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Asia Pacific Investment Quarterly Q2/2018

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Asia Pacific Investment Quarterly Q2/2018 Savills World Research Asia Pacifi c Asia Pacifi c Investment Quarterly Q2 2018 Australia China (Northern) - Beijing/Tianjin China (Western) - Chengdu China (Southern) - Guangzhou/Shenzhen China (Eastern) - Shanghai Hong Kong | Japan | Macau Malaysia | New Zealand | Singapore South Korea | Taiwan Thailand | Vietnam Major Transactions Image: Hong Kong HIGHLIGHTS For Japan, monetary policy money remains the dominant a result. Korea’s investment remains supportive and the force and the focus this year market was more active World Bank forecasts steady has been on the offi ce market than ever during the second growth through 2020. Real while a recovering retail quarter. Total volumes for estate fundamentals are sector is gaining appeal. In the fi rst half of this year strong, and international Singapore, the July cooling have already reached 70% investors continue to target measures had a particularly of those posted in FY2017 fi rst and second tier cities negative impact on residential when the investment market in a display of confi dence. collective sales. This will saw its most active year. In Financial restrictions remain almost surely result in a Vietnam foreign capital is tight on the property market precipitous drop in this abundant but opportunities in China, with investment segment of the investment are limited across all sectors. funds less active than owner- sales market and we have occupiers. This trend could revised our investment sales Simon Smith, Savills Research continue for the rest of the forecast down, from S$36 year. In Hong Kong mainland billion to S$25-27 billion as savills.com.hk/research 01 Asia Pacifi c | Investment Quarterly An introduction to Savills Savills Asia Pacific Network Asia Australia Hong Kong Taiwan Adelaide Central (2) Taichung Brisbane Taikoo Shing (2) Taipei (2) Canberra Tsim Sha Tsui 2 Thailand Gold Coast 5 Gordon India Bangkok Lindfield Bangalore Mumbai 47 Melbourne Vietnam Offices Notting Hill Gurgaon Da nang Parramatta Hanoi 2 Perth Indonesia Ho Chi Minh City Roseville Jakarta St Ives Sunshine Coast Japan Sydney Tokyo Turramurra Macau 3 Cambodia Macau Phnom Penh * Malaysia Johor Bahru China Kuala Lumpur Beijing Penang Chengdu & New Chongqing Z New Zealand lia e Dalian Auckland a a Guangzhou r Christchurch t la s Hangzhou n u Nanjing Philippines d Shanghai A Makati City * Shenyang Bonifacio Global City * Shenzhen 18 Tianjin Singapore Offices Wuhan Singapore (3) Xiamen Xi’an South Korea 6 Zhuhai Seoul *Associate Office Source: Savills Research & Consultancy Savills is a leading global real and Viet Nam. Savills provides a We are regarded as an innovative- estate service provider listed on comprehensive range of advisory thinking organisation supported by the London Stock Exchange. The and professional property services excellent negotiating skills. Savills company, established in 1855, has a to developers, owners, tenants and chooses to focus on a defi ned set of rich heritage with unrivalled growth. investors. These include consultancy clients, offering a premium service The company now has over 600 services, facilities management, to organisations and individuals offi ces and associates throughout space planning, corporate real estate with whom we share a common the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacifi c, services, property management, goal. Savills is synonymous with a Africa and the Middle East. leasing, valuation and sales in all key high-quality service offering and a segments of commercial, residential, premium brand, taking a long-term In Asia Pacifi c, Savills has 65 industrial, retail, investment and hotel view of real estate and investing in regional offi ces comprising over property. strategic relationships. 25,000 staff. Asia Pacifi c markets include Australia, China, Hong Kong, A unique combination of sector India, Indonesia, Japan, Macau, knowledge and entrepreneurial fl air Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, gives clients access to real estate South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand expertise of the highest calibre. 02 Q2 2018 Contents Australia 04 China (Northern) - Beijing 05 China (Northern) - Tianjin 06 China (Western) - Chengdu 07 China (Southern) - Guangzhou 08 China (Southern) - Shenzhen 09 China (Eastern) - Shanghai 10 Hong Kong 11 Japan 12 Macau 13 Malaysia 14 New Zealand 15 Singapore 16 South Korea 17 Taiwan 18 Thailand 19 Viet Nam 20 Major transactions Q2 2018 21 savills.com.hk/research 03 Asia Pacifi c | Investment Quarterly Australia Paul Craig Chris Freeman CEO National Head +61 2 8215 8888 Capital Strategy [email protected] +61 2 8215 6093 [email protected] Australian direct property & Major Regional centres remains focus to income growth. Over the performance extended its gains over strong, as investors are increasingly last 3 years, capital returns have the equities markets according to attracted to the