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September 2005 the Official Bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis THE ISBA BULLETIN Vol. 12 No. 3 September 2005 The official bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis AMESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT his editorial board for all the work that they have put in on this venture and congratulate them on by Sylvia Richardson having produced such an exciting issue. It is now ISBA President up to all ISBA members and the Bayesian commu- [email protected] nity at large to help sustain the journal by submit- ting their recent work for publication in our jour- I hope that you all have had a productive break nal. making full use of the conference season to spring towards new statistical challenges. It is remark- AMESSAGE FROM THE EDITOR able to see how, nowadays, the Bayesian ideas are intertwined in so many sessions at the major sta- by J. Andr´esChristen tistical conferences. We must carry on striving to [email protected] continue to create links with other societies and interest groups and the recent creation of ISBA This issue of the ISBA Bulletin is specially varied sections is a step in this direction. Preparation with several interesting columns to read. Of spe- for a high point in our calendar, the joint Valen- cial interest for ISBA members are the ISBA Elec- cia/ISBA meeting in 2006 is well under way and tions section and the Valencia/ISBA call for Oral the ISBA programme committee chaired by Kerrie Presentations. Also, the Bulletin web page is up Mengersen is now calling for oral contributions. I again with all 2004 issues available: http://www. am sure that all of you are looking forward to par- cimat.mx/∼jac/ISBABULLETIN. I hope you enjoy ticipate in our next conference and that we can an- reading this issue of the ISBA Bulletin. ticipate a record number of abstracts being submit- Contents ted! ' $ While travelling over the summer, some ® ISBA Elections Bayesian fellows visiting London made a pilgrim- Page 2 age to the Reverend Bayess grave at Bunhill Fields. They found that the grave has deteriorated, is at ® VALENCIA/ISBA INFORMA- risk of collapsing and that the Reverend Bayess TION name is not clearly visible. The maintenance on Page 6 the grave was last carried out in 1999 thanks to the personal effort of Tony OHagan. It is now becom- ® BAYESIAN HISTORY ing urgent to organise new repairs and to envisage Page 6 a solution towards a regular upkeep. I will keep ® ANNOTATED you posted on developments and ideas on how the BIBLIOGRAPHY society can be involved. I would like to thank Dale Page 9 Poirier and Lisa Tole for their keen interest and finding out useful contacts with the city of London ® STUDENT CORNER historic buildings department. Page 14 The last month has seen the remarkable achieve- ment of the publication of our new electronic jour- ® NEWS FROM THE WORLD nal Bayesian Analysis. I must thank Rob Kass and Page 15 & % SUGGESTIONS PLEASE, FEEL COMPLETELY FREE TO SEND US SUGGESTIONS THAT MIGHT IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF THE BULLETIN [email protected] ISBA Bulletin, 12(3), September 2005 ISBA ELECTIONS THIS YEAR ELECTIONS President Elect Nominees by Jim Berger [email protected] Peter Green The 2005 elections of future ISBA officers will Affiliation and current status: Professor of Statis- take place electronically at the ISBA web-site tics, and Henry Overton Wills Professor of Math- (http://www.bayesian.org/election/voter. ematics, University of Bristol, UK. Web page and html) from October 15 through November 15. In- email address: http://www.stats.bris.ac.uk/ structions for voting will be emailed to all current ∼peter; [email protected]. ISBA members prior to the election. I am delighted Areas of interest: Bayesian computation and to announce that the 2005 Nominations Commit- MCMC, graphical models, spatial statistics, mix- tee has assembled a remarkable slate of candidates tures and hidden Markov models, gene expression for the election. In alphabetical order by office, the modelling, applications in physical sciences. 2005 candidates are: Honours: Fellow of the Royal Society, 2003; Fel- For President Elect: low of IMS, 1991; Royal Statistical Society Guy • Peter Green (UK) medals in Silver (2001) and Bronze (1987). ISI Highly-cited Researcher (author #4 mathematical • Rob Kass (USA) science paper, 1995-2005). Journals and books: JRSS(B), JASA, Biometrika, For Board Membership: Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Journal of Com- • Marilena Barbieri (Italy) putational and Graphical Statistics, Highly Struc- tured Stochastic Systems (edited jointly with N. L. • Wes Johnson (USA) Hjort and S. Richardson), Nonparametric regres- • Steve MacEachern (USA) sion and generalized linear models: a roughness penalty approach (with B. W. Silverman), Complex • Manuel Mendoza (Mexico) Stochastic Systems (ed. Barndorff-Nielsen, Cox, • Judith Rousseau (France) and Kluppelberg).