Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713

SECURITY DILEMMA & ARMs RACE IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION POST-COLD WAR ERA Muhammad Arsy Ash Shiddiqy1 International Relations Department Universitas Islam Riau, [email protected] Student of Doctoral Program, Universitas Padjadjaran

ABSTRACT

The security conditions in the Southeast Asian region are relatively safe, there have never been direct confrontations or head-to-head wars between countries in the region, if ever there had been a confrontation between Indonesia and Malaysia, but its not happen yet. During the cold war era, security in Southeast Asia was guaranteed by the two super power country, which are United States of America and Soviet Union. Some sort of bias think occur in this region, when the cold war ends European countries are committed to reducing their military budget, and the opposite is true in Southeast Asia. After the end of the cold war and the absence of security guarantees from the two countries, Southeast Asian countries began aggressively increasing their military budgets and increasing their defense force capabilities so that the Security Dilemma and Arms Race happen in this region. In particular, Indonesia has experienced an increase in the military budget from year to year, starting from 2007 Rp. 32 T to 2017 108 T. The increasing of military budget also occurs in all Southeast Asian countries, and this is clear evidence of the Security Dilemma and Arms Race in the Southeast Asian region. The research method used is descriptive qualitative research by describing all the phenomena of the research problem empirically. This study aims to explain and analyze the dynamics of Security Dilemma and Arms Race that happen in Southeast Asia, as well as Indonesia's involvement in this phenomenon, thereby increasing the defense budget each year.

Keywords: Security Dilemma, Arms Race, Southeast Asia Region

66 Muhammad Arsy Ash Shiddiqy Security Dilemma & Arms Race in Southeast Asian Region Post-Cold War Era

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713

A. INTRODUCTION especially countries which around him, Increasing military strength because each country (which took the absolutely being a sensitive matter action) considers that the action it takes is because it can cause a security dilemma merely defensive and the actions taken by for other countries. Adagium of security other countries are threatening. dilemma at least confirms two things. Arms Race defined as a dynamic First, efforts to increase the military process of interaction between countries strength of a country tend to always be or coalitions of countries which are interpreted as a means of developing competitive, dynamic, and forced to offensive power by other countries, and acquire their weapons. "Arms Race is a second, it is difficult to distinguish situation in which two or more countries between defensive forces and opensive try to have more and stronger weapons forces. This can lead to miscalculation, than each other". Arms race can also be misjudgment and mistrust. Increasing the interpreted as a continuous competitive military power of a country is a necessity, effort (militarily) carried out by two or especially if there is a driving factor in that more countries, each of which has the direction. That is, increasing the military capability to make more and stronger power of countries in the region does not weapons than the others. stand alone but there are factors that move Colin Gray said the characteristics in that direction. In the context of the of the Arms Race, which are: first, there are Southeast Asian region, the driving forces parties who indicate their relationship is are regional tensions, border disputes, the conflicting. Second, the structuring of seizure of natural resources, the shift of US power based on the calculation of the military activity to Asia, and the increasing enemy's capabilities and objectives. Third, presence of China on the LCS. open qualitative and quantitative A Security Dilemma is a condition competition in arms purchases. Finally, an carried out by a country to improve the increase in the defense budget and the rate security of its self by increasing its defense of revenue. In addition, Gray also stated or by forming an alliance with another that like war, the arms race has political country as carried out by its neighbors, objectives. Carl Von Clausewitz states that because of a feeling of "worry" about the war is a continuation of politics in other security of its own country. According to ways, so it can also be concluded that the John H. Herz himself, the security dilemma arms race is the militarization of war or in International Relations is "a politics. structural idea in which the efforts taken Military modernization or an by a country to maintain its own security increase in military power that occurred in needs, regardless of their intentions, tend Asia, especially Southeast Asia is actually to inconvenience other countries, also a logical consequence of economic

