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Primary Voter Participation in Majority and Minority Parties and Electoral Realignment

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Primary Voter Participation in Majority and Minority Parties and Electoral Realignment PRir^ARY VOTER PARTICIPATION IN MAJORITY AND MINORITY PARTIES AND ELECTORAL REALIGNMENT BY RODERICK ASHBY MUNDY, JR. A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE COUNCIL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 1978 Copyright by Roderick Ashby Mundy, Jr. 1978 To my wife and parents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation is the product of assistance from a variety of persons and institutions. I first wish to acknowledge the guidance and advice I received from my supervisory chairman, Alfred B, Clubok , Professor of Political Science. I also wish to thank the other members of my committee: Richard K. Scher, Associate Professor of Social Sciences and Political Science; Victor A. Thompson Graduate Research Professor of Political Science; David P. Conradt, Associate Professor of Political Science; and John G. Saw, Professor of Statistics. I also wish to thank Eric M. Uslaner, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Maryland The following persons and institutions supplied some of the primary election data employed in this study: Miss Lorraine Fleury, secretary to the Deputy Secretary of the State of Maine, Elections Division; Ms. Charlotte Mullins, Executive Director of the Elections Office, Office of the Secretary of the State of the Commonwealth of Kentucky; Ms. Jeanne Burt, Reference Librarian, Department of Library, Archives and Public Records, State of Arizona; The Office of Secretary of the State of Iowa; and The Office of Secretary of State of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. iv Some of the remaining primary election data and most of the general election data utilized in this dissertation were made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. The Consortium provided general election statistics from the Historical Election Returns Study for Maine, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Kentucky. The Consortium provided some of the Florida primary election data and the Florida general election data which are from the Southern Primary and General Election Study. The data were originally collected by Professors Hugh D. Gramhan and Nurman V. Bartley. Neither the original collectors nor the Consortium bear any responsi- bility for the analyses or interpretations presented here. The remaining Florida primary election data were made available by the Political Science Data Laboratory, University of Florida. The New Hampshire primary and general election data were obtained from various volumes of New Hampshire's General Court Manual . Computer funds were made available from University Computing Support. I also wish to thank my draftsman, Margie Summers, and my typist. Sue Kirkpatrick. Finally, I wish to thank my wife, Delilah, who spent countless hours typing rough drafts of this work. V TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEGMENTS iv ABSTRACT viii CHAPTER 1. THE DECLINE OF ONE-PARTYISM IN STATES POLITICS 1 Notes 31 CHAPTER 2. MEASURING INTER-PARTY COMPETITION .... 34 Notes 62 CHAPTER 3. THE NORTHERN STATES 64 Maine 64 New Hampshire 84 Iowa 9 6 Pennsylvania 110 Summary 121 Note 121 CHAPTER 4. THE SUNBELT STATES 123 Arizona 123 Florida 135 Note 145 CHAPTER 5. KENTUCKY 146 CHAPTER 6. CAUSES OF ELECTORAL REALIGNMENT 162 Note 185 CHAPTER 7. THE NATURE OF STATE-WIDE REALIGNMENTS . 186 APPENDIX A. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE COMPLETE DATA SET 208 APPENDIX B. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE REDUCED DATA SET 230 VI Page APPENDIX C. CORRELATION R?^TRICES OF POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS . 252 REFERENCES 259 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH 264 vii Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graudate Council of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy PRIMARY VOTER PARTICIPATION IN MAJORITY AND MINORITY PARTIES AND ELECTORAL REALIGNMENT By Roderick Ashby Mundy , Jr. August 1978 Chairman: Alfred B. Clubok Major Department: Political Science This study examines and analyzes electoral change in seven states which historically have had one-party systems (Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania). Since the Second World War, the tradi- tional state minority parties have become more competitive in gubernatorial and senatorial elections. Three hypotheses were tested. First, the decline of one-party ism is the result of realigning electorates; a greater proportion of the state electorate begins to identify formally with the minority party of the state, and minority party success is not solely the result of short- term forces which disrupt the majority party coalition. Second, state electoral realignments