DOCSLIB.ORG

Polarity in Contemporary International Politics: a Uni-Interpolar Order?

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Polarity in Contemporary International Politics: a Uni-Interpolar Order? Polarity in Contemporary International Politics: A Uni-interpolar Order? by OLUWASEUN EMMANUEL TELLA (212561272) Supervisor: Dr. Khondlo Mtshali Submitted in fulfilment of the academic requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Political Science) in the Graduate Programme in the College of Humanities, School of Social Sciences, of the University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa. November 2014 Declaration I, Oluwaseun Emmanuel Tella (Student Number 212561272), declare that: 1. The research reported in this thesis, except where otherwise indicated, is my original work. 2. This thesis has not been submitted for any degree or examination at any other university. 3. This thesis does not contain other persons’ data, pictures, graphs or other information, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from such persons. 4. This thesis does not contain other persons' writing, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other researchers. Where other written sources have been quoted, then: a. Their words have been re-written but the general information attributed to them has been referenced; b. Where their exact words have been used, then their writing has been placed in italics and inside quotation marks, and referenced. 5. This thesis does not contain text, graphics or tables copied and pasted from the Internet, unless specifically acknowledged, and the source being detailed in the thesis and in the References sections. Oluwaseun Tella (Student) ___________________ _______________ Signature _____________ Date Khondlo Mtshali (Supervisor) ___________________ _______________ Signature _____________ Date i ABSTRACT Reference to the structural impact of the emergence and resurgence of new and old great powers in international politics is common in the literature on international politics. This study has attempted to explore this subject matter by investigating the hard and soft power currencies of the great powers. The study relied on both primary and secondary sources of data to solicit dependable data on the subject matter. The researcher relied on content and historical analysis to for meaningful assessment of the research themes. The study is explored through the lenses of the balance of power and multilateralism. The study found that the emerging powers, most especially the BRIC countries (in particular China) are making conscious attempts to invest both in their soft and hard power resources to narrow the gap between them and the United States in terms of power resources and influence. The study also found out that the model appropriate to describe today’s polarity must take into cognisance the major features of contemporary international politics which include the United States’ relative decline, the emergence and resurgence of new and old players and the comprehensive interdependence that characterises international politics in the 21st century. Thus, the study concludes by proffering that uni- interpolarity (a hybrid of Huntington’s uni-multipolarity and Grevi’s interpolarity) is the model that adequately captures the major features of contemporary international politics. Key words: polarity, soft power, balance of power, interdependence ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Writing is by its nature a solitary activity; responding to the polarity in contemporary international system was by its nature a social undertaking. Thus, even in the deepest solitude, I depended on the support and input of many others. And while the faults and omissions are mine alone, this thesis could not have been written without my supervisors and colleagues on whose support I relied. I must especially thank my supervisor, Dr. Khondlo Mtshali who gave me ideas, criticism and new insights. Without the tireless labour and support of Dr. Mtshali, it is doubtful this thesis would have been completed. My appreciation also goes to my proofreader, Kim Ward, whose fingerprints appear on almost all the pages of this dissertation. I owe a profound debt of gratitude to my aunt, Mrs Karimot Faluade and her entire family members for providing me with the necessary support during my sojourn in this country (South Africa). Fortunately, I benefitted from my association with wide range of friends and colleagues such as Adeoye Akinola, Bola Eniola, Olusola Ogunnubi, Hakeen Onapajo, Mbali Gwacela, Ridemptor Rwenbagira and Tony Oyowe to whom I would like to express my appreciation. Finally, I thank my family – my father, mother, brother and sister for providing me with invaluable moral support. Writing this thesis was expectedly a protracted and sometimes painful process. In order to persevere, it helps immensely to have strong support at home as well as in the intellectual environment. I was fortunate to have both. iii DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to the almighty God, the perfect and omnipotent and omniscient originator and ruler of the universe. iv Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ iii Dedication ...................................................................................................................................... iv Acronyms ....................................................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER ONE Introduction..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background to the study ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of the problem ...................................................................................................... 6 1.3 Research hypothesis .............................................................................................................. 7 1.4 Research questions and objectives ........................................................................................ 8 1.5 Broader issues to be investigated .......................................................................................... 8 1.6 Research methodology and methods .................................................................................... 