make overall food for each food item.23 Th is approach takes into account the system performance far less dependent on climate. importance of international trade and domestic produc- Ensuring food security in the context of climate tion in assuring a country’s food supply, with domestic and growing risks due to disasters is one of the greatest markets playing the balancing role. adaptation challenges. Agriculture, forestry and fi sheries

Debay tadesse • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 5 will not only be aff ected by climate change, but will also important economists of the past, e.g. Adam Smith, Karl contribute to it through emitting greenhouse gases. Th e Marx, John Maynard Keynes, etc.32 MDG of halving the number of undernourished people Very large and sustained increases in growth are by 2015 is becoming more diffi cult to reach as a result necessary if SSA is to have a realistic prospect of halving of the adverse impact of climate change.27 Africa’s food income poverty by 2015. To meet the poverty MDGs,33 security situation is particularly worrisome. Of the 36 SSA’s real gross domestic product growth rates will have countries worldwide currently identifi ed as food inse- to double from a base scenario to about 7.5 per cent.34 cure, 21 are in Africa.28 Africa has responded to the challenges posed to sustain- Th e impact of food security in Africa is two-fold: able development by committing itself to and designing fi rstly, the failure of export crops such as cocoa, fl owers policies for creating an enabling environment for growth or coff ee causes trade imbalances that greatly restrict at the regional, sub-regional, national and local levels. African access to international agricultural markets; and, Th ese policies are designed to support sustained eco- secondly, subsistence agriculture becomes less capable nomic growth; environmental integrity; eff orts for peace, of catering to local demands for food, particularly as stability and security; and respect for human rights and populations increase. Moreover, advanced agricultural fundamental freedoms, including the right to develop- producers can adapt quickly to the impact of climate ment and gender equality. Although much remains to change, producing new crops that may crowd out African be done to make these policy objectives a reality, Africa exports to developed nations. (both its governments and its people) is committed to a Sustainable land management can play an important bright future that is more prosperous. role in helping to mitigate the impacts of rising world food prices on poor people in Africa. Although the Sustainable development potential for the adoption of improved land management approaches has increased as a result of rising food prices, Th e negative impact of climate change on economic achieving this potential will require identifying and growth and sustainable development in Africa – which addressing the key constraints that limit the adaptation in turn is simultaneously limiting the ability of African of sustainable land management practices where they countries to cope with climate change – will be the are profi table. Th e extent of agricultural expansion and continent’s priority for the coming decades. Coping the damage caused can be limited by well-implemented with climate variability is a major challenge for the land-use policies and planning, with local resource users people of SSA. Th e high dependence of the economies given a major role in developing and implementing such and rural people of the region on rain-fed agriculture, plans and an economic stake in preserving resources that the prevalence of poverty and food insecurity, and the provide valuable services. limited development of institutional and infrastructural Th e prevailing paradigm among development capacities in this region make coping with natural assistance agencies focuses on the alleviation of poverty, climate variability a perennial challenge. In the past recognising that the benefi ts of macroeconomic growth several decades the number of extreme weather events in have largely bypassed the majority of households, particular sub-regions and the number of people aff ected especially in rural Africa.29 In addition, climate vari- by droughts and fl oods have grown dramatically. ability and change can contribute to land degradation by Th e term ‘drought’ may refer to a meteorological exposing unprotected soil to more extreme conditions.30 drought (precipitation well below average), hydrological drought (low river fl ows and low water levels in rivers CLIMATE CHANGE – AN AFRICAN and lakes, and of groundwater), agricultural drought DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE (low soil moisture), and environmental drought (a combination of the above).35 Th e socio-economic impacts Economics is generally defi ned as the study and process of droughts may arise from the interaction between of producing, distributing (or exchanging), and consum- natural conditions and human factors such as changes ing goods and services. Such a defi nition, however, in in land use, land cover, and the demand for and use of part hides the fact of how economics penetrates every water. Excessive water withdrawals can also exacerbate aspect of social life. Whether one talks of poverty, the impact of droughts. income, jobs, housing, class, education, religion, the arts Th e challenge is being magnifi ed by global climate or social status, all at one level imply and necessitate change in most of SSA. According to most models, a concern with economics.31 Even the major current mean rainfall is predicted to decline in many parts of ideologies and social systems that compete for the the region, especially in Southern Africa, while rainfall minds of peoples, i.e. capitalism, socialism, nationalism, is more likely to increase in parts of eastern and central democracy, etc., have been shaped in signifi cant part by Africa and more extreme weather events are predicted.36

