Phosphates and NPK Sample.Pdf
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Published by Profercy Phosphates SC Editor Tom Jago E [email protected] T +34 952 833 906 www.profercy.com Thank you for downloading a sample pack of our reports. Contact us The pack contains: If you have any questions regarding our reports and our A Profercy Trade Forecast subscriptions, please feel free to contact us using the Published monthly, our Forecasts assess the forms on our website, or by email: medium-term supply, demand and price prospects [email protected] for key products. A Profercy Weekly Report News and analysis on the short to medium term prospects for Phosphates & NPKs, as well as price ranges for the week (on the final page of the weekly report). Published every Thursday. A Profercy Daily Update Short, to-the-point news and insights, covering key market and industry news. Please note that our reports have been redesigned since the publication of the reports below, with changes to colour and layout. If you have any questions, please contact [email protected] © Copyright 2013 Profercy Ltd All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 01 Profercy hosphates &NPKs P 7 March 2013 GLOBAL PHOSPHATES POSITION DAP, MAP From the 14 February Report: Phosphates markets look to have turned the Americas: Tampa high-end corner in Europe and in several South American markets. steps up to $510s pt fob as US export “opportunity” tonnes available at that time in the low/mid $460spt Australia buys more late DAP. fob Tampa are now well below today’s market at $495-510pt fob for PhosChem Brazil bids intense at $515-520pt spot business to Mexico and a Trammo/MissPhos lot to Australia. The big fob as sellers pull up sharply to change into March is parallel demand from spot buyers in Brazil, Argentina, $530pt cfr. NOLA up from recent East & West Europe, African (Kenya & Ethiopia), plus hints of US domestic dip, back into high $460s pst fob. spring interest. As per our earlier calls, all of these markets had been deferring, aiming at 11th hour buying to pre-empt Indian contracts. For many, the last Europe, Middle East, Africa: minute is now. News of various DAP producer delegations in India have NW Europe DAP into upper surfaced; from Russia last week; and Morocco and the US this week. Internal $550s pt fca; Offers at $575-580pt meetings within OCP jv group companies, and at Mosaic India, normally bring cfr Atlantic, $560-565spt cfr Med. courtesy contact on the domestic DAP S&D, maybe not prices yet. For all other Kenya DAP award pending. spot buyers, Indian DAP import volumes more significant than the price. Asia: India import talks poised; One-minute briefing Formal subsidy notice awaited; Sabic sells minor new cargo to US export DAP values rise; TA sells Australia at $510pt fob Pascagoula Thailand; Bids in Vietnam. PhosChem sells $495pt fob minor lot to Mexico; Offers rise to low $505s US domestic DAP picks up to $465470 pst fob barge; Swaps flat forward Speciality NPKs: MKP stable; NOLA MAP at $455pst fob sees tentative re-export interest as Tampa firms tech MAP soft; Urea phosphate Brazil in talks on big OCP DAP/MAP volumes up to 200kt; Offers $530 cfr picks up again in Europe As local Brazil import interest builds, OCP unveils local Brazil presence Several traders pursue next Mexico avails into April; Fertinal holds out NEWS India budget gets luke-warm reception at macro level; Rupee weakens OCP, Brazil: OCP is launching Delhi rumours suggest higher-than-expected DAP subsidy; Rs12,350pt a new business model in Brazil, Saudi, Jordan still seen ready with a baseload at +/-$500pt cfr India establishing its first direct Sabic inclined to defer on Ethiopia talks; pending India subsidy news presence in the internal market European DAP prices make further moderate gains; NPK offers rise via OCP Fertilizantes Ltda, basis New USDA report 8 Mar; Dec ‘13 corn/wheat spread still a huge $1.80/bu its own inland logistics platform $ pt fob DAP $pt fob Tampa: Similar bottom-out 2013 vs 2012 from storage centers in ports and Tampa Both 2012 & '13 reversals ended 8-month bear markets agriculture heartland. 