high income returns accounted for the majority of total the latest MSCI data. In the past on Retail assets. Although, with the returns, with record capital value fi ve years, the average investment in launch of Amazon Prime during the appreciation, particularly in Sydney commercial property has delivered quarter in Australia, all eyes will be on and Melbourne’s offi ce markets, an average unlevered total return retail trade performance over coming driving market yields to record low of an impressive 72.4% (income months. levels. Moving forward, capitalisation and capital returns) while Australian of income growth expected in these equities has delivered 42.9% over the We are now at a point in the markets will most likely drive overall same period. This outperformance commercial property sector, returns over the short to medium was stark over the past 12 months, where we are seeing a shift in term. with yield compression in commercial property driving an average return of 11.5% over the year to March-18 GRAPH 1 (latest available) while equities posted a total return of just 1.0% Australian property vs equities, Mar 2013 – Mar 2018 over the same period as the heavy weighting to resource and fi nancial Aus property Aus equities stocks drove continued volatility. 180 While the extent to which yield 170 compression can continue to driver performance across major markets 160 is a cause of debate, Australia is now in its 26th consecutive year 150 of economic growth with the drag 140 of low employment growth now appearing to be behind us. A surge 130 in full-time employment over the last 9 months has driven employment 120 growth across all states, fuelled by record company revenue growth 110 across key industries. With this will 100 likely to translate to rising wages growth (which has been largely 90 stagnant since 2008), a turnaround Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 in the previously ailing retail sector appears plausible in late 2018. Source: Savills Research & Consultancy TABLE 1 It was another record 12 month period for sales in the offi ce and Major investment transactions, Q2/2018 retail sectors. In FY-18, the retail Property Location Price Buyer Usage sector recorded total sales of $10.33 billion, whilst $18.00 billion of offi ce Westpac Place Sydney, NSW AU$860 mil/US$635.4 mil Mirvac Offi ce sales was only slightly below the Pacifi c Epping (50%) Epping, VIC AU$402 mil/US$301.5 mil Queensland Investment Retail $18.12 billion record set in FY-16. Corporation (QIC) Transaction volumes in the industrial Brown Plains, Grand Plaza (50%) QLD AU$215 mil/US$161.3 mil Invesco Real Estate Retail sector however are still well below Hopper Queensland Investment the record set 3 years ago as quality Pacifi c Werribbe (50%) Crossing, VIC AU$215 mil/US$161.3 mil Corporation (QIC) Retail offerings of scale remain in short 117 Clarence Street Sydney, NSW AU$153 mil/US$114.8 mil Investa Property Group Offi ce supply. Wheelers Hill, Newmark Brandon Core Brandon Park S.C. VIC AUS135 mil/US$101.3 mil Plus Fund Retail Transactional evidence from 2017 and the fi rst half of 2018 suggests Gateway Plaza S.C. Leopold, VIC AUS117 mil/US$87.75 mil Charter Hall Retail demand for Regional and Super Source: Savills Research & Consultancy 04 Q2 2018 China (Northern) - Beijing Spring Cao Jack Xiong Senior Director Head of PDC, Director Investment, Savills Northern China Research +8610 5925 2048 +86 10 5925 2042 [email protected] [email protected] Activity in the en-bloc investment QoQ to 106,487 sq m GFA. Total hotel markets will remain popular market was largely stable in Q2/2018. consideration rose by 20.5% QoQ to investment targets, a lack of tradable A total of four deals registering a RMB3.56 billion. assets will see astute investors total consideration of RMB4.9 billion expand their investment horizons. were concluded during the period. The fi rst-hand, strata-title retail The market for serviced apartments, Traditional asset classes proved market received 25,173 sq m of long-term leasing apartments popular during the quarter with the new supply in Q2/2018, up 29.0% and detached offi ce towers in offi ce, retail and hotel markets all QoQ. Total transaction area reached industrial parks will continue to gain witnessing deals. 131,206 sq m, up 183.5% QoQ. Total momentum. In addition to this, the consideration registered RMB3.76 impact from restrictive regulations Deal activity was dominated by billion, up 101.3% QoQ. and high land costs will see some domestic players during the quarter developers target mature assets, with both buyers and sellers Institutional investors are expected to which offer potential for value-add, coming from the mainland. Major continue to diversify their acquisition and greater asset appreciation and transactions during the quarter targets. While traditional asset return on investment. included: classes such as the offi ce, retail and New Everbright Centre Tower A was acquired by Postal Savings GRAPH 2 Bank of China for an undisclosed consideration.
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