6 The impact of climate change in Africa • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 According to the World Bank’s development report for negative impacts on national economies. Climate thus 2010, the need is for Africa to ensure that the current presents a risk to both livelihoods and governments; at development impacts of climate change on its economies the same time, it also presents opportunities that can and populations are recognised and that a develop- be exploited. ment agenda is integrated into climate negotiations.37 Africa is not currently benefi tting from all that All African countries face the global climate change climate science has to off er. Climate information, which challenge, which threatens their development gains feeds into decision making as a matter of course in and prospects.38 developed countries, is mostly failing to reach decision Ultimately, Africa needs sustainable development, in- makers in useful and useable forms in SSA. A computer- cluding a rapid move toward a low-carbon economy. New driven weather forecasting tool known as General green growth investment opportunities are necessary Circulation Models can be used to understand current to respond to the urgent and growing need for climate climate conditions and project future climate change.43 change adaptation. Development that can be sustained in However, due to a lack of primary data on which to base a world changed by climate must be enabled by building the model, predicting Africa’s climatic changes remains the adaptive capacity of people and defi ning appropriate uncertain and the climate-observation system in Africa technical adaptive measures. is in a far worse state than those of other continents and Th e productivity and sustainability of Africa’s is deteriorating.44 environment are heavily dependent on how climate change is managed. Th e range of livelihoods, with their CLIMATE CHANGE – ANOTHER opportunities for human development and alleviating SECURITY THREAT FACING AFRICA extreme poverty and hunger, extend from total depend- ence on natural resources systems to greater, but not Climate change is also another of the many security complete, independence from such systems. According threats facing Africa, because it is likely to produce a host to a UN report on development in Africa, the region is of social and political problems that are likely to weaken failing to keep pace with the rest of the world in terms states and societies.45 Climate change may thus seriously of development.39 Africa also has the highest proportion threaten political and economic stability in Africa. It of people living in extreme poverty, with a total of 330 may also put severe strain on the capacities of state and million people in this situation in SSA.40 Poverty not only societies to coordinate activities, to communicate and makes people vulnerable, but also limits their choices. In to organise. Th is weakening eff ect is hugely problematic addition, natural disasters such as fl oods can overwhelm in terms of human security, as it will jeopardise health, poor households, destroying their ability to cope, and if livelihoods and development. A decrease in ‘interaction crops fail, subsistence farmers have few or no alternative capacity’ is also likely to decrease the ability of states and means to provide food for their families. Over 70 per cent other social organisations, such as clans, ethnic groups of the people of SSA survive by subsistence agriculture and criminal networks, to exercise large-scale violence, and their livelihoods depend on natural resources.41 but this seemingly positive factor will come at too high a price for it to be seen as such. Climate and environmental disasters that threaten Climate change is … likely human security can induce forced migration and produce competition among communities and nations to produce a host of social for water and basic needs resources, with potential negative consequences for political stability and confl ict and political problems resolution, e.g. when communities and nations struggle to access scarce water resources or when forced migra- tion puts previously separate groups into confl ict over the Africa’s variable climate is already contributing signifi - same resources. Given the history of resource and politi- cantly to its development problems, and yet government cal confl icts in Africa, climate change could aggravate support that would help poor households to adapt to territorial and border disputes and complicate confl ict climate change is very limited. Th e key development resolution and mediation processes. Constraints on sectors of agriculture, water, energy, transport and health water availability are a growing concern in Africa, and are all sensitive to climate variability.42 Climate-related climate change will exacerbate this situation. Confl icts disasters – catastrophic fl oods or prolonged droughts over water resources will have implications for both food – have enormous social and economic impacts that can production and people’s access to food in confl ict zones.46 negate years of development eff orts. Th e negative impacts Declining water resources and diminishing arable of climate change at the household level multiply into land are already intensifying competition for these

Debay tadesse • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 7 resources and creating tensions among displaced popula- of coordination across agencies for proactive disaster tions. Armed confl icts and intensifi ed national security prevention and response strategies.48 concerns minimise the capacity to cope with climate In addition, the AUC, in partnership with the UN change. An estimated one billion people worldwide Economic Commission for Africa and the African could be forced from their homes by 2050, with 250 Development Bank, is supporting a major new initiative, million of them permanently displaced by the eff ects of the Global Climate Change Observing System-Africa climate change.47 Climate for Development, which began in 2007.49 Th e Climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier programme is designed to integrate climate information that exacerbates existing trends, tensions and instability. and services into development in support of Africa’s Th e core challenge is that climate change threatens to progress towards the MDGs. A major objective is to overburden states and regions that are already fragile and mainstream climate information in national develop- confl ict prone. It is important to recognise that the risks ment programmes, focusing initially on the most are not just of a humanitarian nature; they also include climate-sensitive sectors. political and security risks that directly aff ect African Moreover, the recent decisions taken by African governments in particular and the global community in leaders at the AU Summit and the African Partnership general. Moreover, in line with the concept of human se- Forum/UN Economic Commission for Africa Special curity, it is clear that many issues related to the impact of Session on Climate Change, the establishment of the climate change on international security are interlinked, African Centre on Climate Policy and the statement by requiring comprehensive policy responses. the AU spokesperson at the Summit on Climate Change during the session of the UN General Assembly in New York show that Africa’s political leadership is suffi ciently As one of the most vulnerable aware of the threats of climate change. African leaders are united about the need for adaptation and mitigation regions in the world to strategies to cope with the eff ects of climate change on Africa’s development. the projected impacts Speaking at the opening proceedings, Jean Ping, chairperson of the AUC, said Africa suff ers most from a of climate change, Africa problem that it has not created.50 He further commented that Africa is already suff ering from the severe eff ects faces many challenges of climate change; we all must urgently seek solutions. Th e AU, as a lead Pan-African institution, regards climate change as a very critical issue and attaches great CLIMATE CHANGE AND importance to it. Several decisions relating to climate THE AU POSITION change have been taken recently at the level of African heads of state and government. On the occasion of the As one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to Twelft h Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of the projected impacts of climate change, Africa faces State and Government of the AU held in Addis Ababa in many challenges at this critical juncture. Traditionally, February 2009 it was decided that the ongoing climate national development plans, poverty reduction strategy change negotiations should give Africa an opportunity papers and sectoral strategies in climate-sensitive to demand compensation for the damage caused to its sectors have paid little, if any, attention to climate vari- economy due to global warming.51 ability, and even less to climate change. Africa’s ability Th e AUC continues to steer eff orts of AU member to turn a threat into an opportunity hinges on actions states and regional economic communities, as well as taken today. other stakeholders, to deal with multiple challenges Africans have already begun to take some steps facing them, including climate change. African countries in their region. For example, the African Union should proactively join the international community in Commission (AUC) supported the Environment combatting climate change, given its devastating eff ects. Initiative of the New Partnership for Africa’s Although individual states have already taken positive Development (NEPAD) and its related Action Plan, steps by ratifying or acceding to the UNFCCC and the acknowledging the economic importance of climate Kyoto Protocol, it is high time that the AU also acceded variability and change by including a programme area to these agreements, thereby bolstering the eff orts of on combatting climate change in Africa. In addition, individual states. As of 11 April 2007, 195 states and the AUC-supported NEPAD Africa Regional Strategy one regional economic organisation (i.e. the European for Disaster Risk Reduction recognises the importance Economic Community) had ratifi ed the UNFCCC.52

