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Terrorism Warnings As Strategic Appeals: an Analysis of Press Reporting and Public Reactions

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Terrorism Warnings As Strategic Appeals: an Analysis of Press Reporting and Public Reactions University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship Political Science, Department of 7-2012 Terrorism Warnings as Strategic Appeals: An Analysis of Press Reporting and Public Reactions Eric Whitaker University of Nebraska-Lincoln Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/poliscitheses Part of the American Politics Commons Whitaker, Eric, "Terrorism Warnings as Strategic Appeals: An Analysis of Press Reporting and Public Reactions" (2012). Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship. 19. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/poliscitheses/19 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Political Science, Department of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. TERRORISM WARNINGS AS STRATEGIC APPEALS: AN ANALYSIS OF PRESS REPORTING AND PUBLIC REACTIONS by Eric A. Whitaker A DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of The Graduate College at the University of Nebraska In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Major: Political Science Under the Supervision of Professor Elizabeth Theiss-Morse Lincoln, Nebraska July 2012 Terrorism Warnings as Strategic Appeals: An Analysis of Press Reporting and Public Reactions Eric A. Whitaker, Ph.D. University of Nebraska, 2012 Advisor: Elizabeth Theiss-Morse Do politicians appeal to fear, and if so, how does the public respond to potentially fear- inducing messages? I reason that changes in the political environment necessitate entrepreneurial efforts if politicians hope to maximize positive attention. Scholarship indicates that presidents can often shape press coverage or move public opinion, particularly in the domain of foreign policy or during national crises. In this dissertation I conceptualize government-issued terrorism warnings as a type of fear appeal. Specifically, I examine the relationship between changes in aggregate presidential approval and the timing of terrorism warnings over the two and one-half years after the 9/11 attacks, and whether warnings were related to changes in the overall tone of news coverage for the Bush administration and select policies. On balance, the evidence suggests that strategic considerations informed the timing of terrorism warnings as presidential approval was negatively associated with publicly disseminated terrorism warnings, and the tone of coverage tended to become more positive following each alert. I then use experimental methods to examine patterns of individual-level responses to mediated messages about terrorism. Drawing insights from the fear appeals literature and political science research, I reason that cognitive (threat perceptions and confidence in government) and affective (fear and anger) responses to news coverage about terrorism-related threats should relate to policy preferences and presidential approval. Further, because terrorist threats target the national group, I consider how one‘s sense of identification with the American people relates to cognitive and affective responses. The experimental results are mixed as cognitive and affective responses relate to policy attitudes in meaningful ways, but are unrelated to presidential approval, and national identity is largely unrelated to the outcomes of interest. In sum, this dissertation contributes to a more robust understanding of the types of strategic considerations salient at the elite level as politicians strive to maintain approval. Moreover, it extends our understanding of how people respond to terrorism- related messages by moving beyond 9/11 specifically. This study provides valuable insights for future research seeking to examine the use of emotional appeals in the political realm. Acknowledgements: The author wishes to express his thanks and gratitude to a number of people. First and foremost, I would like to thank my adviser, Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, for her guidance, support, and counsel throughout the project. Whatever professional success I have had over my graduate career is due in large part to your encouragement, advice, and willingness to push me to improve. In addition to Beth, John Hibbing, Kevin Smith, and Mike Wagner among many others, repeatedly demonstrated what it means to be a serious scholar. I only hope that I have successfully incorporated half of the many insights and examples you have demonstrated over the years into my analytic repertoire. I would also like to thank my many colleagues and co-conspirators during my graduate career: Dan Braaten, Shihyi ―Albert‖ Chiu, John Fulwider, Rebecca Hannagan, Eric Heinze, Mitch Herian, Carly Jacobs, Seema Kakran, Chris Larimer, Levi Littvay, Tina Mueller, Doug Oxley, and Stacey Springer. This long strange trip would have been far lonelier without your friendship, commiseration, and perspective. Cheers! Austin Davidson, Anna Ellermeier, Michael Lang, and Gillian Prentice helped to collect and code the New York Times articles used in the content analysis in Chapter 3. I appreciate all of your diligence and hard work. I would like to thank my basset hounds, Grace, who witnessed the birth of the dissertation, and Chloe, who gets to witness its culmination. While I am positive the trials and tribulations of this project meant absolutely nothing to you, at various points along the way your calming presence and silly antics helped to relieve stress and keep me sane. Over the years my parents, Jack and Charlene Whitaker, offered encouragement and support for many of my decisions. While we may disagree from time to time, I have always valued your point of view. Along with my parents, my in-laws, Nick and Sandy Goodvin, have eagerly awaited the end of this project. Now, finally, it has happened... you can enjoy your retirements. Without a doubt, this project would not have been completed without the loving support of my wife. Rebecca, space precludes a full accounting of the many ways you assisted in seeing this project though to the end, but let me say that while it may not have been consistently evident, your presence in my life and near constant patience have helped to keep me grounded. Thank you. Now, there was something about a trip to Hawai‘i... Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Overview of the Dissertation 7 Chapter 2: Theorizing Strategic Considerations and Press Behavior 14 Literature Review 20 Chapter 3: Public Opinion and Content Analysis Methods and Results 41 Examining the Relationship between Presidential Approval and Terrorism Warnings 44 Methods for the Public Opinion Analysis 44 Results for the Public Opinion Analysis 49 Examining the Relationship between Terrorism Warnings and the Tone of News 51 Coverage Methods for the Content Analysis 52 Results for the Content Analysis 64 Summary 76 Tables and Figures 80 Appendix 3.A: List of Government-Issued Terrorism Warnings 92 Appendix 3.B: Coding Instructions 100 Chapter 4: Theorizing Public Responses to Fear Appeals 109 Literature Review 114 Model Development and Hypotheses 124 Chapter 5: Experimental Methods and Results 137 Methods 138 Results 152 Summary 164 Tables and Figures 170 Appendix 5.A: Experimental Stimuli and Questionnaire 184 Appendix 5.B: Descriptive Statistics 192 Chapter 6: Conclusion 194 What Did This Study Accomplish? 195 How Do These Two Parts Fit Together? 198 Limitations and Future Research 202 References 207 1 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION The terrorist threat facing our country has evolved significantly in the last ten years—and continues to evolve—so that, in some ways, the threat facing us is at its most heightened state since [the 9/11] attacks. -- Janet Napolitano, Secretary of Homeland Security to President Obama, 2011 I’ve not seen in my lifetime any politician who is a heroic figure. The manipulation that all politicians use on one level or another is so transparent. -- Dean Koontz 2 The events of September 11, 2001, and the United States government‘s response to the attacks continue to condition American politics. For example, the Department of Homeland Security replaced the Homeland Security Advisory System (HSAS) on April 26, 2011. Gone is the five level color-coded chart introduced in the months following the attacks. In its place is the streamlined National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS), intended to ―more effectively communicate information about terrorist threats by providing timely, detailed information to the public, government agencies, first responders, airports and other transportation hubs, and the private sector‖ (Department of Homeland Security 2011). The NTAS is viewed by many as a response to the criticisms that plagued the color-coded HSAS chart (Schwartz 2010), and while the story generated significant news coverage a far more prominent event unfolded less than one week later. Late in the evening of May 1, President Barack Obama announced the death of Osama bin Laden. The culmination of a successful and daring raid carried out by U.S. Navy Seal Team Six in Abbottābad, Pakistan, bin Laden‘s demise realized one of the major goals of the war on terrorism.1 Thus, in the span of less than one week—and nearly ten years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks—two of the most recognizable features associated with the attacks were, in one way or another, eliminated. While these events are distinct
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