Who’s Who in China’s Economic Policy TIE’s biennial survey of the backroom power structure Former President On Top in President Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, clings to share of Beijing powerful but not power through the quite in charge Central Military Commission. Beijing’s College of Cardinals Premier Wen Jiabao, assigned special Finance Minister Jin Renqing has day-to-day control over responsibility for Agricultural Reforms and financial macro-controls, statistics, and banking, but Zhou Financial Reforms. Xiaochuan, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, handles most critical Senior Vice Premier Huang Ju, the top man bank regulatory issues. for financial policy. Ma Kai, Chairman of the State Vice Premier Wu Yi, the senior point Development Reform Commission, person on WTO and trade issues. and the ideological arbiter of all Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan, senior point economic policies—to ensure they person on industry and state enterprises, can be defended in terms of a also the final arbiter on the State Plan. “socialist market economy.” Vice Minister Hui Liangyu, the agricultural AP PHOTO/NG HAN GUAN Zhou Xiaochuan, central bank governor, decision maker. handles critical bank regulatory issues. People’s Liberation Army: Still Aggressive Capitalists All branches are big players in the economy, although not as big as previously, because they once directly ran many manufacturing and agricultural projects to help finance the military. Officially the military has divested, under duress and direct orders of the Central Committee. Now a lot of “retired” generals and their children run the companies—crony capitalism at its most refined—often in joint ventures with local Communist .DEFENSELINK.MIL Party officials. WWW 26 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY SUMMER 2004 China’s Wise Men Various national and sub-national agencies do their own data collection and analysis, with research organizations linked to them that do contract research. University institutes and scholars also do contract research. China is evolving so that individual scholars are now as important as institutions. Jiang and Hu now regularly hold private briefings with just one or two scholars, for example. In foreign affairs, the most important research organizations are: The Chinese Institute of Contemporary International The Institute of American Relations, Lu Zhongwei, president (said to be linked Studies. Director Wang Jisi to the Ministry of State Security). is a major “America handler,” always giving guest lectures The Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, has in the United States. Very, institutes that run the gamut of domestic and external very plugged-in with senior issues. How much influence any one of them has on leadership. decision-making is open to question, but in general Wang Jisi: the Academy enjoys significant power. The Academy of Military Beijing’s major Sciences in Beijing, a big “America handler.” The Chinese Institute of International Studies, People’s Liberation Beijing, is run by the Foreign Ministry. Army/Defense Ministry The Shanghai Institute of International Studies, operation, which includes the National Defense director Yu Xintian, and vice president and senior University, especially the Institute of Strategic fellow Yang Jiemian, brother of Ambassador to U.S. Studies, Yang Yi, director. Yang Jiechi. Wise Men on the Taiwan Question The key policymakers, aside from Jiang Zemin: Members of the Taiwan Affairs Leading Small The Chinese leadership is Group. Hu Jintao became the TALSG head and Jia split between Beijing-types Qinglin, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political and the “Shanghai Clique” Consultative Conference, became deputy head. of Jiang Zemin. There are several outfits in Shanghai, As Chairman of the (Membership turned over last year. To show the Chinese People’s important by definition, that level of importance, previous members were: Tang Political Consultative provide an alternative stream Jia Qinglin Jiaxuan, a state councilor and former foreign Conference, of analysis. These include is influential on minister; Wang Gang, director of the CCP central most prominently: Taiwan matters. committee’s general office; Liu Yandong, head of the CCP’s united front work department; Wang The Shanghai Institute of Daohan, head of ARATS; Chen Yunlin, head of the East Asian Studies, Zhang Taiwan Affairs Office; Xu Yongyue, Minister of Nianchi, director, which has connections with the State Security; and Xiong Guangkai, deputy chief of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, and staff for intelligence.) Shanghai Institute of Taiwan Studies, Yan Anlin, director, which is under the Shanghai Municipal A number of government and military agencies do Government’s Taiwan Affairs Office. U.S. and Taiwan analysis. In addition, there are several important research organizations. In Beijing, Finally, the Institute of Taiwan Studies at Xiamen there is the Taiwan Studies Institute of the Chinese University, Liu Guoshen, director, is well-respected. Academy of Social Sciences, Yu