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Analisis Peta Politik Kandidat Calon Gubernur Dan Arah Koalisi Pada Kontestasi Pemilihan Gubernur Jawa Timur 2018

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Analisis Peta Politik Kandidat Calon Gubernur Dan Arah Koalisi Pada Kontestasi Pemilihan Gubernur Jawa Timur 2018 Jurnal Wacana Politik - ISSN 2502 - 9185 : E-ISSN: 2549-2969 Vol. 3, No. 1, Maret 2018: 29 - 39 ANALISIS PETA POLITIK KANDIDAT CALON GUBERNUR DAN ARAH KOALISI PADA KONTESTASI PEMILIHAN GUBERNUR JAWA TIMUR 2018 Yusuf Adam Hilman Program Studi Ilmu Pemerintahan, Universitas Muhammadiyah Ponorogo, Jawa Timur [email protected] ABSTRAK Pada pemilihan kepala daerah (Pilkada) Jawa Timur 2018, terdapat dua koalisi partai yang koheren dengan budaya lokal dan dukungan massa yang besar. Di satu pihak, Khofifah dan Emil Dardak diusung oleh: Partai Demokrat, Partai Nasional Demokrasi, Partai Persatuan Pembangunan, Partai Hanura, Partai Golongan Karya, Partai Amanat Nasonal, dan Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya. Di pihak lain, Syaifullah Yusuf dan Puti Guntur Soekarno diusung oleh Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa, Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan, dan Partai Keadilan Sejahtera. Kontestasi tersebut menarik untuk diamati mengingat Jawa Timur merupakan provinsi yang memiliki keunikan budaya yang beragam dan sangat menghargai budaya lokal. Terlebih lagi, kedua kandidat tersebut sama-sama memiliki peluang untuk memenangkan pemilu. Artikel ini mencoba untuk menggambarkan peluang kemenangan masing-masing kandidat melalui pemetaan yang terkait dengan kekuatan, kelemahan, peluang, dan ancaman. Kajian ini dibangun dengan metode kualitatif deskriptif untuk menguraikan pemetaan politik menjelang Pilkada. Koalisi-koalisi yang dibentuk memiliki kans kemenangan yang sama. Namun, hanya mereka yang mampu membaca dan memahami kondisi masyarakat, termasuk budayanya, dan karakteristik komunitas yang memiliki keunggulan pada Pilkada. Kata kunci: Demokrasi, kandidat, pemilihan kepala daerah, Jawa Timur. POLITICAL MAPPING ANALYSIS OF GOVERNOR CANDIDATE AND ITS COALITION PROJECTION IN THE 2018 EAST JAVA REGIONAL HEAD ELECTION ABSTRACT In the head of East Java province election in 2018, there are two party coalitions which coherent with local culture and also the mass base support. On the one side, Khofifah and Emil Dardak carried by: Partai Demokrat, Paratai Nasional Demokrasi, Partai Persatuan Pembangunan, Partai Hanura, Partai Golongan Karya, Partai Amanat Nasonal, dan Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya. On the other side, Syaifullah Yusuf and Puti Guntur Soekarno backed by: Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa, Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan, dan Partai Keadilan Sejahtera. The contestation is interesting to be scrutinized considering that East Java province has unique cultural diversity and favor the local values. Moreover, those pairs of candidates have the same potency to win the election. This article tries to scrutinize the opportunities of each candidate’s chance through mapping of related strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. This research uses descriptive qualitative methodin describing the political map heading the elections. The coalitions that is formed has the same opportunities. However, those who comprehend and read the internal conditions of the community, including its culture, and community characteristics, could be able to excel in the election. Key words: Democracy, candidate, regional head election, East Java. PENDAHULUAN Purnama (Ahok) yang dianggap melecehkan umat Islam dan kasus tersebut kemudian Praktik pemilihan umum (Pemilu) menjadi isu nasional (Herdiansah, et al., 2017). seringkali diwarnai dengan berbagai macam Fenomena Pilkada DKI Jakarta bisa dinamika serta konflik. Seperti penyelenggaraan menjadi pembelajaran bagi praktik penye- pemilihan kepala daerah di Provinsi DKI Jakarta, lenggaraan pemilu di Indonesia, terutama pergolakan terjadi dan memberikan dampak terkait dinamika serta konflik pelaksanaan pesta pada Pilkada di daerah lainnya. Berawal dari demokrasi yang sarat kepentingan dan sensitif. statement Gubernur Incumbent Basuki Tjahaya Pelajaran berharga dari Pilkada DKI Jakarta 30 Analisis Peta Politik Kandidat Calon Gubernur dan Arah Koalisi pada Kontestasi Pemilihan Gubernur Jawa Timur 2018 2017 juga terkait dengan penggunaan isu yang tertuang pada tabel di bawah. Namun SARA, keberpihakan institusi terhadap calon, demikian, data tersebut masih merupakan perang program, pencitraan kandidat, dan juga gambaran secara umumdan juga disarikan dari tindakan yang saling jegal hingga praktik politik opini yang berkembang di masyarakat. uang. Namun, semua cara tersebut sebenarnya Bursa Cagub dan Cawagub di atas merupakan realitas sering digunakan sebagai menampilkan 10 kandidat yang memiliki strategi untuk pemenangan calon di hampir kualifikasi dan berbagai pertimbangan.Tetapi, semua daerah. berbagai kemungkinan