9 1.7 Data collection .................................................................................................................... 10 1.7.1 Primary sources ............................................................................................................ 10 1.7.2 Secondary sources ........................................................................................................ 12 1.8 Data analysis ....................................................................................................................... 12 1.9 Limitations .......................................................................................................................... 12 1.10 Delimitations/scope........................................................................................................... 12 1.11 Structure of dissertation .................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER TWO A Review of Related Literature .................................................................. 16 2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Unipolarity: The primacy of the United States ................................................................... 17 2.3 Multipolarity: The rise of emerging powers ....................................................................... 25 2.4 Alternative models: Uni-multipolarity, nonpolarity and interpolarity ................................ 33 2.5 An assessment ..................................................................................................................... 39 2.7 The United States and China’s soft power .......................................................................... 45 2.8 Theoretical and conceptual frameworks ............................................................................. 48 2.9 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 55 CHAPTER THREE The Twentieth Century World Order ................................................... 58 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 58 v 3.2 The growth of multipolar order ........................................................................................... 59 3.3 France, Britain and Europe in the nineteenth century ......................................................... 61 3.4 The First World War ........................................................................................................... 67 3.5 The Second World War ...................................................................................................... 71 3.6 The cold war and the bipolar order ..................................................................................... 75 3.6.1 The cold war in Asia .................................................................................................... 78 3.6.2 The cold war in southern Africa
Load more

Recommended publications
  • On the Unravelling of Global Nuclear Order | R.Rajaraman
    NATIONAL SECURITY A VIF Publication Instructions for authors On the Unravelling of Global Nuclear Order R. Rajaraman Rajaraman, Ramamurti, “On the Unravelling of Global Nuclear Order” National Security, Vivekananda International Foundation Vol.III (2) (2020) pp.198-212. https://www.vifindia.org/sites/default/files/national-security-vol-3-issue-2-article-RRajaraman.pdf • This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub- licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. • Views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the VIF. • The author certifies that the article/paper is original in content, unpublished and it has not been submitted for publication/web upload elsewhere and that the facts and figures quoted are duly referenced, as needed, and are believed to be correct. Article On the Unravelling of Global Nuclear Order R. Rajaraman Abstract There is a growing concern among many, particularly the liberals, that the nuclear order constructed with great effort among the nuclear weapon states is unravelling. These apprehensions have increased with the assumption of the US Presidency by Donald Trump. This article describes the main elements of the nuclear order as it existed until a few years back. It then describes the various developments that have contributed to its allege break down. It thereafter underlines that while both the Order and its undoing have primarily to do with the two leading powers, the US and Russia, it also affects other nations.
    [Show full text]
  • Canada and the Cold War P6
    By: Ryleigh Johnson ¡ The Union Nationale Coming to Power: § Came about in 1936 when it won the provincial election. § The leader was Maurice Duplessis, a lawyer. He almost single-handly brought down the Liberal government of Louis-Alexandre Taschereau. § Union Nationale defended provincial autonomy, conservatism, economic liberalism and rural life. § Brought on new reforms as they promised. § One of the most important was Office du crédit agricole (farm credit board) in 1936 that helped farmers save their farms from bankruptcy. § They pushed many plans that were announced during the election into the background. § Duplessis dissolved the Legislative Assembly in 1939 and called an election. § The Liberal Party of Adélard Godbout won the election making the Union nationale become the official opposition. § This was seen as a very bad political move. ¡ The Union Nationale Reign: § Returned to power in 1944 after accusing both the provincial and the federal Liberals of betraying Québec and violating its rights. § The Union Nationale received fewer votes than the Liberal Party but won an absolute majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly. § Began the 15 year reign. § Quebec experienced an industrialization and urbanization boom during this time. § Economic issues-the government advocated development at all costs. § Social issues-the government was very conservative. § Did not believe in ANY form of government intervention. ¡ Emphasized Three Points to Their Program: 1. Duplessis gave generously to his province. 2. Union nationale's achievements were impressive. 3. The Union nationale provided a solid line of defence against the federal government. ¡ Decline: § In 1959 Duplessis died. § Paul Sauvé then led the party until his death four months later.
