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Correspondence Ronan Tse-Min Fu David James Gill Eric Hundman

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Correspondence Ronan Tse-Min Fu David James Gill Eric Hundman Correspondence: Looking for Asia’s Security Dilemma Correspondence Ronan Tse-min Fu David James Gill Looking for Asia’s Security Dilemma Eric Hundman Adam P. Liff and G. John Ikenberry To the Editors (Ronan Tse-min Fu writes): In “Racing toward Tragedy? China’s Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Paciªc, and the Security Dilemma,” Adam Liff and John Ikenberry claim that “a number of recent developments suggest that the region is ripe for, or may already be experiencing, severe security dilemma–driven dynamics, even arms races.”1 They portray China’s rise as the main cause of this dilemma and assert that states must adopt measures to reduce mili- tary competition in the region while they still can. I applaud Liff and Ikenberry for the policy relevance of their research, but their fun- damental claim about the prevalence of severe military competition in the Asia Paciªc region does not match the empirical reality. The real puzzle is why over the last thirty years Asian countries have shown a surprising lack of interest in boosting their military expenditures in response to China’s massive increases, whether these expenditures are measured in absolute or proportional terms, and whether they are measured over the past generation or the last few years. is there “severe military competition” in the asia paciªc? Liff and Ikenberry ground their analysis in the empirical observation that Asia might already be engaged in severe military competition, but they never deªne what they mean by “military competition” (pp. 65–82). They imply that such competition exists when parties seek to enhance their military capabilities in response to an external threat (p. 65). More speciªcally, they state that “there is evidence of a security dilemma– Ronan Tse-min Fu is a doctoral candidate in the Political Science and International Relations program at the University of Southern California. He thanks Chin-Hao Huang, Jacques Hymans, Patrick James, David Kang, and In Young Min for suggestions on earlier drafts. David James Gill is an assistant professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at the Uni- versity of Nottingham. Eric Hundman is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. He thanks Charles Glaser, Chad Levinson, and Graham Webster for thoughtful comments on earlier drafts. Adam P. Liff is an assistant professor at the School of Global and International Studies at Indiana Univer- sity and Associate-in-Research at the Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies and the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, both at Harvard University. G. John Ikenberry is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. His most recent book is Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Cri- sis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton University Press, 2011). 1. Adam P. Liff and G. John Ikenberry, “Racing toward Tragedy? China’s Rise, Military Competi- tion in the Asia Paciªc, and the Security Dilemma,” International Security, Vol. 39, No. 2 (Fall 2014), pp. 52–91, at pp. 54–55. Further references to this article appear parenthetically in the text. International Security, Vol. 40, No. 2 (Fall 2015), pp. 181–204, doi:10.1162/ISEC_c_00220 © 2015 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 181 Downloaded from http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_c_00220 by guest on 03 October 2021 International Security 40:2 182 driven spiral gradually unfolding between China and several states that is driving investments in military capabilities and that may worsen signiªcantly in the years ahead” (p. 88). If Liff and Ikenberry’s claim that the Asia Paciªc is currently experiencing severe mil- itary competition were true, then major countries in the region should have sig- niªcantly boosted their military spending over the past few decades.2 After all, China increased its military spending by 576 percent in real terms from 1992 to 2013. And as Liff and Ikenberry note, “the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] increasingly poses at least a potential threat to China’s neighbors and the United States” (p. 67). A generation of Asian leaders, however, has chosen not to respond with similar arms increases. Mea- sured in constant $2011, from 1992 to 2013 Japan’s increase was only 13 percent; South Korea’s increase was 96 percent; and India’s was 192 percent.3 Measured as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), the military expendi- tures of most Asia Paciªc countries have steadily declined since the Cold War, despite the emergence of the PLA as a professional and capable ªghting force.4 Few countries in the region have been willing to make massive investments in military power at the expense of other priorities.5 In addition, as a proportion of GDP, Asian military spending in 2013 was the lowest it had been since the end of the Cold War. On average, major