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Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 growth. This is what happened in the five themselves with confidence to face of US main countries in Southeast Asia called the military strength as one of the largest Big Five, they are Indonesia, Singapore, military forces in the world. For this Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. In reason, increasing military power is a addition, the expansion of regional choice that must be made by Southeast security coverage that must be Asian countries as well as for building safeguarded based on their respective independence in terms of securing the national interests has also contributed to country's sovereignty. encouraging countries in the region to The appearance of China as a major increase their military strength in order to country in the region with its military be able to reach their security territory. modernization has certainly also Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, for influenced the countries in the region to example, have an interest in the security of increase its military power, especially the Malacca Strait, as well as other Asian countries that have territorial disputes countries that make these strategic waters with China on the LCS and the East China their energy and trade supply routes. Sea. In recent years China has continued to Increasing the military power of countries show LCS that is in contact with several in the region will become a problem, if ASEAN member countries and the East misperceived and suspected as a form of China Sea that is in contact with Japan. threat to security in the region. To avoid China, with its increasing military security misunderstandings and spending (second highest after the US), destabilization, transparency and continues to build more modern military strategic trust are needed, and ARF as a forces and is certainly projected to be able multilateral security forum in the Region to break deeper into disputed waters in can play a role in building such the LCS and the East China Sea. transparency and strategic trust through According to Reuters news agency, the development of constructive dialogue sourced from a several observer and consultation. institutions, there are at least three ASEAN The shift in US military activity to countries that are strengthening defense Asia also seems to have influenced equipment. Indonesia is buying some countries in the region to adapt to their submarines from South Korea and military capabilities. At least it was done to maritime radar systems from China and be able to slightly offset the US military the US. Vietnam also added Russian events that are now projected into the submarines and fighter jets. Singapore is Asian region. Countries in the region as the not left behind. The tiny country is the fifth host certainly do not want to just be largest arms importer in the world and spectators in seeing the US military continues to add sophisticated weapons. presence in Asia. They also need to present Anticipating the development of China's

68 Muhammad Arsy Ash Shiddiqy Security Dilemma & Arms Race in Southeast Asian Region Post-Cold War Era

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 military strength and also supported by leading. Inherent in this regard, some of rapid economic growth, Southeast Asian constraints such as a minimal budget (on countries are increasingly spending average still below 1% of Gross Domestic military budgets to strengthen shipping Product), as well as obstacles in the lanes, ports and maritime boundaries that embargo on arms from the United States are vital for the flow of exports and energy. which have occurred until 2005 were According to observers, territorial attacks. The challenges faced by the disputes in the South China Sea that Indonesian government. If the budget contained abundant oil and natural gas becomes the main obstacle in developing resources made Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia's defense posture, then efforts Philippines and Brunei have to anticipate towards increasing GDP become the development of China's military something that cannot be avoided. With capabilities, which also had an interest in the effort to double the amount of GDP, it those ocean. Even countries that are far is expected that the percentage of the from the dispute, such as Indonesia, defense budget will also be increased to Thailand and Singapore, also feel the need the reasonable and ideal level of Minimum to strengthen their respective maritime Essenaltial Force policy framework security by increasing the capability of adopted by Indonesia. Without a defense equipment. significant leap in that direction, at least The arms race in Southeast Asia the next ten years, Indonesia will be very was also triggered by American far behind at the regional level, intervention. To rival China, Washington is considering that building a country's increasing military relations and military posture requires no short time. cooperation with the Philippines, B. RESEARCH METHODE Indonesia and Australia. This means that The study was conducted in these countries are easier to penetrate Indonesia focused on Security Dilemma into the American military industrial and Arms Race in Southeast Asian Region. sector. America on the other hand argues This research uses a qualitative method that such cooperation is only in the with an intrinsic case study approach. framework of partnership. Characteristics of informants are The security dilemma in Southeast considered capable of providing Asia remains at the level of conventional information of Security Dilemma and arms competition, not at the level of a Arms Race in Southeast Asian Region. The fierce arms race. When comparing aspects data collected through unstructured of the quantity of weapons possessed by observation techniques, interviews countries in Southeast Asia by the Land conducted with the key informant. Study Army, Navy and Air Force respectively, documentation obtained through Security Indonesia in general has offset and even Dilemma and Arms Race in Southeast

