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In writing this Digest, the Editor extends his personal apologies to members for its delay. This was caused by a material deterioration in his health, notably Parkinson's Disease, as a result of which he needed to spend some time in hospital. Happily he is now back at home and, following the festive season is returning to his duties, the first of which is the preparation of this report. In so doing he takes this opportunity to send his personal best wishes to all members and their families for a successful, happy and healthy New Year.

CONFIDENTIAL NIGERIA DIGEST – January 2016

 Education  New Government Plans & Reorganisation of the Teaching Profession in Nigeria Immediately following his appointment as Minister of State for Education, Professor Anthony Amuka has inaugurated the first stage of a complete overhaul of teaching in Nigeria, which he stated as a priority of the new Government, due to the fact that primary school pupils were still being taught by teachers whose policy was directed towards their pupils' higher education to study such subjects as chemistry, or biology which is at complete variance with Government policy for the childhood curriculum. As a result a significant number of teachers will receive personal training on the techniques and necessity of childhood education which is known to be one of the new President's priorities and is clearly reflected in the allocation to the sector in the 2016 Budget.

 Enugu State Government Just before Christmas Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State announced to his State Executive Council that he had received approval from the World Bank for a grant of N1.5 billion, which had been matched by a counterpart funding from the State Government to enable it to introduce the State Universal Education System to all primary schools in the State. Additionally a small part of the grant will enable the State Government to renovate certain primary schools that are in a diabolical and dilapidated condition.

 Nigeria Tertiary Education Trust Fund It has recently been announced through the TET Fund that 28 Nigerian Universities have been ranked amongst the top 100 best such institutions in the whole of Africa. This is a significant achievement and has been made possible by the substantial investment of the TET Fund into tertiary institutions during the last four years throughout Nigeria as five years ago no Nigerian University at all was ranked amongst the top 100 in Africa.

In December the Minister of Education inaugurated an ad hoc Committee to investigate petitions alleging abuse of due process, mismanagement, immorality, fraud and corruption (amongst others) at a total of 10 tertiary institutions including seven Universities and three polytechnics. The Committees were only given 10 days to submit the report of their findings which are now being studied by the Minister for Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu and it is already known that some of the petitions were proved to have substance. This is expected to result in changes against governing councils and management of the institutions concerned as well as possibly leading to criminal proceedings.

 Ondo State During his tenure of office, which began in 2009, the former State Governor, Olusagun Mimiko, has spent N2 billion on building 50 Caring Heart mega-schools, complete with all modern teaching facilities. These meet the standards of child friendly schools in Nigeria and will be able to provide students with good quality education throughout the State.

In addition, the former State Governor announced that amongst his other achievements was the renovation of 97 primary and 240 secondary schools throughout the 18 local government areas of the State. N200 million was allocated to the State Library Board for the acquisition of relevant, modern text in core subjects. He also funded 93 shuttle buses throughout the State for the daily conveyance of students to and from their schools.  Delta State Scholarship Board – Executive Secretary At the Delta State High Court in Asaba in the first week of December 2015, the EFCC, following an intensive investigation and subsequent interrogation of the principals being tried (namely the Executive Secretary of the State Scholarship Board, Peter Amromanoh, together with his accountant Andrew Nkwor) through its council laid out its case that the accused had opened 28 bank accounts in order to divert bursary payments meant for students in which they had deposited N24 million. According to Counsel, in total 3,567 names of people who had opened bank accounts were found to be fake. Additionally, an account officer who is currently still at liberty had access to N19 million which he had diverted from the State Government Treasury to the fake account.

 Niger State According to the United Nations (UN), the insurgency caused by Boko Haram has resulted in over 150 schools being unable to provide, and 12,000 pupils being unable to receive, any form of education since February 2015 primarily due to a series of attacks by Boko Haram on the town of Diffa. Although the 12,000 children have places on camps for displaced people there are no schools in these camps. Nearly 50,000 of Diffa's 0.5 million residents have lost their homes following a number of attacks by the insurgents.

 Jigawa State A major national newspaper has just published an in depth study into the appalling state of the education in this State, and in particular the conditions in schools under which pupils are being taught. The majority of schools have no furniture – tables or chairs – a situation that deteriorated during the period 1999-2007. As a result, following this investigation by the EFCC the State Governor Ibrahim Turaki, who occupied that position between 1999-2007, is now being prosecuted for criminal conspiracy, stealing, money laundering and misappropriation of public funds involving N36 billion.

According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, in 2007 Jigawa State ranked worst amongst the thirty-six States of the Federation on the Human Development index. In the years between 2005-7, according to the World Bank, the number of State Primary Schools rose to 1,959 and then to 2,114, before a number was closed leaving only 1,778 in the entire State three years later. As a result the number of school pupils fell by over 200,000 in the same period.

It is alleged that the schools have become dilapidated as a direct result of the State Government’s inability to access UBEC Intervention Funds because of the necessity of providing counterpart funding, and also because funds allocated to that education sector in the State were used for other purposes including building new executive quarters and guest houses for local government chairmen in the State. As a result the recent State Governor, Suke Lamido, is also now being prosecuted by the EFCC for allegedly receiving over N1 billion in bribes from contractors in the State, which were allegedly paid into accounts managed by his sons. It is quite clear that had that money been properly used for education purposes, the situation in the State schools would be significantly improved. It will take at least four years of APC Government to at least begin to reverse this terrible tragedy.

 Borno State Government Similarly but even worse, the Borno State Government has revealed that since 2009, Boko Haram insurgents have killed 350 teachers, destroyed 520 schools and 1000 classrooms. Borno State has borne the worst of the insurgency and as a result both multi-lateral international organisations, the Federal and State Governments are making tremendous efforts to ensure that children who have lost their homes or had their schools destroyed are still receiving education. Those children affected are all now receiving education in either internally displaced persons camps or in the major towns such as Maiduguri, Chadi and Biokusa, where the insurgents have been driven out and school buildings have been reconstructed.

 Kwara State On January 4 th the Nigerian Union of Teachers in Kwara State announced that primary teachers in the State would embark on an immediate strike as a protest over the non-payment of salaries. This now dates back over 4 months, despite the N1.2 bail out arranged by the President last year.

 The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation In a recent report published by UNESCO it claims that there are over 60 million illiterate Nigerians, and that it would take the country at least 58 years to completely eradicate illiteracy, even with innovations such as information and communication technology as well as other modern learning mechanisms. This damning view of education in Nigeria was made known at an international workshop on teaching and learning at the Afe Babalola University Ado Ekiti by the National Programme Officer of UNESCO, Mohammed Alkali, when he explained that UNESCO is primarily targeting the number of children in Nigeria which receive no education at all, a conservative estimate of 11.5 million out of a total of 172 million.

