RUSSIAN GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY

FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY, M.V. LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY

INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

No. 01 [03] 2010 GEOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY

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2 Otfried ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Pacific Petr Ya.Baklanov ofdeserts, Institute Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Academy ofSciences, Agadzhan G. of Sciences, ofGeography, Institute Russia BranchofRussianAcademySiberian Alexander N.Antipov Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Vladimir S. Tikunov University, Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State Moscow Nikolay S.Kasimov of Geography, Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Institute Vladimir A.Kolosov of Geography, Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Institute Boris I.Kochurov of Geography, Japan ofEducation,Institute University Hokkaido Yukio Himiyama Association of Tunisian Geographers, Tunisia Adnane Hayder Russia Rosoboronexport, Vladimir V.Gutenev Chinese Academy ofSciences, China Guo Hua Tong of EcologyandEvolution, Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Institute Petr D. Gunin of Geography, Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Institute Olga V.Gritsay Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Kirill N.D’yakonov Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Sergey A.Dobrolubov of Geography andGeoecology, Russia Sankt-Petersburg State University, Faculty Vasily V.Dmitriev ofPlymouth,University UK Brian Chalkley furgeographie,Insitut Germany Ludwig Universitat Munchen, Maximilians EDITORS-IN-CHIEF: EDITORIAL BOARD

Baume B abaev (Secretary-General) Institute ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences Vladimir M.Kotlyakov Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland Sergey S.Zilitinkevich of Environmental Geosciences, Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Institute Alexey S. Viktorov Geographic Institute, Chile Military Vargas RodrigoBarriga et SciencesHumaines” France Université duHavre –UFR “Lettres Pierre Thorez of Geography, Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Institute A. Arkady Tishkov of Geography, Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Institute Olga N.Solomina ofGeographyInstitute Ukraine Academy ofSciences,National Ukrainean Leonid G.Rudenko and Regional Studies, Poland University Warsaw, Faculty ofGeography Richling Andrzej diGeografia, Italy Instituto Universita degliStudidiRoma “La Sapienza”, Cosimo ofGeography,Institute Mexico National Autonomous ofMexico, University Jose Palacio-Prieto Faculty ofGeography, Russia. M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Nikolay S.Mironenko Azerbaijan State University,Baku Faculty ofGeography, Mamedov Ramiz Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Svetlana M.Malkhazova of Behavioral Sciences, USA ofColoradoUniversity atBoulder, Institute John O’Loughlin The Netherlands Sciences, of AppliedEarth of University Delft Technology Department Salomon Czech Republic University, FacultyMasaryk ofScience, Milan KoneMilan

Palagiano

Kroonenberg ný Bruxelles, Belgique Université Libre de Christian Vandermotten 005.08.2010 16:19:12 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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9. Alexander N.Krayukhin, VladimirS.Tikunov 4. OlegYu. Golubchikov, NicholasA.Phelps, AllaG.Makhrova Kononova3. NinaK. 2. Giovanni Grandoni, MariaCristinaMammarella,MaurizioFavaron 1. GeorgyI.Rychagov, VladislavN.Korotaev, Aleksey V. Chernov GEOGRAPHY 8. Sergey A.Dobrolyubov 7. Tatyana P. Kolchugina SUSTAINABILITY 6. Fivos Papadimitriou 5. Nikolay M.Dronin,JohnFrancis ENVIRONMENT NEWS AND REVIEWS 3 CONTENT “STRONG”AND “WEAK”GLOBALENVIRONMENTAL PHENOMENAS ...... 56 . . . THE NATIONALTHE ATLASRUSSIA OF ...... OF . . .CITY” .“EDGEMOSCOW . METROPOLITANINOF . THECONTEXT ...... 44 . . . MACHINEPOST-SUBURBIA: AND GROWTH THE EMERGENCE CIRCULATIONACCORDING . CLASSIFICATION TODZERDZEEVSKII’S ...... 25 . . . LONG-TERM FLUCTUATIONS OF HEMISPHERE NORTHERN ATMOSPHERIC ITALYMILAN, . .OVER ...... CLIMATOLOGY OF THE BRUNT-VÄISÄLÄ FREQUENCY FORMATIONHISTORYOF PALAEODELTAS LOWEROF VOLGA DELTAS ...... 4 ...... GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY SOCIETY GEOGRAPHICAL ...... THE ON REPORT THE SPECIAL CONGRESS OF THE RUSSIAN AND TECHNOLOGY ...... PROMOTING SUSTAINABILITY THROUGH LAND-USE PLANNING EVALUATIONANSYSTEMS:COMPLEX ...... MATHEMATICAL . . . . MODELLING OF SPATIAL-ECOLOGICAL ...... 16 ...... 81 ...... 91 ...... 93 . . . 67 . 005.08.2010 16:19:13 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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4 generations differ inabsolute andrelative in thisstudy. ofdifferent age Surfaces distinguished floodplain anddeltasurfaces correlate withfour generationsofancient floodplaintopography,Akhtuba that Novocaspian agesinthemodern Volga- oftheLateandalternations Khvalinian of three transgressive-regressive phase Volga valley. There are pronounced traces of alluvialenvironments intheLower phases associated withthedominance transgressions alternated withregressive and Novocaspian transgressions. The correspondent to theLate Khvalinian phases withinthe Volga-Akhtuba valley there have (estuarine) beensixmarine level oscillations. Onlyover thelast16ka, oftheCaspianSeaa complexhistory The associated successionreflects the entire Late Pleistocene andHolocene. wereAstrakhan, changing throughout the present-day citiesof Volgograd and intheareaingressional between estuary andalluvialenvironmentsmarine inthe alongstream. 700 km The estuarine- the apexof Volga haswandered Delta lowstandat–100m,Holocene Mangyshlak highstandof+50mandtheEarlyKhvalinian Caspian Sealevel theEarly rise. Between location controlled bytheamplitude ofthe withtheapexdeep ingressional estuary transformedperiodically into alongand lower parts Its the last600–700ka. during within thepresent-day Lower Volga region The palaeo-Volga valleyexisted River 1 2 Georgy I.Rychagov * Corresponding author Tel. [email protected] +74992450310,fax+72480162,e-mail: Tel. [email protected] +74959395469,fax9395044,e-mail: 119991, Moscow, Russia ABSTRACT OF LOWER VOLGA DELTAS HISTORY OF FORMATION PALAEODELTAS Moscow State Pedagogical University, M.Pirogovskaya, 119991,Moscow, Russia Faculty ofGeography, Moscow State University, Gory, Leninskie 1 , Vladislav N.Korotaev types. generations oflocalfloodplainsurface subdividedinto differentcan befurther branch;main channelandtheAkhtuba ii) are:types i) age. distinguishedsurface These clearly differ and inheight,location,morphology withinthevalleybottom that types surface theformationdetermined main of two channel system oftheLower Volga River Long existence of acomplexmulti-thread landforms.characteristic and Baer’s widespread moundsare very Late plainareas, Khvalinian aeolianlandforms offlat-bottomednetwork hollows. Within the withdendritic a monotonous even surface accumulationplainhave marine Khvalinian areas of the Early The adjacentinterfluvial box-like cross-sectionshape.a symmetric floodplain, lackofprominent and terraces wide byawell-developed characterized is largely It occupiedbyreservoirs. parts differentis geomorphically from itsupstream valley (downstream from the Volgograd city) The ofthe Volga-Akhtuba part Volga River delta palaeodelta, ancientfloodplain,bay-head topography, andpresent-day vegetation. heights, offloodplain morphological types INTRODUCTION KEYWORDS: 1 *, Aleksey V. Chernov modern floodplainsoftheVolga River ancient (central) floodplain Volga-Akhtuba valley, 2 005.08.2010 16:19:13 they 5 and . 0 8 . 2 0

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Bolshoy Volgograd bendofthe fault. Asharp with thatofthe Volgograd flexure andthe coincides direction southwestern strike the fracturezone.Volzhsko-Ergeninskiy Its and the Kamyshin Volgograd citiesfollows the Quaternary. between The valleysection developed atleastsincethebeginning of negative inherited River tectonic structures valleyoftheLowerThe modern Volga and eroded ontop. strongly deformed onlimbsofsaltdomes rock whichisPleistocene sedimentary level consistsoftheUpperPermian and open onthesurface. The oversalt structural orElton, somestocks aresuch asInder Neogenic rocks. thebrockensaltdomes, In they are byMesozoic overlain oreven stocks insuchdomesreaches 6to 8km; Zaymichenskiy, etc. The heightofsalt or gigantic domes–Enotaevskiy, Soleno- salt bodiesthatform extensivesaltridges Lower Volga region haslarge underground exceeding 4km. strata hadathickness The (Lower Permian) whichinitial evaporites stage massesoftheKungurian enormous formed asaresult ofplasticdislocations mantle. depression sedimentary They were elements ofthePricaspian tectonic Salt domesare themainstructural dislocations.by fracture relatively large platform structuresbroken rocks oftheLate Palaeozoic thatform composed oftheterrigenous-carbonate levels. level isThe undersaltstructural structural undersalt, oversalt, andsuperficial the Russianplatform mantlethatconsistsof rocks of and are bysedimentary overlain Archaean-Proterozoic type metamorphic of thedepression mainlybelongto the basement rocks thatcomposecrystalline separated blocksatdifferent elevations. The isfracturedinto It depths exceeding 15km. basement ofthedepression isfound at geophysical data,pre-Palaeozoic crystalline According to part. anticline initsfarsouthern with afolding structureoftheKarpinskiy and deepestwithintheRussianplatform Pricaspian tectonic depression –thelargest The Lower Volga region islocated withinthe 5 heterogeneous layer of Quaternary deposits heterogeneous layer ofQuaternary mantleistopped witha The sedimentary and microfossil communities. byspecificmacro- characterized distinctively andApsheronianAkchagylian depositsare sand or, withbasalclays. marls lessoften, The sediments (clays andsilts)withlayers of deposits are dominated byrelatively fine and Apsheronian transgressions. These theAkchagylian sedimentsduring as marine ofthesedepositswere Most formed thick. depositsfew hundred meters Quaternary of unconsolidated UpperPliocene – mantleismainlycomposed sedimentary of thePaleozoic-CenozoicThe upperpart wide(Fig.12–15 km 1). with localrelatively narrower upto sections downstream itincreases tofarther 30–35km Volgograd whereas does notexceed 3–8km, For example, thevalleywidthupstream of basement. Pricaspian depression crystalline by tectonic anddislocationsofthe structures arechannel morphology largely controlled formation, structure, geomorphic and 1962]. Thus, theLower Volga valley River [Lower Volga River..., 2002;Nikolaev, andmorphometry channel morphology ofthe in localcharacteristics Volga River reflectedsections. Suchinfluenceisoften direction andformation ofnarrowed valley valleyfromRiver itsgeneralsouthern cause localdeviationsoftheLower Volga structures These andothersimilaractive etc. branchinlet,Kamennoyarskiy, Akhtuba Volgograd atthe city, Verkhne-Akhtubinskiy the nearby such assaltdomesBeketovskiy structures withhalokinesis superimposed until theHolocene. Tectonic depressions are deep fracturezone whichremained active Both ofthesestructures coincidewith the depression. southward –theNizhne-Volzhskiy (down to theCherniy Yar settlement),farther depression itfollows theArzgirskiy part, linear depression thenorthern structures. In valleyisformedRiver large alongthetwo The oftheLowerVolga-Akhtuba part Volga direction. strike fault ofthesoutheastern 90° –isassociated withtheAkhtubinskiy the valley nearby Volgograd –to almost city 005.08.2010 16:19:13 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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6 GEOGRAPHY

6 1 and Holocene)canbedistinguished system (Lower, UpperPleistocene, Middle, layer, allmajorsubdivisionsoftheQuaternary exceeding 100minthickness. Within this formation witha iscloselyconnected ofthe The history Volga palaeodeltas River directions. both lateral andvertical numerous different faciesthatalternate in lakes limans, kultuks (lagoons (deltaic),lacustrine-marine marine presence ofcomplexorigin sediments:fluvial- thewidespreadSuch conditionsdetermine zoneinteraction andthe Volga mouth. River of continuousmigration ofthesea-land time, thestudyarea hasbeen aterritory present. For ofgeological alongperiod are alsodeposits andsomeothertypes aquatic environments, thoughalluvialfan most widespread withinsedimentsofnon- lagoon deposits. Aeolian deposits are the aquatic sediments, i.e., fluvial, lacustrine, represented byheterogeneous non-marine is ofthegeological section Significant part andNovocaspianKhvalinian, transgressions. Lower Lower andUpperKhazarian, andUpper sedimentsformed theBaku, marine during depositsare dominated by Quaternary scale. stratigraphicrespond Pleistocene to oftheInternational Middle sions. Lower Pleistocene oftheRussianscalecor- andMiddle In thispaper, In authorsusetheRussianstratigraphic subdivi- , ilmens ). Such deposits often consistof ). Suchdepositsoften ), and fluvial-lacustrine (oxbow), andfluvial-lacustrine Figure.the Volga-Akhtuba1. Width Variabilityof Valley. 1 , . ( Caspian SeaatleastsincetheLate Neogene Volga hasbeendraininginto River the with ahighdegree ofconfidencethatthe et. al., 2000,2004]allowed usto conclude data [Goretsky, 1966;Rychagov, 1977;Svitoch present time. Reviewofpreviously published remained prominenthave upto partly the mouth andspecificlandform complexes that This system hadacontinuouslymigrating Volga region theentire during Late Cenozoic. to thepresent-day valleyexisted intheLower suggests thatalarge riversystem comparable development ofthe Volga valley River The aforementioned ofthe history oscillation, andtectonic activity. flowvariations,by river theCaspianSealevel controlled processlong-term wasprimarily floodplain formation. This complexand valley, and, inparticular, the Volga-Akhtuba oftheLowergeneral history Volga River suggests thatinthepast, palaeo-Volga valleys.than thewidthsofmodern This fact widths are usuallyfour to five timeslarger resemble valleys. themodern However, their Planforms ofthesepalaeovalleysgenerally the eastfrom themodern Volga valley. The ( Krivichi Venedy ( N ap ). The buried Volga palaeovalleys ofthe Q Q kr vd ) ageshave beendiscovered to ), Solikamsk ( ), Solikamsk Q sk ) and Early ) andEarly 005.08.2010 16:19:13 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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dated to the( bodies located atdepthsof40–25mand represented depositional bywedge-shaped [1990]. E.G. Maev These paleodeltasare geological byM.Yu. structure Lohin and were discovered intheCaspianSea shelf regressions. Traces ofsuchpalaeodeltas ofpalaeodeltasdueto sea preservation Late Pleistocene andHoloceneisapoor Volga the mouthdynamicsduring River featuresOne ofcharacteristic ofthe following thesealevel oscillations. and downstream thepalaeo-Volga valleys into migration accounttheiractive up- takes task becomeseven more difficultwhenone ofpalaeodeltalocations.determination The adetailed doesnotpermit sections, of oldalluvialsuccessionsingeological stated above, arelatively poorpreservation compared to thepresent. As itwasalready dischargesRiver were significantly greater infilled withthegravels, pebbles, sandsand from themodern Volga valley. River ispartially It Cretaceous-Palaeogene bedrock to theeast palaeovalley incised300–500minto the programcoring discovered alarge buried are Pliocene. dated to the Middle Deep Pricaspianvalley found region intheNorth First geological tracesofthepalaeo-Volga of themodern Volga delta. River transgression, to almosttheseaward edge maximum stageoftheLate Khvalinian settlement correlated with the Nikolskoe valley from thecoastlineremnants near both sidesofthemodern Volga-Akhtuba The Baer’s moundslandscapeistracedon of theBaer’s moundslandscapeformation. landforms thatform –sandyridges thebasis formation oftheabovementioned specific with theLate Seaexistence Khvalinian – event geomorphic correlated important far. This may betheconsequenceofan regression, have notbeendiscovered so those thatcorrelated withtheMangyshlak ages. Palaeodeltas oflater ages, for example RIVER PALAEODELTAS PLEISTOCENE HISTORY OF THE VOLGA 7 Q at ) andEnotaevsk( Q en ) been submerged andhadlandscapes The palaeo-Volga mouthmay have located upstream city. from theAstrakhan Venedy andCherniy Yar valleydeltaswere Atel age sands. Thus, itispossiblethatthe are noancientalluvialdepositsolderthan ofthemodern section Volga deltathere On theotherhand, withinthegeological these riversystems have beenfound there. almost notracesofdeltascorresponding to thePleistocene.valley during However, the existence ofthelarge palaeo-Volga River channelalluvialfacies,the active proving The depositsare dominated of bymaterial rivicola, Sph.corneum, Planorbis planorbisetc. pictorum, Pisidium amnicum,Sphaerium duboisianus, V.viviparus, Uniotumidus, U. polymorpha, Valvata piscinalis, Viviparus Lithoglyphus caspicus, L.naticoides, Dreissena contain shellsofthefreshwater mollusks offreshwaterby avariety sediments that age deposits. These depositsare represented succession oftheCherniy Yar sandsandAtel Singil, Lower successions, and Krivichi abovementioned depositsofthe Venedy, [Goretsky, 1966]allowed to distinguish the ofthemodern sections Volga valley River [3]andgeologicalthe Hydroproject Institute Volga outby region. carried coring Deep in thePleistocene depositsoftheLower palaeo-Volga valleyincisionshasbeenfound Numerous evidenceofexistence ofafew Basin. Balakhany and flowed into aclosedwater body–the deltawithintheCaspiandepression modern delta waslocated farto thesouthfrom the agepalaeo-Volga (Kinel) that theAkchagylian hasbeensuggested now studiedindetails. It A.N. Mazarovich in1936andhave beenby were by firstdistinguishedanddescribed succession, deposits identifiedastheKinel ofthisregionnetwork andassociated Middle Volga region. The ancientdrainage deposits found valleysofthe insimilarburied succession succession depositswiththeKinel south. Allresearchers correlate theKushum andfarther Lake upland to theBaskunchak traced from western slopesoftheObshiySyrt successionandis clays oftheKushumskaya 005.08.2010 16:19:16 5

