Gas Ten Year Statement 2016
UK gas transmission
NOVEMBER 2016 Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016
How to use this interactive document To help you find the information you need quickly and easily we have published the GTYS as an interactive document.
Home A to Z This will take you to the contents page. You will find a link to the glossary You can click on the titles to navigate on each page. to a section. Hyperlinks Arrows Hyperlinks are highlighted in bold Click on the arrows to move throughout the report. You can click backwards or forwards a page. on them to access further information.
Previous view Click on the icon to go to the previous page viewed. Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 01
We are in the midst of an energy revolution. The economic landscape, developments in technology and consumer behaviour are changing at an unprecedented rate, creating more opportunities than ever for our industry.
Our 2016 Gas Ten Year we enhance our approach to how Statement, along with our other we foresee the network evolving System Operator publications, to ensure we have the tools and aims to encourage and inform capability in place ahead of need. debate, leading to changes that ensure a secure, sustainable Complementing 2016’s GTYS and and affordable energy future. FES (Future Energy Scenarios) publications, National Grid will also GTYS 2016 continues to be an be producing for the first time the important part of how we engage Gas Future Operability Planning with you to understand the drivers (GFOP) document. With the ambition of change influencing your business, to look out to 2050, GFOP will begin so that we can continue to develop the first steps at articulating how the National Transmission System changing customer requirements and market framework in line with will affect the capability of the those needs. gas transmission system for both operations and its associated Although the key themes have processes. Alongside GTYS we remained unchanged over the are keen to get your views on the past 12 months, their importance inaugural GFOP publication, and remain crucial to us, in particular engagement activities are being how we respond to changing arranged to facilitate this. customer requirements, the impact of EU legislation on the market and I hope that you find both these infrastructure, and of course the documents, along with our other effect of Great Britain’s evolving System Operator publications, and dynamic gas market on useful as a catalyst for wider debate. system operations and planning For more information about all our into the future. publications, please see page 14.
Our latest Future Energy Scenarios Please share your views with us; (FES) further emphasises the you can find details of how to importance of gas in GB’s energy contact us on our website http:// mix, continuing to play a key role www.nationalgrid.com/gtys by providing flexible generation to enable the growth of renewable sources of generation; and providing Andy Malins top-up heating in the longer term. Head of Network Capability It is fundamentally important that and Operations, Gas Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 02
Contents
Executive summary...... 03 Asset development...... 116 Overview...... 03 5.1 Introduction...... 117 Key messages...... 05 5.2 Industrial emissions directive...... 118 Future GTYS editions and feedback...... 06 5.3 Integrated pollution prevention Introduction...... 08 and control (IPPC) directive...... 119 1.1 What do we do?...... 08 5.4 Large combustion plant directive...... 122 1.2 Future Energy Scenarios...... 09 5.5 Medium combustion plant directive.....123 1.3 Key themes...... 10 5.6 Asset health review...... 123 1.4 Network development process...... 11 5.7 Meeting future flow patterns...... 124 1.5 GTYS chapter structure...... 12 1.6 How does the Gas Ten Year Statement publication fit in?...... 14 1.7 How to use this document...... 16
Way forward...... 126 6.1 Continuous development of GTYS...... 127 6.2 2015/16 stakeholder feedback and engagement...... 128 Network development inputs...... 18 2.1 Introduction...... 19 2.2 Customer requirements...... 21 2.3 Future energy scenarios...... 38 2.4 Legislative change...... 52 Appendix 1 – National Transmission System (NTS) maps ...... 130 Appendix 2 – Customer connections and capacity, and the PARCA framework process...... 142 Appendix 3 – Meet the teams...... 152 Appendix 4 – Actual flows 2015/16...... 154 System capability...... 66 Appendix 5 – Gas demand and supply volume 3.1 Introduction...... 67 scenarios...... 159 3.2 NDP – defining the need case...... 68 Appendix 6 – EU activity...... 189 3.3 Customer capacity – exit...... 69 Appendix 7 – Network development process...... 192 3.4 Customer capacity – entry...... 86 Appendix 8 – Conversion matrix...... 194 3.5 Impact of legislative change...... 92 Appendix 9 – Glossary...... 195
System operation...... 96 4.1 Introduction...... 97 4.2 What are system operator capabilities?...... 98 4.3 Deciding between system operator capabilities and assets...... 99 4.4 Investing in our system operator capabilities...... 101 4.5 Needs case review...... 110 Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 03
Executive summary
Overview
The 2016 Gas Ten Year Statement (GTYS) In partnership with the 2016 GTYS, National provides an update on the current and future Grid will also be publishing the inaugural Gas challenges which impact the way we plan and Future Operability Planning (GFOP) document. operate the National Transmission System This will describe how changing customer (NTS). It also outlines what we are doing to requirements may affect the future capability address these challenges in our roles as the of NTS out to 2050, and the challenges these System Operator (SO) and Transmission may pose to NTS operation and processes. Owner (TO). The GFOP publication will enhance the way we respond to you and other market signals, Three themes continue to be a priority for us: leading to modifications in our decision customer requirements, legislative change and making and operational processes to ensure asset health. This year’s publication will again we continue to maintain a resilient, safe focus on these against the backdrop of the and secure NTS. current Future Energy Scenarios. Gas Future Operability Planning 2016 Future Energy Scenarios Gas Ten Year Statement 2015
Gas Gas Ten Year Future Energy Future Operability Statement 2015 Scenarios Planning 2016
UK gas transmission UK gas and electricity transmission UK gas transmission
National Grid plc National Grid plc National Grid plc National Grid House, National Grid House, National Grid House, Warwick Technology Park, Warwick Technology Park, Warwick Technology Park, Gallows Hill, Warwick. Gallows Hill, Warwick. Gallows Hill, Warwick. CV34 6DA United Kingdom CV34 6DA United Kingdom CV34 6DA United Kingdom Registered in England and Wales Registered in England and Wales Registered in England and Wales No. 4031152 No. 4031152 No. 4031152 www.nationalgrid.com NOVEMBER 2015 www.nationalgrid.com JULY 2015 www.nationalgrid.com NOVEMBER 2016 Gas Ten Year Future Energy Gas Future Statement Scenarios Operability Planning November 2016 July 2016 November 2016 Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 04
Executive summary
Continuing with the revised format used for requirements, future energy scenarios, last year’s document, GTYS 2016 is presented legislative change, and asset health bridging across the following sections (see Figure 0.1) the central three chapters of System Capability, with the aforementioned themes of customer System Operation and Asset Development.
Figure 0.1 2016 GTYS structure
1. Introduction
2. NDP Triggers Customer Future Energy Legislative Asset Requirements Scenarios Change Health
3. System Capability Connections (new/existing) Entry and Exit Capacity System Flexibility Historic Evolution of Supply & Demand Current Supply & Demand Future Energy Scenarios IED (IPPC, LCP, MCP & BREF) Maintenance & Replacment Do nothing/impact on current network and SO capabilities
Options to respond
4. System Operation SO Tool/ Capability Development
5. Asset Development Network/Asset option development
6. Way Forward Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 05
Key messages
Changing energy landscape – over the EU legislation in relation to asset past year the volume of renewable electricity operation on the NTS – in January 2013 sources has increased substantially (with solar the Industrial Emissions Directives (IED) came and onshore wind contributing approximately into force. This restricts the use of 16 of our 64 0.2 GW of generation capacity in 2000, which compressor units on the NTS. Combined with increased to 17.8 GW in 2015) representing the Medium Combustion Plant (MCP) directive 30% of installed capacity. In line with the which will come into force by January 2018, November 2015 energy policy announcement this is anticipated to affect the availability of from the government, higher levels of gas-fired a further 26 units in our compressor fleet. generation are anticipated with enhanced importance on gas being used for both flexible Following the result of the 2016 referendum electricity generation, as well as supporting National Grid notes that alongside other renewable sources of electricity. Changes to requirements, EU rules and regulations will gas demand, with customers using gas more continue to apply until the terms of the future flexibly, will create new operability challenges. UK relationship with the EU (including the These challenges will be discussed in more Internal Energy Market) are defined. detail in our new Gas Future Operability Planning document which is also being published at the end of November 2016.
Impact of changing customer requirements – in February 2016 we initiated an innovation project (Project CLoCC; Customer Low Cost Connections) funded through the Ofgem Network Innovation Competition (NIC). Project CLoCC is aimed at achieving the key objectives of reducing connection costs to the NTS to less than £1 million, and the time it takes to do this to less than one year. Project CLoCC aims to provide greater choice for our customers to connect to the gas transmission network. Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 06
Executive summary
Future GTYS editions and feedback
We are always keen to hear your comments If you have any feedback to help us shape to help shape the structure and content of GTYS 2017, please contact us via the future Gas Ten Year Statements. We also seek mailbox (.Box.SystemOpertor.GTYS@ your views on the following areas of our gas nationalgrid.com) and of course any transmission business: other opportunities where we get to meet Asset Health. over the coming year. Industrial Emissions Directive. Network Development Policy. Chapter one 07 08
Introduction
one Chapter Chapter 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter one Introduction to 94 up of pressures 7,600of anetwork We have market. gas competitive transportation of gas and facilitation of the secure the in part avital plays NTS The network Our flowing. gas the to keep schedules maintenance plans and asset replacement effective implement and We develop operate. to safe and purpose for fit are NTS the on assets our of all sure make must we standards are met. As Transmission Owner quality gas ensuring and pressures system balancing supply and demand, maintaining day-to-day operation of the network including the manage We reliably. and efficiently safely, points offtake to exit points supply from gas is to responsibility our transport primary Operator System As Britain. Great in (NTS) Owner of the gas National Transmission System Transmission and Operator System the We are Our role doWhat we do? 1.1 it. we’re how doing and we’re what doing on feedback your to get you with to engage keen We (TO). are Owner Transmission and (SO) Operator System as them to address doing we’re what discuss We also NTS. the operate challenges which impact the way we plan and future and current on you We update Transmission (NTS) System over the ten next years. of how we intend the National to operate and plan We write the Welcome to our 2016 Ten Gas Year (GTYS) Statement 1 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 http://www.talkingnetworkstx.com/general-performance.aspx
km pipelines, presently operated at at operated presently pipelines, km GTYS bar, which transports gas transports bar, which to provide you with a better understanding to provide you understanding with a better
please see Our Performance see please our stakeholders (for more information, set outputs which have been agreed with have we (2013–21); framework this under RIIO-T1 the period within currently We are develop and deliver more sustainable energy. uses incentives to drive innovation to 2013/14. in by Ofgem RIIO implemented + Outputs) regulatory framework was Innovation =Incentives+ (Revenue RIIO The framework regulatory Our countries). to other (pipelines industrial consumers and interconnectors large stations, power sites, storage including customers connected to directly or customers, transportation to domestic and industrial onward for (DNs) Networks Distribution to eight transferred is gas points, 1). offtake exit At the (Appendix system the from points offtake exit to facilities storage and terminals coastal from agreed revenue allowance from Ofgem. from allowance revenue agreed an for return in outputs these We deliver Operator activities. Operator System our on information further provide which keypublications other and you, impact changes to our internal processes that may keyprojects, We summarise NTS. the on identify connection and capacity opportunities to you to help basis annual an on information planning cycle. We use GTYS GTYS is published at the end of the annual annual the of end the at published is publication to provide provide to .
1
). ).
08 Chapter one 09
by
More focus More
is a world where economic expands on the FES is a world where policy publication gives details of of details gives publication on long-term environmental goals, goals, environmental long-term on interventions and innovation are both reducing in effective and ambitious focus The emissions. gas greenhouse high levels of prosperity and advanced the that ensure harmonisation European Progression Slow ProgressionSlow transition to ability society’s limit conditions consumers residential for Choices, world. develop. do policies and technologies new of This results in some progress towards decarbonisation but at a slower pace. Gone Green Gone Green Gone 2050 carbon reduction target is achieved. as quickly as desired a low-emissions to and businesses, are restricted, yet a range annual and peak gas supply for each of our four scenarios. The GTYS highlighting and information locational adding and planning future the for implications NTS. the of operation Our 2016 FES Our 2016
Green ambition Green
. We have. We created 2 is a market-driven is a world where business where world a is Less focus focus Less
energy is used. is energy as usual activities prevail. Society is focused security on concentrating short-term, the on of supply and affordability over and above green ambition. Traditional sources of gas dominate, to electricityand continue how altering innovation little with world. High levels of prosperity allow for limited with innovation, and investment high technologies New intervention. government are prevalent and focus on the desires of consumers over and above emissions reductions. Progression No Progression No Consumer Power Consumer Consumer Power Consumer
available money publication in July 2016 Prosperity
Less money money Less More More http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Figure 1.1 and environmentalHere are the political, economic, social, technological factors accounted for in our four 2016 Future Energy Scenariosfactors accounted for in our four 2016 Future We publishedWe our latest Energy Scenarios Future (FES) 1.2 EnergyFuture Scenarios 2 a credible range of scenarios, developed the on focus which feedback, industry following affordability and (sustainability, trilemma energy security of supply). The figure below (Figure1.1) scenarios. 2016 four the summarises Chapter one Introduction Future Operability Gas anew published also have we year This manage within-day customer requirements. developing our internal systems to better we’re how outlined have 4we 4. Chapter In 2, 3and Chapters in detail more in discussed is NTS the of requirements customers’ ofThe importance understanding our system. the operate and plan to challenging more ever it makes This time. customer behaviours, occurring at the same it’s the combined impact of multiple changing customer changing how they use the system, one of acase it’s not way. Often dynamic amore in to respond able to be has NTS The Customer behaviour is continually changing. Customer requirements Process (NDP). Development Network our of stage each at and impact on our day-to-day network operation their to show chapter each through run and (FES) Scenarios Energy Future the of backdrop a against considered all are themes These years. ten next the over network our develop and operate we how on have will they impact what outlines and GTYS year’s This years: ten next the over us for apriority to be continue keythemes Three Key themes 1.3 3 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 publication going forward. collaborative amore to develop block building a as this use cover. We and will like look could document this what demonstrate to draft first a is This area. important to this focus greater www.nationalgrid.com/gfop Asset health. change. Legislative Customer requirements.
focuses on these key themes keythemes these on focuses ( GFOP 3 ) document to give to give ) document
is covered in Chapters 2 and 5. 2and Chapters in covered is network our on health asset of impact The network. our on needs changing the with this to balance have we but maintenance more needs network ageing An issue. health asset agrowing have we ageing, are that many including system, the on assets many so With through maintenance and replacement. risk network of level current the maintaining also while NTS the to operating applies that legislation safety all with comply we that It’s vital installations (AGIs). above-ground 530 and valves 20 control units, 24 compressor sites with 75 compressor 7,600 pipeline, of km comprises NTS The Asset health including IED, in Chapters 2, 3, 4 and 5. change, legislative of impact the We discuss be affected. Directive (IED) and how our network could the key elements of the Industrial Emissions GTYS of versions previous In network. our operate and plan we how on impact abig has change Legislative Legislative change we have outlined
10 Chapter one 11 Review and Close Project Execute Project Least regrets option or options? Chapter 5 Develop and Sanction Value fordelivered customers and end consumers under different options? The NDP defines the method for decision sanction, development, optioneering, making, delivery and closure for all our projects (Figure 1.2). The goal is deliver to projects that have the lowest whole-life cost, are fit for purpose and requirements. RIIO and stakeholder meet Select Option Invest in assets, develop commercial options or wider network options?
Stakeholder Engagement Establish Portfolio Risks of ‘Do Nothing’ option. Consider ‘rules’, ‘tools’ and ‘assets’. Chapters 4 & 5 we have continued with a Required system capability over the short/ medium/ long term Need Case Chapter 3
, we focus on the first three stages of
GTYS Trigger A change in the network, legislation, market or customer requirements. Chapter 2 The network development process Figure 1.2 1.4 process Network development 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas In the NDP (Trigger, Need Case and Establish decision- internal our outline these as Portfolio) making process. The final three stages relateto solutions non-physical and build asset physical such as commercial options. These are briefly 5. Chapter in discussed In this year’s GTYS decision investment our makes that structure document the with transparent, more process Network our of stages initial the outlining (NDP). Process Development Chapter one Introduction cost-effective solution(s). robust, most the to provide together link stages the how and NDP the of stage each at happens what of overview aclearer you gives The chapter structure provided in Figure 1.3 2016 GTYSstructure Figure 1.3 GTYS 1.5 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 6. Way Forward option development Network/Asset 5. AssetDevelopment Capability Development SO Tool/ 4. SystemOperation Options torespond network andSOcapabilities Do nothing/impactoncurrent 3. SystemCapability 2. NDPTriggers 1. Introduction
chapter structure
Requirements Connections (new/existing) Connections
Customer Entry and Exit Capacity Exit and Entry
System Flexibility System
Future Energy Future Energy
Historic Evolution of Supply & Demand & Supply of Evolution Historic year’s this throughout discussed are key themes three the of impact the FES our with Along
Scenarios
Current Supply & Demand & Supply Current
GTYS Future Energy Scenarios Energy Future .
Legislative Legislative
Change IED (IPPC, LCP, MCP & BREF) & MCP LCP, (IPPC, IED
Health Asset Asset Maintenance & Replacment & Maintenance
12 Chapter one 13
and NDP. NDP. and publication. These developments make sure that we can keep planning operate to a fit-for-purpose network safely and efficiently,to deliver value stakeholders. and customers our for development Asset 5. Chapter Here we consider the ‘Establish Portfolio’ stage solutions. asset our with It sets out NTS reinforcement projects that have construction under projects sanctioned, been and potential investmentin 2016/17 options for later years as a result of the It IED. also covers assessed all are These review. health asset our against the scenarios and sensitivities in our FES Chapter 6. Way forward and needs your meeting to committed We’re want you help to shape our GTYS This chapter discusses our plans over the coming year and tells you how you can get involved.
530 Number of above- installations ground in theNTS network , legislation and asset asset and legislation , Chapter 2. Network development inputs development 2. Network Chapter There are many inputs that ‘trigger’ our NDP. For every trigger we assess the needs of our network ensure to it remains fit for purpose. in a periodWe’re of great change, which may result in significant modifications to the way we currently plan and operate the NTS. We anticipate that we will have a wider range of triggers our to NDP in future. This chapter covers four key triggers: customer FES the requirements, health. discuss We these triggers and how they impact the current and future use of the NTS. capability System 3. Chapter This section outlines the current system capability of the NTS. System capability defines the maximum and minimum ability of transport to infrastructure network current our gas safely and effectively. explore We the Need Case This stage is of our where NDP. we capability requirements. system assess our provideWe information about entry and exit capacity, pressures, and the impact of the IED. operation System 4. Chapter This chapter explores part of the ‘Establish Portfolio’ develop We stage of the a NDP. solutions asset and non-asset portfolio of meetto the Need Case requirements. In this chapter we detail the specific ongoing and planned developments our to System tools). and (rules capabilities Operator 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter one Introduction our customers. planning, which will benefit are we investment the about network analysis and industry energy the to inform scenarios these We use 2050. to out projections demand and provide supply and and affordability) sustainability (security of supply, on the energy trilemma are scenarios These based industry. energy the across from stakeholders from input involves and year every publication fit in? (FES). Scenarios Energy Future the is publications flagship The point starting for our for change. debate, and making decision intended to yearthat we are every beacatalyst produce enabler, an as facilitator. and informer SO publications The (SO), placed Operator System future. As we perfectly are to energy make that together sure we our shared secure working with you and our industry debate across energy to role play in leading the important an has Grid National How Ten the does Gas Year Statement 1.6 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 JULY 2015 Scenarios Future Energy UK gasandelectricitytransmission
The FES The is published is published
Reports Summer operability inoperability our and transmission capability of the gas and electricity view long-term our We build Consultations Summer by complemented are and business planning activities and informsupport your publications are designed to winter. These or summer coming the for demand and supply electricity and gas of aview to provide season each of ahead them We publish transmission, we produce the around gas and electricity For short-term challenges Report Outlook Winter 2 015/16 every six months. months. six every and and Winter Winter Outlook and reports. reports. and 7 April2016 Report Outlook Summer 2 016
Future Energy Future Energy
(GTYS) (GTYS) The thatindustry can inform debate. information across the energy your views and share these publications, we seek publications. To help shape FrameworkOperability (SOF) and (GFOP) Planning (NOA), Gas Future Operability Network Options Assessment Statements and (ETYS Scenarios (FES), Ten Year also It on. working currently are we projects on update GTYS The (NTS). National Transmission System capacity is available on the gas exit and entry where and what NOVEMBER 2015 Statement 2015 Gas Ten Year UK gastransmission Gas Ten Year Statement Ten Year Statement Gas
describes in detail describes provides an System System GTYS), GTYS),
14 Chapter one 15
and
uses the publications. publications. Future EnergyFuture EnergyFuture
publications. System Operability System System Operability System UK electricity transmission System Operability Framework 2015 NOVEMBER 2015 Framework (SOF) Future Energy Scenarios Scenarios Energy Future requirements future examine to for the operability of GB describes It networks. electricity operational in developments information provides and needs that can help towards technology, new developing that solutions and codes operability. system improve If you are interested in finding consider please more, out our reading Network Options Assessment Assessment Options Network (NOA) requirements across the across requirements transmission electricity GB network. If you are interested in finding out more about and capability electricity consider please operability, our reading The Scenarios (FES), Electricity Electricity (FES), Scenarios (ETYS) Statement Year Ten and Framework (SOF) Ten Electricity (FES), Scenarios (ETYS) Statement Year
System builds applies . You can. You and Future EnergyFuture
Network Options Options Network publications. publications. and presents the Network Options Options Network Electricity Ten Year Year Electricity Ten UK electricity transmission UK gas electricity transmission Network Options Assessment 2015 Electricity Ten Year Year Electricity Ten Statement 2015 FEBRUARY 2016 FEBRUARY NOVEMBER 2015 Assessment (NOA) Statement (ETYS)Statement to Scenarios Energy Future highlights and models network shortfalls capacity on the Electricity National GB the (NETS) System Transmission over the next ten years. If you are interested in finding out investment network the about recommendations that we these meet will believe the across requirements transmission electricity GB consider please network, reading Assessment (NOA) find out more about the electricity of view longer-term capability operability and by our reading The The Operability Framework (SOF) upon the future capacity future the upon described inrequirements ETYS network investment recommendations that we believe will meet these Scenarios (FES) (FES) Scenarios
Future publication publication publications. publications. publications. publications. Gas Future Operability Gas Future Operability Operability Future Gas UK gas transmission Future Operability Future Planning 2016 NOVEMBER 2016 Energy Scenarios (FES) and (FES) Scenarios Energy Statement Year Ten Gas (GTYS) Our Planning (GFOP) Future Energy Scenarios (FES), (FES), Scenarios Energy Future and (GFOP) Planning ten years. If you are interested in finding out more about provides our viewof the andcapability requirements development network required be will decisions that for the NTS over the next the longer-term view of gas of view longer-term the capability operability, and our reading consider please 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas may highlight a need to respond we way the change our processes. The GFOP youto or other market signals. This, in turn, may lead us operational modify our to decisionand processes helps publication This making. maketo sure we continue to maintain a resilient, safe and secure NTS now and into the future. If you are interested in please more, out finding our reading consider describes how changing describes how requirements affect the future capability of the NTS out to 2050. It also considers how may requirements these and operation NTS affect Chapter one Introduction and case studies. case and breakout boxes relevant as well as response, in doing are we what and system the of requirements the changing of descriptions Including rich Narrative How tousethisdocument Figure 1.4 Year Statement 2016 our in Electricity Ten approach same the 1.4). Figure (see We’ll use section each of start the at messages main the we’ve highlighted And easily. and quickly content relevant find you to chapter, help each coded We’ve colour How to this use document 1.7 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
. trends to be quickly identified. quickly be to trends enabling analysis, and data the support to charts Provides Figure with on a particular page. aparticular on with dealt topic main the introduce headings defined Clearly Main heading [email protected] .Box. at us email please touch, in to get like 2016 the of GTYS structure and content on views We’d your to hear love locate a particular piece of information. of piece aparticular locate can you that so headings identifiable easily by sections into divided is text main The Subheadings further commentary. and citations for Used Footnotes . If you’d. If
information. key provide analysis and the support to data Provides Table 16 . Chapter one Network development inputs Network two Chapter Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
18 17 Chapter two Network development inputs Network network requirements and future system future and operability. requirements network they because affect triggers to particular these respond (FES)Scenarios Energy Future customer requirements, focus four on triggers: (NDP). In this year’s Ten Gas Year (GTYS) Statement we Development our Network Several Process inputs trigger Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Future EnergyScenarios Customer requirements Key insights back-up whenwindgenerationislow. has lowerutilisationbutstillprovides lot ofrenewable generationgas-fired plant as annualdemand.Inscenarioswitha Peak demanddoesnotdeclineassharply than peakdemand. Peak supplycapacityismuchhigher and couldreach 93%by2040. considerably sincetheearly2000s Import dependencyhasgrown decisions intheirprojects. before makingfinalinvestment can usethemtoreserve capacity arrangements are inplace.Customers of CapacityAgreement (PARCA) The PlanningandAdvancedReservation connecting totheNTS. solutions toreduce thetimeandcostof project, Project CLoCC,usinginnovative Innovation Competition(NIC)funded In February2016webeganaNetwork unconventional gassources. experience andtohelpfacilitate processes toimprove thecustomer We are reviewing ourconnections , legislative change and asset health. We health. asset , legislative and change
Asset health Legislative change maintenance andreduce costs. within theNDPtoavoidunnecessary We willconsider theremoval ofassets four tosix(2017–19). identified whichwillcoverRIIOyears Output Measures (NOMs)havebeen Approximately 3,500Network equating toover400assethealthchanges. health ofover2,000assetsontheNTS, £75 milliononimprovements tothe In 2015/16wehaveinvestedover compressor units. Directive (MCP)affects 26ofour64 The draftMediumCombustionPlant LCP affects 16ofourcompressor units IPPC affects 8ofour24compressor sites. Combustion PlantDirective (LCP). Control Directive (IPPC)andLarge the IntegratedPollutionPrevention and came intoforce inJanuary2013combining The IndustrialEmissionsDirective (IED)
18
Chapter two 19
Flexible Operation These triggers are interlinked (see Figure 2.1) so a change in one trigger will affect another. knowWe thatcustomers’ gas requirements introduced. is legislation new when change may has which legislation, emissions is example An resulted in generators closing or reducing their Combined more using and plant coal of use Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plant instead. This patterns demand and supply the changed has on the network, which feeds into our FES.
Future Energy Scenarios Future
Capacity
Connections Evolving Supply and Demand è NTS Asset Health Customer Requirements Legislative Change Figure 2.1 Key NDP triggers As we outlined in our Chapter NDP defines 1, project and optioneering decision-making, our Certain projects. all for processes development triggers initiate Over the to the last NDP. 12 months,24 three triggers key have emerged requirements, customer work: NDP our from FES The health. asset and change, legislative 2.1 Introduction also influence the NDP. 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Network development inputs Network needs might change under the four scenarios. and demand to show how our customers’ this chapter we outline the evolution of supply In NTS. the on patterns demand and supply of future the of view a stakeholder-influenced provide they as analysis system our of all of basis the as FES the We use happen. might energy landscape is changing and what Our FES explore how the increasingly complex Future EnergyScenarios information. more find to where you tells and processes capacity This chapter outlines our connections and our customers’ project development timelines. with align closely to more and needs changing customers’ our to meet processes capacity We have updated our connections and Customer requirements Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 maintained or replaced. to be need they if to establish network our health campaign prioritises key assets on need maintaining or replacing. Our asset and ageing are assets NTS our of Many Asset health chapter. this in outlined are changes keylegislative The network. our operate we how affect might run is market energy European the that way to the Changes requirements. capability future meet can we that sure be also We must one is in maintaining our network capability. new legislation and establish how critical each by affected compressor every at to look need NDP. our for We triggers main the of one is Legislation years. ten next the over network our operate and plan we how affect significantly will Recent legislative changes, such as the IED, Legislative change
20
Chapter two 21
Our Gas Transporter Licence stipulates stipulates Licence Transporter Gas Our that capacity can only be made available theseto parties. We canWe only enter into transportation Gas and shippers with arrangements (DNO). Operators Network Distribution
. We haveWe produced a high-level overview of our processes application capacity and connection and chapter included have We 2.1. Table in section numbers help to you navigate to to the relevant section of this year’s GTYS 2.2.1 Our connection and capacity application processes This section outlines how our customers’ customers’ our how outlines section This have We NDP. our trigger can requirements connections, customer on information provided entry capacity and exit capacity. Anyone wishing connect to the to NTS can arrange for a connection directly with us. 2.2 Customer requirements In addition we can reserve capacity for you; youhowever, must be aware that a shipper must buy and hold your capacity. 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Customer requirements Customer Chapter two Customer requirements Our connectionandcapacityapplicationprocesses Table 2.1 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 requirements service key their and customers Our system. the from gas offtake and onto gas to flow have Capacity Rights connected customers currently and new Both customers. currently connected or and UNC) to the signatory not are (that New Site Developers Customers system the from gas toofftake Rights UNC) (DN) Distribution Network in information more Find long term) medium (short, system the onto gas to flow (UNC)) Capacity Rights Uniform Network Code tothe (signatory Gas Shipper GTYS (signatory to the tothe (signatory go to: go
and diversions modifications connections, new for (if required) NTS to the connections pipeline physical (A2O) Includes to offer Appliction Connections Our connection and capacity processes Appendix 2 2.2.2,Section 2– Chapter ✔ ✔ ✗
y+17) Auctions y+2 to years –gas (QSEC Capacity System Entry Quarterly Capacity Exit and Entry Section 2.2.3 Section 2– Chapter ✔ ✗ ✗ y+3) y+1 to years –gas capacity baseline (unsold within Windows Application Exit Appendix 2 2.2.4, Section 2– Chapter ✔ ✔ ✗ exit Capacity annual NTS Enduring Rights) – Evergreen –m+6 (Adhoc Rights) & Evergreen – to y+6 years y+4 –gas Annual (Enduring Window Application Exit Appendix 2 2.2.4, Section 2– Chapter ✔ ✔ ✗ flow changes flow for Capacity Flexible Appendix 2 2.2.4, 2.2.3, Sections 2– Chapter ✔ ✗ ✗
allocation) & capacity additional unsold/ – reserve (PARCA Agreement Capacity of Reservation Advanced Planning and Entry/Exit Appendix 2 2.2.5, Section 2– Chapter ✔ ✔ ✔ 22 Chapter two
23
We needWe assess to what impact a connection (new or modified) or a capacity change(supply or demand increase/decrease) will have on our operational capability our network and current strategies. In some cases we may need reinforceto our system ensure to we can capacity or connection customers’ our meet requirements. This was one of the key drivers for implementing the new process PARCA as we can now align any works we need The connection and capacity processes processes capacity and connection The NDP. our trigger customers our by initiated projects. customers’ our with complete to If you have any queries about our connections or capacity processes please contact the gas customer team directly. See Appendix 3 for our details. contact or retain ownership yourselves. ownership retain or summarises 2.2 Table the four different NTS available. currently are that connections gas on a chosen to System Operator/transporter, You can thenYou pass the connecting assets
. 1 http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/services/gas-transmission-connections/connect/ 1 We offerWe four types of connection the to 2.2.2 network our Connecting to NTS as well as modificationsexistingto connections NTS If you need a new connection or a modification anto existing NTS connection, you will need go to through the application offer to (A2O) process must (see section You 2.2.2). be aware that our connection (A2O) and Advanced and capacity (Planning processes Reservation of Capacity Agreement – PARCA) are separate. Our customers have theflexibility to initiate these two processes at their discretion; thehowever, two processes can become dependent on each The other. new PARCA process has been designedrun to in parallel with the A2O process prevent to the possibility of stranded capacity. will We only allocate reserved capacity if a full connection offer (FCO) has been progressed and accepted. itTypically, can months take up 12 to to progress and sign an This FCO. means that the A2O process (if required) needs to beto initiated at least months 12 before the capacity allocation date defined in the contractPARCA (see section and 2.2.5 Appendix 2 for more detail). 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas To connectTo your facility the to NTS you will need initiate to the A2O process. can You either have other parties build the facility’s adopted connection the have or connection theby host gas transporter (depending circumstances). their upon Chapter two Customer requirements provides: UNC The an existing connection. customer connections and modifications to new for framework transparent and a robust The Uniform Network Code (UNC) Code Network Uniform The to Offer (A2O) Customer Connections–Application the same approach as a new NTS connection. using considered be will request this supply) gas in increase an (e.g. request arrangement connection to the achange to make need you If NTS gasconnections Table 2.2 3 2 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Services/Gas-transmission-connections/Connect/Application-to-offer/ http://www.gasgovernance.co.uk/UNC Connections Interconnector International Storage Connections Exit Connections Connections Entry a formal connection application template connection offer full to a amodification to request how connection offer full of a content the of definition connection offer initial an of content the of definition to complete customers for
They can be for supply of gas from and/or delivery of gas to the NTS. tothe gas of delivery and/or from gas of supply for be can They These are connections to pipelines that connect Great later. Britain to back it other countries. delivering and NTS the from gas supplying for facilities, tostorage Connections – transporter gas another by operated system – Apipeline including: system connected of types (CSEPs). several points are exit There system connected at systems toconnected or (DN) network to point), (a supply a distribution premises tothe NTS the from supplied tobe gas allow connections These NTS. the into gas delivering of purpose the for facilities, Natural (importer) Liquefied or fields vaporisation (LNG) producing Gas gas from gas processing facilities todelivery Connections A pipeline operated by a party that is not a gas transporter, for transporting gas to premises topremises gas consuming more than 2,196 transporting for transporter, agas not is that aparty by operated A pipeline 2 NTS Gas Connections Categories provides provides
MWh per annum. can be found on our website our on found be can information on the A2O connections process The NTS connection application form and more the timescales associated with each stage. and process A2O the 2.2 summarises Figure – months to two –up offer connection – initial connection offer: timescales for National Grid to produce a connection offer (up to three months) to (up three offer connection initial/full to accept customers for timescales reconciled) and (variable offer connection full and (fixed) application fees for an initial connection offer application fees on an annual basis. the to review Grid National for a requirement (simple) or nine months (medium/complex) months nine or (simple) months to six –up offer connection full 3 .
24 Chapter two 25 2 Months 3 Months 3 Months 6 Months 3 Months 24 Months Offer Complex Full Connection Feasibility Study Applicant Decision Period Offer Medium Full Connection Feasibility Study Detailed Design, Applicant Decision Period Initial Connection Offer (Optional) Initial Connection Offer Construction and Commissioning
Offer Simple Not Required) Full Connection (Feasibility Study Figure 2.2 Process Application to Offer (A2O) 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Customer requirements complies with Licence Condition 4B NTS: the on pressure defined of types primary four are There Connection pressures of the pipeline. connecting is responsible party for the costs of connecting pipelines. For all options, the other options for the installation and ownership Transmission Connection Charging describes The Statement and Methodology for Gas approach for connecting pipelines. preferred our is This you. with remain will pipe the of ownership facility, to your NTS the from If you want to lay your own connecting pipeline Connecting pipelines MOC. a for those than higher significantly be timescales for more complex connections can and costs The to deliver. years to three up take can and million £2 around generally is connection the of cost the site, agreenfield at (MOC) Connection Offtake aMinimum For activity. the to undertake used materials and time the on based calculated are costs When you connect to the NTS, the connection Transmission Connection Charging The Statement and Methodology for Gas connections is set out in the publication Our charging policy for all customer charges application Connection 5 4 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 https://epr.ofgem.gov.uk//Content/Documents/Gas_transporter_SLCs_consolidated%20-%20Current%20Version.pdf http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Services/Gas-transmission-connections/Connect/Application-to-offer/ operating conditions. normal under NTS the of sections most in 38 at set are pressures assured these of number Asignificant customers. DN to our supply pressures required to of maintain security – are These minimum UNC the in defined Assured Offtake Pressures (AOP) as Pressures. Offtake Assured Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) see offtakes NTS/ For offtakes. point meter supply NTS 25 of pressure –Aminimum UNC the in defined as Pressures Offtake Standard barg of gas will be made available at at available made be will gas of barg barg, the anticipated minimum pressure pressure minimum anticipated the barg, 4 , which 5 .
of operating an economic and efficient system. efficient and economic an operating of pressure management is a fundamental aspect as guaranteed be cannot pressures these 33 than lower no pressures plan normal NTS operations with start-of-day currently We year-to-year. and to-season throughout the day, from day-to-day, season- pressurecompressors. Offtake varies to operating inlets and extremities system the at lower and compressors, operating of outlets and points entry at higher to be tend pressures offtake NTS General connectionpressure information J2.2. Section UNC the with tier, accordance in pressure to any connected point, meter supply any for pressure’ a‘specified request also may Shippers pressures. operating torelate typical pressures and indicate how AOPs and ANOPs assess we how to understand you help regarding historical pressures which should information provide can we aNExA, revising connection you require. When agreeing or Agreements depending (NExA) on the Exit Network or (NEA) Agreement Entry Network the in stated be will pressures These 36 months’ notice. months’ 36 least at with ANOPs revised of notified be under normal operation, the customer will met be not will pressures these that likelihood If our analysis shows capability an increasing connection area under normal operation. their in NTS the on available to be likely connected customers the minimum pressure indicate and to our directly pressures Pressures (ANOP) Anticipated Normal Operating Maximum Operating Pressure (MOP) Entry Point/Terminals. NTS and Exit NTS to connected relevant is and at operate can NTS the of section each that pressure maximum the is This – These are advisory advisory are –These barg. Note that that Note barg.