2  Politics  President ’s New Cabinet As promised during his visit to President Obama in July, President Buhari finally complied with the statement made at that time in Washington. On 29 th September at 4.59pm (exactly one minute before the Senate closed for business for 5 days) the President submitted his list of nominees to be appointed to his cabinet. In fact he made his nominations in two stages, the first on September 29 th when he submitted 21 names and the second in October with a further 16 names. Each person named had to undergo consideration, investigation and questioning by the Senate before finally gaining approval.

The names of the 37 nominees caused no particular surprises with the possible exception of the losing APC gubernatorial candidate in , whom the President had personally nominated for his cabinet, but subsequent events proved this appointment to be extremely troublesome and complicated. There was only one contentious nominee for screening, the former Governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, whose administration is currently under investigation by a special team from the EFCC. The Senate continually postponed his screening until finally, on the very last possible day, it gave approval to his nomination. A list of the cabinet members together with their individual portfolios is given below: - Names (State) Ministerial Portfolio (11/11/2015) 1. Okechukwu Enemelah (Abia) Industry, Trade and Investment 2. Muhammadu Bello (Adamawa) FCT 3. Udo Udo Udoma – (Akwa Ibom) Budget and National Planning 4. – (Anambra) Labour and Employment 5. Adamu Adamu (Bauchi) Education 6. (Bayelsa) State for Agriculture 7. Audu Ogbeh – (Benue) Agriculture 8. Mustapha Baba Shehuri (Bornu) State for Power, Works and Housing 9. Pastor Usani Uguru (Cross River) Niger Delta 10. Ibe Kachikwu – (Delta) State Minister for Petroleum 11. Ogbonaya Onu- (Ebonyi) Science and Technology 12. Osagie Ehanire – (Edo) State for Health 13. Kayode Fayemi- (Ekiti) Solid Minerals 14. Geoffrey Onyema (Enugu) Foreign Affairs 15. Amina Mohammed – (Gombe) Environment 16. Prof Anthony Onwuka (Imo) State Education 17. Suleiman Adam – (Jigawa) Water Resources 18. Zainab Ahmed (Kaduna) State Budget and National Planning 19. Sen Hadi Sirika – (Katsina) State Aviation 20. Abdulrahman Dambazau- (Kano) Interior 21. Abubakar Malami – (Kebbi) Justice 22. Barr James Ocholi (Kogi) State Labour and Employment 23. Lai Mohammed – (Kwara) Information 24. Babatunde Fashola -(Lagos) Power Work and Housing 25. Ibrahim Usman Jibril – (Nasarawa) State Environment 26. Abubakar Bawa Bwari (Niger) State Solid Minerals 27. Kemi Adeosun – (Ogun) Finance 28. Cladius Omoleye Daramola (Ondo) State for Niger Delta 29. Isaac Adewole (Osun) Health 30. Barr. Adebayo Shittu – (Oyo) Communications' 31. Solomon Dalong – (Plateau) Sports and Youths 32. Rotimi Amaechi – (Rivers) Transportation 33. Aisha Abubakar (Sokoto) State for Industry and Trade 34. – (Taraba) Women Affairs 35. Hajia Khadija - (Yobe) State Foreign Affairs 36. Dan Ali (Zamfara) Defence

The new Ministers, without exception, have moved into dynamic action to begin their new and extremely important duties. The key portfolios of Budget and National Planning, Finance, State Budget and National Planning and Education were awarded to Udo Udoma, Kemi Adeosun, Sainab Ahmed and Adamu Adamu. For the first time in Nigeria's history (as far back as Independence) a Cabinet Minister has been appointed who is not a politician. The new Group Managing Director of NNPC, Ibe Kachikwu has been appointed Minister of State for Petroleum Resources and reports daily to the President on what is actually happening in Nigeria's key oil sector. Whilst he has stated publicly the President will not be the Minister of Petroleum Resources, in effect that is exactly what is happening in practice. 3 The former successful Governor of Lagos State, Babantunde Fashola, was appointed Minister of the newly created and amalgamated Ministry of Power, Works and Housing, whilst Rotimi Amaechi was awarded the portfolio of Transportation. In another new initiative move, Mrs Kemi Adeosun has been appointed Nigeria's Federal Minister of Finance. She has an excellent track record, being a qualified accountant, having extensive experience in investment banking before being appointed Finance Commissioner of Ogun State. She will work very closely with the new Ministers of Budget and National Planning who together are expected to introduce new policies to encourage domestic manufacturing and in particular direct foreign investment which is so badly needed at the present time, and to prioritise and complete Nigeria's key capital projects.

In his election campaign, the President made clear that (should he succeed in his ambition) education would be one of his administration's new priorities, and this has been proven with his choice for the new Minister of Education, Mallam Adamu Adamu. This Ministry, as shown later in this Digest, has been given priority in terms of budget allocation, allowing the new Minister to oversee substantial investment in capital expenditure in renovating dilapidated schools, and for construction of new ones, whilst at the same time reforming the whole of Nigeria's education curriculum.

President Buhari's primary policy is the fight against and, as far as possible, complete elimination of corruption. It is notable that, since he assumed office, N50 billion has been returned to the Central Bank from various unnamed and unknown individuals who had abused their previous positions to their own advantage. In acting as they have, they all hope to avoid criminal prosecution.

In order to ensure the success of the President's mission, in December he established a Presidential Committee on Anti-corruption. This is Chaired by the renowned legal expert Professor Itse Sagay. He and members of the Committee have been instructed to devise a strategy to co-ordinate the policy of pursuing corrupt individuals, closing all possible loopholes to avoid any future repetition of such acts which is expected to lead to substantial changes throughout all Ministries, Departments and Agencies and a very significant increase in the number of prosecutions conducted by the EFCC in conjunction with the ICPC and the Nigerian Police. It therefore came as no surprise when the President announced the dismissal of the Chairman of the EFCC, who has been sent on terminal leave. He has been replaced by a former Assistant Commissioner of Police, Ibrahim Nagu whose stance on corruption and success in its pursuit has been noted as highly successful.