8 The impact of climate change in Africa • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 One hundred and eighty-four parties of the convention regime under which all developed countries would by (including the European Economic Community) have 2020 reduce their emissions to 35–40 per cent below 1990 ratifi ed the Kyoto Protocol to date, and, of these, fi ft y are levels, and by 2050 cut emissions to targets that are what African countries.53 Th e Kyoto Protocol is open to acces- is believed to be necessary to stabilise the concentration sion only by parties to the UNFCCC. Th is means that of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.56 the AU would have to fi rst ratify the UNFCCC before ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. Adaptation to climate change Africa’s concerns and its agenda on environmental change in general and global warming in particular are A number of adaptation options in agriculture face a totally ignored by developed nations, which are the main dilemma. What is adaptation? Th e UNFCCC provides actors aff ecting the global environment. Indeed, Africa a clear answer: ‘Adaptation is processes through which has tried to present its case and pleas to the interna- societies make themselves better able to cope with an tional communities and governments, as well as non- uncertain future. Adapting to climate change entails governmental institutions, on the dire present and future taking the right measures to reduce the negative eff ects consequences of climate change on Africa. Th e African of climate change (or exploit the positive ones) by voice that was individually presented was not seriously making the appropriate adjustments and changes.’57 considered. Nevertheless, for the fi rst time in history, Th e Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Africa forged a common position and formed a single (IPCC) defi nes adaptation as ‘[a]djustment in natural negotiating team empowered to negotiate and represent or human systems in response to actual or expected all the member states of the AU at the global talks that climatic stimuli or their eff ects, which moderates harm took place in December 2009 in Copenhagen. or exploits benefi cial opportunities’.58 Adaptation also involves learning to manage new risks and strengthen- ing resilience in the face of change.59 As late as April Africa contributes little to 2007, a report by the IPCC warned that Africa was not acting quickly enough to stem the dire economic and greenhouse gas emissions, environmental consequences of excessive greenhouse gas emissions.60 but will seriously suff er from Th e Secretariat of the UNFCCC estimates that US$ 220 million per year will be required by African the undesirable impacts countries to adapt to climate change by the year 2030.61 According to Article 4 (4) of the UNFCCC, developed of climate change countries are under a legal obligation to provide fi nancial resources to African countries to adapt to climate change.62 Although there are some proposals Th e AU was mandated to work out the modalities of for funding for adaptation measures through the Global such representation. Th e fi rst meeting of the Conference Environment Facility; the Adaptation Fund; the Least on Climate Change that convened on 31 August 2009 Developed Countries Fund; the Special Climate Change in Tripoli adopted a negotiating process, structure and Fund; and bilateral, regional and other multilateral coordination mechanism for Africa’s common posi- channels, the proposed measures need to be signifi cantly tion on global climate change negotiations. A number scaled up to match the challenge of adaptation to climate of decisions related to climate change were also taken change in Africa. Africa should aggressively demand during the Th irteenth Ordinary Session of the Assembly that developed countries meet the cost of adaptation to of the AU in July 2009 in Sirte, Libya.54 Th e AUC has climate change in Africa. been given a clear mandate to forge ahead with the It has been argued that developed countries, whose implementation of the climate change programme, in greenhouse gas emissions are largely responsible for partnership with other strategic institutions. It was also climate change, should provide fi nancial resources to decided to establish a Conference of African Heads of Africa to adapt to climate change. Africa contributes State and Governments on Climate Change, as well as little to greenhouse gas emissions, but will seriously to set up a unit to deal with climate change at the AUC. suff er from the undesirable impacts of climate change. Finally, the AU became a state party to the UNFCCC Th erefore, Africa should be compensated for the damages and Kyoto Protocol.55 In addition, during the Twelft h caused to its development prospects by global warming. African Ministerial Conference on the Environment in Th is in line with the ‘polluter pays’ principle, since it is June 2008 the conference proposed that Africa should owed not as aid from developed countries to Africa, but seek agreement on a future global emissions reduction as compensatory fi nance from high-emission countries

