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Canadian Telecommunications Services RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Drew McReynolds, CFA, Caleb Ho, CPA, CFA CA, CPA (Analyst) (Associate) (416) 842-3805 (416) 842-3806 [email protected] [email protected] Riley Gray (Associate) (416) 842-4123 [email protected] August 31, 2020 Canadian Telecommunications Services August Channel Checks and Market Developments We summarize notable market developments within the Canadian telecommunications sector since July. For more detail on sector trends, please see our August 21, 2020 report entitled "Q2/20 Review - Wireless Competitive Intensity in Focus (Again)". EQUITY RESEARCH Notable sequential pick-up in promotional activity with what appears to be less back-to- school fanfare We observed a healthy dose of main brand promotional activity in August focused on the 20GB data bucket that was largely characterized by handset and plan pricing discounts, alongside what appears to be less YoY back-to-school promotional activity. On a sequential basis, promotional activity not surprisingly stepped up in August driven by incumbent responses to the launch of Shaw Mobile last month. Notably: (i) the iPhone 11 was offered on discount (~$520 off) by incumbent operators on refurbishing unlimited plans; (ii) in mid-August, while pricing on the promotional $80/20GB unlimited plans was momentarily increased to $85/20GB, $75/20GB pricing was re-introduced by all incumbents with this pricing remaining in-market through the end of August; (iii) in mid-August, TELUS launched a ‘Great Big Sale’ offering the aforementioned $75/20GB “Peace of Mind” plan (via 10GB of bonus data), promotional pricing of $85/20GB on its “Peace of Mind Connect” plan (which includes access for connected devices), and discounts on premium handsets and accessories; (iv) Rogers countered with discounts on premium handsets and accessories; (v) BCE and its flanker brand Virgin Mobile provided 10GB of free monthly data to current subscribers (source: iPhoneinCanada.ca); and (vi) BCE targeted its Internet customers with a $65/20GB unlimited wireless plan (source: MobileSyrup), and offered a win-back $45/25GB unlimited plan (source: RedFlagDeals). At the end of July, TELUS removed its headline 20GB unlimited data plan from its base “Peace of Mind” tier (previously offered at $80/20GB promotional pricing), which will now be available at minimum at the “Peace of Mind Connect” tier. Flanker brand promotional activity in August also intensified, with each operator offering a promotional $50/9GB plan (versus regular pricing of $50/4GB). Other notable promotions included: (i) Koodo offering $50 credits on its referral program; (ii) Public Mobile launching a limited time offer to give new customers a month’s worth of free service (source: MobileSyrup); (iii) Fido targeting existing customers with rich $55/10GB, $65/20GB and $75/30GB loyalty plans, and also offering select subscribers 5GB of free data; and (iv) an increase in gift-with-purchase (GWP) activity, although volumes continued to be down YoY (Exhibit 2). Incumbents looking to fill the void left by Internet resellers following the government decision On August 15, the federal government stated that the wholesale rate decision by the CRTC does not balance the policy objectives of the wholesale services framework and may undermine investment in high-quality networks (particularly in rural areas). The federal government will continue to monitor the CRTC proceedings (interventions have been received with the CRTC assessing deadlines and the need for additional processes). In response, smaller Internet providers announced rate increases (Teksavvy, Distributel, Start.ca) and the termination of services in various remote regions (Xplornet). Meanwhile, incumbent operators appeared to double-down on Internet promotional activity: (i) Rogers offered a $5/month credit across its Ignite Internet suite (which offsets the announced increase in Ignite bundling pricing by $6/month effective October), and offered (along with Fido) up to $150 of Amazon gift cards for new customers; (ii) TELUS offered a bundling discount of $10/month on its Internet plans over 12 months for TELUS and Koodo wireless subscribers; and (iii) BCE offered $150 prepaid cards across most of its Internet plans, with Virgin also offering up to $100 in bill credits. Otherwise, there were no notable changes to in-market core Internet pricing (Exhibit 3). Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). Disseminated: Aug 31, 2020 14:04ET; Produced: Aug 31, 2020 14:04ET All values in CAD unless otherwise noted. For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 4. Canadian Telecommunications Services Exhibit 1: Re-introducing $75/20GB promotional pricing Source: Company web sites Exhibit 2: Seeing a return in GWP activity but still down on a YoY basis 70 60 YoY normalization due to Back to School promotions 50 Q2 2019 40 Q1 2019 Q3 2019 30 20 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 10 Q3 2020 0 Number of Gift With Purchase Offers Available on Flanker Brands Flanker on Available Offers Purchase With ofGift Number Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week Week 16 Week 29 Week Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 17 Week 18 Week 19 Week 20 Week 21 Week 22 Week 23 Week 24 Week 25 Week 26 Week 27 Week 28 Week 30 Week 31 Week 32 Week 33 Week 34 Week 35 Week February March April May June July August Source: Company web sites August 31, 2020 2 Canadian Telecommunications Services Exhibit 3: Snapshot of in-market core Internet pricing across Canada $175 Does not reflect a $150 promotional credit of $5/month $125 $100 $75 Monthly Internet Pricing Internet Monthly $50 $25 $0 TELUS BCE Shaw TELUS BCE Rogers Shaw TELUS Shaw TELUS BCE Rogers 1.5Gbps 1Gbps 300Mbps 150Mbps Notes: (i) Speeds shown are download speeds; (ii) Pricing may not be directly comparable across companies due to various promotions (i.e., one-time credits) or differences in upload speeds Source: Company web sites August 31, 2020 3 Canadian Telecommunications Services Required disclosures Non-U.S. analyst disclosure Drew McReynolds, Riley Gray and Caleb Ho (i) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with the NYSE and/or FINRA and (ii) may not be associated persons of the RBC Capital Markets, LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Conflicts disclosures The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates. Distribution of ratings For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm's own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets' ratings of Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis. Distribution of ratings RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research As of 30-Jun-2020 Investment Banking Serv./Past 12 Mos. Rating Count Percent Count Percent BUY [Outperform] 776 51.63 238 30.67 HOLD [Sector Perform] 635 42.25 130 20.47 SELL [Underperform] 92 6.12 12 13.04 Conflicts policy RBC Capital Markets Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us on request. To access our current policy, clients should refer to https://www.rbccm.com/global/file-414164.pdf or send a request to RBC Capital Markets Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7. We reserve the right to amend or supplement this policy at any time. Dissemination of research and short-term trade ideas RBC Capital Markets endeavors to make all reasonable efforts to provide research simultaneously to all eligible clients, having regard to local time zones in overseas jurisdictions. RBC Capital Markets' equity research is posted to our proprietary website to ensure eligible clients receive coverage initiations and changes in ratings, targets and opinions in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be done by the sales personnel via email, fax, or other electronic means, or regular mail. Clients may also receive our research via third party vendors. RBC Capital Markets also provides eligible clients with access to SPARC on the Firms proprietary INSIGHT website, via email and via third-party vendors. SPARC contains market color and commentary regarding subject companies on which the Firm currently provides equity research coverage. Research Analysts may, from time to time, include short-term trade ideas in research reports and / or in SPARC. A short-term trade idea offers a short-term view on how a security may trade, based on market and trading events, and the resulting trading opportunity that may be available. A short-term trade idea may differ from the price targets and recommendations in our published research reports reflecting the research analyst's views of the longer-term (one year) prospects of the subject company, as a result of the differing time horizons, methodologies and/or other factors. Thus, it is possible that a subject company's common equity that is considered a long-term 'Sector Perform' or even an 'Underperform' might present a short-term buying opportunity as a result of temporary selling pressure in the market; conversely, a subject company's common equity rated a long-term 'Outperform' could be considered susceptible August 31, 2020 4 Canadian Telecommunications Services to a short-term downward price correction.
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