Since the Committee published its report, it would appear almost daily - and certainly weekly - comes news of further evidence of corruption by former politicians or senior management of MDA's. In Edo State, the new Government has discovered US$31 million, which was supposed to be used to finance the Adrant Cement Company, which was planned to increase significantly its production of cement by taking advantage of the large scale limestone deposits in that part of the State. Following an investigation, it has been revealed that the former administration had instead diverted the funds to the accounts of senior State Government Commissioners, which suggests that the former Governor and his Deputy may have also been involved in this criminal act. As a result the State Executive Council has directed the Attorney General to commence legal processes to recover all of the stolen money and to prosecute all those involved.

In Gombe State, the former Governor Alhaji Danjuma Joge has been accused of forging a resolution allegedly approved by the State Assembly to secure a N5 billion facility from Access bank for his own personal benefit.

In Benue State, the new State Governor Samuel Orton has inherited a debt of N90 billion from his predecessor, who had campaigned on a specific 5-point agenda including a commitment to good governance and revenue security. However, 4 months later came the news that N558.7 million has been spent to acquire luxury vehicles for his aides and local Government Chairmen. Specifically he authorised the purchase of 13 Prado Land Cruiser SUV's at a total cost of N240.5 million, (at a cost to the State Treasury of N18.5 million each) which compared to the cost at different car company suppliers in the State capital who were selling identical vehicles for only N11 million each. N318.2 million were spent on the acquisition of 43 new Toyota Corolla cars, which cost N7.5 million each. Investigations have revealed very quickly and easily that such vehicles normally sell for N5 million each, which is a clear breach of the provisions of the RAMSC law who have now mounted an investigation into these transactions.

According to the President, within a period of only 6 months, his Administration has discovered that at least US$150 billion has been stolen from the National Treasury as a direct result of corruption by former Minister and officials. As time progresses, the finger of accusation will appear to be moving closer to questions being raised specifically against the former President and his immediate past Minister of Finance. In December the Premium Times , a major national newspaper, published two separate reports claiming that the two above mentioned individuals had illegally diverted N61.4 billion, (which had been previously stolen by the late Head of State Sani Abacha and subsequently recovered) and diverted the funds to the National Security Advisor, Sambo Dasuki.

4 In mid December 2015 the former Minister of Finance issued a statement, through her media advisor, confirming that she had indeed paid N63 billion from these funds to the former NSA to specifically finance military operations, but there is no supporting evidence to show that this was authorised by the Federal Executive Council.

On this terrible subject for Nigeria, the President has stated publicly for two consecutive months that in respect of stolen funds there would be no plea-bargaining accepted by his administration. He reiterated this just before Christmas, in a clear reaction to the news that some senior politicians have offered to refund over N 650 million that they claim to have collected from the former NSA.

 Bayelsa State and Kogi State Governorship Elections. The elections to appoint new Governors to Bayelsa and Kogi States were held on November 21 st . Due to the fact that twelve local government areas were unable to vote in the former election, INEC declared the result inconclusive as the leading candidate at that time had not recorded a sufficient majority in excess of the number of voters who had been unable to cast their vote. Accordingly a new election was ordered to be held within 90 days.

A similar situation occurred in Kogi State. Although there were 21 candidates contesting the nomination, in reality it was a straight contest between the PDP and the APC candidates. Here again, INEC had been forced to cancel certain polling units within the State due to a number of factors. When the result was announced at 4.30 pm on that day, it showed that the APC candidate, Abubakhar Audu, was leading the PDP candidate Idris Dwada, by 240,867 votes against 199,514. This resulted in INEC declaring an inconclusive election result for exactly the same reasons as in Bayelsa State.

The whole electorate - and the country - were stunned when less than 5 hours late Prince Abubakhar Audu collapsed on his way home, complaining of stomach pains, and subsequently died within a matter of hours. There is no precedent in Nigeria's democratic history, for such a situation. Eventually INEC ruled that the election in the whole State would have to be re-run on December 5 th , which meant that the APC had to select a new candidate at extremely short notice indeed. They succeeded very well with Alhaji Yahaya Bello, who on December 5 th was successful in the new election and is now Governor of the State.

 Election Tribunals Ever since the elections were held in March-April 2015, INEC State tribunals have been inundated with petitions, and tribunals were created to consider them and to determine who had actually won elections in a number of States. These included Abia, Akwa Ibom and Taraba States. In all three States, the INEC State election tribunal nullified the governorship election result and determined that the petitioner, i.e. the losing candidate, should indeed have won the election and therefore declared three new Governors in their correct position.

In Abia, the deposed (so-called) winning candidate appealed the State tribunal's decision at the Court of Appeal. On 31 st December, the Court declared that Alex Otiti, representing the All Grand Peoples Alliance had indeed defeated Governor Okezie Ikpeau, representing the PDP, and declared the former to be the official State Governor. It ordered the PDP candidate to vacate the Governor's House within a matter of 24 hours.

In Taraba State, where the governorship election had originally been won by , (PDP), this victory was overturned by the INEC State Election Tribunal. They ruled that the APC's Aisha Alhallan had in fact won the election, and therefore she became the first female Governor in Nigeria’s history. At the Court of Appeal in this decision was overturned, and the Court declared that in fact the PDP candidate was the valid election winner, and so the APC candidate should therefore stand down with immediate effect.

In Rivers State, as widely expected, came the news that the Governorship election result in December was invalid. The PDP candidate, who received over 1 million votes, could not have won this election because there were only 274,535 accredited voters in the election! In all of the 36 States of Nigeria this was the most contentious and, from the start, clearly subjected to political influence at very senior levels of the former administration. The tribunal ruling comes as no surprise at all and, here again, a new election will have to be held at a date yet to be determined.

 Colonel (rtd) Sambo Dasuki - National Security Advisor 2011-15 With the benefit of hindsight, it would seem that almost immediately since his inauguration President Buhari has been on a mission to indict the former National Security Advisor. He is facing criminal charges including treason, criminal possession of firearms, money laundering and allegations in relation to the fictitious award of arms supply contracts during his term of office. In the latest development the SFS laid siege to his house, preventing him from leaving to travel abroad to seek medical treatment. Despite appeals in the courts, he currently remains in custody, as, if he is allowed to leave the country, the new administration is of the firm belief that he will never return.

5 As it has always been the responsibility of the National Security Advisor and his office to arrange all contracts for the supply of arms to Nigeria, he has subsequently been questioned in relation to the findings of the Committee on Arms Procurement between 2007-15, specifically in relation to the award of fictitious contracts, failed contracts, and non- execution of contracts. His plight worsened further when the former President Jonathan stated, “I did not award any US$2 billion contracts for the procurement of weapons.”