Debay tadesse • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 9 to those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate are fast disappearing; rangelands in the Sahel are rapidly change. Such compensation should not only be adequate, being turned into desert; and there seem to be few, if any, predictable and accessible, but also must come from parts of the continent that are immune to this general clearly identifi able sources, and should be administered trend of decline. Actions aimed at alleviating the con- by an entity in which Africa plays a role consistent with sequences of deforestation and forest degradation have its numbers. been considered in future positive-incentive mechanisms Climate change will exacerbate poverty unless vul- for emissions reduction, taking into account the role nerable populations, particularly the poorest in Africa, of forested areas in the regulation of the global climate are assisted in building climate-resilient livelihoods. Th is system, as well as the benefi ciaries of land development will require the following: eff orts to ensure the maintenance of forest areas and the implementation of sustainable agriculture.63 In addition, ■ Adaptation measures: including water-wise irrigation deforestation caused by illegal logging, the felling of systems, low-/no-till agricultural practices, income trees for fi rewood and charcoal for cooking, and ‘slash diversifi cation and disaster risk management and burn’ farming practices have reduced biodiversity ■ Initiatives to help small farmers and other vulnerable in Africa and weakened the continent’s ability to adapt groups to protect and promote agricultural produc- to climate change. Th e major portion of carbon dioxide tion, including improving agricultural extension release in Africa is contributed by burning fossil fuels services so as to increase yields and the establishment and the conversion of tropical forests to facilitate agricul- of independent networks of information exchange tural production, as well as lumber cutting for domestic between and among communities across the region and international industry. Yet this situation refl ects the ■ Th e empowerment of women and other marginalised reality of energy insecurity in Africa in terms of increas- social groups to overcome the additional barriers they ing demand due to population growth and dwindling face to adaptation supplies of traditional fossil fuels. ■ Inclusive, transparent and accountable adaptation Heavy reliance on non-renewable fuel sources for planning with the eff ective participation of especially domestic energy supply in most of SSA contributes to vulnerable populations across the continent ecosystem degradation, which is threatening wildlife and endangered species, and destroying natural forests. In regard to agricultural production and water, climate African countries need to urgently build capacity at all adaptation may include the following: levels to respond to the challenge of climate change. Capacity building is urgently required in the areas of ■ Th e adoption of varieties and species of crops with in- human resource expertise in climate science and institu- creased resistance to heat stress, shocks and drought tional frameworks. Capacity-building frameworks under ■ Th e modifi cation of irrigation techniques, including the international negotiation process are intended to amount, timing or technology (e.g. the drip irrigation serve as a guide for the climate change capacity-building system) activities of funding bodies. ■ Th e adoption of water-effi cient technologies to ‘harvest’ water, conserve soil moisture, and reduce Financial mechanisms siltation and saltwater intrusion ■ Improved water management to prevent water Developed countries are under an obligation to provide logging, erosion and nutrient leaching fi nancial resources to assist African countries to imple- ■ Th e modifi cation of crop calendars, i.e. the timing ment the UNFCCC. In this respect, a fi nancial mecha- and location of cropping activities nism to provide funds to developing countries has been ■ Th e integration of the crop, livestock, forestry and established.64 Despite the existence of this mechanism, fi shery sectors at farm and catchment levels limited fi nancial resources have been made available ■ Th e implementation of seasonal climate forecasting to Africa. Th ree main issues must be managed to get ■ Additional adaptation strategies involving land-use adaptation fi nancing right, i.e. the mobilisation, manage- changes that take advantage of modifi ed agro-climate ment and allocation of resources. conditions. Th ere is therefore a need for Africa to aggressively push for a review of this fi nancial mechanism to pave the Mitigation of climate change way for the provision of fi nancial assistance to African and capacity building countries to address the climate change challenge. In addition, a compensation fund should be established and Th e quality of the environment continues to decline in allocated to African countries on the basis of clear cri- many parts of Africa: the continent’s last great forests teria, particularly each country’s need for compensation

10 The impact of climate change in Africa • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 and the country plans in which adaptation measures on climate change trends and to adequately plan and should be incorporated. be better prepared to support AU member states in undertaking mitigation and adaptation measures on the The AU, UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol continent. It will also enhance partners’ coordination and the implementation of climate change activities on Th e AU has recognised the need to encourage its member the continent in accordance with national, regional and states to become state parties to the UNFCCC and the international obligations. Kyoto Protocol in order for the AU to eff ectively negoti- ate in future rounds of negotiations in its own right. CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS Th is will be in addition to ratifi cation by individual AU AND A WAY FORWARD member states. Since August 2007 about 50 African countries have already become parties to the UNFCC Although for the large part developed nations are re- and Kyoto Protocol.65 Th e negotiating structure proposed sponsible for climate change and have contributed most for the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol negotiations process is to global emissions, it is poorer people in Africa who will a negotiation team composed of a Conference of African suff er the most and pay the price for the catastrophic Heads of State on Climate Change comprising Algeria, impacts of climate change. Moreover, the impact of Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Mauritius, Mozambique, climate change on broader human security and poverty Nigeria and Uganda; and a team of Negotiators/Experts could be very signifi cant, as so many African livelihoods on Climate Change from all member states who are are dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Climate change country parties.66 is intensifying water scarcity in Africa. As demand for On the other hand, one has to realise that the existing water hits the limits of fi nite supply, potential confl icts adaptation mechanisms and resources under the Kyoto are brewing across the continent. Protocol designed to mitigate climate change’s eff ects on Th e risks of violent confl ict in countries where Africa (and other developing regions) have been directed populations live in fragile and unstable conditions that at limiting future carbon emissions rather than ad- make them vulnerable to climate change eff ects are real. dressing the region’s vulnerability and lack of resilience As pressure for freshwater supplies rises due to climate to the impact of climate change on its economies and change, pollution, access to water, and its allocation and populations. What are missed in the Kyoto Protocol are use are becoming increasingly critical concerns that the facts and links between climate change and droughts, may have profound consequences for societal stability desertifi cation, fl oods, coastal storms and soil erosion in Africa. Many countries in eastern Africa may soon be – contemporary disaster events that threaten lives and caught up in water disputes unless they move quickly to livelihoods and hinder Africa’s economic growth and establish agreements on how to share reservoirs, rivers social progress. and underground water aquifers. Water, essential for human survival, is also necessary for nearly every sector of human activity, including agriculture, industrial Irrigation … can also production and power generation, and is a key means for transporting people and goods. In addition, water oft en provide a base for growth, has a substantial emotional and symbolic value, and is also needed for keeping natural ecosystems intact. income and employment in disfavoured rural areas Recommendations While irrigation stands out as a measure for improving agricultural productivity, it can also provide a base for Th e AUC, through convening preparatory and consulta- growth, income and employment in disfavoured rural tive meetings, has mobilised all African negotiators on areas, thereby mitigating one cause of rural–urban climate change with the aim of implementing a common migration. Also, the need becomes apparent to address negotiating position on key climate change issues. Th e the issue of alternative energy such as solar, hydro and commission has also embarked on the development wind power to mitigate the current problem of deforesta- of a comprehensive strategy on climate for Africa. tion, overgrazing, drought and soil degradation in many However, more needs to be done and the AUC needs parts of Africa. to act aggressively in terms of creating a specialised Environmental change may very well be capable unit on climate change and desertifi cation control, of forcing migration. Deforestation for cultivation, which will strengthen its capacity to be more informed construction timber and wood fuel has accelerated