Asian countries spent 3.32 and 2.83 percentage of their GDP on defense in 1988 and 1992, respectively. In 2013 the average proportion of GDP that major Asian coun- tries devoted to defense was only 1.88 percent.6 In this sense, contrary to Liff and Ikenberry’s claim, military competition in the Asia Paciªc is becoming less rather than more intense. Perhaps one could argue that twenty-ªve years is too long an analytical time frame— that China’s neighbors only recently decided its growth was a threat and have begun to respond. The most recent data do not support this claim either. Measured in inºation- adjusted constant terms, the military spending of key countries in the region declined in 2013: Japan Ϫ0.23 percent, India Ϫ0.74 percent, Taiwan Ϫ2.63 percent, and Australia Ϫ3.58 percent.7 This is not to suggest that Asian countries are indifferent to China’s as- sertiveness. Asian countries, especially those with territorial (or other) claims, certainly 2. Military expenditure remains the most widely used proxy for measuring the intensity of mili- tary competition and the existence of arms races. See Paul F. Diehl, “Arms Races and Escalation: A Closer Look,” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 20, No. 3 (September 1983), pp. 205–212; and Toby J. Rider, Michael G. Findley, and Paul F. Diehl, “Just Part of the Game? Arms Races, Rivalry, and War,” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 48, No. 1 (January 2011), pp. 85–100. 3. Author’s calculations using data from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “Worldwide Military Expenditures, 2013” (Stockholm: SIPRI, 2013), http://www.sipri.org/ research/armaments/milex/milex_database. 4. Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is often used as a proxy for measuring a state’s de- fense effort. See Barry Buzan and Eric Herring, The Arms Dynamic in World Politics (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1998). 5. Military expenditure as a percentage of government spending provides another way to assess the defense effort of a country. As noted above, however, the shared percentage of government spending that defense represents has also signiªcantly declined in most Asian countries over the past quarter century. 6. Calculated from SIPRI, “Worldwide Military Expenditures, 2013.” 7. Calculated from ibid. Downloaded from http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_c_00220 by guest on 03 October 2021 Correspondence: Looking for Asia’s Security Dilemma 183 Figure 1. Military Expenditures, 2003–13 (constant $2011) SOURCE: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “Worldwide Military Expenditures, 2013,” http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database. care about China’s policy in the South and East China Seas, but they have not re- sponded by engaging in severe military competition, at least when measured in the standard manner. likely rivals Perhaps one could argue that a broad regional perspective masks military competition between speciªc countries. For example, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam all have enduring disputes with China. Yet even these “most likely” rivals have been taking part in muted military competition or arms race.8 From 2003 to 2013, none has signiªcantly increased its military budget, measured in constant 2011 dollars, despite a massive increase in Chinese military spending over the same period (see ªgure 1). Japan’s 2015 military budget increased 0.8 percent in absolute terms, hardly qual- ifying as remilitarization, much less competition with China.9 Even though Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to reestablish Japan as a ªrst-tier nation, the ªve-year plan he put forth in 2013 might total increases of only $9 billion if it is fully implemented— and even those increases are in doubt given Japan’s precarious economic situation. Fur- 8. Steve Chan demonstrates that most Asian political leaders do not regard military balancing against foreign enemies as a viable way to enhance their political legitimacy. See Chan, Enduring Rivalries in the Asia-Paciªc (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013). 9. Paul Kallender-Umezu, “Japan Defense Budget Rises 0.8%,” Defense News, January 14, 2015, http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/budget/2015/01/14/japan-budget- increase-abe-nakatani-china-nansei/21770531/. Downloaded from http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_c_00220 by guest on 03 October 2021 International Security 40:2 184 thermore, the Japanese people remain skeptical of their government’s efforts to engage in a more activist foreign policy and the military’s desire for greater inºuence.10 A poll taken by the Asahi Shimbun in April 2014 shows that 65 percent of respondents opposed Abe’s efforts to promote closer security ties with the United States, believing these ef- forts will not beneªt regional stability.11 Meanwhile, in 2014 Vietnam and the Philippines spent a combined total of less than $4 billion on their militaries—roughly 4 percent of China’s total budget.
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