This is an extremely serious turn of events for the former NSA, a member of the Sokoto royal family, and considered as one of the most influential, powerful, and richest people in the whole of Nigeria. The Nigerian newspapers have publicly questioned this “witch-hunt” by the President as to whether there is any connection to the fact that the former NSA was one of four military officers who arrested the then former Head of State in 1985, and removed him from office leading to President Babangida assuming power.

There is no doubt that the EFCC has never been so busy in its entire history, in interrogation and prosecution of corrupt individuals and organisations. At the time of going to press, bearing in mind that the President has declared publicly that over US$150 billion was stolen during the tenure of the previous regime, it is currently conducting 10 trials – all relating to corruption - in various courts throughout the country, either by former Government Ministers, former State Governors or Government organisations. It can only be expected in 2016 that there will be a very substantial increase in the numbers of such criminal proceedings.

 The Senate President During the past two months the situation regarding the future of the Senate President, who had previously been a 2- term Governor of Kwara State, has become notably more serious and uncertain due to the trial he currently faces of thirteen separate charges at the Code of Conduct tribunal. He is accused of corruption and false declaration of assets that he was required to declare when he assumed the office of State Governor in 2003. At that time he signed an Asset Declaration Form to the effect that his entire assets (including cash, property and shares both in Nigeria and overseas) were valued at N8 billion, whilst those of his wife were N1.8 billion, and his 4 children had assets of N202 million. Following a major investigation he was initially charged on 8 counts, but this was subsequently increased by an additional five charges as a result of further investigations relating specifically to his property and other assets declarations.

Whilst he obtained temporary respite from an appeal to the Supreme Court to suspend his trial, it has resumed. In view of the well-known anger of the President regarding the way in which the accused engineered his APC colleagues to vote for him as Senate President, at this time his future looks very uncertain indeed. If convicted, not only will he have to resign from the Senate but also it is likely that he will face prison and substantial financial penalties.

 The Economy  Federal Government 2015 Supplementary Budget In November, President Buhari submitted a supplementary Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly, seeking its permission to release N465.63 trillion from the Consolidated Revenue Fund. Of this N460 trillion is recurrent expenditure and a mere N4.99 trillion for capital expenditure, which will be used specifically to complete essential, ongoing infrastructure capital projects. In addition, the President requested the National Assembly for authority to increase Government borrowing to N1.60 trillion through the issue of new bonds by the Debt management office in order to specifically finance the fiscal deficit. The supplementary budget was subjected to intensive scrutiny by the National Assembly during December and subsequently approved before being sent to the President for his signature on 30 th December 2015.

 The Federal Government 2016 Budget Following approval from the National Assembly of President Buhari's Government's Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper as required under the terms of the 1999 Constitution, the President himself presented his 2016 budget to a joint session of the National Assembly on December 22 nd 2015.

The new budget proposes total expenditure of N6.077 trillion, of which N1.85 trillion is allocated for capital expenditure, N2.65 trillion is proposed to cover recurrent expenditure, and N1.47 trillion has been allocated for debt service (of which N 1.31 trillion is for domestic debt interest and N 54.84 billion for interest on foreign loans). Additionally N351.37 billion has been allocated for statutory transfers including N77.11 billion for the Universal Basic Education Scheme. The National Assembly has been allocated N115.000 billion (a further decline in successive years).

It is very pleasing to be able to report that the Federal Ministry for Education has been awarded N37.00 billion for capital expenditure and N369.56 billion for recurrent expenditure. These are the highest allocations to any individual Ministry or project in the entire budget.

6 The Government has proposed the budget on an oil production estimate of 2.2 mbpd, at a cost price of US$38 per barrel (but already the National Assembly is seeking to reduce this figure to US$33) a figure which has never been achieved during the last 7 years. Non-oil revenue will realise N1.4 trillion, which combined with oil revenues, projects a total revenue target for 2016 of N3.86 trillion. This will, in part, be financed through new foreign and domestic borrowing of N900 billion and N986 billion respectively. This, as it stands, means that the budget has a fiscal deficit of N1.04 trillion, but a substantial part of this deficit will be recovered due to the abolition of the kerosene subsidy.

Almost unnoticed so far, there is no allocation in this budget for petroleum subsidy which in January was reduced to N86 per litre, as a result of the fall in the world oil price, and there are clear indications that in the coming months the price will be reduced even further. As the Senate President has declared publicly that he will make a clear statement of all of the final details of the approved budget to the Nigerian people, it will be very interesting to see their reaction to the missing petroleum subsidy fund.

Further revenue will accrue to the Federal Government from different sources apart from those mentioned above. These include the benefit of the restructuring of Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies, as all revenue generating MDA's must now remit at least 25% of their profit to the Federation Account. As further revenue is received from stolen funds during the year, Nigeria's economic prospects look considerably more realistic and achievable. This allows the new Government to introduce a series of social reforms for the first time in the country's history.

As a result of the new Government's policies and actions since coming to power, it has closed a large number of loopholes which in the past have lost the National Treasury substantial sums of money. As a result, 2016 will see N1.51 trillion new revenue coming from independent resources. Notably, the new Budget has an allocation of N500 billion for social welfare intervention programmes to ensure that all school pupils and students receive at least one meal daily. The revenue that is not used from the fund will be allocated to the payment of N5,000 to vulnerable persons, notably those who are poor and unemployed.

The Budget estimates that the recovery of misappropriated funds in 2016 will realise N 350.32 billion, which, as expected, means that in 2016 the focus will be on completion of power and transportation, and particularly aiding small scale businesses to diversify the economy, a policy which has been endorsed by all of the 36 State Governors. A complete breakdown of the individual sectoral allocations in the 2016 budget, if required, is available from the Editor via the BNET Secretariat office, at no cost.

The President has declared his budget as, “ the budget of change” and this is clearly the theme throughout the entire budget proposals, which introduce a significant range of new economic revenue sources and assistance to the priority sectors of the economy. In short, the President has delivered precisely what he promised in his election campaign, which is to be greatly welcomed.

There is perhaps only 1 negative comment to make, which is the allocation for capital and recurrent expenditure to the Presidency and State House, on which his predecessor spent N11.5 billion in 2015; in the new Budget President Buhari proposes to spend N18.1 billion. Although he proposes a substantial reduction of N80 million in 2016 compared to his predecessor's expenditure, State House headquarters expenditure has increased from N5.09 billion last year to N11.9 billion this year. The Vice President's budget has been increased from N227 million last year to N321.8 million this year without any explanation being provided. Notably there is a substantial reduction at the State House on food, related materials and dinner services, as the proposed allocation has been reduced from N526.2million to N445.5 million.