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8 a large river channel during the middle-end a large themiddle-end riverchannelduring suggest thatthesedepositswere formed in fauna remnants, andlithological properties Cherniy Yar successionsands, characteristic The stratigraphic positionandaltitudeofthe Pleistocene. oftheMiddle the middlepart to ageisusuallyattributed palaeofauna. Its remnants oflarge mammalsoftheKhazarian channel sands, containingnumerous bone is mainlyrepresented cross-stratified byactive LithologicallyZaimishe geological it section. intheCherniy described Yar –Nizhnee of theCherniy Yar successionhasbeen orSingil deposits. Khazarian The stratotype the erosional oftheLower unconformity Yar successionare widespread. They overlie polyfacial alluvialdepositsoftheCherniy settlement, andNikolskoe the Raigorod the In Volga between valleysection River Caspian. the North marginCaspian Seawasatthesouthern of regression ofthe the deeppre-Khazarian agedeltaduring the locationofKrivichi day Ergeni upland. However, mostlikely modern Volga valley, River nearthe present- that timewaslocated to thewest from the [1966],thepalaeodeltaof by G.I.Goretskiy in theLower Volga region. As suggested agedrainagenetwork oftheKrivichi pattern is noreliable information onthespatial thatperiod. of theCaspianSeaduring There deposits, proving adeepeningregression age alluvialsandsoverlay theSingil age flowing water bodies. Krivichi The Early tranquil waters ofvaststagnant orsemi- under conditionsofslowsedimentationin the formation ofthesedepositsoccurred polymorpha etc. Planorbis planorbis, Theodoxus sp., Dreissena amnicum, Sphaeriumrivicola, Valvata piscinalis, cf. pictorum,Viviparusduboisianus, Pisidium patens Salvinia ( contain abundantremnants ofvegetation valley and Western Pricaspian region. They widespread withintheLower Volga River ages. Khazarian) The Singil agedepositsare (pre-Early Singil Krivichi (past-Baku) andEarly Dnieper-Bug the andDunay limanesduring morphologically similarto themodern Selaginella selaginoides, Azolla interglacialica, selaginoides, Azolla Selaginella ) andfreshwater mollusks(Unio ). These datasuggestthat mainly from suspendedsediment delivered deposited initsrelatively stagnant waters, plicatus)were caspia,Hypanis (Monodacna fauna type molluscs oftheslightlybrackish The so-called “chocolate” clays withrare exceeded 40m.The depthoftheestuary with relatively coldslightlysalinewaters. wasfilled It Luka. as to theSamarskaya approximately asfarupstream 500km, stretched toby anarrow and longestuary Volga wasrepresented valleyofthatperiod city.Kamyshin The submerged palaeo- fromPricaspian the lowlandto thenorth ofthethe seacovered theentire territory transgression Khvalinian Early maximum, CaspianSea.Later,Southern the during and theNorthern between boundary of thesameagediscovered alongthe Volga valleyisproven bydeltadeposits The existence oftheAtel agepalaeo- at thattime. flowing water bodieswithinpalaeovalleys which proves thepresence ofclearwarm Theodoxus sp., polymorpha,etc. Dreissena Bithynia tentaculata,Planorbis planorbis, Valvata piscinalis, Lithoglyphuscf. naticoides, shells ( findings, includingfreshwater mollusk bydiversecharacterized palaeontological respectively). These depositsare andUrundzhik, Sea (theLate Khazarian “warm” transgressions oftheCaspian correlated withrelatively low-amplitude deposits ofthepalaeo-Volga are River and Singil successionalluvialanddeltaic Didacna surachanica). The Cherniy Yar Sealevel (depositswithLate Khazarian into deltaic depositscorrelated withthe Cherniy Yar successionchangelaterally settlement, where alluvialsandsofthe neartheSeroglazovkageological section byanalysisofthestatement issupported Pleistocene.region theMiddle during This deltaexistedRiver intheLower Volga Another generationofthepalaeo-Volga higher. of themodern Volga River, orwasslightly mean low-water level coincidedwiththat Pleistocene.of theMiddle The palaeoriver Unio pictorum,Viviparusduboisianus, 005.08.2010 16:19:17 5 . 0 8 . ), 2 0 1 0

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and Davan depressions thatformed atthe valley.only itspre-Khvalinian The Sarpinskaya sea, thepalaeo-Volga not inherited River 14–16 mand4–6m.Following theretreating ataltitudesof20–22m, the stadialterraces thatresultedfluctuations intheformation of by high-amplitudesea-levelmarked Searegression Khvalinian The Early was to thenorth. bedload sedimentwasdeposited farther representedmaterial bythepalaeo-Volga by theriver. isbelieved thatthecoarser It 9 Volga 2–Marineaccumulative Delta.1–Highlandaccumulative-denudation, planeofEarlyKhvalinian, Akhtuba Valley. A– MaximumstageoftheLate Khvalinian transgression (0mBSL),B–Maximumstage Novocaspian (9–5ka,–9–(–18)mBSL),7–Floo of theMangyshlak regression (-100mBSL(i.e, BalticSystem Level). C–Recent stageofformation the BSL), 8–Recent Volga Deltaandmarine islands(less1ka,–25–(–27)mBSL),9– Volga Channelofthe 5 –Floodplane ofLate Khvalinian Makhachkala (17–12 ka,–3–(–9)mBSL),6–Floodplane Turali of 3 –Marineaccumulative planeofLate Khvalinian, 4–Marineaccumulative planeofNovocaspian, Figure 2. oftheLowerThe history Volga palaeodeltasformation andtheirpositioninthe Volga- Late Khvalinian, 10 –water 11–river surface, systems, river 12–relict systems, 13–isobaths. dplane Ulluchay ofNovocaspian (4–1,5ka,–18–(–23)m Sea bottom. Erosional ofthe dissection fromin cores thepresent-day taken Caspian ofthe boundary “chocolate” clays observed evident from anduneven thesharp upper by theCaspianSea. oferosionThe period is the southwhichare, atpresent, occupied Pricaspian lowlandandinthelandareas to tookerosion. placebothwithinthe Incision depositswereKhvalinian to intensive subject theEnotaevskregression,During theLower topography. same timeare stillprominent inthemodern 005.08.2010 16:19:17 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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1 0 Sarpinskaya depression wasonceagainfilled Sarpinskaya the LateSeatransgression. Khvalinian The substantial relief transformations during plainexperienced marine Khvalinian The Early 1977; Varushchenko et.Al., 1987]. [Kroonenberg et.Al., 1997,2008;Rychagov, the riversflowinginto theLateSea Khvalinian the zones of ofpalaeodeltasandestuaries Moreover, theyare mostlyassociated with to the Latetransgression.subject Khvalinian that was are located withintheterritory isundisputable:allsuchlandformsfact distinguished bydifferent authors, one in theBaer’s areas moundsdistribution topography. discrepancies Despitecertain for Baer’s themodern moundslandscape landforms (i.e., formed sandyridges) abasis estuaries. We suggestthat thesedepositional marginal seas, andinriverdeltas with significant tidalamplitude, inshallow bay andgulfoutlets, alongopencoastlines commonlydevelopSuch sandyridges at of erosion deposits. oftheoldermarine of sedimentdelivered asaresult byrivers of suchlandforms wasasubstantialamount for thedevelopment condition necessary shelves ofmany present-day seas. Another were widespread similarto sandridges on of theLateSea. Khvalinian These landforms landforms inthecoastalzone underwater favoured theformation ofaccumulative directed hydraulic andsurge currents coastal zone. ofoppositelyThe interaction specific hydrodynamic conditionsinthe planform oftheseacoastlinedetermined and day Kamyshin Volgograd cities. Sucha waslocated thepresent- between part valley, theLate Seabay Khvalinian apical Uil, Sagiz, the andEmbarivers. In Volga River Uzen, the mouthsofBolshoyandMaliy flowed into theestuary. Bays alsoexisted in depression mouth (Fig. 2-A). The UralRiver SeaattheSarpa-Davan the palaeo-Caspian maximum, there wasafunnel-shapedbay in theLate transgression Khvalinian During Sea. coastline configurationoftheLate Khvalinian regression thecomplicated determined theEnotaevsk plainduring Khvalyn Early [Goretsky, 1966]. Within ancientdeltas a crest-like ageclays fold oftheMaikop specifically, theanticlinerepresented by the bifurcation ofthe Volga channel, River The tectonic hasalsodetermined structure tectonic control over thevalley’s direction. anticline)isanexampleof Akhtubinskaya the Volgogradskiy faultandthe Verkhne- with valley(closelyconnected Akhtuba The geological ofthe structure Volga- branch.later developed into theAkhtuba faultstructure, followed theAkhtubinskiy main channel, branchthat whiletheleft branch gave to themodern rise Volga River delta. The larger right andmostactive infill(Volgograd) the Lateestuary Khvalinian mainbranchesof two inherited most likely branch)havemain channelandAkhtuba quasi-independent watercourses (the Volga oftime.also took placeatthatperiod Two Volga channeldichotomy River formation of thevalley. isprobable thattheLower It sideand insomeotherlocationsontheleft settlement,near theLeninsk city, Sokrutovka side ofthe right Volga-Akhtuba, aswell as settlementson the andStaritsa Vyazovka nearthe its fragments canbeobserved is notprominent topography, inthemodern valley(Fig.River 2-B).Althoughthisterrace that currently existsinthemodern Volga terrace, (Sarpa of thefirstterrace 14–17ka) regression corresponds to theformation The beginning oftheLateSea Khvalinian –30–(–32) m(Samurphase). phase), –16–(–18)m(Dagestanand (Kuma phase),–11–(–12)m(Sartassk can betracedonaltitudesof–5–(–6)m in formation ofcoastlineswhichremnants transgressive phases. These events resulted retreat wasinterrupted byrelatively limited period, theLate Sea Khvalinian Khvalinian relief.in themodern to theEarly Similarly incised deltas. The latter are stillprominent valleywere byasystem dissected of Akhtuba areas to theeastfrom thepresent-day Volga- depressionVolga and valleyandSarpinskaya flow.with ariver the between The interfluves OF THE VOLGA-AKHTUBA VALLEY HOLOCENE BAY-HEAD PALAEODELTAS 005.08.2010 16:19:23 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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main channel and the Akhtuba branch; main channelandtheAkhtuba floodplainsofthe i)themodern Volgaof: not uniform. As discussedabove, itconsists ofthe structure Volga-Akhtuba floodplainis geomorphologicaltransgression. The and HolocenesincetheLate Khvalinian theLatewhich took Pleistocene placeduring infillbythe estuary Volga sediment, River of theAstrakhan-Volgograd ingressional data allowed usto thelaststages reconstruct images, andtopographic andgeological andsatelliteAn analysisofavailable aerial branch. Akhtuba both the Volga mainchannelandthe River of was formed activity bygeomorphic channel.River The Volga-Akhtuba floodplain anastomosing oftheLower pattern Volga and eventually gave to themodern rise infillof theAstrakhan-Volgograd estuary relatively continuousalong many stages and more separated. This process remained retreating sea,thebranchesbecamemore migrated downstream following the channels. However, asdeltasgradually interconnected bynumerous secondary mainbranchesremainedtwo closely andyounger), these(Akhtubinskaya 1 1 Figure 3. The diagram ofchangesintheCaspian Sea-level duringLate Pleistocene –Holocene andthe main periodofformation ofthe Volga-Akhtuba G.I.Ruchagov, floodplain[after 1977] alluvial environments placeinthe hastaken and oftheestuarine-marine Alternation Lower Volga River..., 2002;Nikolaev, 1962]. and Chernov, 2000,2001;LiC.X.et.al., 2004; of the Volga 1951;Korotaev, Delta, River systems ofRussiaandChina..., 2007;Geology 1990;Estuarine-deltaic [Bolikhovskaya, ofancientfloodplaingenerations surfaces are commonlyabout1mhigher than floodplain leveesoverlain ofthemodern water level. However, itmustbenoted that similar relative elevationsover themeanlow- have andancientfloodplain surfaces modern andmorphology.by theirstructure Both area. These elementscanbedistinguished 80% oftheentire Volga-Akhtuba floodplain branchoccupymore than and theAkhtuba located the between Volga mainchannel Different generationsoftheancientfloodplain topography. channel)primary (the Akhtuba Volga mainchannel)orsegmented-ridge bydepression-islandis characterized (the along the Volga channels. It andAkhtuba (Fig. floodplainisstretched 2-C). The modern consecutively downstream alternating offourby sections different generations and ii)theancientfloodplainrepresented 005.08.2010 16:19:24 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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1 2 floodplain andthebifurcation ofthemain ofthe section Zamyanskiy Volga-Akhtuba City.the Astrakhan The formation ofthe of the Volga deltadownstream River from regression incisionsatthepresent location the Baer’s mounds andtheMangyshlak deposits filledthedepressions between same time, the Novocaspian transgression of theNovocaspian transgression. Atthe the during City the Astrakhan Turali stage from thepresent-day locationofnorth existed inthe Volga valleyto River the Turali stage).Arelatively bay smallmarine themaximumphase(theBSL during reachedtransgression –20m andfurther the firstphaseoftheNovocaspianduring Caspian Sealevel grew to –25mBSL the Baer’s moundsbywave action. The regression andsimultaneouserosion of incisions formed theMangyshlak during depositional infillofdeep Volga River transgression wasaccompaniedwiththe The beginning oftheNovocaspian branches. discharge was passingthrough thesetwo The entire post-Khvalinian time, Volga River location ofthepresent-day Volga delta. River deposits forming mainchannelsatthe two eroded transgression theKhvalinian partly the Volga channelinciseddeeplyand River CaspianSea.As ofthemodern aresult, parts andcentral thenorthern between boundary The Volga deltawasthenlocated River atthe the sealevel retreated to about–100mBSL. followed regression bytheMangyshlak when transgressionThe Late Khvalinian was Lowervalley. Volga dominance ofalluvialenvironments inthe regressive phasesassociated withthe ages (Fig. 3). These events alternated with andNovocaspianof theLate Khvalinian valley correspondent to transgressive phases phaseswithinthe (estuarine) Volga-Akhtuba there wereover thelast16ka, sixmarine of theCaspianSealevel oscillations. Only This successionreflected acomplexhistory the entire Late Pleistocene andHolocene. day Volgograd citiesduring andAstrakhan thepresent- between ingressional estuary continuing development of the estuary continuing development oftheestuary transgression bythe wascharacterized Thus, thesecondstageofNovocaspian the deltaicplaininto large lowlandislands. existingincisionsandseparatedinherited oftime. thatperiod during part They have already existed inthedeltaupper – andAkhtuba and Buzan,Bushma,Kigach, valley–the Akhtuba Volga mainchannel, main branchesofthepresent-day Volga- incision ofthedeltaicwatercourses. The amplitude anddidnotcausesignificant Novocaspian transgression waslimited in regression peaksofthe separatingthetwo can thereforeIt beconcluded thatthe ofthedelta. theseparts between observed areof sedimentationdiscontinuity deposits. However, noprominent traces by shallowseawaters upto 15mdeep) ofadeltasubmerged avandelta (distalpart are substantiallydifferent from thoseofthe ofthe characteristics conditions. Lithological stable sedimentary stagnant water bodieswithcalmand mainly infresh (orlessfrequently brackish) indicate thatsedimentationoccurred Valvata piscinalis, polymorpha Dreissena remnants ( numerous findingsoffreshwater mollusks sedimentcompositionandfine silt-clay modern Volga delta.Predominantly River are widespread over theentire area ofthe facies took place. Currently, thesedeposits sediment andfluvial-lacustrine) marine deposition ofthe rose upto –23–(–24)mBSLandActive BP)whentheCaspianSealevel (3,0–2,5 ka phase oftheNovocaspian transgression evolution wasassociated withtheUlluchay deltaformationRiver anditsgeomorphic The secondstageofthemodern Volga regression. incisions formed theMangyshlak during branchreturned into the and theAkhtuba that period, boththe Volga mainchannel but limited inamplituderegression. During was followed byarelatively prolonged stage oftheNovocaspian transgression branch took placeatthattime. The Turali channel atthepresent outletoftheBuzan Planorbis planorbis, Uniotumidus, kultuk-ilmen kultuk-ilmen (lacustrine- deposits 005.08.2010 16:19:26 5 . 0 8 . 2 ) 0 1 0