– 26
Chapter two 27
tailored the to needs of Spotlight: Opening theup Network NTS connection. NTS A Web-based Connections Platform Connections Web-based A designed improve to the customer experience, this innovative tool will use geographical data and customer information so customers can compare and assess suitable options for an Innovative Physical Connection Physical Innovative Solutions at connections gas unconventional high pressure. of non-traditional customers. non-traditional of designed to meet the requirement requirement the meet to designed Optimised commercial process commercial Optimised
By considering the three areas above in was which project, this believe we unison, gas Ofgem’s through funding awarded provide will Competition, Innovation Network service, supporting the innovative truly a connections. gas future all of development can findYou out more at www.ProjectCLoCC.com Through Project CLoCC(Customer LOw Cost Connections), we are helping customers by minimising the time and cost to connect to the gasNational (NTS). System Transmission we’ve customers, our to listened Having about all is that initiative an launched hold that obstacles main the addressing entry and exit customers back from getting connected – the current cost £2 (up to million) and duration three (up to years). The goal of Project CLoCC is halve to the cost of a while million, £1 than less to connection reducing the time it takes from initial enquiry beingto connected less to than one year. every challenging fundamentally We’re that so process, connection the of aspect we can make life easier for customers and offer more choice – an NTS that can support connections. small and large both Project CLoCC is looking at three main areas:
. 6 MW/minute can be offered for http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/gas-transmission-system-operations/capacity/constraint-management/ of the system location and/or the benefits of a higher pressure network. haveWe begun see to new types of connection biomethane and shale example for request, gas-powered natural and connections entry connections. exit stations refuelling vehicle connections these for requirements system The traditional more to different fundamentally are connections. project Many of you have told us that the existing connection regime does not meet your project’s connection NTS present our if and requirements, servicecontinues asit is,the majority of newand unconventional gas projects could be forced to try or networks, distribution to connections seek findto other ways of using the gas they produce. wantWe make to the NTS more accessible to these new gas sources, and are addressing this CLoCC. Project through challenge Evolving our connections process As a result of changes in the energy sector and development, gas unconventional in increase an we are seeing more connections the to NTS that were not viable or foreseen in the past. suppliers gas unconventional and new These see value in connecting the to NTS because 6 Ramp rates and notice periods Ramp rates and notice Directly connected offtakes restrictions have be can rates ramp Higher connection. simple a agreed subject completion to of a ramp rate study. Notice periods are typically defined as the number of hours’ notice for increases of up 50% and to greaterupto 25%, than 50% in terms of ramp rates and notice periods written into NExAs. A ramp rate (the rate at which the offtakeof gas can be increased at the offtake) of 50 of maximum offtake rate. These notice periods are required ensure to that pressures can be including stress system of times at maintained high demand. Notice periods will only be when circumstances these in enforced systemflexibility is limited. More detail regarding access system to flexibility can be found on our website in the Short Access Term System to Statement Methodology Flexibility 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Customer requirements Aggregated System Entry Point (ASEP) Point Entry System Aggregated each at market to the available capacity entry NTS interruptible and firm make We can types capacity entry NTS UNC. the of terms the under NTS the of a‘User’ considered is shipper Alicensed capacity. entry obtain and for apply can shippers licensed Only NTS. the onto gas to flow right the shippers gives capacity Entry capacity NTS entry 2.2.3 construction lead-times. Therefore we need require significant planning, resourcing and may projects reinforcement scale, the on system pressures and capability. Depending require system reinforcement to maintain Connecting a new supply or demand may so”. to do it’s economic as long as premises, to connect request reasonable any with comply and system pipeline economical and efficient an maintain and develop “must we that states 1995) in 1986 amended (as Act Gas The andConnections capacity 7 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 following: the of consists ASEP each at available made capacity firm of volume http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Gas-transmission-system-operations/Capacity/Entry-capacity/ at an ASEP, over and above obligated levels. ASEP, obligated an at above and over capacity entry NTS firm additional release obligated) (non- Capacity Entry NTS Incremental commitment. by User backed and demand to market over and above baseline, in response (obligated Capacity Entry NTS Incremental Licence. Gas our Transporter by defined – as Baseline NTS Capacity (obligated) Entry ) – firm capacity made available available made capacity ) –firm – at our discretion, we can can we discretion, our –at
7 . The . The
accept or deliver capacity. to NTS the on required works reinforcement any and timeline project developer’s the both This new process allows alignment between project. their of stages initial the at us approach to developers to encourage designed was 2.2.5) section (see PARCA process The making. decision their inform help and NTS the on impact potential the assess can we that so projects their to discuss a position in are they as soon as us approach should as much notice as possible. Project developers parts: two of consists ASEP an at available capacity entry NTS Interruptible of volume The used. being not is capacity entry NTS firm that demonstrated be can it where ASEPs at market to the available made be can capacity entry NTS Interruptible for the Users affected. Users the for capacity rights, without any compensation entry NTS interruptible limit may we then If there is physical congestion on the network, as interruptible NTS entry capacity. entry NTS interruptible as market to the resold be can days of number a for unused been has that capacity firm entry NTS –any (UIOLI) it Lose or it Use to the market at our discretion. our at market to the interruptible NTS entry capacity available Discretionary – we can make additional additional make can –we
28 Chapter two 29
9
2016 incremental obligated capacity obligated incremental 2016 entry obligated incremental for order In capacity be to released, and therefore the obligated entry capacity level be to increased, enough bids for entry capacity must be received during the QSEC auctions pass to an economic test. If this capacity can be substitution capacity via available made then it will be increased. be will it then This involves moving unused capacity from one or more system points a point to where there is excess demand. If incremental capacity requires reinforcement works it can only be a into enters customer the when triggered (seePARCA section 2.2.5). If insufficient bids are received, capacity in excess of the obligated level can be released mean would which basis, non-obligated a on that the obligated capacity level does not auctions. future for increase Monday on opened auctions QSEC The 7 March 2016 and7 March closed 2016 on 8 March Tuesday No bids were2016. received for incremental capacity. entry Bids received at all ASEPs were satisfied from current unsold obligated levelsfor future entry obligated incremental no and quarters released. was capacity
. For long-term capacity shippers capacity long-term For . 8 Quarterly System Entry Capacity (QSEC). Annual Monthly System Entry Capacity (AMSEC). Rolling Monthly & Transfer Trade (RMTnTSEC). http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/gas-transmission-system-operations/capacity/entry-capacity/ http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/gas-transmission-system-operations/capacity/entry-capacity/ http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Gas-capacity-methodologies/Entry-Capacity- Substitution-Methodology-Statement/ The QSEC auction is held every March and can be open for up ten to working days. NTS entry capacity is made available in quarterly (where strips Y+16 September to Y+2 October from Y is the current gas year). The AMSEC auction is run every February and NTS Entry Capacity is sold in monthly strips through September to from April Y+2. Y+1 This auction is as ‘pay bid’ andsubject a to minimum reserve price. The auction is open for four days from 8am 5pm. to Each auction window is separated two by business days as detailed in the UNC. The processing and allocation is completed after 5pm on each day. is heldThe on RMTnTSEC a monthly basis at the month ahead stage. Any unsold quantities fromAMSEC are made available in auctionthe RMTnTSEC andsold in monthly bundles. The auction and is as ‘pay bid’, subject the to same reserve price as AMSEC. can bid in three auctions: three in bid can 8 9 NTS entry capacity auctions obtain entryTo capacity a shipper can bid for capacity on the Gemini system through a series auctions of 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Customer requirements point consists of the following: offtake each at available made capacity firm of volume The point. offtake each at market to the available capacity Peak Off and firm We make types capacity exit NTS UNC. the of terms the under NTS the of ‘User’ a considered is DNO or shipper A licensed capacity. exit obtain and for apply can DNOs and shippers licensed Only NTS. the off gas to take right the (DNO) Operators Network capacityExit gives shippers and Distribution NTS exit capacity 2.2.4 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 above obligated levels. and over point offtake an at capacity firm at our discretion, we can release additional Incremental Capacity (non-obligated) – permanent. is capacity in increase This commitment. by User supported and demand to market response in baseline, above and over available made capacity firm Incremental Capacity (obligated) Licence. Gas our Transporter by defined Baseline Capacity (obligated) –as –
parts: three of consists offtake an at available capacity Peak Off of volume The used. being not is capacity firm that demonstrated be can it where points offtake at market to the available made is capacity Peak Off storage requirements. diurnal their to meet as well as Standard 1-in-20 Security NTS their to meet DNO the allows day. agas This of course the over rate asteady from away NTS the from gas of aquantity of offtake the to vary DNO the allows This available. capacity (flexibility) exit NTS make also we Users DNO our For affected. Users the for compensation any without rights, capacity Peak Off curtail may we then network, the on pressures low are there If
interruptible capacity. as market to the resold be can days, recent over unused been has that capacity firm –any (UIOLI) it Lose or it Use level as Off Peak capacity. Peak Off as level MNEPOR to the up capacity remaining any to release obligated are we forecast, demand 1-in-20 peak annual the of 80% than less published. Where this demand forecast is is Forecast Demand 1:30pmat NTS the Rate (MNEPOR) Offtake Point Exit NTS Maximum Unused Discretionary at our discretion. at our market to the available capacity Peak Off – we can make additional make can –we – during D-1
30 Chapter two 31
GWh/day. the capacity request is accepted. Capacity capacity unused moving involves substitution from one or more offtakes a point to where there is excess demand. If incremental capacity will customer the substitution via met be cannot need enter to as into reinforcement a PARCA works may be required meet to the capacity request (see section 2.2.5). the in submitted applications Successful AFLEC window will be allocated within ten business days of the application window Successful submitted applications closing. in the EAFLEC window (both increases and decreases) will be allocated on or September. 30 before a User apply to between 1 October to 30 June for capacity The capacity fromY. Year release date must not be earlier than the 1st of the (where month M is M+7 the month in later no and made) is application the which than 1 October The User in (or Y+6. Users in aggregate) must hold equal or to more than of the Baseline125% NTS exit (flat) capacity Ad-hoc Enduring Annual Exit (Flat) (Flat) Exit Annual Enduring Ad-hoc Capacity allows window application – This for the year in which the application is received or the application must exceed 1 DNOs apply for NTS exit (flexibility) capacity during July the 31 1 to enduring annual exit (flat) capacity application window. All capacity requests are subject network to analysis assess to the impact on system can requested capacity the Where capability. substitution through accommodated be
NTS exit capacity application windows windows capacity application exit NTS To obtain exitTo capacity a shipper can apply for capacity through four exit capacity windows: application Annual NTS (Flat) Exit Capacity (AFLEC) – capacity covering for is window application This allocated capacity The Y+3. to Y+1 period the and enduring not is window application this in therefore cannotbe increased or decreased. application this for period application The window July. is 31 1 to Capacity (Flat) Exit Annual Enduring window application This – (EAFLEC) Increase is for capacity covering the Y+6 period to Y+4 (where Y is the current gas year). The capacity enduring is window application this in bought and can be increased or decreased in a later application window (subject User to for period application The commitment). this auction July. is 31 1 to Capacity (Flat) Exit Annual Enduring application This – (EAFLEC) Decrease window allows a User decrease to their Y+1 Year from capacityenduring holdings Further window). July the following (October decreases and increases can be requested windows. application subsequent in auction this for period application The Julyis 2016. 15 1 to 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Customer requirements (flat) capacity and NTS entry capacity. entry NTS and capacity (flat) exit NTS enduring to reserve users allow that provisions application hoc ad UNC the extends and exit capacity release mechanisms and development of the long-term NTS entry a on based is PARCA framework The capacity. exit and entry NTS both for (PCA) Agreement Consent Planning the and capacity exit NTS for (ARCA) Agreement Capacity of Reservation Advanced the 2015. replaces It 2 February on The PARCA framework was implemented date. future agreed an at customer can buy the reserved capacity while they develop their own project. The acustomer for reserved to be capacity exit or and/ entry NTS long-term allows that contract abilateral is (PARCA) Agreement Capacity of Reservation Advanced and Planning The PARCAThe framework 2.2.5 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 of customers compared to the existing annual NTS capacity auction and application processes. application and auction capacity NTS annual existing the to compared customers of range awider to available therefore and developers project and parties UNC both to available are They their project become uncertain. should points’, ‘drop-out these of advantage take to able be would customer the a result, As arrangements. previous under than day gas first customer’s the to closer be would allocation Capacity allocation. capacity before points’ ‘drop-out logical with flexible, is process The project. their for processes connection and capacity NTS the align can customer The together. progress can projects the so required, is reinforcement where important particularly is this timelines; project our and customers the aligns It should their project to progress completion. available made be can capacity when around certainty greater with customer the provides It users. NTS other to available not will and user) NTS nominated their (or PARCA applicant the to exclusive be will Capacity NTS Reserved development without project full financial their commitment in on to formally early booking capacity. capacity exit and/or entry NTS reserve to customers help to designed is It Customers PARCA for Benefits
NTS customers/Users and us. and customers/Users NTS other customers, for PARCA benefits of anumber provides PARCA framework The shipper). and DNO (both aUser or a developer and by us agreed been aPARCA has where via substitution is only guaranteed for release provided be cannot that capacity Incremental and shipper). DNO (both aUser or PARCA by adeveloper a through reserved be also can Capacity processes. capacity (flat) exit NTS annual enduring and (QSEC) Capacity Entry System through the annual auctions for Quarterly provided via substitution will be made available be can that capacity incremental and capacity Baseline capacity, non-obligated incremental
32 Chapter two 33
Benefits for Us Benefits for other NTS Customers and Users to the existing auction/application mechanisms) increasing transparency for other NTS users. NTS other for transparency increasing mechanisms) auction/application existing the to The entry PARCA capacity process includes an ad hoc QSEC auction mechanism to allow other NTS users to compete for unsold QSEC before it isreserved. The process PARCA includes application a PARCA window during which other NTS users can approach us to sign a PARCA. This provides a prompt for those customers considering entering into a PARCA. It would allow multiple PARCAs to be considered together. This way, we will make best use of unsold levels of NTS capacity and existing system capability when determining how to meet our customers’ requirements. This will enable the most economic and efficient investment decisions to be made. Throughout thelifecycle of a PARCA, each customer must provide us with regular project progress updates. If a customer fails to provide the required information in the appropriate timescales, their may PARCA be cancelled and any reserved NTS capacity would either be used for another live or PARCA returned to the market. This will ensure that NTS capacity is not unnecessarily withheld from other NTS users. customerA PARCA will be required to provide financial security to reserve NTS capacity. If the customer cancels their PARCA, a termination amount will be taken from the security provided. This would be credited to other NTS users through the existing charging mechanisms. The timescales for the release of incremental NTS capacity to the applicant PARCA will be aligned to our timescales for providing increased system capability. This will take into account the Planning Act requirements for a reinforcement project. As a result, the risk of constraint management actions taking place and any costs potentially being shared with end consumerswill be reduced. They are available to both UNC parties and project developers and therefore available to a wider range of customers compared to the existing annual NTS capacity auction and processes. application Throughout thelifecycle of a PARCA, we will publish more information externally (compared Throughout the lifecycle of a PARCA, the customer will be required to provide regular project progress updates. would We not begin construction on any investment projectsuntil the customer has received full planning permission for their project. This will allow our case for any requiredinvestment to be clearly linked to our customer requirements. 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Customer requirements NTS interconnectors. and storage NTS points, exit and entry NTS to all apply PARCA arrangements The UNC. to the up signed aparty be not may or may and adeveloper, as such party, third other any or DNO shipper, agas be might A customer when the capacity requested can be delivered. and how to determine PARCA application the in provided information the use We will application requesting the capacity they need. Initially, a customer will submit a PARCA PARCA framework structure 2.2.6 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 to proceed to the next phase of activities. of phase next to the to proceed decision points where they can choose whether phased structure gives the customer natural 2.3). This 3(Figure 0to Phase Phase phases: logical four into split is PARCA framework The ahead. go will project their that certain is customer the once capacity (allocation of capacity) is only required to the commitment later. it Financial to buy option the with reserved been has capacity that customer the assures also It parallel. in projects customer and us to progress our respective the helps it PARCA that is the of A keyaspect 34 Chapter two 35 National Grid will issue the customer with the Phase 1 Output Report and the PARCA contract National Grid formally allocate the capacity to the customer (Allocation Date)
Within ten business days National Grid may trigger a PARCA Window and an ad hoc QSEC capacity auction customerWhere is a non code nominates party, a User(s) at least one month prior to capacity allocation date
National Grid initiate Phase 1 Works Customer provides demonstration information and annual financial security Customer submits application PARCA and PARCA application fee . 10
Capacity is delivered (Registration Date) National Grid formalprovides acceptance of a competent application to the customer within six business days National Grid initiate the Phase 2 Works Informal assessment completed
business days will conduct We network reinforcement if this is required National Grid receiptconfirm of the application within two National Grid thewill reserve capacity on behalf of the customer (Reservation Date) Customer approaches National Grid for initial project discussions
http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Services/Gas-transmission-connections/PARCA-Framework/ Phase 3 Up to 24 months Phase 2 Up to 60 months Up to 6 months Phase 1 Phase 0 More information on the PARCA process is process PARCA the on information More provided in Appendix 2 andon our website 10 Figure 2.3 framework phases PARCA 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Customer requirements [email protected] us know what you think by emailing us at You let can landscape. energy future the of elements important most the are believe you what on focus and evolve can document this so views your to hear keen We are on the future NTS capability and operability. effect the to quantify us require will which changes highlight can parties interested all future editions to be more collaborative so for is aim Our comment. and review your for 2016The GFOP future. the into and now NTS secure and safe aresilient, to maintain continue we ensure decision making and operational processes to our in to modifications leading signals market other and to you respond we way the in change GFOP The processes. our and challenges these may pose to NTS operation what and to 2050 out NTS the of capability changing requirements may impact the future The The to this area. increasingly important (GFOP) Gas Future Planning Operability a separate GTYS the of part impact of changesin your requirements as the considered have we years, previous In Gas Future Operability Planning 2.2.7 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 GFOP document to provide a clearer focus focus aclearer to provide document document outlines how your is a first draft of this document document this of draft afirst is . This year we have developed developed have we year . This may trigger a .
complement the GTYS uncertainties. The GFOP needs, future operational challenges and and quantify future gas transmission network vehicle in which all can discuss participants aclear have currently not does market The changes will be documented in the GTYS the in documented be will changes and impacts resulting Any NTS. the across physical investments (assets) are considered (rules), operational arrangements (tools) and make sure that the right commercial options to parties interested all with to work We need 2.4). (Figure documents of suite Energy of document and our other Future Future other our and will fill that gap and and gap that fill will .
36 Chapter two
37
UK gas transmission Gas Ten Year Year Gas Ten Statement 2016 NOVEMBER 2016 GTYS how we are toresponding these impacts what options takingwe are forward what changes makingwe are to our decision- making processes what changes makingwe are to our operational processes and what the consequences couldbe on service.our
In outline: will we Actions What action we need take to now in our investments or processes etc.
will GFOP what the the what consequences couldbe on service.our what capabilitywhat potential what options we are aware of when they are are they when occur to likely required is their extent – or localised national what operability what issues we have identified
The allow us to clearly more articulate: Network Impact Network then assess We and impact the document what this could mean network our for and our customers. problemsWhat we may encounter and what possible there solutions may be. Anything decidewe take to on further action in will detailed be the GTYS.
will will GFOP provide a forstarting point and innovation collaboration. discuss potential discuss (rules, options tools and assets) quantify capability requirements identify and quantify risk operability understand impact the
Analysis thenWe complete network our basedanalysis scenarios the on assumptionsand we have made. The then help us to:
on first e.g. areas of greatest uncertainty or impact on the future of gas, network our Assumptions needWe make to assumptions the about uncertainmore the of elements and which future areas focus to customers. and will allow you to: you allow will
GFOP explore options/opportunities for for options/opportunities explore working. collaborative we should look at challenge our assumptions our challenge provide evidence for other areas might change might tell us what you think might happen tell us how your use of the NTS
Scenarios useWe our Energy Future Scenarios as the starting point for all our network future planning. The Figure 2.4 Operability Planning documentThe role of the Gas Future 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Future scenarios energy increase in demand for gas-fired power power gas-fired for demand in increase manufacturing was counteracted by an During this period, declining demand in relatively stable at around 1,080 around at stable relatively was 2010, and demand 2005 gas Between Changing GB gas demand challenges. new to these to adapt strategies we are developing our planning and operational how outline 4we 3and Chapters In Operator. System the as us for challenges of a number day-to-day and within-day basis. This presents a on both demand, NTS zonal and national of NTS have led to increasingly variable levels the of use customers’ our in seen have we changes The future. in look might it how and decade last the over changed has demand The following section explains how gas Evolution demand of gas 2.3.1 wasscenarios highly positive. Overwhelmingly, 2015 our on received we feedback Most stakeholders from across the energy industry. energy scenarios with the involvement of future credible of aset produce we year Every years. ten next the over to evolve continue could supply and demand how of view our establishes It 2005. since changed have NTS the of requirements demand and supply, and how our customers’ This section describes the evolution of Future scenarios energy 2.3 11 11 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/services/gas-transmission-connections/connect/ TWh/year. TWh/year.
A-rated boilers. efficient, new, more with boilers gas old improving levels of insulation and replacing consumer awareness have led to homeowners Government incentives and heightened 2004, year. 2% Since of per average an at 400 of apeak hit demand gas Residential gas. of usage the in increase to asharp led This fuel. generation thermal preferred the as returning to gas led coal of price the in 2015 arise until when sector marginal within the UK power generation over gas for power generation. Gas remained favoured was coal that meant prices coal lower as sharply fell 2010, In demand gas generation. 2016 publication (FES) inscenarios our Future Scenarios Energy out more information about each of the You find can Scenarios. Energy Future factors accounted for in our four 2016 political, economic, social and technological 1.1), 1(Figure Chapter In the showed we year. this changes big no are there and 2016 to the Future Scenarios Energy approach our reaffirmed year. on This year consistency to see want they that us told stakeholders our TWh/year in 2004 and has fallen steadily steadily fallen has and 2004 in TWh/year 11 .
38
Chapter two 39
C er er and Progression No r re household efficiency improvements are made installed. appliances are heating alternative and Power Consumer show a slower decrease as a result of lower energy efficiency uptake, combined with growth in the distributed gas combined heat and power (CHP) sectors (Figure 2.5).
and Gone r re
, all the scenarios show increases increases show scenarios the all , scenarios show a notable decline in t r e ree
Total gas demand under our four scenarios Total in demand as favourable gas prices indicate prices indicate gas favourable as demand in a greater use of gas for power generation in the coming years. This is anticipated stabilise to beyond out heading period longer the over The Progression Slow 2018. Figure 2.5 Green In our FES gas demand in the UK in the long term as more 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Future scenarios energy in their networks through their gas-holder storage embedded of level the reduced have declined, Distribution Network Operators (DNO) steadily demand residential of levels As future. the in NTS the to use want may customers our how of indication an us gives with our stakeholder engagement feedback, combined years, to ten five last the over UK The changing nature of gas demand in the flexibility Network (DN) Distribution Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 NTS exit(flexibility)capacitybookingsbyDNOs Figure 2.6 2015 flex 2009 flex
requirements 2010 flex
2011 flex
the flex capacity requested. capacity flex the accept always cannot we NTS the of operation to the risk in 2.6). increase to the However, due Figure (see requested being capacity flex the in years recent in increase asteady seen We have levels. capacity (flexibility) exit NTS by booking linepack NTS using for requirements their signal 3). DNOs Chapter (see levels storage daily required their to meet linepack NTS of use the on rely increasingly now they aresult, As programme. closure 2012 flex 2013 flex 2014 flex
40 Chapter two
41
a C er er o a r re We areWe seeing increasing levels of solar and and onshore to capacity connecting wind 2.7). Figure electricityoffshore (see grids This means that gas-fired generation is likely to declineto from its present high. Itwill become theto challenge of forecasting CCGT demand. a more marginal fuel (i.e. operating with low load factors) up 2020 and to beyond. As both the electricity System Operator and balancing of range a have suppliers individual tools available, it is difficult to predict when will beCCGTs used. They tend be to used in combination with the other options to maintain a system balance. This all adds The behaviour is expected of CCGTs their as unpredictable more become to with correlate will generate to requirement wind, (e.g. output generation renewable solar and etc) the interaction with other tools. balancing
a r re o
a e ree
The role of CCGTs In the last year we have seen an increase in annual gas demand for Combined Cycle Gas The costTurbines of gas (CCGTs). relative to coal has fallen significantly, making gas the generation. electricity for fuel favourable more Furthermore, as a result of EU environmental directives, coal power stations are being retired with the last site expected close to in 2025. Predicting gas demand based on the price therefore is gas and coal between differential technique. suitable longer a no CCGTs play an importantCCGTs role in balancing the balancing other alongside system electricity other storage, (interconnection, tools that response) demand-side and generation Operator. System electricity the to available are This means do not that carry CCGTs the entire renewable in volatility so burden, balancing volatility in result always not does generation in CCGT gas demand. Figure 2.7 Forecast levels of coal, wind and solar capacity 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Future scenarios energy Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Normalised CCGT profile Two verydifferentCCGTprofiles(normalised) Figure 2.8 typical range. the on overlaid shown, is profile average the CCGTs.cases of both In profiles within-day historical different very two 2.8 shows Figure a ra e
o era e
electricity, if at all, during the rest of the day. the of rest the during all, at if electricity, over the ‘tea-time’ peak, generating little only responds that profile aCCGT observe however, we right the On periods. winter throughout the day at peaking 6:00pm in occurs generation CCGT left, the On o
42 Chapter two 43 C er er r re Exports Europe to via the Interconnector UK (IUK) are highly sensitive both to the overall UK supply/demand balance and continental gas markets. The import and export levels flowing uncertainty. to subject are IUK through
r re
e ree t r
Figure 2.9 Gas demand from the NTS to Ireland Exports Exports account for around a sixth of total gas demand. currently We have two export interconnectors in the UK, one Ireland to and one Continental to the Europe. Corrib In 2016, gas field started injecting into the Irish system, resulting in lower levels of exports Ireland. to expectWe that while Corrib is running there will be a reduction in exports from Great Britain it However, is(GB). anticipated that the gas field production will be relatively short lived, with rates reducing over time and the reliance 2.9). (Figure returning gradually exports GB on 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Future scenarios energy will be running on a peak day regardless of of regardless day apeak on running be will stations power gas-fired most that meaning conditions to peak due is This demand. peak in manner similar in a reflect not does demands The short-term increase in annual gas to our annual demand scenarios. our peak demand scenarios, which are aligned 2.10 day. Figure apeak on shows generation power gas-fired of amount expected the weather. This relationship is combined with relationship between daily demand and historical the on based is demand Peak demand daily Peak Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 1-in-20 diversifiedpeakgasdemand Figure 2.10 t r e ree
r re
in more detail in Chapter 3. Chapter in detail more in is explained which profiling, to within-day changes to assess used are scenarios our However, data. demand peak within-day produce not do we work FES our Through demand within-day Peak as residential peak demands scale with annuals. less pronounced, trends to annual scenarios In the longer term, peaks follow similar, albeit to coal. favourable more prices gas 7%of with factor load wind alow assumes analysis Our year. the of rest the throughout run they how r re C er er
44 Chapter two 45
o t t to o w o w to and operation of the NTS. In recent years we have shown how supply patterns on the NTS are changing and how they are expected to become more uncertain in the future. shows some of the changesFigure 2.11 we have seen from today. to the mid-1990s From 2000s, to the mid-1990s supply patterns were dominated the by UK Continental Shelf Gas(UKCS). mainly entered the system at terminals on the east coast and travelled in a north south to pattern. Mid 00s to 2016
o t t expands on expands to o w publication gives details of of details gives publication
by adding locational information and information locational adding by FES Figure 2.11 Changing flow patterns on the NTS Mid 90s to mid 00s The following section explains how gas supply gas how explains section following The has changed over the last decade and how it sources supply Gas forward. going look could which variable increasingly become have presents a number of challenges for us as 2.3.2 gas of supply Evolution the System Operator (see Chapters 3 and 4). supply gas GB Changing FES Our 2016 annual and peak gas supply for each of our four scenarios. GTYS The 2016 the 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas highlighting implications for the future planning future the for implications highlighting Chapter two Future scenarios energy declined, new imports were connected: UKCS the as onwards, mid-2000s the From For example, high flows from Milford Haven Haven Milford from flows high example, For deal with multiple supply pattern possibilities. to able be to system adaptable a sufficiently to develop have we as planning system future has increased considerably. This affects demand to meet needed patterns supply of range credible the changes, these of aresult As Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Historic gassupplycapacityandpeakdemand Figure 2.12
mcm/d 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 LNG at Grain and Milford Haven. Milford and Grain at LNG Continental gas (BBL) at Bacton. Norwegian gas at Easington. 0 Historic peakdemand Norway 2000 /01
2001 /02 2002 /03 IUK 2003 /04 2004 /05 BBL 2005 /06 2006 /07 LNG
2007 /08 as shown in Figure 2.12. demand, peak over capacity of surplus alarger giving decreased, has demand increased, has supplies of range the as time same At the added. were sites storage medium-range new of anumber addition, In discussed in more detail in Chapters 3 and 4. 3and Chapters in detail more in discussed for planning and operating our network are available. These issues and the implications capacity exit making when uncertainty this for to We plan have limited. is capability lower, are exit flows Haven Milford if but highsupport exit capability in South Wales, 2008 /09 UKCS 2009 /10 2010 /11 Storage 2011 /12 2012 /13 2013 /14 2014 /15
2015 /16
46
Chapter two o t o t 47 p rt epe e r a
t re e er p rt ree a t r . These represent represent These . ha e
C C t e t Slow Progression Slow
Figure 2.13 Annual gas supply for Consumer Power 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Annual and peak gas supply gas peak and Annual supplies gas annual show 2.14 and 2.13 Figures in two of our scenarios: Power Consumer and the of elements different for cases extreme total supply. Chapter two Future scenarios energy imported gas that could be any mixture of of mixture any be could that gas imported The ‘generic import’ hatched area represents Scenarios). Volume Supply and Demand (Gas 5 Appendix in shown are projections flow terminal Detailed 2040. before to zero fall will terminals sub some through flows that means In the all scenarios UKCS declining production higher levels of imported gas. to much leading gas, shale no is there and low In In room for imports. less leaves This scenarios. other the of any in (including UKCS and shale gas) are higher than In Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 m ear Annual gassupplyforSlowProgression Figure 2.14 Slow Progression Consumer Power 120 100 2 40 60 80 0 0 2000 Continent UKCS
2004 Shale , supplies from the UK UK the from , supplies 2008 , UKCS production is LNG 2012 History Green gas Generic imports 2016 Future
2020 Norway flows in 2025 is from 3 from is in 2025 flows the existing supply infrastructure. by met be can demand peak the years all in that shows chart The each. in demands peak the and scenarios four the 2025at in capability along with the peak supply capability Figure 2.15 shows the current peak supply scenarios. our all in demand gas peak to satisfy physical is supply capability more than enough of level current the 2016 our In scenarios, and continental gas in the Generic Import. dependent on the balance between LNG in in planning and operating the NTS. For example, some indication of the challenges we face with give figures The gas. continental and LNG Slow Progression 2024 Import dependency 2028 2032 , the range of LNG LNG of range , the bcm up to 15 up bcm 2036 2040 bcm, bcm, 100% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
0
%
m rt e en en 48 Chapter two 49 C mcm mcm C er er ha e ree a r re terminals at Milford Haven, a loss of 86 per the At start day. of the scenarios this results in a margin of approximately 115 highlightsper Figure the day. margin 2.16 by which supply exceeds demand, with the N-1 condition applied, and shows that all of our scenarios pass this test. r a r re C t e t e ree e
t ra e ea e a
Figure 2.15 demand Peak supply capacity and 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas To ensure thereTo is sufficient peak supplyto meet demand we carry test, out as the N-1 Commission. European the by implemented This assesseswhether there is sufficient supply meetto demand when the largest single piece of infrastructure is removed. For all scenarios this represents losing supply from both LNG Chapter two Future scenarios energy new capacity to take a share of the market. the of ashare to take capacity new high LNG import, developers may wish to open carbon generation. Similarly, in a scenario with increasingly dominated by intermittent low or to an support electricity generation market year, the through rate aconstant at to produce make best use of shale gas, which is expected to storage to develop operators for acase be may there example, For developments. new for However, there may be commercial reasons infrastructure solely to meet peak demand. supply new for requirement no is there that 2.16, Figure N-1 day chart, peak shows The Supply Infrastructure Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Peak dayN-1margins Figure 2.16 e ree
r re by terminal are provided in Appendix 5. Appendix in provided are by terminal flows the showing Charts gas. continental and one where the generic is import all one where the generic is import all LNG, scenario: each for cases two are there possibilities supply of range full To the capture terminal. supply by split flows peak and annual show we NTS, the on scenarios supply gas our of implications the to examine order In r re C er er
50 Chapter two 51
. The analysis for this year’s 13 was mostly carried out before the returned service to following the testing. whole a as site They have stated that this should have a minimal impact on the performance of the GTYS withdrawal from service Based in June 2016. the at us to available information best the on time, we assumed that Rough would be in analysis. the of duration the service throughout In Appendix 5 we show details for space and deliverability at Rough, but we note that these site the until provisional as regarded be should is returned service to and all testing has been completed. This is expected March by 2017. Imports The UK has a diverse set of import options with and Netherlands the Norway, from pipelines sources international other from and Belgium, in the form of LNG. There are currently no plans of Details interconnection. pipeline increased for existing and proposed LNG sites and existing interconnectors are given in Appendix 5. . In a 12 bcm of space, both for http://www.centrica-sl.co.uk/regulation/remit/2015-67 http://www.centrica-sl.co.uk/regulation/remit/2015-33 http://www.centrica-sl.co.uk/regulation/remit/2015-33 further development, Centrica Storage Limited Limited Storage Centrica development, further decided that part of the facility would not be 12 13 Storage Many new storage sites have been proposed over the last ten years and there are currently plans for nearly 9 for and facilities fast-cycle medium-range existing of Details storage. seasonal long-range and proposed storage sites are provided in 5. Appendix CentricaIn March 2015, Storage Limited announced a reduction theto capacity of the Rough long-range storage site for up six to while measure precautionary a as months investigative work was undertaken. In June an additional2016, issue was discovered. As a result, all injections and withdrawals were 42 least at of period initial an for suspended further investigation, of period a Following days. Centrica Storage Limited now aim make to 20 (from total a of 29) wells available for withdrawal theby second half of November 2016 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Legislative change The Industrial Emissions Directive control emissions from all industrial activity. and directives that determine how we should targets agreed has (EU) Union European The directives Emissions 2.4.1 what impact these changes will have on our outline We will years. ten next the over NTS the operate and plan we how impact will that This section outlines the key legislative changes Legislative change 2.4 14 14 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 50 input athermal with units for emissions to industrial applicable is and 2013, 6January on force into came IED The who relies on the NTS. everyone for implications with adecade, over biggest change to environmental legislation in CCGT’s plant, to generate electricity instead. instead. electricity to generate CCGT’s plant, as such sources, other using are customers the emissions legislation. This means that our with to comply usage plant coal their reduce significantly or close to either have particular, whole. Our customers, energy generators in a as industry energy the impacts IED The key features of emissions legislation. the 2.17 summarises Figure page next the on fleet. compressor current our impact heavily Directive, (LCP) Plant Combustion Large the and (IPPC) Directive Control and Prevention Two elements of IED, the Integrated Pollution pieces of European emissions legislation. existing of anumber together brought It legislation.htm http://ec.europa.eu/environment/industry/stationary/ied/ here: found be can Directive Emissions Industrial the of A copy MW and above. above. and MW 14 (IED) is the the is (IED)
changes in Chapter 5. legislative these with to comply order in doing are we what 3and Chapter in network a further 26 of our compressor units. compressor 26 our of a further impact will this anticipate we legislation draft 2017. by 19 current December the on Based expected to be transposed into UK legislation 2018 is and by 1January force” “in be currently draft legislation, which needs to is This apply. will Directive (MCP) Plant 50 to below 1 from input athermal with units For by 2023. with comply must countries minimum standards emission that all European The IED legislation forms the new mandatory outlined in Chapter 5. are legislation this with to comply sites our to adapt doing are we what of Details units. compressor driven turbine gas 16 64 our of impacts LCP directive The sites. compressor 24 23 our of NTS impacts IPPC The 3). Chapter (see accommodate these changing requirements to system adaptable an to provide able to be have we and NTS the use customers our how These emission legislation changes impact on MW, the Medium Combustion Combustion MW, Medium the MW MW
52 Chapter two 53
MW units MCP Can use affected Can use affected that compressors do not comply for with ELVs use’ ‘emergency for less than 500 hours per year IED & Ecodesign Directive. Defines Directive. Fills gap between emissions limits for below 50
BREF document for combustion plant due to be finalised in 2017 Through Limited Through Lifetime Derogation the operator not to declares operate plant than for more 17,500 hours until 31/12/2023
MCP comes into force in 2017, MCP comes into force with compliance required by 2030 with compliance required MW
LCP limits for 50 and above units Defines emissions BREF documents draw conclusions on what the BAT is for each sector by IED affected Compressors not meeting new hadELVs to stop operating by 31 December31 2015 Limited a unless Derogation Lifetime applied for or the unit entered into use emergency
IED and MCP Key Features IED Directive All our gas-driven that compressors emissions produce above the threshold set by the IED Permits specify the emission limit to values (ELVs) be complied with based which are on BAT must be compliant with new limits by 31 December 2023 Industrial Emissions
3
for 3 new 3 IPCC new and existing plant plant; 75 mg/Nm Installations must be operated with a permit Set new ELV for Set new ELV oxide nitrogen Set new ELV for for Set new ELV carbon monoxide 100 mg/Nm 50 mg/Nm for existing plant
Apply for permit which states Apply for permit which states Best Available Techniques (BAT) (BAT) Techniques Best Available emissions limits to be achieved using emissions limits to be achieved MCP Below 50 MW IED 50 MW & above The following sections summarise the main the summarise sections following The elements of IED and MCP that impact upon our compressor fleet. More detail about what we are doing comply to with these legislative which highlighting maps with along changes, compressor sites are affected, are provided in Chapters 3 and 5. Figure 2.17 IED and MCP emissions legislation key featuresIED and MCP emissions 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Legislative change 16 16 15 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 The IPPC The Control (IPPC) Directive Integrated Pollution Prevention and environmental impacts. with due consideration given to potential local reduction of total mass emissions within the UK) installations (in order, for example, to maximise utilisation high on focusing employed, is be if maximised a network-wide approach Consequently environmental benefits can fleet. the across greatly varies installations The utilisation of National Grid’s compressor 5. Chapter in found be can works these on information Further directive. IPPC the with compliance to ensure order in sites compressor three on working currently We are unit. each for air to the (ELVs) Values Limit Emission maximum a permit. These permits will the specify installations covered by the regime have compressor our of all that toWe ensure have considered. options the of benefits balance between costs and the environmental pollutants. The BAT assessments provide a all potential options to prevent emitting these to assess used been have information) more (BAT, for Techniques below see Available Best that demonstrate must we To apermit obtain to operate. apermit have (CO)) must monoxide carbon and (NOx) nitrogen of (oxides any installation with a high pollution potential A copy of the IPPC directive can be found here: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=URISERV:l28045 http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=URISERV:l28045 here: found be can directive IPPC the of A copy BREF documents can be found here: http://eippcb.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reference/ here: found be can documents BREF 15 , implemented in 2008, states that that states 2008, in , implemented
documents outline: BREF IED. The and directive IPPC the both four years to implement the conclusions. have will we finalisation of date the From in 2017. finalised be will this that anticipated 2013) is (June it form and draft in is plants combustion large for document BREF The for each non-compliant unit. documents will outline the permit conditions BREF the from drawn BATThe conclusions BREF BAT Reference (BREF) obtained from the environment agencies. be may Review Network the of a copy and information (SEPA). Further Agency Environment Scottish the and (EA) Agency discussed and agreed with the Environmental are findings The sites. compressor from out by National Grid NTS to review all emissions the annual Network Review, which is carried This network-wide approach is described in
used in each sector each in used techniques and currently processes current emission levels the BAT the techniques to consider in determining with the legislation. emerging techniques to comply 16 documents have been adopted under
54 Chapter two 55
Gas turbines and gas engines that operate less than 500 operating hours per year are set out in this point. The operator of such plant shall record the used operating hours.” not covered by the emission limit values We haveWe already made the declaration above and have been allowed use to this derogation for our current affected units. provision use Emergency plant using possibility of the includes IED The use: emergency for “ 500 hours or less. with compliance our on information Further This means that we may be able use to for units compressor non-compliant our canLCP be found in Chapters 3 and 5.
