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AFRICA IS NOW: the Opportunity for Mid-Sized US Companies

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AFRICA IS NOW: the Opportunity for Mid-Sized US Companies EMERGING LEADERS PERSPECTIVES AFRICA IS NOW: The Opportunity for Mid-Sized US Companies By Ikbel Achour, Benjamin Bader, Ross Shelleman, Lisa G. Thomas, Shalini Unnikrishnan and Kuliva Wilburn June 2015 Executive summary While significant risks remain, we challenge those shying away from investing in Africa to consider the Africa has rapidly gained attention as the next invest- following arguments. First, many of the perceived risks ment hotspot and is being called “the final frontier.” are myths. Second, careful analysis will demonstrate A decade ago, the worldwide boom in investing in that Africa is not a monolith, and an informed investor emerging markets initially benefited Africa along with can find the right fit. Finally, this is not a journey that other regions, but today many African countries stand a mid-sized company has to take alone. Resources and out on their own as highly attractive investment op- expertise are increasingly available. portunities. The African continent is home to seven of This paper offers a framework that we call the PAL the top 10 fastest-growing economies in the world, and Principles—Be Prepared, Be Adaptive, and Be Local— foreign direct investment is rapidly increasing. created from discussions with experts to assist mid- European and Chinese companies of all sizes rec- sized US companies in developing and implementing ognized the African opportunity early on and have a a winning strategy for expanding to Africa. head start. Today, American companies are increas- Mid-sized US companies should not ignore Africa’s ingly discussing Africa as a business destination, transformation into a highly attractive business desti- yet many have not taken the leap. According to Josh nation. To capitalize on the burgeoning opportunities, Becker, cofounder and CEO of Impele Consulting the time to act is now. Group, “We are seeing tremendous growth in interest in Africa [from the US], but not the same growth in action. Companies take their notebooks but not their checkbooks.” As growth slows in more developed markets, geographic diversification is a logical next step for businesses of all sizes. Many African markets offer attractive opportunities for mid-sized companies, and as an early mover, a company stands to secure the most suitable options as well as the best talent, part- nerships, and incentives. THE CHICAGO COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS – 1 The Chicago Council on Global Affairs is an independent, nonpartisan organization. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion con- tained in this report are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Chicago Council on Global Affairs or of the project funders. All charts and other graphics by Ikbel Achour. Copyright © 2015 by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form (beyond that copying permitted by sections 107 and 108 of the US Copyright Law and excerpts by reviewers for the public press), without written permission from the publisher. For further information about The Chicago Council or this study, please write to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 332 South Michigan Avenue, Suite 1100, Chicago IL, 60604, or visit The Chicago Council’s website at www.thechicagocouncil.org. Table of Contents Executive summary . 1 Introduction: Where Africa stands today . 4 Chapter 1—Where Africa is heading . 6 Chapter 2—The opportunity for mid-sized US companies is now . 14 Chapter 3—Guiding principles for African expansion . 16 Conclusion . 22 Appendix: Resources to support expansion and investment . 22 Acronyms . 24 The Emerging Leaders Program . 25 Acknowledgments . 25 Author biographies . 26 Endnotes . 28 Bibliography . 30 Introduction—Where Africa stands today “The Indian Tiger and the Chinese Dragon have had 10 countries in North Africa, it also claims 500 million their days, and it’s now the African Lion’s turn.” 1 acres of tropical forest in the Congo Basin and 60 per- cent of the world’s uncultivated arable land.3 For decades the only news reported about Africa was While challenges still exist, Africa has become a bleak, creating a singular and distorted image of the source of optimism, progress, and economic oppor- continent. Terrorism, famine, political corruption, and tunity. The economies of many African countries are the proliferation of AIDS and other diseases dom- growing at unprecedented rates, following the tra- inated US media, driving the perceptions of many jectory of other fast-paced emerging markets such as Americans. Today, however, brighter and more varied China and India. A flourishing middle class, diversifi- narratives are changing those perceptions. cation of industry, and adoption of leapfrogging tech- Africa is the second largest continent in the world, nologies are other key factors propelling Africa onto with a total landmass greater than the United States, the world stage as the next great opportunity for busi- Europe, India, and China combined. There are 54 sov- ness. Companies