69 Muhammad Arsy Ash Shiddiqy Security Dilemma & Arms Race in Southeast Asian Region Post-Cold War Era

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713

Asian Region. Data processing is done History" by Stuart J. Kaufman, Richard through interactive analysis approach Little and William C. Wohlforth, the great from Miles and Huberman through stages: powers will try to maintain their data collection, data reduction, data hegemony in the world. The efforts of processing and data verification. (Miles & these countries to maintain their Huberman, 1992). hegemony can be done by balancing the C. SECURITY DILEMMA & ARMs strength of their countries with each other. RACE IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN They compete with each other so as not to REGION miss, so that later there will be a balance The term of Security Dilemma was or equilibrium. But unfortunately, the created by Germany academic John H. concept balance of power resulted in an Herz, through his book, Political Realism arms race. The arms race in principle has and Political Idealism, in 1951. At the same the advantage of being a counterweight to time the British historian Herbert a powerful state that "could" act on its own Butterfield, described the same situation accord with a smaller country. But with through his book History and Human the characteristics given by Gray, the Relations, but termed it as "absolute favorable circumstances could have been a prediction and irreducible dilemma" lighter because they are based on (absolute states and irreducible conflicting interests with one another. dilemmas). According to John H. Herz The idea of the Realists who have himself, the security dilemma or in become the dominant understanding since International Relations is "a structural the cold war era also remains a idea in which the efforts taken by a determination for the concept of country to maintain its own security contemporary international security. needs, regardless of their intentions, tend Contemporary era thinkers like to inconvenience other countries, Mearsheimer, assume the multipolar especially countries which around him, situation that occurred after the end of the because each country (which took the cold war actually brought the action) considers that the action it takes is international world to a more vulnerable merely defensive and the actions taken by situation. Meanwhile, the suspicions and other countries are threatening. fears of international anarchism remain The Arms Race happen in apparent in the current behavior trends of accordance with the theory of neorealism each country. The race for strength and the which emphasizes how anarchic anarchy situation of the international international systems can turn out to be system go hand in hand with economic peaceful with the concept of balance of cooperation. Power is often the power. According to Mearsheimer, quoted determination to pursue the interests of a in the book "Balance of Power in World country, including even in a profit-

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Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 oriented partnership. Or in other words, used in analyzing international situations arms race is the other side of economic where the security and peace situation in cooperation and globalization. it cannot be fully guaranteed. From the As explained above, that the beginning until today, security is a vital concept of security according to the interest for every country. Each country Realists is the full power of a country's must be able to guarantee its own security. military. The security of a country not The strength of a country without intervened by another country is its guaranteed security will certainly make military strength, the greater and stronger the power in that country collapse easily. the military strength of a country, the less Security Dilemma is one of the likely it is to be intervened by another concepts in realism theory that arises as a country, as well as its competitiveness in result of actions from a country to improve international politics, according to the the security of his country, but on other Realists of a country's position in politics side this causes a reaction from other internationally is largely determined by countries who also want to improve their their ability to compete in the military and security, which in turn causes a decrease economic fields. And of course a country's of security in the first country. This can military strength will be very strong if happen because a country feels threatened supported by the ability of the domestic by the power possessed by another defense industry as well. One thing that is country so it tries to increase its weapons fundamental in Realism is that the state and defenses that end in a situation where views other countries as potential enemies countries are competing to produce that threaten security, an idea that comes weapons. Security Dilemma is basically a from understanding that every human reflection of the difficulties of a country's being tends to be aggressive and prey on government to determine its security other human beings, and this is natural. policy choices. If a country reduces its This means that the weakness of the state efforts to strengthen its security with the becomes a trigger for other countries to aim of creating peaceful relations with build greater strength in order to invade a other countries, the consequence is that weak state. Conversely, forces that are too the country is vulnerable to being attacked large or extreme in other countries will by other countries. trigger a country to further increase its However, if a country increases its defense and gather strength. This is called defense power, it will cause the prejudice Security Dilemma. or suspicion of other countries in the C.1. Security Dilemma international world that will trigger an In the long journey of the study of arms race. These conditions will prioritize International Relations, security dilemma ways of resolving conflicts by military or is known as one of the major concepts war methods. Security Dilemmas