, implemented in 2001, 17 MW and above provided certain MW or more. All of our compressor The operator makes a declaration before before declaration a makes operator The The operator submits each year a record of the number of hours since 1 January 2016 set outThe in the ELVs permits as per the IPPC directive are complied with. the ELV or planthe ELV upgrade to comply to by a pre-determined date Choose to optout – must comply with restrictions defined in the derogation Derogation Lifetime Limited including or the Emergency Use Derogation. 1 January not operate to the 2014 plant starting from hours 17,500 than more for 1 January and ending 2016 no later than December31 2023 Choose to opt in – must comply with
A copy of the LCP directive can be found here: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=URISERV:l28028 17 Large Combustion Plant (LCP) Directive Directive (LCP) Plant Combustion Large The directive LCP 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas to 31 December 31 to 2023 combustion plant may be exempt from compliance with the ELVs for plant 50 fulfilled: are conditions 2) Derogation Lifetime Limited In the IED it states that from January 2016 units that fall within the directive LCP must meet definedthe ELVs in the directive. are The ELVs legally enforceable limits of emissions air to for each set out unit. LCP in theELVs directive can be met in one oftwo ways: 1) applies to all combustion plant with a thermal a with plant combustion all to applies input of 50 Chapter two Legislative change Legislation timelines Legislation timelines Figure 2.18 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 with the requirements. the with comply to (to 2030) years five a further have now which NTS, an of security and safety the to ensure required are that compressors gas for derogation alonger secured has Grid compressors was originally 2025. National level. The time derogation for gas-driven European at a finalised was Directive MCP 2017.by 19 2015 December the During Directive will be transposed into UK legislation (MCP) Plant Combustion Medium The (MCP) Directive Medium Combustion Plant IED cameintoforce 2013 6 201 1 201 must stopoperating meeting newELVs Compressors not Make declaration 1 201 Limited Lifetime requirements of to complywith 2014 Derogation 2014 2015 2015
2016 2015 plants expectedtobe BREF forcombustion 2016 6 2016 Limited Lifetime commences implemented Derogation MCP tobetransposed 1 201 2017 Time bywhichthe Time into UKlegislation 201 2018 member statesmustcomply
with theprovisions ofBREF Expected datebywhen for combustionplants 2019
2020 2020 2020
Likely timebywhich the MCPwillcome
2018 2021 M 2021 into force
2022 plant and type develop mitigation plans. this of audit an 2016/17 undertake will we During Directive. this of part as captured also are systems, pre-heat as such plants, the NTS compressor units. Other combustion 26 of afurther affect will and compressors gas to smaller applies Directive MCP The 2019 1 202 2023 Derogation finishes Limited Lifetime 2024 2025 2026 2027 1 20 0 2028 MCP Derogation finishes forNTS compressors 2029
2030 56 Chapter two 57 This includes network-related rules on on rules network-related includes This Interconnection at procedures nominations Points, rules for imbalance charges and between balancing operational for rules also This Operators. System Transmission reflects the new Gas Day arrangements balancing GB the applicable across are that zone via this code. It applied in Great Britain from 1 October 2015. Commission Regulation (EU) No 984/2013 Octoberestablishing of 14 2013 a Allocation Capacity on Code Network Systems Transmission Gas in Mechanisms No (EC) Regulation Supplementing and and (CAM). 715/2009; This seeks create to more efficient allocation Points Interconnection the at capacity of System Transmission adjacent between Operators. CAM introduced the revised 05:00-05:00 Gas Day arrangements at Points. Interconnection Commission Regulation (EU) No 312/2014 establishing Marchof 26 2014 a Network Transmission of Balancing Gas on Code Networks; (BAL). This specifies rulesto ensure booked used is Points Interconnection at capacity efficientlyto address issues of contractual pipelines. transmission in congestion Commission Decision on amending on Decision Commission Annex Regulation I to (EC) No 715/2009 natural the to access for conditions on gas transmission networks [2012/490/EU, Management (Congestion 24/08/2012]; Procedures (CMP)). (c) (b)
The focus date to has been on: (a)
Following referendum the UK’s result on EU Grid National 2016, June in membership 2.4.2 Other legislation notes that EU rules and regulations will continue apply to in the UK until such time as membershipthe UK’s of the EU is withdrawn. National Grid will continue take to forward whilst requirements EU of implementation with relationship UK future the of terms the the including EU, the Internal Energy Market, are defined. Package Third Union European One of the most important pieces of European is legislation markets electricity and gas referred as to the Third Package. This was transposed into law in Great Britain (GB) by regulations that came into force in 2011. The Third Package creates a framework to promote cross-border trade and requires Guidelines and legally binding of number a Network Codes be to established and implemented with the aim of: promoting between integration improving liquidity; Member States’ gas markets; and promoting the efficient use of interconnectorsto ensure that gas flows accordingto price signals, where to i.e. it is valued most. priority take requirements legislative These EU associated and legislation domestic GB over Uniform the including codes, and regulations Transmission the as We, (UNC). Code Network System Operator, have raised a series of EU related UNC Modificationsto comply with legislation. the 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Legislative change package EU legislation see Appendix 6. third with to comply activity future our and to date activity our on information more For Regulation respectively). REMIT and the REMIT Implementing as 1348/2014 known (EU) (commonly 1227/2011 (EU) by Regulation Regulation and forward taken was This transparency. and package concern energy market integrity third EU the of elements legislative Further 2017. in reached to be expected agreement with process regulatory EU the through going currently are Capacity Incremental on (CAM) Code on Capacity Allocations Mechanisms Network to the proposal amendment an and Transmission Tariff Structures for Gas (TAR) Harmonised on Code Network EU-wide An (d) 19 19 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications-and-updates/gas-security-supply-significant-code-review-conclusions 1 May 2016. May 1 EU market integration. Implemented facilitate thus and flows gas cross-border in order to remove perceived barriers to operational and technical arrangements Operators to implement harmonised TransmissionThis obliges System Exchange Rules. Data and Interoperability on Code aNetwork 2015 April establishing 30 of 703/2015 No. (EU) Regulation Commission
stress in exchange for apayment. for exchange in stress system of times during use they gas of amount the to reduce to bid them allowing consumers, gas large for to market route a as act will mechanism new year. This this 1October on live went mechanism 2015, the gas demand-side response Following a successful trial in summer 2015. 1October from effect took interruptions into cash-out. These changes consumer involuntary of costs the incorporate signals price as security supply to deliver arrangement incentivises gas shippers emergency. The reformed cash-out an in settled) are demand and supply which differences in each gas shipper’s cash-out arrangement (the unit price at conclusions In September 2014 Ofgem issued its balance supply and demand. appropriate incentives to gas shippers to provide rules market the that by ensuring emergency supply agas of duration and severity likelihood, the to reduce was review emergency arrangements. The aim of the gas the with concerns its to address supply of security gas into (SCR) Review Code 2011, Significant its began January In Ofgem Review Code Significant Ofgem 19 which included a reformed
58 Chapter two
59
end of their design life, we have implemented a five-year programme of worksto resolve current asset issues as efficiently as possible customers. our to disruption minimising while outlined Campaign, Health Asset our is This it is in the interests ofconsumers meet to only three of the five category targets. As the NTS is ageing and we have an the reaching assets of number increasing in further detail later in this chapter. We mustWe meet specific targets that are related means change This NTS. the of condition the to that asset health is a key RIIO measure in terms of allowances and output. The targets we have been set cover an eight-year period from 2021. to 2013 In aggregate we have plans deliver to a residual risk through investment that meets the RIIO target. the However, licence breaks the NTS into five primary categories and through examination of the risks we now believe that the NTS. RIIO has introduced Network Output Output Network introduced has RIIO NTS. the Measures (NOMs) as a proxy for measuring the health and thus level of risk on the network.
24 compressor sites with 75 compressor 75 with sites compressor 24 units, control 20 valves and 530 above-ground approximately assets these Of (AGIs). installations of pipeline70% and of our 77% other assets will be over 35 years old at the end of RIIO-T1. and maintenance asset our developed have We maintain to order in programmes health asset levels. appropriate to NTS the of health the on focuses programme maintenance asset Our monitoring and maintenance routine delivering the health of our assets versus our expected programme health asset the cycles; life asset addresses assets that are either end of life or invasive more typically through failed, have refurbishment. or replacement as such works These programmes ensure that we can consistently deliver a safe and reliable system stakeholders’ and customers’ our meet to arrangements control price RIIO The needs. have changed how we report on the health of Asset health is a becoming a more frequent trigger our to Network Development Process maintenance asset explores section This (NDP). and our asset health programme, from identification of an issue, throughto resolution. The NTS comprises km of pipeline, 7,600 2.5 Asset health Asset health 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two are: strategy the of application of Examples requirements. maintenance to their react and throughout their lifecycle, we can plan, monitor in to be them expect we condition the and By understanding what our assets are doing maintenance activity. the for triggers and intervention of type the This consideration leads to decisions on the consequences should we lose functionality. and families asset the of modes failure likely the account into takes strategy maintenance asset Our categories. 47 asset against NTS the up make that assets the We manage maintenance Asset 2.5.1 health Asset Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
– Functional checks. Above Ground Installations (AGIs) Valves and usage-based inspections. functional checks, scheduled inspections, Compressors – Time-based visual inspection. Above Ground Installations (AGIs) testing.and performance Valves and usage-based inspections. functional checks, scheduled inspections, Compressors failure-findingfunctional checks. Electrical testing.performance intelligent condition monitoring or Instrumentation Pipelines – Criticality-based interval inspection – Criticality-based intervals. – Risk-based inspection. – Scheduled inspections and – Condition monitoring, – Condition monitoring, – Criticality-based,
represents the impact of that loss. that of impact the represents the likelihood of loss of function, while criticality represents 2.19). asset the of (Figure health The our regulatory using reporting a risk matrix This prioritisation process is represented in to the resolution of the issues. given is priority what consider We carefully through our network development process. handled are and to resolve complex more are others while teams maintenance by the resolved be can identified issues the of Some observations. or indicators performance through identified or maintenance through identified whether issues health asset to collate place in processes We have
60 Chapter two 61 2020/21 Very High High Medium Low 2019/20 RP1 RP1 RP1 RP1 AH5 C1 C2 C3 C4 2018/19 RP1 RP1 RP2 RP2 AH4 Criticality 2017/18 RP2 RP2 RP2 RP2 AH3 with actual asset health information collected collected information health asset actual with processes. management asset our through we have invested millionDuring £75 on 2015/16 improvements the to health of over 2,000 NTS assets. Within the NOM methodology this is changes. health asset 400 over with associated 2016/17 RP3 RP3 RP3 RP3 AH2 2015/16 RP4 RP4 RP4 RP4 AH1 2014/15 C1 C2 C3 C4 2013/14 Replacement Priority Matrix Replacement Priority
New or as new serviceable condition or Good monitoring or assessment requires Deterioration, consideration requires intervention deterioration, Material required intervention serviceable of life, End 2012/13 0
50 AH1 AH4 AH2 AH3 AH5
Asset Health Scores 100 200 150 300 250 350 Number of assets (example) assets of Number Figure 2.20 condition decline over timeAsset ageing model – showing an example asset We currentlyWe use models predict to how the over change will categories asset of health with assets portfolio of a Across lifetime. their different installation dates, we are able to forecast the future investment workload for Figure in illustrated as assets, of replacement supplement We 2.20. the forecast workload Figure 2.19 Asset replacement priority matrixAsset replacement priority 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Volume ofrecorded assethealthissues Figure 2.21 register our into collected been have that issues illustrates the increase in volume of asset health 2.21)(Figure below figure The required. be will anticipate we that investment health scaleable for the higher volumes of asset to be expected is approach revised The health risk to an acceptable level. asset NTS the to manage required be will that investments additional identified have we this, asset management capabilities and, through our 2015/16 improving During been have we Year 8(2020/21). RIIO in concluding and Year 4(2016/17) RIIO in starting works with first, addressed be should assets which identified have campaign five-year this of stages planning The years. five next the within which will be addressed by the campaign a catalogue of known asset condition issues building been have we year past the Over campaign health asset The 2.5.2 Asset health health Asset o o o t t Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
maximise the formaximise opportunity cost saving. to type by work investment bundles now elements of geographic coordination but retains approach campaign revised Our disruption to gas consumers. minimising and spend efficient account into taking risk, health asset the to manage required investments the of all to complete approach appropriate most the examined We have Campaign delivery assess the options. to critically used be may NDP our issue asset the to resolve considered being are options NDP, our of multiple however, where outside resolved be can issues asset Minor collation process. through more rigorous application of our
62 Chapter two 63
We expect each of the asset health deliveries health asset the of each expect We to 2.21) Figure (see campaign the throughout Dependingfollow our NDP. on the asset type individually assessed be may it location and collectively. or challenges campaign health Asset health asset to approach section network The works can result in system access challenges, as some assets will need be to taken offline completeto the required work. In order to manageto this temporary impact on our network, the programme of works will be will and disruption minimise designed to not affect our ability provide to a safe and network. reliable
Asset health and NDP By using our NDP resolve to an asset health issue we are able reach to the most efficient and effective solution. start We with a establish to workshop engagement stakeholder a range of options which could address the asset need. then We explore the advantages and disadvantages of the options and align Matrix Prioritisation Life Whole the to them (WLP) (Appendix This process 1). narrows down the range of options for more detailed further explained is WLP The assessment. in Chapter 3. Chapter in The Establish Portfolio stage of the NDP, as described in Chapter explores 5, the asset investmentoptions we consider to looking When issues. health asset resolve at asset investment options we not only look at the impact on NTS capability and operation, we also look at the impact on other projects to as such obligations governance and the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter two Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 64
Chapter one 65 66
three Chapter Chapter 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas System capability Chapter three System capability System on what we’re doing and how we’re doing it. we’re how doing and we’re what doing on feedback your to get you with to engage keen We (TO). are Owner Transmission and (SO) Operator System as them to address doing we’re what discuss We also NTS. the operate challenges which impact the way we plan and future and current on you We update requirements. which we NTS capability to use establish Development of the Network (NDP), stage Process Case (IED). Directive Emissions explores chapter This the Need also the of impact and the Industrial exit and capacity for entry TransmissionNational (NTS). System Information isprovided of the system outlinescapability the current section This Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 capability requirements. We useourNDP toassesssystem Key insights and improve ourinvestmentapproach. challenge howwedevelopournetwork – particularlytheIEDcontinuesto The impactoflegislativechange future NTSprojects. future connectionswhichmayleadto new NTSprojects, weare stilldiscussing before EMRhasnotresulted inany Although theinitialdeveloperactivity power stationswithsomenewbuild. resulted incapacitycontractsforexisting Reform (EMR)auctionshasmainly The first round ofElectricityMarket
Operator activities. Operator System our on information further provide which keypublications other and you, impact changes to our internal processes that may keyprojects, We summarise NTS. the on identify connection and capacity opportunities to you to help basis annual an on information planning cycle. We use GTYS GTYS region, are increasing. requests, particularlyintheSouthWest capacity requests are fallingbuttheflex Overall distributionnetwork(DN)flat publications more relevant toyourneeds. aim tomakeourGTYSandother different geographicalareas andwe about leadtimesandcapacityacross We continueto provide information is published at the end of the annual annual the of end the at published is to provide provide to
66 Chapter three 67
customer entry and exit capacity processes IED. the by triggered requirements capability Included within this chapter are: capability allows system our Understanding us determine to where rules, tools or asset solutions need be to found meet to our discuss will 4 Chapter requirements. customer where, as System Operator, we can better use rules and tools make to more efficient use of the system. Chapter 5 will discuss developed. are solutions asset the how , changes in legislation legislation in changes , System capability and the development of the NTS is managed through the Network we which (NDP) Process Development Chapter on, Following 1. Chapter in introduced 2 explored some of the triggers for this process changing requirements, customer including: Future our in described as conditions market Energy Scenarios (FES) requirements. health asset and IED the as such This chapter describes what happens once we receive a ‘trigger’ and we enter the Need Case Thisstage is of the where NDP. we analyse the capability requirements. NTS’s 3.1 Introduction 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Introduction Chapter three NDP –Defining Case theNeed balancing the system. of risks the minimising and cost the by reducing financialbenefits tothe industry and consumers to deliver designed are incentives SO Gas Britain. Great in NTS the for (SO) Operator System of role the undertakes Grid National required. longer no are that i.e. assets assets stranded of chance the reduce and investments longer-term efficient most the to make us allows This enhance? we do What replace? we do What repair? we do What We ask ourselves the following questions: incorporate the network future requirements. and equipment redundant to remove site the investment we would also consider rationalising requirements. When assessing the health immediate asset health investment with asite be could this of example An option. efficient most the deliver and opportunities all consider we to ensure us allows This drivers. secondary driver (the ‘trigger’) and consider any potential or problem the of cause the We articulate credible method of addressing that risk. NTS, which allows us to determine the most to the risk of level the We assess achange. of through which we understand the implications process the is Case’ ‘Need the Defining –definingNDP Case Need the 3.2 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
detailed options can be assessed. envelope under which the development of cost a provide to options the We filter industry. the from support and need, the to meet ability multiple categories such as time to deliver, against options 7. the ranks This Appendix in a ‘Whole Life Prioritisation Scorecard’ as shown against assets, or tools rules, be could these We then assess other high-level options; met. are requirements licence and safety to ensure basis alike-for-like on investment minimum the or investment no mean may This take. could we action minimum the is This option. Nothing’ ‘Do the at look We initially future. the in and now both need, SO the present and options different of risk in change the to articulate us allows NDP Our considering asset and non-asset solutions. when SO the of need the on focus therefore We money. for value good to demonstrate need we and (CAPEX) Expenditure Capital as well as (TOTEX) Total Expenditure about to think incentivised are we RIIO, Under
68 Chapter three 69
significant with more works, reinforcement including new pipelines and compression >36 months The following section provides shippers, shippers, provides section following The and (DNOs) Operators Network Distribution time lead the about information with developers for providing NTS entry and exit capacity. If unsold NTS exit (flat) capacity is available at existingan exit point then it can be accessed through the winter. following the for process application July The obligated capacity level, less any already sold, is the amount of capacity that we make auction and application the through available processes. can We increase capacity above capability system when levels obligated the funded via and substitution through allows, reinforcement works. solutions will be investigated. Works on Works investigated. be will solutions our existing sites, such as modification of installations above-ground and compressors (AGIs) may not require planning permission, so may have shorter lead times. Significant Development a pipelines require new Consent Order (DCO), as a consequence of The Planning Act (2008).This can result in capacity lead times 96 to months. of 72 stations compressor new of Construction may also require DCOs if a new high-voltage to subject and, needed is connection electricity similar require may requirements, local planning projects. pipeline to timescales
1
.) 2 with simple medium- term works or capacity substitution 36 months
without investment, for example by a contractual solution <36 months If capacity can be made available: http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Developing-our-network/Gas-Transportation-Transmission-Planning-Code/ http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Developing-our-network/Gas-Transportation-Transmission-Planning-Code/ http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/gas-capacity-methodologies/ 1 2 If we identify reinforcement works or increased substituting investigate we risk, operational substitution Capacity capacity. unsold make to obligation our moving involves point system one from available capacity another.to This is intended avoid to the assets. new of unnecessary construction available is substitution on information (Further (TPC) Code Planning Transmission the in Understanding our customers’ gas demand gas customers’ our Understanding NTS the across requirements capacity) (exit allowsus plan to and operate our system efficiently and effectively. When we receive an exit capacity request we analyse our current system assess to what impact an increase in demand has on the current system capability. This allows us identify to and plan for any from arise may which constraints geographical a capacity in demand exit customer increasing constraints Where NTS. the of area particular encountered, are capability system current to we use the NDP identify to options meet to our customers’ needs in the most cost-effective and efficient way. 3.3 capacityCustomer – exit 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas If substitution is not possible, we will consider and triggered been has Case Need a whether hence reinforcement works and contractual and via the methodology statements methodology the via and Figure 3.1 Capacity leadtimes Customer capacityCustomer – exit Chapter three Customer capacity – exit – Customer capacity NTS exitcapacitymap Figure 3.2 guaranteed. not is it azone, within from substituted be will capacity that likely very is it while and, rules to the substitution methodology statement All our substitution analysis is carried out GTYS the for created were and information for purely are zones These a 1to 1basis. substitution within a zone will be close to that likely is It project. reinforcement similar through substitution within the zone or by a met be to either likely is request capacity or and/ connection new any zones, these and multi-junctions (see Figure 3.2). Within zones based on key compressor stations, into NTS the divides map capacity exit NTS map NTS exit capacity 3.3.1 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
Gl 1 as ! go w 2. Ed Ca 1 in ! 2 rd bu ! if f rg h Ma nc 10 4 ! he st Birmin Ne ! er wc Le 5 ! ! ed as gh 3 tl s am e 6 8 Lo nd ! on 7 9
.
and capacity. and connections NTS in interest on have may EMR zones. This information recognises the impact interacting and azone within customers all from requested capacity of quantity the on depend actual capacity lead times and availability will sensitivity. This information is an indication and of substitution in each zone, including areas of the potential capacity lead times and likelihood We have provided explaining a commentary — — — Legend
Exit Capacity Area Capacity Exit Area –Sensitive Pipeline Gas Gas Pipeline 70 Chapter three 71
GTYS +4% +4% 0% +1% 0% +7% 0% +1% +4% +4% +1% % change from 2015 19% 35% 63% 38% 8% 48% 23% 34% 43% 32% 16% Unsold % of unsold capacity 138 392 199 595 48 134 29 124 227 475 72 (GWh/d) . 718 1,110 315 1,570 569 281 126 368 526 1,504 461 Obligated (GWh/d)
Scotland & the North North West & West Midlands (North) North Wales & Cheshire & Wales North North East, Yorkshire & Lincolnshire & South Wales & West Midlands Midlands West & Wales South (South) Central & East Midlands East & Central Peterborough to Aylesbury Norfolk Southern London, Suffolk & the the & Suffolk London, East South South West South Region
1 2 2.1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Region Region Number Table 3.1 Table Quantities of unsold NTS exit (flat) capacity Table 3.1 includes 3.1 theTable quantities of unsold NTS exit (flat) capacity in eachzone that could be used make to capacity available at other sites table The substitution. capacity exit through also shows how unsold capacity has changed since the publication GTYS of the 2015 3.3.2 capacity (flat) exit NTS (unsold) Available 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – exit – Customer capacity Region 1–ScotlandandtheNorth Figure 3.3 the North 1–Scotland and Region Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 This region is sensitive to St Fergus flows. flows. Fergus to St sensitive is region This SC1, 2, 3, 4, NO1, 2 NTS/DN exit zones: Auckland Town Bishop Long of and North NTS Location:
Glas Gl en In 1 ● vern go mavi ●
w ess ● s Ba th ● ga te
Ed in bu ● 2 Longt Ki rg rriem h ● ● ow uir n 3 Ab er ● deen St F Bi Newc er ● s Mi gus hop dd ● le astl Auck ● sb ro e u la g nd h ● Saltwick) due to smaller diameter pipelines. to 10 Glenmavis (feeder area sensitive the in timescales. Capacity may be more limited of without capacity requiring Planning Act quantities significant to provide delivered be can capability, flow reverse including modifications, flow compressor but area, the a small quantity of substitutable capacity in capacity will be constrained. There is only exit reduce, flows Fergus St As available. be will capacity exit mean flows Fergus St High — — — Legend
Key Sites Key Gas Pipeline Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area –Sensitive Pipeline Gas Exit Capacity Area Capacity Exit 72 Chapter three 73 Exit Capacity Area Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area Gas Pipeline Gas Key Sites
Legend — — — The amount of unsold capacity in the region indicates that capacity could be made available capacity A substitution. capacity exit by request in zone 2 is likely be to met through 2.1, zone including 2, zone from substitution and then from the downstream zones, in this case zone Capacity 5. is likely be to available on the main feeder sections between Carnforth Act non-Planning Potential Alrewas. and but capacity, release could reinforcements then significant pipeline reinforcement would region particularly sensitive the in required, be (North Blackrod Samlesbury and around Manchester). Greater and Lancashire ● ● s
e ● on ds wa am astl ● ngt re i 5 Lee Al ● ngh rm ● er Wo Newc rmi h st ey Bi rt t
3 ● he udl wo 4 lle od A nc El ● kr ● r Ke ac Ma n he Bl Samlesbury ● et ow ● N ● eston ● Pr Longt ol ● po ● ver Li 2 1
2.
NTS Location: NTS South of Longtown, north of Alrewas and east of Elworth zones: exit NTS/DN NW1, WM1 NW1, supply national to sensitive highly is region The patterns and use of storage; this area was north the from gas with supplied historically but increasingly receives gas from the south and from the east across the Pennines. Figure 3.4 Region 2 – North West and West Midlands (North) Midlands Region – North 2 and West West Midlands (North) and West Region 2 – North West 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – exit – Customer capacity Region 2.1–NorthWales andCheshire Figure 3.5 2.1Region Wales Cheshire and –North Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 facilities. storage of number a significant limited local supplies (Burton Point) but has with system the of extremity an is This WA1 NW2, NTS/DN exit zones: 4) (feeder Audley and Elworth of West NTS Location:
2.
1 2 Li ver ● po ● ol Longt Pr ● eston ● N ● ow et ● Samlesbury Bl he n Ma ac r Ke ● kr ● El nc A od lle 4 wo udl he ● 3 t rt Bi ey st h
rmi Newc Wo er ● rm ngh ● Al Lee 5 i re ngt ● astl am wa ds on ●
e s ● ● long (Planning Act) timescales. reinforcement would be required, resulting in pipeline significant but capacity, additional of reinforcements could release small amounts be booked. Potential non-Planning Act connect where offtakes the capacity could direct from is this but substitution, capacity capacity could be made available via exit region indicates a good probability that the within capacity unsold of quantity The — — — Legend
Key Sites Key Gas Pipeline Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area –Sensitive Pipeline Gas Exit Capacity Area Capacity Exit 74 Chapter three 75
Exit Capacity Area Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area Gas Pipeline Gas Key Sites
Legend — — — The amount of unsold capacity in the region indicates that capacity could be made available Further substitution. capacity exit through needing without available be should capacity north-east stable assuming reinforcement, supplies; this however, may be limited on (shown Brigg including spurs, diameter smaller as a sensitive pipe). including reinforcements, Act Non-Planning compressor modifications, could be carried available. capacity additional make to out W E e h n dg ec ri sb 7 ngto Wi Camb ! !( Easi !( on
on tt gh Ha ou !( Huntingt ! or !( rb te n Pe to mp ha rt 6 No er ! ov r m ch nd la ha ! ugh hur ceste ! ck ng C
tti Lei
!( ! Au lesbro No d 3 dd hop ! s e Mi s effiel tl ds Bi ! Sh wa !( as !
re Lee
Al !( am 5 Newc gh ! in er rm
st h Bi ey rt ! he udl 4 wo et A nc ll El !( !( Ke
Ma er n th wn to ! Ne es !( Pr ongto L !( NTS Location: NTS South of Bishop Auckland, north of east and Wisbech and Peterborough of Netherof Kellet zones: exit NTS/DN NE1, 2, 3, EM1, 2 EM1, 3, 2, NE1, There are a number of power stations in this region and this may impact on future ramp rate agreements (the rate at which flows can increase at an offtake, as set out in the Network Exit Agreement – NExA). Figure 3.6 Region 3 – North East, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire Region – North 3 East, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire Yorkshire Region 3 – North East, 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – exit – Customer capacity Region 4–SouthWales andWest MidlandsSouth Figure 3.7 4–South WalesRegion West and Midlands South Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 may limit capacity. which Midlands West the in pressures reduced in result flows Haven Milford High capacity. limit result in reduced South Wales pressures, which flows Haven Milford Low flows. Haven Milford availability is highly capacity sensitiveExit to SW1,WM3, WA2 NTS/DN exit zones: West of Churchover NTS Location: He rbrands !( to n
Pl ymou ! th Sw anse !
a Ex et ! 2. er
1 Cardi 2 ! Liv ff erpoo ! Il ch Pr l es !( es Br ! te to is ! r n to El Ma Audl l wo 4 !( !( nc rt ey h he ! 10 Bi Wo Bo st rm rmington ur er in ne !( Al ! Sw ! gh mo re 5 in !( ! am wa ut Lo do h So s n ck Sh ! 3 !( ut Chur er effiel No ha ! le ! Leic ttin mp y ch Oxfo d to gh !( este ov ! n am rd ! er ! r in red) due to the different pressure ratings. pressure different to the due red) in (shown area asensitive is Cilfrew of south area the since required, be would reinforcement pipeline significant but capacity, of quantities Act reinforcements could release small could be substituted. Potential non-Planning capacity of quantity alimited indicates region the within capacity unsold of quantity The — — — Legend
Key Sites Key Gas Pipeline Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area –Sensitive Pipeline Gas Exit Capacity Area Capacity Exit 76 Chapter three 77 Exit Capacity Area Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area Gas Pipeline Gas Key Sites
Legend — — — The unsold capacity here indicates a limited non-Planning Potential substitution. for scope out carried be could reinforcements Act releaseto a small amount of capacity, but significant pipeline reinforcement would be area sensitive particular the in for required, Austrey Shustoke to (shown in red). e n W dg E ge ri ngto h id ! ! 7 si ! ec mb Ea sb Ca ! Cambr Wi on ll ! we on it tt Lond gh Wh Ha ou ! !( ! or Huntington n ! rb d ! te or ! Luto df Pe Be es y ur n ! 6 Keyn sb to 8 le on mp lt ! g Ay
Mi ha er ! ! rt ov No m Readin ch ! ha ester ! hur
ng rd
C Leic ! tti ! No Oxfo 3 d ! effiel s
s
Sh ! wa Leed n re ngton i do Al ! ! in rm 5 am 10 Sw Wo gh
! ! in rm er Bi 4 st ey h ! he rt udl A ! Elwo ! Manc NTS Location: NTS South of Alrewas, north of Churchover, west of Wisbech of west Churchover, zones: exit NTS/DN EM3, 4, WM2EM3, 4, Figure 3.8 Region – Central 5 and East Midlands East Midlands Region 5 – Central and 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – exit – Customer capacity Region 6–PeterboroughtoAylesbury Figure 3.9 6–PeterboroughRegion to Aylesbury Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 region 10, the South West. 10, South the region demand increases downstream in availability isCapacity sensitive to 7 EA6, NTS/DN exit zones: Huntingdon of west Wisbech, and Peterborough of south Aylesbury, of North NTS Location: Oxford ! ! C hur Leic c 5 hov ester ! er
No ! rt Ay ha ! mp le Mi sbury to lt 8 on n
Keyne ! 6 s
Be df ! or Luto d Pe ! te n ! rb Hunt or ! ou ! ingto Wh gh it we
n 9
ll 7 Cambr Wi Ca
sb ! ! mb ec id ! h ge ri E dg W e could be carried out to release capacity. to release out carried be could Potential non-Planning Act reinforcements the southern region downstream of Aylesbury. there may be scope for substitution from but region, the in offtake single the from limited scope for exit capacity substitution indicates capacity unsold of quantity The — — — Legend
Key Sites Key Gas Pipeline Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area –Sensitive Pipeline Gas Exit Capacity Area Capacity Exit
78 Chapter three
79 Exit Capacity Area Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area Gas Pipeline Gas Key Sites
Legend — — — The region is sensitive South to East demand; if demand increases in the South East, capacity East, South the in increases demand if constrained. more become may good a indicates here capacity Unsold probability that capacity could be substituted. available made be could capacity Additional stable assuming works, reinforcement without supplies. Bacton on ct Ba !( h ic ! h rw ic ss ! No Di sw !( Ip
d ! 7 9 elmsfor W
Ch
E dge ri h ec mb e sb Ca dg !( Wi
ri ! ! Camb 3 ll we on gh it tt ou Wh Ha or !( !( untington ! H on terb !( ! Lut Pe NTS Location: NTS Wisbech of east zones: exit NTS/DN North of Diss and Cambridge, Cambridge, and Diss North of EA1, 2, 3 2, EA1, Figure 3.10 Region 7 – Norfolk Region – Norfolk 7 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – exit – Customer capacity Region 8–Southern Figure 3.11 8–Southern Region Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 SO1, 2 SO1, NTS/DN exit zones: Lockerley of north and Aylesbury of South NTS Location: Bo ! Wo ! ur Sw ne rm 10 mo in i ! ngton do ut n h ! So Lo ut ck ha er ! mp le
to y n Oxfo ! rd
Po
rtsm Readin ! ou ! th ! Ay g Mi
le lt
on sbur 6 Keyne ! y 8 s Be df ! Luto or ! d n ! Wh it Lond we Br 9 ig ll ! ! ht on on Ca ! ! mb ri dg e release a small amount of capacity. of amount asmall release could modifications) station (compressor Potential non-Planning Act reinforcements made available via exit capacity substitution. be could capacity that chance a good indicates capacity unsold of amount The may become more constrained. capacity increases, demand if West; South the in to demand sensitive is region The — — — Legend
Key Sites Key Gas Pipeline Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area –Sensitive Pipeline Gas Exit Capacity Area Capacity Exit
80 Chapter three 81
Exit Capacity Area Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area Gas Pipeline Gas Key Sites
Legend — — — future ramp rate agreements (the rate at which flows can increase at an offtake, as set out in the Network Exit Agreement – NExA). chance good a indicates capacity Unsold that capacity could be made available via exit capacity substitution, however, exchange exchange however, substitution, capacity exit rates may vary between locations. Potential be could reinforcements Act non-Planning of quantities small release to out carried pipeline significant but capacity additional needed. be would reinforcement !( ne h ! ic h ! ss rw ic ! Di Folkesto No sw ! Ip n ai Gr
of le Is ! rd ! W 7
elmsfo E
dge h ri Ch ec mb e sb Ca dg Wi ! ri ! !
amb C on on ll ht ! ! 9 we it Brig Lond
gh Wh ou untington ! ! or H n ! rb d ! te or ! Luto 8 Pe Bedf es 6 Keyn ! on lt ! Mi NTS Location: NTS South Diss, Cambridge, east of Whitwell zones: exit NTS/DN EA4, 5, NT1, 2, 3, SE1, 2 SE1, 3, 2, EA4, NT1, 5, The region is sensitive Isle to of Grain flows, with low flows limiting capacity. Capacity may be more limited in the sensitive areas at the extremities of the system shown in red (Tatsfield, Peters Green). The significant number of power stations in the region may impact on Figure 3.12 and the South East Region 9 – London, Suffolk Region 9 – London, SuffolkRegion – London, 9 and East South the 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – exit – Customer capacity Region 10–SouthWest Figure 3.13 10Region –South West Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Exchange rates may be high due to small to small due high be may rates Exchange available through exit capacity substitution. made being capacity for scope limited indicates region this in capacity unsold of quantity The SW2, 3 NTS/DN exit zones: South of Wormington and Lockerley NTS Location: Pl ym ! ou th Sw anse ! a
Ex et ! er
Cardi ! ff
! Il Br ch is ! es to l te r 10 Bi 4 Bour rm in ne ! ! gh Sw ! Wo mo 5 in am rm ut ! do h i ngton n So ! ut Lo ha ck ! mp Chur er Oxfo Po to le ! n rtsm ! y Read c rd 8 hov ou in ! er th g ! ! sensitivity to low Milford Haven flows. Haven Milford to low sensitivity to small diameter pipelines. There is some Pucklechurch on the feeder 14 spur) due of (west red in shown area sensitive the in long (Planning Act) timescales, particularly reinforcement would be needed, resulting in pipeline significant but capacity, additional of reinforcements could release small quantities diameter pipelines. Potential non-Planning Act — — — Legend
Key Sites Key Gas Pipeline Gas Pipeline – Sensitive Area –Sensitive Pipeline Gas Exit Capacity Area Capacity Exit 82 Chapter three 83
Offtake Tonna (Baglan Bay) (Baglan Tonna Dynevor Max Refill Station Power Pembroke Upper Neeston (Milford Haven Refinery) Station) Power (Corby Caldecott Drakelow Power Station Peterborough (Peterborough (Peterborough Peterborough Power Station) Bacton (Baird) Deborah Storage (Bacton) Lynn) (Kings Bow Saddle St. Neots (Little Barford) Avonmouth Max Refill Industrial Centrax Langage Power Station Marchwood Power Station Power (Seabank Seabank II) phase Station Abson (Seabank Power Station phase I) Terra Nitrogen (aka ICI, Severnside) Terra Didcot Barton Stacey Max Refill Grove) (Humbly (Horndon) Barking Coryton 2 (Thames Haven) Power Station Stanford Le Hope (Coryton) Hope Le Stanford Middle Stoke (Damhead Creek, Station) Kingsnorth Power aka Epping Green (Enfield Energy, Brimsdown) aka Station Power Grain Bacton (Great Yarmouth) Medway (aka Isle of Grain Power Station, NOT Grain Power) Ryehouse Tilbury Power Station 4 5 7 8 9 8.1 Region
Offtake Garton Max Refill (Aldbrough) facility) (test Auckland Bishop Teesside aka (BASF, BASF Teesside) Hatfield Moor Max Refill Hydrogen Teesside Saltend BPHP (BP Saltend HP) Blyborough (Brigg) Blyborough (Teesside) Field Brine Power Station (Cottam) Blyborough Billingham Enron Glass) (Guardian Goole Hatfield Power Station Hornsea Max Refill Billingham) (Terra ICI Billingham (Humber Curtis Thornton Immingham) aka Refinery, Blackstart) (Keadby Eastoft Eastoft (Keadby) Teesside Petroleum, Phillips Rough Max Refill Station) Power (Saltend Rosehill Saltfleetby Storage (Theddlethorpe) Holland) (South 2 Spalding Power Station (Spalding) Marsh Wragg Stallingborough Staythorpe Station Power Bridge Sutton (Killingholme) Curtis Thornton West Burton Power Station Zeneca (ICI Avecia, aka 'Zenica') 3 Region
Offtake Blackness (BP Grangemouth) (BP Blackness Station Power Cockenzie Glenmavis Max Refill (Longannet) Gowkhall (Peterhead) Fergus St. St. Fergus (Shell Blackstart) Barrow (Bains) Barrow Barrow (Black Start) Barrow (Gateway) Carrington (Partington) Power Station Caythorpe Ferny Knoll (AM Paper) Holford Partington Max Refill Station Power Roosecote (Barrow) Sellafield Power Station Harwarden (Shotton, aka Shotton Paper) (Cheshire) Stublach Station Power Willington Power, (Winnington Pickmere Mond) Brunner aka StationWyre Power Shotwick (Bridgewater Paper) (Bridgewater Shotwick Burton Point (Connah’s Quay) (Connah’s Point Burton Deeside Hole House Max Refill Kelner, (Castner Point Weston aka ICI Runcorn) Weston Point (Rocksavage) Shellstar (aka Kemira, not CHP) Kemira 1 2 2.1 Region Table 3.2 Table Direct Connect offtakes by region Direct Connect offtakes The following table shows which region the the region which shows table following The current Directly Connected (DC) offtakes fall within. There are no such offtakes in region 6. 3.3.3 Directly points Connected exit 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – exit – Customer capacity NTS/DN offtakes fall within. fall offtakes NTS/DN distribution network exit zones the current 3.14 Figure which Table show 3.3 and exitNTS/DN zones 3.3.4 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 NTS exitzones Figure 3.14
84 Chapter three 85 Offtake Ross Rugby Spa Leamington Stratford-Upon-Avon Shustoke Austrey Compressor Alrewas Gilwern Aspley Kenn (South) Kenn Aylesbeare Dyffryn Clydach Dynevor Arms Tee Avonmouth (LNG) Avonmouth Audley Milwich Winkfield (SO) Winkfield Fiddington Evesham Ross Drew Littleton Grey Easton Cirencester Ilchester Pucklechurch Mappowder ‘A’ Braishfield Winkfield (SE) Winkfield North Stoke (Ipsden) Drum Tatsfield Shorne Farningham Isle of Grain (LNG Exit SE1 SE2 SC4 SO1 SO2 SW1 SW2 SW3 WA2 WM1 WM2 WM3 Zone Offtake Hulme Soutra Howleugh Nether Lockerbie Pitcairngreen BV Aberdeen Broxburn Armadale Audley Eccleston Warburton Weston Point ChapelHolmes Peters Green Peters Balgray Kinknockie Careston Horndon ‘A’ Horndon Keld Tow Law Winkfield (NIL) Samlesbury Lupton Mickle Trafford Malpas Wetheral Blackrod Elton Humbleton Burdon Little Cowpen Bewley Cowpen Guyzance Coldstream Corbridge Thrintoft Saltwick NT1 NT2 NT3 SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4 NO1 NO2 NW1 NW2 Exit Zone
Ganstead Hornsea Easington Pickering Paull Pannal Asselby Bank Burley Caldecott Market Harborough Market Blaby LangtonTur Alrewas Compressor Alrewas Rawcliffe Baldersby Towton Hardwick Royston Royston Whitwell Thornton Curtis ‘A’ Walesby Bridge Sutton Willoughby Silk Gosberton Blyborough Kirkstead Matching Green Matching Yelverton Roudham Heath Roudham Bacton Terminal Bacton West Winch West Eye Terminal Bacton Brisley Bacton Terminal Bacton Brisley Terminal Bacton Wilbraham Great Offtake EA1 EA5 EA4 EA3 NE1 EA2 NE2 EM1 EM4 EM2 EM3 Exit Zone Table 3.3 Table NTS/DN exit zones 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – entry – Customer capacity most cost-effective and efficient way. efficient and cost-effective most the in needs customers’ our to meet options to identify NDP the use we encountered, are Where constraints to current system capability NTS. the of area aparticular in capacity entry customer in increase an from arise may which constraints geographical any for plan and to identify us allows This capability. current the on has system our of part aparticular at supply in increase an impact what to assess system current our analyse we request capacity entry an receive we When effectively. and efficiently system our operate and to plan us allow to again NTS to the requirements capacity) understand our customers’ gas supply (entry to us for important is it capacity, exit with As entry – Customer capacity 3.4 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 and interacting ASEPs. ASEP an at customers all from requested capacity of amount the on depend will is just an indication; actual capacity availability information This requirements. specific discuss to team service customer our to approach you encourage we and patterns flow to network changes significant in result can points entry time associated with new entry points. New lead likely the understand you to help We aim times may be longer. available, including at new entry points, the lead not is capacity unsold If processes. auction capacity entry annual and monthly daily, the via accessed be can (ASEP) Point Entry System Aggregate existing an at available capacity shippers and developers. Unsold NTS entry for aguide as capacity entry NTS providing capacity availability and the lead time for This section contains information about
86 Chapter three
87
To help our understanding of entry capability, entry capability, of understanding our help To we use the concept of entry zones which These 3.15). (Figure ASEPs of groups contain zones are discussed in further detail in 3.4.2. The entry pointsin each zone often make use to infrastructure of sections common of transport gas, and therefore have a high degree of interaction. There are also interactions mean which zones different in supplies between that interactions between supplies must also be capability entry undertaking when determined between interactions the are Examples analysis. and Easington or Bacton, and Haven Milford infrastructure shared where points entry Bacton assists capacity provision at both ASEPs by moving gas east–west or west–east across the country.
