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Home , Bill Gertz, Bill Kristol, Evelyn Farkas, Hui Liangyu, Kissinger Associates, Ma Kai

Who’s Who in ’s Economic Policy TIE’s biennial survey of the backroom power structure

Former President On Top in President , , clings to share of powerful but not power through the quite in charge Central Military Commission.

Beijing’s College of Cardinals

Premier , assigned special Finance Minister Jin Renqing has day-to-day control over responsibility for Agricultural Reforms and financial macro-controls, statistics, and banking, but Zhou Financial Reforms. Xiaochuan, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, handles most critical Senior Vice Premier , the top man bank regulatory issues. for financial policy. , Chairman of the State Vice Premier , the senior point Development Reform Commission, person on WTO and trade issues. and the ideological arbiter of all Vice Premier Peiyan, senior point economic policies—to ensure they person on industry and state enterprises, can be defended in terms of a also the final arbiter on the State Plan. “.”

Vice Minister Liangyu, the agricultural AP PHOTO/NG HAN GUAN , central bank governor, decision maker. handles critical bank regulatory issues.

People’s Liberation Army: Still Aggressive Capitalists

All branches are big players in the economy, although not as big as previously, because they once directly ran many manufacturing and agricultural projects to help finance the military. Officially the military has divested, under duress and direct orders of the Central Committee. Now a lot of “retired” generals and their children run the companies—crony capitalism at its most refined—often in joint ventures with local Communist .DEFENSELINK.MIL Party officials. WWW

26 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY SUMMER 2004 China’s Wise Men Various national and sub-national agencies do their own data collection and analysis, with research organizations linked to them that do contract research. University institutes and scholars also do contract research. China is evolving so that individual scholars are now as important as institutions. Jiang and Hu now regularly hold private briefings with just one or two scholars, for example. In foreign affairs, the most important research organizations are: The Chinese Institute of Contemporary International The Institute of American Relations, Lu Zhongwei, president (said to be linked Studies. Director Jisi to the Ministry of State Security). is a major “America handler,” always giving guest lectures The Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, has in the . Very, institutes that run the gamut of domestic and external very plugged-in with senior issues. How much influence any one of them has on leadership. decision-making is open to question, but in general Wang Jisi: the Academy enjoys significant power. The Academy of Military Beijing’s major Sciences in Beijing, a big “America handler.” The Chinese Institute of International Studies, People’s Liberation Beijing, is run by the Foreign Ministry. Army/Defense Ministry The Institute of International Studies, operation, which includes the National Defense director Yu Xintian, and vice president and senior University, especially the Institute of Strategic fellow Yang Jiemian, brother of Ambassador to U.S. Studies, Yang Yi, director. .

Wise Men on the Question The key policymakers, aside from Jiang Zemin:

Members of the Taiwan Affairs Leading Small The Chinese leadership is Group. Hu Jintao became the TALSG head and Jia split between Beijing-types Qinglin, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political and the “” Consultative Conference, became deputy head. of Jiang Zemin. There are several outfits in Shanghai, As Chairman of the (Membership turned over last year. To show the Chinese People’s important by definition, that level of importance, previous members were: Tang Political Consultative provide an alternative stream Jiaxuan, a state councilor and former foreign Conference, of analysis. These include is influential on minister; , director of the CCP central most prominently: Taiwan matters. committee’s general office; , head of the CCP’s united front work department; Wang The Shanghai Institute of Daohan, head of ARATS; Chen Yunlin, head of the East Asian Studies, Zhang Taiwan Affairs Office; Xu Yongyue, Minister of Nianchi, director, which has connections with the State Security; and Xiong Guangkai, deputy chief of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, and staff for intelligence.) Shanghai Institute of Taiwan Studies, Yan Anlin, director, which is under the Shanghai Municipal A number of government and military agencies do Government’s Taiwan Affairs Office. U.S. and Taiwan analysis. In addition, there are several important research organizations. In Beijing, Finally, the Institute of Taiwan Studies at Xiamen there is the Taiwan Studies Institute of the Chinese University, Liu Guoshen, director, is well-respected. Academy of Social Sciences, Yu Keli, director.