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Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 generally occur in a condition where a from the threat of another country's country increases its defense force policy power especially from outside attacks. which is purely intended for self defense With the anarchy condition, the state then but often considered different by other considers that security is the first concern. countries that it aims to attack. This then The security dilemma will create encourages enemy countries to supply competition between countries in an effort weapons to increase their military to improve each other's security. In this strength caused by them trying to take the case, each country certainly does not want worst tendency that the country they are to be rivaled by other countries in facing is trying to carry out attacks. increasing their own security. For this The Security Dilemma in reason, the state will form a military International Relations will continue to budget as a result of efforts to set aside the exist as a concept in order to analyze and country's foreign exchange for the benefit explain what is happening between of weapons. Military funds are not small, countries that seem to be persistent in and the interests of defense and security their efforts to improve security. A country will continue to undermine the will feel threatened if other countries government budget for various other appear to be offensive in increasing its interests that it should fulfill. security, and take similar steps to ensure Security dilemmas is vurnable its security as well. In the concept of a happen in each region, both conflict-prone security dilemma, we can see that among regions such as East and South Asia, and countries competing to increase military relatively peaceful regions such as power for their own security, they tend to Southeast Asia, China and Japan and South be mired in mis-understandings. What Korea and North Korea are clear examples should be defensive tends to be seen as where tensions arise as a result of offensive, thereby triggering other increased security . In a similar response, countries to take similar steps to improve China has also modernized its military. their security. That's what happened in the Each country actually feels threatened by concept of Security Dilemma in increasing military power from other International Relations. countries. The threat then encouraged Referring to the anarchic them to take part in efforts to increase international system, each country needs their defense and security. Likewise, India power and also security. Each country and Pakistan. One of the most common feels obliged to have of power both main manifestations to date of the security and supporting, such as military and dilemma. Another example, when Iran weapons, as evidence that a country has produces nuclear on the grounds to power and also as a means of defense in replace oil as the main source of power, order to ensure the security of one country Israel and various countries in the region

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Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 feel threatened and take the same steps to women, men and children have the offset Iran. Likewise with countries in the potential to harm one another, brutal and Southeast Asia Region, when Singapore kill each other. The above conditions massively increased its military budget which, according to Hobbes, encourage and purchased military equipment on a humans to collaborate to form security large scale, neighboring countries such as agreements or norms that can guarantee Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia also did their safety. With the values of peace and the same because they felt threatened by security formed, they are increasingly what was conducted of defense in encouraged to form a sovereign state that Singapore. can guarantee the security and welfare of Security Dilemma is also able to its citizens. force the state to form new alliances or Hobbes further explained, that the strengthen existing alliances. If offensive state is obliged to form a strong and actions are considered less profitable, then sovereign entity, so that it can guarantee forming alliances can be a profitable the security of every citizen, both in the alternative. Under the security dilemma form of internal threats and those coming there are two reasons why alliances are from outside. In the security conditions formed. First, a country that is less that have been achieved, every citizen can satisfied with its level of security will tend achieve prosperity and happiness. to have various forms of alliance to However, this condition will naturally support and increase its level of security. create fear or feeling threatened because Second, a country is doubtful about the of the anarchic international system. This strength of the alliance that it currently is then called the security dilemma in has to be able to help it in the event of a international politics, where the threat, so it decides to form a new alliance achievement of domestic security in the with another country. creation of a state is always accompanied Regarding the security dilemma, by insecurity conditions from internal and Hobbes, clearly defines how this concept external aspects rooted in anarchic has cohesiveness with human natural systems. This leads to assumptions about conditions that cause humans to feel afraid the impossibility of a country regardless of and threatened. When Hobbes imagines the conditions. Rather it is only possible to the natural condition of humans, he make agreements between countries, further describes how men and women through international law or the rules of when they are in a natural situation before the game that benefit all countries, in the concept of a sovereign state is order to help get out of existing concerns. invented. The barbaric condition is the Waltz believes that the security situation lack of security or fear because humans of the dilemma is common in the are in a 'state of mutual combat', where international world constellation, for this