Chapter section 2, discussed 2.2 the that mix supply future uncertainties the in 3.4.1 Entry planning scenarios arise from both existing supplies and potential supplies, available The developments. new in aggregate, are greater than peak demand. uncertainty supply The further is increased requirements Licence Transporter Gas the by for us make to obligated capacity available shippersto up and to including the gas flow Thisday. creates a situation where we are the as auctions long-term take to unable definitive signal from shippers about their intentions flow to gas.We are continuing developto our processes better to manage the risks that arise from such uncertainties as part of our System Flexibility work. 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – entry – Customer capacity storage entry flows to meet winter demand. winter meet to flows entry storage medium-range by high balanced gas imported in example, a sensitivity scenario with a reduction commercially driven sensitivities several investigate also may we scenarios, In addition to the traditional geographical to north. south from moved to be gas requiring south, the in flows entry in increase corresponding a with Fergus, St into flows entry by reduced created flows north to south High export. IUK including UK, the of east south and east the in demands to support country the across east travelling west the in flows entry increased generated flows by east to west High process include: Key we scenarios examine through the planning Zonal groupingofinteractingsupplies Figure 3.15 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 SO UT Mi H lf NORTH WEST WEST ord Ha # ve
n Ba Burt rrow Po Fl int on ee Av # # Hole tw ! onmo ood Holf ' Fa Hous ! ! ! rm ut or St Stubla h Te d Fer e # es gus si ch Humb de # Ha M NORTHERN TRIANG ! ! tf ly oor ie Ca
Grov ld yt Th ! horpe ! e e ! ddlet Ho # Ea Al # Is rn dbrough s le horpe ington se of . For . For a #
Gr EA ai Ba n # SI ct on LE NGTON SO
UT H ARE EAST A optioneering through the planning process. solution, we would out further carry optimum the is assets in investment Where identified. is solutions of spectrum a broad that ensures This physical). and commercial a range of possible solutions (regulatory, investigate would we capability, current of outside are network the from requirements If this technique indicates that future network. the on flows changing considering explicitly scenarios, flow different between to switch system the of ability the for usincreasingly to necessary consider is it evolve, network the from requirements customer As balance. energy day’ of ‘end an overall with consistent flows gas state’ onscenarios an individual basis using ‘steady these considered have we Historically, Legend Storage Sites Constrained LNG Terminal
88 Chapter three 3 0 0 89 49 99 0.3 3.3 215 150 280 650 73.5 0.00 13.16 172.6 610.7 179.3 233.1 442.5 28.59 60.32 35.38 393.98 1,181.82 1,641.30
GWh/day 2023/2024 2023/2024 3 0 0 0 0 49 99 0.3 3.3 215 650
82.6 0.00 13.16 27.31 65.13 610.7 179.3 45.71 28.59 35.38 106.20 368.54 1,571.98 1,034.36 GWh/day 2020/2021 2020/2021 Unsold CapacityUnsold 3 0 0 0 0 49 99 0.3 3.3 215 650 82.6 0.00 13.16 27.31 179.3 185.6 29.37 28.59 35.38 581.87 243.67 106.20 860.53 1,220.09 GWh/day 2016/2017 possible across entry zones. entry across possible also be used make to capacity available at other ASEPs through entry capacity be also may Substitution substitution. 0 25 49 99 90 0.3 3.3 215 420 950 650 73.5 172.6 610.7 179.3 233.1 542.7 296.6 340.01 699.68 485.60 445.09 1,407.15 1,670.70 1,297.8 0 Obligated Obligated Capacity GWh/day Hatfield Moor(storage) Theddlethorpe Wytch Farm Hornsea Hatfield Moor(onshore) Bacton UKCS Isle of Grain Avonmouth Bacton Easington (incl. Rough) (incl. Easington Barton Stacey Arms Dynevor Milford Haven Burton Point Burton Caythorpe Cheshire Fleetwood Farm House Hole Partington Teesside Garton Glenmavis Fergus St Canonbie ASEP Barrow
South West South East South North West Easington Area Entry Zone Northern Triangle Table 3.4 Table by zone Quantities of entry capacity Table 3.4 indicates 3.4 Table the quantities of obligated and unsold NTS entry capacity at each ASEP within each entry zone. This unsold capacity (obligated less any previously sold or reserved) is available at each relevant ASEP and could 3.4.2 entry NTS (unsold) capacityAvailable 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Customer capacity – entry – Customer capacity that some capacity could be made available available made be could capacity some that indicates region this in capacity unsold The system. the of rest the into gas to move and the main west coast transportation route infrastructure common use ASEPs five These Hole House Farm, Partington. ASEPs: Burton Point, Cheshire, Fleetwood, West zone –North Entry country. the of south and midlands the in centres demand major to reach England of coast west or east the either down These supplies northern need to be transported Moffat). (and Teesside Fergus, St ASEPs: Barrow, Canonbie, Glenmavis, triangle zone Northern – Entry ASEP, each at capacity entry obligated and informationfurther about the level of booked provide A A5.2 to H 5figures Appendix A5.4. 5 table Appendix in found be can facilities storage on Stublach gas storage facilities. More information and Top Holford Hill Farm, the contains ASEP Cheshire the and facility, storage Grove Humbly the contains ASEP Stacey Barton the ASEP contains the Aldborough storage facility, Garton the clarity, For Licence. NTS the in defined as names ASEP the Table 3.4 contains Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
(Planning Act) timescales. long in resulting required, be then would reinforcement pipeline significant but capacity flow modifications, couldrelease additional reinforcements, including compressor reverse than one to one. Potential non-Planning Act greater be may rates exchange and capacity entry match necessarily not will capability via entry capacity substitution; however, entry quantitiesfurther of additional capacity. release could modifications, flow reverse Act reinforcements, including compressor capacity substitution. Potential non-Planning entry through available made be could capacity that likelihood high a indicates flows, forecast Fergus St reduced the with combined region, this in capacity unsold of amount The Fergus and Theddlethorpe. St at exists substitution for capacity significant available for substitution. Using this indicator, capacity the of indication abetter be may level capacity obligated the and data flow peak scenario the between gap the and change may for entry capacity substitution, future bookings considered be can capacity un-booked all While ASEPs. these for scenarios flow peak future of range the and utilisation maximum historic representing points data provide also figures The storage. purely are that those excluding
90 Chapter three 91
capacity be to made available via entry non-Planning Potential substitution. capacity compressor including reinforcements, Act reverse flow modifications, could release some additional capacity but significant significant but capacity additional some the network in terms of the ability transport to gas south north. to Potential non-Planning compressor including reinforcements, Act reverse flow modifications, could release significant but capacity, additional some required be then would reinforcement pipeline timescales. Act) (Planning long in resulting pipeline reinforcement would be needed, be would reinforcement pipeline timescales. Act) (Planning long in resulting storage facilities. Due the to short duration of that unlikely is it facilities, these deliverability of the capacity could be made available for entry equivalent for than other substitution capacity facilities. Significant pipeline reinforcement and to required be would compression additional long in capacity resulting incremental provide timescales. Act) (Planning entry suitability capacity for of indication on constraints to due is This substitution.
Entry East – South zone Entry West – South zone ASEPs: Caythorpe, Easington (incl. Rough), Rough), (incl. Easington Caythorpe, ASEPs: Garton, Hatfield Moor(onshore), Hornsea, Hatfield Moor(storage), Theddlethorpe. Entry area – Easington zone All these ASEPsuse common routes out of the Yorkshire area. The quantity of unsold capacity in this region additional for scope limited a indicates 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas ASEPs: Avonmouth, Barton Stacey, Dynevor Arms, Milford Haven, Wytch Farm. around analysis sensitivity enables zone This potential LNG supplies from Milford Haven. The quantity of unsold capacity in this zone is principally at the Avonmouth and Dynevor Arms ASEPs associated with the LNG ASEPs: Isle Bacton of Grain. UKCS, Bacton IP, away infrastructure common use ASEPs The from the Bacton area. While there is a high degree of interaction between the Bacton (UKCS & IP) and Isle of Grain ASEPs, the quantity of unsold capacity in this zone cannot be interpreted as an Chapter three Impact ofImpact legislative change Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Impact ofIEDonourcurrentcompressorfleet Figure 3.16 (Figure 3.16). fleet compressor current our impact (LCP), heavily Directive Plant Combustion Large the and (IPPC) Directive Control and of IED, the Integrated Pollution Prevention 2.4, elements two section in outlined we As Industrial Emissions Directive ofImpact legislative change 3.5 3 After seeking further clarification, one of the units at St Fergus was re-classified and so is not subject to LCP. Therefore, in this this in 17.LCP. than to Therefore, rather subject not to 16 is units so and reference see will you re-classified was document Fergus St at units the of one clarification, further seeking After
3 is compliant by 2023. by compliant is fleet compressor our to ensure changes legislative these to address doing are we the legislation before Chapter 5 covers what The following sections detail the impact of
92 Chapter three 93
Best Available Technique (BAT) for all options options all for (BAT) Technique Available Best going units non-compliant IED on considered forward. do We not anticipate any significant changes process the to BAT we currently follow options. compressor assessing our when emissions reduction projects, were agreed agreed were projects, reduction emissions UK the discussions with these during we 2016 During Regulators. Environmental Directive. we will undertake During 2016/17 an audit of this plant type and develop plans. mitigation have developed our compressor strategy, further details of which are given in Chapter 5.
3.5.3 references (BREF) Technique Best Available 3.5.2 directive (MCP) Plant Combustion Medium As defined in Chapter2, section 2.4 BREF has been adopted under IPPC and The IED. BREF for combustion plant is currently in draft form We and will is duebe be to finalised 2017. in the determining when account into BREF taking During 2015/16 furtherDuring discussions 2015/16 have 3.5.1 stakeholderIED engagement taken place with Ofgem and the Environmental for hours running 2016 The Regulators. the and Compressor Installations, of continuation and commencement As outlined in section the MCP Directive 2.4, will affect a further of the 26 NTS compressor units. pre-heat as such plants, combustion Other systems, are also captured as part of this 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter three Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 94 Chapter one
95 96
System operation four Chapter Chapter 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter four System operation we discuss this progression in more detail. in more we this progression discuss Development of our Network (NDP);stage Process Portfolio of the Establish part as developing, triggered are tools’ and the solutions, ‘rules non-asset weThe are efficiently. safely and operate, then our network operate, and investments These wenetwork. mean continue to can to plan to Operator the System make as capabilities of the most our how chapterThis describes we investing are in our Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Key insights we buildnewassets. the mostofourexistingnetworkbefore efficient investmentdecisionstomake Our challengeistomakethemost minimal restrictions. and contractualdrivers,youwant that meetyouroperational,commercial want toflowgasusingwithin-dayprofiles a safeandreliable network.We knowyou As theSystemOperatorwemustprovide
to optimiseourexistingnetwork. by continuouslyimproving ourapproach We are deferringinvestmentinassets and investinginoursystemstools. capabilities, byimproving ourprocesses analytical, decisionsupportandreporting We are enhancingourforecasting,
96 Chapter four 97
providing you with flexibilityto flow gas at the most efficient profile for you, even where this flexibilityexceeds contractual rights. As you would expect, we must make sure that this operational flexibility does not create unacceptable system risks or have a detrimental impact on our other customers. optimising, scheduling and managing access managing and scheduling optimising, construction and maintenance for NTS the to activities minimise to the impact on you developing methods (including analytical (including methods developing capabilities) quickly to identify, manage and the minimise issues to network any mitigate you on impact operating the NTS effectively and efficiently maximise our capability meeting its while to obligations commercial and statutory We mustWe manage gas quality (calorific value) at a zonal level ensure to consumers are mustWe optimise the use of infrastructure. NTS We mustWe take commercial actions in the event that system capability is lower than rights. contractual fairly billed for the gas they use. So our challenge is maximise to value from our capabilities our in investing by network existing as the SO. In this chapter we describe current and planned developments our to SO capabilities and explain how we make decisions between investing in our assets. new installing capabilities and You have told usYou that you value the ability flowto gas using within-day profiles to meet contractual and commercial operational, your needs, with minimal restrictions. want us You maximiseto our performance in this area. do this, we areTo focusing on:
publication. GTYS
We must minimise our environmental impact. environmental our minimise must We mustWe meet the pressures contractually customers. our with agreed mustWe provide you with information and mustWe make NTS entry and exit capacity obligations licence our with line in available to effectivelyto manage or mitigate a gas emergency. supply data that you need make to effective and decisions. efficient rights. contractual and We mustWe maintain the quality of gas meet to NTS the through transported the criteria defined within the Gas Safety to (GS(M)R) Regulations (Management) capabilities network maintain must We within safe limits. safe within comply with UK gas appliances. We mustWe plan and develop the NTS meet to Security Standards. System Pipeline mustWe maintain NTS pressures Facilitating efficient market operation: Environment: As the System Operator our (SO), primary supply from gas transport to is responsibility points offtakes, to providing a safe and reliable cannot strategies operational Where network. be used maintain to transportation of supply we need make to physical changes our to network. Chapter in outlined are changes These physical 5 (Asset development). In Chapter 4 we discuss how we operate our current network. The way we operate the NTS is affected by 4.1 Introduction a number of obligations, unchanged since the since unchanged obligations, of number a 2015 Safety and system resilience: 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Introduction Chapter four Operator capabilities?Operator What System are Key inputsrequiredforourSOcapabilities Figure 4.2 technology effective processes, business efficient of acombination requires capability SO each purpose, for fit are outputs To our sure make Examples ofsometheinputsandoutputsourSOcapability Figure 4.1 you. for value most the deliver combined, when that, outputs to produce able to be do to need we what describe capabilities SO Our capabilities? System Operator are What 4.2 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Long-to-medium- and demand term supply forecasts
Conditions Current Market Market Systems/ Tools appropriate time horizons) daily volumes, and within- and volumes, daily The capability to forecast forecast to capability The day variations in supply Demand Forecasting Short-Term Supply & & Supply Short-Term and demand (across Process Knowledge/ Skills people (Figure 4.2). knowledgeable and skilled and (systems/tools), Published Forecast Demand Assessments Operational Inputs to Risk 98 Chapter four 99
We doWe this through the use of our Whole Life in detailed as model scoring Prioritisation Process). Development (Network 7 Appendix This uses a qualitative approach comparing a including: criteria key against solutions of range flexibility, customer charges, future proofing, resilience, capability obligations, current and and barriers new to investment. use We this options available the rank to method scoring for the next stages of our processes. These can sometimes or solutions, non-asset or asset be a combination of the two. the At Establish discounted fully are options Portfolio no stage nor final choices made. These are the least regrets options used set to the bounds for development. options and further investigation of breaking the in result optioneering Should these bounds the projects will return earlier to stages of the process for reassessment. An asset solution may not always be the costs reducing by consumers industry and the the balancing of risks the minimising and system. therefore, We in our role as the SO, solutions. non-asset our consider where is terms, simple in solution, non-asset A we ‘sweat our assets’ assessing by what the maximum capability is of our existing network. may We solutions. contractual at look also We be willing accept to commercial risk rather than invest in a more expensive asset solution. most efficientto way meet a system capability requirement and deliver financial benefits to
of the triggers for this process and Chapter 3 described the Need Case stage of the NTS’s the calculate we where NDP We useWe our Network Development Process capability requirements; assess system to (NDP) this was introduced inHere Chapter we 1. discussed how we consider and improve the capability of the system and use the NDP to assess our capability as the SO. Following on, Chapter 2 explored some Deciding between System capability requirements. capability our and system our Understanding capability as the SO allows us determine to to need solutions asset or tools rules, where 4.3 Operator capabilities andOperator capabilities assets be found meet to our customer requirements. This chapter will discuss where, asthe we canSO, make better use of rules and tools make to more efficient use of the system. Chapter 5 (Asset development) will follow on from this discussing by how developed. are solutions asset the Under RIIO, we are incentivised think to about Expenditure Total (TOTEX) as well as Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and we need money. for value good demonstrate to thereforeWe focus on the need of the 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas bothSO, now and in the future, when meeting to solutions the considering our system capability requirements. system our capabilities and assets Deciding between System Operator Operator System between Deciding Chapter four capabilities and assets and capabilities Deciding between System Operator in this area. this in doing are we work of examples some give will we chapter this in on Later consumers. end for right are that decisions informed make can we together that and needs their understand we to ensure customers our with work We actively the associated risk increase. to accept is decision right the and time, this at pipeline the to build need not do we that demonstrated now has West South the in Risk analysis alongside changing demands facility. storage Gas) Natural (Liquefied LNG with the anticipated closure of the Avonmouth originally planned to replace capabilities lost to assess the pipeline investment, which was undertaken been recently has approach This Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
before we invest in asset solutions. horizons) time all (across making decision and improved forecasting, analysis, risk assessment (through network existing our from get we value the maximises This it. do we how and do we what to refine order in processes and systems current our reviewing constantly We are 100 Chapter four 101 Validate customer requirements against business rules constraint Take management/ balancing residual actions RealTime Data and Provision Monitoring (Telemetry) On-the-Day AssessmentRisk Deliver NTS Plan Access Execute Operational Strategy Situational Awareness Situational Operational Control Operational
make sure they have the right knowledge, skills and experience drive to efficiency and maximise our process and system performance deliver to a reliable network for our customers. detail more provide sections following The capabilities operational key our of each on processes, our improving are we how including and what investments we are making to develop our systems and tools.
Review Operational Performance Prepare NTS NTS Prepare Access Plan (Maintenance/ Construction) Define Operational Strategy
1 month – 1 Week Ahead Assessment Risk Improve all areas 1 – 10 Years1 – 10 Ahead Risk Assessment Review Operational Strategy Planning
Emergency Planning and Management Short-term Short-term demand & supply forecasting Long-to-medium- supply term & demand forecasting Supply & Demand Demand & Supply Forecasting In the following sections we focus on our operational capabilities. We use a use We capabilities. operational our combination of these capabilities deliver to plans and strategies operational daily our maketo sure we provide a safe and reliable network for you. Figure gives 4.3 anexample of how information flows between our operational capabilities; it does not represent our organisational structure. areWe committed developing to our people to Our SO operational processes in Figure 4.3 below. 4.3 Figure in Figure 4.3 Investing in our System our in Operator capabilities Investing Our SO capabilities can be grouped into summarised been have These categories. 4.4 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Operator capabilities Investing in our System our in Investing Chapter four Operator capabilities Operator Investing in our System Supply and demand forecasting demand Supply and 4.4.1 1 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 http://marketinformation.natgrid.co.uk/gas/frmPrevalingView.aspx Drivers for change it? is What supply/demand balance position. Price sensitive operation of fast cycle storage. spread. forward gas/coal and capacity Changes in UK installed gas generation Increased arbitrage through interconnectors. imports. supply of Diversity efficient market information provision systems to facilitate an We share our forecasts with you through our day). to within ahead (day NTS Control and Situational Awareness of the week ahead), and real time Operational and Procuring activities (one month to one Planning ahead), years to ten (one Access Network Planning into feed forecasts The being undertaken. activity the on depending daily, and weekly Forecasts are produced annually, monthly, information. market latest the as well 2) as Future Scenarios Energy our on based are forecasts demand and supply Our patterns. demand and with future increasingly uncertain supply decision-making processes, particularly SO to our critical is demand and supply gas of forecasting accurate and Effective
1 , by helping you manage your (see Chapter
Long to medium term term Short Process improving? we are How inconsistencies quickly. or gaps data any resolve and capture to able are we this, doing By teams. forecasting longer-term to the in back teams loop from the operational and short-term feedback effective an have we by ensuring medium-term supply and demand forecasts We continuously improve our long-to- of the new technology. most the to make processes existing our forecasting tools, we revise and optimise new develop we As systems. and tools our current processes using our existing of efficiency the to maximise We aim
102 Chapter four 103
),
Enhanced Operational Forecasting Operational Enhanced Portal via the link provided below. http://www.smarternetworks.org/ Project.aspx?ProjectID=1810 please visit the Smarter Networks Networks Smarter the visit please We areWe currently undertaking a project to forecasting long-term existing our rationalise mapping and methods statistical using tools, of our functional requirements across teams. This is best to understand which are the most appropriate tools be to using in the long term, so we have a consistent approach and fit planning conducting to inputs, purpose for timescales. long to medium over activities nowWe have a working prototype supply funded tool, forecasting demand and Innovation Network Ofgem the through Allowance (NIA) scheme.Delivered in early this is now in2016, a period of testing and short-term existing benchmarking against assess to processes, associated and tools our into incorporation its determine and activities. operational project this on information more For ( Systems/Tools Long to medium term medium to Long Short term 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter four Operator capabilities Operator Investing in our System Planning Planning 4.4.2 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 What is it? is What or failure on any part of the NTS. the of part any on failure or damage of aresult as or actions balancing system other taking by satisfied be cannot operational balancing requirement which an is there when OM use We can gas. (OM) Margins Operating for Case a Need identify also we Access Network Planning In works planning and clear communications. by effective you on impact the to minimise always is aim Our activities. maintenance acontinue large number undertaking of to likely are we that means health asset on focus 2, our Chapter in described As out. carried be will maintenance activities affecting your assets critical when you to notify us enables This maintenance and construction activities. acceptable timescales with the TO for mutually agree we where Plan Access NTS Other outputs from this include activity our would impact our network capability. rules andindustry our associated obligations We consider whether variations to existing you. for service areliable deliver commercial and operational strategies to long-term of part as swaps, flow the-day substitution, bilateral contracts and on- management tools, such as capacity constraint SO our to use able are we capability, insufficient has network the If requirements. profile flow anticipated and continuing to deliver your (AOP), Pressures Offtake e.g. Assured regulatory and contractual obligations, our meeting while safely to operate system our of capability the We assess capability. system our affect may possible future system constraints, which quantify and to identify used are factors) (incorporating commercial and physical years ahead. risk Analytical assessments to ten one approximately of horizon time a considers Access Network Planning
Process improving? we are How Drivers for change supply or use gas. use or supply to you for network reliable and a safe without our risking to ability provide and maintenance activities can be delivered Transmission, to ensure that construction our TO in colleagues National Grid Gas with working of ways and relationships improved to develop We continue forecasts. demand and Increased number of possible future supply enabling us to defer asset investment. capability, network current our improve may Operators (DNOs). Changing this process between ourselves and Distribution Network agreed are Pressures Offtake Assured way to the changes exploring We are supply and demand. in change within-day and day-to-day Large out to 2021.out works health asset of programme large Our
104 Chapter four 105 The next step in the evolution of this enhancement has been reduce to the undertaking multi- of time computation the through analysis, network scenario development of a process called ‘pattern undertaken in process, This clustering’. Warwick of University the with collaboration reduces significantly Institute, Mathematics the number of supply and demand forecasts requiredbe to analysed. It does this by of groups large (‘clustering’) condensing forecasts a lower to but still representative and accurate set. This also allows us develop to a more informed NTS Access Plan with reduced risk of maintenance activities on your assets being cancelled or deferred as a result of constraints. operational Given the increasingly uncertain increasingly environment the Given and the range of time horizons, the number of possible supplyand demand forecasts that we need consider to has increased in recent years. The ability effectively to analyse this wide range of scenarios in order to understand the impact on system operation vital increasingly becoming capability and is activities. planning and operational our to During we have developed 2016 and are undertake ability to our develop to continuing multi-scenario network analysis over both timescales. operational and planning techniques analysis existing to Compared and activities, this capabilitywill allow us to of impact operational the understand better a greater number of forecast scenarios than we have previously been capable of with our processes. and tools current useWe the new multi-scenario analysis approach assess to future Need Cases and evaluate network access requests. When our in improvements the with combined demand and supply long-to-medium-term enables us this capabilities, forecasting robust comprehensive, more develop to commercial, long-term probabilistic and This strategies. operational and investment community. the for costs minimise to us helps Systems/Tools 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter four Operator capabilities Operator Investing in our System Operational strategy strategy Operational 4.4.3 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Drivers for change it? is What in the electricity market. particularly in response to changes Shorter customer notice periods, operation. sensitive price Greater change in supply and demand. Large day-to-day and within-day stakeholders. and customers our for value to deliver regulator the with agreed and structured been have which incentives, SO our against We opportunities to identify perform to use. you for network the of capability the maximising while access NTS facilitate can they that so information, latest up-to-date commercial and physical the with room control our We provide system. the of operation reliable and safe the for risks mitigate and identify plans short-term Our forecasts. demand intelligence, plus the latest supply and using up-to-date market and customer optimised and refined continually are and are based on our long-term risk assessments on-the-day control room support. Our plans with end and to week-ahead day, through gas the of ahead month one approximately from developed are plans short-term These gas day. each requirements pressure and flow your meet to configuration optimum an in assets associated and network our configure can we that to ensure plans short-term develop Within our operational strategy activities, we
Systems/Tools Process improving? we are How improvement opportunities for the SO. system are there where or requirements risk of impacting our to ability meet customer detailed, in-depth analysis for areas at higher more into efforts our to target us allow activities. analysis These enhancements procurement and planning our in benefits to realise used being also are chapter enhancements described earlier in this The multi-scenario network analysis you. for deliver turn, in who, room, control our of needs the to deliver continuing are we that confirm to and efficiency to ensure processes strategy short-term our develop and review We regularly being affected. to mitigate the risk of your operation room control to the plans optimised and informed more to provide us allow will this visualisation of results from the analysis, and systematisation improved and short-term supply and demand forecasting, in improvements the with combined When
106 Chapter four 107
Our Enhanced Gas Measurement Gas Enhanced Our Programme, due for completion by compliant appliances is home your in used with specifications defined by the HSE. SIMONE (Online) allows us undertake to current and state predicted future operational further developing are We assessments. risk enhancements this to package that will maximise the benefits of real-time simulation provideto continuous advice our to control room. This will allow us anticipate to time, of ahead network the on constraints and physical mitigating put to us enabling the minimise to place in actions commercial risk of your operation being affected. is replacing ageingMarch gas 2017, the with equipment monitoring quality gas the means This technology. latest In July 2016 we replacedIn July 2016 our core control room and support systems with the new Gas Control Suite The (GCS). new system data and enhanced telemetry provides room control the to analytics functionality Over the past year we have continued to develop the use of the real-time version of our (Online), SIMONE software, analysis network in our control room and within-day support activities. SIMONE (Online) is connected to Acquisition Data Supervisory and our Control (SCADA) systems and receives your flow notifications as well as ourtelemetered data. In line with the replacement of our existing operational systems, new fit for purpose processes will be developed and appropriate. where implemented and support teams. Systems/Tools How are we improving? Process
Within-day change in supply and demand. and supply in change Within-day operation. sensitive Price Increasing range of quality of gas (within limits). GS(M)R future operational risks. In Control we we Control In risks. operational future resolve any system issues maintain to SituationalAwareness is the first of our the to relates that capabilities operational NTS. the of operation real-time control our operation, day-to-day During room must beaware of the level of operational risk and how this affects our ability meet to our dailycustomer us allows information Real-time requirements. maketo informed decisions ensure to that we efficiently operate the system so that you can flow gas safely. continuouslyWe monitor and assess both the current and predicted status of assets, flows, pressures, linepack, gas quality balance. energy national and parameters Control and Awareness Situational Both (outlined later in this chapter) could be Situational In activity. single a as considered Awareness we receive, process, and interpret real-time data determine to current and safe and efficient operation. Drivers for change for Drivers What is it? Situational Awareness Awareness Situational 4.4.4 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter four Operator capabilities Operator Investing in our System Operational Control Control Operational 4.4.5 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 they continue to be fit for purpose in the future. the in purpose for fit to be continue they to ensure systems and tools these to develop need may we increase, managed being risk of levels the and required actions the of complexity the as However purpose. for fit are use currently The tools and communication methods we Drivers for change it? is What (within GS(M)R limits). gas of quality of range Increasing Price sensitive operation. Within-day change in supply and demand. – – be required to ensure: will actions control more to evolve, continue behaviours customers’ our and flows gas As customers to initiate actions. third-party with effectively engage and management, such as energy balancing or constraint commercial rules, take commercial actions against notifications flow customer validate events, to unplanned react assets, NTS to operate us enable function this in use we that systems and processes The network. the operating when decisions efficient and informed make can room control our that ensure all of our other operational capabilities, to from inputs use Control within activities Our –
our system operates safely operates system our that we meet our customers’ daily needs. daily customers’ our meet we that we maintain a national energy balance and
Systems/Tools Process improving? we are How your operation being affected. of risk the to minimise issues to mitigate us enable now will This analysis. and data actions based upon the most up-to-date operational decisions and takes control makes room control the that to ensure from all other operational capabilities information relevant together to bring us allows now This room. control our in data operational present and collate we that way the improved (GCS), has Suite Control Gas new the with systems, support and room control core current our of replacement The implemented when appropriate. and developed be will processes purpose 4.4.4,for fit new Section in mentioned operational systems, including those existing our of replacement the with line In and efficiently. and effectively to operate able is market the information provision systems to ensure within-day improved in investing be will we balancing position. To help you with this, increasing in challenges managing your daily face will you that anticipate we uncertainty, With increasing market volatility and
108 Chapter four
109
data are an key to effective operational day review. As part of the delivery of GCS as this document. this as operational of quality and availability The we are investing in new software store to and visualise data in new and innovative ways, which will allow us complete to analysis. data in-depth more We are increasingly sharing more information information more sharing increasingly are We you performance with operational our on Operator System and Operational the in Forums. host We the forums with shippers and Operators, Network Distribution and such publish, we that documents through Our new systems, in particular the new GCS, will help us draw to conclusions learning effective that ensure quickly, more is developed and fed back into our other operational processes and systems so that you. service our to improve continuously we We wantWe continueto improve to our relationships and ways of working with When stakeholders. and customers our occur, incidents compliance customer abilityparticularly affect which your those operate,to we always review and, where reduce to learnt lessons any share possible, the risk of repeat occurrences. Systems/Tools How are we improving? Process
Anticipated increased number of of number increased Anticipated supply/demand environment. supply/demand actions. control Evolving customer requirements and requirements customer Evolving Given the changing, increasingly uncertain increasingly changing, the Given supply and demand environment, we will not be able rely to on our past experiences of operating our network. As a result, this development the on emphasis greater places of effective feedback loops from this area our monitor to need increasingly We contractual with compliance customers’ We standards. technical and obligations provide feedback those to parties that obligations, their outside operating be may knock-on a has operation their if particularly effect on us being able deliver to a reliable service for you. we make will inevitably increase. The amount of review, validation and analysis will therefore also increase as we are required take to more actions. Operational and Planning the both into activities. Control We are continuously improving how we we how improving continuously are We operate our network ensure to we are providing thebest service for you. As we take on a more active role in managing and balancing the network, the number of that actions operational and commercial Drivers for change for Drivers What is it?
Review Review 4.4.6 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter four System operation transit route for LNG to Europe. LNG for route transit west–east important the and London for supply of security ensuring East, South the into flows controls and EU with GB bridges It network. the of part interdependent ahugely at base customer the of subset alarge for node swing transmission network, being a key dynamic The site is a critical component of the gas accelerates degradation such as corrosion. which environment acoastal in is 1969 and in built was It future. the into and currently both UK to the point entry akey gas is Bacton Bacton are detailed below: projects bigger the of some on detail More Tools Assets. or Rule, of range full the Optioneering is then completed looking at impact. potential the assessing and network the from assets/sites the removing of impact health projects. These Need Cases look at the to asset related been have year this completed Cases Need the of number A significant health Asset 4.5.1 12 last months. the over completed Cases Need the summarise and decisions previous all review we Here review Case Need 4.5 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
for the site. the for on-going to develop the optimal solution retained as the site is rationalised. Work is determining what needs to functionality be a more detailed assessment to be completed allow will it site the for requirements clear With health. asset in invest to efficiently order in site the of requirements future the assess should Changing UK supplies and demand meant we 2013. 21on March 139.1of flow amaximum with demand 33% UK of average on 2013 supplied March of Bacton month entire the For Bacton. from flows record required winter of end the at low was storage when 2013, snap March cold In alate gas. nation’s the of volume alarge manages site The mcm/d totalling 40% of UK demand demand UK of 40% totalling mcm/d
110 Chapter four 111
The Orenda compressor units at at units compressor Orenda The station. compressor Churchover Huntingdon compressor aftercoolers compressor Huntingdon Wormington compressor aftercoolers compressor Wormington The disconnection works will be combined be will works disconnection The with other project work on the three sites. Summary of plant without a Need Case Other assessments have confirmed there is no Need Case for:
mcm/d and plays mcm/d and 100 Feeder 9 Humber Crossing Humber 9 Feeder river the across route transportation sole the As Humber, Feeder 9 is one of the most critical transports regularly It NTS. the on pipelines between 70 a pivotal role in the provision of entry capacity in the Easington area and the UK gas market over concerns continuing are There whole. as the integrity of the pipeline due rapid to and estuaryunpredictable movements. Energy Scenarios Future four our using Analysis demonstrates that there is a long-term requirement for Feeder Through 9. our strategic optioneering process we have determined that a replacement pipeline in a tunnel is the most therefore are We solution. long-term credible pipeline replacement a with progressing the monitor to continuing as well as solution, frequency. increased an on crossing existing 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter four System operation build position at this time. demand in 2020, our supporting no further FES initiate a physical solution. In addition the latest to insufficient remains Case Need the exists, still region this in back buy capacity of risk changed since 2013. Therefore although our notably not has position capacity booked The Region. West South the in position flow forecast and capacity the to monitor We continue interests. consumer in not is time this at build aphysical that determined Utilities, &West Wales and Executive Safety and Health the notably most stakeholders, with work and RIIO-T1. of analysis part as Our agreed were Avonmouth at facility storage LNG by the provided currently service Allowances to replace the operational Avonmouth decisions. investment to our commit we when planning process have helped us optimise our in improvements how detail we Here investment asset Deferred 4.5.2 2 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Consultation on the mid-point review (MPR) of RIIO-T1 indicates a significant reduction in 1-in-20 reduction asignificant indicates
amount allowed for the pipeline’s output the to reflect by £168.8 million allowance expenditure load-related our to reduce is publication, Ofgem's minded to position RIIO-T1. in of time At the Proposals Final the of time the at agreed was as process, Review Mid-Period the of part been has The of delivery the Avonmouth output
2
.
112 Chapter four
113
asset reinforcementit – would be more expensive, complex deliver to and would provide less security. lower demand levels which is not addressed solution. AOP reduced the by haveWe assessed the potential for a additional incentivise to solution contractual entry flows at St Fergus, such as a diversion of flows from Easington. Our current view is that this would have no benefits over the including considered, being options other NTS risk and the change in this profile at With a partial reduction in AOP allowing us to RIIO-T1, beyond capabilities 1-in-20 maintain we have deferred the potential NTS investment SGN. discussions with continue we while Should the partial AOP reduction not be possible and due a four-year to build period we would need start to progress to our asset solution based on 2018, by the current FES. areWe continuing assess to the inherent
publication and it indicates that if that indicates it and publication FES The reduction of AOPs in Southern Scotland. An off-peak AOP reduction for Northern Scotland. of implications cost and Optimisation investing in the Distribution Network vs investment in the NTS. Scotland 1-in-20 Scotland obligation 1-in-20 our under Scotland secure To we have continued assess to the Need Case for the Scotland suite 1-in-20 of projects. Our analysis has been updated based on the latest agreement (from SGN) reduce to some of the higher Assured Offtake Pressures (AOPs) in Scotland can be obtained, it would be possible meetto the minimum St Fergus flow levels into early RIIO-T2. Over the months last 12 we have been in discussion with SGN on the impact their to network of reducing the AOPs. They have reduction a accept to potential the indicated to theirto Southern Scotland offtake AOPs but would require investment accept to any reductions at their Northern Scotland offtake AOPs. The reduced Southern Scotland AOPs can be maintained under peak 1-in-20 conditions into early through However, RIIO-T2. the same period, reduced AOPs cannot be maintained at lower demand levels and will continue be to managed through current UK that suggests Evidence tools. operational reduce to continue will supplies shelf continental which means the reduced AOPs are not an we results these on Based solution. enduring are continuing progress to the below options with SGN: 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter four Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 114 Chapter five
115 116
Asset development five Chapter Chapter 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter five Portfolio stage of our Network Development of our Network (NDP). stage Process Portfolio (FES) in our Future sensitivities Scenarios and Energy scenarios the review. against health our asset assessed are These (IED) Directive Emissions and of the Industrial aresult as 2016/17, potential and investment options for later years in construction under projects projects, reinforcement Transmission National sanctioned (NTS) System option. evaluated It out been sets thehas preferred as investment asset where needs network future and current way efficient the most of delivering chapterThis considers development Asset Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Key insights around uncertainty Increasing requirements by31December2023. threshold mustcomplywithnew produce emissionsabovetheIED All ofourgas-drivencompressors that more challenging. planning future capabilityontheNTS supply anddemandscenariosmakes publication. This chapter also explores the Establish publication. explores chapter This the Establish also
for ourcustomersandstakeholders. the rightlevelsofnetworkperformance management decisionssowecandeliver three yearswewillmakeeffective asset allowances andoutput.Overthenext Ofgem RIIOmeasure, intermsof Delivering AssetHealthworksisakey timescales todeliveranyinvestments. we expecttomeetthenecessary from theIED.Flowsare monitored and against thenetworkchangesresulting have timetoassesspotentialsolutions limited capabilitytodothis,butwe gas south-to-north.We currently have means wemustbeabletomovemore The declineofflowsfrom StFergus
116 Chapter five 117 Review and Close Project Execute Project Least regrets option or options? Value Value fordelivered customers and end consumers under different options? Develop and Sanction This allows for the comparison of options both in terms of effectiveness at meeting the Need Case requirements and overall cost. The considered have we option each of implications stakeholder at discussed summarised and are then are options The workshops. engagement narrowed down identify to a preferred option which not only addresses the Need Case but solution. cost-effective most the delivers showsFigure the stages 5.1 of the NDP between Need Case and project closure.