Debay tadesse • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 11 rural–urban migration in Africa, which in turn has Th e December 2009 Copenhagen talks on climate contributed to poor electricity and power supplies, pollu- change and the uncertainty that followed off ered a tion, lack of clean water, few employment opportunities, powerful and sobering illustration of how far the world’s poor education and health provision, poor sewerage governments are from negotiating a binding treaty to systems and lack of shelter in the continent’s cities. In deal with climate change. Th ose who believe that a robust this context, reducing emissions from deforestation and and binding climate framework is essential have been left degradation off ers a promising mechanism for simulta- depressed and demoralised. Many now fear that a global neously delivering mitigation, adaptation and economic governance system that is unable to respond to the great- benefi ts while sustaining vital ecosystem services in est threat of the 21st century could, in fact, be broken. rural Africa. If widely adopted, adaptation strategies in agricul- A way forward tural production systems have a substantial potential to off set negative climate change impacts and can Without urgent action, climate change will exacerbate even take advantage of positive ones, while reversing confl ict and natural disasters and impede development the current trend of rural–urban migration in Africa. projects in Africa. Th e world’s governments not only Furthermore, environmental information and aware- have a responsibility to work constructively for a global ness should aim at increasing public awareness and agreement to manage climate change, but should also understanding of the community of interest and the provide an enabling policy framework covering man- common eco-system that the environment creates. agement, planning and service delivery functions for Th e eff ect is enhanced when educational institutions adaptation that facilitate and support local institutions are included in awareness-raising activities. Activities and other actors’ eff orts. Th ey should also ensure that should especially target future generations in African devolved administrative responsibilities are matched by countries by providing environmental education to resources and technical capacity. In addition, African the general public, primary and secondary schools, governments need to invest more in climate and meteor- and universities. ological information; biophysical monitoring; and early Moreover, the mass media have a vital, but so far warning, preparedness and response mechanisms, and largely neglected, role to play in climate change issues integrate such data into their planning. Climate change in Africa. Th ey can communicate with the general can off er new opportunities for productive and sustain- public and local communities, both raising awareness of able land management practices, such as reforestation, climate issues generally and when specifi c threats arise improved water management, integrated soil fertility by conveying the risks and the recommended responses. management, conservation agriculture, agro forestry and Radio is still the most eff ective way of reaching rural improved rangeland management. stakeholders in SSA, but new information and communi- cation technologies should be explored as well. Moreover, the AUC should continue to lead eff orts of NOTES AU member states and regional economic communities, 1 Ban Ki-moon, secretary-general of the United Nations (UN), as well as other stakeholders, to deal with the multiple UN Headquarters, New York, September 2009. challenges associated with climate change. Finally, it is up to individual African countries to proactively join the 2 Peter Holden et al, A peaceful environment or a hostile climate? Journal of Peace Research and Action 14 (January international community in combatting climate change, 2009), 23–41. given its devastating impacts. In conclusion, climate change is already aff ecting 3 FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations), Climate change and food security: a framework people across Africa and will wipe out eff orts to tackle document, Rome: FAO, 2008, 8. poverty unless urgent actions are taken now in terms 4 Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, addressing the of adaptation, mitigation and compensation. Failure to Twelft h Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, Nairobi, reach an equitable agreement on climate change negotia- Kenya, 15 November 2006. tions may have dire consequences for Africa in particular 5 IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society), and the world in general. Furthermore, climate change Climate risk management in Africa: learning from practice, is a serous global challenge that demands urgent, New York: Columbia University Press, 2007, 2. cooperative, fair and shared responsibility to act. To 6 IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society), achieve eff ective cooperation in terms of climate change A gap analysis for the implementation of the Global Climate issues, it will be important to involve key stakeholders Observing System Programme in Africa, IRI technical report from the climate change community where they are not 06-01, New York: IRI, 2006, http://www.intersectweb.org/ yet involved. node/113 (accessed May 2010).