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Caspian Sealevel rise. location controlled bytheamplitudeof withtheapex deep ingressional estuary transformingperiodically into alongand were lower parts Its the last600–700ka. the present-day Lower Volga region during palaeo-Volga valleyexisted River within There issufficientevidencethatthe ofthedelta. distal parts sedimentation regimes are limited to only andavandelta andfluvial-lacustrine) marine of thedelta,while sedimentation regime nowprevails over most transformations. As aresult, thealluvial-deltaic played adominantrole inthedeltamorphology were controlled byhydrological regime which (floodplain, channel, naturallevees, etc.). They channel-floodplain landform complexes offluvialprocessescontribution thatformed bygreater development thathasbeenmarked oftheregional geomorphological history evolution generallycoincides withthe stageofthe The modern Volga delta River level hasnever above risen –25mBS. regression theDerbent After theCaspianSea banklocation). branch andtheBelinskiy Zelenginskiy Bay (attheancient Bushma ancient Buzanbranchlocation)andthe Bay (atthe astheSineeMortso century deltatopographyRiver 20th untiltheearly regression remained prominent inthe Volga incisions formed theMangyshlak during occupyingthemain large palaeo-branches of itsbranches. tracesoftwo Nevertheless, changes ofthedeltaplanform andpatterns causedanumberof sea level fluctuations mounds development. Later on,insignificant delta formation beyond thearea ofBaer’s specifically, theonsetofadvancing new stageofthe Volga deltaevolution, River level fell to –32mBSL. This event triggered a regressionthe Derbent whentheCaspianSea Novocaspian transgression wasfollowed by The Ulluchay stageofthemultiphase of advancingdelta. infilling deltaandtheonsetofformation CONCLUSION 1 3 kultuk-ilmen (lacustrine- Research (Grantno. 07-05-00525). the RussianFoundation for Fundamental byThis research wassupported work past CaspianSearegressions. the during multiplereworking underwent by theHolocenealluvialsedimentwhich floodplain. These remnants are overlain ofthemodern sections Volga-Akhtuba low-water level, ingeological are preserved under thepresent-day Volga mean River successions lyingdeeperthan20–25m why onlyremnants oftheoldest alluvial a substantialchannelincision. That is base level drop cannot be followed by incisions. Undersuchconditions, the did notfavor thedevelopment ofdeeper lowseawardwith extremely gradients shallowcoastalzone20–25 m.Avery Caspian Searegressions didnotexceed palaeo-Volga the channelincisionduring floodplain formation. The depthof the channel andfloodplainfaciesduring usuallyseparatedmaterial into active later andredeposited reworked asalluvial and lagoonsediment. This sedimentwas into previously deposited layers ofmarine Volga followed thefallingsealevel, incising theregressiveDuring phases, thepalaeo- fauna.sediment becamesettledbymarine conditions. such limane-like This finer bottom underoccurred ontheestuary gradual andcontinuoussedimentation waters, flowingslowlyseaward. Relatively sea level becamefilledwithslightlysaline ofthevalleylocated belowthearisenparts thetransgressiveDuring phases, thelower vegetation. offloodplaintopography,type andmodern absolute and relative heights, morphological in ofdifferent agegenerationsvary surfaces identifiedinthisstudy. types surface The generations ofancientfloodplainanddelta topography thatcorrelate withthree in themodern Volga-Akhtuba floodplain andNovocaspianLate Khvalinian ages transgressive-regressive phasesofthe There are pronounced tracesoffour ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  005.08.2010 16:19:26 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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1 4 . Korotaev, V.N., andChernov, A.V. anddynamicsofthe (2000).Morphology Volga-Akhtuba 6. Goretsky, G.I.(1966). The Volga River Valley formation inLower Pleistocene. andMiddle 5. Geologyofregion Volga Canal. –Don (1960).Edited by V.D. Galaktionov. Moscow– 4. Geologyofthe Volga (1951).Edited byM.V. Delta. River Klenova. The GOINProceedings, 3. systems ofRussiaandChina:hydrological-morphological procceses, Estuarine-deltaic 2. N.S.(1990).Palaeoindication oftheLower Bolikhovskaya, Volga Region landscape 1. 13. Nikolaev, V.A. (1962).Geological evolution, relief andalluvialdeposits. In: 12. Lower Volga geomorphology, River: palaeogeography andchannelmorphodynamics. M.Yu.,Lokhin, 11. andMaev, E.G.(1990). Pleistocene agepalaeodeltasonshelfof The Middle Li C.X.,Ivanov V.V.,10. Korotaev V., Yang S.Y., ofthe ChalovR.,andLiuS.G.(2004).Development N.S.,Lychagin Kroonenberg S.B., Kasimov M.Yu. (2008). The CaspianSea,anatural 9. Kroonenberg G.V., S.B., Rusakov Svitoch A.A.(1997). ofthe The wandering Volga delta:a 8. Korotaev, V.N., andChernov, A.V. (2001).Formation ofthe Volga-Akhtuba valleyfloodplain 7. 14. Rychagov, G.I.(1977). The CaspianSea Pleist REFERENCES floodplain. Publ.,Moscow, Nauka 412p. (in Russian). Leningrad, State Power SupplySources. Publ., 416p. (inRussian). vol. 18(30).Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat Publ., 395p. (inRussian). Russian). andpredicationgeomorphology ofevolution. (2007).Moscow, GEOSPubl., 445p. (in geomorphology. evolution over thelast10thousandyears. In: (2002). Ed. by G.I. Rychagov and (2002). Ed. byG.I.Rychagov V.N. Korotaev. Moscow, `GEOSPubl., 241p. (inRussian). pp. 34–39(inRussian). part. Caspian Seanorthern the Middle Research Volga inResponseto Delta CaspianSea-Level Fluctuation Last100 during Year. for sea-level change.laboratory response to rapidCaspianSea-level change. (in Russian). and river channelprocesses and the Volga thelate Pleistocene palaeodeltasduring River andHolocene. In: University Publ.,University 268p. (inRussian). Publ.,University pp. 11–56(inRussian). agriculture oftheVolga-Akhtuba Valley andtheVolga Delta River , 20(1),pp. 152–165. Geomorfologiya Moscow, Nauka Publ.,Moscow, Nauka pp. 52–68(inRussian). , vol. 13.Moscow, State Publ., University Moscow pp. 229–240 , 3,pp. 61–69(inRussian). J. Geography Environment sustainability Vestnik Moscow StateUniversity, Geography J. Sedimentary Geology J. Sedimentary The Caspian Sea-Questions ofgeologyand The Caspian Sea-Questions ocene history. Moscow, State Moscow . Moscow, State Moscow , 107,pp. 189–209. , No01.pp. 22–37. Nature and J. ofCoastal Soil erosion Soil , vol. 3, 005.08.2010 16:19:26 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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17. Varushchenko, S.I., Varushchenko, (1987) R.K. A.I.,andKlige, Svitoch, A.A.,and 16. Yanina, T.A. (1994).Structureanddevelopment ofthe Volga Delta. River works, including21monographs, 3thematicmapsand2atlases. ofregulationprinciples ofrivermouths. 150scientific Hehaspublishednearly 15. vallesofLower E.N.(2004).Buried Svitoch, A.A., andBadukova Volga. 1 5 works, including11monographs andtutorials. and11textbooks withtheBasicsofGeology”.“Geomorphology 150scientific Hehaspublishednearly Publ., 239p. (inRussian). and enclosedwater bodieshydrological regime thepalaeo-times. during Geomorfologiya pp. 55–68(inRussian). , 4,pp. 11–24(inRussian). works, including3thematicmapsand 6monographs. floodplains, andriver valleys. Hehas published170scientific channel processes andecological conditionsofriver channels, and regionalizationcartography basedonriver- ofterritories field offormation anddevelopment of river floodplains, State Pedagogical University. inthe Heisaleadingexpert ofPhysical GeographyDepartment andGeoecology, Moscow CHERNOV, Aleksey V. the CaspianSea.Dr. hastaughtacore course Rychagov development andforecast – reservoir oftheendorheic to theresearchmade avaluablecontribution ofthe oftheCaspianBasin.Hehasand geomorphology around inthefieldsofpaleogeography theworld Federation.” inRussiaand expert Heisawell know title “Honored Worker ofSciencetheRussian State University.Moscow Dr. hasthehonorary Rychagov Paleogeography, Faculty ofGeography, M.V. Lomonosov full Professor, and ofGeomorphology Department RYCHAGOV, Georgy I. and development ofrelief anddeltaplains, and geochronology ofdeltassediments, structure, genesis deltas,river whichcovers sedimentsaccumulation, branch ofscience, i.e. of dynamicgeomorphology He hascreated andsuccessfullydeveloped new ofcoastalzonegeomorphology andriverdeltas. University. inthefieldof Heisaprominent expert Faculty ofGeography, M.V. Lomonosov State Moscow ofSoilErosion ChannelProcesses, andRiver Laboratory Leading Research Scientist,ScientificResearch KOROTAEV,N. Vladislav is Doctor ofGeography,is Doctor Headof is Doctor ofGeography, isDoctor is Doctor ofGeography,is Doctor . Changes oftheCaspianSea Geomorfologiya

