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India and Central Asia India and Central Asia The Strategic Dimension P. Stobdan India and Central Asia The Strategic Dimension India and Central Asia The Strategic Dimension P. Stobdan KNOWLEDGE WORLD KW Publishers Pvt Ltd New Delhi Copyright © 2020 Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, Delhi Cantt. New Delhi-110 010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in ISBN 978-93-89137-46-0 Hardback Published in India by Kalpana Shukla KW Publishers Pvt Ltd 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Phone: +91 11 23263498/43528107 Marketing: [email protected] Editorial: [email protected] Website: www.kwpub.com Printed and bound in India The content of this book is the sole expression and opinion of its author(s), and not of the publisher. The publisher in no manner is liable for any opinion or views expressed by the author(s). While best efforts have been made in preparing the book, the publisher makes no representations or warranties of any kind and assumes no liabilities of any kind with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the content and specifically disclaims any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness of use of a particular purpose. The publisher believes that the contents of this book do not violate any existing copyright/intellectual property of others in any manner whatsoever. However, in case any source has not been duly attributed, the publisher may be notified in writing for necessary action. Contents Introduction vii 1. New Central Asia: Period of Geopolitical Transition 1 2. China’s Foray into Central Asia 58 3. America’s Strategic Tryst with Central Asia 76 4. Russia’s Rebound in Central Asia 82 5. The Rise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 90 6. Regional Security Challenges in Central Asia 125 7. India-Central Asia: Reflection on Ancient Linkages 166 8. Rebooting the Civilisational Connect 179 9. Central Asian Imprints on India 198 10. “Great Game” – The Interrupted Period 212 11. Reconnecting with Central Asian States 218 12. India’s Security Concerns in Central Asia 238 13. Energy Deal: Untying the Gordian Knot 259 14. Enhancing Strategic Engagement 279 15. Strategic Focus on Kazakhstan 288 16. Seizing New Opportunities Trade and Business Prospects 297 17. Regional Connectivity and Integration 313 18. India and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization 350 19. Widening Strategic Footprints Under the SCO Framework 390 vi | India and Central Asia 20. Eurasia – Region of Cooperative Rebalancing 418 21. Soft Power: Regaining Centrality with Modern Content 428 22. Meeting Future Challenges 443 Annexures 1. TejKadam: India–Kazakhstan Joint Statement 459 2. Joint Statement between Uzbekistan and India 467 3. Joint Statement between Turkmenistan and India 471 4. Joint Statement between Kyrgyzstan and India 477 5. Joint Statement between Tajikistan and India 484 6. Terrorist and Extremist Organizations Banned in SCO States 489 Index 493 Introduction The dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991 changed the geopolitical landscape of India’s strategic neighbourhood. Not only was the Soviet Union a great superpower that provided India with strong strategic support under the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation of August 1971, its geo- strategic presence in Central Asia served as one of the most critical components for India’s strategic calculus.1 Following the end of the Cold War – symbolised by the peaceful separation of Eastern and Central Europe, the Soviet empire and the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989 and the final collapse of the Warsaw Pact in 1990 – each of the USSR’s republics including the five republics of Central Asia, declared their independence or sovereignty and created their own armed forces. Uzbekistan declared sovereignty on June 20, 1990, Turkmenistan on August 22, 1990, Tajikistan on August 25, 1990, Kazakhstan on October 25, 1990 and Kirgizia on December 12, 1990. The Soviet Union finally ceased to exist on December 31, 1991 – the event was described by Russian President Vladimir Putin as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” For India the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of new republics of Central Asia presented it with a host of geopolitical challenges. As India re-examined Central Asia in the changed context, it had firstly found that its historical links with the region went back more than 2,500 years. Evidently, the developments in the Eurasian continent had decisively shaped much of the course of India’s political history. The ancient Indian texts referred to the challenges viii | India and Central Asia from nations lying beyond the Himalayas or the Hindukush as Uttara-kuru.2 Of course, there are many descriptions on the