COUNTRY Food Security Update
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ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update September 2014 Crops wilted or only growing very slowly in lowlands Projected food security outcomes, September 2014 KEY MESSAGES An early end of Belg rains in May and below-normal cumulative June to September Kiremt rains mean that many long-cycle crops wilted or are growing more slowly along the Rift Valley in central Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR). Slower growth and wilting are also observed in eastern Oromia, Waghimra Zone in Amhara, and Raya Azebo Woreda in Tigray. With a likely much below-average Meher harvest in these areas, households will more quickly deplete their food stocks, likely becoming more food insecure as these deplete after December. Despite the Karma/Karan rains, pasture has not fully recovered in most northern pastoral areas. Not yet having any Projected food security outcomes, October to increased livestock productivity, poor households will December 2014 continue to rely on humanitarian assistance through December and beyond. CURRENT SITUATION In eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and central and eastern Oromia Region, rainfall was below average at the beginning of the Kiremt rains from June through much of August, but in late August and early September rainfall amounts were more normal. However, cumulative June to September Kiremt rainfall remains below average in many areas. Most crops are currently at the late growth stage, and normally, more crops would be at the flowering stage. In particular, maize in the central and eastern Oromia is stunted or wilted. Thus, green maize is not yet available for consumption. Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia In the lowlands of Waghimra Zone in Amhara, Raya Azebo in This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for Tigray, West Arsi, East Shewa, and East and West Hararghe emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic Zones in Oromia Region, most long-cycle crops wilted due to food insecurity. To learn more about this scale, click here. dry conditions. In some, replanting has occurred with short- cycle crops, which are at the germination or very early growth stages. In eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and central and eastern Oromia Region, the near normal amounts of rain fell in late August and early September increased pasture and drinking water availability including in the areas that were very dry during the February to May Belg and since the start of the Kiremt in June/July. Ponds in the lowlands of eastern Oromia have not fully replenished, but the water supply for livestock has increased. Cattle that had been migrated to river valleys are being returned to areas closer to homesteads. However, livestock body conditions still have not recovered fully. Since the start of the Kiremt rains in June, the rainfall has been near average in amount with normal distribution in most of western Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR). Both short- and long-cycle Meher crops are at their normal growth stages, mostly at flowering or seed-setting. FEWS NET ETHIOPIA FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net/Ethiopia Government ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update September 2014 However, in the lowlands of Gamo Gofa, Wolayita, Halaba, parts of Sidama and Silte, and eastern Gurage Zone in SNNPR, there was almost no rain in July and early August. More normal amounts of rain fell at the end of August and in early September. Despite recent rains, cumulative June to September rainfall in these areas remains below average. The early withdrawal of Belg rains and late start of Kiremt rains resulted a longer dry season from early May through the end of July when usually it would be concentrated in the month of June. This resulted in dried up or stunted crops, both long- cycle crops and Belg crops, including maize, haricot bean, pepper, sesame, and sorghum. Some plots were replanted with wheat or teff in late July, but others were left fallow. Green maize and green pepper consumption normally starts at the end of August, but these crops are currently not available in the areas they are grown in Halaba, Silte, and Gurage Zones. With rain in August and early September, cumulative July to September Karma/Karan rainfall was near average in amount and normally distribution in most parts of Afar and northern Somali Region. However, distribution was poorer and amounts were less in Gabi (Formerly Zone 3), some parts of Awsi (Formerly Zone 1) in Afar Region, and Sitti Zone in Somali Region. However, due to very dry conditions through July, vegetation has not yet fully recovered, so forage availability is much lower than usual. Accordingly, no significant improvement in livestock productivity has been observed. Due to lack of forage and water, the World Food Program (WFP) estimates that 11,000 livestock have died since June in Awash Fentale, Amibara, and Gewane Woredas of Gabi (formerly Zone 3). Approximately, 100,000 livestock are in very poor condition. Livestock from these areas have