12 The impact of climate change in Africa • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 7 Molly E Hellmuth, Anne Moorhea and Jim Williams, Climate 33 Th e MDGs are eight international development goals that 192 risk management in Africa: learning from practice, Silver UN member states and 23 international organisations agreed Spring: IRI, 2007, v. to achieve by 2015. Th ey include reducing extreme poverty, reducing child mortality rates, fi ghting disease epidemics such 8 FAO, Climate change and food security, 7. as AIDS, and developing a global partnership for development. 9 Ibid. 34 Of the 28 countries for which household surveys are available, 10 IRI, A gap analysis for the implementation of the Global only fi ve seem well positioned to meet the poverty goal, i.e. Climate Observing System Programme in Africa. Cameroon, Ethiopia, Senegal, South Africa and Swaziland 11 Ibid. (World Bank and IMF [International Monetary Fund], Global monitoring report 2005: Millennium Development Goals from 12 Ibid, 5. consensus to momentum, Washington, DC: World Bank and 13 Africa’s population ‘emergency’, http://www.thedailygreen. IMF, 2005). com/environmental -news/latest/africa-population-47010905 35 UNEP (UN Environment Programme), Climate change and (accessed March 2010). water, IPCC technical paper VI, New York: UNEP, 2008, 33. 14 UNESCO (UN Educational, Scientifi c and Cultural 36 Ibid. Organisation), Water for people, water for life: the United 37 World Bank, World Bank development report 2010: develop- Nations world water development report, 2003, http://unesdoc. ment and climate change, http://www.ameinfo.com/211919. unesco.org/images/0012/001295/129556e.pdf (accessed June htm/ (accessed 11 July 2010.) 2010). 38 Ibid. 15 Hany Besada and Nelson K Sewankambao (eds), Climate change in Africa: adaptation, mitigation and governance 39 UN (United Nations), Th e Millennium Development Goals challenges, CIGI special report, 2009, 9, http://www.cigionline. report 2006, 2006, http:/unstats.un.org/unsd/mdg/Resources/ org/node/2952 (accessed May 2010). Static/Progress2006/MDGReport2006.pdf. 16 UNDP (UN Development Programme), Fighting climate 40 Ibid. change: human solidarity in a divided world, New York: UNDP, 41 Ibid. 2008, 1. 42 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Executive summary, 17 FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Th e Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa: Nations), FAOSTAT website, 2008, http://faostat.org/default. Environmental Protection Authority in Collaboration with aspx (accessed 19 April 2010). Ministry of Economic Development and Cooperation, April 18 Ibid. 2004, 16. 19 Ibid. 43 IRI, A gap analysis for the Implementation of the Global Climate Observing System Programme in Africa. 20 IPS (Inter Press Service News Agency), Climate change and diminishing fi sh stocks, http.www.ipsnews.net/ (accessed 26 44 Brown et al, Climate change and security in Africa, 17. July 2010). 45 Holden et al, A peaceful environment or a hostile climate? 21 FAO, Climate change and food security, iii. 46 P H Gleick, Water in crisis: a guide to the world’s fresh water 22 Ibid, 3. resources, New York: Oxford University Press, 1993, 15. 23 Ibid. 47 Richard Black, Environmental refugees: myth or reality? New Issues in Refugee Research, working paper no. 34, Geneva: 24 S Devereux and S Maxwell (eds), Food security in sub-Saharan United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees, 1–19. Africa, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies, 2001, 20. 48 AU (African Union), Report on implementation of the AU 25 Ibid. Assembly decision on the African common position on climate 26 Ibid. change, Executive Council Fift eenth Ordinary Session, Sirte, Libya, 24–30 June 2009. 27 Robert Mendelsohn et al, Climate change and agriculture in Africa: impact assessment and adaptation strategies, London: 49 Hellmuth, Moorhea and Williams, Climate risk management Earthscan, FAO, 2009. in Africa, v. 28 Ibid. 50 Act on Copenhagen: African position on climate change, 2009, http://.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/en/global-action/africa/ 29 Norman Uphoff , Milton J Esman and Anirudh Krishana, ethiopia/africaposition. Reasons for success: learning from instructive experiences in rural development, Connecticut: Kumarian Press, 1998, 1. 51 Ibid. 30 Ibid, 68. 52 Ibid. 31 Daniel Fusfeld, Th e age of the economist, Chicago: Scott 53 Ibid. Foresman Press, 1977, 376. 54 AU (African Union), Assembly of the African Union, Th irteenth Ordinary Session, Sirte, Libya, 1–3 July 2009. 32 Robert Heilbroner, Th e worldly philosophers, New York: Oxford University Press, 1972, 103. 55 Ibid.

Debay tadesse • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 13 56 Ibid. 62 Ibid. 57 UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), 63 AU (African Union), Algiers Declaration on the Climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in Deliberations of the Meeting of African Ministers of developing countries, Bonn: UNFCCC, 2007, 12. Environment on Climate Change, Algiers, 19–20 November 58 IPCC Online, Glossary of terms used in the IPCC Th ird 2008. Assessment Report, 2001, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ 64 AU, Report on implementation of the AU Assembly decision on IPCC_Th ird_Assessment_Report (accessed December 2009). the African common position on climate change. 59 Ibid. 65 Kyoto Protocol, http://www.unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol/ 60 Ibid. items/2830.php (accessed July 2010). 61 AU, Report on implementation of the AU Assembly decision on 66 AU, Algiers Declaration on the Deliberations of the Meeting of the African common position on climate change, 1. African Ministers of Environment on Climate Change.