who want to be a part of and benefit ereign countries, each with its own unique identity and from this massive transformation must act now. varying economic, social, and political structures. Over This report is based on research and interviews one billion people now live on the continent of Africa, with experts on doing business in Africa from both the with Nigeria topping the list as the most populous private and public sectors. It presents a comparison of country with more than 175 million people.2 English, Africa to other global regions and provides select exam- Arabic, French, or Portuguese are official or co-official ples from individual countries, regional groupings, and languages in every country, with numerous indige- industry segments to highlight the opportunity that nous languages such as Swahili and Hausa still widely exists for US middle-market companies among the 54 spoken. Of the non-native languages, English has the diverse countries on the African continent—each with largest number of speakers—approximately 700 mil- its own distinctive characteristics and prospects. lion. While Christianity and Islam are the dominant For purposes of this publication, the terms “mid- religions across the region, traditional African religions dle-market” or “mid-sized” firms refer to companies still play a significant role, with Judaism, Hinduism, with annual revenues between $50 million and $1 and Buddhism maintaining a minor presence. The cli- billion.4 The authors also employ the broadest defi- matic and ecological regions shaping Africa mirror the nition possible when referring to “investment” or diversity of the individual countries and their people. “expansion,” including the full range of strategic, oper- Though the continent is home to the largest desert ational, and financial options to tap into the various on earth, the Sahara Desert, which stretches across African markets. 4 – AFRICA IS NOW: THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MID-SIZED US COMPANIES Figure 1 Africa’s Diversity Morocco Tunisia Western Algeria Libya Egypt Sahara Mauritania Mali Africa is home to : Niger Senegal Chad Sudan Eritrea The Gambia Burkina Djibouti countries Faso 54 Guinea- Guinea Benin Bissau Côte Ghana Nigeria South Ethiopia 1.1 billion people d’Ivoire Central African Sierra Leone Cameroon Republic Sudan Togo Equatorial million people in the middle class Uganda 370 Liberia Guinea Kenya Somalia Congo Democratic Sao Tome Rwanda 52 urban cities ≥ 1 million people and Principe Republic Burundi Gabon of Congo Tanzania Seychelles Ocial languages (# of countries)* English (25), Arabic (12), French (21), Portuguese (6) Mozambique Population Angola size (mn) Zambia Malawi Other major languages (# of countries) 75 - 180 Zimbabwe Swahili (10), Hausa (8), Yoruba (2), Oromo (3) 20 - 50 Namibia Mauritius 10 - 19 Botswana *A country may have more than one ocial language 1.9 - 8 Swaziland Madagascar 0.09 - 1.7 South Africa Lesotho Africa is the 2nd largest continen t 5 diverse regions 60% of the world’s arable land Larger than 18 countries US Northern Sahara desert combined, India Semi-desert Western including US, China Grasslands/Scrub Eastern China, India, and Sub- Savanna Saharan most of Europe Central Moutain forest/woodland (30,221,000 km2) Southern Tropical rainforest Economic drivers and enablers A vibrant private sector Committed governments 400,000 companies 45 countries show registered in 2013 improved governance Africa is the 2.5 trillion 2nd most in GDP 32 countries had 29 countries require attractive 57 billion 2+ tech hubs in 2014 ≤15 days to open a business investment in FDI destination worldwide 30 countries using 51 countries undertaking mobile money services 3+ national and/or intraregional infrastructure projects Source: AfDB, 2014; Ernst & Young, 2014; The Infrastructure Consortium for Africa, 2014; UNCTAD, 2015; World Bank, 2015. THE CHICAGO COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS – 5 Chapter 1—Where Africa is heading The African continent is an attractive region for porting cocoa. The move has compelled three multi- investment. national companies—Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, and Olam—to pay more attention to the region.9, 10 Massive population growth and a rising middle class In addition, as African populations continue to grow, have created millions of new consumers hungry for goods and services will be needed domestically to keep products and services. A variety of economic, politi- up with demand. Regional trade has also been growing cal, and social transformations in Africa are creating and reached $147 billion in 2012,11 including nearly 13 investment opportunities for the next stage of the percent of African exports. region’s growth. Many African countries have insti- tuted meaningful reforms in their governance and An improving investment environment is investment frameworks. New technologies are being increasing capital flow to the region. developed to solve unique challenges in health care, infrastructure, power, and agriculture. Incentives for According to Ernst & Young’s most recent survey of investment are emerging every day.
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