    [Show full text]
  • An Epistemological Voyage of the Impact of America's Hegemonic Power on the Sociopolitical Stability of the Global Structure
    Pinisi Journal of Art, Humanity and Social Studies Vol. 1 No 2, 2021. Page 13-20 e-ISSN : 2747-2671 Homepage: https://ojs.unm.ac.id/pjahss/index An Epistemological Voyage of the Impact of America's Hegemonic Power on the Sociopolitical Stability of the Global Structure. Isenyo Ogaba Solomon Department of Philosophy, Faculty of management Sciences, Arts and Humanities, Federal University Wukari, Taraba state, Nigeria. * [email protected] Abstract This work is an attempt at digging into the origin and source of America's hegemonic influence on the international system from the post-world wars era till date. The research uncovered that the quest for globalization and development of science and technology to actualize it, are not unconnected with America's overwhelming influence on the sociopolitical and economic structures of Nations of the world. Also, the impacts of the first and second world wars necessitated the need for countries to improve on their military weaponry techno-scientific wise in order to remain relevant in the wake of global industrialization in all spheres of life. The paper concluded that, though, America's Hegemonic Power and influence is seriously threatened by various attacks on her sociopolitical, economic and geographical structures. However, America's hegemonic influence within the globe via structuralism, soft power and hard power in the 21st century, cannot be overemphasized. Keywords: Epistemological Voyage, America's Hegemonic Power, Sociopolitical Stability, Global Structure 1. INTRODUCTION monarch, more specifically that of 4th century The idea of American hegemony is as old as Macedonia (Dutkiewicz & Gutorov 2019). It is a word Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of the used by social scientists to describe leadership within a United States of America but it has its practical roots in system of competing states.
    [Show full text]
  • International Intervention and the Use of Force: Military and Police Roles
    004SSRpaperFRONT_16pt.ai4SSRpaperFRONT_16pt.ai 1 331.05.20121.05.2012 117:27:167:27:16 SSR PAPER 4 C M Y CM MY CY CMY K International Intervention and the Use of Force: Military and Police Roles Cornelius Friesendorf DCAF DCAF a centre for security, development and the rule of law SSR PAPER 4 International Intervention and the Use of Force Military and Police Roles Cornelius Friesendorf DCAF Published by Ubiquity Press Ltd. 6 Osborn Street, Unit 2N London E1 6TD www.ubiquitypress.com Text © Cornelius Friesendorf 2012 First published 2012 Transferred to Ubiquity Press 2018 Cover image © isafmedia Editors: Alan Bryden & Heiner Hänggi Production: Yury Korobovsky Copy editor: Cherry Ekins ISBN (PDF): 978-1-911529-31-6 ISSN (online): 2571-9297 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/bbo This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (unless stated otherwise within the content of the work). To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by/4.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 444 Castro Street, Suite 900, Mountain View, California, 94041, USA. This license allows for copying any part of the work for personal and commercial use, providing author attribution is clearly stated. This book was originally published by the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF), an international foundation whose mission is to assist the international community in pursuing good governance and reform of the security sector. The title transferred to Ubiquity Press when the series moved to an open access platform. The full text of this book was peer reviewed according to the original publisher’s policy at the time.
    [Show full text]
  • How to Pay for the Global Policeman
    How to Pay for the Global Policeman By David Hale As appeared in the Financial Times on November 21st, 1990 With or without war, the Gulf crisis of 1990 is likely to go into the history books as a watershed event in US international relations. In political and economic histories, it will be viewed as the precedent-setting exercise which turned the US military into an internationally-financed public good. The crisis has brought into focus all the economic contradictions created by the western world's lingering dependence upon US military power. The Bush administration has deployed more than 300,000 troops in the Gulf region - a number over three times greater than all of America's allies combined, including Saudi Arabia. This ratio is not dissimilar to the one which prevailed during the Korean War 40 years ago despite the tremendous economic revival which has occurred in Europe and Japan during the intervening years. But while the Gulf operation proves that the US is not a marginal power, it is unfolding against a backdrop of domestic economic crisis which could curtail US willingness to act as a global policeman. The 1991 federal deficit could exceed Dollars 300bn if the US economy experiences only a mild downturn. Because of German unification costs and reduced investment outflows from Japan, the US Treasury must now compete for funds in a far more crowded global capital market than prevailed during the early Reagan years, when the US was the world economy's de facto borrower and spender of last resort. As a result, there is a serious risk that Congress will create a global security vacuum by slashing US defense spending more quickly than other countries are prepared to increase their own.