Invest in assets, develop commercial options or wider network options? Select Option
Stakeholder Engagement Risks of ‘Do Nothing’ option. Consider ‘rules’, ‘tools’ and ‘assets’. Establish Portfolio Need Case Required system capability over the short/ medium/ long term.
Trigger A change in the network, legislation, market or customer requirements. Figure 5.1 The Network Development Process Introduction Chapter 1 introduced our Network Development Process (NDP). In this penultimate chapter 5.1 we expand on the asset solution element of of element solution asset the on expand we the ‘Establish Portfolio’ stage. This stage is cannot trigger a to solution a if reached only be found within the existing capabilities of the system. The aim of this stage is establish to a portfolio in thisof, case, physical investment options that address the Need Case. A range of options are investigated during the network option. Nothing’ ‘Do a including phase, analysis 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Introduction Chapter five decommissioning ofdecommissioning Unit D. the Eand Unit of re-wheel the progressing 2016/17 in aresult, As are we machine. the of status LLD the given to repair uneconomical to be anticipated is Dwhich Unit on failure in-service an 2016 March In discovered we C. Unit of replacement and decommissioning IED consultation, we have put on hold the Ofgem’s during communicated as and this, to response In directive. final the in 2030 to back moved has deadline this lobbying, Subsequently, due in to part our international by 2025. addressed to be units compressor regarding MCP) requiring all non-compliant information 2.4 more for 4, section Chapter (see Medium Combustion Plant (MCP) Directive draft the on based was plan However, this At we proposed Kirriemuir originally to: Kirriemuir Compressor by 2023. requirements IED the with compliance to ensure work of plan our on update an 2015 the in GTYS Further to the reopener submission as detailed Directive Emissions Industrial 5.2 projects Current Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 decommission and replace Unit C. Unit replace and decommission E, and Unit re-wheel and de-rate legislative deadline required the at or exhausted were hours decommissioning once the available Life Derogation (LLD), followed by D(RB211) Unit enter Limited the into
, we are now able to provide to provide able now are , we
asset health works are being planned. the and Agency Environment the from obtained As per the proposal, the derogations have been Warrington Compressor asset health works are being planned. the and Agency Environment the from obtained As per the proposal, the derogations have been Compressor Moffat 2016. early in accepted operationally was which unit VSD electric the of progress positive the on based is remaining two units into the LLD. This decision the and derogation, hours 500 the into units existing the of one entered have currently and plans our revised We have units. smaller three with them replace then and LLD into site the at units existing three all to enter was station The proposed option at Hatton compressor Hatton Compressor assess replacement options. machines. Design work is in progress to continue to be some of our highest polluting the electric drives. As such these Avon units to despite be necessary the introduction of continue will units Avon the of running significant that such is terminal the through flows of range The emissions. to reduce units Avon two to replace proposed we to IPPC regard With (SEPA). Agency Protection Environmental Scottish the from received approvals necessary the and completed been has action This LLD. the 2D into and 2A Units LCP, of to enter terms In proposed we LCP requirements. the to address second the and IPPC with accordance in emissions fleet our reduce to continue to first the work; of programmes two proposed we Fergus At St. St. Fergus Compressor
118 Chapter five 119
Early 2015 St Fergus (two new electrically driven units) unit). driven electrically new (one Kirriemuir Early 2016 unit). driven electrically new (one Hatton and Control (IPPC) directive and (IPPC) Control Phases 1 and 2 of our IPPCEmissions complete. now are Programme Reduction Replacement compressor units have been commissioned and accepted operationally follows: as 5.3.1 IntegratedPrevention Pollution phase 1 and 2 IPPC 5.3 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter five system pressures during unplanned outages. minimum maintaining or sites the of one allowing maintenance to be on undertaken by example for resilience, network provide can interchangeability This flows. network be used interchangeably depending on can they demands At lower together. operate to required are winter, they during example for levels, demand At high NTS. the on pressures and flows to maintaining critical are stations Peterborough and Huntingdon compressor transportation licence. by our Design Standard described level demand day 1-in-20the peak at particularly system, the of east and south the in flows network to manage needed are sites The system. the of south the in demand and south) the in terminals Grain of Isle and Haven Milford the from imports (LNG) Gas Natural Liquefied and terminal Bacton north, the to terminals the (from flows supply by affected is sites both of operation The these sites. at provided capability to current similar very are This showed that requirements future capability Future Scenarios Energy our from produced supply and demand conditions using our data of range a across flows network assessed and future network operation. The analysis current to critical are sites both that confirmed 2014 in completed analysis network Extensive limitsemissions by 2021. CO and NOx IPPC with to comply stations, Huntingdon and Peterborough compressor Programme includes investment at the Phase 3 of the Emissions Reduction IPPC 3 phase 5.3.2 projects Current 1 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 To plan the system to meet the 1-in-20 peak aggregate daily demand, including but not limited to, within-day gas flow variations variations flow gas to, within-day day. limited that on not but including demand, daily aggregate peak 1-in-20 the tomeet system the To plan
1 as defined in our our in defined as
. was granted in April 2016. April in granted was consent and trains, compressor the of impact visual the to enhancements significant with 2016, in early submitted was Peterborough for November 2015. A second planning application application for Peterborough was rejected in granted 2016. in January However, the planning The planning consent for Huntingdon was 2015. in Huntingdon and Peterborough both for Identical planning applications were submitted £4.7 million to date. at estimated been has cost in reduction number of challenges to the design. The net a in resulted This projects. these on (IC&R) Investmentundertaken Challenge and Reviews have we this of part As specifications. meets achieve a minimal whole life cost solution that to is projects these delivering in objective Our awarded. been has contract the and complete also is process tender contract works main The 2015/16. in completed were study FEED the of The feasibility and conceptual design stages effective solution to reduce emissions. a 15.3 3, phase IPPC for that BATThe identified BAT. the represent not do drives electric Technique (BAT) concluded assessment that process for Huntingdon the Best Available Huntingdon. However, following the tender Peterborough but remained a possibility at at viable not were compressors driven electrically that concluded study (FEED) Design Engineering End Front the of stages early The Bacton terminal. to/or from and terminal LNG Haven Milford from north, the from flows to manage gas of transfer west–east and east–west north–south, the for akeysite also is Peterborough MW gas turbine is the most cost- cost- most the is turbine gas MW
120 Chapter five 121
Main Works Contracts take to advantage of contractual and outage efficiencies. A significant quantity of essential asset health investmenthas been identified at both asset These Huntingdon. and Peterborough health works are financially separate from IPPC 3 and 4 core and extraordinary works scopes, but will be delivered using the mechanism of theIPPC Early Works and
IPPC phase 4 IPPC For IPPC, as per re-opener the May 2015 we identifiedPeterborough, Huntingdon and St emission for priority sites next the as Fergus and Peterborough at works The reduction. IPPC alongside progressing are Huntingdon phase 3 works. St At Fergus we are progressing the pre-work sanction stage of development. 5.3.3 The delay planning to at Peterborough meant early that works only the 2016/17 contract to progress could Huntingdon at award in March 2016. a review of the deliveryIn 2015/16 programmes across both sites was undertaken. The project delivery strategy was revised commence to withearly works at Huntingdon in 2016/17, DuePeterborough to following in 2017/18. planned no now is there delays planning the early works phase at Peterborough in 2016. The entire work scope at Peterborough will be delivered via the Main Works Contract (MWC) beto awarded in 2016/17. 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter five Aylesbury compressor Aylesbury 5.4.1 Submission. Ofgem Investment: IED non-compliant units are included in our Options for the other sites which have station. compressor Aylesbury at underway currently LCP is the with to comply Work basis. aunit-by-unit on site affected each at looked have we do should we what To decide LCP. by the 16 affected are units, compressor LCP. the in gas-driven 64 out set our Of requirements the mirrors IED the respect, this by IED. In superseded been LCP has The Combustion Plant Directive Large 5.4 projects Current (downstream of Aylesbury). Lockerley only has backup site to Lockerley compressor station agas-powered as role important an provides Under lower demand conditions Aylesbury to the levels experienced on the network today. variation flow within-day and unavailability plant maintaining system resilience to plant failure, system, the within linepack to manage operated be also can compressors these demand, day 1-in-20 the peak than levels demand At lower West. South the in levels demand day 1-in-20 peak support to critical are and system the around flows move sites These West. South the in Lockerley and Lincolnshire in Hatton between stations of aseries in akeysite is compressor Aylesbury ELVs. (CO) monoxide carbon the with compliant non- are but directive (ELVs) the in Values stated Limit Emission (NOx) oxide nitrogen the with compliant are units existing The LCP directive. the with to comply required are therefore and 50 over input athermal have site this at Aylesbury. The existing gas compressor units at units two on 1works LCP Phase the to fund RIIO-T1 under allowance upfront an We received Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
MW MW
following: (ELVs) the Values below Limit 50 over input thermal a with LCP, the with To installations all comply in December 2016, subject to outages. 2016, subject December in completion for set is project The package. upgrade overall an of part as during Aylesbury at delivered being are works asset-related other of Anumber Agency. Environment by the accepted been has solution, and permit the variation necessary innovative this to develop Siemens with working 2015. in We are accepted was height stack to the increase an for application A planning stack. exhaust the in catalyst oxidation aCO of addition by the achieved ELV CO be the can that highlighted study FEED Aylesbury The South West. the in (CCGTs) Turbines connect Gas Cycle Combined new if pressures system to support or terminals, Grain of Isle or Bacton the from flows additional to accommodate enhancement require may site the that identified We also system. the of south the in levels demand day 1-in-20 to peak meet required is Aylesbury that 2014 in determined completed analysis Network ofconsequence strict local planning constraints. electrically driven compressor units installed as a carbon monoxide (CO) –100 (CO) monoxide carbon new installations. existing installations –75 (NOx) oxide nitrogen –50 (NOx) oxide nitrogen MW must have Emission Emission have must MW mg/Nm3 for for mg/Nm3 mg/Nm3 for for mg/Nm3 mg/Nm3
122
Chapter five 123
to assess what options are available to to available are options what assess to Stakeholder legislation. new this with comply engagement activities, as used with the IED and IPPC programmes, will be undertaken to found. are solutions possible best the ensure For every asset health issue we are now required, still is asset the considering whether or if there is a more suitable alternative option. whether including options all consider We maintain,to replace or remove the asset. Reviewing each case like this will drive the site. each at solutions cost-effective most
5.6 Asset health review As indicated in Chapter section 2, the 2.5, NTS is ageing. This means that asset health is becoming a more prominent issue for us. Previously, the strategy we adopted for asset maintaining on focus to was investment health the condition of our primary and secondary multi-junctions, pipelines, points, (entry assets compressor stations and axit points) avoid to costly asset replacement. This strategy reduces disruption. network and outages long of risk the Medium Combustion Plant Directive Plant Combustion Medium As we indicated in Chapter section 2, the 2.4, MCP directive is currently in draft. Based on the anticipated have we legislation draft the likely impact on our compressor fleet. However, further analysis will need be to undertaken 5.5 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter five Future projects obligations in Scotland in a 1-in-20 demand a1-in-20 in demand Scotland in obligations current meet to difficult it make could Fergus St from supplies Lower (south). Wales and England in to demand (north) Fergus St from supply gas UK of majority the to move operated and designed was NTS the Historically flows. Fergus St in adecline predict scenarios our of All andconsumer the supplier. the for both behaviour usage gas into insight is highlighted by our four scenarios, offering Scenarios Future our in Energy identified we As changing. is NTS the exits and enters gas way The Meeting flow future patterns 5.7 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
publication, the degree of change which the IED will bring. will IED the which potential solutions against the network changes to assess time allow does this but implemented, whether an asset-based solution will need to be by 2018 to determine need 4, do we Chapter the RIIO submission. price As discussed in of time the at expected was as severe as been not has decline flow the and monitored are flows strategy, ongoing our of part As Chapter 4. currently being progressed, as discussed in to mitigate this risk. Commercial options are options considering been have we and scenario 124 Chapter six
125 126
Way forward Way six Chapter Chapter 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter six the year publications. to future shape 2014/15, always but are interested in your views throughout over feedback on received with apublication based format withto you engage over the coming year. We have continued Tenof the Gas Year Statement chapterThis outlines to our plans continue the development forward Way 1 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 http://talkingnetworkstx.consense.co.uk/ Key insights from previous publications. generated basedonfeedbackreceived format usedforGTYS2015,whichwas We havecontinuedwiththedocument (GTYS) at ourTalking Networks website You cancheckourproject progress GTYS@ nationalgrid.com our to you.Pleasedothisbycontactingusvia telling uswhichareas are/are notofvalue You canhelpustoshape theGTYSby GTYS mailboxBox.SystemOperator. and how and we propose 1 .
126 Chapter six 127
process, enabling process, to continue to add to value: communication process around around process communication Seek identify to and understand the views and customers our all of opinions and stakeholders. engagement for opportunities Provide GTYS the throughout constructive debate. Create an open and two-way outputs. and drivers assumption, stakeholder and customer all to Respond feedback and demonstrate how this has considered. been We haveWe adopted the following principles to enable the GTYS is an opportunity for us outline to our we analyse all customer and stakeholder
Continuous development of GTYS of development Continuous GTYS for plans asset-based and operational current System Transmission National the developing (NTS) ensure to we continue meet to the needs of our customers and stakeholders. use We this document highlight to any challenges that we planning and operation future our facing see of the NTS. As part of our annual review of the GTYS valuable is publication the ensure to feedback for you and is fit for purpose. wantWe continue to engage to with you, by decision-making process, our in you involving and processes our on transparency providing plans. our of informed you keeping 6.1 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter six the following topics: as well as publications, both on views your to get keen are we information), further 1 for Planning around the inaugural Gas Future Operability 2016/17 enagagement Over the of part as 2016 feedback publication GTYS Network Development Process (NDP). publication around the initial stages of our year’s this to align 2015, continued have we GTYS to shape used feedback the From 2015/16 engagement and feedback stakeholder 6.2 projects Current Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 System Flexibility. Network Development Policy. Industrial Emissions Directive. Asset Health. 5). Appendix (see to you interest of be would this as by site include information on storage injectability 3) Chapter (see region exit each in located are offtakes Connect Direct which on clarity greater provide and try
2016 also continues to: 2016 continues also document (please see Chapter
hearing fromhearing you. to forward year. We look coming the over to meet get we where opportunities other any [email protected] through either our GTYS feedback your to receive happy We are on. feedback your to get keen some questions which we are particularly are Below value. you to areas document the GTYS of edition this on comments and feedback your We welcome
value to you? value GTYS the of areas Which – Which areas of the GTYS the of areas Which – like to see included in the GTYS the in included to see like Is there any additional information you would – GTYS the Does to the NTS? to the identifying opportunities to connect in you to assist information provide and efficient way? efficient and acoordinated in NTS the of development illustrate the future needs and develop the NTS? the develop to order in follow we process the explain : as it helps us to tailor to tailor us helps it as mailbox ( most of are can we improve? we can .Box.System ? ) or through through ) or
128
Chapter seven 129 142 159 192 154 130 195 189 194
eams152
Appendix 1 – National Transmission System (NTS) maps System (NTS) Appendix 1 – National Transmission seven
Chapter Chapter Appendix connections 2 – Customer and capacity, framework process and PARCA the Appendix 3 – Meet t the 2015/16 Appendix 4 – Actual flows Appendix 5 – Gas scenarios demand and supply volume Appendix activity 6 – EU Appendix Process 7 – Network Development Appendix matrix 8 – Conversion Appendix 9 – Glossary 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven System (NTS) maps Transmission National 1 Appendix Scotland (SC)–NTS Figure A1.1 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 e a
re a re a t
ath ate
ether r a a e
er e e h
B
r r r
rr e r at
a ra
er ee
tra Care t
e rth
h e e a t er
pr e t ppr e e prat p pe e r te ter at e compressor modifications e pre r r t pre r t ra e a t ta e r p e p pe e p t et ee e te a r e th pe e a eter th ta e ar er t p pe e ar er a 130 Chapter seven 131 er a ar p pe e t ar er ta e th a eter pe e e th r a e te et ee p t p pe e r p e ta e a t t ra e pre r t r pre r e modifications compressor ter at e r te p pe e prat e ppr e pr e t ee e
rth a t C pe e e
a t h t
h p a
et
a
hr t t
tt e r
er
a C trea e t
rth ethera t e
e t a Figure A1.2 North (NO) – NTS 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven System (NTS) maps Transmission National 1 Appendix North West (NW)–NTS Figure A1.3 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
arr t rt a e Car rth e
t
ra e t e t r e
rea e
r h
t
ar rt
h a h
rth
pt
a e r
a pa
a r
arr t e Chape
ether e et art t
r r
r
e t a
rth a t rth a t a a t
pr e t ppr e e prat p pe e r te ter at e compressor modifications e pre r r t pre r t ra e a t ta e r p e p pe e p t et ee e te a r e th pe e a eter th ta e ar er t p pe e ar er a 132 Chapter seven 133 er a ar p pe e t ar er ta e th a eter pe e e th r a e te et ee p t p pe e r p e ta e a t t ra e pre r t r pre r e modifications compressor ter at e r te p pe e prat e ppr e pr e t a t
ee r
a h a e
a tea er
e a t a a
e h rth t
a er
r e a a a
rth e t Figure A1.4 North East (NE) – NTS 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven System (NTS) maps Transmission National 1 Appendix East Midlands(EM)–NTS Figure A1.5 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 W North Midlands W est est q1 q2 Alrewas
p 900(51)
900(24) North East Blaby South Harborough Market
900(16) 900(17)
1 900( j Langton T ur
Caldecott
1)
900(19) 900(35) 750(1)
900(5) C Silk
Blyborough
900(14)
Willoughby o n 900(5) Hatton
m1 1050(38) m2 1050(10) 900(32) 1050(25) 1200(45)
1050(55) 900(17) k
Kirkstead 900(29) 1050(55)
900(34)
750(36)
Gosberton 900(25)
Eastern 900(2) Sutton Bridge jj Theddlethorpe
pr e t ppr e e prat p pe e r te ter at e compressor modifications e pre r r t pre r t ra e a t ta e r p e p pe e p t et ee e te a r e th pe e a eter th ta e ar er t p pe e ar er a 134 Chapter seven 135 er a ar p pe e t ar er ta e th a eter pe e e th r a e te et ee p t p pe e r p e ta e a t t ra e pre r t r pre r e modifications compressor ter at e r te p pe e prat e ppr e pr e t a t a
p th e a e
tre
er t ea t Ch r h er
t h
t
e t h t e p e trat r p rth e t
e th r r r
a e West Midlands (WM) – NTS Midlands (WM) West Figure A1.6 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven System (NTS) maps Transmission National 1 Appendix Wales (WN& WS) –NTS Figure A1.7 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 r a e
C a h r e re
a a e th a e rth
er ae r
a ether e t
th
rth
e t
e t
e t a e t
pr e t ppr e e prat p pe e r te ter at e compressor modifications e pre r r t pre r a t t ra e ta e r p e p pe e p t et ee e te a r e th pe e a eter th ta e ar er t p pe e ar er a 136 Chapter seven 137 er a ar p pe e t ar er ta e th a eter pe e e th r a e te et ee p t p pe e r p e ta e t ra e a t pre r t r pre r e modifications compressor ter at e r te p pe e prat e ppr e pr e t a t
e ert
e ha eath
Che r
r e
tap e r
ree aa at h
reat raha
ha e
e t
h t Ca r e e h rth
t e h t e
E
tepp e
e
t
tt
a t a
eter r h th Eastern (EA) – NTS Figure A1.8 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven System (NTS) maps Transmission National 1 Appendix North Thames(NT)–NTS Figure A1.9 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 dd
South Winkfield
Peters Green South East Eastern Lane Luxborough
Horndon
aa
projects Approved emissions pipelines of Uprating route Alternative compressor modifications or compressor New Existing compressor facility Storage Offtake Proposed pipeline LDZs between point acrossing Denotes (km) Length (mm) diameter Pipeline marker) distance (with Existing pipeline LDZ boundary Terminal 138 Chapter seven 139 Terminal boundary LDZ pipeline Existing (with distance marker) Pipeline diameter (mm) Length (km) Denotes a crossing point between LDZs pipeline Proposed Offtake Storage facility compressor Existing New compressor or modifications compressor Alternative route Uprating of pipelines emissions Approved pr e t ra Isle of
h r e ar ha
ha e rth
atsfield
th Figure A1.10 South East (SE) – NTS 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven System (NTS) maps Transmission National 1 Appendix South (SO)–NTS Figure A1.11 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 th Mappowder
est
Lockerley
900(31)
Braishfield Midlands Ipsden est field F
ylesbury th a t Midlands a t dd
rth
Hardwick
Thames Eastern
projects Approved emissions pipelines of Uprating route Alternative compressor modifications or compressor New Existing compressor facility Storage Offtake Proposed pipeline LDZs between point acrossing Denotes (km) Length (mm) diameter Pipeline marker) distance (with Existing pipeline LDZ boundary Terminal 140 Chapter seven 141 er a ar p pe e t ar er ta e th a eter pe e e th r a e te et ee p t p pe e r p e ta e t ra e a t pre r t r pre r e modifications compressor ter at e r te p pe e prat e ppr e pr e t
u 600(5) South
t 600(4) Cirencester
Evesham 900(42)
150(9)
600(38)
600(14) Easton Grey 600(17)
ormington W 600(24)
Pucklechurch 900(30) Fiddington
w 450(26)
Littleton Drew 600(9) 600(44) Ilchester est Midlands 450(60)
W 450(2)
Ross
600(4) 600(15)
Seabank vonmouth 600(16) A
Barrington
900(26) 600(8)
v
500(36)
600(36) 1200(186) ales South
W ylesbeare 500(10)
A 600(10)
500(15)
Kenn
600(15)
600(32) 600(33) Choakford Figure A1.12 NTS (SW) – South West 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven regarding NIC-funded Project CLoCC. 2 Chapter 2.2 in Section see please NTS, to the connections new of cost and time the reducing are we how on information further For section, still apply. quality specifications, asdetailed in the following entry network existing all that note but network, to the sources supply these connect to help like would and developments these We welcome bed methane. from unconventional sources, such as coal entry gas for requests received also We have system for biomass-derived renewable gas. have asked about into entry our pipeline year, an increasing number of customers that combat climate change. During the last We are committed to environmental initiatives connections Renewable gas 2.1.1 storage and interconnector facilities. delivery, all of operators respective the with interconnector agreement, as appropriate, storage connection agreement or agreement, entry anetwork We require connections interconnector and storage Additional information specific to systementry, 2.1 information capacity and Customer 2 connections Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
http://www.scotiagasnetworks.co.uk/ Networks respectively. For information visit Gas Southern and Networks Gas Scotland as –operating Networks Gas by Scotia managed and owned are LDZ) East South and Scotland and South of England (South LDZ The owners of the distribution networks are: managed within eight gas distribution networks. The twelve local distribution zones (LDZs) are the relevant distribution network. for documents the read please networks, about connections to the gas distribution National Transmission System. For information the gas distribution networks instead of the to connected to be need may it mean gas requirements of biomass-derived renewable pressure the that recognised be should It flow. of measurement the and quality gas both for used to be standards the and point delivery the of location physical the specification, quality gas the things, other among establish, agreements These
142 Chapter seven 143
the implications of the new gas supply gas new the of implications the on our ability continue to meet to our the implications of the proposed gas proposed the of implications the costs running system on composition obligations. contractual existing our ability continue to meet to statutory to, limited not but including, obligations, Regulations (Management) Safety Gas the (GS(M)R)) 1996 in the GS(M)R. the in For indicative purposes, the specification overleaf is usually acceptable for most locations. This specification encompasses, but is not out set requirements statutory the to, limited quality ofany proposed new gas supply, consider: will we North West, London, West Midlands and East of England (East Midlands LDZ and In assessing the acceptability of the gas East Anglia LDZ) are owned and managed Grid- National contact To Grid. National by please connections new about DNs owned go www.nationalgrid.com to
For any new entry connection our to system, soon as us party connecting tell the should likely is composition gas the what possible as be. willto We then determine whether gas with compliant be would composition this of existing our and obligations statutory our quality gas a From obligations. contractual perspective our ability accept to gas supplies into the NTS is affected a range by of factors, the gas, new the of composition the including volumes point, entry system the of location provided and the quality and volumes of gas system. the within transported being already 2.1.2 Network entry quality specification Wales and the West (Wales LDZand South West LDZ) is owned and managed by visit information For Utilities. West and Wales http://www.wwutilities.co.uk/ North of England (North LDZ and Yorkshire LDZ) is owned Northern by Gas Networks, who have contracted operational activities to to activities operational contracted have who visit information For Operations. Utilities United http://www.northerngasnetworks.co.uk/ 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven to 42.3MJ/m in Megajoules per cubic metre (MJ/m metre cubic per Megajoules in quoted usually is pressure, and temperature of gross and measured at standard conditions dry, is which gas, of (CV) Value Calorific The GS(M)R. the 3 of Schedule in to them assigned meanings the have (SI) index soot and (ICF) Note that the incomplete combustion factor information capacity and Customer 2 connections Appendix Gas QualitySpecification Table A2.1 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 the overriding limit. shall normally be in the range of 46.9MJ/m of range the in be normally shall Delivery temperature Pressure Odour Radioactivity Organo halides Contaminants Carbon dioxide Soot index (SI) Incomplete combustion factor (ICF) Hydrocarbon dewpoint Oxygen Hydrogen Total sulphur Hydrogen sulphide Gas Element Wobbe number (real gross dry) gross (real number Wobbe Water dewpoint
3 but the Wobbe number provides provides number Wobbe the but 3 ). CV ). CV 3
Between 1°C and 38°C 1°C and Between the delivery point at pressure operating maximum the exceed not shall pressure entry The totime. time from vary will which point, delivery the at system our of pressure back the account into taking time, any at facility entry our into point delivery the at gas natural todeliver required pressure the be shall pressure delivery The 7 above apressure at permitted not is gas odoured of statutory obligation. GS(M)R any states transmission or distribution contravene might that odour no have shall delivered Gas 5becquerels/g than more Not 1.5 than more Not required action NGG No that agree Ofgem tooperate expected be reasonably could aconsumer that of the Gas Safety (Installation 2(1) and Use) Regulations regulation 1998, of meaning the within appliance, gas any or pipes of operation or integrity the with interfere might that The gas shall not contain solid, liquid or gaseous material 2.5% (molar) than more Not 0.60 than more Not 0.48 than more Not to85 up pressure any at -2°C than more Not 0.001% (molar) than more Not 0.1% than more (molar) Not 50 than more Not 5 than more Not Quality Requirement The Wobbe number shall be in the range 47.20 range to51.41 the in be MJ/m shall number Wobbe The -10°C 85 than at more Not to comply with our safety obligations. safety our with to comply order in butane and propane ethane, as upper limits of rich gas components such on agreement need also We may GS(M)R. the with compliance to ensure tolerance operational an to include agreement an require incomplete combustion factor), we may and index soot number, Wobbe hydrogen, GS(M)R (hydrogen sulphide, total sulphur, in stated to those equal are parameters In addition, where limits on gas quality mg/m mg/m mg/m 3 3 3 barg
barg
barg.
144 3 Chapter seven
145
Forum Gas group to progress a harmonised a progress to group Gas Forum ‘pre-normative’ The range. Index Wobbe stage of this work is expected last to until following2019, which a public enquiry and standardisation/voting procedures would be required in order incorporate to this parameter into the standard. WithinGB carbon dioxide limits have been the subject of industry debate (UNC Modification bring seeking to in 0502) and 0498 Proposals additional gas market to from the UKCS. This debate centred on whether a higher limit at the Teesside entry terminals would be and operating it when necessary. The other side of the debate included consideration of potential impacts for operators downstream until at least 2020. more economic and efficient than upstream plant removal dioxide carbon of installation of NTS exit points in terms of potential costs implemented be should Modifications these with effect from 1 October 2020. Oxygen limits at network entry pointshave also been debated with UNC modifications 0581s soughtand 0561s increase to the oxygen limits at Grain and BBL respectively. IP 0.02% to Both modifications were approvedby the UNC Panel. Any further changes oxygen to limits will be considered on an individual basis. Thedevelopment of shale gas is still in its infancy in the UK and at present there is uncertainty over the quality of such gas until wells are drilled. willWe continue work to with customers and monitor developments in this area. theAt end of its ‘three-phase’ gas quality exercise, initiated in 2003, the UK Government reaffirmed 2007in that it will not propose any changes the to GB gas specifications in the GS(M)R the to Health and Safety Executive for plant integrity, operation, and emissions. emissions. and operation, integrity, plant for In September Ofgem directed 2015, that
amend the Interoperability Network Code Network Interoperability the amend 30by June 2017. during and, invitation this accepted ENTSOG the course of calendar organised year 2016, three stakeholder workshops and ran two contribute to stakeholders EU for consultations gas binding legally a such about views their issues policy the and specification quality that ENTSOG had identified. Along with other Transmission Grid National TSOs, European programme this in supported ENTSOG has of work. ENTSOG will be publishing its proposal amendment its and analysis impact (which could be a proposal not to amend the Interoperability Code) in December 2016. The most important safety parameter in any natural gas quality specificationWobbe – Index – does not at present appear in the CEN standard. The EC has expressed its wish that it should and therefore, in parallel thisto ENTSOG process, CEN in 2016, Sector the under group new a established The CEN (Comité Europeén de Normalisation, Normalisation, de Europeén (Comité CEN The standardisation) for committee European the gas quality standard has now been formally adopted. present, At its application is voluntary within EU Member States, however, its expressed has Commission European the amendment an via binding it make to intention theto EU Network Code on Interoperability and Data Exchange Rules, now Regulation 2015/703. this end, inTo December the EC invited 2015, System Transmission of Network European the Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) prepare to a detailed analysis – focusing on the entire gas value chain in all relevant Member States – on the impacts and issues associated with consistency including codifying standard, the Regulation part of already provisions the with and, based2015/703 on the results of the analysis, submit ACER a proposal to to 2.1.3 Gas quality developments 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven the upper Wobbe Index limit be increased that recommended have they OGM from findings the of review (SIUs). In Undertakings Independent Scottish the of one Oban, within utilised and injected gas Wobbe wider of trial field ayear-long involved project The (OGM). Market Gas the up Opening called Project Innovation aNetwork concluded SGN 2016 During review. under now is position This information capacity and Customer 2 connections Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
https://www.sgn.co.uk/oban/ website SGN the on found be can project OGM the about information More further. this to explore by IGEM established been has group to an IGEM standard. An working industry transferred is GS(M)R in contained specification Quality Gas the that recommended have to MJ/m 53.25 3 . In conjunction they
146 Chapter seven
147
discussions, they must submit a valid a submit must they discussions, Regardless of these natural decision points points decision natural these of Regardless the process PARCA is flexible enoughto allow the customer leave to the process at any time before full financial commitmentto the capacity allocation. capacity through applicationPARCA form and payPARCA a application PARCA Our fee. application form can be using by the following link: http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/ Services/Gas-transmission-connections/ PARCA-framework/PARCA-Framework-1/ Customer submits application PARCA and PARCA application fee
Informal assessment completed
Customer approaches National Grid for initial project discussions Phase 0 2.2.1 phases four the Overview of discussion phase bilateral a is phase This with Grid National and customer the between no defined timescales. It allows the customer and National Grid understand to each other’s processes and potential projects before the customer decides whether formallyto enter the process. PARCA If the customer wants to proceed into the process PARCA after these The framework PARCA is split into four logical phases: Phase Phase 0 to This 3. phased decision natural customer the gives structure to whether choose can they where points proceed the to next phase of activities. 2.2 Process Framework The PARCA The PARCA Framework Process Framework The PARCA Appendix 2 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Phase 0 – Bilateral Discussions Bilateral – 0 Phase (no defined timescales) Chapter seven The PARCAThe Framework Process 2 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 application processes, more specifically: through established UNC capacity auction and We also release long-term NTS capacity 1. Phase of start the of months six within works these complete We will NTS. the contractual solution or physical investment in network capability, substitution of capacity, a wholly through (or a combination existing of) be may This capacity. the delivering of ways of anumber explore study, will we desktop our In customers. other from PARCA applications invite aPARCA of window, opening the through and, industry to the information relevant publish will we 1 Phase During begin. will PARCA process the of 1 Phase and successful been application has PARCA their them tell will we customer, the from fee application the of payment and form PARCA application avalid receive we When (up to six months) six to (up contract PARCA and 1–Works Phase Annual EntryandExitcapacityapplicationwindows Figure A2.1 PARCA Exit Capacity Application Enduring Exit PARCA Annual Capacity Entry Auction QSEC Annual Month Up to6months Phase 1 in March in Entry Capacity auction (QSEC) held annually quarterly strips through the Quarterly System in sold is that capacity entry NTS long-term Jan
days within 2business of theapplication confirm receipt National Grid QSEC auction process interaction with the ongoing annual an is there if initiated be not may PARCA capacity entry an 1 of Phase invitation QSEC Feb window bid QSEC Mar
6 businessdays customer within application tothe a competent acceptance of provides formal National Grid QSEC bids of Allocaton Apr May
Exit capacity application window interaction with the ongoing annual an is there if initiated be not may PARCA capacity entry an 1of Phase invitation Exit Jun Phase 1Works initiate National Grid Phase 1PARCA Works: Phase to start not decide we where periods exit capacity application and potential the annual QSEC auction and enduring The timetable below (Figure A2.1) shows 1studies. Phase the of purposes the for aPARCA request to satisfy available be will capacity existing much how clear be not may it because running are processes annual enduring or QSEC the a PARCA while of 1works Phase the to initiate appropriate be not may it such As above. detailed processes requested by our customers through those be also may aPARCA request satisfy partly or to fully used be could that capacity system existing that mind in to bear it’s important So process held annually in July. in annually held process the Enduring Annual NTS Application Exit an enduring (evergreen) product through as sold is that Capacity Exit NTS long-term
window capacity Exit Jul exit capacity Allocation of Aug capacity auction adhoc QSEC Window andan trigger aPARCA National Gridmay business days Within 10 Sep
Oct contract & thePARCA 1 OutputReport with thePhase issue thecustomer National Gridwill Nov
Dec 148 Chapter seven 40 149 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21
20 We guaranteeWe consider to together all PARCA competent deemed and submitted applications within this window. it However, is important note thatto if you wish be to considered for applications, PARCA other alongside capacity in orderensure to we can conduct our window PARCA the within check competency your submit to endeavour please timescales, possible. practically as early as application the shows A2.2) (Figure below diagram The timeline: window PARCA 19 18
17
16
15
14
13 12 Further applications received Further applications received 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
2 1 Closes 40 business days after the window was opened Closes 20 business days after the window was opened received applications exit further no if Closes 40 business days after the window was opened Closes 20 business days after the window was opened if no further entry applications received Opened within days 10 Opened within days 10 http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/ PARCA PARCA exit window closes PARCA PARCA entry window closes PARCA exit window opens PARCA PARCA entry window opens Number Number of days from initiation of Phase 1 Figure A2.2 PARCA window timeline PARCA PARCA window PARCA The purpose of the window PARCA is to considering customers those encourage applying submit to for a PARCA their application at this time, so that we can assess how meet to their capacity need projects. potential other alongside For application any PARCA deemed competent outside a relevant window, PARCA within business 10 days of the initiation of the Phase 1 works of that we will PARCA open (where window a is not already open) either entrya PARCA or exit window. A notice will be published on our webpages, PARCA which can be found using by the following link: Services/Gas-transmission-connections/ PARCA-Framework/ 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven The PARCAThe Framework Process 2 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 PARCA of window: types two are There time. that within received been have PARCA applications further no if days business 20 consecutive after close will but days business consecutive 40 of amaximum for open is PARCA window The Phase 1 output report. the of part as provided timelines the with accordance in capacity the to reserve continue will we needed is reinforcement physical no If the Planning Act or Town & Planning. Country either stage; this at consent planning statutory the start will we capacity, their with customer the to provide needed is NTS the of reinforcement physical that shows report 1output Phase the If output report. 1 Phase the in provided date the from behalf, customer’s the on capacity the reserve will we counter-signed, is contract the When months) 60 to 2–(up Phase triggered. be not will PARCA window additional PARCA an window, entry/exit open an within competent deemed is capacity entry/exit requesting application aPARCA if So time. one any at open be can PARCA window exit and/or entry one Only Up to60months Phase 2
Entry window Entry requests NTS exit capacity. exit NTS requests window Exit capacity. entry NTS requests – triggered if a PARCA aPARCA if –triggered (Reservation Date) of thecustomer capacity onbehalf will reserve the National Grid – triggered if a PARCA aPARCA if –triggered
Phase 2Works initiate the National Grid
security annual financial information and demonstration provides Customer (Phase 3). (Phase phase delivery capacity the begin we and ends contract to,the PARCA committed financially is capacity the and allocated Once party(s). code anominated party, anon-code is customer the or, where customer to the allocated is capacity reserved the when 2ends Phase aPARCA contract). and report options Need Case for investment, a technical (establishes and documents the potential report Case aNeed include will which report, 1output aPhase with customer the provide will we 1works Phase the of completion On allocation date to capacity one monthprior a User(s)atleast party, nominates is anon-code Where customer
(Allocation Date) the customer the capacityto formally allocate National Grid
150 Chapter seven 151
Capacity is delivered (Registration Date)
We will conduct We network reinforcement if this is required Phase 3 Up to 24 months Phase 3 – (up to 24 months) it does not provide you with an NTS connection. Once the capacity is formally allocated, the contractPARCA expires and the capacity delivery Phase 3 is initiated. This is where as such carry necessary out activities, we reinforcing the NTS deliver to the allocated capacity. Please note that on allocation of any reserved NTS capacity, the Uniform Network Code (UNC) user commitment applies. The allows PARCA you reserve to capacity but 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven Appendix 3 Meet the 3 teamsAppendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 of your business requirements. decisions through a understanding deeper keybusiness inform and shape to help the voice of our customers within our business represent and intelligence customer We deliver transportation operations. and streams value all across approach We coordinate a consistent customer ownership of the overall customer experience. customers and stakeholders through relationships with all our gas industry business manage to effectively is role Our Customer Account Gas TeamOur Management 3.1
Gas Customer Account Manager Account Customer Gas Tracy Phipps Manager Account Customer Gas Carrie Bury Manager Account Customer Gas Melissa Albray [email protected] Gas Customer Manager Hayley Burden contact: of point first your be will team Our dedicated customer account management
152 Chapter seven
153
all PARCA applications:- PARCA all Blackburn Eddie Manager Portfolio Contract Gas [email protected] Godden Andrea Manager Commercial Contracting Gas Agnew Belinda Manager Contract Connections Gas Gumbley Claire Manager Contract Connections Gas McGoldrickLouise Manager Contract Connections Gas RichardHounslea Manager Contract Connections Gas Steven Ruane Manager Contract Connections Gas Tennant Jeremy Support Assistant Connections Gas Our dedicated contract management team team management contract dedicated Our and diversions connection, your manage will Our role is manage to and deliver all commercial aspects of your connection, diversion and/ processesor PARCA understanding by and needs. your meet that solutions developing contractual and commercial all deliver We your to modifications including changes network distribution including connection operator associated offtake arrangements, changes and framework changes, agreement manage the UNC customer lifecycle processes obligations. and 3.2 Our Gas Contract Management Team 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven Annual demandfor2015(TWh)–LDZ/NTSsplit Table A4.1 Actual 4 flowsAppendix 2015/16 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 NTS the of forecasts combined The level. LDZ to 0.8% 2015 an at for accurate was forecast 1-year ahead our Table A4.1 that indicates demand. weather-corrected the is normal weather. The result of this calculation between the actual weather and the seasonal difference the of account to take adjusted been has demand forecasts, with demand conditions. Therefore, when comparing actual weather average on based are forecasts Annual 2015/16. year 2015gas year and calendar the during flows peak and annual describes appendix This 0–73 73–732 W Firm >732 MWh Total LDZ Consumption NTS Industrial NTS Power Generation Power NTS Exports Total Total Total Consumption Shrinkage Total System Demand MWh MWh
Actual Demand (TWh) Demand Actual 320 46 160 525 23 168 148 340 865 7 872
Demand (TWh) Weather-Corrected 326 46 161 533 23 168 148 340 873 7 880 was accurate to 4.1%. accurate was to 11.5%. accurate were demand Total system Industrial, NTS Power Generation and Exports operation. and design system of basis categories, consistent with the bands/ load NTS and LDZ of format the in 2015the GTYS in presented forecasts the with year calendar weather-corrected demands during the 2015 and actual of Table A4.1 acomparison provides incorporated in the National Grid Accounts. those from Table different in A4.1 slightly are thresholds, etc. The load band splits shown reconciliation, loads crossing between >73.2 0–73.2 between demand of Actual demands incorporate a reallocation MWh/y firm load bands to allow for for allow to bands load firm MWh/y . Annual demands are presented presented are demands . Annual GTYS GG Demand 316 44 170 530 24 154 123 300 830 6 836 MWh/y and and MWh/y (2014) (2014)
154 Chapter seven 155 mcm) which are both 454 58 396 10 22 95 3 62 7 121 7 69 Highest Daily Daily Highest
mcm on 12 Septembermcm on 12 2015). (2015) mcm; demand: 114.9 Due to linepack changes, there may be a difference between total demand and total supply on the day Figures may not sum exactly due to rounding. 661 104 558 7 24 102 2 86 59 118 8 151 GTYS Capability Supply GG The dayof lowest supply and demand for the gas year was (supply: 7 August2015/16 2016 111.9 – – lower than the lowest supply and demand days gas year (supplyin the and 2014/15 demand both 142
mcm. 367 58 310 7 18 77 0 35 0 105 6 61 Maximum Day Maximum 3 . Conversions to mcm have been made mcm on 2 February 2015). mcm January on 19 2015;
mcm fed a demand of 366.5 The maximum supply refers day for 2015/16 to NTS flows on 20 January 2016 This was the overall highest supply but day, individual terminals may have supplied higher deliveries on other days Supply Capability refers to that published in Gas the 2015 Statement Year Ten using a CV of 39.6MJ/m Total MRS & LNG Storage Sub-total Theddlethorpe Teesside St Fergus St Point of Ayr (Burton Point) Milford Haven Milford Isle of Grain (excl. LDZ inputs) Easington inc. inc. Easington Rough & Langeled Barrow Bacton inc. IUK and BBL Terminal Notes – – – For the 2015/16 gas theyear, day of highestFor the 2015/16 supply the to NTS was also the day of highest demand. This was January 20 when 2016, 367.8 4.1.1 entrySystem – maximum flows day These are both higher than the highest supply and gas demand year days in the 2014/15 (supply: 364.1 demand: 364.9 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Table A4.2 Table Physical NTS entry flows: 20 January 2016 (mcm/d) 4.1 flows and minimum Peak Chapter seven Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 System entry –minimum day flowsSystem entry 4.1.2 Actual 4 flowsAppendix 2015/16 Physical NTSentryflows:7August2016(mcm/d) Table A4.3 – – – Notes Total Storage &LNG MRS Sub-total Theddlethorpe Teesside St Fergus Point) (Burton Ayr of Point Milford Haven inputs) LDZ (excl. Grain of Isle & Langeled Easington inc. Rough Barrow BBL and IUK inc. Bacton Terminal Figures may not sum exactly due torounding. due exactly sum not may Figures day. the on supply total and demand total between adifference be may there changes, tolinepack Due days. other on but individual terminals may have supplied lower deliveries day, supply lowest overall the was 2016. This 7August on flows toNTS 2015/16 for day refers supply minimum The
112 1 111 6 12 37 1 19 0 22 0 15 Maximum Day
156 Chapter seven 157
. 3 1-in-20 Peak Day Firm Demand Conversions to mcm have been made (2015) 1-in-20 1-in-20 (2015) Gone Green Gone Figures may not sum exactly due to rounding. using a CV of 39.6MJ/m forecast was published in Gas the Year 2015 Ten Statement GTYS undiversified GG peak 29 35 22 18 37 42 30 38 28 20 30 21 350 149 499 – – The
Maximum day Maximum 22 26 16 14 27 29 21 27 22 16 23 14 257 110 1 367
The maximum day for gas refers year 2015/16 to 20 January This 2016. was the overall highest demand day, butday, individual LDZs may have seen higher demands on other days. demand. interconnector include loads actual NTS Due to linepack changes, there may be a difference between total demand and total supply on the day.