SUMMER 2004 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 27

Washington’s Top China-Watchers

Most Influential Think Tankers Officials past and future:

Alan Romberg, Stimson Center, former State Kurt Campbell, Center for Department spokesman Strategic and International Studies, former Deputy Bates Gill, Center for Strategic and International Assistant Secretary of Studies, Freeman Chair Defense under Clinton Richard Bush, , and former Derek Mitchell, Center for IIE’s Nick Lardy, President, American Institute on Taiwan Strategic and International everyone’s guru. Nick Lardy, Institute for International Economics, Studies everyone’s guru Minxin Pei, scholar, Carnegie Endowment Robert Sutter, Georgetown University, former Jim Steinberg, Brookings Institution, National intelligence officer for East /CIA former Deputy Adviser to John Tkacik, Heritage Foundation, ex-State President Clinton Department, leading Taiwan lobby Harry Harding, George Washington University Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Georgetown University David Shambaugh, George Washington University, Bonnie Glaser, Center for Strategic and International wrote the book on People’s Liberation Army arms Studies, Defense Department consultant Larry Wortzel, Heritage Foundation, former military David “Mike” Lampton, The Nixon Center attaché, Beijing Rear Adm. Eric McVadon (Ret.), Center for Naval Jim Lilley, American Enterprise Institute, former Analyses CIA, former Ambassador to Taiwan, etc. Michael Swaine, Carnegie Endowment Andy Nathan,

Pro-Taiwan Lobby John Tkacik, Heritage Foundation Steve Solarz, former chair, House Asian and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee Harvey Feldman, Heritage Foundation, former U.N. Ambassador , television pitchman, former Senator Mike Fonte, Democratic People’s Party D.C. , editor of representative Greg Mastel, trade attorney, former Senate Coen Blaauw, Formosan Association for Public Finance/Baucus staffer Affairs Doral Cooper Therese Shaheen, former President, American U.S.-Taiwan Business Council Institute in Taiwan

28 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY SUMMER 2004 Capitol Hill: Members

BOMB THROWERS: BUILDERS/CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICS: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), Chairman, House Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-CA), Senate Armed Services Committee Appropriations Committee Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX), House Majority Leader Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT), Ranking Member, Senate Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Finance Committee House International Relations Committee Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), Chairman, Senate Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA), Ranking Member, House Finance Committee International Relations Committee Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), Chairman, Senate Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN), House International Foreign Relations Committee Relations Committee Sen. (D-DE), Ranking Member, Senate Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA), House Appropriations Foreign Relations Committee Committee Rep. Jim Leach (R-IA), House International Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), House International Relations Committee Relations Committee Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), Senate Foreign Rep. Sandy Levin (D-MI), House Relations Committee Ways & Means Committee Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Chairman, Republican Policy Chair, Senate Committee Appropriations Committee Sen. Fritz Hollings (D-SC), Ranking Member, Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN), Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Majority Leader Committee Senator Fritz Hollings: One of the leading bomb throwers on China, retiring, will leave significant vacuum.

Capitol Hill: Key Staff If is elected, Keith Luse, Senator Lugar/Foreign Relations Nancy Stetson, chief foreign policy aide to Senator Kerry Nancy Stetson Frank Jannuzi, Senator Biden/Foreign Relations will be an Derek Chollet, Senator Evelyn Farkas, Senate Armed Services/Democrats Edwards important Erin Conaton, House Armed Services/Republicans backroom Peter Yeo, Representative Dennis Halpin, House International Lantos, House International player. Relations/Republicans Relations/Democrats Jamie McCormick, House International Tim Reif, Chief Trade Counsel, Ways & Relations/Republicans Means/Democrats Tim Punke, Chief International Trade Counsel, Angela Ellard, Staff Director, House Ways & Means Senator Baucus/Finance-Democrats Trade Subcommittee/Republicans Everett Eissenstat, Chief International Trade Kerry Dumbaugh, Congressional Research Service Counsel, Senator Grassley/Finance-Republicans Shirley Kan, Congressional Research Service

SUMMER 2004 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 29 Pro-China Lobby Non-Government Bomb Throwers

