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Aviation Gridlock Understanding the Options and Seeking Solutions

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Aviation Gridlock Understanding the Options and Seeking Solutions TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH E-CIRCULAR Number E-C029 March 2001 Aviation Gridlock Understanding the Options and Seeking Solutions Phase 1: Airport Capacity and Demand Management February 16, 2001 Washington, D.C. TRANSPORTATION NUMBER E-C029, MARCH 2001 RESEARCH ISSN 0097-8515 E-CIRCULAR Aviation Gridlock Understanding the Options and Seeking Solutions Phase 1: Airport Capacity and Demand Management February 16, 2001 Washington, D.C. Cosponsored by Federal Aviation Administration Transportation Research Board TRB STEERING COMMITTEE FOR OVERSIGHT OF FAA-SPONSORED WORKSHOPS ON AVIATION ISSUES (A1T74) Agam N. Sinha, Chair, and Chair, Aviation Section (A1J00) Gerald W. Bernstein, Chair, Committee on Aviation Economics and Forecasting (A1J02) Jody Yamanaka Clovis, Chair, Committee on Airport Terminals and Ground Access (A1J04) Geoffrey David Gosling, Chair, Committee on Aviation System Planning (A1J08) Gerald S. McDougall, Chair, Committee on Light Commercial and General Aviation (A1J03) Michael T. McNerney, Chair, Committee on Aircraft/Airport Compatibility, (A1J07) Roger P. Moog, Chair, Committee on Intergovernmental Relations in Aviation (A1J01) Saleh A. Mumayiz, Chair, Committee on Airfield and Airspace Capacity and Delay (A1J05) Daniel T. Wormhoudt, Chair, Task Force on Environmental Impacts of Aviation (A1J52) Joseph A. Breen, TRB Staff Representative TRB website: Transportation Research Board national-academies.org/trb National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 The Transportation Research Board is a unit of the National Research Council, a private, nonprofit institution that is the principal operating agency of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. Under a congressional charter granted to the National Academy of Sciences, the National Research Council provides scientific and technical advice to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Transportation Research Board is distributing this Circular to make the information contained herein available for use by individual practitioners in state and local transportation agencies, researchers in academic institutions, and other members of the transportation research community. The information in this Circular was taken directly from the submissions of the authors. This document is not a report of the National Research Council or of the National Academy of Sciences. Preface s pressure increases on the national airspace system, including airports and Asupporting facilities and services, it is important that all elements of the system— commercial airlines; passengers; local, state, and federal governments; business and industry—understand and work together to maintain the world’s safest and most efficient aviation system. To address this need, the Federal Aviation Administration and the Transportation Research Board have launched a series of three 1-day seminars on Aviation Gridlock: Understanding the Options and Seeking Solutions, with sessions in February, April, and May 2001 in the Lecture Room of the National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. The seminars aim to enhance public understanding of the issues, organizations, and possible solutions to air transportation problems as the nation enters a period of increased demand, limited capacity, and inclement weather patterns traditionally associated with summer. Following are the topics and schedule for the seminars on Aviation Gridlock: Understanding the Options and Seeking Solutions: • Phase I: Airport Capacity and Demand Management, February 16, 2001; • Phase II: Airport Capacity and Infrastructure, April 11, 2001; and • Phase III: Weather and Technology, May 16, 2001. Phase I of the seminar series—the proceedings published in this Circular—focuses on demand management by examining three areas. The first is airport delay and congestion, addressed by looking at the anatomy of a delay, airline scheduling, and finally the customer’s perspective. The second set of presentations reviews administrative and market demand management options. The third and final group of presentations covers the operational, legal, and political challenges in adopting new demand management strategies. Phase II of the series examines airport capacity through improvements in infrastructure; and Phase III focuses on weather as an impediment to air travel and on the technologies to ameliorate the negative effects of weather. Each seminar features presenters from selected elements of the aviation industry and engages an audience of individuals representing the industry, the federal government, the business community, the general public, and the media. Contents Introduction and Framing...............................................................................................4 Jeffrey N. Shane, Hogan and Hartson Jane F. Garvey, Federal Aviation Administration Panel 1 UNDERSTANDING AIRPORT DELAY AND CONGESTION Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 8 James A. Wilding, Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Anatomy of a Delay........................................................................................................... 9 Agam N. Sinha, MITRE Corporation Customers’ View ............................................................................................................. 21 Kevin P. Mitchell, Business Travel Coalition Airline Scheduling........................................................................................................... 24 Joel Antolini, Airline Planning Group Question-and-Answer Session........................................................................................ 32 Panel 2 DEMAND MANAGEMENT OPTIONS Background...................................................................................................................... 41 Frank Berardino, GRA Market-Based Solutions.................................................................................................. 45 Steven A. Morrison, Northeastern University Administrative Solutions ................................................................................................ 49 William R. DeCota, Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Question-and-Answer Session........................................................................................ 54 Panel 3 CHALLENGES IN ADOPTING NEW DEMAND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 60 Jeffrey N. Shane, Hogan and Hartson Patrick V. Murphy, Jr., Gerchick–Murphy Associates Operational Challenges .................................................................................................. 61 Randall Malin, Malin and Associates 2 Legal Challenges.............................................................................................................. 64 Scott P. Lewis, Palmer and Dodge Political Challenges ......................................................................................................... 68 Claire Barrett, Claire Barrett and Associates Question-and-Answer Session........................................................................................ 74 APPENDIXES Agenda.............................................................................................................................. 86 Biographical Summaries................................................................................................. 88 List of Attendees............................................................................................................ 101 Background Information for the TRB/FAA Seminar ............................................... 110 General Background..................................................................................................... 113 3 Introduction and Framing JEFFREY N. SHANE Hogan and Hartson JANE F. GARVEY Federal Aviation Administration Jeffrey Shane: Good morning everybody. Welcome to the National Academy of Sciences building. We’re delighted to welcome you all to this very important day on consideration of the problem of aviation gridlock. The program is sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration and the Transportation Research Board, which is an arm of the National Academy of Sciences. We’re here to discuss probably the most important and the most pressing transportation issue of our time—the issue of capacity in our aviation system. I think it is fair to say that everyone is familiar with the problem in one way or another. It is easy to view the problem at a variety of different levels. It is certainly a problem at the personal level. Each of us has experienced delay and congestion in our own travel, both business and leisure, and it is a very annoying prospect when you encounter it. But, when you multiply that annoyance times the millions of travelers that are experiencing delays and gridlock in the skies today, it is easy to understand the extent to which it represents a very serious hit on the nation’s economic productivity. So, to that extent, it is not just an annoyance—it’s a very serious economic issue. To the extent that access to the system is limited, it is a larger issue than that. It is widely understood today that the air transportation system represents huge economic opportunities to communities throughout the country. A community’s connection to the air transportation system represents jobs, business,
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