14 The impact of climate change in Africa • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 ANNEXURE 1 – and transferring environmentally friendly technologies, THE 1997 KYOTO PROTOCOL provisions for sustainably managing carbon sinks, preparations to adapt to climate change, plans for climate Th e 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which went into eff ect in research, observation of the global climate system and 2005, is the major global warming treaty currently in data exchange, and plans to promote education, training force. Under the treaty, the nations of Europe, Japan, and public awareness relating to climate change. Canada, and most other developed countries committed Apart from these general commitments, the themselves to reducing greenhouse emissions – mainly UNFCCC divides countries into three main groups that carbon dioxide from fossil fuels – which are to blame for are subject to diff erent types of commitments. global warming. Generally, these nations are supposed Annex I Parties, i.e., industrialized countries that to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 1990 baseline were members of the Organisation for Economic levels by 2012. Th e US has not ratifi ed the treaty. China, Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1992, and India and other developing countries have ratifi ed it, but countries with economies in transition (EIT Parties) are are exempted from any obligation to reduce emissions. required to adopt climate change policies and measures Notwithstanding the seriousness of global warming, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the Kyoto Protocol has failed to reduce greenhouse gas 1990 levels by 2000. Th ey are expected to take the lead in emissions and has had no eff ect on global warming. dealing with climate change and must report more oft en and in greater detail than non-Annex I Parties. Th e EIT ANNEXURE 2 – Parties within the Annex I group are given “fl exibility” in UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK implementing their commitments, e.g. to select a baseline CONVENTION ON CLIMATE year other than 1990 for their specifi c commitments. CHANGE (UNFCCC) Annex II Parties, the OECD members within the Annex I group, have special responsibilities in relation Th e United Nations Framework Convention on Climate to providing fi nancial resources to enable developing Change (UNFCCC) was adopted on 9 May 1992 by the countries to undertake emission reduction activities Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee established under the UNFCCC and to help them adapt to the for its negotiation. In June 1992 the UNFCCC was adverse eff ects of climate change. Th ey are also urged opened for signature. It entered into force on 21 March to promote the development and transfer of environ- 1994. By August 2005, the UNFCCC had 197 State mentally friendly technologies to EIT Parties and Parties, making it one of the most universally-supported developing countries. multilateral environmental agreements. Non-Annex I Parties are mainly developing countries. Within this group are subsets of countries recognized by Objective and approach the UNFCCC as being especially vulnerable to climate change or to the potential economic impacts of climate Th e ultimate objective of the Convention is to achieve change response measures. Th e 48 Parties classifi ed by stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the the United Nations as least developed countries (LDCs) atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous are given special consideration under the UNFCCC due anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such to their limited capacity to respond to climate change a level should be achieved within a time-frame suf- and adapt to its adverse eff ects. Non-Annex I Parties fi cient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate have no quantitative obligations under the UNFCCC. change, to ensure that food production is not threatened Submission of their national communications is tied and to enable economic development to proceed in a to funding received to cover their reporting costs. sustainable manner. LDCs can submit their national communications at All Parties to the UNFCCC are subject to general their discretion. commitments to respond to climate change. Th ey are To respond to the needs of the most vulnerable required to compile an inventory of their greenhouse gas countries, the UNFCCC has provisions on investment, emission and submit reports, known as national com- insurance and technology transfer. munications, on actions they are taking to implement the To supplement other available funding mechanisms, Convention. Th ese reports provide the means to monitor special funds have been created under the UNFCCC, progress made by Parties in meeting their commitments namely: and in achieving the Convention’s ultimate objective. To focus their actions, Parties to the UNFCCC ■ A Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) that exists must prepare national programmes containing climate to fi nance projects relating to capacity-building, change mitigation measures, provisions for developing adaptation, technology transfer, climate change