been migrated to Berehet and Mingar Woredas of Amhara and Mojo Woreda of Oromia. Emergency fodder is being provided by the government. Water availability increased since the start of the rains, and currently, only three water trucks are operating in Berhale Woreda compared to 10 operating across Afar in May/June. In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, the below-average March to May Gu/Genna rains meant there was early depletion of pasture and water during the June to September dry season. With fewer resources, livestock body conditions have deteriorated, and productivity has further declined. Livestock are concentrated in the small areas where pasture and water conditions are better. The high concentration of a large number of animals though is quickly depleting water and pasture resources, which has caused conflict in at least one area. Concentration has also increased the risk of livestock disease outbreaks. Poor livestock productivity has limited access to milk, which is leading to declining nutritional status of children. Some livestock deaths have been reported in August in Afder and Shebelle (formerly Gode) Zones in Somali Region and Borena Zone in Oromia Region. Water trucking is ongoing in Shebelle (formerly Gode), Afder, Liben, and Dollo (formerly Warder) Zones of Somali Region. Unusual, off-season rains fell for around three days in late August, leading to a minor increase in browse and water availability in Jarar (formerly Degehabur) and Nogob (formerly Fik) Zones. Markets: Grain prices were mostly stable in most of Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and highland areas in SNNPR. But, grain prices increased slightly from July to August in lowland areas due to limited local Belg supplies in many areas. Livestock prices were generally stable in most of Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and SNNPR. However, cattle prices significantly declined from July to August in Halaba, Silte, and Gurage Zones in SNNPR due to poor body conditions. Similarly, due to the seasonal decline in external demand before the Hajj exports start and increased supply as households seek to sell livestock to purchase food, livestock prices declined in southern and southeastern pastoral areas. With an increase in staple food prices in these markets, the livestock-to-cereal terms of trade decreased. Flooding: Heavy rains since July in highland areas in Oromia and Amhara caused flooding of the Awash River and some seasonal rivers in Buremoditu, Gewane, and Awash Fentale Woredas in Gabi (formerly Zone 3), Afambo, Asaita, Dubti, and Mille Woredas in Awsi (formerly Zone 1), and Megale Woreda in Kilbati (formerly Zone 2) in Afar. These floods resulted in three deaths and approximately 4,000 livestock deaths. They damaged 4,700 hectares of crops. More than 3,500 households lost livestock, shelter, or other assets. Similarly, since July the Omo River flooded in Dassench Woreda of South Omo Zone. Some pastoralists and their livestock have been surrounded by flood waters near Lake Turkana. The evacuation of people from these areas has started. UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS Most assumptions from the Ethiopia Food Security Outlook for July to December 2014 remain unchanged. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook Update September 2014 PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH DECEMBER 2014 Southern areas along the Kenyan border in the southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas in southern Somali, Oromia, and SNNPR: Livestock body conditions and productivity are likely to improve following the start of the anticipated near average October to December Deyr/Hageya rains. Poor household will become less reliant on humanitarian assistance, and these areas will move from their current Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) only due to the continued presence of humanitarian assistance to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) even without assistance in October. Jarar (formerly Degehabur) and Nogob (formerly Fik) Zones and some northern areas in Korahe, Shebelle (formerly Gode), and Afder Zones in Somali Region: Pasture and water availability are likely to remain significantly less than usual until after the start of the rains in October. With continued high cereal prices, poor and very poor households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least December, remaining unable to purchase some essential non-food items to protect their livelihoods such as livestock drugs. Afar and northern Somali Region: With the dry season starting in October, household milk access and income from milk sales is expected to decline. The income from livestock sales and livestock product sales will not be sufficient to cover their minimal food needs due to likely continued low livestock-to-cereal terms of trade. Poor and very poor households in western and southern parts of Afar Region and Fafan (formerly Jijiga) and Sitti (formerly Shinile) Zones of the Somali Region will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) only with the continued presence of humanitarian assistance through at least December.