It should not be forgotten that the new President refused the expenditure of N4 billion on the acquisition of new cars for him and his Ministers and aides. He stated that the previous regimes' equipment, being so new, would be completely satisfactory for his own purposes.

This has allowed him to move to cancel proposals in the National Assembly to spend N4.7 billion on the acquisition by the Senate of 120 Toyota Land Cruiser SUV's. The Lower House is proposing to acquire 20 new vehicles, all of which will be equipped with the most modern security and surveillance equipment (at an unknown total cost, at the present time). However, it does seem a terrible example to be set by the National Assembly and an unnecessary spending of vital funds which could be used towards the finishing of critical infrastructural projects, notably in the power and education sectors.

On the subject of 2016 capital expenditure, the Minister of the new, combined super-powered Ministry of Housing, Works and Power, Babatunde Fashola, has announced that the Federal Government will re-introduce a highway tolling on major roads and expressways throughout the country. In the first instance, the money will be used to begin the reduction of the outstanding debt of over N2 trillion owed by the Federal Government to over 206 different construction companies. 7 In the new budget the “super” new Ministry only received N34.25 trillion allocation for recurrent expenditure, but a massive N433.4 billion was received for capital expenditure. This will lead to the appointment of thousands of new jobs for unemployed Nigerians who hitherto have been ignored by previous administrations, and the new Government has declared that by the end of the year it intends to see the creation of one million new jobs.

 The Federation Allocation Accounts Committees Two days before Christmas the FAAC met to decide on the allocation to the three tiers of Government of the revenue received during November. The newly appointed Minister of Finance, Mrs Kemi Adeosun, informed journalists that following the Committees deliberations, in November gross statutory revenue only amounted to N297.5 billion, a substantial fall of N102.86 billion achieved in October.

This she attributed as being partly due to ongoing maintenance and shut down for repairs at various oil terminals during the month, which had a major impact on crude oil and gas revenues. A breakdown of the revenue reveals that statutory revenue amounted to N297.45 billion, revenue from VAT amounted to N61.18 billion and exchange rate gains achieved a bonus N4.92 billion. Additionally there was a N6.3 billion refund from NNPC.

As a result the Committee decided that of the revenue received the Federal Government was allocated N139.5 billion, the 36 State Governments N70 billion and the local Governments N54.55 billion. From the VAT revenue the Federal Government was allocated N8.8 billion and the 36 State Governments N 29.36 billion, with N 20.55 billion going to the local Governments. In addition the nine oil producing States received an extra N25.6 billion in accordance with the 13% derivation allowance.

Earlier in the month, Nigeria's Governors Forum held their monthly meeting in Abuja. After a long discussion, it announced that it was no longer able to pay the statutory N18, 000 minimum wage, primarily due to the sharp decline in oil revenues leading directly to a substantial drop in the monthly allocation from the FAAC. Subsequently they sought a meeting with the President to discuss this very worrying and extremely serious situation. In the interim the House of Representatives has written to the President asking him to submit proposals for a new Revenue Allocation Formula for the three tiers of Government in Nigeria. The current formula was originally enacted in 1982 and amended in 1992, and included that figure in the 1999 Constitution.

Under the terms of the Constitution it is in fact the responsibility of the Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Commission to perform its statutory function and determine the country’s revenue allocation formula. Accordingly a similar letter was sent to the RMAFC requesting them to undertake a review and to determine a new revenue sharing formula. In passing its approval for this action, the Lower House determined that should the RMAFC not respond, the House would have no option but to go to court for a writ of mandamus, which would compel the RMAFC to perform its functions and undertake the essential revue of revenue allocation.

As a consequence the State Governments, who recently received a N1.2 bail out fund authorised by the President to essentially pay all outstanding to workers dating back in some cases over 50 months, have had no alternative but to seek finance. In the last two months there have been four States that have obtained new finance, either domestic or internationally, in order that they can meet their obligations and continue with capital projects.

The latest State Governments to take this action include Anambra, which has obtained a N10 billion loan from the Central Bank of Nigeria (specifically to complete ongoing projects) at an attractive interest rate of only 9%. The loan is repayable in 20 years.

Kano State, which is already N300 billion in debt, is seeking a new N24 billion loan of which N10 billion is specifically allocated to fund ongoing salaries and to repay all pension arrears. The Kwara State Governor recently announced that he would be accessing another N20 billion bond from the capital market in Nigeria in order to fund capital projects in the State.

The Lagos State Government had raised N87.5 billion through the issue of fixed rate bonds, which were used to execute the ongoing construction of the light railway in Lagos. In addition to this, beginning in 2009, the State Government issued further bonds totalling N275 billion and has also benefited with finance from multilateral international organisations. In terms of debt alone it is by far the most indebted State Government in Nigeria, but internally generated revenue is more than sufficient to cover the salary and contractual obligations even before it receives the monthly allocation from the FAAC.

There is a great danger quickly emerging of the State Governments being bailed out by the President, and then getting deeper into debt for which they cannot afford to meet either the interest or the repayment schedules at the present time.

8  Power Power and the seemingly unending crisis in the sector, which can be traced back as far as Independence in 1960, is now the responsibility of the 'super'- Minister Babantunde Fashola (the most successful State Governor in history). Such is his power and influence, and particularly the importance of his portfolio, that in the 2016 budget his Ministry was allocated N34.25 billion for recurrent expenditure, which will allow the Government to pay all of the outstanding debts incurred by the former administration to 206 contractors alone which amounts to N1.87 trillion.

For capital expenditure his Ministry has been allocated N433.4 billion for 2016, with priority being given particularly to power and roads. If there is any Minister in the country who can resolve these problems, it is this new Minister. Since the new Government assumed power on May 29 th electricity generation throughout the country has increased by over 500 mw to a record 5.5 million mw. As a result of the number of National Independent Power Plants completed in the last two months, the President's target of achieving electricity generation of 6 million mw by the end of January 2016 will have been met and is a record.

A recent survey revealed that 75% Nigerians have no access to a regular power supply. This is primarily due to major problems in the transmission network, and ongoing problems between the Nigerian Regulatory Authority and power suppliers. Recently came the news that presently there are 50 communities in Lagos, with 200,000 residents, who have not received any form of electricity supply for the past sixteen years. The combination of President Buhari and Babatunde Fashola will ensure that the bureaucracy that has severely impacted on Nigeria's power problems will be eliminated very rapidly indeed.