Moscow, Nauka Moscow, Nauka , 2, 005.08.2010 16:19:26 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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1 6 * Corresponding author Italy to September smaller valuesof andJanuary, whereasDecember from April maximal valuesof 1500–2500m, the At theheightinterval fixed showsonlyweak seasonalchanges. period, andoncetheheightis observation change withheightover theentire Väisälä to amoderate issubject frequency The valuesobtainedreveal thattheBrunt- (both 00GMT and12GMT). 3000–4000 m,4000–50007000–8000m 2500 m,(00GMT only)and2500–3500m, 300–700m,800–18001500– intervals evaluationsat soundings andperforming 1991–2007,using00GMTperiod and12GMT recordusing thehistorical ofsoundingsinthe of temporal variability thispaperwe investigateIn thespatialand and fullydiminishat7000–8000m. 2500–3500m, recognizable intheinterval decrease withincreasing height. They are still a flatplateau. generallyThese variations N The Brunt-Väisälä frequency, atmosphere, staticstability 1 2 G. Grandoni of theatmosphere. quantifiesthestaticstability velocity), friction potential temperature,virtual and ABSTRACT KEY WORDS: INTRODUCTION FREQUENCY OVER MILAN, ITALY CLIMATOLOGY OF THE BRUNT-VÄISÄLÄ Servizi Servizi Territorio, Italy Milan, for NationalAgency New Enea, Italian Technologies Energy andtheEnvironment, 2 = g v z v 1 (where , M.C.Mammarella Brunt-Väisälä frequency, free N are observed between between are observed N over the city of Milan, ofMilan, over thecity z theheight, N , definedas N represent 1 *, M.Favaron u θ * v the the whose valuehasbeensampled attheends been fitted bymonotonic cubicsplines perturbations. Then, individualprofiles have due to measurement errors andother the Brunt-Väisälä isnotpossible frequency Direct useofsoundingdatato estimate always nighttime, and12GMT daytime. been considered. Atsite longitude, 00GMT is are notalways present andhave thennot 18GMT. these, profiles Of 06GMT and18GMT at standard hours00GMT, 06GMT, 12GMT and soundingare available thisinterval, 2007. In consideredThe timeperiod spans1991to downloadfacility.University asavailable fromE ofMilan), the Wyoming (16080 LIML,lat.45°27’N,lon.9°16’E,4km attheLinate airport soundings taken areData usedinthiswork lowresolution due to PBLdynamics. avoid, inthelimitspossible, perturbations Provisions have to prevent beentaken and average.yearly considered,whole period andchangesin the average seasonalchangereferred to the addressed oftimevariation areThe types are available. easily accessiblelow-resolution soundings 1991–2007,for onperiod which of Milan of theBrunt-Väisälä over thearea frequency This paperinvestigates thetimevariation DATA AND METHOD 2 005.08.2010 16:19:27 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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N the firstorder difference approximation been estimated from thesesamplesusing Brunt-Väisälä hasthen frequency Interval 3000–4000 m,4000–50007000–8000m). 800–1800 m,1500–25002500–3500 (300–700m, of afamilyheightintervals estimates. anddiurnal allowing separationofnocturnal stamped withdate andtime(0012GMT), reduced aspossible. Datainsetare time with contaminationfrom PBLdynamics mentioned has beenconstituted, intervals containing valuesof At endofthesecomputing, adataset values have beeninspected. andestimated temperatureexperimental and theabsolute difference between heightlevels,evaluated atexperimental profiles have thenbeenThe surviving discarded. splines andhave beenconsequently considered, 5049yieldednon-monotonic the20135total profilesthe statistics. Of of ill-behaved profiles to contaminate has beenusedto reduce theopportunity splineidentification,andconstraint during more severe thanimposingmonotonicity been removed. This approach isactually 8000 m)andany non-monotonic item has evaluated intheusefulrange (300mto fitted profilesIndividual have thenbeen ofthefittingfunction. the monotonicity 1986], whichpersedoesnotguarantee [Hutchinson,using theroutine CUBGCV cubicsplinefittinghasbeendone The actual through theresidual layer. inherited to reflect PBL dynamicproperties to draw conclusions, astheirvalueislikely andnotused purposes used for checking 300–700 mand800–1800have been PBL dynamics. On00GMT datafrom intervals excluded to prevent contaminationfrom 1800 mand1500–2500have been 300–700m,800– from heightintervals On 12GMT, estimates oftheBrunt-Väisälä 1 7 2 = g v v z z . N relative to theheight • • from thedata set,namely: formed starting Various timeaverages have thenbeen • sounding to sounding, andwidelyspaced non-uniform frompoints beingremarkably datanumber andpositionofexperimental public downloadisalsoevident,the resolution radiosoundingsavailable for theproblem withlowvisual inspection; suggested byresiduals by isconfirmed sounding points. The goodadaptation radiowith thecorresponding experimental reconstructed profiles are shownalong figure specificexamplesof 2,two In data. reconstructed profiles to theexperimental a goodvisualadaptationofthesmooth the heightrange300-8000m,andsuggest temperature alongthe typical variation absolute deviationsare smallrespect to Bothmeanandmaximumnot exceed 2K. considered, thevalueoftheiraverage does maxima ofabsolute residuals are per-radiosoundingfrom thedataset.If monotonic profiles have beenexcluded eventhe datainterpolation, thenon- after whenperforming the 0.5Kerror selected The average absolute residual iscloseto figure 1. at00GMT are functions shownindensity at 12GMT. The corresponding empirical for profiles at00GMT and0.561.70K found respectively equalto 0.59and1.76K and estimated temperature have been absolute difference experimental between The averages ofmeanandmaximum RESULTS N averages andyearly limits onperiod of Bootstrap estimate ofthe95%confidence reference hour(00or12GMT) standard deviationof averageWhole datasetandyearly and “Typical year”“Typical of 12GMT) whole dataset. from the reference hour(00or12GMT) datawithsamereference hour(00or N datawithsame N datawithsame 005.08.2010 16:19:27 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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1 8 of thedataset. shown, to present theoverall variability standard deviationsareIndividual also obtained usingbootstrapmethod. the respective 95%confidence interval, average from lower andupperlimitsof represent themaximumdeviationof height intervals. The error values the Brunt-Väisälä atdifferent frequency Table 1presents average theperiod of in amore sophisticated manner. affectedexclude evaluation boundary-layer visual meanstheheightofPBLto detailed analyses, by namelydetecting moreusing directlythesedatafor further in someinstances. difficultThis may make even closeto groundalong thevertical Figure 1:Empiricaldensitiesofaverage andmaximumabsoluteresiduals on00GMT the monthly empirical distributions; and distributions; the monthlyempirical 1500–2500 mdataviaabox-plot summarizing period. Figureobservational 3presents the using the00GMT soundingsover theentire changes intheBrunt-Väisälä frequency, Figures 3and4illustrate theseasonal method. limits obtainedusingthebootstrap lower and upper limitsof95%confidence fromdefined asthemaximumshifts the Averages are given witherror values computed usingonly00GMT soundings. All averages andstandard deviationsare 2500, 2500–3500and7000–8000meters. 1500– forfrequency theheightintervals standard deviationofBrunt-Väisälä Table average 2showstheyearly and 005.08.2010 16:19:28 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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(for convenience, increasing height to decrease with period-averaged ofthetendency show amodest The datapresented (1991–2007). whole dataperiod deviations over the monthly standard figure 4represent the barsin the variation and 7000–8000m; 1500–2500 from heightintervals thetwo figure 4compares themonthlymeans DISCUSSION 1 9 N

Figure profiles 2:Exampleofvertical oftemperature Table 1:Period averages oftheBrunt-Väisälä frequency 0080 .09±000 .03008 .020.0056 0.0087±0.0002 0.0028 n/a 0.0043 0.0108±0.0001 0.0026 0.0028 0.0089±0.0002 0.0115±0.0001 0.0029 7000–8000 m n/a 0.0030 0.0111±0.0001 0.0116±0.0001 4000–5000 m 0.0031 0.0111±0.0001 3000–4000 m 0.0035 0.0109±0.0001 2500–3500 m 0.0110±0.0001 1500–2500 m 0–80m000 .01003 / n/a n/a 0.0036 0.0105±0.0001 800–1800 m 0–0 .16±000 .01nan/a n/a 0.0041 0.0136±0.0002 300–700 m N Mean of each interval). is of eachinterval). observed The pattern tothe heightisattributed thelower limit 0M 12GMT 00GMT deviation Standard Mean deviation Standard 005.08.2010 16:19:29 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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2 0 2005 (respectively 2007). 2500 m(respectively 7000m) occurred on The minimumBrunt-Väisälä at frequency onalongertimescale. with fluctuations the latter’s present asmootherbehavior, 1500m to otheraltitudes, itcanbenoticed of variation theyearly Comparing future work. investigated, of andmay bethesubject temperature inLinate hasnotbeen between considered.period However, therelation summerinthewhole bythewarmer Italy the year inNorthern 2003,characterized 1500 mtheminimumvalueoccurred in be noticedthatthechangesare small. At averages analyzingtheyearly By of hour (00GMT or12GMT). independent onthechoiceofsounding Table 2: Yearly 07000 .04003 .17±000 .08008 .030.0025 0.0029 0.0083±0.0003 0.0059 0.0079±0.0006 0.0028 0.0033 0.0091±0.0006 0.0027 0.0107±0.0003 0.0047 0.0088±0.0004 0.0057 0.0107±0.0003 0.0032 0.0030 0.0089±0.0005 0.0026 0.0109±0.0005 0.0034 0.0106±0.0004 0.0044 0.0081±0.0005 0.0031 0.0106±0.0004 2007 0.0058 0.0108±0.0004 0.0045 0.0089±0.0004 0.0026 0.0108±0.0003 2006 0.0033 0.0112±0.0006 0.0062 0.0089±0.0005 0.0028 0.0109±0.0003 2005 0.0033 0.0107±0.0004 0.0068 0.0096±0.0010 0.0029 0.0110±0.0003 2004 0.0030 0.0105±0.0005 0.0050 0.0099±0.0013 0.0028 0.0110±0.0003 2003 0.0033 0.0107±0.0003 0.0027 0.0093±0.0007 0.0029 0.0107±0.0003 2002 0.0030 0.0107±0.0004 0.0033 0.0087±0.0003 0.0027 0.0112±0.0003 2001 0.0032 0.0109±0.0003 0.0058 0.0090±0.0004 0.0031 0.0108±0.0003 2000 0.0031 0.0107±0.0004 0.0029 0.0092±0.0006 0.0031 0.0113±0.0003 1999 0.0031 0.0110±0.0003 0.0023 0.0089±0.0003 0.0031 0.0109±0.0003 1998 0.0036 0.0112±0.0004 0.0025 0.0084±0.0003 0.0030 0.0106±0.0004 1997 0.0033 0.0113±0.0004 0.0088±0.0003 0.0029 0.0108±0.0003 1996 0.0031 0.0110±0.0004 0.0030 0.0111±0.0003 1995 0.0035 0.0111±0.0004 0.0112±0.0003 1994 0.0033 0.0113±0.0004 1993 0.0034 0.0115±0.0005 1992 0.0115±0.0005 1991 Year N and the yearly average surface average andtheyearly surface N enSd e enSd e enStd. Mean Std. dev Mean Std. dev Mean 5020 5030 7000–8000m 2500–3500m 1500–2500 m at 00GMT N itcan N at 3 thebandsfrom 25 figuremagnitude In ofmonthlyvariation. at00GMT isinthesameordertaken of ofmonthlyvaluesthe seasonalvariation At allaltitudesinvestigated, however, an almostconstantbehavior manifests. not evidentat7000–8000m(figure 4),where This dynamics, stillevidentat2500–3500m,is out to alower plateau from to August. April waning andJanuary maximum inDecember dynamics (figure bya 3),characterized at00GMTfrequency exhibitaseasonal intheBrunt-VäisäläThe monthlyvariation period may benecessary.period high resolution soundingdataonalonger in adefinitive manner, analysisof00GMT order this. thispointconfirm to In clarify data. barsinfigure The variation 4further inmonthlyshows astrong variability th to 75 to th percentiles 005.08.2010 16:19:30 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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2 1 Figure 4:Comparison between typicalyear ofBrunt–Väisälä at frequency different altitudes (00GMT) Figure 3: Typical year ofBrunt–Väisälä between frequency 1500and2500m(00GMT) 005.08.2010 16:19:30 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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2 2 • processing particular: options. In at thecostofusingmore advanceddataand issuitableofimprovement, inthiswork described The climatology oftheBrunt-Väisälä frequency sites iscurrently plannedbytheauthors. occur, ofthisstudyto other andanextension to withlatitudeislikely of seasonalvariation andamplitude a relation thekind between to othersites isnotautomatic. particular, In nature local, andtheirextension their very inthispaperareAll findingsdescribed by • • climatology are: elementsofthis has beenobtained. Key climatology oftheBrunt-Väisälä frequency referencevarious altitudes, from whicha set spanninga17yearsand timeperiod The estimates to permitted constitute adata valueof0.01. compatible withtypical radio soundingdata,andproviding values automatic processing ofpubliclyavailable Brunt-Väisälä madefrom frequency the The methodusedyieldedestimates ofthe . JacobsonM.(2005)Fundamentals Modeling, 2ndedition, Cambridge ofAtmospheric 4. Hutchinson M.F. (1986)ALGORITHM 642:afastprocedure for calculatingminimumcross-validation 3. Holton J.R. Meteorology, (2004)Anintroductionto Dynamic 4thedition,ElsevierAcademic 2. andmean S.S.(2006)Universal turbulent dependencesbetween EsauI.N.,Zilitinkevich 1. CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES would of allowthevisualdetection Use ofhighresolution radiosoundings strong variability. evident atlowaltitudes, to a superposed moreThe existence ofaseasonalvariation, to otherclimatological indicators; possibly correlatedwith minorvariations averages, ofyearly A relative constancy University Press,University Cambridge, 813pp. cubic smoothingsplines, ACM Transactions Software, 12,2,150–153 onMathematical Press, MA, Burlington 535pp. Processes inGeophysics, 13, 135–144 layers. Nonlinear boundary flow parameters instablyandneutrallystratified planetary Network Model. Network input parameter intheATMOSFERA pollution incities. The PBLheightisan approach hasbeenusedto predict air “ATMOSFERA©®” where theneuralnetwork oftheENEAprojectthe framework in hasbeenperformed This work work. and may ofafuture constitute thesubject currently underevaluationbytheauthors, implications. practical areThese extensions withpossible into accountinthiswork, taken ataltitudeslower thantheones frequency explore thebehavior oftheBrunt-Väisälä Addressing theseitems would allowto • • ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS are used. the more “nervous” highresolution data would beofeven highervaluewhen use ofthedataavailable –thischange adopted, would allowamore efficient non-monotonic profile removal thanthealthough lessconservative the temperature fittingcubicsplines, onExplicit impositionofmonotonicity underused; the valueofdataat12GMT, currently PBL, allowingitsremoval andsoimproving ofconvective detection allow thedirect resolution soundingswouldHigh also affecteddirectly byPBLdynamics; ofprofilesthe precise removal ofthepart anomalies, suchasresidual layers, allowing  © ® Neural 005.08.2010 16:19:32 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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10. Zilitinkevich S.S., Esau I.N., Baklanov A.(2007)Further height commentsontheequilibrium S.S.,EsauI.N.,Baklanov Zilitinkevich 10. S.S.,EsauI.N.(2003) Zilitinkevich depthof The effect ofbaroclinicityontheequilibrium 9. layer A.(2002)Calculationoftheheightstableboundary S.S.,Baklanov Zilitinkevich 8. Layer Meteorology, to StullR.B. Boundary (1988)AnIntroduction Academic Kluwer 7. Sozzi R.,Georgiadis T., Valentini alla M.(2002)Introduzione Turbolenza Atmosferica, 6. Core RDevelopment Team (2008)R:ALanguageandEnvironment for Statistical 5. 2 3 outcomes. ofnumerousAuthor publications, andco-author hehasbeenalsoawarded for achieved control. tooriented theairquality state oftheatmosphere into thePBLanddevelop newtechnologies andscientifictools foreign universities (ASU, FMI, RSHU, to themicro-meteorological characterize Helsinki) (Rome,He coordinates Salento) andcollaborates and withItalian thescientificactivities Naples). bigcities(Rome, Milan, insomeItalian predict airquality andresources outactivities to stochastichas carried develop modelsto neuralnetwork of neutral and stable planetary boundary layers. Quart. J. layers. Roy. Quart. boundary Soc., Met. 133,265–271. of neutralandstableplanetary layers, Q. boundary J.neutral andstableplanetary R.Meteorol. Soc., 129,3339–3356 Layer Meteorology, applications,in practical Boundary 105,389–409 Publishers, Dordrecht, 670pp. Pitagora Editrice, Bologna, 525pp. URL http://www.R-project.org Computing, RFoundation for StatisticalComputing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN3-900051-07-0, Being ascientificleaderoftheProject “ATMOSFERA atmosphere andthedepositionto theground level. into the model aboutthepollutantdispersionandtransport and implementingamulti-sources original deterministic engaged ininvestigations bydeveloping ontheairquality Technologies, Energy andEnvironment) at1980,hewas for NationalAgency New inEnea(Italian hiscarrier Starting Rome. (spe Giovanni Grandoni cialization inGeophysics) attheUniversity “La Sapienza” of has received his degree of Doctor of Physics has received hisdegree ofPhysics ofDoctor ©® ” he 225.08.2010 16:00:32 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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2 4 member of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM).member oftheAssociation for Computing Machinery (GSA)andsince2009 ofAmerica Since 2004heismemberoftheGeological Society published in scientific journals andconferencepublished inscientificjournals proceedings. Award andin2008shereceived theEunomiaAward. The results ofherstudieswere Research. Shewasproposed asa candidate from Accademia deiLinceifor theItalgas given to herbyOCSEfrom Paris, for Scientific bySASInstitute, byCIVRfrom Department developing newinstrumentsandtechnologies. Credits for theresults obtainedwere Arizona State University, theFinnish for University) Meteorological andHelsinki Institute pollution agentsintheair. Sheisinvolved research withinternational groups (suchas studying of “Atmospheric Layer”, Boundary whichhasfundamentaleffects onspreading Mammarella focused herresearch forecast onlinking systemsusingthe to neuralnetwork for micro-meteorological andhydrological applications. in thedevelopment ofdataacquisitionsystems andmodels self-standing automatic station,andcurrently participates development real-time oftheMeteoflux® eddycovariance engineer to hecontributed project leaderandsoftware the publishedinsomepeer-reviewedwith works journals. As Layer, Boundary the Planetary andpollutantdispersion, research interests are ultrasonicanemometry, physics of in1987.His ofMilan mathematics attheUniversity Dr. MaurizioFavaron andA.R.T.E.M.I.S.I.AUdine district 2inSicily. RecentlyM.C. projects for control, airquality suchasA.R.T.E.M.I.S.I.A, in made, orcoordinated, several ground appliedresearch andNaples, outinRome, M.C.Mammarella Milan carried (A.T.M.O.S.F.E.R.A. able to forecast airpollutionlevel 72hoursinadvance automatic intelligent stationbasedonneuralnetwork, made adecisive to thedevelopment contribution ofan and research andshe andairquality onmeteodiffusivity outweather studies joined theENEAin1983to carry Sapienza” She (specializationinMathematics). University Maria CristinaMammarella ©® ). BesidesA.T.M.O.S.F.E.R.A. has obtainedhisdegree inapplied graduated from the “La ©® projects, 225.08.2010 16:00:33 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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1975; Dzerdzeevskii, 1962; Dzerdzeevskii, 1975; Dzerdzeevskii, 1962;Dzerdzeevskii, according to B.L. Dzerdzeevskii [Dzerdzeevskii, circulation mechanismclassification elementary ofGeography theInstitute circulation. RAS,the In help oftheclassificationglobalatmospheric changes may bequantitatively assessedwith the dynamic componentsoftheclimate system. Its circulationAtmospheric isoneofthemost Hemisphere, Russia Northern circulation epoch,climate fluctuations, circulationatmospheric fluctuations, circulationmeridional group duration (numberofdays) ofthesouthern increase (numberofcases)and infrequency bythe the 1981–2008period, ischaracterized –haveand American beengiven. The recent, Atlantic, European, Far Siberian, East,Pacific, Hemisphere – anditssixsectors Northern decadesofcirculation extreme epochsinthe of circulation andclimaticcharacteristics circulation epochshave beenidentified. The differences circulation inatmospheric between classification have beendiscussed. The 1899 to 2008according to Dzerdzeevskii circulation innon-tropical latitudesfrom Hemisphere atmospheric and annualNorthern ofmonthly offluctuation series The long-term phone: (495)1290474, fax (495)9590033, e-mail: [email protected] phone: (495)1290474,fax(495)9590033,e-mail: Moscow 119017,Russia; ofGeography,Institute RussianAcademy ofSciences, 29Staromonetny, Nina Kononova INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS. ABSTRACT 2 CLASSIFICATION ACCORDING TODZERDZEEVSKII’S ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LONG-TERM FLUCTUATIONS 5 Macro-circulation processes,Macro-circulation and precipitation fluctuations indifferentand precipitation fluctuations airtemperatureStudies oflong-term the lastwarming. ofthe1920s–1940s and inwarming distinctions is alsoimpossibleto explainglobalandregional Hemisphere;regions it andtheentire Northern temperatures andtotal precipitation inisolated ofincreaseof theperiods and decrease inair itisimpossibleto explainalternation fluctuations proper attention. However, withoutstudyingthese circulation ofatmospheric islacking fluctuations At thepresent time, theanalysisoflong-term 2005]. Mokrov,2007; Kononova, Seliverstov, Tareeva,. Malneva, 2003;Kononova, Malneva, Kononova, 2007; Hemisphere [Kononova, of theNorthern natural hazardous events indifferent regions Discharge, 1976; 2006]and Kononova, Titkova, The Nature ofLong-Term Fluctuations ofRiver water, snowandiceregimes [Kononova,2003; Romanov. 2004;Byshev, Nejman,Romanov, 2006], ocean system [Byshev, Neiman, Kononova, Polozova, ofatmosphere 1966.];fluctuations – and regional changesofclimate [Rubinshtein, Kononova, [Chernavskaya, Val`chuk, 2006];global relationships has beenusedto studysolar–earth over specificregions. Therefore, thisclassification andanticyclones ofcyclones and thetrajectories Hemisphere theentireit characterizes Northern feature ofthisclassificationisthat The important Kurganskaya, 1946]hasbeenapplied. Vitvitskaya,