are secular; gradual changes in the socioeconomic environment cause partisan shifts in the state electorate. Third, there is a two-tiered viii . party system in the seven selected states, a presidential tier with one voting pattern and a subpresidential tier with a different voting pattern. The third hypothesis was tested to demonstrate empirically the possibility that realignments at the state level can simultaneously occur with partisan disaggregation at the national level. Aggregate primary and general election data are em- ployed to test the hypotheses. A variation of V. O. Key, Jr. ' s, concept of the index of primary balance is used as the critical variable. The variable serves as the measure- ment of the degree of inter-party competition. In this study, the variable is defined as the ratio between the num- ber of voters participating in the historical minority party's primary and the number of voters participating in the majority party's primary. I argue that if the ratio increases over time, then the state's electorate is re- aligning in favor of the minority party. The measurement is used as the independent variable in a cross-county bivariate regression model which tests the first and third hypotheses. The primary balance index is then used as the endogenous variable in a path model which tests the second hypothesis The first hypothesis is confirmed for Maine, Pennsyl- vania, Iowa, and Arizona. In Florida and New Hampshire, there has been a partial realignment; however, minority IX party success in these two states depends on short-term forces which disrupt the majority party coalition. In Kentucky, minority (Republican) party success is the result of short-term forces. Results of path analysis, which was used to test whether realignments are secular, indicate that socioeconomic conditions explain in part electoral change. Unexpectedly, it was found that Democratic Party growth in the four northern states is associated in part with economic stagnation. Republican Party growth in Arizona and Florida is caused to a measurable degree by migration. There is a very slight relationship between Republican Party growth and industrialization in Kentucky. Finally, tests indicate that a two-tiered party system, as hypothesized above, exists in Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and probably in Arizona and Florida. In Kentucky, and probably in Iowa, the two- tiered system assumes a different form: the senatorial and presidential races are on one tier while the gubernatorial races are on a second tier. X CHAPTER 1 THE DECLINE OF ONE-PARTYISM IN STATES POLITICS During the last third of the 19th century, one-party systems evolved in many states. The South became the bed- rock of the Democracy while many northeastern and mid- western states, particularly those without large urban centers/ developed into strongholds of the Republican Party. The affective attachment which bound many 19th century voters to their respective regional parties was forged by the patriotism of the Civil War. Moreover, this affective attachment was transmitted often from one generation to the next (Dawson and Prewitt, 1969). However, the late V. 0. Key, Jr. (1949, 1956) hypothesized that sectional interests also were responsible for the repression of a second, viable party in states politics. Key (1964: 232) described sectional politics as involving "interests and attitudes by people of all sorts in a major geographical region against a similar clustering of interests and atti- tudes of the people of another region." Thus to Key, one important reason for the persistence of one-partyism in states politics was the continuing utility the party served in uniting the region's politicians against the "enemy." 1 2 Southern politicians maintained a united front on the problem of race relations. But another southern problem was a fluctuating world market affecting the agrarian economy (Key, 1964). In order to combat northern inter- ests, southern politicians used the Democratic Party as an instrument to forge southern unity. Democratic senators and representatives from southern states, re-elected term after term, gained disproportionate influence in Congress by obtaining powerful congressional committee assignments under seniority rules. They used the Democratic Party organization to promote and defend their region's economic and racial interests (Key, 1964). One spillover effect was that the Democratic Party became dominant in state matters. The local minority party, the GOP, worked under the handi- cap "that it [bore] the name of the enemy nationally" (Key, 1956 : 24) . Reasons for the continuation of Republican domination in northern states are more complex. The issue of the protective tariff, opposed by the South, bound together northern industrial and labor interests (Key, 1964). Although northern farmers were usually at odds with other interests over the tariff
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