LDZ Eastern MidlandsEast EastNorth Northern North Thames North West Scotland East South Southern West South MidlandsWest Wales (North & South) LDZ Total Total NTS Usage Fuel Compressor (CFU) Total Table A4.4 Table Physical LDZ demand flows: 20 January 2016 (mcm/d) Physical LDZ demand Notes – – – Table A4.4 shows A4.4 Table actual flows out of the NTS on the maximum demandday of gas year compared the to forecast2015/16 peak flows. 4.1.3 – maximum exit System flows and peak day 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 System exit –minimum day flows 4.1.4 Actual 4 flowsAppendix 2015/16 Physical LDZdemandflows:7August2016(mcm/d) Table A4.5 – – – – Notes Total (CFU) Compressor Fuel Usage NTS Total Total LDZ &South) (North Wales West Midlands South West Southern South East Scotland West North Thames North Northern North East East Midlands Eastern Terminal Figures may not sum exactly due torounding. due exactly sum not may Figures day. the on supply total and demand total between difference asmall be may there changes, tolinepack Due NTS actual loads include interconnector demand. days. other on demands lower seen have may LDZs individual day, but demand 24 7 August 2016 (Demand:114.9 to 2015/16 year refers gas for day minimum The mcm Storage Injection). This was the overall lowest overall the was This Injection). Storage mcm
mcm which includes 91 0 43 48 4 3 2 4 3 5 7 4 4 4 4 3 Maximum Day 158
Chapter seven 2040 2 3 1 43 94 88 26
53 50 589 228 365 455 129 588
159 2039
2 3 3 43 93 88
26 53 50 590 230 366 455 128 587 2038
2 3 5 43 92 87
26 52 49 591 232 367 456 127 586 2037 2 3 7 43 90
87 26 51 48 592 234 368 456
125 585 2036
2 4 9 43 89 86
26 51 46 592 237 369 457 123 583 2035
2 3 43 87 86 26 50
48 13 597 239 369 457 124 584 2034
2 3 43 87 86
26 49 47 17 602 241 371 459 122 585 2033 2 3 43 86
86 26 50 44 21
606 244 374 461 120 585 2032
2 3 44 86 86
26 50 45 25 612 246 375 463 121 588 2031
p rt t re a p rt t 2 3 44 85 86
26 50 46 29 619 248 377 465 122 590 2030
2 3 44 85 86
26 50 54 33 633 250 379 467 130 600 2029 2 3
44 84 86 26 48 63 37
647 253 381 469 137 610 2028
2 3 44 84 86
26 48 83 41 674 256 384 472 157 633 2027
2 4 44 83 86
26 49 88 45 687 260 387 476 163 642 2026 3 4
45 83 87 26 47 49
708 264 391 481 101 175 659 2025 3 4 45 82 90 26 48 97 52 714 268
395 488 171 662
tr a a etere h etere a 2024 ta a ta etere 3 3 45 82 91 26 45 57
735 274 400 494 110 181 678
2023
3 3 45 81 92
26 44 61 755 280 406 500 121 190 694 2022 3
3 46 81 94 26 41
62 778 286 412 508 139 205 716 2021 hr a e
3 3 46 80 95
26 38 65 787 292 418 516 141 204 723 2020
3 3 46 80 97
26 36 68 802 298 424 523 145 207 733 2019
3 3 47 80 96
25 33 72 815 302 428 527 154 212 743 2018
3 3 47 79 96
25 37 75 834 306 432 531 162 224 758 2017
3 3 47 79 95
25 34 79 851 310 436 534 175 233 771 2016 3 4 48 78 24 34 86 920 315 440 100 543 229 287 834
a tr t e hr a e e tr t a e erat er a etere h etere a a etere h
Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (0-73.2 MWh) Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (73.2-732 MWh) Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (> 732 MWh) Total Non-daily metered Total Total Daily Metered Total Local Distribution Zone Shrinkage Total Local Distribution Total Zone NTS Industrial Exports to Ireland NTS Power Generation NTS Consumption NTS Shrinkage Total excluding IUK Total IUK Total including IUK Total Figure A5.1A Slow Progression: Annual demand 5.1 Demand 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas and supply volume scenarios and volume supply Appendix 5 Gas demand Table A5.1A Table Slow Progression: Annual demand Chapter seven and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Gone Green:Annualdemand Figure A5.1B Gone Green:Annualdemand Table A5.1B (0-73.2 MWh) Non-daily metered (73.2-732 MWh) Non-daily metered > 732 MWh) (> Non-daily metered Total Non-dailymetered Total DailyMetered Zone Shrinkage Local Distribution Zone Total LocalDistribution NTS Industrial Exports toIreland NTS PowerGeneration NTS Consumption NTS Shrinkage Total excludingIUK IUK Total includingIUK
er e erat a tr t e hr a e h etere a a etere h
308 921 433 100 536 236 296 835 47 78 23 36 86 3 4 2016 298 856 423 521 191 252 776 46 79 95 24 37 80 3 3 2017 288 821 415 512 164 230 745 46 80 94 25 41 76 3 3 2018 278 786 406 503 144 207 713 46 81 94 25 38 73 3 3 2019 268 746 397 493 115 181 677 46 82 93 25 41 69 3 3 2020 260 703 390 486 149 638 46 84 93 24 42 82 65 3 3
hr a e 2021 252 683 383 479 139 622 46 85 93 24 45 70 61 3 3 2022 244 683 377 473 147 623 46 87 93 24 49 73 60 3 3 2023 235 678 369 463 155 621 46 89 91 25 50 80 57 3 3 ta a etere ta a 2024 a etere h tr a 225 663 361 454 153 611 45 90 91 25 52 77 52 3 4 2025 216 645 354 447 146 597 45 92 91 25 52 70 48 3 4 2026 209 630 347 441 140 585 45 93 92 25 53 62 45 2 4 2027 202 613 341 436 134 573 45 95 92 24 52 57 41 2 3 2028 195 601 336 430 131 565 44 96 92 24 51 56 36 2 3 2029 189 602 330 425 141 569 44 97 92 24 53 64 33 2 3 2030 184 597 325 420 146 569 44 98 92 24 53 68 29 2 p rt t p rt re a 3 2031 179 598 320 414 156 574 43 98 92 24 53 78 25 2 3 2032 174 600 315 410 166 579 43 98 92 24 54 88 21 2 3 2033 170 602 311 404 177 585 42 98 92 24 54 99 17 2 3
2034 166 604 306 399 110 189 591 42 98 91 24 55 13 2 3 2035 162 612 301 394 125 206 603 41 98 90 23 57 2 4 9 2036 158 623 297 388 143 224 616 40 98 90 23 58 2 3 7 2037 155 641 292 383 168 250 636 40 98 89 23 60 2 3 5 2038 151 647 287 377 181 264 644 38 98 88 22 61 2 3 3 2039 160 148 649 283 371 189 273 648 38 97 87 22 63 2 3 1 2040
Chapter seven 2040 2 3 5
49 73 80 27 60
303 809 424 506 207 294 804 161 2039
2 3
49 73 81 27 60 11 302 810 424 506 203 289 799 2038
2 3
49 73 81 27 59 17 301 809 423 506 197 283 792 2037 2 3
49 73 81 27 58 25
301 809 422 505 190 275 784 2036
2 4
49 73 82 27 58 33 301 809 422 506 182 266 776 2035
2 3
49 72 84 27 57 41 301 812 422 509 175 259 771 2034
2 3
49 73 84 27 56 46 300 810 422 509 169 252 764 2033 2 3
49 73 84 27 58 50
300 806 422 508 159 244 756 2032
2 3
49 73 84 27 58 52 300 806 422 508 157 242 754 2031
p rt t re a p rt t 2 3
49 72 85 27 57 55 300 812 421 508 162 246 758 2030
2 3
49 72 85 27 56 57 299 808 421 509 156 240 752 2029 2 3
49 72 86 27 55 58
300 794 421 509 141 222 735 2028
2 3
49 73 86 27 54 61 301 791 423 511 134 215 730 2027
2 4
49 72 86 27 54 63 303 804 425 514 143 224 741 2026 3 4
49 72 87 27 52 66
305 823 427 516 159 238 758 2025 3 4 49 73 87 27 52 67
307 838 429 519 170 248 770
tr a a etere h etere a 2024 ta a ta etere 3 3 49 73 88 26 49 69
309 828 431 521 159 235 759
2023
3 3
49 73 88 26 46 71 311 833 433 524 163 235 762 2022
3 3 49 73
89 26 43 73 313 833 435 527 161 230 760 2021 hr a e
3 3
49 73 90 26 41 75 315 841 438 530 166 233 766 2020
3 3
50 73 91 25 39 77 318 848 440 534 169 234 771 2019
3 3
50 73 91 25 35 78 319 840 441 535 163 223 762 2018
3 3
50 73 92 25 39 80 319 856 442 537 172 236 776 2017
3 3
50 73 93 25 34 82 320 877 443 539 194 253 795 2016 3 4 50 73 98 24 34 85 321 927 443 544 235 294 842
a etere h etere a a etere h hr a e e tr t a e erat er
Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (0-73.2 MWh) Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (73.2-732 MWh) Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (> 732 MWh) Total Non-daily metered Total Total Daily Metered Total Local Distribution Zone Shrinkage Total Local Distribution Total Zone NTS Industrial Exports to Ireland NTS Power Generation NTS Consumption NTS Shrinkage Total excluding IUK Total IUK Total including IUK Total Figure A5.1C No Progression: Annual demand Table A5.1C Table No Progression: Annual demand 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Consumer Power:Annualdemand Figure A5.1D Consumer Power:Annualdemand Table A5.1D (0-73.2 MWh) Non-daily metered (73.2-732 MWh) Non-daily metered > 732 MWh) (> Non-daily metered Total Non-dailymetered Total DailyMetered Zone Shrinkage Local Distribution Zone Total LocalDistribution NTS Industrial Exports toIreland NTS PowerGeneration NTS Consumption NTS Shrinkage Total excludingIUK IUK Total includingIUK
er e erat a tr t e hr a e h etere a a etere h
320 938 449 101 553 233 294 851 53 77 24 37 87 3 4 2016 318 908 449 549 208 269 822 54 78 97 25 37 86 3 3 2017 316 890 449 548 187 252 804 54 79 96 25 40 86 3 3 2018 314 861 448 546 163 224 773 55 80 95 25 36 87 3 3 2019 309 825 446 543 128 191 737 56 81 94 25 38 87 3 3 2020 304 789 441 537 162 702 56 81 93 25 39 97 86 3 3
hr a e 2021 300 774 438 534 151 688 56 82 93 25 44 81 86 3 3 2022 296 780 435 530 159 693 57 82 93 25 47 87 87 3 3 2023 291 789 431 526 172 702 57 83 93 25 50 96 87 3 3 ta a etere ta a 2024 a etere h tr a 287 782 427 523 164 690 57 84 93 26 55 83 93 3 4 2025 284 761 426 519 142 665 57 84 91 26 54 62 97 3 4 2026 282 755 424 516 137 656 57 85 90 26 56 55 99 2 4 2027 279 754 422 514 134 651 102 57 86 90 26 56 52 2 3 2028 277 748 420 512 130 645 102 57 86 90 26 57 47 2 3 2029 275 746 419 511 128 643 103 57 87 90 26 60 42 2 3 2030 273 746 418 511 130 644 102 57 87 90 26 61 43 2 p rt t p rt re a 3 2031 271 735 417 510 119 633 103 57 88 91 27 62 30 2 3 2032 270 734 416 509 119 632 102 58 89 91 27 62 31 2 3 2033 268 737 415 509 126 639 58 90 92 27 60 39 98 2 3
2034 266 728 414 508 122 633 58 90 92 27 62 33 95 2 3 2035 265 718 414 508 117 628 58 91 92 27 64 26 89 2 4 2036 264 715 413 507 118 629 58 91 92 27 65 26 86 2 3 2037 263 707 412 506 115 625 58 92 92 27 67 22 82 2 3 2038 261 703 411 506 116 625 58 92 92 27 68 20 78 2 3 2039 162 260 700 410 505 118 626 58 92 92 27 70 20 74 2 3 2040 Chapter seven 163
ta ta er e erat er 2020 3 3 51 77 92 26 39 77
308 436 531 125 190 724 801
2019
3 3
50 76 93 25 36 78 312 438 534 151 212 749 827 2018 3 3 49 76 93 25 39 80 316 441 537 165 229 769 849
2017 re a p rt t
h 3 3
49 75 94 25 35 82 319 443 540 192 252 795 877 2016 3 4 48 74 99 24 35 85 322 444 546 232 290 840 926 was undertaken in September in preparation 2016 Outlook of our Winter 2016 tr a
h MWh) : Annual demand MWh) MWh) 1
h hr a e hr a e . This updated forecast is included throughout Appendix 5. Appendix throughout included is forecast updated This .
An update Scenarios Energy to the Future 2016 Report Non-daily metered (0-73.2 Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (73.2-732 Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (> 732 Non-daily metered Total Non-daily metered Total Total Daily Metered Total Local Distribution Zone Shrinkage Total Local Distribution Zone Total NTS Industrial Exports to Ireland NTS Power Generation NTS Consumption NTS Shrinkage Total excluding IUK Total IUK Total including IUK Total 1 Figure A5.1E Updated Forecast: Annual demand Table A5.1E Table Updated Forecast 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven Figure A5.1F Slow Progression:1-in-20peakdayundiversifieddemand and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Slow Progression:1-in-20peakdayundiversifieddemand Table A5.1F e n Total Total NTS Exports viaIUK Moffat Exports via Generation NTS Power NTS Industrial Total LDZ South West Southern South East North Thames Eastern Wales South Wales North West Midlands East Midlands North East North West Northern Scotland National p rt a at p rt ta a tr t e 348.4 400.5 246.8 472.0 210.8 331.9 5634 1687 1325 3947 229.9 311.7 435.4 404.9 317.5 194.3 42.7 231 131 0 2015/16 347.3 398.0 245.2 468.0 209.3 329.0 5581 1658 1253 3923 229.2 310.5 433.0 403.6 315.9 190.8 43.0 274 131
0 2016/17 344.4 394.4 242.9 463.6 207.1 326.7 5544 1656 1228 3888 227.9 308.3 429.4 400.2 313.5 187.1 42.5 296 131
0 2017/18 340.8 390.3 240.6 459.0 204.8 323.9 5543 1689 1228 3854 226.2 306.2 426.0 396.6 310.9 186.7 42.0 311 150
0 2018/19 335.9 384.5 237.3 452.6 202.4 320.2 5493 1689 1207 3804 223.5 302.6 420.8 391.3 306.9 184.8 41.4 339 143 2019/20 0 332.9 380.9 235.2 448.6 200.6 316.3 5525 1755 1261 3770 221.5 299.9 417.4 388.1 304.4 182.7 41.1 351 143 2020/21 0 328.4 375.5 232.0 442.4 197.9 312.2 5580 1860 1352 3719 218.4 296.2 412.3 383.2 300.4 179.8
40.5 2021/22 365 143 0 2022/23 323.7 370.0 228.9 436.0 195.2 307.7 5467 1800 1283 3667 215.6 292.4 406.6 378.0 296.2 176.9 39.9 367 150 0
2023/24 318.2 363.5 224.9 428.2 191.7 302.7 5321 1717 1173 3603 212.0 287.4 399.3 371.4 291.0 173.8 39.2 394 150 0 2024/25 314.6 359.3 222.7 423.9 189.8 299.4 5258 1690 1136 3569 210.0 286.0 395.5 368.0 288.3 172.3 38.9 404 150 0 tr a 2025/26 311.1 355.4 220.6 419.6 188.0 296.2 5076 1545 3531 207.7 282.2 391.2 364.0 285.2 170.7 38.5 404 150 991 0 2026/27 308.4 352.3 218.8 415.9 186.3 293.2 5044 1545 3499 206.0 279.3 387.9 361.0 282.7 169.1 38.3 404 150 991
0 2027/28 304.7 347.9 216.3 410.7 184.1 289.9 4871 1428 3442 203.7 260.4 383.4 357.0 279.4 167.1 37.8 404 150 874
0 2028/29 303.6 346.6 215.4 408.6 182.8 287.9 4836 1428 3408 203.3 259.8 361.6 355.9 278.4 166.1 37.7 404 150 874 2029/30 0 301.5 344.3 214.2 406.0 181.5 286.3 4704 1318 3386 202.3 258.2 359.2 353.7 276.6 165.1 37.5 404 150 764 2030/31 0
299.8 342.1 213.2 403.9 181.0 284.9 4648 1279 3369 201.4 257.0 357.1 352.0 275.3 164.3
37.4 2031/32 404 150 725 0 er e erat 2032/33 297.3 339.3 211.9 400.9 179.7 282.6 4550 1208 3343 199.8 254.8 353.9 349.1 273.0 163.3 37.2 404 150 654 0 2033/34 297.0 339.0 211.7 400.1 179.3 281.5 4547 1208 3339 199.8 254.7 353.7 349.3 273.0 162.7 37.2 404 150 654 0
2034/35 295.3 337.0 210.8 397.7 178.3 280.0 4509 1188 3322 199.2 253.6 351.7 347.6 271.5 161.9 37.1 404 150 634 0 2035/36 293.8 335.1 209.6 395.1 177.0 278.4 4490 1188 3302 198.4 252.2 349.2 345.6 270.0 160.9 37.0 404 150 634 0 2036/37 291.3 332.3 208.2 391.9 175.5 276.7 4465 1188 3278 197.1 250.5 346.4 343.2 268.0 159.9 36.8 404 150 634
0 2037/38 291.5 332.5 208.8 392.6 176.4 276.5 4472 1188 197.6 251.3 347.0 344.1 268.8 160.1 3284 37.0 404 150 634 0 2038/39 291.0 331.8 208.6 391.7 176.0 275.9 4466 1188 197.5 250.9 346.2 343.7 268.3 159.7 3278 37.0 404 150 634 2039/40 0 290.1 330.7 208.1 390.3 175.4 275.0 4457 1188 197.0 250.5 345.4 343.2 267.6 159.0 3269 37.0 404 150 634 2040/41 0 288.1 328.2 206.8 387.3 174.3 273.1 4435 1188 196.1 249.2 342.9 341.0 265.8 158.2 3248 36.9 404 150 634 0 164 289.1 329.4 207.3 388.3 174.1 273.6 4446 1188 197.0 250.2 344.2 342.5 267.0 158.5 3258 36.9 404 150 634 0 Chapter seven 0 355 909 150 404 94.8 29.7 3441 212.4 139.4 306.5 162.0 257.4 226.1 213.2 271.6 266.3 197.7 154.4 2532 165 0 355 909 150 404 95.0 29.9 3444 213.3 140.2 307.1 162.6 257.6 226.2 213.0 271.5 266.2 197.7 154.4 2535
0 2040/41 355 909 150 404 97.2 30.5 3501 218.4 143.3 314.1 166.6 263.7 231.3 217.5 277.5 271.9 201.6 157.6 2591
0 2039/40 355 909 150 404 31.1 3583 222.3 145.7 319.6 169.7 268.3 235.3 138.0 220.9 281.8 276.0 204.7 160.2 2673
2038/39 0
389 943 150 404
31.6 3655 225.9 147.8 324.2 172.3 272.4 238.7 139.7 223.8 285.7 279.7 207.5 162.5 2712 2037/38 0 425 979 150 404 31.8 2738 3718 228.9 148.7 327.3 174.1 275.4 241.5 140.6 225.7 288.5 282.5 209.3 164.1
2036/37 0
425 979 150 404 32.4 2791 3770 233.1 151.5 333.8 177.6 281.0 246.5 142.6 229.8 293.9 288.1 213.2 167.1 2035/36 0
487 150 404
32.9 2833 1041 3875 236.8 154.1 339.2 180.6 285.4 250.1 144.5 233.1 298.3 292.8 216.3 169.3 2034/35 0
577 150 404 33.3 2873 1131 4004 240.3 156.2 344.0 183.0 289.6 253.7 146.1 236.3 302.4 297.1 219.2 171.4 2033/34 0
659 150 404 33.5 2900 1213 4113 243.5 157.9 347.4 184.7 292.5 256.2 147.6 238.2 304.7 299.9 221.2 173.0 2032/33 er e erat er
0
747 150 404 2031/32 34.0 2954 1301 4255 248.2 160.5 353.7 187.9 298.0 261.3 149.6 242.6 310.5 306.2 225.4 176.2
0 2030/31 783 150 404 34.4 3000 1337 4337 252.1 162.4 359.3 190.7 303.2 265.6 151.4 246.3 315.3 311.7 228.9 178.8
0
2029/30 850 150 404 34.7 3043 1404 4447 255.8 164.8 364.6 193.3 307.9 269.8 153.0 249.6 319.6 316.8 232.1 181.3 2028/29 0 891 150 404 35.1 3084 1445 4528 260.2 167.4 369.7 195.9 312.0 273.2 155.0 252.6 323.2 321.4 234.8 183.1
2027/28 0
892 150 404 35.7 3147 1446 4593 265.6 170.7 377.6 199.7 318.8 279.0 157.8 257.7 329.5 328.5 239.6 186.9 2026/27 0 950 150 404 36.1 3200 1504 4705 270.7 173.5 384.0 202.9 324.5 283.9 160.1 261.9 334.7 334.8 243.5 189.9
2025/26 tr a tr a 0
150 404 36.6 3278 1044 1598 4876 276.1 176.5 391.3 206.4 331.0 289.8 162.6 266.9 341.1 342.4 264.0 193.6 2024/25 0
150 394 37.1 3356 1056 1600 4956 281.3 179.3 398.3 209.8 337.5 295.3 164.9 271.2 346.6 369.2 268.6 196.9 2023/24 0
150 367 37.8 3433 1056 1573 5006 287.4 183.4 407.6 214.5 345.4 302.0 168.0 277.4 354.4 378.4 275.2 201.3 2022/23
0
143 365 2021/22 38.3 3485 1020 1529 5014 292.3 186.3 414.1 217.7 351.1 306.9 170.5 281.5 359.5 384.3 277.9 204.1
0 2020/21 143 351 38.9 3540 1106 1600 5139 296.8 189.2 421.1 221.2 357.1 311.9 173.3 285.8 364.8 390.0 282.0 207.5
0 2019/20 339 143 39.4 1175 1657 5248 3591 175.8 289.6 369.5 396.0 285.8 210.5 302.3 191.8 427.0 224.2 362.5 316.5
2018/19 0
311 150
40.3 1224 1685 5367 3682 179.5 296.9 378.9 406.3 292.6 215.6 309.5 196.2 438.4 230.1 372.6 325.1 2017/18 0 296 132 41.1 1228 1656 5412 3756 182.1 302.7 386.5 414.1 297.8 219.7 315.6 200.5 447.7 234.7 380.7 332.2
2016/17
0
274 131
42.0 1253 1658 5489 3830 188.0 308.3 393.8 422.6 303.1 223.5 321.1 204.6 456.8 239.3 388.3 338.7 2015/16 0 231 131 42.3 1325 1687 5593 193.1 314.1 400.6 431.0 308.3 227.4 3906 328.6 208.8 467.0 244.2 396.2 344.5 ta a tr t e tr t a ta p rt at a
e n e n National Scotland Exports via IUK NTS Total Total NTS Industrial NTS Power Generation Exports via Moffat North Thames South East Southern South West LDZ Total West Midlands West North Wales South Wales Eastern Northern North West North East East Midlands Figure A5.1G Gone Green: 1-in-20 peak day undiversified demand 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas : 1-in-20 peak day undiversified demand Gone Green: 1-in-20 peak day undiversified Table A5.1G Table Chapter seven No Progression:1-in-20peakdayundiversifieddemand Figure A5.1H and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 No Progression:1-in-20peakdayundiversifieddemand Table A5.1H Total LDZ South West Southern South East North Thames Eastern Wales South Wales North West Midlands East Midlands North East North West Northern Scotland National e n Total Total NTS IUK Exports via Moffat Exports via Generation NTS Power NTS Industrial p rt a at p rt ta a tr t e 5728 1776 1250 3952 230.3 311.4 435.9 404.9 317.7 194.4 349.1 401.5 247.5 473.1 211.1 332.3 42.8 394 131 0 2015/16 232.0 313.2 437.1 407.6 319.3 193.3 351.8 403.1 248.3 473.8 211.7 333.2 5715 1747 1212 3968 43.5 404 131
0
2016/17 232.3 313.1 436.1 407.0 319.1 189.9 351.2 402.3 247.7 472.6 210.8 333.2 5715 1756 1221 3959 43.3 404 131
0 2017/18 232.4 313.2 436.3 406.4 318.8 189.4 350.3 401.2 247.3 471.5 209.9 333.0 5622 1669 1122 3953 43.1 404 143
0 2018/19 231.3 311.5 434.0 403.6 316.9 188.1 347.8 398.1 245.5 468.2 208.8 331.5 5560 1632 1085 3928 42.8 404 143 2019/20 0 231.1 311.1 433.9 403.6 316.8 187.1 347.5 397.6 245.4 467.8 208.6 330.1 5667 1744 1197 3923 42.8 404 143 2020/21 0 229.8 309.6 431.6 401.5 315.1 185.6 345.7 395.2 244.0 465.1 207.3 328.7 5667 1766 1218 3902
42.5 2021/22 404 143 0 2022/23 228.8 308.2 429.4 399.5 313.5 184.4 343.9 393.1 242.8 462.5 206.1 326.7 5635 1754 1200 3881 42.2 404 150 0
2023/24 226.9 305.4 425.0 395.9 310.7 182.7 340.9 389.6 240.7 458.3 204.1 324.4 5655 1809 1255 3846 41.8 404 150 0 2024/25 226.7 305.3 424.9 395.4 310.3 182.1 340.1 388.5 240.3 457.6 203.7 323.6 5571 1731 1177 3840 41.8 404 150 0 tr a 2025/26 225.7 303.8 423.0 393.6 308.8 181.2 338.6 386.9 239.5 455.8 203.0 322.2 5554 1731 1177 3824 41.6 404 150 0 2026/27 224.8 302.5 421.2 392.1 307.5 180.3 337.4 385.3 238.7 454.0 202.1 320.7 5443 1635 1081 3808 41.5 404 150
0 2027/28 223.1 300.2 418.0 389.1 304.9 178.7 334.7 382.1 236.8 450.2 200.4 318.5 5479 1701 1147 3778 41.2 404 150
0 2028/29 223.4 300.0 417.2 389.2 304.9 178.1 334.7 382.1 236.7 449.6 199.8 317.5 5480 1706 1152 3774 41.1 404 150 2029/30 0 223.1 299.6 416.9 388.3 304.1 177.5 333.9 381.3 236.3 448.8 199.1 317.3 5473 1706 1152 3767 41.1 404 150 2030/31 0
223.1 299.6 417.0 388.3 304.1 177.3 333.8 380.8 236.2 448.6 199.4 317.3 5506 1740 1186 3767
41.1 2031/32 404 150 0 er e erat 2032/33 222.5 298.7 415.6 387.1 303.1 176.7 332.8 379.9 235.8 447.7 199.0 316.5 5496 1740 1186 3756 41.0 404 150 0 2033/34 223.6 300.1 397.5 389.3 304.7 176.7 334.4 381.5 236.7 449.3 199.5 317.0 5491 1740 1186 3752 41.2 404 150 0
2034/35 224.1 300.4 417.5 389.5 304.8 176.6 334.6 381.7 236.9 449.2 199.6 317.3 5357 1583 1088 3773 41.2 345 150 0 2035/36 224.4 301.3 417.4 389.5 304.9 176.5 334.6 381.7 236.8 448.9 199.2 317.3 5284 1510 1015 3774 41.2 345 150 0 2036/37 223.5 299.4 415.7 387.5 303.3 175.6 332.8 379.6 235.8 446.7 198.0 316.5 5265 1510 1015 3755 41.1 345 150
0 2037/38 224.4 299.9 417.2 389.1 304.6 176.0 333.9 380.9 236.7 448.5 199.1 316.8 3768 5474 1706 1152 41.3 404 150 0 2038/39 224.9 284.6 418.0 389.8 305.1 176.0 334.5 381.3 237.1 449.0 199.4 317.3 3758 5464 1706 1152 41.4 404 150 2039/40 0 225.2 285.3 418.7 390.3 305.4 175.9 334.8 381.7 237.3 449.2 199.4 317.6 3762 5502 1740 1186 41.4 404 150 2040/41 0 225.0 284.7 417.6 389.1 304.5 175.5 334.0 380.6 236.7 447.7 198.8 316.8 3752 5492 1740 1186 41.4 404 150 0 166 226.0 286.0 419.2 390.9 305.9 175.8 335.2 382.1 237.5 449.2 198.9 317.6 3766 5505 1740 1186 41.5 404 150 0 Chapter seven 0 324 404 878 150 42.3 4484 309.1 194.6 435.5 235.0 370.4 325.0 133.1 298.4 383.6 379.6 278.1 221.4 3606 167 0 398 404 952 150 42.3 4547 308.6 194.7 434.5 234.5 369.1 324.0 132.8 297.1 382.1 378.3 277.1 220.5 3596
0 2040/41 398 404 952 150 42.5 4572 310.5 196.0 437.7 236.0 371.7 326.3 133.8 299.4 384.9 381.1 278.8 221.7 3620
0 2039/40 461 404 150 42.6 1015 4644 311.2 196.6 439.1 236.5 372.7 327.1 134.5 300.1 385.6 382.0 279.5 222.2 3630
2038/39 0
461 404 150
42.6 1015 4649 311.4 197.0 439.8 236.7 373.2 327.5 134.9 300.6 386.0 382.7 279.9 222.4 3635 2037/38 0 496 404 150 42.4 3660 1050 4710 311.0 195.8 438.0 235.7 372.1 326.6 173.3 299.4 384.5 381.4 278.8 221.6
2036/37 0
529 404 150 42.6 3683 1083 4766 312.2 197.2 440.9 236.9 374.5 328.9 174.3 301.3 386.9 384.0 280.4 222.8 2035/36 0
569 404 150
42.6 3691 1123 4814 312.8 198.0 442.2 237.5 375.3 329.4 174.9 301.9 387.7 385.2 281.1 222.9 2034/35 0
515 404 150 42.6 3697 1069 4766 313.1 198.3 443.2 237.6 376.0 330.1 175.2 302.5 388.3 386.1 281.4 222.9 2033/34 0
582 404 150 42.4 3691 1136 4827 313.4 198.3 442.8 237.0 375.3 329.5 175.5 301.6 386.9 385.3 280.8 222.3 2032/33 er e erat er
0
582 404 150 2031/32 42.5 3673 1136 4809 315.2 199.2 445.1 237.8 377.5 331.5 137.7 303.5 389.2 388.1 282.6 223.5
0 2030/31 582 404 150 42.5 3683 1136 4819 316.0 199.3 446.3 238.3 378.9 332.6 138.2 304.2 390.2 389.6 283.3 223.9
0
2029/30 584 404 150 42.5 3696 1138 4834 316.8 200.2 447.9 238.8 380.4 334.0 139.0 305.2 391.5 391.4 284.2 224.4 2028/29 0 626 404 150 42.4 3702 1180 4882 318.2 201.0 449.0 239.0 380.9 334.3 139.5 305.5 391.7 392.2 284.3 224.1
2027/28 0
683 404 150 42.7 3748 1237 4985 320.6 202.6 452.9 240.6 384.2 337.1 141.0 307.9 394.6 395.7 302.3 225.7 2026/27 0 404 745 150 42.6 3798 1299 5097 322.0 203.3 454.2 241.0 385.4 338.0 180.7 308.6 395.4 397.2 303.7 226.1
2025/26 tr a tr a 0
404 150 42.6 3836 1019 1573 5409 323.6 204.0 456.1 241.5 387.2 339.7 181.6 309.9 397.2 419.7 306.0 227.0 2024/25 0
394 150 42.7 3856 1055 1599 5455 325.7 205.0 458.6 242.6 389.9 342.0 182.6 311.3 399.0 422.3 306.2 228.0 2023/24 0
367 150 43.1 3902 1055 1572 5474 329.1 207.6 464.4 245.3 394.7 345.9 184.8 315.1 403.8 428.0 309.9 230.5 2022/23
0
365 143 2021/22 43.3 3930 1060 1569 5499 331.7 209.1 467.9 246.8 397.8 348.5 186.1 317.3 406.5 431.4 311.9 231.8
0 2020/21 351 143 43.6 3959 1178 1672 5630 333.9 210.7 471.6 248.4 401.0 351.0 188.0 319.5 409.0 434.5 313.9 233.4
0 2019/20 339 143 43.7 1227 1709 5690 3981 189.6 321.0 410.8 437.2 315.7 234.7 336.7 211.8 474.1 249.5 403.4 352.9
2018/19 0
311 150
44.0 1228 1689 5705 4016 191.4 323.7 414.3 441.5 318.1 236.3 338.8 213.3 478.6 251.6 407.5 356.3 2017/18 0 296 132 44.1 1228 1656 5674 4018 192.2 323.7 414.4 440.9 317.7 236.0 338.7 214.0 479.3 251.7 408.3 356.9
2016/17 0 274 131 44.2
1253 1658 5680 4022 195.2 323.6 414.3 441.5 317.4 235.4 338.4 214.5 480.1 252.0 408.7 356.9
2015/16 0 231 131 43.3 1325 1687 5677 195.6 320.8 409.6 439.3 314.5 232.6 3990 335.7 213.0 477.5 250.0 405.5 352.8 ta a tr t e tr t a ta p rt at a
e n e n Exports via IUK NTS Total Total NTS Industrial NTS Power Generation Exports via Moffat North Thames South East Southern South West LDZ Total West Midlands West North Wales South Wales Eastern Northern North West North East East Midlands National Scotland Figure A5.1I Consumer Power: 1-in-20 peak day undiversified demand 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas : 1-in-20 peak day undiversified demand Consumer Power: 1-in-20 peak day undiversified Table A5.1I Table Chapter seven Updated Forecast:1-in-20peakdayundiversifieddemand Figure A5.1J Updated Forecast:1-in-20peakdayundiversifieddemand Table A5.1J supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 e n Total Total NTS Exports viaIUK Exports viaMoffat NTS PowerGeneration NTS Industrial Total LDZ South West Southern South East North Thames Eastern Wales South Wales North West Midlands East Midlands North East North West Northern Scotland National ta
tr a 1324.5 3961.5 231.0 131.4 230.9 312.2 437.2 405.7 318.6 194.5 350.0 402.5 248.1 474.3 211.6 333.0 5648 1687 43.0 0 2015/16 1274.2 3974.1 273.7 131.4 232.3 313.7 437.4 408.2 319.7 194.1 352.3 403.8 248.7 474.5 212.0 333.8 5653 1679 43.6 0 2016/17 er e erat 1274.2 3955.0 296.3 131.8 232.0 312.7 435.0 406.6 318.6 191.0 350.8 401.9 247.5 472.0 210.7 333.0 5657 1702 43.2 2017/18 0 1228.1 3935.4 310.9 143.7 231.2 311.8 433.9 404.7 317.1 189.8 348.7 399.3 246.2 469.2 209.1 331.7 5618 1683
43.0 2018/19 0
1228.1 3898.6 2019/20 339.0 137.1 229.3 309.1 431.7 400.8 314.0 187.0 345.1 394.8 243.6 464.2 207.3 329.2 5603 1704 42.5 0
2020/21 1171.1 3880.3 350.5 137.1 228.3 307.7 430.2 399.6 312.8 184.2 343.6 393.0 242.7 462.3 206.4 327.0 5539 1659 42.3 0 p rt a at p rt 168 Chapter seven 9 5 0 16 84 819 294 781 404 414 334 588 4455 3652 4446 3929 3929 3139 2719 1797 169 9 5 0 16 83 810 305 792 404 413 333 583 4433 3640 4435 3928 3928 3127 2708 1792
9 5 0 16 84 2040/41 817 300 788 404 413 335 577 4462 3661 4457 3945 3945 3147 2729 1817
9 6 0 2039/40 16 84 816 291 779 404 411 336 568 4472 3671 4466 3947 3947 3158 2741 1837
2038/39 6 0 15 10 84
822 283 771 404 408 336 558
4482 3675 4472 3943 3943 3162 2748 1854 2037/38 6 0
16 10 84
796 292 780 404 403 335 546 4450 3670 4465 3946 3946 3156 2747 1867 2036/37 9 6 0
16 84
807 293 781 404 404 337 541 4485 3693 4490 3971 3971 3180 2771 1892 2035/36 9 6 0
15 84
791 295 783 404 403 338 539 4488 3713 4509 3992 3992 3200 2791 1913 2034/35 9 6 0
16 84
799 301 789 404 404 338 536 4513 3730 4547 4014 4014 3216 2806 1932 2033/34 Exports Ireland to
6 0
17 10 83 832 293 781 404 403 337 529 2032/33 4547 3733 4550 4008 4008 3218 2809 1943
9 6 0
20 83 932 342 829 404 403 339 529 2031/32 4674 3762 4648 4084 4084 3245 2836 1968
9 7 0
19 83 2030/31 909 343 830 404 402 340 526 4669 3778 4704 4103 4103 3263 2854 1987 Undiversified Total Undiversified
9 7 0 2029/30 72 83
451 938 404 402 342 523
4785 3852 1006 4836 4230 4230 3283 2875 2009 2028/29 7 0 77 10 83
973 466 953 404 422 341 516
4770 3874 4871 4263 4263 3301 2872 2014 2027/28 0 7 95 10 83 576 404 440 343 514
4902 3941 1056 5044 4422 4422 1063 3349 2903 2046 2026/27 Industrial NTS 0 7 Non-daily metered MWh) (73.2–732
88 10 83
528 404 440 345 510 4890 3971 1007 5076 4411 4411 1015 3387 2940 2085 Total dailyTotal metered 2025/26 0 7 10 83
107 594 404 440 347 509
4969 4035 1041 5258 4522 4522 1080 3432 2985 2130 2024/25 0 9 7
82
121 608 394 438 348 504 4955 4075 1001 5321 4562 4562 1083 3470 3024 2171 2023/24
0 9 7 NTS Shrinkage NTS
82 166 709 367 440 354 506 2022/23 5041 4163 1043 5467 4706 4706 1157 3540 3093 2232 0 9 7
82
200 978 756 365 442 357 505 2021/22 5031 4253 5580 4809 4809 1203 3597 3147 2285
0 9 7
82 2020/21 195 892 727 351 444 359 503 4988 4291 5525 4824 4824 1159 3655 3204 2341
0 9 8
2019/20 81
218 893 754 339 443 361 500 5011 4336 5493 4871 4871 1174 3689 3238 2377 2018/19 0 9 8 80 234 910 761 311 444 366 498
5045 4369 5543 4896 4896 1152 3735 3284 2420
2017/18 0 9 8
79
281 851 791 296 444 368 495 4999 4429 5544 4939 4939 1167 3763 3311 2448 2016/17 0 8 11 77 348 920 826 274 446 373 493 5085 4512 5581 4991 4991 1177 3803 3348 2482
2015/16 0 8
12 74 693 231 443 372 483 5187 4844 1036 5634 5187 5187 1036 1341 3835 3384 2528
Local Distribution Zone Shrinkage NTS Power Generation Non-daily metered (0–73.2 MWh) Non-daily metered MWh) 732 (>
e n e n Diversified Total + Diversified Low Power High power Total + Diversified High Power Total Undiversified Total Low power IUK including IUK Total NTS Shrinkage excluding IUK Total NTS Consumption NTS Power Generation Exports to Ireland NTS Industrial Local Distribution Zone Shrinkage LDZ Total Total Daily Metered Total Total Non-daily Total metered Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (> 732 MWh) Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (73.2-732 MWh) Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (0-73.2 MWh) Diversified Peak Figure A5.1K Slow Progression: 1-in-20 peak day diversified demand 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Table A5.1K Table : 1-in-20 peak day diversified demand Slow Progression: 1-in-20 peak day diversified Chapter seven and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Gone Green:1-in-20peakdaydiversifieddemand Figure A5.1L Gone Green:1-in-20peakdaydiversifieddemand Table A5.1L e n Low Power Diversified Total + High Power Diversified Total + High power Low power Total Undiversified Total includingIUK IUK Total excludingIUK NTS Shrinkage NTS Consumption Generation NTS Power Exports toIreland NTS Industrial Total LDZ Zone Shrinkage Local Distribution Total DailyMetered metered Total Non-daily 732 MWh) (> Non-daily metered (73.2-732 MWh) Non-daily metered (0-73.2 MWh) Non-daily metered Peak Diversified er e erat a tr t e hr a e h etere a a etere h etere a
4806 5151 1039 5593 5151 5151 1343 1039 3797 3345 2494 444 484 367 693 231
12 73 8 0 2015/16 4445 5031 5489 4980 4980 1257 3712 3258 2400 446 493 365 958 372 907 274 11 76 8 0 2016/17 4304 4887 5412 4815 4815 1176 3629 3176 2315 445 499 362 874 291 802 296 78 8 0 9 2017/18 4155 4816 5367 4688 4688 1122 3557 3102 2235 447 505 363 860 199 733 311 79 8 0 9 2018/19 4070 4793 5248 4626 4626 1157 3460 3005 2138 447 508 360 906 184 740 339
78 2019/20 8 0 9 3971 4718 5139 4461 4461 1042 3409 2952 2072 450 519 361 871 124 613 351 2020/21 78 7 0 9
3884 4679 5014 4271 4271 3351 2892 2005 2021/22 452 528 359 874 911 467 365 78 79 7 0 9
3825 4670 5006 4201 4201 3298 2838 1944 2022/23 454 537 357 917 894 449 367 78 72 hr a e 7 0 9 2023/24 3762 4675 4956 4148 4148 3213 2751 1856 454 543 352 981 926 454 394 78 68 7 0 9 2024/25 3709 4752 4876 4135 4135 3146 2702 1792 1113 437 557 352 979 497 404 79 10 71 7 0 2025/26 ta a etere ta a 3642 4716 4705 4031 4031 3081 2649 1728 1142 425 569 352 940 457 404 79 10 68 a etere h 7 0 tr a 2026/27 3588 4620 4593 3963 3963 3031 2596 1666 1096 428 580 351 922 439 404 79 10 64 7 0 2027/28 3520 4574 4528 3879 3879 2967 2532 1599 1115 428 586 347 902 419 404 79 10 61 0 7 2028/29 3480 4461 4447 3797 3797 2929 2493 1552 1040 430 596 345 859 376 404 78 59 2029/30 0 7 9
Undiversified Undiversified Total 3402 4403 4337 3756 3756 2889 2451 1504 1023 431 605 342 858 376 404 2030/31 78 22 0 7 9 3361 4391 4255 3778 3778 2843 2404 1457 1056 2031/32 433 608 339 926 444 404 78 27 0 6 9 3314 4304 4113 3722 3722 2790 2351 1411 1024 2032/33 432 606 334 922 441 404 10 78 33 0 6