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2 6 isolate 41 elementary circulation mechanisms isolate 41 elementary Analyses ofsynopticdailymapsallowoneto Hemisphere anddifferent regions ofRussia. reflected intheclimate oftheNorthern aredemonstrate howthesefluctuations B.L. andto Dzerdzeevskii andco-authors basedontheclassificationby 2008 period circulation the1899– of atmospheric during results fluctuations ofstudieslong-term ofthispaperisto presentThe purpose the circulation.atmospheric of shown theircorrelation withfluctuations Hemisphere have oftheNorthern sectors METHODS ANDMETHODS DATA c) northern meridional, ECM12a;d)southernmeridional, ECM 13w.c) northern also (See Table 1).Arrows show the Figure circulation 1.Examples ofdynamicschemeselementary mechanisms (ECM)ofdifferent circu- lation groups according toDzerdzeevskii: a)zonal, ECM1a;b) disturbance ofzonal circulation, ECM 3; cyclonic trackscyclonic (dark)andanticyclonic tracks (light). Letters “H” and “L” denotehighatmosphere pres- sure (anticyclone) andlow one(cyclone), respectively the North Pole, the North cyclone 2–4ofsouthern is the 4 groups 1,Figure (Table 1). The firstgroup ECM have beengrouped in13types,and for 2009]. fluctuation 1899–2008[Kononova, of series andlong-term 1984], annualseries 500 for 1970–1978[Savina, Khmelevskaya, height ofAT 500andtemperatures atAT maps ofseelevel pressure andtemperature, Dzerdzeevskii, Kurganskaya, 1946], Vitvitskaya, [Dzerdzeevskii, 1968; scheme anddescription trajectory andanticyclone unique cyclone are seasonalinnature. EachECMhasa featureThe important ofECMisthatthey outlets. cyclone andofsouthern of blocking (ECM). They differ indirectionandquantity zonal (types 1 and 2: anticyclone on 1and2:anticyclone (types 005.08.2010 16:19:34 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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Table circulation mechanismsgroups ofelementary 1.Characteristic according to classifi archives, most recent publications, listof this classification(background material, 2009]. [Kononova, The results obtainedusing been publishedfor 1899–2008 theperiod ofECMhas ofalternations The History his colleagues, and, then,byhiscolleagues. first developed atbyB.L. Dzerdzeevskii and ofECMhasbeen ofalternations The History 1997 –inelectronicformat). of Hydrometcentre SynopticBulletin(from used andthen,theentireofmaps collection weather maps,[Historical 1899–1948]were 1899. First, theseelevel pressure maps given for theentire beginning period in ofECMhasbeen ofalternation The History winter, while4outletshappeninsummer) outletsover theHemispherecyclone in there are insummer: often only3southern processes allseasons, occurduring butmore the regeneration Such cyclones. ofsouthern onthearcticfront action especially cyclonic circulation over asaresult theArctic of bycyclone 13)thatischaracterized (type groupThe fourth isthe outlets). cyclone and2–4southern blockings through 12:highpressure intheArctic, 2–4 group isthe over theHemisphere). blocking The third 3 through 7:highpressure onthePole, one second group isthezonal(types disturbance withoutblocking). outlets in2–4sectors The 2 7 ** Letters “s” and “w” indicate summerandwinter seasonscorrespondingly outlets.processes cyclones andsouthern * NumbersofECM(1to 13)are labeledbyletters “a”, “b”, “с”, “d” according to geographical locationsofblocking Southern meridi- Southern Northern meridi- Northern zonal circulation Disturbance of Disturbance mechanisms elementary elementary circulation Group of oa a–bHg – Fig. 1a 2–3 0 High 1a*–2b Zonal onal onal Northern Hemisphere extra tropical atmosphericNorthern processes [10] northern meridional northern mechanisms Elementary Elementary circulation 3*–3 o – Fig. 1d 3–4 0 13s**–13w Low a1gHg - – Fig. 1c 2–4 2-4 High 8a–12g (ECM) –b ih123Fig. 1b 2–3 1 High 3–7bs southern meridional , (types 8 , (types Atmospheric pressure at the Arctic the Arctic region