Debay tadesse • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 15 mitigation and economic diversifi cation for countries report to SBI, which then makes recommendations to the highly dependent on income from fossil fuels COP. An Expert Group on Technology Transfer (EGTT) ■ A Least Developed Countries Fund (LDC Fund) was established in 2001 to oversee implementation of intended to support a special work programme to the framework for meaningful and eff ective actions on assist LDCs technology transfer and to identify ways of advancing ac- tivities in this area. Th e EGTT makes recommendations Institutional structure to SBSTA which can then forwarded them to the COP. Th e Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP): Th is is the supreme (IPCC): Th e IPCC, an independent institution created body of the UNFCCC, tasked to review the implementa- by the World Meteorological Organization and the tion of the UNFCCC, adopt decisions to further develop United Nations Environment Programme, works with the UNFCCC’s rules, and negotiate new commitments. the UNFCCC and is a crucial source of information on Th e COP currently meets annually. climate change. It publishes a comprehensive progress Subsidiary Body for Scientifi c and Technological report on the state of climate change science every fi ve Advice (SBSTA): SBSTA provides advice to the COP years, as well as Special Reports or Technical Papers on on matters of science, technology, and methodology, specifi c issues at the request of the COP or SBSTA. including guidelines for improving standards of national communications and emission inventories. SBSTA meets Work areas of the Convention at least twice a year, with its last sessions of the year being held in conjunction with the sessions of the COP. Th e Buenos Aires Programme of Work on Adaptation and Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI): SBI Response Measures, adopted at COP 10 (Buenos Aires, helps the COP to assess and review the UNFCCC’s Argentina, 2004) emphasizes implementation of activities implementation and deals with fi nancial and administra- identifi ed in the context of national communications and tive matters. SBI sessions are held at the same time as foresees further action on vulnerability and adaptation as SBSTA sessions. well as information gathering and methodologies. Secretariat: Th e secretariat is responsible for support- Capacity building activities are guided by two ing all the institutions involved in the climate change decisions adopted at COP 7, namely the Framework process, particularly the COP, the subsidiary bodies and for Capacity Building in Developing Countries and the their Bureaux. It makes arrangements for sessions of the Framework for Capacity Building in Countries with UNFCCC bodies, helps Parties to fulfi ll their commit- Economies in Transition. Th ese frameworks emphasize ments, compiles and disseminates data and information, that capacity building should be country-driven, involve and confers with other relevant international agencies learning-by-doing, and build on existing national and and treaties. It is based in Bonn, Germany. bilateral activities. Financial mechanism: Th e Global Environment To increase and improve the transfer and access to Facility (GEF) operates the UNFCCC’s fi nancial mecha- environmentally sound technologies and know-how, nism, which channels funds to developing countries on a the Framework for Meaningful and Eff ective Actions to grant or loan basis, including funds received from Annex Enhance the Implementation of Article 4, Paragraph 5, II Parties. Th e GEF reports on its climate change work to of the Convention (on technology transfer) was adopted the COP every year. As part of the Marrakesh Accords at COP 7. agreed to at COP 7 (Marrakesh, Morocco, 2001), the GEF At COP 8 (New Delhi, India, 2002), a fi ve-year New expanded the scope of activities eligible for funding, Delhi Work Programme on Article 6 of the Convention including work on adaptation and capacity-building. Th e (education, training and public awareness) was adopted. GEF manages the SCCF and the LDC Fund. Th e Work Programme defi nes the scope of possible Expert Groups: Th e LDC Expert Group, estab- activities at national and international levels, encourages lished in 2001, supports LDCs in the preparation the spread and exchange of information and promotes of their national adaptation programmes of action. partnership and networking eff orts. International Th e Consultative Group of Experts on National partnerships and synergies fi gure prominently in the Communications from Parties not included in Annex work programme. I to the Convention (CGE) was established in 1999 to Th e centerpiece of work with the LDCs is the prepara- look into ways to improve national communications tion of national programmes of action (NAPAs) that are prepared by non-Annex I Parties. At least one member intended to communicate priority activities addressing of the CGE from LDC Parties and at least one member the urgent and immediate needs and concerns of LDCs of the CGE from Annex II Parties must be members of relating to adaptation to the adverse eff ects of climate the LDC Expert Group. Th e LDC Expert Group and CGE change. NAPAs are to be prepared in accordance

16 The impact of climate change in Africa • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 with the Guidelines for the Preparation of National Source: http://www.tematea.org/?q=node/11 (accessed Adaptation Programmes of Actions adopted at COP 7. July 2010).

Debay tadesse • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010 17 ➤

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Th is paper is concerned with the fact that African nations are among the lightest polluters, yet analysts say they will suff er the most from climate change in their pursuit of water and food security, sustainable development, and political and economic sustainability. Th erefore the paper reviews the relationships among climate change, water and food security, confl icts, and As a leading African human security research development. It also argues that there is a need for climate institution, the Institute for Security Studies change information in Africa and reviews the status of interna- (ISS) works towards a stable and peaceful Africa tional climate agreements related to adaptation, mitigation and characterised by sustainable development, human compensation. In addition, the paper argues that even if climate rights, the rule of law, democracy, collaborative change by its nature may not necessarily lead to violent inter- security and gender mainstreaming. The ISS realises state confl icts, scarcity of water and food in Africa has already this vision by: nurtured political tensions among nations, thus retarding eff orts towards sustainable development. ■ Undertaking applied research, training and capacity building ABOUT THE AUTHOR ■ Working collaboratively with others ■ Facilitating and supporting policy formulation Dr Debay Tadesse is a historian and Senior Researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. He ■ Monitoring trends and policy implementation received his BA in History from Georgia State University, ■ Collecting, interpreting and disseminating Atlanta, Georgia, and his MA in African History and PhD in information African Studies, specialising in Public Policy and Development ■ Networking on national, regional and in Africa, from Howard University in Washington DC. His international levels work is aimed at understanding how environmental, economic and political change impact on the peoples of Africa and how policy reform can bring real change to their lives. His recent © 2010, Institute for Security Studies publications include Africa’s emerging global partnerships and Copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in the Institute China-Africa partnerships: challenges and opportunities. Th e for Security Studies, and no part may be reproduced author would like to thank the internal and external review- in whole or in part without the express permission, in ers for their helpful comments and suggestions on the earlier writing, of both the authors and the publishers. draft , namely Dr Rose Mwebaza, Dr Getnet Alemu and Mehari The opinions expressed do not necessarily refl ect those of the Institute, its trustees, members of the Council or donors. Authors Taddele Maru. contribute to ISS publications in their personal capacity.

Published by the Institute for Security Studies, FUNDER P O Box 1787, Brooklyn Square 0075 Pretoria, South Africa Th is publication was made possible through funding provided Tel: (27-12) 346 9500 Fax: (27-12) 460 0998 by the Ministry of Foreign Aff airs of the Federal Republic of [email protected] Germany and Humanity United. In addition, general Institute www.issafrica.org funding is provided by the governments of Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. Design, layout and printing Marketing Support Services

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The impact of climate change in Africa • ISS Paper 220 • November 2010