    [Show full text]
  • NATO's Eastern Agenda in a New Strategic
    NATO’s Eastern Agenda in a New Strategic Era F. Stephen Larrabee Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited R Project AIR FORCE The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-C-96-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Larrabee, F. Stephen. NATO’s Eastern agenda in a new strategic era / F. Stephen Larrabee. p. cm. “MR-1744.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3467-7 (pbk.) 1. North Atlantic Treaty Organization—Military policy. 2. Former communist countries—Military relations—Europe. 3. Europe—Military relations—Former communist countries. 4. United States—Military policy. 5. World politics—21st century. I. Title. UA646.8.L37 2003 355'.031'0918210947—dc22 2003017570 Cover photo courtesy of NATO photos, www.nato.int. Press Point between President Vaclav Havel (right) and NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson (left) at the Prague Castle. RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2003 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval)
    [Show full text]
  • Self-Determination Movements in the Former Soviet Union
    SOVEREIGNTY AFTER EMPIRE Self-Determination Movements in the Former Soviet Union Galina Starovoitova UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE CONTENTS Key Points v Foreword ix 1 Introduction 1 2 Contemporary Nationalism and the Problem of Self-Determination 3 3 Hopes and Disappointments: Case Studies 9 4 Approaches of Decision Makers: Interviews with Mikhail Gorbachev, Jack Matlock, Sam Nunn, and Margaret Thatcher 30 5 Criteria for Self-Determination 36 6 Conclusion 39 Notes 41 Acknowledgments 43 About the Author 45 About the Institute 47 v on case studies and the observations of political lead- ers and top-level foreign policy officials. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CONTEMPORARY NATIONALISM Contrary to the scenarios of global integration, nation- alism has not weakened in global society, but has, in KEY POINTS fact, gained strength. National feelings are rooted in the idea of a linguistic, religious, and psychological community based on the ancient kinship of the mem- bers of a given ethnic group. Only a powerful internal security apparatus could maintain the Soviet Union’s facade of a multinational socialist federation, so it is not surprising that the em- pire disintegrated upon communism’s discreditation. The Soviet republics exercised their right to secede soon after the August 1991 putsch. Holding a status below the union republics in the Soviet hierarchical system, autonomous territories were not so privileged. INTRODUCTION THE UNATTAINABLE RIGHT TO SELF- DETERMINATION The “right” to self-determination has recently reemerged as the focus of much debate, as its fulfill- At a time when ethnic groups are striving to affirm ment—or denial—quite often results in mass violence.
    [Show full text]
  • Waves of Empire US Hegemony and Imperialistic Activity from the Shores of Tripoli to Iraq, 1787–2003
    Waves of Empire US Hegemony and Imperialistic Activity from the Shores of Tripoli to Iraq, 1787–2003 Julian Go Boston University abstract: Is there a relationship between the global hegemonic position of the US on the one hand, and imperialistic activities such as war-making, sending troops abroad, colonial annexation and/or temporary military occupation? In an attempt to offer a preliminary answer to this question, this article offers a novel longi- tudinal analysis of US imperialistic activities from 1787 to 2003, and shows that America’s imperialistic activity has been punctuated by waves of high amplitude and frequency. The article also shows that each of these waves correspond to different phases in America’s career. Specifically, they are associated with America’s movement from regional to hemispheric to global dominance and, ulti- mately, to its decline from its prior hegemonic status. The analysis offers prelim- inary support for a new theory of the relationship between hegemony and imperialistic activity. keywords: American empire ✦ hegemony ✦ imperialism ✦ United States ✦ world-system Introduction Various views on ‘American empire’ have proliferated since America’s invasion of Iraq in 2003. The views run between two poles. At one end, popular writers such as Max Boot and Niall Ferguson suggest that America’s recent interventions into the Middle East are neither surpris- ing nor negative. Not only are they necessary for the ‘war on terror’, they are also the proper manifestations of America’s hegemonic status. As the US remains the world’s unrivaled economic and military power, it should use its power for good – just as the British did during their period of hegemony.
    [Show full text]
  • The West's Ukraine Crisis a Recipe for Global Disaster
    Specia l editioN of th e atla Ntic tim eS November 2014 Berlin, Germany In this issue Ukraine unrest 2 Putin’s annexation of Crimea and his support for the East- Lame duck? ern rebels may have pushed Ukraine more decisively to Aggressive bear? the West than ever before. But the pro-Western image of Assertive dragon? Ukraine's new president will not be enough to overcome the divisions in the country and pages 3-6 a hard-hit economy, argues Klaus Müller. Russian revisionism 3 After almost a quarter of a century of democracy, Russia is reverting to a totalitarian state, writes Aleksandr Golts. He believes Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy is plunging the world into a new Cold War. A right-wing threat 4 Russia has been riding a wave of patriotic fervor. Vladi- mir Putin thought he could ablo Martinez Monsivais Martinez ablo control it. But now the ultra- p right nationalists are breath- hoto/ p ing down his neck. Michael ap Thumann asks whether the Kremlin leader can squeeze the right-wing genie back into the bottle. alliance/ picture Balancing act 5 Is conflict inherent in US-China relations? Can Beijing’s rise be accomplished peacefully? Theo The West’s A recipe for Sommer looks to the Asia- Pacific, site of the world’s most perilous flashpoints. Non-combatants 9 Ukraine crisis global disaster In the post-ISAF era in Afghanistan, the German mili- Russia’s revisionism marks a post-Cold War The Ukraine conflict is a challenge not just tary will keep its last base near paradigm shift | By Michael Rühle for Europe | By Wolfgang Ischinger the northern city of Mazar-i- Sharif.