average duration value)were made. of thezonal circulation from itslong-term withpositiveperiods ornegative deviations andcirculationand southern)) epochs(i.e., zonal) (thenorthern andthemeridional ofthe (the zonal itselfanddisturbances (composite) circulation groups (i.e., thezonal the firstrepresentations ofgeneralized in 1956[Dzerdzeevskii, 1956].Atthattime, ofECM,haveof alternation beenpublished Hemisphere basedontheHistory Northern multi-year circulation atmospheric over the First results ofresearch to study efforts website www.atmospheric-circulation.ru. 1). (Table These dataare alsoplacedonthe basis for theentire beginning period in1899 on amonthly, circulation season,andyearly of ECMandthedurationwascalculated ofthealternation usingtheHistory categories this goal, ECMwere grouped indifferent andforecast.climatic fluctuations To address Hemisphere istheanalysisoflong-term circulationatmospheric over theNorthern oftheclassification The basicpurpose circulation.ru. placed onthewebsite www.atmosphertc- was used)for 1899–2008are theperiod all publicationwhere thisclassification CIRCULATION FLUCTUATION OF ATMOSPHERIC simultaneous Amount of processes blocking blocking Amount of southern cyclones cyclones outlets cation ofthe Example 005.08.2010 16:19:35 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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2 8 Table annualcirculation groups 2.Summary duration (dais)inextreme decadesofcirculation epochs epoch,thedurationthe meridional zonal themodern, (1916–1956).During form 1957to thepresent time)andone (form2 meridional 1899to 1915and epochs form 1899to 2008(Fig. 2): There were incirculation 3alternations Note: N.m. – north meridional, Z.d. –zonalNote: disturbance, S.m.–southmeridional, N.m.–north Z.–zonal. Figure 2.Deviations ofthetotalannualduration ofthegeneralized zonal andmeridionalcirculation 1998–2007 1988–1997 1960–1969 1930–1939 1906–1915 1899–2007 eidDuration. Period a. er21(07 9(98 4 20)2 20)36(00 74(1998) 346(2000) 21(2004) 98(1992) 143(2000) 338(1993) 59(1998) 63(1992) 130(1962) 241(2007) 201(1989) 314(1969) year Max., 57(1995) 53(1962) 230(1932) 215(1995) 94(1964) year Max., 209(1933) 93(1964) 86(1938) 140(1913) 268(1969) 45(1937) 278(1915) year Max., 159(1931) 30(1913) 206(1933) 230(1932) 7(1910) year Max., 346(2000) 116(1910) 86(1938) 274(1915) 201(1989) year Max., 163(1945) 274(1915) year Max., vrg 9 21973649 316 61 97 7 304 268 119 19 115 26 184 149 42 250 124 181 52 42 197 18 Average 241 49 71 155 Average 4 29 13 216 Average 45 97 168 135 Average 95 246 Average 196 Average groups from corresponding average values (10-year moving average) ..Zd ..Z ..Sm Z.+Z.d. N.m.+S.m. Z. S.m. Z.d. N.m. 319 days peryear onaverage in1997– ECMwastotal durationofallmeridional [Dzerdzeevskii,. 1968]. The maximal previously suggested byB.L. Dzerdzeevskii thefirstepoch,asithasbeenduring ECMisgreaterof themeridional than Circulation groups 005.08.2010 16:19:36 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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processes (Fig. inthebeginning ofXX century 3). There were southern almostnomeridional (Figure 3). ECM andsouthern the durationofnorthern epochsaremeridional alsoassociated with Differences thefirstandmodern between in 2000(346days, Table 2). 2006 (Figure 2)withtheabsolute maximum 2 9 Figure 3.Deviations ofthetotalannualduration ofthegeneralized zonal group, meridional northern Figure 4.Along-termchangeinthe totalannualduration ofthegeneralized zonal circulation and southernmeridionalgroups ofcirculation from theirlong-termaverage values and disturbance ofzonal meridionalandsouthern circulation andnorthern meridional circulation groups in1899–2008 for 1899–2008(10-year moving average) epochs andtheannualdurationofeachECM Figure ofcirculation 4showsthestructure processes. andsouthern northern meridional weather in byalternations determined patterns circulation oftheyear with isover one-third now, southern thedurationofmeridional 1899–2008. Beginning in1980s, itgrew fastand in 1963,itreached themeanvaluefor the to increase in1920s;only Their durationstarted 005.08.2010 16:19:37 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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3 0 Table 3.Borders ofcirculation epochandtheperiods insidethem northern dominance ofthemeridional almost similar. 1977–1985,atanabsolute In processes southern wereand meridional from 1965to 1977,thedurationsofzonal XX century. As aresult, theperiod during greater minimumthaninthebeginning of duration ofthezonal processes reached even processes increased significantly whilethe time, southern thedurationofmeridional per year minimumin1992(Figure that 4).By decrease to a91daysyear withafurther absolute dominancein1969(268days per in1957ledto its circulation thatstarted northern in thedurationofmeridional zonal circulation prevailed. Anewincrease circulation alternated withyears whenthe the prevalence northern ofthemeridional fromthe period 1932to 1951,years with thezonalDuring epochandespeciallyin a 274days 2)). maximumin1915(Table (246 days peryear onaverage, with processes wasthelongest of northern epoch,theduration themeridional During circulation wasthelongest. southern 1992, 1994и1997,themeridional referred 1989,1991, to thezonal epoch.In Allyears, except fornorthern. 1975,canbe was longerindurationthanthemeridional theseyears,During thezonal circulation 1951 and1975represent theexception. year). The years 1932,1938,1939,1940,1945, (theaverageperiod durationof193days per group theentire prevails during practically group. circulation northern The meridional otenmrdoa 1899–1915 meridional Northern southern meridional 1957 to present Simultaneous increase of northern and Simultaneousincrease ofnorthern 1957to present meridional southern iclto pc er h eid nieeohYears The periods insideepoch Years Circulation epoch oa 1916–1956 Zonal growth of meridional northern processes growth northern ofmeridional h nraeo oa rcse uain1970–1980 The increase ofzonal processes duration Fast growth pro- meridional of southern southern meridional processes meridional duration southern Decrease of meridional southern and southern Decrease ofmeridional duration ofthezonal group. 2007,the In circulation and minimal northern meridional and anewincrease inthedurationof circulationsouthern withthedominance decrease inthedurationofmeridional From 1998to thepresent time, there isa processes grew (Figure 4). decrease, whilethedurationof northern to processes southern started of meridional averageterm value. From 1998,theduration i.e., itwasfour timesgreater thanthelong- to 45days onaverage for theentire period, processes was179days peryear compared southern 2008; thedurationofmeridional compared to 196days onaverage for 1899– processes was147days peryear northern 1997,thedurationofmeridional 2007]. In these meteorological conditions[Kononova, and hazardous naturalevents resulting from ofmeteorological extremes in re-occurrence processes becameareason for afastgrowth inatmospheric alternation period. Asharp theentirehas notbeenseenduring previous circulation ofatmospheric that instability anextremelyThis situationdetermined ofthreefactor exceeded themeanvalue. groupof thesouthern more thanbya duration ofthezonal group. The duration the sameandexceeded substantiallythe circulationand southern groups wasabout northern the durationsofmeridional processes.southern From 1986to 1977, increased andtook over themeridional circulation, thedurationofzonal processes cesses duration duration 1981–1997 1957–1969 1998–2007 005.08.2010 16:19:38 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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for 1899–1915from theaverage valuefor Hemispheretemperature over theNorthern negative deviationsofaverage annualair Hemisphere wascold(Fig. 5). There were The firstepochover theNorthern circulation.atmospheric Hemisphereof andfluctuations Northern were usedto analyze airtemperatures of the www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/] Hemisphere. the Northern The data[http:// circulation ofatmospheric in fluctuations under considerationagree well with Fluctuations theperiod ofclimate during epoch, includingthelastdecade. ofthethirdepochs andspecificperiods groups decadesofcirculation inextreme Table 2presents thedurationsofcirculation the circulation group 3). durations(Table withdifferentinto 4periods combinationsof epochcanbesubdivided southern meridional zonal epochswere relatively uniform, the and Thus, northern whilethemeridional thanin1997. 106 days shorter at theaverage valueof45days), butwas 1,6 timeslongerthantheaverage (73days circulation southern stillremainedmeridional NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FLUCTUATIONS OF CLIMATE OF THE 3 1 Figure 5.Deviations oftheaverage annualairtemperature over Hemisphere theNorthern for 1856–2008from average for 1961–1990[28] atmosphere” [Byshev, Neiman, Kononova, to climaticchangesinthesystem “ocean – processes meridional correlatedsouthern (Fig. increase 5).Asharp inthedurationof withawarming ECM,wasmarked southern was maximaldurationofthemeridional fromThe period 1986to 1997whenthere deviation (–0,134°С)wasnoted in1985. the deviationsof–0,294°C. The lastnegative 1976 wasthecoldestfor with thisperiod Hemisphere (Fig.the Northern 5). The year was somedecrease intemperature over epoch(1957–1985,Fig.modern 4),there ECM during meridional increase innorthern ofdecrease theperiod inzonalDuring and deviations of0,163°C. zonal epoch,wastheyear 1944,withthe average for 1961–1990. forThe warmest, this in 1931,1937–1941,1943,1944from the Hemispheretemperature over theNorthern positive deviationsofaverage annualair to as regions.” ofArctic “warming There were in temperatures thatwasreferred inhistory 1920th–1940th wasaccompaniedbytherise indurationofzonalIncrease processes in respectively. with thedeviationsof–0,542°Cand–0,53°, the coldestfor theentire 1899–2008period 1961–1990. The years 1917and1913were 005.08.2010 16:19:38 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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3 2 Table 4.Frequency ofchange(%)ECM12a,13wand13sin1899–1954 and 1993–2002[22] maximal (106and122days in2001and2006, outlets)is cyclones and 3to 4southern processes 12(3to 4blocking of ECMtype 4).Atthepresent(Table time, theduration ECM andsouthern the durationofnorthern circulation byachange in isdetermined atmospheric ofthemodern The character iscoolingfaster thanPacific.Atlantic Ocean in thetop 600-mlayer oftheocean. The There isadecrease inwater temperature changing [Byshev, Nejman,Romanov, 2006]. Now, thesystem “ocean –atmosphere” is down. the previous decade, hasslowed warming from 0,36°to 0,55°. Thus, with incomparison 2007); inotheryears, theanomalies varied 0,586° in2004,0,625°2005,and0,590° 0,6° occurred infour years (0,608°,in1998, Hemisphere ofapproximatelythe Northern the annualaverage airtemperature over However, inthelast11years, anomalyof Hemisphere withthedeviationof0,625°C. epochover theNorthern southern meridional forThe year 2005wasthewarmest the precipitation to highlatitudes. heatand southern andbring trajectories alongalmostmeridional that move farnorth cyclones basic generators ofthesouthern Pacific are andtheMediterranean the Ocean Romanov, 2004]. The tropical zone ofthe ye1 8912 – 1899–1923 Type 13 ye1 22 Type 13 C PERIODS ECM 13w 12a 3 21,7 12 13s 9320 827 4 — 18 9 2 1993–2002 1924–1954 1993–2002 1924–1954 1899–1923 2 3 3 Type 13 13s 13w 12a 01,5 10 are asfollows: Atlantic–60°W–0°; European circulation.atmospheric These boundaries ofdevelopmentseasonal character of the continentsandoceansthatdetermine positionsof drawn considering boundaries 1968; Dzerdzeevskii, 1970]withtheir subdivided into [Dzerdzeevskii, sixsectors Hemisphere was processes, theNorthern are possibleinanother. To studythese outletorzonal circulation cyclone southern inonearea,while there a may beblocking Hemisphere: location intheNorthern itself indifferent ways dependingonthe exchange manifestsof macro-circulation asauniform andcompleteacts mechanism circulation mechanismthat The elementary years. ecological registered extremes inrecent ofmeteorological andin re-occurrence frontsatmospheric thatleadsto increase for thebestconditionsfor deepeningof 12and13provides inECMtypes Alternation happenedin1899–1923. such alternations 12a.No transitions from13to type type 1961], andthere were 11timesmore reverse 1954 (basedonthedatafrom [Chaplygina, 1993–2002compared13 during to 1924– 7 more transitionsfrom12аto type type respectively). There were approximately THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CIRCULATION EPOCHS IN SECTORS OF ECM 005.08.2010 16:19:39 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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stationary anticyclone located in themiddle anticyclone stationary into a is anintrusionoftheairfrom thenorth ofthesector.parts For example, whenthere andsouthern the airstream inthenorthern ofadirection descriptions can bevarious applied. Similarto theseinstances, there andlatitudinalwestern”northern were longitudinal southern” or “longitudinal the sector, i.e., and “longitudinal northern definitions ofcirculation processes over be maintained. For suchcases, combined the sector, orthelatitudinalcirculation may withintherest of farnorth cyclone southern this case, there may beapenetrationof a ofthesector.to oneoftheboundaries In a poisonwhenArcticintrusionisdisplaced isolated to characterize, for example, such Hemisphere asawhole, werethe Northern groups, compared to theECMgrouping in 1968; Dzerdzeevskii, 1970].Additional Hemisphere ispresented in[Dzerdzeevskii, oftheNorthern in eachofthesixsectors into groups withsimilarcirculation patterns 500 were ECM usedasinputdata.Breaking direction oftheairstream from mapsAT from weatheranticyclones mapsandthe circulation. Trajectories and ofcyclones of acharacter to describe as acriterion the atmosphere over wasused the sector 1970]. oftheairstreamThe direction in [Dzerdzeevskii, 1968;Dzerdzeevskii, have beendeveloped byB.L. Dzerdzeevskii longitudinal circulation inindividualsector ofisolationlatitudinaland The principles terms “latitudinal” and “longitudinal” are used. Hemisphere, while, inindividualsectors, the applied to circulation processes for theentire case, theterms “zonal” and “meridional” are the Hemisphere ingeneral. However inthis circulation andfor epochsinthesector for asacriterion definingthe serves zonal processes ormeridional inasector Relative prevalence oftheduration differ dueto features discussedpreviously. the sameHemisphere epochappearto also Circulation epochsindifferent during sectors –120°W–60°W.American –120°E–170° E;Pacific –170°E–120°W; –60°E–120°E; Far–0°–60°E.; Siberian East 3 3 epochs indifferent for sectors theperiod There are adifferent numberofcirculation inmoreof itssixsectors details. Hemisphere ineach epochs oftheNorthern will address ofthecirculation acharacter inanother. andmeridional in onesector We are different theymay bezonal incharacter: thesameHemisphere during epoch, sectors Besides, thecirculation epochsindifferent earlier,sectors thanincontinental. processes andviceversa, occurinoceanic relative prevalence ofzonal over meridional of thistableindicates thatthechangesin arethe sectors presented in Table 5.Analysis ofthecirculationThe boundaries epochsin Hemisphere. relativesector withinthe to theirboundaries ofthecirculationboundaries epochsineach Hemisphere inthe showed ashift Northern graphs for thezonal circulation for theentire ofthesegraphsComparison withthe presented inFig. 6. latitudinal groups are ineachofthesixsectors inthedurationofgeneralized variations generalized longitudinal group. The long-term position.Allothersgroups form the stationary and(3)latitudinalwestern and southern (2) latitudinalwestern andlongitudinal includes 3groups: (1)latitudinalwestern, longitudinal. The generalized latitudinalgroup prevail overanticyclones thesector, and and ofcyclones when latitudinaltrajectories groups: latitudinalwhichincludesallECM Hemisphere, generalized onlytwo Northern to use, asinthecaseof it isnecessary anddefiningtheirseasonalcharacter) sectors ofcirculationboundaries epochsindifferent To solve someproblems (e.g., establishmentof minimal is5(Far East). groups andthe is9(American) inonesector southern” isused. The maximalnumberof term western andlongitudinal“latitudinal formed ontheArcticfront,with cyclones the cyclone ofasouthern there isinterfluence position”and stationary isdefined. When latitudes, thegroup “longitudinal northern 005.08.2010 16:19:40 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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3 4 005.08.2010 16:19:41 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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3 Figure 6.Deviations ofthetotalannualduration ofthegeneralized latitudinal circulation group insec- 5 a –Atlantic, b–European, c–Siberian,dFar East, e–Pacific, f–American tors of the Northern Hemisphere from theaveragetors oftheNorthern for 1899–2008: 005.08.2010 16:19:42 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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3 6 Far-East sectors. The epochsthatcoincide Pacific) andtheirdependantEuropean and occurred intheoceanic(theAtlanticand beginning ofXXepochs inthevery century specifically inthesesectors. The zonal manifested epochs itselfinthemeridional sectors, has andAmerican in theSiberian processesdevelopment oftheblocking Hemisphere bythe characterized Northern Thus, thefirst,meridional, epochinthe there inthe American. isameridional a zonal during epochintheAtlanticsector are 4opposite insign circulation epochs: sectors, there theAtlanticandAmerican In combination withlongitudinal southern.” the circulation group western in “latitudinal a substantialrole i.e., cyclones, ofsouthern longitudinal processes, and(3)zonal, with a clearprevalence ofeitherlatitudinalor epochs: (1)meridional, (2)onewithout sector, theSiberian In there are 3circulating cyclones. the generators ofthesouthern to thepresentof XX time, represent century above, thesesectors, sincethesecondhalf zonal asitwasnoticed and(2)meridional; European, Far-East, andPacific (1) sectors: Fig 6,there are 2circulation epochsinthe of 1899-2008.As shownin Table 5and Table hemisphere 5.Borders in1899–2007 ofcirculating ofnorthern epochinsectors tatc1899– Atlantic a at1899– Far East Sector Ameri- Pacifi c 1899– Pacifi c Euro- Sibe- pean can. rian odr hrce odr hrce odr hrce odr character Borders character Borders character Borders character Borders 1899– 1899– 1899– 1915 1962 1958 1931 1959 1966 IIIIV III II I eiin1916– Meridion eiin1932– Meridion oa 1963to Zonal oa 1959to Zonal oa 1967to Zonal 1960– Zonal prezent present present 1942 1980 1975 tion near Fluctua- average Meridi- Meridi- Meridi- Meridi- oa 1943– Zonal Circulating epoch onal onal onal onal between individualsectors.between in thedurationsoflatitudinalcirculation theresouthern) are themaximaldifferences and Hemisphere circulation (bothnorthern of maximaldevelopment ofthemeridional in 1989–1998. Therefore, theperiods during circulation are individualsectors between differences intheduration ofthelatitudinal in thebeginning ofthecentury. The greatest differedsectors even to agreater degree then the latitudinalcirculation individual between 1979 tillthepresent time, thedurationof in thefuture years. Beginning in1970– the average till1954–1963,withadecrease East andPacific where sectors itwasabove in allsectors, withtheexception oftheFar- aboutthemean 1943 to 1969–1978,itvaried individualsectors.between From 1934– latitudinal circulation differed significantly from 1899to 1934–1943,thedurationof identified from datapresented inFig. 7. Thus, latitudinal circulation may inallsectors be ofthe offluctuations periods Characteristic Neiman,Romanov,Kononova, 2004]. [Byshev, cyclones southern of re-occurring European are thebulk sectors experiencing the present time, thePacific, Far-East, and in itsdevelopment presented in Table 3.At Hemisphere southern, epoch,reflectperiods in timewiththethird, i.e., themeridional present 1981 to 1976– 1971 1984 ––– – –– ––– – –– ––– – –– eiin1972to Meridion oa – – Zonal oa 1985to Zonal present present Meridion Zonal 005.08.2010 16:19:44 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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to characterize modern climate.to modern characterize This the entire alone can notbeused period epoch becausejustameanvaluefor of climaticdatafor eachcirculation to have asetthought itwasnecessary B.L. Dzerdzeevskii [Dzerdzeevskii, 1969] 1959 period. Europein Eastern theentire during 1939– noticed adecrease insummertemperature Western 1962.]has Europe. [Kosiba, A.Kosiba andwithsignificantbut warm snowin 1911/12 wascoldandsnowfree in Siberia on [Easton, 1928],itwascold. The winter of whilein was warm, Western Europe (based example, thewinter of1906/07inSiberia temperature different extremes insigns. For air streams. This leads to theformation of European there sectors are opposite insign and under thesameECMinSiberian climate andmeteorological extremes. Thus, longitudinal circulationsthesectors’ impact Changes inthedurationoflatitudinaland in 1989–1998. in thePacific, Far-East, andEuropean sectors deviations inthelatitudinalcirculation group andthemaximalnegative cyclones southern the maximalincrease intheoutletsof circulation groups indicated ineachsector ofthedurationsall Analysis offluctuations 3 7 Figure 7.Deviations ofthetotalannualduration ofthegeneralized zonal circulation group from the average (10-year Hemisphere moving sectors value average) insixNorthern climatic characteristics. the relationships circulation between and region asexamples, we willdemonstrate and thewestern steppe region oftheAltai regionUsing theBlackSeacoastofKrasnodar 2005]. [Kononova, ofRussiahas beenappliedto theterritory nature ofECM. anticyclonic This procedure broken into or areas basedoncyclonic within thesectors, hasto eachsector be ofindividualterritoriesproperties circulationto describe andclimatic order In parts. intheireastern cyclones accompanied byoutletsofsouthern inwestern are sectors ECM, blockings longitudinal sectors. In within southern move orstationarywhile anticyclones areas there ismovement ofcyclones, withinlatitudinalECM,innorthern Often, modes indifferentofthesector. parts bydifferentcharacterized circulation Within each sector, individualECMare 100 years. occurrence ofonein20,50,andeven weather evens withalowprobability of many regions are extreme experiencing nowwhenthesis isespeciallyimportant REGIONAL FEATURES OF ECM 005.08.2010 16:19:44 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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3 8 is a connection with certain ECM.Dataon withcertain is aconnection natural processesregions, for particular there time. According dataonhazardous to known from isconducted which monitoring timeto (mudflows, landslides, avalanches, etc.), for that occurdueto meteorological conditions the analysisofhazardous naturalprocesses circulation. their cyclonic for This isimportant inthedurationof consistent withvariations precipitation sumsintheseregions are As shownin Fig. ofannual 8–11,fluctuations Figure 8.Fluctuation ofthetotalannualduration circulation ofcyclonic over coast theBlackSea of Figure 9.Fluctuation ofthetotalannualprecipitation inSochi Krasnodarsky region groups were identified basedontheanalysis ratios ofthedurationscirculation Three circulation epochswithdifferent future. analyzed processes inthepresent andnear degree ofhazard fromof increased activity for 1899–2008may beusedto establish a ofthedurationtheseECM fluctuations CONCLUSIONS 005.08.2010 16:19:44 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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The average annualairtemperature over the average for theentire (1899–2008). period processes 8through (types 12)from the northern annual durationofthemeridional bythedeviationoftotal was marked The firstcirculation epoch(1899–1915) present time. the larger circulation epochfrom 1899to the these epochshave theclimate determine of Hemisphere; circulation over theNorthern ofatmospheric fluctuations of long-term 3 9 Figure 10.Fluctuation ofthetotalannualduration circulation ofthecyclonic over theAltai region Figure 11.Fluctuation ofthetotalannual precipitation inBarnaul average for 1961–1990.Especiallysignificant wasaboveHemisphere the thisperiod during annual airtemperature over theNorthern from the1899–2008average. The average annual durationofthezonal circulation bylongdeviationsofthetotal was marked The secondcirculation epoch(1916–1956) standard period. 1961–1990 accepted by period WMO asthe lower thantheaverage temperature for the was Hemisphere this period during Northern 005.08.2010 16:19:46 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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4 0 southern (1997–2006). southern (1988–1997),andnorthern- southern (1960–1969), processes:meridional northern decades withthemaximaldurationof hasthree extreme is themostunstable. It circulation meridional epoch The modern withthedeviationof0,163°C. warmest 0,141°C (1938). The year 1944wasthe Hemisphere this decadewas during air temperature over theNorthern positive deviationoftheaverage annual circulations: 230days/year. The greatest of thegeneralized zonal group of was thelongesttotal annualduration circulation epoch(1930–1939),there decadeofthezonal theextreme In and –0,542°Сin1917). annual airtemperatures (–0,523°Сin1907 negative deviationsfrom theaverage (274 days/year) withthemostsignificant processes wasthelongestnorthern duration ofthetotal annualmeridional Hemisphere, thewhen intheNorthern circulation epoch, northern meridional decadeof1906–1915theextreme All processes have the intensified during 1998 (0,608°С)andin2005(0,625°С). from theaverage for 1961–1990were in Hemispheretemperature over theNorthern positive deviationsoftheaverage annual Hemisphere. the Northern The greatest the average annualairtemperature over a simultaneoussubstantialincrease in processesduration ofthesouthern with was thegreatest increase intheannual 1981–1997ofthis epoch,thereDuring in different oftheHemisphere. sectors three to outlets four cyclone southern by Hemisphere wassupported Northern circulation over13), whencyclone the processes southern (typethe meridional deviations ofthetotal annualdurationof (1957 –present time),there were positive thethirdDuring circulating epoch as history oftheArctic.”“warming was referredlatitudes andthisperiod to in over intemperatureshigh rise wasobserved target circulation ofatmosphere andclimate circulation that epochsinmodelingefforts to of considerthecharacter isimportant It Hemisphere. of thenorthern hazardous naturalevents indifferent regions a result, theincrease inreoccurrence ofthe the airtemperatures, precipitation, and, as Hemisphereof causefluctuations Northern circulationatmospheric processes ofthe oftheduration The fluctuations Hemisphere.on average for theNorthern an increase intheannualtotal precipitation 1960–1969,thereSimilar to theperiod was positiveperiod) deviationof0,625°Cin2005. had themaximal(for the entire observation with thedeviationof0,357°C. This decade Hemisphere temperature oftheNorthern withdecrease intheaveragemarked annual in 2000(i.e., 346days/year). That year was 319 days andhasreached itsmaximalvalue processes onaverage for thedecadewas a result, thedurationofmeridional processes; as northern of themeridional decreased withtheincrease intheduration processed southern of themeridional 1998–2008,thetotal annualduration In 1998, 0,608°C). occurred immediately thisdecade(in after deviation ofairtemperatures inXX century of 201days in1989. The maximalpositive processes wasnoted, withthemaximum southernduration ofthemeridional 1988–1997,themaximaltotal annualIn fronts.atmospheric increased asaresult ofthedevelopment of Hemisphere precipitation over thenorthern –0,294°C in1976. The average annualtotal with thedeviationsof–0,222°Cin1964and Hemisphere decreased over theNorthern grow. The average annualairtemperature valueforterm 1899–2008andcontinuedto processes in1963reached itsaverage long- southern The durationofthemeridional (268 and274days/year, respectively). comparable to thelevel for 1906–1915 processes was northern of themeridional 1960–1969,thetotal annualduration In 005.08.2010 16:19:47 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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3. Chaplygina, A.S. (1961). Statistical analysis of alternations of types of atmospheric Chaplygina, ofatmospheric oftypes A.S.(1961).Statisticalanalysisofalternations 3. Byshev, V.I., Neiman, V.G. andRomanov, Yu.A (2006).Ontheessentialdifferences between 2. . Dzerdzeevskii, B.L. (1956).Problem circulation ofthegeneralatmospheric offluctuations 6. Dzerdzeevskii, B.L. works. circulation (1975).Selected Generalatmospheric andclimate. M. 5. N.Kand M.M.,Kononova, Chernavskaya, Val`chuk, T.E. (2006).Correlation between 4. Byshev, V.I., Neiman, N.K., Kononova, V.G. andRomanov, 1. Yu.A (2004).Quantitative Hemisphere. and precipitation over theNorthern ofairtemperatures fluctuations impact ofcirculationbecause alternations epochs 8. Dzerdzeevskii, B.L. (1968). Circulation mechanisms in the Northern HemisphereDzerdzeevskii, B.L. (1968).Circulation mechanismsintheNorthern 8. Dzerdzeevskii, B. (1962).Fluctuation ofclimate andofgeneralcirculation ofthe 7. 10. circulationDzerdzeevskii, ofatmospheric B.L. over ofcharacteristics (1970).Comparison 9. Dzerdzeevskii, B.L. (1969). Climatic epochs in the twentieth century andsomecomments Dzerdzeevskii, B.L. century (1969).Climaticepochsinthetwentieth 9. 4 1 circulation types. Oceanology temperature over theoceansandcontinents. ofthesurface the long-scalevariations № 3,pp. 315–326 and climate. A.I. In: 288p. (inRussian). Nauka, 1640–1645. 1899–2003 during variability hemisphere circulation andparameteratmospheric processes ofsolar over thenorthern No 12,pp1832–1843.(inRussian). Assessment oftheParameters ofSea–AirSystem Climate Variability. atmosphere in20-thcentury. of dynamicclimatology – Hemisphere andsomeproblems atmosphere latitudesoftheNorthern inextra-tropical 109–122. (inRussian). of Atmosphere Hemisphere andover itssectors. the Northern 49–60. (In Russian with English title, summary andcontents). RussianwithEnglishtitle, summary (In Geophysical Committee ofthePresidium oftheUSSRAcademy ofSciences. M.pp. 7–14. on theanalysisofpastclimates. andcontents). RussianwithEnglishsummary Sciences. M.240. (In Geophysical Committee ofthePresidiumand Interagency oftheUSSRAcademy of International geophysicalyear. , Vol. 46,№2,pp. 147–158. . Institute ofGeography. Institute oftheUSSR Academy ofSciencesandInteragency Izvestia oftheUSSR AcademyIzvestia ofSciences. Physics ofseaandatmosphere Voeikov andproblems ofmodernclimatology Tellus Advances inSpace Research (JASR), Data ofmeteorological studies.Circulation of Atmosphere Institute ofGeography Institute oftheUSSRAcademy ofSciences , Vol. 14,№3,pp. 328–336. Quaternary geologyand climate Quaternary 08-05-00475. Foundation for BasicResearch (RFBR), project This research wasfundedbytheRussian ACKNOWLEDGEMENT. Data ofmeteorologicalData studies. Circulation  . L.,Gidrometeoizdat, pp. . Washington, 1969,pp. Volume 37,Issue8,pp. Oceanology, Vol. 44, 005.08.2010 16:19:47 5 , . . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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4 2 20. Kononova, N.K. and Malneva, I.V. andMalneva, ofatmospheric N.K. ofchangeincharacter Kononova, (2003).Influence 20. 19. Hemisphere andinRussia (2007).Naturaldisasters intheNorthern N.K. Kononova, 18. Circulation (2009).Fluctuations ofAtmospheric over theNorthern N.K. Kononova, (2005). 17. N.K. Kononova, Tendencies circulation, ofatmospheric air ofchangecharacter 16. ofatmosphere variations (2003).Studiesoflong-term circulation inthe N.K. Kononova, Hemisphere (2009).ClassificationofCirculation oftheNorthern Mechanisms N.K. Kononova 15. Hemisphere. weather Dailysynopticseries. maps. New 14. Historical Northern York: Weather Es.Ya13. Gruza,G.Vand. Rankova, ofclimate and changes:state, (2004).Detection variability Easton, C.(1928). 12. Winters inthe Western Europe Dzerdzeevskii, B.L., Kurganskaya, V.M. and Z.M(1946).Classificationofcirculation 11. Vitvitskaya, 22. Mokrov, E.G.,Seliverstov,Yu.G. N.K.,. Kononova, and. Tareeva,. A.M.(2005).Relationof and. I.V(2007). Malneva, N.K. Kononova, The estimationofmudflowandlandslidehazard21. circulation on activity ofdangerouscirculation naturalprocesses. onactivity summary, andcontents). Analysis Risk XX–XXI processes. withmacro-circulation andtheirconnection centuries ru. Hemisphere inXX –theBeginning ofXXI Century. http://www.atmospheric-circulation. and Climate. of XIICongress ofRussianGeographical Society, Vol. 5:World Continental Ocean, Water temperatures precipitation andatmospheric indifferent naturalregions ofRussia. English summary, figure captionsandcontents). of ECMfor 1986–2002. Hemisphere ofalternation withapplicationinglaciology.Northern Appendix–History foreword, introduction,conclusionandcontents). Geography. Moscow. Voentechinizdat, 372p. (inRussianwithEnglishtitle, summary, (Ed).RussianAcademybased onB.L. Dzerdzeevskii. ofSciences. Shmakin of Institute Bureau. 1899–1948. ofclimate).extremeness Meteorology andHydrology, N4,pp. 50–66(inRussian). Russian). Meteorology Works InstitutesoftheUSSR Hydrometeorological ofScientific Service ofsynopticseasons. Hemisphere andcharacteristics mechanisms over theNorthern avalanche releases with atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere.avalanche releases circulation withatmospheric intheNorthern CIR Publisher ofKorean Publishing Company, Seoul, pp. 180–183. Reduction”. Geotechnical Symposium “Geotechnical Prevention EngineeringforDisaster and Islandinthenearest decade. on theSakhalin № 4,M.,p. RussianwithEnglishsummary, andcontents). 52–62.(In July 24–26, 2007, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia. Kazakhstan Geotechnical Society, July24–26,2007, Russia.Kazakhstan Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, . Issue21.Central Forecast Institute. M.-L.Gidrometizdat, Moscow, 80p. (in , Vol. 4,№1,Hydrometeorological Safety, pp. RussianwithEnglish 49–72.(In SaintPetersburg, pp. 344–349.(inRussian) Data ofGlaciologicalData studies . Leyde. French). (In The Proceedings of the International , Issue95,pp. Russianwith 45–65.(In Problems of Safety andEmergenciesProblems ofSafety , Series , Series Problems of 2. Synoptic Works 005.08.2010 16:19:47 Data Data 5 . 0 8 . 2 , 0 1 0

