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2018.08.09 (목) • 중국 산업 및 기업 분석 • China 추천종목 • 중국 시장 지표

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2018.08.09 (목) • 중국 산업 및 기업 분석 • China 추천종목 • 중국 시장 지표 2018.08.09 (목) 중국 산업 및 기업 분석 상하이자동차그룹 (600104 SH) China 추천종목 중국 시장 지표 YUANTA DAILY MARKET VIEW에 수록된 중국 관련 리서치 자료 중 일부는 YUANTA 상해/홍콩/대만 리서치센터 현지 애널리스트가 작성한 자료의 한국어판 서비스입니다 Analyst: Yuanta Research (중국) +86 21 6187 3832 / [email protected] 번역: Yuanta Research (한국) 중국 기업 분석 상하이자동차그룹 (600104 SH) 중국 자동차 시황 약세에도 7월 판매량 6.4% 증가 홍콩 주간 시황 7월 1~3주 중국 승용차 판매량 12.8% 하락에도 동사 자동차 판매량 전 년 대비 6.4% 증가: 중국자동차공업협회에 따르면, 중국 자동차 시장의 7월 도소매 판매가 하락을 지속하며 전체 판매량이 전년 대비 12.8% 하 락을 기록했다. 그러나 자동차 시장이 비수기이고 세금 감면에도 수요가 회복되지 않았음에도 불구하고, 업계 1위 업체인 동사의 판매량은 증가세 가 지속되고 있다. 동사의 7월 자동차 판매량은 484,000대로 전년 대비 6.4% 증가를 기록했으나, 중국 자동차 시장의 전반적인 약세로 인해 7.2% 증가한 6월 대비 0.8%p 낮았다. 합작사 판매량 SAIC-VW 은 회복, SAIC-GM 은 저조: SAIC-VW 의 7월 판매량은 152,000대로 전년 대비 15.2% 증가했다(6월: 1.2% 증가). 2018년 승용차 판매가 회복될 것으로 예상되고 New Lavida 및 Passat 의 판매량에 힘입어, SAIC-VW 의 판매량은 시장 전체 대비 높은 증가율 을 지속할 것으로 전망된다. SAIC-GM 의 경우, 3기통 엔진을 탑재한 Buick 에 대한 수요가 눈에 띠게 하락했다. Buick Hideo 의 7월 판매량 이 전년 대비 56.0% 하락한 15,000대에 그치며 SAIC-GM 의 7월 판매 량을 압박했다. 이에 반해, Cadillac 판매량은 전년대비 19.1% 증가한 14,300대를 기록해 고가 시장에서의 입지는 더욱 공고해지고 있음을 시 사했다. 주: 발간일 2018.8.7 15 Yuanta Research 중국 기업 분석 자체브랜드 판매량 전년대비29.8% 증가, 월간 NEV 판매량 3개월 연속 1만대 이상 기록: 7월 자체브랜드 판매량은 전년대비 29.8% 증가한 48,000대를 기록하였고, 1~7월 누적 판매량은 전년대비 50.4% 증가한 40.71만대를 기록해 증가율이 산업평균을 상회하였다. NEV 의 경우, Roewe 와 MG 판매량이 안정적인 증가세를 보이고 있는 한편 7월 자체브랜드 NEV 판매량은 전년대비 159% 증가한 1.04만대를 홍콩 주간 시황 기록하면서 3개월 연속 판매량이 1만대 이상으로 유지되고 있다. 7월 자 체브랜드 판매량 중 NEV 가 21.7%를 차지해 NEV 가 자체브랜드 판매 증가의 주요 동력이 되었음을 확인할 수 있었다. 하반기에는 Roewe Marvel X(최저사양가: RMB 30만)와 MG ZS 의 차세대 모델인 MG HS 의 출시가 예정되어 있기에, 2018년 자체브랜드 판매량은 70만대를 상회 할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 투자 의견 BUY 및 목표 주가 RMB 40.77 을 유지한다(2018E P/E 12.4배 수준). 