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Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh for the Degree Of MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INTEGRATED COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT OF BANGLADESH Ph. D DISSERTATION MD. ANOWER HOSSAIN DEPARTMENT OF FARM POWER AND MACHINERY BANGLADESH AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY MYMENSINGH 2202 September 2011 MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INTEGRATED COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT OF BANGLADESH Dissertation submitted in accordance with the requirement of the Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By MD. ANOWER HOSSAIN Roll No. 01/2006-07 Reg. No. 15423/1987-88 Approved as to style and content by (Professor Dr. B. K. Bala) Supervisor (Professor Dr. Md. Shahid Ullah Talukder) (Professor Dr. Md. Salequzzaman) Co-supervisor Member, Supervisory Committee (Professor Dr. Md. Monjurul Alam) Chairman, Examination Committee Department of Farm Power and Machinery Bangladesh Agricultural University Mymensingh September 2011 ii DEDICATED TO MY BELOVED PARENTS, WIFE AND CHILDREN iii DECLARATION I hereby declare that the dissertation titled “Mathematical Modeling of Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Bangladesh” submitted to the Department of Farm Power and Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy is the document of original research work, which was designed, conducted and written by me independently. I further announce that the substance or any part of the dissertation has not been submitted in any form elsewhere for the award of any degree. Date: September 2011 Md. Anower Hossain iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS All praises are due to the Almighty Allah Subhanuta’la, the Omnipotent, Omnipresent and Omniscient, who enabled the author to complete this dissertation. Expression of indebtedness and profound regards are not enough to acknowledge the unflinching cooperation, warmth and indomitable guidance throughout the research work and in the preparation of the manuscript in time I have received from my respected teacher and research supervisor Dr. B. K. Bala, Professor, Department of Farm Power and Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU), Mymensingh. I must thank my Co-supervisor Professor Dr. Md. Shahid Ullah Talukder Department of Irrigation and Water Management, BAU, Mymensingh and member of the Supervisory Committee Professor Dr. Md. Salequzzaman, Department of Environmental Science, Khulna University, Khulna for their guidance, kind help and constructive criticism during the preparation of this manuscript. I would like to extend my gratitude to Dr. Ayub Hossain, senior scientific officer, Bangladesh Agricultural Research institute for his constant suggestions, inspiration and affectionate feeling. The author gratefully acknowledged to Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) authority for their financial support given under the award of a scholarship and for granting the deputation for the entire period of the study. The author also acknowledged to the FAO, USAID and European Comission for assistance partial research expenses during PhD program. I express my cordial gratitude to all respected teachers, officials and staffs of the Department of Farm Power and Machinery, BAU, Mymensingh for their kind cooperation and continuous encouragement. Special thanks are also to my friends, colleagues, officials and staffs of Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute for their encouragements. I would like to thank my beloved wife and children (Muaz bin Anwar Mushira zannat, and Masruk bin Anwar) for their forbearance, understanding and sacrifice. Thanks and appreciation are also extended to Saiful Vai, Kibria, Thouhid,, Masud Alom, Nurul Amin, Sujit, Sydur, Dilip, Ershad, Rakib, Sahin, Nazir, Ayub khan, Milon, Sohel, Zakaria, Sumon, Faruk, saddam, Pantha, Zia, friends and all well wishers for their constant inspiration and encouragement. The Author v Biographical Sketch The author, Md Anower Hossain was born on August 01, 1970 at Sadar upazila under Patuakhali district of Bangladesh. His father is Md. Abul Kalam and mother Mrs. Saleha Begum. He had his school education in his own village from where he passed Secondary School Certificate (SSC) from Moukaran High School in 1985 being placed in first division. Afterwards, he passed Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) from Patuakhali Government College in 1987 obtaining first division. He obtained Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Engineering from Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU), Mymensingh in 1991 (examination held in 2005) and stood first class. Following which he completed Master of Science (MS) in Irrigation and Water Management (IWM) in June 1997 obtaining first class under the National Science & Technology fellowship program. Recently, He also completed Post Graduate Diploma in ICT. The author started his professional career in the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) as a Thana Agricultural Engineer in March 1997. In November 1997, he left the DAE and joined the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) as a Scientific Officer. He was promoted to Senior Scientific Officer in 2008 and has been working in the same position till September, 2011. The author had been served with Irrigation and Water Management Division of BARI and done research in various aspects of irrigation water management, on-farm water management, reuse of wastewater for sustainable agriculture, etc. He is a life member of Krishibid Institution Bangladesh (KIB), Institute of Engineers’ Bangladesh (IEB), Bangladesh Society of Agricultural Engineers (BSAE) and BARISA. He published more than 30 research articles in different journals at home and abroad. He participated in many workshops, seminars and training programmes. The author have completed a good number of foreign aided (FAO, USAID, European Union) research project with reputation. At present, the author is serving as a Senior Scientific Officer at Agricultural Statistics and Information & Communication Technology (ASICT) section, Training and Communication Wing, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI). The author is married to Mustari Alom and blessed with two sons, Muaz bin Anwar & Masruk bin Anwar and one daughter, Musira Zannat. vi MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INTEGRATED COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT OF BANGLADESH M. A. Hossain ABSTRACT Abstract: This study presents the present status of food security and ecological footprint, an indicator of environmental sustainability and a computer model of integrated management of the coastal zones of Bangladesh. The study also assesses the climate change impacts on rice production in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. To estimate the present status of the food security and ecological footprint of the coastal zone of Bangladesh, primary and secondary data were collected and the present status of food security and environmental degradation (in terms of ecological footprint) were calculated. To estimate household food security primary data were also collected from all the households of a representative selected village.A quantitative method for computation of food security in grain equivalent based on economic returns (price) is developed and a method of measuring sustainable development in terms of ecological footprint developed by Wackernagel and Rees (1996) is used to estimate the environmental sustainability. Overall status of food security at upazila levels is good for all the upazilas (8.53% to 164.19%) except Shoronkhola (-23.65%), Shyamnager (-6.08%) and Morrelgonj (-30.29%), and the best is the Kalapara upazila (164.19%). But status of food security at household levels is poor. The environmental status in the coastal zones is poor for all the upazilas (-0.5076 to -0.027) except Kalapara (+0.306) and Galachipa (+0.322) and the worst is the Mongla upazila (-0.5076). Environmental status has degraded mainly due to shrimp culture. Developed computer model predicts that expanding shrimp aquaculture industry ensures high food security at upazila levels with increasing environmental degradation.The model also predicts that if shrimp aquaculture industry continues to boom from the present status to super intensive shrimp aquaculture, a collapse of the shrimp aquaculture industry will ultimately occur turning shrimp aquaculture land neither suitable for shrimp culture nor crop production. The control of population and growth of the shrimp production intensity should be considered for stabilization of the system in the long run. The sustainable development of the coastal zone of Bangladesh in the long run without control of both the growth of shrimp production intensity and population will remain mere dream. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the impact of climate change on crop production in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. Sensitivity analysis shows that the crop model is sensitive to temperature change and CO2 levels.The simulation was carried out to predict the yields of rice under different climatic trends of temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. The effect of temperature on the yield of rice that is negative while of CO2 is positive but temperature plays dominant role. Prediction was also made to predict the climate change impacts of rice yields based on historical and IPCC climate change scenarios. Historical climate change scenario has little impacts on rice yield but there is relatively higher reduction in the yields of rice for IPCC climate change scenario. The model validated with the actual field data and found good agreement between simulated and actual data. ICZM computer model can be used to assist the policy planners to assess different policy issues and to
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