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28. Climatic Research ofEastAnglia):Dataonairtemperatures: Unit(University http://www. 27. Titkova, T.B., Konono andN.K. 26. Processes ofAtmospheric (1984).Dynamics over the Savina, S.S.andL.VKhmelevskaya Rubinshtein, E.S.andL.G.Polozova.25. (1966). The Nature ofLong-Term24. Fluctuations Discharge. ofRiver ofthelastclimate 1939. coolingafter A.(1962).AMystery 23. Kosiba, 4 3 Akad. Ser. Nauk, Geogr., (1988).Circulation Factors N.K. Kononova, ofFluctuations ofCereal Crop Yield. (in RussianwithEnglishsummary). of Meteorological intheArctic. extremes Circulation ofAtmospheric andCirculation mechanisms (2007).Dynamics N.K. Kononova, with Englishtitle, summary, foreword, introduction,conclusionandcontents). cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ RussianwithEnglishsummary). 1, 35-46.(In accumulation andgeneralatmosphere circulation. Russian withEnglishsummary, andcontents). Geophysical Committee ofthePresidium oftheUSSRAcademy ofSciences. M.146p. (In Atmosphere Hemisphere inXX Century.Northern 268 p. (inRussian). 336p. Branch,Novosibirsk, (inRussian). Siberian Vol. 33,№1.vol. 33,No1.(inPolish). captions andcontents). of Glaciological Studies . Institute ofGeography. Institute oftheUSSRAcademy ofSciencesandInteragency No 1 , Issue99,pp. RussianwithEnglishsummary, figure 94–98.(In , pp. 15-26(inRussianwithEnglishsummary). Geography. Moscow. Voentechinizdat, 372p. (inRussian (Ed).RussianAcademy ofSciences.Shmakin of Institute Hemisphere basedonB.L. Dzerdzeevskii of theNorthern (2009) N.K. Kononova publications: Main circulation.ru). Circulationis Atmospheric (http://www.atmospheric- she received herPh.D. degree in1965.Area ofinterest Academy ofSciences(scientificadvisor–B.L. Dzerdzeevskii); graduate ofGeography studentattheInstitute oftheUSSR “geographer-climatologist”. 1957–1961,shewasapost- In of M.V. Lomonosov State in1957asa University Moscow Nina Kononova va. (2006). Connection between anomaliesinsnow between va. (2006).Connection Data ofmeteorologicalData studies. №9. Izv. Ross.Izv. Akad. Ser. Nauk, Geogr., Modern ClimateChange. graduated from theFaculty ofGeography Classification ofCirculation Mechanisms Izvestia ofRAS Izvestia

(1976). I.P. Drujinina(Ed.) “Nauka”, Classical. Geography. , Series , Series Gidrometeoizdat. L. N 6,pp. 26–41 Geography