16 Yuanta Research China 추천종목 ▶ Yuanta Investment Consulting (대만) 제공 China A 주 추천종목 주가 목표주가 YTD 시가총액 추천일 이후 신규 종목명 종목코드 투자의견 추천일 (RMB) (RMB) (%) (RMB mn) 수익률 (%) NOT 상해 초상은행 600036 SH 28.11 - -3.14 700,776 17/2/20 44.90 RATED 상하이자동차그룹 600104 SH BUY 29.04 40.77 -9.36 339,288 17/6/12 -7.07 ★ 화우코발트 603799 SH BUY 49.37 91.37 -38.46 40,965 18/7/23 -35.69 만화화학 600309 SH BUY 48.57 50.30 33.29 132,791 17/9/18 18.55 해라시멘트 600585 SH BUY 38.50 39.50 31.26 210,613 18/1/22 16.70 NOT 중국평안보험그룹 601318 SH 58.38 - -16.58 1,092,736 18/1/15 -24.82 RATED NOT 심천 하이크비전 002415 SZ 29.23 - -25.05 269,713 18/6/11 -25.43 RATED 강봉리튬 002460 SZ BUY 31.25 85.20 -34.67 34,840 18/1/15 -50.25 주: 1) 발간일 2018.7.23, 2) 단기 탑픽 (2 주) 종목 * 시장상황에 따라 주가가 목표주가 대비 상회할 수 있음 자료: Bloomberg, Yuanta Investment Consulting (대만) 홍콩 증시 추천종목 주가 목표주가 YTD 시가총액 추천일 이후 신규 종목명 종목코드 투자의견 추천일 (RMB) (RMB) (%) (RMB mn) 수익률 (%) 북경자동차 01958 HK BUY 6.13 10.10 -39.78 49,134 18/5/24 -21.41 길리자동차 00175 HK BUY 16.80 38.50 -38.01 150,832 17/8/21 -24.15 영달자동차서비스홀딩스 03669 HK BUY 6.84 13.50 -23.92 12,567 18/2/23 -19.05 보승국제홀딩스 03813 HK BUY 1.52 1.70 34.51 8,120 18/5/24 4.83 ★ NAMESON HLDGS 01982 HK BUY 1.14 1.55 -64.04 2,599 18/7/23 -2.56 중국왕왕식품 00151 HK BUY 6.28 8.70 -4.12 78,182 18/6/22 -15.36 정통자동차서비스 01728 HK BUY 4.40 9.60 -44.37 10,798 18/2/23 -26.67 비야디전자 00285 HK BUY 9.02 17.00 -47.00 20,324 18/5/24 -29.53 ★ 화신중국자동차 01114 HK BUY 10.48 25.00 -49.86 52,874 18/7/23 -4.55 삔지에과기 01665 HK BUY 0.94 1.62 -4.08 1,504 18/3/19 -21.01 주: 1) 발간일 2018.7.23, 2) 단기 탑픽 (2 주) 종목 * 시장상황에 따라 주가가 목표주가 대비 상회할 수 있음 자료: Bloomberg, Yuanta Investment Consulting (대만) 17 Yuanta Research China 추천종목 – China A주 China A 주 추천종목 초상은행 (600036 SH) ▶ 초상은행에 대해 긍정적인 견해이며 그 이유는 다음과 같음. 1) 소매금융 전략이 주효해 견조한 투자의견 NOT RATED 실적 성장 및 타사 대비 높은 수익성을 지속할 것으로 전망. 2017년 NIM은 타사 대비 30bp 주가 (RMB) 28.11 높을 것으로 예상. 2) 전체 자산대비 여신자산 비중이 55%로 시중 은행들 중 최고 수준(업계 목표주가 (RMB) - 평균 45%)으로, 금리 인상기에 최대 수혜주가 될 것으로 기대. 3) 타사 대비 우수한 자산 건전성 시가총액 (RMB mn) 700,776 및 뛰어난 리스크 관리 역량 추천일 17/2/20 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) 44.90 상하이자동차그룹 (600104 SH) ▶ 1) 2018년 1~2월 승용차 누적 판매량 117.29만 대로 전년 대비 11.6% 증가하며 업계 평균 (4.6%)을 상회하는 등 2018년에도 판매량 강세가 지속되고 있고, 2) 폭스바겐의 신차 사이클 및 투자의견 BUY 소비 업그레이드에 힘입어 차상위 고급 브랜드인 캐딜락의 판매량 증가세가 2018년에도 지속되고 주가 (RMB) 29.04 있음을 감안하여 동사에 대해 긍정적인 견해. 