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Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 reason a country needs to maximize every tend to create war not peace because war ability it has to create security from its is considered as a shortcut to gain country. Furthermore, Waltz argued that interests and maintain power. state security is the highest thing to The end of the cold war marked by achieve above the power or interests of his the collapse of the Soviet Union which was country. considered an enemy by the United States, Based on the explanation, it can be led to the multipolar international concluded that the Security Dilemma will constellation. There is no longer an never disappear from this world. Because eastern block whose space must be basically human beings are selfish and narrowed by the western block of the very ambitious in achieving something United States allies. And there is no bigger. Humans are also competitive Warsawa Pact that becomes a NATO creatures which are the headwaters of threat. The west claims that it was the conflicts that can trigger warfare. The defeat of communism, and that it was a security dilemma is not always bad. From victory of liberalism in order to maintain the above review it can be seen how each its influence. Furthermore, the 9/11 that country that "has a dilemma" tries to caused the destruction of the WTC improve the quality of its security. It was building in the United States brought a strong enough to motivate other countries new situation in the context of to enter the competition. But competing international security, that terrorism is a countries must keep in mind that an new enemy that must be fought together. increase of this kind requires a large C.2. Arms Race amount of budget. Do not let the increase Arms Race defined as a dynamic in security adversely affect the country's process of interaction between countries economy. or coalitions of countries which are The role of Balance of Power in the competitive, dynamic, and forced to concept of Realism is that states are acquire their weapons. "Arms Race is a balanced with one another, no country is situation in which two or more countries too strong and no country is too weak. try to have more and stronger weapons Because, an imbalance of power will lead than each other". Arms race can also be to war, a strong state will be triggered to interpreted as a continuous competitive get more power. In this case, power can be effort (militarily) carried out by two or obtained one of them by forming alliances more countries, each of which has the with other countries. In the Realist capability to make more and stronger assumption, Balance of Power plays a very weapons than the others. important role in creating world peace. Because the world and the Seeing the condition of power of each international system contained in country, there are strong and weak, it will anarchist, the state often builds and

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Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 increases military power for its defense including the transformation of traditional and security purposes. However, because weapons to modern weapons. This various countries are not aware of their transformation is categorized as fairness intentions, other countries are not where we know that humans will always interpreting these actions as defensive try to protect and seek security for actions but instead will respond to these themselves and their families. These actions as offensive actions. And if so, innovations and transformations that other countries might take aggressive humans have made come to a situation action in response which would then called the Arms Race. All forms of create an unstable situation. Thus there competition must have the possibility of will be the possibility of creating an Arms conflict. In this case arms race as a form of Race between countries, especially competition will also cause conflict and countries in a region. may even reach the point of war. Even Another example of the arms race though Charles L. Glaser in his article said as a result of the emergence of a security that arms race is not always bad and is not dilemma is what happened in Germany only associated with war, it is still possible and Britain before the outbreak of world that war will still exist. war 1. Robert Jervis said that most of the The arms race is one of the sub- behavior in that period was a product of fields of study that is complicated in technology and belief that magnified the strategic assessment. It is difficult to security dilemma. In this example, distinguish between whether an increase strategists believe that offensive action in a country's weapons capability is part of will be more beneficial than defensive an "arms race" with another country or action, but in the end it should not happen. just an attempt to "defend itself" or even In terms of the arms race what happened just to maintain the "status quo" of between the US and the Soviet Union security relations in a particular region. during the Cold War, where both of them This is one of the reasons why so far there competed in the construction of nuclear has not been a sufficiently comprehensive weapons became the most famous real study of the arms race. It is interesting to example. note why this field of study is often War is one thing that feared and considered to have no special and undesirable for all humans including the commensurate place in the study of state. But war can not be denied its international relations (Bellamy, 1975: existence from the history of mankind. 129), and is not even listed in the index of Conflict and war in the history of mankind a book that clearly studies "strategy" (eg have existed since humans came to know Baylis et al, 1975) . It seems that this stems power and position. Over time, the tools from a conceptual confusion, as well as (weapons) that humans use also vary, difficulties in understanding it from the

