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Gas Ten Year Statement 2016 UK gas transmission NOVEMBER 2016 Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 How to use this interactive document To help you find the information you need quickly and easily we have published the GTYS as an interactive document. Home A to Z This will take you to the contents page. You will find a link to the glossary You can click on the titles to navigate on each page. to a section. Hyperlinks Arrows Hyperlinks are highlighted in bold Click on the arrows to move throughout the report. You can click backwards or forwards a page. on them to access further information. Previous view Click on the icon to go to the previous page viewed. Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 01 We are in the midst of an energy revolution. The economic landscape, developments in technology and consumer behaviour are changing at an unprecedented rate, creating more opportunities than ever for our industry. Our 2016 Gas Ten Year we enhance our approach to how Statement, along with our other we foresee the network evolving System Operator publications, to ensure we have the tools and aims to encourage and inform capability in place ahead of need. debate, leading to changes that ensure a secure, sustainable Complementing 2016’s GTYS and and affordable energy future. FES (Future Energy Scenarios) publications, National Grid will also GTYS 2016 continues to be an be producing for the first time the important part of how we engage Gas Future Operability Planning with you to understand the drivers (GFOP) document. With the ambition of change influencing your business, to look out to 2050, GFOP will begin so that we can continue to develop the first steps at articulating how the National Transmission System changing customer requirements and market framework in line with will affect the capability of the those needs. gas transmission system for both operations and its associated Although the key themes have processes. Alongside GTYS we remained unchanged over the are keen to get your views on the past 12 months, their importance inaugural GFOP publication, and remain crucial to us, in particular engagement activities are being how we respond to changing arranged to facilitate this. customer requirements, the impact of EU legislation on the market and I hope that you find both these infrastructure, and of course the documents, along with our other effect of Great Britain’s evolving System Operator publications, and dynamic gas market on useful as a catalyst for wider debate. system operations and planning For more information about all our into the future. publications, please see page 14. Our latest Future Energy Scenarios Please share your views with us; (FES) further emphasises the you can find details of how to importance of gas in GB’s energy contact us on our website http:// mix, continuing to play a key role www.nationalgrid.com/gtys by providing flexible generation to enable the growth of renewable sources of generation; and providing Andy Malins top-up heating in the longer term. Head of Network Capability It is fundamentally important that and Operations, Gas Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 02 Contents Executive summary ................................................03 Asset development ................................................116 Overview .....................................................................03 5.1 Introduction ............................................... 117 Key messages ............................................................05 5.2 Industrial emissions directive ...............118 Future GTYS editions and feedback ..........................06 5.3 Integrated pollution prevention Introduction .................................................................08 and control (IPPC) directive ...................119 1.1 What do we do? ..........................................08 5.4 Large combustion plant directive ........122 1.2 Future Energy Scenarios ..........................09 5.5 Medium combustion plant directive ....123 1.3 Key themes ..................................................10 5.6 Asset health review .................................123 1.4 Network development process .............. 11 5.7 Meeting future flow patterns .................124 1.5 GTYS chapter structure............................12 1.6 How does the Gas Ten Year Statement publication fit in? ...................14 1.7 How to use this document .......................16 Way forward ............................................................ 126 6.1 Continuous development of GTYS .......127 6.2 2015/16 stakeholder feedback and engagement ......................................128 Network development inputs ...............................18 2.1 Introduction .................................................19 2.2 Customer requirements ...........................21 2.3 Future energy scenarios ..........................38 2.4 Legislative change .....................................52 Appendix 1 – National Transmission System (NTS) maps ...........................................................................130 Appendix 2 – Customer connections and capacity, and the PARCA framework process ........................142 Appendix 3 – Meet the teams ..................................152 Appendix 4 – Actual flows 2015/16 .........................154 System capability ...................................................66 Appendix 5 – Gas demand and supply volume 3.1 Introduction .................................................67 scenarios...................................................................159 3.2 NDP – defining the need case .................68 Appendix 6 – EU activity ..........................................189 3.3 Customer capacity – exit ..........................69 Appendix 7 – Network development process ........192 3.4 Customer capacity – entry .......................86 Appendix 8 – Conversion matrix ..............................194 3.5 Impact of legislative change ...................92 Appendix 9 – Glossary .............................................195 System operation ...................................................96 4.1 Introduction .................................................97 4.2 What are system operator capabilities? ................................................. 98 4.3 Deciding between system operator capabilities and assets .............................99 4.4 Investing in our system operator capabilities ................................................101 4.5 Needs case review ...................................110 Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 03 Executive summary Overview The 2016 Gas Ten Year Statement (GTYS) In partnership with the 2016 GTYS, National provides an update on the current and future Grid will also be publishing the inaugural Gas challenges which impact the way we plan and Future Operability Planning (GFOP) document. operate the National Transmission System This will describe how changing customer (NTS). It also outlines what we are doing to requirements may affect the future capability address these challenges in our roles as the of NTS out to 2050, and the challenges these System Operator (SO) and Transmission may pose to NTS operation and processes. Owner (TO). The GFOP publication will enhance the way we respond to you and other market signals, Three themes continue to be a priority for us: leading to modifications in our decision customer requirements, legislative change and making and operational processes to ensure asset health. This year’s publication will again we continue to maintain a resilient, safe focus on these against the backdrop of the and secure NTS. current Future Energy Scenarios. Gas Future Operability Planning 2016 Gas Future Future Energy Scenarios Future Gas Ten Year Statement 2015 Year Gas Ten Gas Gas Ten Year Future Energy Future Operability Statement 2015 Scenarios Planning 2016 UK gas transmission UK gas and electricity transmission UK gas transmission National Grid plc National Grid plc National Grid plc National Grid House, National Grid House, National Grid House, Warwick Technology Park, Warwick Technology Park, Warwick Technology Park, Gallows Hill, Warwick. Gallows Hill, Warwick. Gallows Hill, Warwick. CV34 6DA United Kingdom CV34 6DA United Kingdom CV34 6DA United Kingdom Registered in England and Wales Registered in England and Wales Registered in England and Wales No. 4031152 No. 4031152 No. 4031152 www.nationalgrid.com NOVEMBER 2015 www.nationalgrid.com JULY 2015 www.nationalgrid.com NOVEMBER 2016 Gas Ten Year Future Energy Gas Future Statement Scenarios Operability Planning November 2016 July 2016 November 2016 Gas Ten Year Statement November 2016 04 Executive summary Continuing with the revised format used for requirements, future energy scenarios, last year’s document, GTYS 2016 is presented legislative change, and asset health bridging across the following sections (see Figure 0.1) the central three chapters of System Capability, with the aforementioned themes of customer System Operation and Asset Development. Figure 0.1 2016 GTYS structure 1. Introduction 2. NDP Triggers Customer Future Energy Legislative Asset Requirements Scenarios Change Health 3. System Capability Connections (new/existing) Entry and Exit Capacity System Flexibility Historic Evolution of Supply & Demand Supply & Demand Current Energy Scenarios Future MCP & BREF) IED (IPPC, LCP, Maintenance & Replacment Do nothing/impact on current network and SO capabilities Options to respond 4. System Operation SO Tool/ Capability Development 5. Asset
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