masih bisa terjadi Provinsi Jawa Timur merupakan salah satu mengingat peta politik di Jawa Timur sulit daerah yang akan melaksanakan Pilkada untuk diprediksi. Akan tetapi disini penulis melihat memilih Gubernur pada tahun 2018. Daerah ini realitas yang paling rasional. Berdasarkan tabel memiliki akar sejarah yang kuat terutama terkait dan rangking Cagub dan Cawagub tersebut, budaya dan jumlah massa fanatik. Pergolakan tentunya ada dua sosok yang bertengger di itu sudah mulai terlihat dan terekam dalam peringkat 1 dan 2, yakni Syaifullah Yusuf beberapa kegiatan yang melekat pada lembaga yang merupakan Wakil Gubernur Jatim, ataupun perseorangan. Fenomena yang Khofifah Indar Parawangsa yang pada waktu muncul ke permukaan memang belum terlihat itu menjabat Menteri Sosial RI. Jika di telisik jelas, namun demikian isu-isu politik mulai lebih dalam, dua kandidat tersebut memiliki meramaikan berbagai kegiatan di Jawa Timur. rekam jejak kompetisi panjang saat Pilgubdua Rumor-rumor yang berkembang telah banyak periode sebelumnya. Selain itu, kedua kandidat membawa pengaruh dan mengindikasikan merupakan mantan pengurus Gerakan Pemuda bahwa persaingan politik di daerah ini menarik Anshor dan juga Muslimat Nahdlatul Ulama perhatian secara nasional (Kpujatim.go.id, 3 (NU), dimana kedua organisasi tersebut Mei 2016). merupakan organisasi yang berada dibawah Agenda Pemilihan Gubernur Provinsi naungan NU yang memiliki basis masa Jawa Timur yang diselenggarakan pada tahun terbesar di Jawa Timur. 2018 disertai berbagai agenda politik, mulai Berkaca pada pengalaman sejarah dari dari bentuk promosi dan juga pencitraan dua kandidiat tersebut, merekalah yang diper- beberapa figur yang digadang akan maju. kirakan paling memungkinkan mengikuti Jauh sebelum penentuan calon, sudah banyak kontestasi Pilgub Jawa Timur 2018, namun yang memperlihatkan eksistensinya, sehingga demikian, peluang dan juga kesempatan harus dinamika politik mulai kentara ke permukaan. bisa di petakan mengingat faktor figur saja tidak Dalam bursa calon Gubernur (Cagub) dan calon cukup untuk maju dalam sebuah kompetisi. Wakil Gubernur (Cawagub) Jawa Timur terdapat Kondisi Jawa Timur memiliki peta kekuatan beberapa kandidat yang dianggap mempunyai partai politik yang berbeda di tiap daerahnya, kapabilitas dan peluang untuk diusung seperti provinsi ini sendiri sangat luas terdiri dari sekitar Tabel 1. Bursa Cagub dan Cawagub Jatim No Nama Pasangan Cagub Pasangan Cawagub 1 Syaifullah Yusuf 33,17 % 34,90 % 2 Khofifah Indar Parawangsa 28,31% 21,10 % 3 Tri Rismaharini 26,13 % 21,50 % 4 AzwarAnas 1,01 % 5,80 % 5 Agus Harimurti Y 3,69 % 5,50 % 6 Said Abdullah 3,85 % 4,20 % 7 Halim Iskandar 1,51 % 2,70 % 8 M. Misbakhun 0,50 % 2,20 % 9 Hasan Aminuddin 1,34 % 1,50 % 10 Rendra Kresna 0,50 % 0,70 % Sumber: The Intiactive Institute dalam Jawapos.com, 28 April 2017. Yusuf Adam Hilman 31 33 kabupaten dan Kota. Di samping itu, aspek persen dari kalangan kelas menengah perkotaan budaya dan corak kehidupan masyarakatnya dan massa pedesaan (Rasaili, 2016). yang unikmemerlukan pemetaan yang detail, Sementara konsepsi budaya politik agar bisa mendesain sebuah strategi kampanye parokialbiasa dilakukan orang yang apatis yang relevan dan juga efektif di akar rumput. terhadap kehidupan politik. Budaya politik Sinyal majunya kedua kandidat dengan subyek yang sangat tersegmentasi hanya poling teratasyang di realease oleh media membela kalangan sendiri yang akan bereaksi memberikan penegasan bahwa kedua calon ketika mereka memperoleh keuntungan atau inilah yang paling kuat basis pendukungnya berdampak kepada mereka. Budaya politik untuk bersaing merebutkan kursi gubernur. patisipan merujuk kepada masyarakat yang Kedua kandidat tersebut dalam Pilkada mempunyai kesedaran politik yang tinggiatau sebelumnya juga bertarung dengan sengit. yang disebut civil society (Hamil, 2011) Melihat fenomena tersebut, pemetaan terhadap Perilaku yang muncul pada masing- peluang untuk memenangkan kursi kepala masing individu dalam memilih mempunyai daerah Jawa Timur menarik dilakukan, sehingga pertimbangan-pertimbangan tertentu untuk terbentuk invetarisasi peta kekuatan politik menentukan sebuah keputusan. Di dalam diri dari kedua calon. Upaya ini juga diarahkan masing-masing pemilih terdapat dua orientasi, sebagai referensi terhadap tim pemenangan, yaitu: orientasi policy-problem solving dan supaya dapat membuat strategi pemenangan, ideology. Ada beberapa pendekatan untuk dari hasil analisis yang menjadi kekuatan dan melihat perilaku pemilih: pendekatan sosiologis, juga peluang serta kelemahan. Hal ini tentunya psikologis, rasional dan domain kognitif. terkait erat dengan budaya masyarakat, koalisi Kondisi tersebut pada akhirnya meng- partai pengusung calon, hasil pilkada yang telah arahkan penulis untuk melakukan kajian yang lalu, dan juga daerah persebaran suara yang lebih mendalam dari berbagai sumber, guna ada di Jawa Timur. Disini kemudian akan ada menjawab persoalan mengenai Pilkada di Jawa gambaran secara detail
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