Keli, director. SUMMER 2004 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 27 Washington’s Top China-Watchers Most Influential Think Tankers Officials past and future: Alan Romberg, Stimson Center, former State Kurt Campbell, Center for Department spokesman Strategic and International Studies, former Deputy Bates Gill, Center for Strategic and International Assistant Secretary of Studies, Freeman Chair Defense under Clinton Richard Bush, Brookings Institution, and former Derek Mitchell, Center for IIE’s Nick Lardy, President, American Institute on Taiwan Strategic and International everyone’s guru. Nick Lardy, Institute for International Economics, Studies everyone’s guru Minxin Pei, scholar, Carnegie Endowment Robert Sutter, Georgetown University, former Jim Steinberg, Brookings Institution, National intelligence officer for East Asia/CIA former Deputy National Security Adviser to John Tkacik, Heritage Foundation, ex-State President Clinton Department, leading Taiwan lobby Harry Harding, George Washington University Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Georgetown University David Shambaugh, George Washington University, Bonnie Glaser, Center for Strategic and International wrote the book on People’s Liberation Army arms Studies, Defense Department consultant Larry Wortzel, Heritage Foundation, former military David “Mike” Lampton, The Nixon Center attaché, Beijing Rear Adm. Eric McVadon (Ret.), Center for Naval Jim Lilley, American Enterprise Institute, former Analyses CIA, former Ambassador to Taiwan, etc. Michael Swaine, Carnegie Endowment Andy Nathan, Columbia University Pro-Taiwan Lobby John Tkacik, Heritage Foundation Steve Solarz, former chair, House Asian and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee Harvey Feldman, Heritage Foundation, former U.N. Ambassador Bob Dole, television pitchman, former Senator Mike Fonte, Democratic People’s Party D.C. Bill Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard representative Greg Mastel, trade attorney, former Senate Coen Blaauw, Formosan Association for Public Finance/Baucus staffer Affairs Doral Cooper Therese Shaheen, former President, American U.S.-Taiwan Business Council Institute in Taiwan 28 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY SUMMER 2004 Capitol Hill: Members BOMB THROWERS: BUILDERS/CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICS: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), Chairman, House Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-CA), Senate Armed Services Committee Appropriations Committee Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX), House Majority Leader Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT), Ranking Member, Senate Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Finance Committee House International Relations Committee Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), Chairman, Senate Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA), Ranking Member, House Finance Committee International Relations Committee Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), Chairman, Senate Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN), House International Foreign Relations Committee Relations Committee Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), Ranking Member, Senate Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA), House Appropriations Foreign Relations Committee Committee Rep. Jim Leach (R-IA), House International Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), House International Relations Committee Relations Committee Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), Senate Foreign Rep. Sandy Levin (D-MI), House Relations Committee Ways & Means Committee Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Chairman, Republican Policy Chair, Senate Committee Appropriations Committee Sen. Fritz Hollings (D-SC), Ranking Member, Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN), Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Majority Leader Committee Senator Fritz Hollings: One of the leading bomb throwers on China, retiring, will leave significant vacuum. Capitol Hill: Key Staff If John Kerry is elected, Keith Luse, Senator Lugar/Foreign Relations Nancy Stetson, chief foreign policy aide to Senator Kerry Nancy Stetson Frank Jannuzi, Senator Biden/Foreign Relations will be an Derek Chollet, Senator Evelyn Farkas, Senate Armed Services/Democrats Edwards important Erin Conaton, House Armed Services/Republicans backroom Peter Yeo, Representative Dennis Halpin, House International Lantos, House International player. Relations/Republicans Relations/Democrats Jamie McCormick, House International Tim Reif, Chief Trade Counsel, Ways & Relations/Republicans Means/Democrats Tim Punke, Chief International Trade Counsel, Angela Ellard, Staff Director, House Ways & Means Senator Baucus/Finance-Democrats Trade Subcommittee/Republicans Everett Eissenstat, Chief International Trade Kerry Dumbaugh, Congressional Research Service Counsel, Senator Grassley/Finance-Republicans Shirley Kan, Congressional Research Service SUMMER 2004 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 29