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Countering Sectarianism in the Middle East

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Countering Sectarianism in the Middle East Volume Editors: Jeffrey Martini, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Becca Wasser Contributing Authors: Amanda Rizkallah, Justin Gengler, Kathleen Reedy, Ami Carpenter C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2799 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0191-5 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: Mohamed Azakir/Reuters Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Scholars and policymakers alike have sought to understand what drives sectarianism in the Middle East and its relationship to multiple conflicts. But far less attention has been focused on what factors make a community more resilient to sectarianism. This report seeks to address this gap by providing a better understanding of how commu- nities inoculate themselves from sectarianism or recover from it and draws lessons on how to promote resilience and cross-sectarian cooperation. To carry out this study, RAND researchers collaborated with a group of scholars with extensive regional and subject-matter expertise on sectarianism in the Middle East. This report begins with a treatment of conceptual issues, covers four case stud- ies in countries with sectarian divisions, and concludes with key findings and recom- mendations for countering sectarianism and promoting resilience in the Middle East. This research was sponsored by the Henry Luce Foundation under the founda- tion’s Religion in International Affairs program. The program supports projects that promote a deeper understanding of the role of religion in international affairs and that foster dialogue between the academic community and policymakers. The research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analy- sis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the defense agencies, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact infor- mation is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................vii Summary .............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ..................................................................................xiii Abbreviations .........................................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE Identifying Resilience and Cross-Sectarian Cooperation ..................................... 1 Literature on Sectarianism ............................................................................ 2 Policymaker Views on Sectarianism ................................................................. 4 Knowledge Gaps ....................................................................................... 6 Conceptual Issues ...................................................................................... 7 Research Approach and Organization of This Report ............................................ 9 CHAPTER TWO Transcending Sectarian Politics: The Case of Beirut Madinati ............................15 Lebanese Political Institutions and Elections ......................................................16 Formation: What Is Beirut Madinati? ..............................................................18 Anatomy of a Campaign .............................................................................21 From Campaign to Political Movement ........................................................... 26 Why Now? ............................................................................................ 27 Sustainability and Continuity .......................................................................32 Implications and Conclusions .......................................................................39 CHAPTER THREE Segregation and Sectarianism: Geography, Economic Distribution, and Sectarian Resilience in Bahrain ..........................................................................41 A Tale of Two Bahraini Cities: ‘Isa Town and Hamad Town .................................. 43 Segregation and Distribution in Bahrain ......................................................... 50 Local Integration and Sectarian Relations During the 2011 Uprising .........................57 Conclusion .............................................................................................61 v vi Countering Sectarianism in the Middle East CHAPTER FOUR Resilience and Sectarianism in Syria: The Role of Foreign Support .......................65 Experiences in the Civil War ........................................................................69 Variables in Sectarianism .............................................................................71 Discussion ............................................................................................. 87 CHAPTER FIVE Resilience to Sectarianism in Baghdad and Dohuk ...........................................91 Resilience, Conflict Escalation, and Social Capital .............................................. 92 Background ............................................................................................93 Neighborhood Versus City Resilience ..............................................................95 Social Capital ......................................................................................... 98 Translating Trust to Action ........................................................................ 106 Discussion ............................................................................................ 112 Conclusion ........................................................................................... 114 CHAPTER SIX Lessons and Policy Recommendations for Countering Sectarianism ................... 115 Summary of Case Study Findings ................................................................ 116 References ........................................................................................... 125 Figures Figures 1.1. Levels of Sectarian Division and Conflict in the Middle East, 2018 ..............11 3.1. ‘Isa Town ................................................................................. 46 3.2. Hamad Town .............................................................................47 3.3. Sectarian Segregation in Bahrain ......................................................51 3.4. Public-Sector Employment and Local Sectarian Segregation ..................... 54 3.5. Household Income and Local Sectarian Segregation ................................55 3.6. Self-Assessed Economic Satisfaction and Local Sectarian Segregation ........... 56 4.1. Political Map of Syria ...................................................................67 4.2. Reported Ideology of Respondents According to a Survey on Sectarianism, 2016 .......................................................................73 4.3. Perceived Origins of Sectarianism in Syria ...........................................74 4.4. Attacks in Syria, 2011–2016 ............................................................75 Tables 2.1. Beirut Municipal Election Results .....................................................25 4.1. Active and Supporting Members in the Ba’th Party ................................ 80 4.2. Service Provision in Syria, 2009 .......................................................81 5.1. Research Site Selection ................................................................. 96 vii Summary Sectarianism has become a destructive feature of the modern Middle East. Whether it is driven by political elites as a regime-survival strategy, by major powers as part of a strategy for building regional influence, or by religious leaders and believers who are unwilling to accept the equal status of other religious groups, sectarianism is likely to remain part of the regional landscape for years to come. This does not mean,
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