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An Analysis of Broadband Services in Canada Competition, Regulation, and Investment

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An Analysis of Broadband Services in Canada Competition, Regulation, and Investment An Analysis of Broadband Services in Canada Competition, Regulation, and Investment PREPARED FOR Shaw Communications Inc. PREPARED BY Coleman Bazelon Renée Duplantis Agustin J. Ros August 30, 2018 This report was prepared for Shaw Communications, Inc. in connection with its participation in the Competition in Broadband Services market study commenced by the Competition Bureau. We acknowledge the valuable contributions of many individuals to this report and to the underlying analysis, including members of The Brattle Group for peer review. All results and any errors are the responsibility of the authors and do not represent the opinion of The Brattle Group or its clients. Copyright © 2018 The Brattle Group, Inc. Table of Contents I. Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 3 II. Introduction and Assignment ..................................................................................................... 4 III. Industry Background ................................................................................................................... 6 A. Competitive Landscape of the Canadian Broadband Industry ........................................ 6 B. Investment and Marketplace Outcomes ......................................................................... 11 C. Overview Of Reseller Obligations and Rate-Setting Mechanism ................................. 14 D. Role Of Resale In Providing Price Competition ............................................................ 17 IV. Future Developments: Continued Convergence and Platform Competition Between Wireline and Wireless Internet ................................................................................................ 20 A. Telecommunications Convergence and Platform Competition .................................... 20 B. Consumer Trends in Wireless And Wireline Networks ................................................ 24 C. 5G Rollout and Ability Of 5G To Compete With Wireline Broadband ....................... 27 D. Likely Impact Of a Change in Wireline Resale Regime on 5G Deployment and Competition...................................................................................................................... 31 V. Over-broad Regulation Would Diminish Incentives for Investment and Effect Efficiency in the Telecommunications Industry ..................................................................... 32 A. Dynamic Efficiency: Competition and Investment ........................................................ 32 B. Competition versus Regulation in Achieving Market Efficiency .................................. 34 C. Investment Incentives and the Economics of Regulation ............................................. 35 D. Understanding the Disincentive Effect: The Option Value of Investments in Infrastructure ................................................................................................................... 38 VI. Empirical Analyses of The Effect of Resale Requirements on Disincentives to Investment in Infrastructure .................................................................................................... 42 A. Levels of Investment Across Different Regimes ............................................................. 42 B. Modeling the Financial Returns from Decision to Invest in Broadband ...................... 44 C. Impacts of Resale Requirements on Future Investments ............................................... 46 VII. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 47 Appendix A. Curriculum Vitaes .................................................................................................. 49 Appendix B. Details of Shaw Profitability Model ...................................................................... 99 Appendix C. Exhibits to Analysis of Shaw Profitability ........................................................... 103 13 2| brattle.com I. Executive Summary 1. We have been asked by Shaw Communications Inc. (“Shaw”) to provide consulting services in connection with Shaw’s participation in the Competition in Broadband Services market study (“Market Study”) commenced by the Competition Bureau. The Market Study seeks comments from industry participants concerning the competitive dynamics of Canada’s broadband internet services industry. We understand that the Bureau is particularly interested in assessing the nature of non-facilities-based broadband competition (“resale broadband competition”), identifying any significant market imperfections to resale broadband competition, determining whether resellers’ current market share is economically appropriate, and considering whether modifications to resale regulations are advisable. 2. In the absence of significant market imperfections, consumer choices of wireline broadband suppliers appropriately reflect the economic value consumers place on the broadband supplier’s service offerings. Under those conditions, broadband suppliers have significant incentives to operate efficiently and invest in new technologies to develop new products and services that are attractive to consumers. After conducting an economic analysis of the Canadian wireline broadband market with a focus on resale broadband competition, we find that, as of today, there are no significant market imperfections hindering the ability of efficient resale suppliers to compete and win customers. Consequently, the current market share of resellers is consistent with a well-functioning market, rendering any additional resale regulations unnecessary. 3. In particular, our analysis highlights the technological evolution and convergence of wireline and wireless broadband markets in Canada, as well as the “technology competition” between fiber and coaxial broadband on the one hand and wireless LTE and nascent 5G on the other, and this trend is only likely to get stronger. We conclude that, in the context of this technology convergence, any additional resale obligations on wireline facilities-based broadband providers would further distort and bias this dynamic competition, delay facilities-based broadband investment, and lower overall economic efficiency in Canadian broadband markets. 4. Resale broadband competition in Canada is currently facilitated by a cost-based, resale regime imposed on both traditional telephone and cable operators. We have conducted an economic analysis of the effects this regime has had on facilities-based investment in broadband markets in general and in Canada, in particular. Specifically, we reviewed the 3| brattle.com economic literature on the role of resale and empirically analyzed the effects of different resale regulatory regimes on investment in current and future wireline technology and on current (LTE) and future (5G) wireless technology in Canada. We find that stringent regulation of facilities-based suppliers -- intended to aid resellers -- can have significant distortions on investment incentives that, in turn, can be exacerbated if those regulations ignore the full cost that resellers impose on facilities-based suppliers. 5. The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (“CRTC” or the “Commission”) explained that its “general approach towards wholesale service regulation has been to promote facilities-based competition wherever possible,” and concluded that facilities-based competition “is typically regarded as the ideal and most sustainable form of competition.”1 Our economic analysis supports this view and demonstrates the important role that facilities-based investment and competition plays in achieving economic efficiency in broadband markets in Canada. II. Introduction and Assignment 6. We have been retained by Shaw to draft this white paper in connection with Shaw’s participation in the Competition in Broadband Services market study commenced by the Competition Bureau in May 2018, which seeks comments from industry participants in respect of the competitive dynamics of Canada’s broadband internet services industry.2 7. Shaw has asked us to address several issues related to the third broad question in the Market Study: “How does regulation in this industry affect the economic behavior of broadband suppliers?” In particular, we address the following issues: • The implications of convergence between broadband internet and wireless (5G) and its relationship to optimal regulation in the broadband internet sector; • Whether the existing broadband resale regulations are producing efficient outcomes or, instead, should be amended to achieve a more optimal balance between the share of resellers and facilities-based investment; and 1 CRTC, Telecom Regulatory Policy 2015-326, July 22, 2015 at para 5. 2 Competition Bureau, Market Study Notice: Competition in Broadband Services, 2018 http://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/eic/site/cb-bc.nsf/eng/04360.html. 4| brattle.com • The impact of the resale regulations on investment decisions for facilities-based suppliers. 8. Our analysis indicates that competition from wireless broadband already is, and will continue to be, an important factor for internet markets in Canada and throughout the world. As discussed in detail below, where we review the roll-out of fifth generation wireless networks, given the trajectory of innovation in this product space, it is fair to anticipate that next-generation mobile technology will bring about even more
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