또한, 합작 브랜드의 판매량 증가율이 섹터 성장률 목표주가 (RMB) 40.77 을 상회할 것으로 예상되는 한편, 3) 자체 전기차, 지능형 자동차, ICV(지능형 커넥티드 자동차) 시가총액 (RMB mn) 339,288 및 공유형 자동차 개발에 박차를 가하고 있음. 알리바바 및 CATL와 공동으로 인터넷 자동차 및 추천일 17/6/12 신에너지차 개발 중 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) -7.07 화우코발트 (603799 SH) ▶ 연간 생산 능력 18,000톤 이상을 보유한 전세계 2대 코발트 생산업체이자 연간 생산 능력 투자의견 BUY 200,000톤 이상을 보유한 전세계 주요 구리 생산업체. 또한, 세계 최대 몰리브덴 생산업체이자 주가 (RMB) 49.37 주요 니오비움 및 인산질비료 업체 목표주가 (RMB) 91.37 ▶ 신에너지차의 급속한 성장과 코발트 가격의 높은 수준 유지에 힘입어 동사의 1Q18 매출은 RMB 시가총액 (RMB mn) 40,965 74.32억으로 전년 대비 28.53% 증가했고, 지배주주귀속 순이익은 RMB 15.5억으로 전년 대비 추천일 18/7/23 159.54% 증가 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) -35.69 만화화학 (600309 SH) ▶ 1) 전세계 MDI 생산량의 24.5%를 담당하고 있는 글로벌 선두주자로서 2018년에는 30만톤 투자의견 BUY 규모의 TDI 설비를 완공해 중국 내 주요 TDI 공급업체가 될 전망이고, 2) MDI 수급여건 개선에 주가 (RMB) 48.57 힘입어 MDI 가격이 높게 유지되면서 실적을 뒷받침해 줄 전망이며, 3) 기능성 재료 및 정밀 화학 목표주가 (RMB) 50.30 제품의 고속 성장이 지속되면서 점차 수입을 대체할 수 있을 것으로 예상되기 때문에, 동사에 시가총액 (RMB mn) 132,791 대해 긍정적인 견해 추천일 17/9/18 ▶ 2018/19년 예상 순이익의 전년대비 증가율은 21%/15%로 전망 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) 18.55 해라시멘트 (600585 SH) ▶ 1) 정책에 따른 추가 공급 축소와 견조한 수요에 힘입어 2018년 가격이 유지될 전망이고, 2) 주요 지역에서 시멘트 산업 호황 지속되고, 동사의 판매량과 ASP가 모두 증가할 것으로 예상 투자의견 BUY 되며, 3) 환경세 부과에 힘입어 동사의 비용우위가 강화되고 있고, M&A 통한 사업 확장을 주가 (RMB) 38.50 도모하고 있으며, 4) 동사의 2017년 풍부한 현금흐름에 힘입어 배당성향이 높았으며(2017년 말 목표주가 (RMB) 39.50 기준 현금성 자산이 RMB 104.3억으로 전년 대비 179.8% 급등했으며, 배당률도 9.1%p 높은 시가총액 (RMB mn) 210,613 41.1%로 증가하여 DPS RMB1.2기록(+240% YoY)), 5) 현재 주가 2018년 예상 P/E 9.3배로 추천일 18/1/22 국내 경쟁사 평균인 11배 대비 낮은 수준이라는 점에서 동사에 대해 긍정적으로 평가 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) 16.70 18 Yuanta Research China 추천종목 – China A주 중국평안보험그룹 (601318 SH) 투자의견 NOT RATED ▶ 동사는 