p rt t p rt re a 2033/34 3306 4252 4004 3756 3756 2764 2325 1382 432 610 333 997 983 501 404 78 51 0 9 6 2034/35 3287 4155 3875 3715 3715 2726 2289 1349 430 610 330 938 980 498 404 78 70 0 9 6 2035/36 3257 4103 3770 3696 3696 2683 2250 1316 1003 428 608 326 930 522 404 77 84 0 9 6 2036/37 3225 4090 3718 3690 3690 2633 2203 1278 1047 425 605 319 967 567 404 103 10 76 0 6 2037/38 3251 4136 3655 3731 3731 2606 2175 1252 1041 1115 426 608 314 635 404 156 10 75 0 6 2038/39 3291 4103 3583 3748 3748 2569 2139 1222 1046 1170 425 608 308 692 404 235
74 2039/40 0 9 6 3366 4126 3501 3806 3806 2523 2135 1214 1117 1273 382 616 305 797 404 356
2040/41 73 0 9 5 3355 4063 3444 3762 3762 2467 2085 1179 1111 1285 377 611 295 810 404 404 71 0 9 5 170 3423 4070 3441 3772 3772 2466 2086 1179 1119 1296 375 613 294 821 404 472 71 0 9 5 Chapter seven 9 5 0 85 394 404 943 392 452 381 4522 1261 5388 5505 5071 5071 1432 3629 3232 2399 171 9 5 0 85 371 404 940 392 450 380 4485 1246 5360 5492 5053 5053 1428 3616 3218 2388
9 5 0 85 2040/41 346 404 922 395 453 383 4468 1239 5361 5502 5045 5045 1412 3624 3223 2388
9 6 0 2039/40 86 318 404 904 396 452 383 4438 1229 5348 5464 5024 5024 1394 3621 3219 2385
2038/39 6 0 10 85
276 404 860 412 449 381
4391 1209 5324 5474 4975 4975 1349 3616 3199 2368 2037/38 6 0
10 85
255 404 812 412 448 380 4362 1170 5277 5265 4919 4919 1301 3609 3191 2363 2036/37 9 6 0
85
244 404 791 415 451 383 4376 1157 5289 5284 4923 4923 1281 3633 3213 2379 2035/36 9 6 0
86
221 404 783 414 451 383 4348 1246 5374 5357 4911 4911 1273 3629 3209 2375 2034/35 9 6 0
86
203 404 765 396 453 385 4320 1239 5356 5491 4882 4882 1255 3617 3215 2378 2033/34 p rt t re a p rt t
6 0
10 86 198 404 785 417 448 380 2032/33 4304 1240 5346 5496 4891 4891 1275 3606 3183 2355
9 6 0
86 189 404 772 418 450 382 2031/32 4308 1237 5357 5506 4892 4892 1262 3620 3196 2364
9 7 0
86 2030/31 171 404 696 419 450 383 4295 1171 5295 5473 4820 4820 1186 3624 3199 2366 Undiversified Total Undiversified
9 7 0 2029/30 86
155 404 662 419 450 382
4286 1128 5259 5480 4793 4793 1152 3632 3206 2373 2028/29 7 0 10 86
168 404 708 420 450 382
4301 1111 5244 5479 4841 4841 1198 3633 3207 2375 2027/28 0 7 10 85 207 404 774 422 450 383
4372 1130 5296 5443 4939 4939 1263 3667 3237 2404 2026/27 tr a 0 7 a etere h etere a
10 85
263 404 850 423 450 383 4443 1160 5340 5554 5030 5030 1339 3682 3252 2419 ta a ta etere 2025/26 0 7 10 85
231 404 787 423 451 383
4430 1039 5238 5571 4986 4986 1275 3701 3271 2436 2024/25 0 9 7
83
233 394 786 424 450 382 4426 1006 5198 5655 4979 4979 1264 3706 3275 2442 2023/24
0 9 7 hr a e
83 232 367 782 426 453 385 2022/23 4434 1008 5210 5635 4984 4984 1232 3743 3309 2472 0 9 7
83
251 365 831 428 455 386 2021/22 4471 1022 5242 5667 5051 5051 1279 3762 3326 2485
0 9 7
82 2020/21 938 267 351 852 431 455 386 4497 5168 5667 5082 5082 1284 3790 3351 2510
0 9 8
2019/20 80
845 223 339 764 430 454 385 4446 5068 5560 4988 4988 1184 3795 3357 2518 2018/19 0 9 8 80 872 260 311 785 433 457 388
4481 5093 5622 5006 5006 1176 3821 3380 2536
2017/18 0 9 8
79
887 315 296 849 434 457 388 4528 5100 5715 5062 5062 1224 3828 3387 2542 2016/17 0 8 11 78 891 334 274 860 438 458 389 4543 5100 5715 5069 5069 1212 3847 3401 2554
2015/16 0 8
12 74 693 231 434 449 384 4852 1034 5193 5728 5193 5193 1340 1034 3841 3399 2566
a etere h a etere h hr a e e tr t a e erat er
e n e n Diversified Total + Diversified High Power Total + Diversified Low Power High power Low power Total Undiversified Total Total including IUK Total IUK Total excluding IUK Total NTS Shrinkage NTS Power Generation NTS Consumption NTS Industrial Exports to Ireland Total LDZ Total Total Daily Metered Total Local Distribution Zone Shrinkage Total Non-daily Total metered Non-daily metered Non-daily metered (73.2-732 MWh) Non-daily metered (> 732 MWh) Diversified Peak Non-daily metered (0-73.2 MWh) No Progression: 1-in-20 peak day diversified demand Figure A5.1M Table A5.1M Table demand No Progression: 1-in-20 peak day diversified 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven Consumer Power:1-in-20peakdaydiversifieddemand Figure A5.1N Consumer Power:1-in-20peakdaydiversifieddemand Table A5.1N and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 e n Low Power Diversified Total + High Power Diversified Total + High power Low power Total Undiversified Total includingIUK IUK Total excludingIUK NTS Shrinkage NTS Consumption Generation NTS Power Exports toIreland NTS Industrial Total LDZ Zone Shrinkage Local Distribution Total DailyMetered metered Total Non-daily 732 MWh) (> Non-daily metered (73.2-732 MWh) Non-daily metered (0-73.2 MWh) Non-daily metered Peak Diversified er e erat a tr t e hr a e h etere a a etere h etere a
4890 5229 1032 5677 5229 5229 1338 1032 3880 3431 2557 693 231 441 470 404 12 74
0 8
2015/16 4597 5171 5680 5171 5171 1258 3903 3445 2538 332 274 450 488 419 907 907 11 77 0 8 2016/17 4554 5131 5674 5060 5060 1160 3890 3434 2520 280 296 448 491 423 857 786 78 0 8 9 2017/18 4516 5202 5705 5087 5087 1195 3883 3427 2503 235 311 449 496 428 920 805 79 0 8 9 2018/19 4453 5156 5690 5010 5010 1161 3840 3383 2455 185 339 449 498 430 888 742
80 2019/20 0 8 9 4383 5175 5630 4882 4882 1057 3817 3358 2420 127 351 451 503 434 919 626 2020/21 80 0 7 9
4333 5141 5499 4762 4762 3783 3325 2379 2021/22 365 450 508 438 903 970 524 95 80 0 7 9
4288 5046 5474 4672 4672 3755 3298 2346 2022/23 367 450 511 440 835 908 461 77 80 hr a e 0 7 9 2023/24 4278 5151 5455 4731 4731 3706 3249 2299 1016 394 450 511 438 961 542 89 80 0 7 9 2024/25 4271 5192 5409 4740 4740 3685 3226 2269 1012 1045 404 452 517 440 561 92 81 10 0 7 2025/26 ta a etere ta a 4227 5116 5097 4619 4619 3656 3216 2253 404 433 522 442 964 953 467 76 81 10 a etere h 0 7 tr a 2026/27 4197 5081 4985 4492 4492 3640 3238 2259 404 395 531 448 946 842 357 62 81 10 0 7 2027/28 4159 5048 4882 4446 4446 3605 3220 2236 404 378 535 449 948 832 346 59 82 10 0 7 2028/29 4154 5016 4834 4407 4407 3601 3215 2225 404 379 540 450 921 798 312 58 82
2029/30 0 7 9
Undiversified Undiversified Total 4141 5001 4819 4372 4372 3588 3202 2210 404 379 542 450 917 775 289 2030/31 57 82 0 7 9 4131 4956 4809 4344 4344 3578 3191 2195 2031/32 404 381 546 450 882 757 270 57 83 0 6 9
4112 4908 4827 4342 4342 3558 3131 2143 2032/33 404 421 544 444 853 774 287 57 10 83 0 6
p rt t p rt re a 2033/34 4074 4849 4766 4284 4284 3566 3137 2136 404 423 552 448 785 709 220 10 84 0 9 6 2034/35 4070 4834 4814 4314 4314 3561 3131 2124 404 424 557 450 774 743 254 11 85 0 9 6 2035/36 4062 4785 4766 4334 4334 3552 3121 2111 404 425 560 450 735 773 284 12 85 0 9 6 2036/37 4040 4698 4710 4258 4258 3530 3100 2092 404 424 560 448 669 718 228 10 10 86 0 6 2037/38 4051 4706 4649 4238 4238 3541 3147 2118 404 389 572 457 665 687 197 10 10 86 0 6 2038/39 4048 4710 4644 4237 4237 3537 3142 2108 404 390 576 458 672 690 200
10 87 2039/40 0 9 6 4037 4641 4572 4194 4194 3527 3131 2094 404 390 579 458 614 659 168
2040/41 11 87 0 9 5 4013 4615 4547 4169 4169 3503 3109 2073 404 389 579 456 613 657 167 10 86 0 9 5 172 4025 4627 4484 4175 4175 3514 3120 2081 404 389 581 458 613 652 161 11 87 0 9 5 Chapter seven 173 Total DM Total NTS Power Generation 7 9 0
82
441 351 629 138 830 400 479 2417 3296 3744 1061 4814 4814 5539 5015 4323 2020/21 8 9 0
81
440 339 741 193 876 393 474 3313 3760 1161 4930 4930 5603 5065 4382 2446 2019/20 8 9 0
80
440 311 794 242 899 390 474 2018/19 3355 3803 1185 4997 4997 5618 5102 4445 2492 Exports Ireland to
NDM MWh) 732 (> 8 9 0 2017/18 79
440 296 813 295 871 384 472
3376 3824 1189 5022 5022 5657 5079 4504 2520 2016/17 8 0
77 11
442 274 878 352 933 380 469 3403 3853 1229 5093 5093 5653 5148 4567 2554 2015/16 8 0 74 12 435 231 693 372 456 3408 3851 1034 1339 5202 5202 5648 1034 5202 4861 2580 Undiversified Total Undiversified NTS Industrial NTS 73.2–732 MWh MWh) MWh) MWh)
0–73.2 MWh Shrinkage LDZ Shrinkage NTS
e n e n Diversified Total + Low Power Diversified Total Undiversified Total Low power High power Total + High Power Diversified NTS Consumption NTS Shrinkage excluding IUK Total IUK including IUK Total Total LDZ Total NTS Industrial Exports to Ireland NTS Power Generation Generation Non-daily metered (73.2-732 Non-daily metered (> 732 Non-daily metered Non-daily metered Total Daily Metered Total Local Distribution Zone Shrinkage Diversified Peak (0-73.2 Non-daily metered Figure A5.1O Updated Forecast: 1-in-20 peak day diversified demand Updated Forecast: 1-in-20 peak day diversified Table A5.1O Table peak day diversified demand Updated Forecast: 1-in-20 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Supply 5.2 Peak Barrowscenarios(mcm/d) Figure A5.2B Peak Bactonscenarios(mcm/d) Figure A5.2A arr ate re ea e a e e ar a t ate re ea e a e e ar
a t apa t arr apa t arr a t arr arr a t a a t a
174 Chapter seven 175 a t a a t a t t er a t a t er apa t a t apa t a t
a e e ar a e t er ate re ea e a e e ar a e re ea e ate a t
Peak St. Fergus scenarios (mcm/d) Figure A5.2D Figure A5.2C Peak Easington scenarios (mcm/d) Peak Easington scenarios 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Peak Teesside scenarios(mcm/d) Figure A5.2E Figure A5.2F Peak Theddlethorpescenarios(mcm/d)
he eth rpe ate re ea e a e e ar ee e ate re ea e a e e ar
he eth rpe apa t ee e apa t ee e he eth rpe a t a
a t a 176 Chapter seven 177 r a e a t a e ra a t a r a e apa t e ra apa t
a e e ar a e re ea e ate a e r a e e ar a e e ra ate re ea e
Peak Milford Haven scenarios (mcm/d) Figure A5.2H Figure A5.2G (mcm/d) Peak Grain LNG scenarios 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven Figure A5.2I Annual supplybyterminal.GoneGreenlowcontinent/highLNGcase Figure A5.2J Annual supplybyterminal.GoneGreenhighcontinent/lowLNGcase and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 e e he eth rpe a t he eth rpe a t
arr arr h re h re a t a t rt t rt t t er t er
e ra e ra e ee e ee e r a e r a e 178 Chapter seven 179 r a e r r a e r e er t ra e e er ee e ee e e ra e ra ra e t ra e t er t t er t rt t rt rt t rt a t a t h re h re arr arr
a t he eth rpe a t he eth rpe t ra e h rt ra e a e
e 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Figure A5.2L Annual supply by terminal. Slow Progression high continent/low LNG case Figure A5.2K Gone Green Peak supply by terminal. Chapter seven and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Annual supplybyterminal.GoneGreenhighcontinent/lowLNGcase Figure A5.2M Peak supplybyterminal.SlowProgression Figure A5.2N e he eth rpe a t e a h rt ra e t ra e he eth rpe a t
arr arr h re h re a t a t
rt t rt t t er t er ra e t ra era e
e ra e e ra e ee e ee e e er t ra e r a e r a e 180 Chapter seven 181 r a e r r a e r ee e ee e e ra e ra t er t t er t rt t rt rt t rt a t a t h re h re arr arr
a t he eth rpe a t he eth rpe
e e 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Figure A5.2P Annual supply by terminal. No Progression low continent/high LNG case high continent/low LNG case No Progression high continent/low LNG Annual supply by terminal. Figure A5.2O Chapter seven and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Peak supplybyterminal.NoProgression Figure A5.2Q Annual supplybyterminal.ConsumerPowerhighcontinent/lowLNGcase Figure A5.2R e he eth rpe a t e a h rt ra e t ra e he eth rpe a t
arr arr h re h re a t a t
rt t rt t t er t er ra e t ra era e
e ra e ra e ee e ee e e er t ra e r a e r a e 182 Chapter seven 183 r a e r r a e r e er t ra e e er ee e ee e e ra e ra ra e t ra e t er t t er t rt t rt rt t rt a t a t h re h re arr arr
a t he eth rpe t ra e h rt ra e a e a t he eth rpe
e Figure A5.2T Peak supply by terminal. Consumer Power Figure A5.2S low continent/high LNG case Consumer Power low continent/high LNG Annual supply by terminal. 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven and supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Peak supply by terminal. Updated forecast Peak supplybyterminal.Updatedforecast Figure A5.2U e a h rt ra e t ra e he eth rpe a t
arr h re a t rt t t er ra e t ra era e
e ra e ee e e er t ra e r a e 184 Chapter seven 185
Capacity (bcm/y)Capacity 26.9 19.5 20.4 21 7.6 26.3 14.2 9.8 6.2 152 Location Bacton Bacton Kent Milford Haven Milford Haven Easington Fergus St Fergus St Fergus St Total a diverse set of import routes from Norway, international other from and Belgium Holland, importation terminals. LNG the through sources 5.3A showsTable existing UK import shows 5.3B Table and infrastructure further import projects. for proposals Type Pipeline Pipeline LNG LNG LNG Pipeline Pipeline Pipeline Pipeline
1
bcm/y) bcm/y. IUK Company BBL Grid National Qatar Petroleum and ExxonMobil Shell/Petronas Gassco Gassco Gassco Gassco Operator/Developer bcm/y), Norway (56 bcm/y). The UK is served through
Interconnector Pipeline BBL Isle of Grain 1-3 South Hook 1-2 Dragon 1 Langeled Vesterled Tampen Gjoa Project Norwegian import capacity through Tampen and Gjøa is limited by available capacity in the UK FLAGS pipeline. are under construction. The UK’s import UK’s The construction. under are capacity is currently around 152 While there are proposals for further import importation projects no currently projects, 5.3 UK importation projects 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas and LNG (49 Source: National Grid National Source: This is split into three near equal sources: the Continent (46 1 Table 5.3A Table Existing UK import infrastructure Chapter seven Source: National Grid to contact us to add to or revise this data. this revise to or to add us to contact welcome are Developers to press. going of time latest information available to National Grid at the represent 5.3B and 5.3A Tables note Please Proposed UKimportprojects Table 5.3B supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix 2 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 This list is in no way exhaustive; other import projects have at times been detailed in the press. the in detailed been times at have projects import other exhaustive; way no in is list This Amlwch Port Meridian Norsea LNG Isle of Grain 4 Grain of Isle Project
Halite Energy Energy Port Meridian ConocoPhillips National Grid Developer Operator/ 2 LNG LNG LNG LNG Type Anglesey Cumbria Barrow, Teesside Kent Location ~ ~ ~ ~ Start-up
~30 5 ~ ~ (bcm/y) Capacity Approved Open Season on Hold Currently FID. no Planning Granted, Open Season Status 186 Chapter seven 187 41 40 Approximate max Approximate (mcm/d) delivery 1.8 5 22 18 7 12 15 162 0.3 3.3 Space (bcm) 0.022 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.05 0.2 0.07 4.7 Over the last few years, a number of projects have been put on hold or cancelled. These and Caythorpe Baird, 2, Aldborough include Portland. shows 5.4B other Table proposed sites. storage East Yorkshire East Southern North Sea North Southern Location Cheshire Cheshire Yorkshire East Hampshire Cheshire Cheshire South Yorkshire South Total
SSE/Statoil Centrica Storage Limited Operator/ Developer EDF Trading EDF E.ON SSE Grove Humbly Energy EDF Energy Storenergy Scottish Power . In particular the values for
Moor
Aldborough Hatfield Rough Project Holehouse Farm Holehouse Holford Hornsea Grove Humbly Farm Top Hill Stublach Note, due to operational considerations, considerations, operational to due Note, the space and deliverability will not be fully operational for used that with consistent planning as reported Winter in our 2016/17 ReportOutlook Rough do not reflect the reduced space and deliverability due outage. to in winter 2016/17 as regarded be should shown values The indicative of capacity that could be returned serviceto following completion of testing by Ltd. Storage Centrica Table 5.4A Table Existing UK storage In the months last 12 no proposals have for Decision Investment Final a attained following The construction. subsequent 5.4 UK storage projects tables detail UK storage in terms of existing construction under those sites, storage sites. proposed and Source: National Grid National Source: 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven to contact us to add to or revise this data. data. this revise to or to add us to contact welcome are Developers to press. going of time latest information available to National Grid at the the represent 5.4A–5.4B Tables note Please Proposed storage Table 5.4B supply volumeand scenarios demand Gas 5 Appendix 3 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Source: National Grid This list is in no way exhaustive; other storage projects at times have been detailed in the press. the in detailed been have times at projects storage other exhaustive; way no in is list This Whitehill Saltfleetby Preesall King Street Islandmagee Deborah Gateway Project
3 E.ON Wingaz Halite Energy Energy Street King InfrasStrata Eni Energy Stag Developer Operator/ Total East Yorkshire Lincolnshire Lancashire Cheshire Ireland Northern Antrim, County Bacton Offshore Bay MorecambeOffshore Location
8.7 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 4.6 1.5 (bcm) Space Planning granted, no FID Planning granted, no FID Planning granted, no FID Planning granted, no FID Planning granted, no FID Planning granted, no FID Planning granted, no FID Status 188 Chapter seven 189
Amendments to the functionality in the the in functionality the to Amendments Gemini system allow to it send to within-day capacity and tariff values the to European gas capacity trading platform PRISMA. Additional transparency requirements in requirements transparency Additional respect of capacity data and hourly flow points. interconnection at A new data exchange solution in line in solution exchange data new A charges scheduling of Disapplication as points interconnection of respect in implemented Modification by 0510V. at Bacton). at with the INT Code requirements enable to receive and nominations submit shippers to points interconnection at quantities confirmed in the Edigas format over the internet. for shipper nominations and allocations allocations and nominations shipper for Change to Gemini system following following system Gemini to Change Modification(manage the 0519 impact offered in the annual yearly capacity auction held This in March was 2016. in accordance with article 6 of CAM and we will continue systemin accordance with the requirements the for Regulation Implementating the of Integrity Market Wholesale on Regulation (REMIT). Transparency and a programmeOn 1 May 2016 of IT system changes was delivered. This was partly In early we met with adjacent 2016 TSOs at Bacton and Moffat discuss, to analyse and agree the amount of available capacity at be would that (IP) Points Interconnection meetto at least once a year for this purpose. From 7 April National 2016, Grid began and nominations on reporting information GB the for primary allocations capacity INT the of implementation complete to included: which code,
6.1 Our activity date to In Chapter we discussed 2.4.2 the European legislation energy of Package Third (EU) Union last the Over 2009. in introduced was which six years, we have been working with the System Transmission of Network European Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), the European Cooperation the for Agency the Commission, of Energy Regulators Ofgem, (ACER), the UK Government, other Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and the industry enable to the development of several EU gas Network (CAM), Mechanism Allocation (Capacity Codes Data and Interoperability (BAL) Balancing Exchange (INT) and Tariffs (TAR)). haveWe influenced the EU Code developments customers, our industry and supported the and through a process of extensive dialogue sessions, working stakeholder involving number a and workshops technical of consultations. of contractual our changed have We arrangements with other TSOs at Bacton Netherlands) the and Belgium to (connecting Northern Ireland (connecting Moffat at and and the Republic of Ireland Great to Britain) ensureto we comply with the new legislation. Since 1 October the UK market 2015 aligned theto EU standard gas day of 5am 5am. to This facilitated the operation of the BAL and CAM codes from 1 October and 2015 Elements respectively. 2015 November 1 of the INT code were also implemented from 1 October 2015. Appendix activity 6 EU 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas Chapter seven
h g f e d c b a are: Guidelines and Codes EU the implement to To modifications UNC the date, EU 6 activity Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016
completed on 28 August 2015. 28 August on completed was Bacton) at ASEPs new the between (for allocation of capacity held by shippers modification by this established process 2015. 21 on July 6:00am The from effect EU Capacity Regulations). Implemented with with to comply ASEP Bacton the at Rights Capacity Entry Existing of 0501V (Treatment effect from 6:00am on 19 2015. on June 6:00am from effect Management Procedures). Implemented with Allocation Mechanisms with Congestion 0500 (EU Capacity Regulations Capacity 5:00am on 1 October 2015. 1October on 5:00am from effect with Implemented Networks). Code on Gas Balancing of Transmission Network the with UNC the to align required 0494 (Imbalance Charge amendments 19 2015. June on 6:00am from effect with Implemented Nominations at Interconnection Points (IP)). Daily Code Balancing Gas (EU 0493 2015. 1October on 5:00am from effect with Implemented Code). EU the with UNC the to align required changes Provision –Information Code Balancing Gas (EU 0489 0500. under introduced by text superseded 2014; September is 30 it on 6:00am from Procedures). Implemented with effect with EU Congestion Management tolose-it mechanism facilitate compliance 0485 (Introduction of Long-term use-it-or- 2015. October 1 on 5:00am from effect with Implemented Codes). Network EU under Day Gas with to Align Day Gas UNC the (Changing 0461 introduced under 0500. by text 2013; superseded is 1 October it on 6:00am from effect with Implemented EU Congestion Management Procedures). requirements to facilitate with compliance the transparency and processes new and 0449 (Introduction of Interconnection Points
m l k j i
implementation of Modifications 0493/0500). from arising EID to the 0547S (Corrections capacity). IP European for (100,000kWh) Quantity Eligible Minimum the of (Reduction 0546S 2015. 1October on 5:00am Agreements). Implemented with effect from 0525 (Enabling EU-compliant Interconnection 2015. 1October on 5:00am from effect at Interconnection Points). Implemented with 0519 (Harmonisation of Reference Conditions 2015. 1October on 5:00am from effect with GB Interconnection Points). Implemented at Regime Allocation 0510V Gas of (Reform 190 Chapter seven
191
Transparency: additional transparency transparency additional Transparency: published be to need requirements period. this throughout Commission Regulation (EU) No 984/2013 which aims introduce to a process for at capacity incremental of release the other Some points. interconnection proposed also are changes (non-incremental) as part of the amendment rules e.g. affecting the release of interruptible capacity at IPs. anticipateWe the CAM amendments to come into although effect from April 2017, implementation have changes some 2017. beyond go that timeframes GB arrangements will be required deliver to these codes/changes between and 2019. 2017 Once the codes/changes and timelines have been confirmed under the EU processes we will confirm our delivery plans.
process involving involving process 4 An EU-wide Network Code on Harmonised which Gas for Structures Tariff Transmission we anticipate needing be to implemented Network the to proposal amendment An Mechanisms Allocation Capacity on Code (CAM). This will be an amendment to by end 2018/early 2019 for use in endby 2019. 2019 2018/early This code will include rules for the application of a reference price methodology for the standard for prices reserve of calculation associated the as well as products, capacity requirements. publication and consultation Comitology refers to a set of procedures through which EU countries control how the European Commission implements EU law. 6.2 Our future activity 4 going through the comitology the through going 6.2.1 onwards 2017 A number of codes/changes are currently 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas EU Member States and the Commission. expectWe these come to into force in 2017. anticipateWe that a number of changes to Based on our current understanding the codes/ follows: as are implemented be to changes Chapter seven Network DevelopmentNetwork Process 7 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 early stage of the NDP. the of stage early allows us to discount unsuitable options at an Model aids our process decision-making and The scoring from the Whole Life Prioritisation (NDP). Process Development Network our of part as considered options the of all to prioritise The following table outlines the criteria we use for encouraging new investment? investment? new encouraging for barrier remove option this Does flexibility requirements? future to meet Grid National allow option this Does Criteria beyond FES? beyond to be operated in sensitivities Does this option allow the network option? this Capacity obligations considering Entry meet Grid National Can network? the on appropriate level of resilience an represent option this Does capability? current to retain Grid Does this option allow National option? this Capacity obligations considering Exit meet Grid National Can and MCP) i.e. BREF legislation with deals this so above covered is (flexibility proof? future option this Is charges? customer on impact Does this option have a negligible
to new investment. to new abarrier create will and used currently is NTS the how and Will reduce network capability requirements. and will impact users' current flexibility system Reduces Description FES cannot be met. be cannot FES met. to be able be not will require currently Existing obligations that users station. the at unit(s) credible largest the of loss the Does not provide resilience for used. currently is NTS the how Will and reduce impact capability met. to be able be not will require currently Existing obligations that users to revisit. need will implemented When future legislation is £100 million. of excess in is cost The information is available. other and costs detailed more once options of range narrower the to rank again criteria model the We use stage. Portfolio Establish the during detail more in to investigate options of range anarrower have we process ranking this of end At the process. Case Need the during identified options of range wide the to rank used is NDP. our of model stage The Portfolio Establish the of end the at again then and stage Case Need the during once twice: We use the Whole Life Prioritisation Model
new investment. new to abarrier create may and Will reduce network capability requirements. and may impact users' future flexibility system Reduces exceed FES. exceed to capability reduces Significantly met. be not will future the in to use require may Existing obligations that users line. in next currently are units affected the where stations, interacting at units of loss the Reduces resilience considering levels. /or FES and capacity sold meet to insufficient to alevel reduced Capability met. be not will future the in to use require may Existing obligations that users to revisit. need legislation is implemented will future when that likely is It £50–£100 million. between is cost The
192
not currently first in line. in first currently not exceed FES. exceed to capability Reduces met. be not will future the in to use unlikely are users that obligations Existing are units affected the where stations, interacting at units of loss the for resilience Reduces levels. FES and/or capacity sold meet to insufficient be reduced toCapability potentially met. be not will future the in to use unlikely are users that obligations Existing future legislation is implemented. when revisited to be need May between is cost The investment. new to abarrier to be unlikely but Will reduce network capability, requirements. future users' to affect unlikely is this but flexibility, system Reduces £20–£50 million. £20–£50
as the existing situation. Provides similar level of resilience should not require revisiting. interaction with future legislation investment. new on impact no existing situation to exceed FES. to exceed situation existing the as capability similar Provides obligations is maintained. existing to meet Ability levels. /or FES and capacity sold meet to capability Sufficient obligations is maintained. existing to meet ability The Although there is some £10–£20 million. between is cost The – Maintains network capability situation. existing the as flexibility system of level similar Provides
the network. Increases the resilience of future legislation. Ability to respond to new investment. facilitating Increases network capability, existing situation to exceed FES. to exceed situation existing the over ability the Enhances existing obligations. to meet ability the Increases levels. FES and/or capacity sold to meet capability Increased existing obligations. to meet ability the Increases <£10 is million. cost The requirements. future to assist in meeting users' flexibility system the Increases
Chapter seven 193
Increases the ability meet to obligations. existing Enhances the ability over the existing situation exceed to FES. Increases the system flexibility users' meeting in assist to future requirements. capability, network Increases facilitating investment. new The cost million. is <£10 to respond to Ability legislation. future Increases the ability meet to obligations. existing Increased capability meet to sold capacity and/or FES levels. of resilience the Increases network. the
Abilitymeet to existing maintained. is obligations Provides similar capability as the existing situation exceed to FES. Provides similar level of system flexibility as the existing situation. The cost is between million. £10–£20 some is there Although legislation future with interaction revisiting. require not should The ability meet to existing maintained. is obligations Sufficient capabilityto meet sold capacity and FES /or levels. resilience of level similar Provides situation. existing the as Maintains network capability network Maintains – no impact on new investment.
not be met. exceed FES. Existing obligations that users are unlikely use to in the future will Reduces capability to Reduces resilience for the loss of units at interacting stations, where the affected units are not currently first in line. Existing obligations that users are unlikely use to in the future will potentially Capability to reduced be insufficientto meet sold capacity and/or FES levels. May need be to revisited when implemented. is legislation future not be met. The cost is between £20–£50 million. Reduces system flexibility, but this is unlikely affect to users' future requirements. capability, network reduce Will but unlikely be to a barrier to new investment. 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas The criteria included in the model help us to determine which option is the most robust and should be taken forward the to next stages of our NDP – Select Option, Develop and Sanction. The definition of current capability now references sold and FES levels and ability the against option each assesses to meetto these.