700 PRICING 650 600 DAP: US export top hits $4510pt fob; bids at $500-505 fob 550 500 MAP: Brazil bids in $520s pt cfr a. for big April shipment demand 450 b. 400 PROFERCY 350 PHOSPHATES & NPKs 300 Editor: Tom Jago 250 Tel: + 34 952 83 39 06 200 Cell: + 34 665 832 954 [email protected] www.profercy.com 7 March 2013 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs www.profercy.com Page 1 US exports: Trammo has sold a fresh 30,000t MissPhos DAP cargo for end March shipment to Australia, netting $510pt fob Pascagoula. This is US Balance (DAP/MAP) Trammo’s second DAP sale in Q1 for this market, benefitting from last Exports March year’s DAFF certification of the MissPhos facilities. PhosChem Brazil 85 Further fresh PhosChem business to EC Mexico is heard up $10pt from Australia 45 last week, to $495pt fob Tampa, this for 6,000t DAP shipping April. C America 6 Mexico 6 February program: Total US exports of DAP/MAP look to have Argentina, Urug 25 topped 400,000t in February (vs 360kt in Jan & 300kt in Dec). Contract/Sys* 105 PhosChem/Mosaic completed 20,000t DAP & K-Mag for Puerto *Various Japan, Canada, Latin Am Cabello, Venezuela against the mid-December IPSL import tender via CF KT/C Amer, Mex 12 Nitron. This was followed by 25,000t DAP in two lots ex Tampa for MissPhos TA/C America 8 Ecuador, against earlier spot business. TA/Australia 30 Domestic sales March program: PhosChem/Mosaic have a strong start to March exports from Tampa, with two DAP/MAP/MES handymax All producers - projected 525 combinations to Paranagua, Brazil, completing this week on the MV Total 847 AP Slano and MV Akili. These will be followed by Indagro’s 45,000t Est. Output Kt DAP vessel to Thailand is due to complete on the MV Vishva Ekta Carry from Jan programme +13 later this week. Mosaic 510 PCS 115 Swaps: March Tampa swaps have risen sharply with bids/offers CF 140 now at $505-515pt fob; overtaking April at $500-510pt fob. MissPhos 40 Tampa DAP/MAP Export Line Up – Feb (kt) Total 818 STX Azalea 20 Peru PhosChem 2 Stock build/draw (end Mar) -29 Thor Dynamic 15 Chile (+ K2O) PhosChem 3 Atlantic Arrow 20 Japan PhosChem 3 Saudi Balance (DAP) New Glory 33 Australia PhosChem 4 Sales – Jan Ocean Neptune 28 Uruguay CF/KT, Nitron 7 Sabic Ethiopia 100 Coreleader OL 20 New Zeal & Auz PhosChem 8 India 35 UBC Balboa 18 Mexico PhosChem 11 Thailand 23 Balsa 81 4 Colombia PhosChem 12 Spring Breeze 20 Colombia PhosChem 13 Sales – Feb Bansui 20 Australia (+ MES) PhosChem/Mosaic 15 Ma’aden China 60 India (last ‘12 contr.) 30 Medi Osaka 25 Brazil PhosChem 16 CS Crystal 28 Uruguay CF/Keytrade 18 Sabic India (last ‘12 contr.) 40 Tundra 30 Argentina (Neco.) Nitron/Phoschem, CF 19 Sales – Mar Manizales 7 Honduras PhosChem 20 Ma’aden Ethiopia 50 Satigny 6 Mexico (Altam.) PhosChem 22 Sabic Ethiopia 50 Sunlight Lilly 12 C America (+K2O) PhosChem 23 Thailand 15 Lennard 14 Mexico (Altam.) Keytrade/CF 24 Kenya (tbc) 25 Xiaoyi C 4 Ecuador PhosChem 25 Total 428 Promise 3 22 Ecuador PhosChem 25 Est. Output Bluebill 28 Argentina (Neco.) PhosChem 27 Dec/Jan carryover 115 Total 374 Jan 150 3 export lots due in Feb from TA/MissPhos Pascagoula, incl 30,000t to Australia; 6,000t DAP from PotashCorp ex Morehead City. US total seen exceeding 400kt in Feb. Feb 2wk turnaround 70 Mar 170 Tampa DAP/MAP Export Line Up – March (kt) Total avails 505 AP Slano 35 Brazil (+MES) PhosChem, Mosaic 2 Stock build/draw (end Mar) +*77 Akili 30 Brazil (+ MES) PhosChem, Mosaic 3 Vishva Ekta 45 Thailand Indagro, PhosChem 3 * MPC projected carry at end March has Sheila McDevitt 25 NOLA (pt cargo) Mosaic 4 scope for fresh business to Ethiopia, East Africa and potentially India. Both Ma’aden & Total 135 Sabic are comfortable waiting in this position 45,000t export DAP due in March from TA/MissPhos Pascagoula 7 March 2013 Profercy Phosphates & NPKs www.profercy.com Page 2 US domestic: Reports surfaced late this week of NOLA DAP business marginally higher inland and at NOLA. Last done is now heard back up OCP Balance (DAP/MAP) Kt into the mid/high $460s pst fob barge for March. Some sellers are now Sales Mar heard withdrawing up to $470pst for late March. Koch USA (M/D) 50 Helm USA (M + TSP) 25 Cross-gulf: Mosaic is shipping a large Tampa/NOLA part-cargo of Traders West Europe 75 about 25,000t DAP on the MV Sheila McDevitt. As MAP imports OCP East Europe 20 build (pricing below), DAP has been tighter through Feb at NOLA Brazil (M/D) 110 Imports: Russian and Moroccan MAP prices are heard marginally Kenya (D) 25 higher to $460pst fob; and Mexican into the low/mid $460s pst fob. Domestic (D) 40 Inland activity and pipeline movement continues slow in typical Total sales 345 mid-winter weather conditions. Est. Output DAP/MAP Feb/Mar carry 10 Tampa, NOLA DAP bottom-out coincidence 2012 vs '13 OCP* 325 Tampa & NOLA switch places to set market floor - metric equiv basis OCP/Bunge jv+ 30 675 Total avails 365 Stock build/draw (end Mar) +20 625 * Assumes OCP ramps up to regular rates of 80% load at Jorf by end March.