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Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 context of logic, the process and its that will occur as a prevention system by implications for strategic interactions in each country. This condition can cause a relations between countries. threat to traditional security, because the Compared to the past, Southeast consequences that will arise will be even Asian countries and China now prefer the more destructive if you look at latest military vehicles and equipment. technological advances and the What is striking is the purchase of development of more advanced weapons. submarines. Malaysia has just bought Coupled with the threat of nuclear three submarines, Indonesia ordered weapons currently possessed by large three, Vietnam has six and Thailand wants powers. It is interesting to further to buy four from Germany. Southeast formulate the security dilemma and see its Asian countries buy weapons because the relevance to the contemporary feeling of insecurity. Vietnam and the international world, with reference to the Philippines, for example, are worried perspective of realism. about the maritime policies Beijing will Carl Von Clausewitz stated that war take. In the South China Sea there are six was a continuation of politics in another Vietnamese islands. No one knows what way, so it could also be concluded that the Chinese defense policies are that are Arms Race was a militarization of politics increasingly rivaling American defenses. like a war. Although not always identified In addition to facing the giant country of with War, Arms Race has the possibility of China, among the ASEAN nations causing war. India-Pakistan is holding an themselves there is also mutual suspicion, arms race which, although it did not go to the island nation of Singapore, which is war, what happens is negative peace, as surrounded by large countries such as are other examples. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, has Colin Gray said the characteristics armed forces to be reckoned with. of the Arms Race, which are: first, there are Indonesia and Malaysia have repeatedly parties who indicate their relationship is made a fuss over fishing vessels. The conflicting. Second, the structuring of conflict at the Cambodia-Thailand border power based on the calculation of the in 2008 killed dozens of people. enemy's capabilities and objectives. Third, Security dilemma is a feeling of open qualitative and quantitative insecurity from a country that arises due competition in arms purchases. Finally, an to activities carried out by other countries increase in the defense budget and the rate in strengthening their military of revenue. In addition, Gray also stated capabilities. Factors causing the security that like war, the arms race has political dilemma include high suspicion, enmity objectives. Carl Von Clausewitz states that and history of conflict between countries. war is a continuation of politics in other As a result of this condition are arms races ways, so it can also be concluded that the

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Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 arms race is the militarization of war speaking in the context of a country's politics. Negative peace is a condition security. The current multipolar condition where the peace situation contains an has indeed removed the rivalry between element of conflict or atmosphere where the two blocs that existed during the Cold the previous conflict is still felt and has a War era, but it certainly did not succeed in new conflict if it is not dealt with removing the rivalry between countries thoroughly. This is the basis for my that still had ideological differences or argument that arms race can later lead to poor historical backgrounds. Enmity war. among neighboring countries is still very D. CONCLUSION high. On the other hand, what Russia has Francis Fukuyama (2003) says that done to Crimea shows that occupational politics and international relations are a practices are still vulnerable. The arm race matter of historical evolution. In the has further addressed the technological direction where the historical wind moves, level and is increasingly the cause of the there we will find a contradictory and high tension of the security dilemma. The dialectical conundrum of history. Those military alliance still exists today, even the who are optimistic about the course of actions of NATO in the Middle East are also world history will certainly follow the the reason that security issues still speak historical patterns depicted in the at the traditional level. Furthermore, the philosophical tradition of Hegel's Idealism nuclear arms race among developed in the frame of "Battle of Jena", while for countries poses a very serious threat to those who are pessimistic, the historical contemporary international security. patterns depicted tend to follow the Furthermore, we will see how the security philosophical tradition of Thucydides dilemma phenomenon is so obvious, if it is political realism in the frame of " related to security issues in the East Asian Peloponnesia War ". Thus, the journey of region that are happening between Japan world history is a dialectical journey of and China lately, and also happen for history, it is difficult for them to figure out countries in Southeast Asian Region. where the historical wind will move, will it There are many examples of why lead to progress (endism) or to decline the Realist Theory is still relevant today, (declinism). one of which is the position of the US, The adage of the realists who said, Russia, France, Britain and China on the "if you want to feel peaceful prepare for UN permanent security council. The war", as if relevant to the increasing position of these countries is determined military budget of each country. All realize by their military strength. Another that interests can be fought for by means example at this time is North Korea and of force, and view the military as an Iran, both countries also received special absolute prerequisite especially when respect in international politics because

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Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713 they have strong military power through their defense industries and of course have nuclear weapons.