¨ Previous service to ISBA: none yet, but I would • Simon Wilson (Ireland) be pleased and honoured to begin. • Brani Vidakovic (USA) Service to other Societies: Royal Statistical So- ciety (member of Council, 1986-89, Hon. Secre- • Jim Zidek (Canada) tary, 1988-94, Chair Research Section, 1996-99, Pres- Biographical information for each of the candi- ident, 2001-03); Institute of Mathematical Statis- dates appears below. The candidates for president tics (member of Council, 1998-2001); Bernoulli So- have also included statements about what they in- ciety (member of Council, 1991-96); Chair, Euro- tent to accomplish. This information is also cur- pean Science Foundation network on Highly Struc- rently accessible on the ISBA web-site. tured Stochastic Systems (1993?95); Associate Ed- The 2005 Nominations Committee was ap- itorships: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, pointed by the ISBA Board under the direction Series B (1984-89), Journal of the American Statisti- of President Sylvia Richardson. The members cal Association (1988-93), Annals of Statistics (1995- of the Committee were Jim Berger (USA), Guido 2000), Biometrika (1998-2002, 2005-), Scandinavian Consonni (Italy), Dipak Dey (USA), Chris Holmes Journal of Statistics (1994-98). (UK), Daniel Pena˜ (Spain), Fabrizio Ruggeri (Italy), and Jon Wakefield (USA). Beginning our delibera- My view of ISBA tions in early July, we compiled a large list of po- tential candidates for each office. The final slate The last 15 years or so has been a great success story was then selected through rounds of approval vot- for Bayesian statistics, and ISBA has played a big ing and ranking. Because of the abundance of tal- part in this. With imaginative leadership, a strong, ent in ISBA this was a nontrivial task, and I greatly lively and truly international research community appreciate the diligence of the committee members has been built. It is time now to build on past suc- in making some tough choices. Finally, I am very cesses, to create an even livelier future for the sub- grateful to all the candidates for their willingness ject and its participants. to serve and lead ISBA. Through them the bright Members often cite the “family” qualities of future of ISBA is assured. ISBA as key to its success, and to their motivation 2 to join in its activities. It is extraordinary, and very Rob Kass rewarding, to be part of a circle of friends who may be broadly dispersed geographically but are nev- Affiliation and current status: Professor, Depart- ertheless close scientifically, easy to communicate ment of Statistics and Center for the Neural Basis with spontaneously by email, and magically there, of Cognition, Carnegie Mellon University. http: ∼ in person (eager to buy you a drink even) when //www.stat.cmu.edu/ kass; [email protected]. you check in to that hotel in Chile, or Crete, or Is- Areas of interest: Bayesian methods (duh!), tanbul, or Cape Town! This network of relation- Statistics in neuroscience; functional data analysis. ships is very special and we must preserve it. But Honors: Elected Fellow, ASA, IMS, AAAS; 3rd healthy families do not keep all their relationships most highly cited researcher in mathematical sci- “in the family” and I think we should continue to ences, 1995-2005 (Institute for Scientific Informa- strengthen our network of relationships outside the tion). Bayesian community. We should do so for both “in- Previous service to ISBA: Vice President, 1994- ward” and “outward” reasons: to enliven our own 1996; Board of Directors, 1998-2000; Founding debates by input from other communities –both of Editor-in-Chief of Bayesian Analysis (2004-2006). statisticians and other researchers– and to give our- Service to other societies: U.S. National selves new channels for extending the reach and in- Academy of Sciences, Board of Mathematical Sci- fluence of Bayesian ideas into other disciplines. ences and its Applications, 2003-2005; U.S. Na- We probably need to have a debate about how tional Institute of Statistical Science, Board Mem- best to do this, but some steps in the right direction ber, 2004-2006; Chair-elect, Chair, Past-Chair, Sec- could be: tion on Statistics, American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2003-2006; IMS Council • Expanding the range of ISBA sections. 1999-2002; Chair-elect, Chair, Past-chair, ASA Sec- tion on Bayesian Statistical Science, 1996-1998; Ex- • Further encouragement of joint meetings ecutive Editor, Statistical Science, 1992-1994; Ed- with other societies, in statistics, in other itorial board member: Annals of Statistics, 1985; data-analytic disciplines, and in applied JASA, 1986-1992; Biometrika, 1996-2003; Statistics fields. in Medicine, 1991-1992. • Dissemination of Bayesian ideas in popular science media. My view of ISBA • More material for non-experts on the ISBA The new journal Bayesian Analysis matched its website. founding organization in both name and spirit, • Establishing “policy” working parties on hoping to reflect an outward-looking view of its major areas of statistical application where subject as something of interest not only to statisti- Bayesian approaches have been resisted (e.g.
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