금융, 기술, 자동차, 부동산업을 영위하는 중국의 최대 금융지주사이며, 2) 2017년 1~9월 주가 (RMB) 58.38 누적 개인 고객 수가 1억 5천만 명으로 전년 대비 22% 증가했고, 3) 보험대리인 증가와 목표주가 (RMB) - 내재가치 증가에 따라 동사의 보험사업 가치의 안정적 성장이 전망되고 생명보험 사업의 평균 시가총액 (RMB mn) 1,092,736 밸류에이션이 증가할 것으로 예상됨에 따라 동사에 대해 긍정적으로 평가 추천일 18/1/15 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) -24.82 하이크비전 (002415 SZ) 투자의견 NOT RATED ▶ 1) 6년 연속 감시카메라 시장 점유율 1위를 유지하고 있고(2017: 21.4%) 해외 사업 확장에 주가 (RMB) 29.23 힘입어 점유율 상승세가 지속될 것으로 예상되며, 2) SSD, 산업용 로봇, 사물인터넷솔루션 목표주가 (RMB) - (EZVIZ), 전장 사업의 2018년 순이익은 전년 대비 100% 이상 증가하며 매출기여도가 10% 시가총액 (RMB mn) 269,713 이상 상승할 것으로 예상되어 동사에 대해 긍정적 견해 추천일 18/6/11 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) -25.43 강봉리튬 (002460 SZ) ▶ 1) 현재 연간 리튬염 30만 톤 생산이 가능한 가운데, Li2CO3 1.5만톤, LiOH 2만톤 및 Li2CO3 1.75만톤(광저우) 등 신규 생산 시설이 2018년 완공될 예정이고, 2) 원재료 자급율 개선을 위해 투자의견 BUY 리튬 광물 확보를 위한 투자도 게을리 하지 않고 있어 긍정적. 동사는 연간 리튬정광 40만톤 주가 (RMB) 31.25 생산이 가능한(Li2CO3 환산 6.4만톤) Mt Marion 광산에 대해 43.1%의 지분을 확보하고 있음. 목표주가 (RMB) 85.20 또한, Li2O 195.2만톤에 달하는 리티아휘석 매장량을 자랑하는 Pilbara 광산에 대해서도 4.48% 시가총액 (RMB mn) 34,840 의 지분을 확보하고 있음. 3) 전고체 배터리 연구를 위해 Xu Xiaoxiong박사를 영입한 점을 추천일 18/1/15 감안하여 동사에 대해 긍정적인 견해 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) -50.25 19 Yuanta Research China 추천종목 – 홍콩 홍콩 증시 추천종목 북경자동차 (01958 HK) 투자의견 BUY 주가 (RMB) 6.13 ▶ 현재 진행되고 있는 브랜드의 구조조정에 힘입어 2018년 사상 최고 실적에 도전할 전망 목표주가 (RMB) 10.10 ▶ 2018/2019년 예상 P/E는 각각 5.9배/5.0배로 매력적인 수준 시가총액 (RMB mn) 49,134 추천일 18/5/24 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) -21.41 길리자동차 (00175 HK) 투자의견 BUY ▶ 유기적 성장과 Lynk & Co의 실적 기여도를 감안하여 동사의 장기 전망 긍정적으로 평가 주가 (RMB) 16.80 ▶ 2017~2020년 주당순이익 성장률은 31%로 예상되며 현재 2018/2019년 예상 P/E의 목표주가 (RMB) 38.50 10.3배/7.7 배 에 거래되고 있어, 밸류에이션이 적절한 것으로 판단 시가총액 (RMB mn) 150,832 추천일 17/8/21 추천일 이후 수익률 (%) -24.15 영달자동차서비스홀딩스 (03669 HK) 투자의견 BUY ▶ 중국 내 최대 BMW 딜러로 2018년부터 이어지는 BMW의 신차사이클의 주요 수혜주로 판단됨 주가 (RMB) 6.84 ▶ 대표 모델에 대한 잠재적 고객들의 문의 증가에 따라 동사 4S샵의 방문객 수가 최근 급증.
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