As a first State to resolving these problems the World Bank has granted the Transmission Company of Nigeria a US$30 million grant to study the nature of the electricity demand and energy mix in Nigeria which will determine how the Government will proceed in resolving this situation. Already the Government has obtained permission from the International Atomic Energy Agency for approval to build a number of new nuclear power plants, which on completion will be able to generate power in excess of 1,200 mw. Additionally the Government plans to eliminate the notorious gas-flaring abuse continued by the oil companies, which it is estimated costs Nigeria US$2.5 billion annually in lost revenue. As a result the Government has already begun the necessary procedure to terminate this waste so that the gas can instead be used by the National Grid and increase substantially the level of electricity generated and available in the country.

Unexpectedly, a major problem has emerged regarding the Egbin Power Company, which is the largest power generating facility in Nigeria with an installed capacity of producing 1320 mw of electricity. The company has an agreed project arrangement with the Federal Government to increase its power generation to 2670 mw by 2019. Work to begin on the necessary construction expansion is currently hampered by the fact that the company is owed N39 billion. This is as a result of the agreement signed with the Federal Government under which terms this increase would be achieved as a result of the activation of the Power Purchase Agreement and Gas Supply Agreement which was signed last year but which has not been activated.

In theory the company has access to a N213 billion Power Intervention fund in an account at the Central Bank of Nigeria, but the company has only been able to draw 25% of this because the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Authority subsequently changed the terms of the electricity tariffs in Nigeria.

President Buhari's new administration has begun the process of finally resolving Nigeria's notorious 'epileptic' electricity power generation, and as a result has secured a US$30 million grant from the World Bank to study the precise nature of the electricity demand, load, supply and total requirements for the future. In June the International Atomic Energy Agency visited Nigeria to conduct an integrated nuclear infrastructure review mission with the purpose of diversifying Nigeria's traditional power sources through the provision of nuclear power energy. As a result, in November it submitted its report and findings to the Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.

The Chairman of the Nigerian Atomic Energy Commission, Erapampo Osaisai, has stated that as a result Nigeria now plans to make each of its power plants capable of generating power in excess of 1200 mw. His Commission has a nuclear power roadmap, which is currently being approved by the Government and which is expected to be a forthcoming highlight of the 2016 Federal Government Budget. The implementation of the roadmap will require the construction of new nuclear power infrastructure, which will be partly financed by the Government, and will involve partnership with international agencies and technical experts in the building of the power stations as well as ensuring that the power will then be transmitted to the National Grid.

It has recently been estimated that despite the huge investment made in the energy sector since the privatisation of the power holding companies of Nigeria, 75% of the Nigerian population (over 170 million) still live without access to a regular electricity supply. According to a document which has just been published by the Nigerian- German Energy Partnership Nigeria is losing approximately 50% of its power generation, transmission and distribution as a direct result of ageing infrastructure.

9 The report highlighted that many existing gas fired and hydro power plants in the country are very old and nearing the end of their service lives. It goes on to state specifically that the current cause of unstable power can be attributed to 11% generation difficulties, 14% as a result of difficulties with the transmission system, and 22% from distribution problems. It recommends that the Government should request official assistance from the international community, (specifically the EU) to obtain concessional loans for the construction of small scale solar power plants for rural areas, primarily in the North. As there is no gas infrastructure in that part of the country there would be no purpose in building gas power plants there. The advantage of investing in solar power is that its plants can be built in a maximum of three years compared to the six years, for example, that it would take to construct a coal fired power plant. This is what is being done at present in Enugu State.

During November power supply dropped by 480 mw solely due to vandalism on the Okyai-Onitsha double circuit transmission line which evacuates power from the Oktia Power Station in Delta State to the National Grid. Fortunately this had only a minor effect on the power situation during the month, which remains steady in excess of 41,750 mw.

However a serious problem has been identified by the Chairman of the Egbin Power Company, Kola Adesina, who has revealed that the company is owed N39 billion in respect of power it has generated into the National Grid between November 1 st 2013 and October 31 st 2015. This was due to the fact that the Power Purchase Agreement and Gas Supply Agreement that were negotiated and signed with the Federal Government, and which created the new Transitional Electricity Market, have not actually been activated so the Company is owed this huge amount of money. As a result, the Egbin Power Plant is unable to operate at optimal capacity and use the money that they are owed to finance the planned expansion of the plant to hit a target of generating 2,670 mw by 2019.

The real blame for this predicament lies entirely at the doors of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Authority which has failed to impose the agreement. They changed the tariff model that was agreed for the purpose of establishing the CBN fund and thus caused the current crisis. President Buhari has ordered a priority investigation into this crisis, which will then allow the Egbin Power Plant and others to access the N213 billion Power Intervention Fund, which is sitting idle in the Central Bank of Nigeria.

One positive development during the month was the news that the Federal Government had issued the Akwa Ibom Power Plant a licence to generate an additional 495 mw of electricity to the National Grid with immediate effect, bringing its generating capacity up from 190 mw to 685 mw, which is a notable achievement by one of the first independent power plants constructed in Nigeria.

During its investigations and hearings during the month, the Senate ad hoc Committee on Power (which is investigating activities and investment in the power sector during the last 8 years) heard a presentation from the former Minister of Power, Professor Barth Nnaji, who blamed the perennial power supply problems solely on the inability of regulatory agencies to discharge their duties effectively. Whilst expressing his personal regret that in spite of the huge investment over the period that Nigerians had not been able to enjoy normal power supply, the primary problem was the poor transmission. He claimed that only 50% of power that is distributed to the transmission companies is conveyed successfully to consumers.

A classic example of this has emerged during the month with the news that over 250 residents living in 50 communities near the Bagdagry West local Government area of Lagos State have been without any form of electricity for the last sixteen years. The area was subject to a devastating rainstorm in 1999, which uprooted all of the electric power transmission poles, which connected these communities to the National Grid. Despite incessant requests, demands and protests to both the Lagos State Government and the Federal Government, the situation has not changed since then. The affected area is close to the border with neighbouring Republic of Benin, where the Nigerian Customs Service generates billions of Naira annually, and this year alone is expected to reach the target of N13 billion. It is known that in the last three years that the Nigerian Customs Service at the border has generated N9.6 billion and since 1999 a total of N115 billion.