    [Show full text]
  • A World Without America?
    June 2017 A World without America? TINA BYLES WILLIAMS CIO & CEO The “Great Modulation’s” Support of Risk Assets was Underpinned by Geopolitical Peace Dividend from America’s Global Hegemony 8 Post Lehman 300 ERP = 498 Bp 6 250 Post 9/11 4 ERP = 204 Bp 200 2 150 0 -2 100 -4 50 -6 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 At his inaugural address, President Trump touted an inward look- U.S. Equity Risk Premium (Left) ing, “America first” foreign policy. Arguably, this posture was U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Composite Index (Right) a stunningly explicit (and perhaps misguided) recognition of a trend that had begun with the previous administration; whose Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, BCA Research and reticence to engage in military adventurism relative to his pre- FIS Group Professional Estimates decessors was roundly criticized by establishment hawks. Be- low we argue that this foreign policy trajectory is consistent In order to understand both the historical context and long term with historical precedent and will greatly alter the winners and investment implications of the current period of political tumult, losers going forward. we turned to the works of thinkers outside of the traditional gaggle of investment analysts, such as Thomas Freidman’s, Thank But first, why should investors care about changes in American You For Being Late: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age of Acceleration, Pe- foreign policy and more broadly, fundamental changes in the ter Zeihan’s The Absent Superpower and various research reports by geopolitical order? We would posit that structural changes in Marko Papic, geopolitical strategist for BCA research.
    [Show full text]
  • International Relations: One World, Many Theories Foreign Policy ; Washington; Spring 1998; Stephen M Walt;
    Monday, July 24, 2000 Document Page: 1 International relations: One world, many theories Foreign Policy ; Washington; Spring 1998; Stephen M Walt; Issue: 110 Start Page: 29-35+ ISSN: 00157228 Subject Terms: International relations Theory Abstract: The study of international affairs is best understood as a continuing competition between the realist, liberal, and radical traditions. Walt explains each of these paradigms as well as some constructivist theories. Full Text: Copyright Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Spring 1998 Why should policymakers and practitioners care about the scholarly study of international affairs? Those who conduct foreign policy often dismiss academic theorists (frequently, one must admit, with good reason), but there is an inescapable link between the abstract world of theory and the real world of policy. We need theories to make sense of the blizzard of information that bombards us daily. Even policymakers who are contemptuous of "theory" must rely on their own (often unstated) ideas about how the world works in order to decide what to do. It is hard to make good policy if one's basic organizing principles are flawed, just as it is hard to construct good theories without knowing a lot about the real world. Everyone uses theories-whether he or she knows it or not-and disagreements about policy usually rest on more fundamental disagreements about the basic forces that shape international outcomes. Take, for example, the current debate on how to respond to China. From one perspective, China's ascent is the latest example of the tendency for rising powers to alter the global balance of power in potentially dangerous ways, especially as their growing influence makes them more ambitious.
    [Show full text]
  • Global Governance and the Emergence of Global Institutions for the 21 St Century
    Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. IP address: 71.178.53.58, on 20 Jan 2020 at 19:24:33, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/AF7D40B152C4CBEDB310EC5F40866A59 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. IP address: 71.178.53.58, on 20 Jan 2020 at 19:24:33, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/AF7D40B152C4CBEDB310EC5F40866A59 “In this outstanding volume, López-Claros, Dahl, and Groff document the existen- tial challenges facing our global institutions, from environmental decline and the failure of existing international security mechanisms to mass population flows and the crisis of sovereignty and civil society engagement. The resulting landscape might seem hopeless and overwhelming, if not for the authors’ innovative, wide-ranging, and thought-provoking recommendations for reshaping existing insti- tutions to expand their relevance and effectiveness. Their ideas for updating our seven-decades-old structures include creating an international peace force, ratifying a United Nations Bill of Rights, reforming the UN Security Council and Inter- national Monetary Fund, establishing a civil society chamber, and beyond. Readers may not endorse every one of their suggestions, but they are invited into a fascinat- ing game of ‘what if?’ and ‘why not?’ It is an invitation that should not be missed.” Ambassador Donald Steinberg, Board member, Center for Strategic and International Studies “The current UN-based world system of governance, largely formulated in the mid-20th century after the Second World War, is not up to dealing satisfactorily with 21st-century problems.
    [Show full text]