E. REFERENCES Globalization of World Politics”. BOOKS Oxford, [pp. 141-161]. Andrew T.H. Tan. 2014. The Arms Race in Jackson, Robert & Georg Sorensen. (1999). Asia: Trend, Causes and Introduction to International Implications. New York: Relations. Oxford University Routledge. Press, [pp.87-138]. Bakrie, Connie R. 2007.PertahananNegara Rachmawati, Iva. (2012). Memahami dan Postur TNI Ideal , Jakarta: Perkembangan Studi Hubungan Yayasan Obor Indonesia. Internasional. Yogyakarta: Muhaimin, Yahya A. 2008.Bambu Runcing Aswaja Pressindo. dan Mesiu: Masalah Kebijakan JOURNALS Pembinaan Pertahanan Hayward, Keith. 2002. “The Globalization Indonesia, Yogykarta: Tiara of Defence Industries”, Survival, Vol.42. Wacana. No.2, 1. Perwita, Anak Agung Banyu, et.al. Kina Media Ekuitas Produk 2013.Pengantar Kajian Strategis, Indonesia, “Disahkannya UU Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu. Industri PertahananTonggak Saad, Mohammed. 2000.Development Bangkitnya Industri Pertahanan Through Technology Transfer – Lokal” Edisi 2 Tahun 2012. New Organizational and Cultural Lind, William S, et.al.. 1989. The Changing Undestanding. Bristol: Intellect. Face of War: Into the Fourth Sloan, Elinor. 2008.Military Generation, Marine Corps Transformation and Modern Gazzete,Vol. 73, No. 10, 22. Warfare: A Reference Handbook, Subekti, 2012.“Modernisasi Alutsista TNI Westport: Preager Security AD untuk Mencapai Kekuatan International. Pokok Minimum”, Burchill, Scott. (2001). Realism and Neo- Yudhagama,Vol.32, No. 1, 21 realism dalam Scott Burchill et. Desch, Michael C. 1998. “Culture Clash: al., “Theories of International Assessing the Importance of Relations”. New York: Palgrave, Ideas in Security Studies” dalam [pp. 70-102]. International Security 23:1. Dunne, Tim & Brian C. Schmidt. (2001). Emmers, Ralf. 1999. “The De-escalation of Realism dalam John Baylis and the Spratly Dispute in Sino- Steve Smith (eds.), “The Southeast Asian Relations” dalam

78 Muhammad Arsy Ash Shiddiqy Security Dilemma & Arms Race in Southeast Asian Region Post-Cold War Era

Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies P-ISSN: 2656-3878 https://journal.uir.ac.id/index.php/jdis/index E-ISSN 2656-8713

IDSS Working Paper Series article/ rmiap/ articles/ online/ features/ Agustus 1999. 2014/ 01/ 30/ asean-china-maritime, Guan, Ang Cheng. 1999. “The South China “India Importir Senjata Utama Sea Dispute Revisited” dalam Dunia”, Republika Online, 17 IDSS Working Paper Series Maret 2014. http:/ / Agustus 1999. www.republika.co.id/ berita/ Jervis, Robert. 1978. “Cooperation Under internasional/global/14/03/17/ the Security Dilemma” dalam n2kuoa- india-importir-senjata- World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2. (Jan., utama-dunia, 1978). SIPRI Yearbook 2013, http:/ / www.sipri. Keling, Mohamad Faisol Keling, Md. Shukri org/ yearbook/ 2013, diakses tanggal 20 Shuib, dan Mohd Na’eim Ajis. Maret2014. 2009. “The Impact of Singapore’s “South Asia and Gulf lead rising Military Development on trend in arms imports, Russian Malaysia’s Security” dalam exports grow, says SIPRI”, http:/ Journal of politics and law Vol. 2, / www.sipri.org/ media/ No. 2 (Juni 2009). pressreleases/2014/AT_march_2 Poole, Avery D. H. 2007. “Cooperation in 014, Contention: The Evolution of ASEAN Norms” dalam YCISS Working Paper No. 44, Januari 2007. Powell, Robert. 1991. “Absolute and Relative Gains in International Relations Theory” dalam The American Political Science Review, Vol. 85, No. 4 (Dec., 1991). WEBSITES Veeramalla Anjaiah, “China’s SCS claim threatens RI sovereignty”, The Jakarta Post, “Anggaran Militer China Naik 12,2 Persen”, Kompas, “Sinyal Perlombaan Senjata di Asia”, Koran Tempo, "ASEAN mengemukakan keprihatinan atas zona maritim baru China”, http:/ / apdforum.com/ id/

79 Muhammad Arsy Ash Shiddiqy Security Dilemma & Arms Race in Southeast Asian Region Post-Cold War Era