U.S.-China Business Council, Bob Kapp, President. Frank Vargo, National Association of Manufacturers , Ford, Reagan, and Bush I Administrations, National Security Council. Bill Kristol, The Weekly Standard Bill Gertz, Jim Sasser, former Senator, Clinton’s Ambassador to Beijing. Alan Tonelson, columnist, U.S. Business and Industry Council Joe Prueher, former CINCPAC, Clinton’s Bill Triplett, former staffer Ambassador to Beijing following Sasser. U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Kevin Nealer, Scowcroft Associates, Commission former Senate staff. , Clinton’s National Security Advisor. Jeff Bader, Berger’s Key Business Players Stonebridge International, ex-State Department, Companies, CEOs, and/or Washington reps Office of the U.S. Trade who seriously play the China Game: Representative, etc. Boeing: Tom Pickering, government relations

Bush I’s Brent Scowcroft, considered UPS: CEO Michael Eskew, chairs U.S.-China a power in pro-China lobby. Business Council Motorola AIG: especially Chairman and Resident Adults CEO Hank Greenberg In a crunch, everyone always listens to them: Life Carla Hills, former U.S. Trade Representative Microsoft Richard Bush, Brookings Institution Caterpillar Alan Romberg, Stimson Center Citibank AIG top honcho Jim Lilley, American Enterprise Institute Intel: James Jarrett, Hank Greenberg, considered a serious Bob Sutter, Georgetown University VP/Worldwide player. Government Affairs Nick Lardy, Institute for International Economics Alticor (includes Amway): Chairman Bill Reinsch, President, National Steve Van Andel Foreign Trade Council, former Clinton Administration Daimler/Chrysler Undersecretary of Commerce Time Warner Stapleton Roy, Kissinger Associates, Picture Association of America former Ambassador to China National Association of Manufacturers Poppa, aka George H.W. Bush, former U.S. Chamber of Commerce President of the United States Semiconductor Industry Association James Lilley, AEI, National Foreign Trade Council considered an important expert.

30 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY SUMMER 2004

Who’s Who in the Administration Some better, some worse…

Dubya himself, personally set tone for China • • • strategic partnership, criticisms of Taiwan. Robert Zoellick, U.S. Trade Representative. Richard Cheney, Vice President. Charles Freeman, Assistant U.S. Trade Lewis “Scooter” Libby, Cheney’s enforcer. Representative for China Affairs. Steve Yates, Cheney’s China expert. Josette Shiner, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative. , political director. • • • Condi Rice, National Security Advisor, just took Don Evans, Secretary of Commerce. first solo visit to China. Grant Aldonas, Undersecretary of Commerce for Mike Green, National Security Council Asia chief. International Trade, ex-Senate Finance. Ford Hart, China pro on loan to NSC from State Hank Levine, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia Department. and the Pacific, International Trade Administration, Department of Commerce. Faryar Shirzad, NEC/NSC, rising star, ex-Senate Finance staff. Michelle O’Neill, Deputy Assistant Secretary for • • • Information Technology Industries. , Secretary of State. • • • Rich Armitage, Deputy Secretary of State and Don Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense. author of Asia strategy blueprint. Peter Rodman, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Jim Kelly, Asst. Secretary of State for East Asian International Security Affairs. and Pacific Affairs. Richard Lawless, Deputy Assistant Secretary Don Keyser, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, for Asian and Pacific the old China professional. Affairs. Randy Schriver, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Mike Pillsbury, special State, the rising star, Armitage protégé. advisor to Rumsfeld. Alan Larson, Undersecretary of State for Economic, Business, and Agricultural Affairs. Faryar Shirzad, NEC/NSC rising star.

Most Influential Press China Watchers

Bruce Stokes, Charlie Snyder, Times Joe Kahn, New York Times Beijing bureau chief Neil King, Wall Street Journal Dan Sneider, San Jose Mercury-News syndicated Bill Kristol, The Weekly Standard columnist Peter Brookes, Heritage Foundation, columnist, Chris Nelson, The Nelson Report Dave Sanger, New York Times Ted Alden, Financial Times Susan Lawrence, Far Eastern Economic Review

SUMMER 2004 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 31 THE MAGAZINE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY 2099 Avenue, N.W. Suite 950 Washington, D.C. 20006 Phone: 202-861-0791 Fax: 202-861-0790 www.international-economy.com