region in various Hindu-Buddhist texts that showed that since the days of Sakas or the Indo-Scythian tribes, the links between India and Central Asia remained uninterrupted.3 Secondly, the ancient texts also mentioned that the great trade- route known as Uttarápatha4 had connected the Indo-Gangetic plains with the southern fringe of Eurasian continent that passed ancient Takshashila and Gandhara (present-day Pakistan and Afghanistan). In fact, this southern part of Central Asia served as the biggest artery for the spread of Indian religion, philosophy, commerce, trade and science across Europe and Asia. In reality, the fabled Silk Route phenomenon was less about silk and more about transmission of Buddhism from India to China via Central Asia. The Silk Route was both a corridor and a vehicle on which philosophies, ideas, medicine, astronomy, mathematics, artistic and architectural styles and the art of diplomacy and statecraft travelled. Thirdly, Central Asia was perceived in India for its military context of being a staging ground for invasions into India. The ancient texts and treatises had referred to relentless threats emanating from the region Northwest of India. The great Indian epic, Mahabharata and ancient Pali texts give a vivid account of the dynamics of threats posed to India from the region. It seemed clear that almost every foreign invader including the Greeks, Turks and Mughals, barring the original Mongols, made their military ventures into India through the Central Asian steppes.5 Threats remained real even during the medieval times. In fact, until the Timurid period (14th century), the region was the epicenter of world’s power, whose dominance and influence pervaded throughout the region including India. Genghis Khan’s own descendant Tamerlane and Zahir-ud-Din Babur who emerged from the Ferghana Valley came to create havoc in India massacring thousands in Delhi alone. Babur later established the Mughal Dynasty in India in the 16th century. Introduction | ix During the 18th and 19th centuries, the extent of the Russian Empire had reached the northern peripheries, which led to the British Empire seeking a prolonged “Great-Game” play in Central Asia. British India’s security and frontier trade policies with East Turkistan and Afghanistan were some of the well-known strategic high-points. It appears clearly that the origin of much of Indian strategic thought had its genesis in Eurasian dynamics and continues to remain so, albeit in different forms. However, the events of contemporary history and the intense geopolitical rivalry may have led to almost total snapping of India’s age-old contacts with Central Asia. As if this was not enough, another geopolitical catastrophe of the partition of India and subsequent Pakistani occupation of parts of Kashmir finally led to direct physical disconnect that spelt the death knell for India’s northern outreach. In fact, this snapping of ties is still a reality – reflective from the fact that the total two-way trade with the whole region is little more than a paltry $1200 million. However, in the 20th century, India enjoyed a sense of comfort from the USSR’s grip of power over the vast stretch of Eurasian landmass. In fact, most Indians accepted the Soviet control of Central Asia as a positive historical phenomenon with enduring impact for India. This geo-strategic reality of India’s closeness to Russia did not alter even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. For India, maintaining the longstanding time-tested partnership with Russia therefore became imperative for its foreign and security policy as it heavily depended on weapon supplies from Russia for its defence purposes. However, the bonds between the two since then have undergone a rapid change with the change in global situation. The main spirit and rhythm of old Indo-Russian ties have inevitably been watered down in more than one way. As the economies of both countries had to undergo difficult periods of structural change, the foreign policy orientations of the two have also gone through significant transformation. Yet, the geo-strategic imperative of India’s proximity with the geographic space of Eurasia could not be pushed down beyond a x | India and Central Asia limit. In October 2000, President Vladimir Putin came down to New Delhi to sign the “Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership” (IRSP). However, the nature and structure of the IRSP did not carry the same obligatory and binding specificities as had entailed under the 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty. But, the status of the IRSP had to be elevated to the level of a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” (SPSP) in 2010 ostensibly to revive the old bonds and make them relevant to changing needs and aspirations.
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