 Oil and Gas As a result of a directive from the President in the last quarter of 2015 NNPC announced that it was terminating all offshore processing agreements (OPA’s) with companies who were allocated crude oil produced in Nigeria to be exported refined and re-imported into Nigeria for use a petrol at the current world price. Or in other former OPA's the refining countries had just paid NNPC a sum of money but it has been proven within the last 10 months that prior to this decision these OPA's had resulted in NNPC being short changed receiving substantially less revenue than they should have from these agreements to the amount of US$1 billion per annum during the last four years. In previous years contractors who obtained licences for OPA's numbered over fifty.

10 In 2016 where at present the four refineries in Nigeria are unable to operate at full capacity there have only been sixteen contracts awarded to process and specifically return the refined oil as petroleum to Nigeria, at the original selling price. Nigeria is the only remaining oil producing country in the world that operates OPA's.

In future NNPC will only award direct sale purchase contracts which should totally eliminate the involvement and activities of middle men in Nigeria's crude oil production and sales to their own personal benefit, with subsequent loss to the national treasury. The Group Managing Director of NNPC (The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources) reports to the President daily and has now targeted the desperate need to be able to utilise Nigeria's four oil refineries and despite the statement in the middle of last year, according to the latest available figures, they are only operating at a combined capacity of a mere 1.96%. It is now a major and essential part of Government strategy as well as financial necessity to rectify this deplorable situation, which will not be fully resolved until 2017 when the Dangote private oil refinery comes on stream and alone will be able to refine all of Nigeria’s domestic petroleum refining needs.

The other two immediate priorities are to finally ensure the passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill, which has been held up by the seven previous National Assemblies. With the substantial majority currently enjoyed by the APC in the National Assembly, there should be no difficulty in achieving this. It has already been agreed that the original draft will be rewritten and presented to the National Assembly as three separate bills for their consideration and passage.

The other key priority is dealing with piracy, which remains a major problem. Recently it was revealed that between January and October 2015, in the waters of the South - Eastern sector of Nigeria, the Nigerian Navy intercepted and apprehended over 1500 ships, barges and boats carrying out illegal activities almost exclusively involving stolen oil. The vessels involved were subsequently destroyed and over 2,000 men who had been crewing them were handed over to the Nigerian Police Force for interrogation and criminal prosecution.

As promised, and for the first time in history, NNPC publicly announced its first set of accounts. For the month of September 2015, it made a loss of N59.4 billion. In a statement, NNPC added that during the first nine months of 2015 it experienced losses of N437.7 billion. The loss amount for September compares to an almost identical amount in August of N60.67 billion. Over 75% of NNPC's deficit is accounted for by the Pipeline and Products Marketing Company amounting to N336.83 billion caused by unclaimed subsidies, pipeline repairs and management costs as well as crude products losses and vandalised pipelines.

Due to the problems with the oil refineries a shortfall of petrol has arisen in non-NNPC petrol stations throughout the country. Although the official price is N86 per litre (which prevails at NNPC stations) others may charge as much as N300 per litre in sparsely populated country areas in the middle belt and Northern part of Nigeria. The shortfall of available fuel has been compounded by the debt owed by the Government to the oil marketeers who had previously benefited under OPA's and it was not until mid November that the Federal Government authorised the final outstanding payment to the oil marketeers of N413 billion. This has (at the time of going to press) finally resulted in the availability and price of petrol at all petrol stations returning to normal.

In relation to gas, the President's blueprint strongly encourages development in the gas sector, and that is seen to be the key, even thought it costs money to get more gas to industries and homes. The Government intends to concentrate on distributing stranded gas in the country by getting selected key partners to transport gas across the country, whilst getting the oil measures to commit to contracts to produce more gas for domestic consumption.

The key is seen to be the gas pipeline system in the country, but the Government has not yet awarded the contracts for the necessary projects that upon completion benefits for all parts of the country that are currently suffering due to the lack of power. The Government intends to invite major Nigerian and international companies to participate in drilling for new gas and explore, find and develop new fields that will make the country self sufficient in gas. It is recognised that Nigeria loses approximately US$2.5 billion per annum as a result of gas flaring, and this will almost certainly be the starting point for the President’s Gas Expansion Policy.

Meanwhile the House of Representatives ad hoc Committee on Refined Products Exchange Agreement/Crude Oil swaps accused NNPC and the Pipeline and Products Marketing Company of being deliberately uncooperative in respect of its investigations, and enquiries, into the Crude Oil Swap regime. In essence, the Committee is investigation corruption in Crude Oil Swaps that took place until the recent change. Despite numerous requests by the Committee for documentation in respect of contract deeds, the award of certain contracts, the transfer of crude oil, receipts of products and completion of contracts and Annual Reports from 2005 to date, they have not been forthcoming. As a result the House intends to take appropriate action to force both organisations to produce the documentation by issuing a subpoena forcing them to appear before the Committee. The investigation is also connected with the current problems of scarcity of petrol, in certain areas around the country, which has been going on for the past 8

11 months. As a result, although the official price for petrol is N87 per litre in Lagos, in middle and northern Nigeria the price is significantly higher, and in Borno State it is as much as N300 per litre, which is a clear breach of Government regulations.

The scarcity of petrol in certain parts of Nigeria is solely caused by marketeers and the Pipeline and Products Marketing Company, and the significant delays in distributing petrol throughout the country, whereas at petrol stations owned by NNPC, the price remains at the regulation N87 per litre.

As a result the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources has issued a directive that all petrol stations must remain open for 24 hours and will have police providing protection for them. In addition, the Department of Petroleum Resources has been instructed to impose serious penalties on petrol stations selling petrol at above the regulated price. Within 24 hrs of that announcement NNPC stated that it had dispatched 38,277,955 million litres of petrol to the Pipeline and Products Marketing Company depots throughout the country, out of which the Department of Petroleum Resources said a total of 149 trucks were specifically supplied to Abuja and the surrounding area.

In the following week a further huge consignment went to non- NNPC petrol stations, specifically to petrol stations in isolated areas in the middle belt and Northern Nigeria, concentrating mostly on service stations along main roads as opposed to cities.

 Dienzi Alison-Maduke- former Minister of Petroleum Resources. The situation of the previous Minister of Petroleum Resources under the former administration has deteriorated significantly during the past two and a half months. During this time she has been arrested by the Metropolitan Police and subsequently, together with her mother, was formally charged with money laundering and other offences at the Southwark magistrates Court.

