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Globalization Unwinding

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Globalization Unwinding usage soars in countries with large deposits, leading to unprecedented levels of carbon emissions. SOME KEY ELEMENTS ■ Natural resource exploitation accelerates. Short-term profits trump sustainability, while few consumers care. DEMOGRAPHICS ■ Population growth, increasing climate volatility, and ■ Aging populations are a significant fiscal burden for accelerating deforestation raise the pressure on world water Japan and Europe. Most accept that it will be impossible to supplies, leading to regional and domestic conflicts. NGOs try THE WORLD IN 2020: grow their way out of the problem—real labor and welfare to fill the void left by the extinction of the international reforms are being considered. institutions that formerly refereed water conflicts. ■ Unemployed youth are ideal recruits for religious and ■ Areas rich in precious metals and stones are prone to GLObaLIZATION nationalist militancy, especially where high youth unemploy- conflict, due to buoyant prices and weak states. Several ment and a young population combine—as in the Middle governments have lost control of these areas to their own UNWINDING East and parts of Africa. militaries, rebel groups, or foreign investors backed by ■ Global health crises occur often and are compounded by mercenaries. declining living conditions, collapsing health systems, Economic growth has been slow worldwide, averaging less than 2 percent for more than a reduced inoculations, and slow reactions from the SECURITY AND SOCIAL COHESION decade. US foreign policy has become isolationist, and since no other power is capable of international community. ■ The world is divided by nationalist, religious, playing the role of global policeman, small-scale conflicts are difficult to prevent or contain. ■ Cross-border labor migration is highly restricted, temporary, ethnic, and ideological tensions. In these uncertain times, Weaker states have collapsed, as economic pressure translates into domestic unrest, while and tightly supervised because of domestic concerns about individuals have returned to old values to guide them. other states have resorted to authoritarianism or populism in order to stay in power. jobs and cultural identity. Individuals affiliate by religion, race, ethnicity, and other ■ Refugees from collapsing states are a destabilizing factor in shared interests. Costs of military interventions, energy price volatility, and years of deficits brought a sharp host countries, most of which are in the developing world. ■ Islam is spreading in Asia and among disaffected groups contraction in the US economy, and the consequent dollar crisis triggered a global economic in Europe and Africa. Muslims now make up more than 17 downturn. Europe and Japan lacked the dynamism to lead the world out of recession, while the GOVERNANCE percent of Europe’s population. Christian movements have growth engines of China, India, Korea, and other “emerging economies” all stuttered—as did those ■ The United States adopts an isolationist foreign policy become less tolerant of secular values. of Russia and Latin America. While the major industrialized nations had the scale, savings, and after non-state actors, using whatever weaponry they can ■ Populist and authoritarian regimes have built durable safety nets to mitigate the worst effects of the downturn, most developing countries were less obtain, become the primary protagonists in conflicts around governments by turning religious and ethnic movements fortunate. Institutions that had taken decades to build only took months to unwind—and many the world. The global power vacuum leads to a fragmentation to their favor. developing countries appear to be reopening debates about governance, economic policy, and of power—global cooperation is rare even where win-win ■ Instead of promoting greater understanding and knowledge individual freedoms that seemed resolved decades previously. solutions are clearly possible. of other cultures and peoples, communications technologies ■ As the United States withdraws from all areas where its increasingly enable like-minded groups to communicate with Although the United States remains militarily unchallengeable, the costs of military interventions— troops might be targets, others allies are pushed to take members and to isolate themselves from others. financial, human, and reputational—have become very high in the eyes of the American public. more military responsibility, but with little effect. ■ Local and regional conflicts have grown enormously in Confronted by popular demands for isolationist policies, the US leadership uses its power seldom, ■ The North Atlantic alliance is degenerating. The United States number and scope, while alliances among regional powers selectively, and at a distance—and steadfastly refuses to be drawn into even medium-term blames Europe for not supporting its decisions related to are becoming increasingly unpredictable and dangerous. engagements. The resulting power vacuum has created a geopolitical fragmentation that remains a resources, religion, and ideology in the Islamic world, while ■ Collapsed states provide shelter to global criminals, ranging major driver of world events: myriad conflicts over natural resources, ethnicity, territory, and religion Europe blames the United States for raising Muslims’ ire from narco-terrorists to digital media pirates. are ongoing. No global leader is willing to step in and guarantee a peace process. against the West. Discussions to revitalize the alliance have ■ Polyglot states that are home to many different ethnic and been abandoned over differences regarding the appropriate religious groups are in danger of disintegration. The North Atlantic alliance is effectively over. The tension between Europe and the United States use of military force. ■ Access to nuclear and biological weapons by rogue states continues to grow as the two powers remain divided about how to deal with the geopolitical and ■ National governance takes different turns: and private groups poses an ongoing security threat. security problems of the world. As US isolationism has grown, the benefits to cooperation have ■ Governance is undermined in many developing countries. declined for the European Union. Even more important, because Europe is literally in the middle of ■ Weak institutions are exposed; failed states increase in SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY the world’s religious and ideological divides, it has avoided taking sides. number; and refugees stream across borders. ■ Overall levels of investment fall due to low corporate profits ■ As government reemerges as a major economic actor, and tight government budgets. A deep-seated cynicism about the value of free markets prevails in the world, and economic corruption soars. ■ Investments are focused on the problems of rich-country decisions are generally focused on short-term returns. Protectionism grew rapidly following the ■ Local elites rely on a mix of populism, nationalism, and elites—primarily security, health, and lifestyle. downturn. Countries are now starting to explore deepening bilateral and regional trade relationships, authoritarianism to stay in power. ■ Pharmaceutical companies have turned away from the but the heady days of global economic integration are long gone. Nationalism, populism, authoritari- ■ Religious and other affinity organizations become important search for cures for widespread or emerging diseases, anism, and fundamentalism all thrive as the public seeks an alternative to its lost faith in globaliza- providers of social services. focusing instead on the health needs of the relatively tion. Security and terrorism remain key items on the global agenda. prosperous aging populations of developed countries. The NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT search for short-term gain diverts resources from research The path to recovery looks difficult. Politicians continue to respond to domestic pressure for ■ Global environmental issues languish on the back burner. and innovation. measures aimed at insulating them from the global economy. Firms are reluctant to invest across No one is willing to make trade-offs, particularly where short- ■ Patent and copyright disputes escalate, and a vicious cycle of regions, as they struggle to earn profits from technologies and investments that were designed for term sacrifice would be required for longer-term benefits. patent-breaking further reduces foreign investment. Despite an era of global production and distribution. The core issue to recovery is trust: how to rebuild trust There is little agreement about solutions across countries. huge investments in digital security, software, music, and first in governments and economies, and then across countries, regions, and peoples. ■ Developing countries remain unwilling to cut their use of less movies are routinely pirated. The pirated versions often beat efficient energy sources, such as biomass and coal. Coal the legitimate versions to market. ANNEXES GLOBAL ECONOMY ■ The European Union attempts social reforms, decreasing welfare ■ A sharp economic downturn has worldwide effects—a vicious benefits, relaxing labor markets regulations, and enhancing cycle of insecurity, strident domestic politics, and poor economic fiscal flexibility. policy prevents economic correction and a resumption of global ■ A new G20 emerges to replace the defunct G7. It fails to steady, growth. In the absence of economic growth, poverty grows. let alone increase, global growth. ■ Trust in global economic integration evaporates as protectionism ■ Europe, Japan,
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