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Kyrgyz Republic Public Expenditure Review Policy Notes Report No. 89007 Kyrgyz Republic Public Disclosure Authorized Public Expenditure Review Policy Notes Pensions Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized May 2014 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit Europe and Central Asia Region Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank KYRGYZ REPUBLIC - GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of April 30, 2014) Currency Unit = Kyrgyz Som (KGS) US$1.00 = KGS 53.9615 Weights and Measures Metric System ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS DFID UK’s Department for International Development ECA Europe and Central Asia EU European Union FFDC Fully Funded Defined Contribution GDP Gross Domestic Product NDC Notional Defined contribution OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development PER Public Expenditure Review PAYG Pay-as-you-go PROST Pension Reform Options Simulation Toolkit SECO Swiss Economic Cooperation Organization Vice President: Laura Tuck Country Director: Saroj Kumar Jha Country Manager: Alexander Kremer (Acting) Sector Director: Roumeen Islam Sector Manager: Ivailo V. Izvorski Task Team Leader: Evgenij Najdov Policy Note Author: Tatyana Bogomolova Acknowledgements This note is part of the Kyrgyz Republic Programmatic Public Expenditure Review (PER) led by Evgenij Najdov (Task Team Leader) and K. Migara O. de Silva (co-TTL). The PER work was initiated by Orhan Niksic. Faruk Khan took over as task team leader from September 2012 to June 2013. K. Migara O. de Silva’s co-TTL-ship was uninterrupted with primary responsibility for the sector notes on wage bill management, public investments management and intergovernmental transfers. This note was prepared by Tatyana Bogomolova. The team benefited from advice and guidance from Anita Schwarz and Robert Palacios and comments from Helen Edmundson. Zakia Nekaien- Nowrouz, Sarah Nankya Babirye, Ewelina Lajch and Lilia Saetova provided technical and administrative support. The PER analysis has been conducted in close coordination with Government counterparts, with earlier drafts, power-point presentations, and workshops used to support a dialogue on public expenditure policy priorities facing the Kyrgyz Republic. The team is grateful to the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the Swiss Economic Cooperation Organization (SECO) for co-financing this programmatic Public Expenditure Review. iii Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................................... iii 1. Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Overview of the Current Pension System ........................................................................................................ 2 Summary of the Key Issues with the National Pension System.............................................................. 4 Current Status of the National Pension System ............................................................................................ 5 3. Projections of the Fiscal and Social Impact for the National Pension System: No-reform Scenario ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 4. Possible Reform Options ...................................................................................................................................... 17 Main Results of Proposed Reforms .................................................................................................................. 24 5. Remaining Issues ..................................................................................................................................................... 26 6. Conclusions: The Way Forward ......................................................................................................................... 27 References ................................................................................................................................................................................ 34 List of Annexes Annex 1. Main Parameters of the Kyrgyz Contributory Pension System ....................................................... 29 Annex 2. Main Assumptions and Projection Methodology ................................................................................... 30 List of Figures Figure 1. Central Government Budget Pension Spending....................................................................................... 5 Figure 2. Average Public Pension Expenditure by Region ..................................................................................... 6 Figure 3. Public Pension Spending versus Percentage of Population over 65 ............................................... 6 Figure 4. Total Old-Age Pensioners as Percentage of Population over 65 ....................................................... 7 Figure 5. Average Coverage Rates by Region ............................................................................................................... 8 Figure 6. Average Contribution Rates by Region ..................................................................................................... 11 Figure 7. Dependency Rates .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 8. Average Replacement Rates for New Old-Age Pensioners................................................................ 13 Figure 9. Average Replacement Rates for All Existing Old-Age Pensioners .................................................. 14 Figure 10. Pay-as-you-go System Financial Flows ................................................................................................... 15 Figure 11. Government Spending on Basic and Social Pensions ....................................................................... 16 Figure 12. Consolidated Public Pension Expenditures .......................................................................................... 16 Figure 13. Average Replacement Rates for New Old-Age Pensioners, Salaried Workers ....................... 18 Figure 14. Average Replacement Rates for All Existing Old-Age Pensioners ............................................... 19 Figure 15. Average Old-Age Pension as percent of Average Wage, Europe and Central Asia ............... 20 Figure 16. Social Fund (PAYG System) Annual Current Balance ....................................................................... 21 Figure 17. System Dependency Rate ............................................................................................................................. 21 Figure 18. Cost to the Government: Basic and Social Pension or Demogrant + PAYG Deficit Financing ............................................................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 19. Consolidated Public Pension Expenditures .......................................................................................... 23 iv List of Tables Table 1: Components of the National Pension System............................................................................................. 3 Table 2. Main Indicators of the National Pension System, 2011 .......................................................................... 3 Table 3. Benefit Indexation by Region .......................................................................................................................... 11 Table 4. Pay-You-Go System Finances, 2012-2016 projections ......................................................................... 15 Table 5. Summary of Reform Results ............................................................................................................................ 25 Table 6: Achievement of the reform objectives under various scenarios ...................................................... 26 v 1. Executive Summary 1. Today, the Kyrgyz pension system plays a major role in poverty alleviation of the elderly but this role is diminishing fast due to low coverage of working age population. The system currently provides pensions to more than 90 percent of the population over age 65 thus being a significant buffer against poverty. Over time, though, the poverty reduction effect of the pension system is expected to weaken substantially as the current low coverage rates among the working age population translate into much lower coverage rates of about only 60 percent for the future old age population. As a result, poverty rates among the old-age population will grow and government spending on social pensions will increase dramatically. 2. The cost of the system to the government, as well as to the working population, is already high and continues to grow rapidly. The consolidated public pension expenditures financed by the Social Fund and the state budget have increased over the past few years to a very high level of 8.2 percent of GDP in 2011, with continued growth to 11-12 percent projected over the next several decades. Government’s share in the total public pension expenditures has been increasing as well, mostly as a result of the on-going transfer of basic pension financing to the state budget, and is projected
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