She was granted bail but has had her international passport confiscated. The next hearing of the charges will be in February, but since then the discovery of a significant number of alleged illegal acts by the Minister during her tenure of office have been revealed. This is probably the primary reason that she left Nigeria before the end of the presidential election and has not returned to Nigeria since then. Clearly she hoped to avoid being charged in Nigeria with various crimes. During her visit to the UK, part of which was for treatment for cancer (which in October led to a mastectomy from which she is currently recovering) so many illegal acts in Nigeria have been identified involving her that the trail is beginning to lead directly to the former President. With the pursuit and ultimate elimination of corruption in Nigeria, President Buhari has a major problem in how he proceeds to take any action against his immediate predecessor, against whom a number of alleged illegal acts have been revealed.

Amongst the allegations being made against the former President is one involving the diversion of N61.4 billion, which represents stolen funds from the former dictator Sani Abacha, which was returned to Nigeria under certain conditions. Instead the former President authorised the funds to be allocated instead to the former National Security Advisor Sambo Dasuki. As a result the former NSA has had the number of charges against him increased by a further nineteen. These include extra budgetary spending of N643.8 billion and US$2.2 billion.

Given the nature of the relationship between President Buhari and the former NSA, the former must have personally authorised the transfer of such funds. Slowly the noose is tightening around the necks of the both the former President and, more currently and significantly, his former Minister of Petroleum Resources.

In December following her arrest in London and subsequent court charges, the former Minister of Petroleum Resources issued a statement to the Boss newspaper in which she emphatically denied stealing US$20 billion during her tenure of office and in the paper she appeared to be “begging Nigerians for forgiveness, or at least for some slack in their criticism (or is it hatred of her guts)” claiming that she was entirely innocent of all of the allegations being made against her in Nigeria. The allegations against her include her spending more than N10 billion on travel alone, an allegation that immediately prior to her tenure of office she obtained oil mining licences for OML 40 and OML 42 from the Nigerian Petroleum Development Company, which she has had transferred to a private company closely linked to her. The revenue from these two substantial, high producing oil fields will provide enough revenue for the Minister to retire for the rest of her life and live in complete luxury.

There remains major doubt over her involvement in the scandal caused by the former Governor of the CBN (and now Emir of Kano) who claimed that US$20 billion had not been remitted to the Federation Account but had instead been diverted by the Minister. Additionally, she failed to enforce the directive issued by the late President Yar'Adua that subsidy on kerosene should be terminated immediately; it continued until 2015 and cost the treasury N331.54 billion in 2011 alone - her first year as Minister.

12 The other two major allegations circulating Nigeria involve her relationship with the former President (and which is generally regarded to have been extremely personal and controversial) as well as her alleged involvement in the oil subsidy scam which rose from N300 billion in 2011 to N2.3 trillion in just 6 months following her appointment as Minister of Petroleum Resources. It is quite clear that she faces a term of imprisonment, the confiscation of all her assets and a very long and uncertain future as a result of the very detailed and proven allegations made against her.

 Boko Haram Since the creation of the Joint Military Task Force (JMTF) which involves over 7,500 troops and the launch of Operation Lafido Dole there has been resounding success in their operations. As a result, Boko Haram has been reduced to being able to launch only the occasional attack on towns and villages, primarily to obtain food and money, and the arranging of suicide bombings, mainly by young female children.

There is no doubt that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the insurgency within Nigeria, which can be traced back to beginning as a result of the abduction of the 276 children from Chibok in April 2014. This led to various countries throughout the world providing the Nigerian military and air force with substantial modern equipment, which Nigeria had previously been denied access to, as well as providing training in terrorism tactics.

The previous administration spent N1.25 trillion on acquiring military equipment, which represents 40% of the entire security budget during that period. Amongst the hardware acquired with this money were 42 Sat-Com Downlink FORATR-Maritime patrol aircraft, 2 offshore patrol vehicles (N 5.2 billion each), 2 different offshore patrol vessels specifically designed to travel on the small creeks leading to Boko Haram and the thieves stealing Nigeria's crude oil, N2.9 billion on S-791 combat aircraft and 3 FC-1 trainee aircraft as well as N1.2 billion for a substantial number of anti- aircraft guns. The responsibility for the purchase and agreement to acquire such equipment has always rested ultimately with the National Security Advisor.

Boko Haram has been driven out of all of the major towns, villages and cities that they had previously captured and are now trapped in the Sambisa Forest, where slowly the JMTF is destroying them in a major operation, taking considerable time due to the fact that the entrances to all of these camps are surrounded by minefields. For the last two and a half months the Nigerian Air Force, together with the counterpart from Chad, have mounted a 24 hour round the clock bombing campaign over the Sambisa Forest, thus clearing the way for the JMTF to proceed with their military actions. As a result of the latter over 1,000 innocent Nigerian citizens have been released from a variety of camps. The amount of munitions recovered during this operation would finance any country's military requirements indefinitely; such has been the tremendous acquisition of modern hardware by Boko Haram.

In the last four years over 42,000 Nigerians have lost their lives as a direct result of the Boko Haram insurgency. So far there is still no sign of the Chibok schoolgirls, who one suspects must now have been married off to fundamental Muslims. It is known that over 100 of them have been tortured or raped during their period of capture.

In the middle of November the International Criminal Court in the Hague issued a preliminary report on Nigeria’s military operations in which are identified eight possible criminal acts against humanity and which may lead to prosecution of those named. Additionally, there are allegations of war crimes under Articles 7and 8 of the ICC's Statutes, and six of these cases were perpetrated by Boko Haram.

Amongst the alleged crimes committed by Boko Haram during the period January 2012- October 2013 were the facts that 70 teachers and over 100 schoolchildren were killed, and the abduction of the 276 schoolgirls from Chibok, which undoubtedly was the most notorious act in Nigeria's history. The two cases against the Nigerian military concern an allegation that more than 7,000 people from Boko Haram had died in military detention following their arrest during the last four years. The second case concerns the Nigerian army's battle to recapture Baga in Borno State where at least 228 people were killed.

 Prospects 2016 promises to be an excellent year for Nigeria with prospects for new investment, peace at last and Nigerians are benefiting from a very substantial amount of international finance which, together with the plans of the new Administration, will revolutionise Nigeria and its economy during the next four years.

Circulated January 14, 2016

The content of this publication has been prepared by a Nigeria Correspondent for The Britain-Nigeria Educational Trust and whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the information, the Trust cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omission. It is recommended Members seek further advice before basing decisions upon the detail given in this Digest.

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