Existing obligations that users that obligations Existing may require use to in the future willnot be met. Significantly reduces capabilityto exceed FES. Reduces system flexibility future users' impact may and requirements. capability network reduce Will and may create a barrier to new investment. The cost is between million. £50–£100 It is likely that when future will implemented is legislation need revisit. to users that obligations Existing may require use to in the future willnot be met. Capability reduced a level to insufficientto meet sold capacity and FES /or levels. considering resilience Reduces the loss of units at interacting stations, where the affected units are currently next in line.
Existing obligations that users that obligations Existing currently require will not be able beto met. FES cannot be met. Description Reduces system flexibility current users' impact will and requirements. capability network reduce Will and how the NTS is currently used and will create a barrier newto investment. The cost is in excess of million. £100 is legislation future When implemented will need revisit. to users that obligations Existing currently require will not be able beto met. capability impact reduce and Will how the NTS is currently used. for resilience provide not Does the loss of the largest credible unit(s) at the station.
Can National Grid meet Entry considering obligations Capacity this option? network the allow option this Does sensitivities in operated be to beyond FES? Criteria Does this option allow National Grid meet to future requirements? flexibility Does this option remove barrier for encouraging new investment? negligible a have option this Does impact on customer charges? Is this option future proof? (flexibility is covered above so this deals with legislation BREF i.e. MCP) and Can National Grid meet Exit considering obligations Capacity this option? National allow option this Does Grid retain to current capability? Does this option represent an resilience of level appropriate on the network? Chapter seven assume a calorific value (CV) of 39.6of MJ/m (CV) value acalorific assume Note: all volume to energy conversions MJ/m Thousand toe mcm GWh table. the in values by the multiply top the across units to the side left-hand the on units the from To convert Conversion matrix 8 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Thousand therms = Gigawatt hours = Million cubic metres Million 3 mcm GWh = One million joules per metre cubed toe = Thousand tonne of oil equivalent equivalent oil of tonne =Thousand 11.630 29.307 GWh
11 1
3 1.057 2.664 0.091 mcm 1 therms Million 0.397 0.375 0.034 1 Thousand 2.520 0.946 0.086 toe 1 194 Chapter seven 195 bar. bcm = 1,000,000,000 cubic metres. Definition definitions of annual Different any one fiscal year. The electrical power demand in purposes. different used for demand are Average cold spell: defined as a particular combination of weather elements which cold spell: defined as a particular Average demand which has a 50% chance of being gives rise to a level of winter peak definitions different are of weather variation alone. There exceeded as a result purposes. of ACS peak demand for different To support the safe and efficient operation of the pipeline, above ground installations installations efficient operation of the pipeline, above ground support the safe and To pipeline and at intervals the start and end of the cross-country needed at (AGIs) are along the route. A pressure that we may make available at an offtake to a large consumer connected to a large consumer connected available at an offtake that we may make A pressure specified within the NExA conditions. ANOPs are to the NTS under normal operating for the site. agreement A minimum pressure at an offtake from the NTS to a DN that is required the NTS to a DN that is required from at an offtake A minimum pressure through and revised agreed network. AOPs are to support the downstream the annual OCS process. The AQ of a Supply Point is its annual consumption over a 365-day year. year. The AQ of a Supply Point is its annual consumption over a 365-day This was an agreement between National Grid and a shipper relating to future NTS to future between National Grid and a shipper relating This was an agreement NTS Exit Capacity that shippers can reserve pipeline capacity for large sites in order (See also PARCA) process. by the PARCA in the long term. This has been replaced A System Entry point where there is more than one, or adjacent Connected than one, is more there A System Entry point where to gas supply terminals. Delivery Facilities; the term is often used to refer (0.987 atmospheric pressure equal to that is approximately The unit of pressure the letter g, such as in barg or bar is suffixed with Where atmospheres). standard to atmospheric i.e. relative to is gauge pressure, being referred mbarg, the pressure One millibar (mbarg) equals 0.001 pressure. A term used in relation to Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) 2010. In this to Industrial Emissions Directive A term used in relation applying the Technique and means Available defined as Best is context BAT the basis for emission limit methods of operation for providing most effective that is not and, where values and other permit conditions designed to prevent as a whole. emissions and the impact on the environment practicable, to reduce A gas pipeline between Balgzand in the Netherlands and Bacton in the UK. A gas pipeline between Balgzand in the Netherlands and Bacton and uni-directional . This pipeline is currently http://www.bblcompany.com the Netherlands to the UK only. flows from to meet minimum demand at a constant rate. The costs of electricity purchased Unit or measurement of volume, used in the gas industry. of volume, used in the gas industry. Unit or measurement 1 organic material and from Biomethane is a naturally occurring gas that is produced has similar characteristics to natural gas. http://www.biomethane.org.uk/ LNG storage tanks. This helps from A small amount of gas which continually boils off to keep the tanks cold. A UK government department. The Department of Business, Energy & Industrial energy clean, affordable the UK has secure, Strategy (BEIS) works to make sure international action to mitigate climate change. These activities supplies and promote of the Department of Energy and Climate Change formerly the responsibility were (DECC) which closed in July 2016. BAT Reference Documents draw conclusions on what the BAT is for each sector Documents draw conclusions on what the BAT Reference BAT of conclusions drawn as a result of IED. The BAT to comply with the requirements for setting permit conditions. the BREF documents will then form the reference the NTS Capacity holdings give NTS Users the right to bring gas onto or take gas off Capacity rights can be (up to levels of capacity held) on any day of the gas year. up to the gas day itself. processes, shorter-term in the long term or through procured
Term Annual power demand Average cold spell Average Above-ground installation Above-ground Anticipated Normal Operating Pressure Assured Offtake Pressure Pressure Offtake Assured Annual Quantity Advanced Reservation of Capacity Agreement Aggregate System Entry Aggregate Point Bar Best Available Technique Best Available Balgzand–Bacton Line Baseload electricity price Billion cubic metres Biomethane Boil-off Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy BAT Reference Documents Reference BAT Capacity Acronym 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas ACS AGI ANOP AOP AQ ARCA ASEP BAT BBL bcm BEIS BREF Glossary Appendix 9 Chapter seven Glossary 9 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 CO CNG CM DFN CLNG DCO CHP CCS DC CV CfD CCGT CWV CSEP CO CEN Acronym 2 2 e Compressed naturalgas Capacity Market Daily FlowNotification Constrained LNG Order Development Consent Combined heatandpower Storage Carbon Capture and Directly Connected (offtake) Calorific Value Contract forDifference Turbine Combined CycleGas Variable Composite Weather Exit Point Connected System Normalisation Comité Europeén de Term Carbon dioxideequivalent Carbon dioxide Compressor station
1 percentofthevolumeitoccupiesatstandard atmosphericpressure. Compressed naturalgasismadebycompressing naturalgastolessthan their electricityrevenues, ensuringtheydeliverenergywhenneeded. is achievedbyproviding apaymentforreliable sources ofcapacity, alongside The CapacityMarketisdesignedtoensure securityofelectricitysupply. This indicating hourlyandend-of-day entryflowsfrom thatfacility. A communicationbetween aDeliveryFacilityOperator(DFO)andNational Grid, Grid request. InexchangeShippersreceive atransportationcredit from NationalGrid. minimum inventory in the facility and flow under certain demand conditions at National A serviceavailableatsomeLNGstoragefacilitieswhereby Shippersagree toholda HV electricityconnection isrequired. and theconstructionofnewcompressor stationsmay alsorequire DCOsifanew a developmentproject. Significantnewpipelines require aDCOtobeobtained, A statutoryOrder underThePlanningAct(2008)whichprovides consentfor part ofoneprocess. Coversarangeoftechnologiesthatachievethis. A systemwhereby bothheatandelectricityare generatedsimultaneouslyas Carbon (CO I.e. theconnectionisnotviasupplyprovided from aDistributionNetwork. Direct connectiontotheNTStypicallypowerstationsandlargeindustrial users. The ratioofenergytovolumemeasured inmegajoulespercubicmetre (MJ/m electricity generatordesignedtoreduce itsexposure tovolatilewholesaleprices. Contract betweentheLowCarbonContractsCompany(LCCC)andalowcarbon steam turbinegeneratortogeneratemore electricity. (SeealsoOCGT) is usedtoproduce steaminaheatrecovery drivesa boilerwhichinturn, turbine generatortogenerateelectricity. Theresidual heatfrom thisprocess Gas turbinethatusesthecombustionofnaturalgasordieseltodrivea on 1October2015. speed. We haveadoptedthenewindustry-wideCWVequationsthattook effect A measure ofweather incorporatingtheeffects ofbothtemperature andwind system operatedbyanotherGasTransporter. containing more thanonesupplypoint.Forexampleaconnection toapipeline A pointatwhichnaturalgasissuppliedfrom theNTStoaconnectedsystem maintenance anddistributionofstandards andspecifications. European committeeforstandardisation withthedevelopment, concerned Definition For exampleUKemissionsare roughly 600mtonnesCO gases andtheirrelative effect onclimatechangecompared tocarbondioxide. A termusedrelating toclimatechangethataccountsforthe“basket” ofgreenhouse Carbon dioxide(CO and pressure. which foragasismeasured andexpressed understandard conditionsoftemperature and industrialprocesses. TheCO to largeemissionsources likepowerplantsusedforelectricitygeneration move gasthrough thenetwork. pressures inthepipelinesystem.Usedtoincrease transmissioncapacityand An installationthatusesgasturbineorelectricity-drivencompressors toboost roughly 450mtonnesCO emissions comefrom offossilfuels(coal,naturalgasandoil). theburning long-term storageingeologicalformationsorforuseindustrialprocesses. location andisolatedfrom theatmosphere. Capture ofCO produced inthecombustionoffossilfuelsiscaptured, transportedtoastorage as agreenhouse gas,henceitscontributiontoCO potent greenhouse gasessuchasmethane,whichhas21times more effect 2 ) capture andstorage(CCS)isaprocess bywhichtheCO 2 ) isthemaingreenhouse gasandthevastmajorityofCO 2 andlessthanthe150mtonnesremaining ofmore 2 isthencompressed andtransportedfor 2 e willbe21timesitsmass. 2 e. Thisconstitutes 2 canbeapplied 2
2 3
), 196 Chapter seven
197
barg, pipeline systems. A Capacity Market, which will help ensure security of electricity supply at the least A Capacity Market, which will help ensure cost to the consumer. stabilisation for new revenue long-term which will provide Contracts for Difference, low carbon initiatives. Definition in demand. Gas can be stored in special installations, such as in the form of linepack in special installations, such as in the form of linepack in demand. Gas can be stored within transmission, i.e. >7 The operator of a reception terminal or storage facility, who processes and meters who processes terminal or storage facility, The operator of a reception the gas transferring storage facilities before pipelines or offshore gas deliveries from to the NTS. tiers. pressure at three A network of mains operating among other things, within-day variations for the purpose of meeting, Gas stored A Supply Point fitted with equipment, for example a datalogger, which enables meter for example a datalogger, A Supply Point fitted with equipment, to be taken on a daily basis. readings A gas transportation system that delivers gas to industrial, commercial and domestic delivers gas to industrial, commercial A gas transportation system that eight DNs, currently are There boundary. consumers within a defined geographical DNs typically operate Local Distribution Zones (LDZs). each consisting of one or more than the NTS. at lower pressures Distribution Network Operators own and operate the Distribution Networks that are own and operate the Distribution Networks that are Distribution Network Operators supplied by the NTS. Environmental study of proposed development works as required under EU regulation under EU regulation works as required development study of proposed Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations and Country Planning (Environmental and the Town “on the assessment of the effects apply the EU directive 2011. These regulations to as the (usually referred on the environment” of certain public and private projects to the planning system in England. Impact Assessment Directive) Environmental Pollution from larger industrial installations is regulated under the Pollution larger industrial installations is regulated Pollution from on Integrated This implements the EU Directive regime. and Control Prevention Each installation subject (IPPC) (2008/1/EC). and Control Pollution Prevention to have a permit containing emission limit values and other to IPPC is required and set (BAT) Techniques conditions based on the application of Best Available quantities to minimise emissions of pollutants likely to be emitted in significant energy efficiency, water or land. Permit conditions also have to address to air, of accidental emissions and site restoration. waste minimisation, prevention A government policy to incentivise investment in secure, low-carbon electricity, electricity, low-carbon A government policy to incentivise investment in secure, for affordability and improve electricity supply, Britain’s the security of Great improve a number of mechanisms. In particular: consumers. The Energy Act 2013 introduced by delivery partners of the Department of Business, Both will be administered Electricity Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). This includes National Grid (NGET). Transmission The Energy Networks Association is an industry association funded The Energy Networks Association is an industry association by gas or transmission and distribution licence holders. Organisation to facilitate cooperation between national gas transmission system Organisation to facilitate cooperation between national gas transmission of a pan-European the development to ensure Europe operators (TSOs) across Union energy goals. transmission system in line with European illustrates the potential future development of the National Electricity The ETYS illustrates the potential future System (NETS) over a ten-year (minimum) period and is published Transmission on an annual basis. of supply points that, (within an LDZ) that consists of a group A geographical area the same NTS offtake. gas from receive on a peak day, The FEED is basic engineering which comes after the Conceptual design or Feasibility as well as an approximate The FEED design focuses on the technical requirements study. budget investment cost for the project. The FES is a range of credible futures which has been developed in conjunction futures The FES is a range of credible a set of scenarios covering the period from They are with the energy industry. tests. used to frame discussions and perform stress now to 2050, and are They form the starting point for all transmission network and investment planning, operability challenges and potential solutions. to identify future used and are Term Delivery Facility Operator Distribution System Diurnal Storage Daily Metered Supply Point Daily Metered Distribution Network Distribution Network Operator Environmental Impact Environmental Assessment Emission Limit Value Emission Limit Value Electricity Market Reform Energy Networks Association European Network of European System Transmission Operators for Gas Electricity Ten Year Year Electricity Ten Statement Exit Zone Front End End Front Engineering Design Future Energy Scenarios Future Acronym 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas DFO DM DN DNO EIA ELV EMR ENA ENTSOG ETYS FEED FES Chapter seven Glossary 9 Appendix Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 gCO GWh GW GTYS IGMS GS(M)R IED GFOP IEA GB HSE Acronym 2 /kWh Gigawatt hour Gigawatt Gas Ten Year Statement Interconnector System Management Control Integrated Gas Gas Transporter Regulations 1996 Gas Safety(Management) Directive Industrial Emissions Operability Planning Gas Future Agency Energy International Great Britain Executive Health andSafety Gas SupplyYear Gasholder Gas Deficit Warning Term per kilowatthour Gram ofcarbondioxide
1,000,000,000 watthours,aunitofenergy. 1,000,000,000 watts,ameasure ofpower. (UNC) requirements. to theNationalTransmission SystemandtocomplywithUniformNetworkCode Gas plc’s obligationsinSpecialCondition7AoftheGasTransporter Licencerelating The GasTen Year Statementispublishedannuallyinaccordance withNationalGrid Bacton. Itiscurrently capableofflowingonlyfrom theNetherlandstoUK. Interconnector (BBL)transportsgasbetweenBalgzandintheNetherlands and The BelgianInterconnector iscapableofflowinggasineitherdirection. TheDutch The BelgianInterconnector (IUK)transportsgasbetweenBactonandZeebrugge. gas across theIrishSeatobothRepublicofIreland Ireland. andNorthern A pipelinetransportinggastoanothercountry. TheIrishInterconnector transports gas industry. system, andalsotoprovide marketinformationtointerested stakeholderswithinthe Used byNationalGridSystemOperationtocontrol andmonitortheGasTransmission the GasandElectricityMarketsAuthority(GEMA)totransportgasconsumers. Formerly PublicGasTransporter (PGT),GTs, suchasNationalGrid,are licensedby arrangements inplacetoensure compliancewithGS(M)Rrequirements. Gas Transporters are required tosubmitasafetycasetheHSEdetailing (d) gascomposition. (c) arrangementsfordealingwithreported gasescapesandincidents; (b) arrangementsfordealingwithsupplyemergencies; (a) pipes todomesticandotherconsumerscoverfourmainareas: Regulations whichapplytotheconveyanceofnaturalgas(methane)through Plant Directives. clear, coherent legislativeinstrument,includingtheIPPCandLargeCombustion has recast sevenexistingDirectives related toindustrialemissions intoasingle The IndustrialEmissionsDirective cameintoforce onJanuary2013.Thedirective we continuetomaintainaresilient, safeandsecure NTSnowandintothefuture. our operationalprocesses anddecisionmaking.Thispublicationhelpstomakesure way werespond mayleadustomodify toyouorothermarketsignals.This,inturn, NTS operationandourprocesses. TheGFOPmayhighlightaneedtochangethe of theNTSoutto2050.Italsoconsidershowtheserequirements mayaffect This publicationdescribeshowchangingrequirements affect thefuture capability member countries. organisationthatactsasenergypolicyadvisorto28 An intergovernmental Scotland andWales. A geographical,socialandeconomicgrouping ofcountriesthatcontainsEngland, and safetyperformancewithintheindustry. The HSEregulates theonshore pipeline operatorstomaintainandimprove thehealth A twelve-monthperiodcommencing1October, alsoreferred toasaGasYear. A vesselusedtostore gasforthepurposesofproviding storage. diurnal to provide awithindaymarketresponse toaphysicalsupply/demandimbalance. The purposeofaGasDeficit istoalerttheindustrya Warning requirement Definition Measurement ofCO of agassupplyemergency; parts supplyingdomesticconsumers,andadutytominimisetherisk the safemanagementofgasflowthrough anetwork,particularlythose 2 equivalentemissionsperkWhofenergyusedorproduced.
198 Chapter seven 199 GWh. kWh, one Gigawatt hour barg that transports gas from NTS/LDZ offtakes to offtakes NTS/LDZ barg that transports gas from MW thermal input. MCP is likely to come into force by 2020. MW thermal input. MCP is likely to come into force MWh, and one Terawatt hour (TWh) equals 1000 MWh, and one Terawatt mcm = 1,000,000 cubic metres The unit of volume, expressed under standard conditions of temperature and conditions of temperature under standard The unit of volume, expressed (mcm) are equal to 35.37 cubic feet. One million cubic metres approximately pressure, (bcm) equals 109 cubic metres. one billion cubic metres equal to 106 cubic metres, Definition Unit or measurement of volume, used in the gas industry. of volume, used in the gas industry. Unit or measurement 1 the industry with a day-ahead signal The purpose of the Margins Notice is to provide to a potential physical supply/ may be the need for a market response that there demand imbalance. Emissions from our installations are subject to EU wide legislation; the predominant subject to EU wide legislation; the predominant are our installations Emissions from (IPPC) Directive & Control Prevention legislation is the Integrated Pollution Industrial (LCPD) 2001 and the Directive 1999, the Large Combustion Plant have of these directives 2010. The requirements (IED) Emissions Directive and Wales) Permitting (England Environmental now been incorporated into the in Scotland). applying (with similar regulations (Amendment) Regulations 2013 to industrial installations and contributes emissions from IPPC aims to reduce policy targets and compliance with EU directives. meeting various environment to apply for an IPPC permit. required are Since 31 October 2000, new installations to apply for an IPPC permit over a phased required Existing installations were timetable until October 2007. The Medium Combustion Plant (MCP) directive will apply limits on emissions to air The Medium Combustion Plant (MCP) directive below 50 sites from A bi-directional gas pipeline between Bacton in the UK and gas pipeline A bi-directional Zeebrugge Belgium. http://www.interconnector.com (GWh) equals 1000 Union Directive is a European The Large Combustion Plant (LCP) directive of sulphur dioxide, oxides the emissions to control measures which introduced plant, including power stations. large combustion and dust from of nitrogen A unit of energy used by the gas industry. Approximately equal to 0.0341 Approximately industry. A unit of energy used by the gas equals 1000 therms. One Megawatt hour (MWh) A gas distribution zone connecting end users to the (gas) National A gas distribution zone connecting end users to the (gas) National System. Transmission at any time. System The volume of gas within the National or Local Transmission (See Also: PCLP) LNG is formed by chilling gas to -161˚C so that it occupies 600 times less space than LNG is formed by chilling gas to -161˚C so that it occupies 600 in its gaseous form. www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/Services/Grain-lng/what-is-lng/ load duration curve is that curve which, in a long series of years, The 1 in 50 severe to the year in question, would be with connected load held at the levels appropriate by (represented such that the volume of demand above any given demand threshold would be exceeded in one out of under the curve and above the threshold) the area fifty years. series of winters, with The average load duration curve is that curve which, in a long to the year in question, the average connected load held at the levels appropriate under the by the area is represented volume of demand above any given threshold, curve and above the threshold. There is one long-range storage site on the national transmission system: Rough, is one long-range storage site on the national transmission system: There coast. Rough is owned by Centrica and mainly puts gas the Yorkshire situated off of storage in the into storage (called ‘injection’) in the summer and takes gas out http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Our-company/Gas/Gas-Storage/ winter. A pipeline system operating at >7 Some large users may take their gas direct pipelines. distribution system low pressure the LTS. from NTS Entry Capacity available on a long-term basis (up to 17 years into the future) via years into the future) NTS Entry Capacity available on a long-term basis (up to 17 This is also known as Quarterly System Entry Capacity (QSEC). an auction process. Cubic metre Cubic metre Term Million cubic metres Margins Notice Integrated Pollution & Control Prevention 1999 Directive Medium Combustion Plant (Directive) Interconnector (UK) Interconnector Large Combustion Plant (Directive) Kilowatt hour Local Distribution Zone Linepack Liquefied natural gas Load Duration Curve (1-in-50 Severe) Load Duration Curve (Average) Long-range storage or seasonal storage Local Transmission System Local Transmission Long-Term System Entry Long-Term Capacity (LTSEC) 3 Acronym 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas mcm IPPC MCP IUK LCP KWh LDZ LNG LRS LTS LTSEC m Chapter seven Glossary 9 Appendix NWE NTS NOx NOM NGSE NGGT NExA NEA NDP NDM NCS NBP MWh MRS Acronym Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 (Hub) North West European System Offtake National Transmission System National Transmission Nitrous Oxide Network OutputMeasure Emergency Network GasSupply Transmission National GridGas Network ExitAgreement Network EntryAgreement Process Network Development Non-daily metered Shelf Norwegian Continental National balancingpoint Megawatt hour Medium-Range Storage Term
(NWE) hubpriceofgas andisusuallyquotedinpriceperthermofgas. irrespective ofwhere thegascomesfrom. ThisiscalledtheNorthWest European The wholesalegasmarket inNorthWest Europe hasone priceforgas odourisation equipment etc. The offtake installationincludesequipmentformetering,pressure regulation, An installationdefiningtheboundarybetween NTSand LTS oraverylargeconsumer. to NTSofftakes andare designedtooperate uptopressures of94 pipelines, multijunctionsitesandofftakes. NTSpipelines transportgasfrom terminals A high-pressure gastransportationsystem consisting ofcompressor stations, rain orare classified asgreenhouse gases. A group ofchemicalcompounds,somewhichare contributorstopollution,acid allowances andoutput.Thetargetscoveran eight-year periodfrom 2013to2021. of theNTSwhichmustbemet.AssethealthisakeyRIIOmeasure intermsof on thegasnetwork.There are specifictargetswhichare related tothecondition Replacement Outputs)asaproxy formeasuringthehealthandthuslevelofrisk RIIO hasintroduced NetworkOutputMeasures (NOMs)(previously Network to trymaintainsuppliesaslongpossibledomesticgasconsumers. to stopusinggas.Thesetoolswillbeused,undertheauthorisationofNEC, NTS orrequiring gasconsumers,startingwiththelargestindustrial balance. Optionsincluderequesting additionalgassuppliesbe delivered tothe National Gridtouseadditionalbalancingtoolsrestore asupply–demand Coordinator (NEC)wouldberequested todeclare aNGSE.This wouldenable system totransportgasconsumers.InsuchaneventtheNetworkEmergency terminal orastheresult ofdamagetoaNTSpipelineaffecting theabilityof caused byamajorlossofsuppliestothesystemasresult ofthefailure ofagas balance ontheNTSusingitsnormalsystembalancingtools.ANGSEcouldbe A NGSEoccurswhenNationalGridisunabletomaintainasupply–demand in gastransmissionactivities. NGGT refers toteamswithinboththeSOandTOareas ofNationalGrid,involved permitted flowrate,theassured offtake pressure andongoingcharges. the technicalandoperationalconditionsofofftake suchasthemaximum theNExAgastransporter setsout gas beingtakenoff thesystem.Within A NExAissignedbyagasshipperorDistributionNetworkOperatorpriortoany and ongoingcharges. connection suchasthegasqualityrequirements, themaximumpermittedflowrate the NEAgastransportersetsouttechnicalandoperationalconditionsof A NEAissignedbythegasshipperpriortoanyflowingonsystem.W and RIIOrequirements. projects thathavethelowestwhole-lifecost,are fitforpurposeandmeetstakeholder delivery andclosure forallNationalGridgasprojects. TheaimoftheNDPistodeliver NDP definesthemethodfordecisionmaking,optioneering,development,sanction, consuming more than73.2 the consumptionisapportioned,usinganagreed formula,andforsupplypoints A meterthatisread monthlyoratlongerintervals.Forthepurposesofdailybalancing, Easington terminals. and exploitationofnaturalresources. NCSgascomesintotheUKviaStFergusand subsoil beyondtheterritorialseaoverwhichNorwayexercises rightsofexploration The NorwegianContinentalShelf(NCS)comprisesthoseareas oftheseabedand (NBP) priceofgasandisusuallyquotedinperthermgas. of where thegascomesfrom. Thisiscalledthenationalbalancingpoint The wholesalegasmarketinBritainhasonepriceforirrespective 1,000,000 watts,ameasure ofpowerusageorconsumptionin1hour. themselves to fast day to day turn roundsthemselves tofastdayturn asmarketpricesanddemand dictate. Typically, thesestoragefacilitieshaveveryfastinjectionandwithdrawalratesthatlend Definition MWh pa,reconciled individuallywhenthemeterisread. bar(g). ithin 200 Chapter seven 201 Definition It is a oil and gas industry. body for the UK offshore Oil & Gas UK is a representative 2007. http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk organisation, established in April not-for-profit Gas turbines in which air is first compressed in the compressor element in the compressor compressed Gas turbines in which air is first (See also CCGT) fuel is injected and burned in the combustor. before This market constitutes the balancing market for GB and enables anonymous This market constitutes the balancing the day trading between market participants. on financially cleared is added to gas supplies to make it easier by which the distinctive odour The process to detect leaks. The UK's independent National Regulatory Authority, a non-ministerial government Regulatory Authority, The UK's independent National of existing and future the interests is to protect department. Its principal objective electricity and gas consumers. Gas used by National Grid Transmission to maintain system pressures under certain under certain pressures to maintain system Gas used by National Grid Transmission after a supply loss or demand forecast including periods immediately circumstances, and in the event of plant failure, become effective measures other change, before trips. and compressor such as pipe breaks Gas used by National Grid to operate the transportation system. Includes gas used Gas used by National Grid to operate the transportation system. fuel, heating and venting. for compressor Per year A solution developed in line with the enduring incremental capacity release solutions capacity release A solution developed in line with the enduring incremental the Planning Act (2008). which have been developed following the implementation of PCAs the functions of on 1 February 2015 and replace implemented were PARCAs and ARCAs. (See also ARCA & PCA) Planning Consent Agreements were made in relation to NTS Entry and Exit Capacity in relation made were Planning Consent Agreements between National Grid and developers, and comprised a bilateral agreement requests National Grid assessed the Need Case for NTS DNOs or Shippers whereby a and would undertake any necessary planning activities ahead of reinforcement a Need Case was identified, the Where the customer. formal capacity signal from statutory required customer would underwrite National Grid NTS to undertake the Impact Planning Act activities such as strategic optioneering, Environmental of the Assessment, statutory and local community consultations, preparation (DCO) and application. This has now been replaced Development Consent Order PARCA) (See process. by the PARCA Linepack is the volume of gas stored within the NTS. Throughout a gas day linepack a gas day linepack within the NTS. Throughout Linepack is the volume of gas stored National day. the over demand and supply between imbalances to due fluctuate levels an end-of-day balancer of the UK gas market, need to ensure Grid, as residual total supply equals, or is close to, total demand. The Projected market balance where market balance. Closing Linepack (PCLP) metric is used as an indicator of end-of-day (See also Linepack) a long series of The 1-in-20 peak day demand is the level of demand that, in to the winter in question, winters, with connected load held at levels appropriate counted only once. would be exceeded in one out of 20 winters, with each winter NTS entry capacity available on a long-term basis (up to 17 years into the future) via into the future) NTS entry capacity available on a long-term basis (up to 17 years System Entry Capacity (LTSEC). Also known as Long-Term an auction process. 1 April 2013 period which runs from Ofgem price control to the current RIIO relates to as RIIO-T1. this is referred 2021. For National Grid Transmission to 31 March Term Oil & Gas UK Open Cycle Gas Turbine Open Cycle Gas Turbine On the Day Commodity Market Odourisation Office of Gas and Electricity Markets Operating Margins Own Use Gas Per annum Planning and Advanced Reservation of Capacity Agreement Planning Consent Agreement Projected Closing Linepack Projected Peak Day Demand Quarterly System Entry Capacity RIIO-T1 Acronym 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas OCGT OCM Ofgem OM OUG pa PARCA PCA PCLP QSEC Chapter seven Glossary 9 Appendix SRS SOR SOQ SO SNCWV SHQ SEPA SEAL Acronym Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 Therm Supply Point Supplier Substitution Short-Range Storage Strategic OptionsReport Supply Offtake Quantity System Operator System operability Variable Composite Weather Seasonal Normal Supply HourlyQuantity Shrinkage User Network Code(Shipper) Shipper orUniform Shale Gas Protection Agency Scottish Environment Shearwater ElginArea Line Safety Monitors Term
the kilowatthour(kWh). 1thermequals29.3071 An imperialunitofenergy. Largelyreplaced bythemetricequivalent: A group ofoneormore meterpointsatasite. is thensoldtoconsumers.Asuppliermayalso belicensedasashipper. A companywithasupplier’s licencecontractswithashipper to buygas,which assets ormaterialincreases inoperationalrisk. capacity quantitiesfortherelevant period.Thisavoids theconstructionofnew system pointstoanother, where demandforthatcapacityexceedstheavailable Capacity substitutionistheprocess ofmovingunsold capacityfrom oneormore and withdrawingwhenhigher. so canreact more quicklytodemand,injectingwhendemandorpricesare lower These are commercially operatedsitesthathaveshorterinjection/withdrawaltimes Grid inrelation tothecustomerrequest forNTSEntryorExitCapacity. reporting tothecustomeronfindingsofoptioneeringanalysisbyNational Output ofthePCA,ARCAandPARCA statutoryPlanningActactivities The maximumdailyconsumptionataSupplyPoint. Electricity Transmission andScottishPower. the electricitytransmissionsysteminScotland,whichisownedbyScottishHydro Forexample,NationalGridoperates not necessarilyowntheassetsconcerned. on aregional ornationallevel,usingfixedinfrastructure. UnlikeaTSO,theSOmay An entityentrustedwithtransportingenergyintheformofnaturalgasorpower parameters withinpre-defined limitssafely, economicallyandsustainably. The abilitytomaintainsystemstabilityandalloftheassetratingsoperational applicable CWVforthatdayinasignificantnumberofprevious years.(SeealsoCWV) The seasonalnormalvalueoftheCWVissmoothedaveragevalues Supply HourlyQuantity into storage.ItiseitherOwnUseGasorUnaccountedforGas. Gas thatisinputtothesystembutnotdelivered toconsumersorinjected sell ittoasupplierandemployGTtransportgasconsumers. A companywithaShipperLicencethatisabletobuygasfrom aproducer, publications/about-shale-gas-and-hydraulic-fracturing-fracking so thattheshalegascanbeextracted.https://www.gov.uk/government/ water, sandandchemicalsintotheshalerock tocreate cracksorfractures Shale gasisnaturalthatfoundinshalerock. Itisextractedbyinjecting The environmental regulator forScotland. The offshore pipelinefrom theCentralNorthSea(CNS)toBacton. procedures) inorder toprevent storagestocksreducing belowthislevel. National Gridisrequired totakeaction(whichmayincludeuseofemergency below therelevant monitorlevel(whichdeclinesasthewinterprogresses). and thetermsofitssafetycase.Total shippergasstocks shouldnotfall determined byNationalGridtomeetitsUniformNetworkCoderequirements now justasinglesafetymonitorforspaceandonedeliverability. Theseare operation ofthegastransportationsystemundersevere conditions.There is designed toensure thatsufficientgasisheldinstoragetounderpinthesafe large loadsfrom thenetwork.Theresultant storagestocksormonitorsare be isolatedfrom thenetworkandalsotosupportprocess ofisolating requirements determinedtobenecessaryprotect loadsthatcannot Safety Monitorsintermsofspaceanddeliverabilityare minimumstorage Definition kWh.
202 Chapter seven 203 Definition National Grid owns the gas National Transmission System (NTS) in Great Britain. System (NTS) in Great Transmission National Grid owns the gas National fit for purpose are all assets on the NTS sure As the TO National Grid must make schedules maintenance plans and asset replacement and safe to operate. Effective the gas flowing. developed and implemented to keep are The Transmission Planning Code describes National Grid’s approach to planning approach Planning Code describes National Grid’s The Transmission with its duties as a gas transporter and other and developing the NTS in accordance matters. The document to safety and environmental statutory obligations relating by the Gas and Electricity Markets Authority (GEMA). is subject to approval Operator of a Gas Transmission Network under licence issued by the Gas and Network under licence issued Operator of a Gas Transmission by Ofgem. and regulated Electricity Markets Authority (GEMA) 1,000,000,000,000 watt hours, a unit of energy. 1,000,000,000,000 watt hours, Gas “lost” during transportation. Includes leakage, theft and losses due to the method the to due losses and theft leakage, Includes transportation. during “lost” Gas Value. of calculating the Calorific A geographical, social and economic grouping of countries that contains England, of countries that contains England, grouping A geographical, social and economic Northern and Ireland. Scotland, Wales The UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) comprises those areas of the sea bed and subsoil of the sea bed and The UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) comprises those areas rights of exploration sovereign beyond the territorial sea over which the UK exercises and exploitation of natural resources. The Uniform Network Code is the legal and commercial framework that governs The Uniform Network Code is the legal and commercial in the UK and Shippers operating the arrangements between the Gas Transporters documents including the Transportation gas market. The UNC comprises different Arrangements Document (OAD). Principal Document (TPD) and Offtake Compressor technology where the drive speed can be varied with changes in technology where Compressor to constant speed compared speed drive compressors Variable capacity requirement. quietly by varying speed energy efficient and operate more more are compressors to match the workload. that has been adjusted to take account of the difference The actual demand figure between the actual weather and the seasonal normal weather. The WLP provides the criteria used to prioritise all of the options considered as part the criteria used to prioritise all of the options considered The WLP provides the WLP Model aids (NDP). The scoring from of the Network Development Process by discounting unsuitable options at an early stage of the decision-making process the NDP. Term Transmission Owner Transmission Transmission Planning Planning Transmission Code Transmission System System Transmission Operator Terawatt hour Terawatt Unaccounted for Gas United Kingdom of Great United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland United Kingdom Continental Shelf Uniform Network Code Variable Speed Drives Variable corrected Weather Whole Life Prioritisation Acronym 2016 November Statement Year Ten Gas TO TPC TSO TWh UAG UK UKCS UNC VSD WLP Chapter seven Disclaimer 3 Gas Ten Year StatementNovember2016 only and no warranty can be or is made as to to as made is or be can warranty no and only illustrative as considered be must information the that to emphasise wish would Grid National Grid. National to as referred be will plc Gas Grid National statement, this of remainder the of purpose the For statement. this in contained information other or forecast estimate, to any applies Principal document of the Uniform Network Code Network Code. Section O1.3 of the Transportation Transportation Principal document of the Uniform the Oof to section pursuant supplied information on Document of the Uniform Network Code in reliance Principal O4.1 Transportation the of section and System Transmission National to the relating Licence in Special Condition 7A accordance with National Grid Gas plc’s obligations in and of purpose the for produced is statement This or entering into transport arrangements, to identify and evaluate opportunities. evaluate and system toidentify toour connecting arrangements, transport contemplating into are who entering or companies, by used be can that developments system likely and usage system Special Condition 7A requires the Ten Year Statement, published annually, shall provide a ten-year forecast of transportation 3 of its Gas Transporter
Designs and Patents Act 1988. Act Patents and Designs Copyright, the of provisions the with accordance in without the written permission of National Grid except incidentally) or transiently not or whether and means electronic or medium any in restoring and photocopying may be reproduced in any material form (including site this or Document the of part No reserved. rights 2016, all Grid National Copyright incurred. losses or damages any for law) by permitted extent the (to is made of the information or Document which or which use any for responsibility any accept not does misstatement or fraudulent misrepresentation and fraudulent than other to rely seeks or relies Document this of recipient the which on opinion or misstatement or error any for liability any under be shall company such any of employees the nor directors, the nor group, Grid National the within companies other the Grid Electricity Transmission, National Grid Gas nor contained within the Document. Neither National the accuracy and completeness of the information 204 Continuing the conversation
Join our mailing list to receive email updates for GTYS or any of our Future of Energy documents. http://www.nationalgrid.com/updates
Email us with your views on GTYS at: [email protected] and we will get in touch. National Grid UK Access our current and past GTYS documents and data at: http://www.nationalgrid.com/gtys
Keep up to date on key issues relating to National Grid via our Connecting website: www.nationalgridconnecting.com
You can write to us at: Gas Network Development National Grid House Warwick Technology Park Gallows Hill @nationalgriduk Warwick CV34 6DA
National Grid
NationalGridUK National Grid plc National Grid House, Warwick Technology Park, Gallows Hill, Warwick. CV34 6DA United Kingdom Registered in England and Wales No. 4031152 www.nationalgrid.com