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Ukraine: Weekly Review of Financial Markets Week # 19

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Ukraine: Weekly Review of Financial Markets Week # 19 Ukraine: Weekly review of financial markets Week # 19: 16th – 22d May 2005 Regardless the decline of GDP growth rate foreign investors increase volumes Macroeconomics of direct investments into Ukrainian economy Foreign direct investments, bn. US$ The major share in trade balance surplus last year and in 1Q of the current 10 30% year is contributed by goods' trade that took the palm from services Foreign direct investments, $.bn. FDI growth rate, % Y/Y, right scale 28% Retail sales growth rate in the beginning of 2005 depreciated to +18.6% (Y/Y) 9 26% Ukraine hosted 50th anniversary Eurovision song contest 8 24% 22% 01/05/05 01/04/05 Change In 2005 7 NBU reserves, $ mln 20% 13 003.9 11 952.6 1 051.3 3 479 6 M3, bn. UAH 146 559 140 123 6 452 20 774 18% M0, bn. UAH 47 630 43 063 4 568 5 284 16% Balances at banks' 5 correspondent accounts, bn 14% UAH 11 898 13 969 -2 071 3 880 4 12% 3 10% 01 02 03 04 05 01 02 03 04 Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Official exchange rate of hryvnia against euro last week appreciated by 6.5 Financial markets kop ones again led by appreciation of hryvnia's anchorage – US Dollar, on Hryvnia official exchange rate Forex USDUAH EURUAH, right scale Interbank overnight credit rates grew a bit last week 5.3 7.2 Declining blue chips dreg PFTS index down 2.58% 5.25 House price's expectations index this year became less volatile than 7 previously – now the market droningly grows 5.2 6.8 5.15 20/05/05 13/05/05 Change 6.6 NBU re-financing rate 9.0% 9.0% - 5.1 “Overnight rate”, NBU 12.0/15.0% 12.0/15.0% - USDUAH (NBU) 5.0500 5.0500 - 6.4 KIEBID / OR, % 0.18/1.09 0.11/1.06 +0.07/+0.03 5.05 PFTS 305.44 313.53 -2.58% 5 6.2 l 04 y 04 y 05 v 04 p 04 n 04 n 05 e Ju Ja Ja Mar 04 Mar 05 S No Ma Ma VAT-bonds' yield spread has narrowed last week as bid yield grew in spite of Bond market ask yield decline VAT bonds' effective yield JPMorgan EMBI for Ukraine and Russia declined last week Series 1, ask 29% Series 1, bid 27% Series 2, ask 25% Series 2, bid 23% 21% 19% 17% 20/05/05 13/05/05 Change 15% JPMorgan Ukraine 205 208 -3 points 13% EMBI Russia 181 186 -5 points OVDP-16206, yield ask 5.39% 5.33% +6 b.p. 11% OVDP-20406, yield ask 4.62% 4.57% +5 b.p. 9% 7% 5% JSCB “Ukrsotsbank” 3% 4 4 5 4 5 04 05 r 0 y 0 y 0 Financial Instruments Department v 0 c 0 Jul 04 Apr Oct 04 Apr Jun 04 Jan 05 Ma Feb 05 No De Aug 04 Sep 04 Ma Tel/fax. +38 044 230 32 31 Ma www.usb.com.ua 1 / 8 Financial Instruments Department MACROECONOMICS Foreign direct investments, bn. US$ Regardless the decline of GDP growth rate foreign investors 10 30% increase volumes of direct investments into Ukrainian economy – Foreign direct investments, $.bn. within 1 quarter of 2005 foreign direct investments (FDI) grew FDI growth rate, % Y/Y, right scale 28% 26.7% (Y/Y). 9 26% At the same time its not wonder taking into consideration remarkable 8 24% US$ denominated GDP performance (growth rate above 30%). 22% Overall volume of attracted FDI in current year increased by $235 mln 7 and reached $8797.4 mln or $186 per capita by the 1st of April. 20% 6 The largest portion of capital came from British Virgin Isles (BVI) - 18% $128.4 mln, USA - $31.5 mln, Cyprus - $25.7 mln, UK - $18.5 mln, 5 16% Hungary - $17.2 mln and Russia - $16.7 mln. 14% Since the lion's share of investments came from offshore zones like 4 BVI and Cyprus we presume that what we see is the return of 12% domestic capital withdrawn from Ukraine previously. It gives a positive 3 10% signal to foreign investors because it shows that business climate in 01 02 03 04 05 01 02 03 04 Ukraine is improving. Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: State statistic committee, Calculations: JSCB "Ukrsotsbank" Trade balance surplus, mln. US$ In Jan-Mar 2005 Ukraine trade surplus has diminished by 8.34% to $791.4 mln comparing to the first quarter of 2004 when it topped 8000 Services trade surplus, mln. US$ 120% Goods trade surplus, mln. US$ $863.4 mln. Share of services trade, % (right scale) 7000 The largest share of Ukrainian export structure hold transport 100% services (78.7%). Other business, professional and technical 6000 services give 8.9%of export and repair services – 5.1%. 8 . 80% In structure of import prevail state services – 25.2% and transport 5000 3299 services – 23%. Major contribution into external trade surplus last year was 4000 60% made by goods while before 2004 services prevailed. This 6 became possible due to growing demand for Ukrainian goods 3000 7 4847. (mainly metallurgy) abroad. 3 40% 6 3 2863. 2000 2396. 2859. 1 . 3676. 5 20% 6 1000 791 616. 489. 3 4 4 59. 980. 0 859. 0% 000 001 002 003 004 2 2 2 2 2 1Q-05 Source: State statistic committee. Forecast: JSCB "Ukrsotsbank" Growth of real volumes of retail sales, % Reach social payments made during last 9 months did not bolstered retail sales. 30 Change, % Y/Y 100 Retail sales index (1990 = 100), right scale 3 On the contrary, growth rate of 12-month retail sales index in April 4 21.2 20. 20.0 19. 90 20 18.6 18.6 depreciated to +18.6% Y/Y while it was 24.3% Y/Y in April 2004. 15.0 13.7 80 We anticipate that in May retail sales will be supported by Eurovision 10 8.1 song contest and long-lasting May holidays. 70 0 0.2 60 1 . 6 1 . -5 . -10 -6 -7 7 . -9 50 6 13. 13.9 - -20 - 18.0 - 40 -30 30 0 35. - -40 20 5 05 05 05 0 ' ' r p 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 an' eb' A J Mar F an- an- an- J J J Source: State statistic committee. Calculations: JSCB "Ukrsotsbank" #20_05 UA_weekly 16’May’2005 – 22’May’2005 Financial Instruments Department FINANCIAL MARKETS Hryvnia official exchange rate Official exchange rate of hryvnia against euro last week USDUAH appreciated by 6.5 kop ones again led by appreciation of EURUAH, right scale hryvnia's anchorage – US Dollar, on Forex. 5.3 7.2 Dollar appreciation supported by positive expectations of strong economic growth in USA and by increasing Fed Fund rate. 5.25 7 USDUAH last week was unchanged as it had been expected. 5.2 6.8 5.15 6.6 5.1 6.4 5.05 5 6.2 04 l 04 t y 04 y 05 v 04 c 04 b 04 g 04 p 04 b 05 n 04 n 04 n 05 e u e e Ju Apr 04 Apr 05 Oc Ja Ju Ja F Mar 04 F Mar 05 A S No De Ma Ma Source: NBU Interbank overnight credit rates, % Interbank overnight credit rates slightly grew last week – 16 KIEBID bid rates by 7 b.p. and offer rates – by 3 b.p. KIEBOR This resulted in spread tightening to less than one percent 14 (0.91%). 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.20 5.20 5.20 5.20 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 3 0 7 4 1 7 4 1 8 7 4 1 8 4 1 8 5 2 9 6 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 Data: JSCB "Ukrsotsbank" Quotations of shares of PFTS Index basket (plus GLNG) The only share that hasn't lost its value was NPRW (NITR) – Price, $ % change % change shares grew by symbolic 0.33%. Issuer Code 01/04/05 in 2005 Last week Dniproenergo (DNEN, -8.33%) and Zaporizhstal (ZPST, -4.12%) PFTS Index 305.44 17.42% -2.58% were the worse performers last week. Zaporizhstal ZPST 1.13 10.71% -4.12% Shares of Galnaftogaz (GLNG) dropped due to one deal Ukrnafta UNAF 31.77 31.39% -0.96% concluded in PFTS last week at a price out of spread. Hence we have reasons to refer to this deal as to out-of-market deal Stirol STIR 15.05 9.23% -3.80% (technical). NPRW NITR 6.34 178.56% 0.33% Ukrtelecom UTEL 0.14 6.45% -3.05% Zakhidenergo ZAEN 27.43 8.81% -1.42% Centrenergo CEEN 0.80 -0.23% -3.01% Dniproenergo DNEN 65.94 14.24% -8.33% Kyivenergo KIEN 1.63 45.06% -2.66% Donbasenergo DOEN 4.23 19.36% 0.00% Galnaftogaz (for 1000) GLNG 7.62 4.38% -13.92% Source: PFTS #20_05 UA_weekly 16’May’2005 – 22’May’2005 Financial Instruments Department PFTS Index vs.
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