Circulation of Izv. USSRIzv. , № . 005.08.2010 16:19:47 5

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4 4 place-focused post-suburban politics.place-focused growthurban more inlinewithproactive will restructure themodesofgoverning as well asemerging residents’ movements growing demandfor newinfrastructure, “local” city. isyet to beseenwhethera It initiatives thatare from disconnected profit-makingfuelled byopportunistic “growth machine”, is growth inKhimki the Western modelsof “edge city” and case shares somecommonalitieswith The paperargues thatwhiletheRussian differentbetween are actors considered. andtherelationshipedge ofMoscow ideologies thegrowth driving onthe a fast-growing area. The forces and limits “satellite city” andmore recently aformer off- on thecaseofKhimki, ofMoscow, basedon theperiphery development andplace-making urban economy case? The paperconsiders growthof urban applyinthetransition “post-suburbia” andassociated models To dotheideasof whatextent “edge city”, 1 3 2 Oleg Golubchikov * Corresponding author Gory,Russia; Leninskie Moscow, 119899; Tel. +7(495)9394263;Email:[email protected] Email: [email protected] 22 Gordon Street, London WC1H0QB; Tel: +44(0)2076797594; Email: [email protected] Oxford, ChristChurch, StAldates, UK. Oxford, OX 11DP; Tel. +44(0)1865285070; ABSTRACT MOSCOW IN THE METROPOLITAN CONTEXT OF AND THE EMERGENCE OF “EDGE CITY” POST-SUBURBIA: MACHINE GROWTH Senior research Senior fellow, Faculty ofGeography, Moscow State University, Moscow, Professor, ofPlanning, School University College London, Bartlett London, UK; * Research fellow, ofGeography School andtheEnvironment, University ofOxford, 1 *, NicholasA.Phelps Corresponding author 2 andAlla Makhrova introduction of the market economy resultedintroduction ofthemarket fromthe city Western regimes, the produced asomewhat different of type While thelogic ofsocialisturbanization of Khimki. ofMoscow,context basedonthecasestudy specifically focusing onthemetropolitan establish someconsiderationsinthisrespect case. The interest ofthispaperistherefore to growth may travel to thetransition economy et al, 1995]andassociated modelsofurban city” [Garreau, 1991], “post-suburbia” [Kling for example, howeasilytheideasof “edge from associated research. Littleisknown, beyond theseregions remain absent fairly spaces America), Europe andNorth (Western identified inanumberof Western contexts have ofurbanisation patterns been While theprocesses of “post-suburban” city-region. Moscow Khimki; INTRODUCTION KEYWORDS:

suburbanization; satellite city; satellitesuburbanization; city; 3 . 005.08.2010 16:19:48 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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form ofsecond-homedevelopments rather “suburbanisation” a hastaken inMoscow has muchlocalspecificity. For example, 2005]. Furthermore, whatlooksfamiliar [BadyinaandGolubchikov,gentrification –arecognizablethe newrich of pattern renovated andincreasingly colonized by areasin parallelcentralurban have been use hadgrown inthe1990sandstill twice the Due to suburbanisation “built-up” land have beenunfolding asarapidexplosion. Russia, theprocesses transformation ofurban inthepreviousto suburbanization decades. In metropolitan edgesare sometimesopposed regeneration andtransformations on theUSliterature In bothinner-city of localenvironmental groups. aswell asrepresentativesacademic experts, developers,private chambers ofcommerce, Oblastlevel,the Moscow Federal authorities, planningbodiesat local officersinKhimki, with almost 50semi-structured interviews in summer/autumn2008,whichinvolved ourfieldwork during collected on material anddrawing based onthecasestudyofKhimki ofMoscow, areasof urban attheperiphery ofdevelopment andplace-making practice thispaperwe considerthepoliticsand In forces. and thelocalcombinationofdifferent more closelyatlocalcontingency looking canbeinvestigatedand politicalagency by strategies bypurposeful driven ofeconomic “structural” forces itis andto whatextent changeispredeterminedurban bycertain momentum ofgrowth andattendant larger cities. To thiscentrifugal whatextent hierarchy,urban ofthe aswell asperipheries downthe have fallenuponthecitiesfurther However, eventually theprocesses ofchange and commercialization [Bater etal., 1998]. post-industrial transformation, tertiarization their innerareas were firstto accommodate Larger cities, suchasMoscow, andespecially ofcities. andmorphology the function processesin afloodofnewurban changing OF MOSCOW URBAN PROCESSES ON THE PERIPHERY 4 5 a centre withafew ofalarger other district Oblast.Historically, hasbeen Moscow thecity belt”, althoughitadministratively belongsto of “satellite cities” inits ofMoscow “near wastraditionallyconsidered asone Khimki see ofKhimki Tableperformance 1). (forwest ofMoscow thesocio-economic an environmentally favourable zone to the Fourthly, islocated in of Khimki. the city administratively belongsto theterritory Sheremetyevo, whichalsonowairport to Russia’sMoscow majorinternational located nearandonthemainroute from St Petersburg railway. Thirdly, is Khimki and Moscow- as Leningrad Motorway) PetersburgMoscow-St (known motorway includingthe linkscrossing Khimki, transport with it.Secondly, there are Russia’s major andiswell adjacent to connected Moscow having afavourable location. Firstly, itis seenas isoften these processes. Khimki thecombinationof Oblast to experience wasoneofthefirstcitiesinMoscow Khimki the Russiancapital. intensified residentialaround construction forms ofdevelopment are alsoparalleledby 2007]. andMolodikova, Makhrova These [e.g.of Moscow RudolphandBrade, 2005; back-offices, emerge inthenearest cities employments, includingoffice-based of development, suchasmajormodern But, increasingly, more complexforms runningfrom Moscow.major motorways development ofwarehouses alongthe region aswell surrounding the Moscow), Oblast–aseparate administrativeMoscow and ofMoscow border theCity between corresponds to theadministrative most art (whichfor the Motorway Orbital the Moscow the development ofshoppingmallsalong growth. by atleast,thiswasdriven Initially ofintensified somepatterns experiencing metropolitan ofMoscow areafringe isnow theAlong withquasi-suburbanisation, al., 2008]. et place[Makhrova also increasingly taking “permanent” residential is suburbanisation residences,than permanent althoughmore 005.08.2010 16:19:48 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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4 6 1 motorways” (Ladygina andterritory, Federal junctions transport asitisallinterpenetrated byMoscow city noted: interviewees “it’s complicated avery Asunder Moscow’s oneofour jurisdiction. separated bytheterritory into parts, two becamedivided District result, theKhimki itinto itsborders.than incorporating As a grewhence Moscow aroundrather thecity was anoff-limitscity, basedondefence; to Moscow.District This isbecauseKhimki oftheKhimki oftheterritory over alarge part ofSovietRussia handed Council ofMinisters 1984,the In settlements andthecountryside. Table indicators for 1.Mainsocio-economic Khimki can avoid making superficial comparisons comparisons superficial can avoid making district withinKhimki airport the Sherymetyvo No onewhotravels to andfrom to Moscow total populationofabout180thousand. unified ofKhimki” District “Urban withthe becameamalgamated asthe and ruralparts area whichusedto consistofseveral urban changed itsstatusandthewholedistrict District to amunicipalreform, theKhimki City ofMoscow,City Moscow, 26August 2008. Research for Institute andDevelopment theGeneralPlan ofthe Studio for Oblast, Zone and Moscow Suburban ofMoscow POST-SOCIALIST GROWTH MACHINE?POST-SOCIALIST GROWTH Interview with Olga Ladygina, Deputy HeadoftheProject withOlgaLadygina, Deputy Interview Source: Mosoblkomstat (2000–2007)a, Mosoblkomstat (2000–2007)b. (2000–2007)a,Mosoblkomstat Source: Mosoblkomstat Capital investment, RRpercapita(excl. small Accumulated foreign investment, millionUS e osn opee q .prcpt .207 .404 .217 1.24 1.75 0.72 0.44 0.84 0.76 0.42 New housingcompleted sq. m.percapita vrg aay R(xl ml nepie)5747669761,4 5411,9 22,919 18,898 15,471 11,846 9,716 7,616 5,764 Average salary, RR(excl. smallenterprises) mlye(xl ml nepie) ,0s 334. 745. 526. 65.6 61.4 55.2 52.2 47.4 43.5 53.3 Employee (excl. 1,000s smallenterprises), xsighuig q e aia2. 582. 682. 9131.3 29.1 27.5 26.8 26.5 25.8 26.4 Existing housing, sq. mpercapita ealtroe,R e aia2,4 3073,4 5698,7 114 185,370 11,1447 81,175 65,669 32,743 33,007 21,144 Retail turnover, RRpercapita adsrie,R e aia6908261,2 3961,4 55968,686 55,559 18,747 13,966 11,120 8,246 6,970 Paid RRpercapita services, ouain ,0s165169176187197101181.0 180.1 179.7 178.7 177.6 176.9 176.5 Population, 1,000s irto,‰1. 221. 18901. 19.8 12.5 9.0 11.8 13.7 12.2 11.1 ‰ Migration, enterprises) dollars 1 ). In January 2006,due January ). In 0120 0320 0520 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 ,8 0053,7 4613,9 70481,830 37,094 36,396 34,661 32,877 10,075 9,988 8. 6. 5. 8. ,2. ,2. 3,424.7 2,129.9 1,226.7 787.1 552.1 262.6 187.3 almost entirely unimpededbycivilsociety. machine”. isalso activity Development influences thecompositionofgrowth the localadministrationandthisstrongly the post-socialist case. The power core is growth politicalin agenda isprimarily 560) acknowledge nature ofthepro “The reveals. (2005: As KulscarandDomokos concealmoremay actually thanit toto travel, theconceptsability butit growththe term machineistestimony development. urban The conjoiningof ofthepoliticsUSclassic description useofMolotch’smachine –making (1976) to invoke post-socialist theterm growth prompted (2005) KulscarandDomokos cities inpost-socialist has countries ofmajorUS. Growth intheperipheries forces sector of private apparent inthe to thesorts beingsubject accessibility nodalpointofcarbasedthis suburban is tempting thereforeIt to consider rates (Figure 1). recently,very rapid were being builtatvery blocksandretail outletsthat,until apartment what isaratherchaoticmixofofficeand allows oneampletimeto gaze outonto congestion onthestretchThe heavy ofroad environmentwith theedgecity oftheUS. 005.08.2010 16:19:48 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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brokerage described: from acommercialinterviewee property tend to comefrom asone sector theprivate Certainly, theinitiative, asintheUS,does development ofexchange interms values. and alliedto thisthemotivationof revolve around thespeedofdevelopment development intheUSdoexist. urban These to andprocesses patterns Some similarities of control ofthecommunities. centre ontheexercise ofpower and absence ofgrowth, astheirmotivations interestsof pro-growth would existinthe to suggestthatpost-socialist constellations Both ofwhichleadsKulcsarandDomokos 4 15. Aeroport Komplex. 16.Aeroplaza. Gate. Plaza.19.Businesspark,Lavochkina 17.Khimki 18.Khimki 7 Ul. 16. 20.Olympus. 21.Aeroshare Express. 22.Sheremetyevo Cargo. 23.National Logistic Company Centre. 12.Sherrizone. 13.Businesspark,Mashkinskoye Shosse, BusinessPark. build. 1.14.Khimki Khimki. 24. Khimki Praedium. 24.Khimki Khimki. 25.Sheremetyevo Warehouse Complex. 26.Sheremetyevo Industrial shown on the map: 1. Mega-Khimki. 2.Liga.3.Ramstor.shown onthemap:1.Mega-Khimki. 4.Levoberezhnyy shoppingandentertain- 9. Office centre, Yubileynyy Prospect, 60a.10.Mercedes Club. Benz 11.Sheremetyevskiy Business Figure 1. The spatialandnew development structure Development inKhimki. projects projects ment centre. City. 5.Khimki 6.BigBoxes. 7.Country Park. 8.Office centre, Moskovskaya Ul. 21. Park. 27. Terminal Europe. 28. Vesna-M. 29. Vega-Khimki permissions inprocess.permissions (DTZ to buildandgotthe the landandstarted for construction. They justcameouton instance, wasbuiltwithoutany permission andaskforgovernment permissions. IKEA,for by developers. cometo Developers the isstimulated Region. orMoscow It district Regionorthis orthatMoscow suburb strategywell ofdeveloping thought-out As for there thegovernment, isnoonegood 2008 (inEnglish). 2 the municipallevel inRussiaresponds to systems atalllevelregulatory andespecially Here, anditsplanning government Interview with DTZ property consultants, withDTZ Moscow, property 20August Interview 2 ). 005.08.2010 16:19:48 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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4 8 3 (Gaige one informed interviewee considered of asperiod capitalism’‘wild by system inmore recentthe market years, was until newlegislation effectively completing (including foreign investment). direct This time, retail businesses anddistribution services, established andnewfinancialbusiness individuals andcommercial premises from huge suppressed demandfor housingfrom rights, andalthoughincomplete, released a 1990sprovidedearly for property private way, 1990s. intheearly Legislation inthe ushered in,albeitinaratherincomplete systema newlycreated whichwas market cow, 2008 (inEnglish). 28October into acentralizedinscribed institutional planningwas The Sovietmodelofurban ofRussia. in thecontext planning policiesplay aratherdifferent role byfirstlydiscussingwhythese dissimilarities exploring we willstart section, the next here become pronounced. dissimilarities In interests. sector of publicandprivate And policies becomeafocal pointfor coalitions development strategies, andplanning As suchmunicipaleconomic jurisdiction. withinaparticular value oflandandproperty centredpatterns intheexchange onuplifts and revenues thatattend thedevelopment coalesceoverand publicsectors theprofits both parties. oftheprivate The jointactions on elaborated aslocaldependency further due to whatCox (1988)have andMair based businessinterests, are place-based sector,officials andprivate usuallyland interests ofmunicipalpoliticiansand [Logan 1987], themutual andMolotch, formulation andinsubsequentelaborations appear.dissimilarities Molotch’s In original process relates to apoliticsofplace, major move onto considerhowthedevelopment of theUSgrowth machine. However, oncewe development mayurban well beamutation thisrespect,post-socialist processesIn of above (FigureKhimki 2). oftheIKEAdevelopmentin thedescription in THE ROLE OF THE PLANNING SYSTEM Interview with GeraldGaige, Partner, Interview and Ernst Young, Mos- 3 ) as implied ) asimplied we don’t have to imposeour the right andthey wantthoseplacesto looklike will have theirownvisionabouthow live inthoseplaces20or 30 years time regime:to themarket “people whowill that such “visions” were notaccording OblastPlanning Boardof Moscow argued in20–30years,should looklike thehead Oblasthow individualcitiesinMoscow visions atlocalorregional governments places. whetherthereWhen asked were any approach coherentand purposeful to make zoning results inalackofcomprehensive based planningandpro-development ofsector- This combinationofthelegacy 2006]. Kok, post-socialist citiesinEurope [e.g. Tasan- forms, whichare familiarto many other development-ledtaken andopportunistic Planning Russiahasincreasingly inmodern narrower development interests. rights that oflandusezoning by underpinned comprehensive conceptofplanningto Russian town planningfrom amore theaccentof thus re-orientating Russia stresses therole oflegalzoning, Code Development ofthe 2004Urban alternative.a reallyImportantly, workable institution ofplanningwithoutproviding but instead considerablyemasculated the have, however, notsolved thisproblem relation planning to theinstitutionofurban [Golubchikov, ofreforms 2004].Aseries in development ineffectiveadministrative-led ofSovietplanningfor principles inherited crisis, asthenewrequirements mademany planningfellRussian urban into astate of and politicaleconomicliberalization, reformsWith theemergence ofmarket their locationinoneplace. integrate of different bythevirtue sectors largely “sectoral”, planswere whileurban to down planningprocess wasthatit production. The implicationofthistop- basedontheneedsofto some norms and green spaces, wasallocated according infrastructure, includinghousing, services of socialandeconomicregulation. Social setting andlanddevelopment waspart 005.08.2010 16:19:49 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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4 views ontheirwishes” (Frolov Moscow, 2008. 29October ment for Architecture Oblast, Planning ofMoscow andUrban compromised byplanningresponsibilities isalsosignificantlytheir jurisdictions to integrate ofplanningfor aspects Furthermore, for thecapacity municipalities among politicalleadersandlocalofficials. planningatthemunicipalscaleterritorial remains littleappreciation ofthevalue inthatthere legacy have animportant planning oftheSovieteracontinuesto times. Thus, thecentralized sector-based infrastructureasinSovietof transport to theplaces, mostlyintermsfunctionality rather asthetools ofproviding thebasic instruments of “making places”, but plansnotasthe urban of considering the neoliberalideologywithtradition this reflectstheuneasycombinationof those responsible for planning. However, paradoxical to hearsuchadiscoursefrom 4 Interview withAlexandrFrolov, Interview Depart- HeadoftheMain 9 Figure 2. The IKEAcentre was oneofthesignature development forintheprevious projects Khimki decade andhasbecome oneofitslandmarks 4 ). It may be). It estate company interests withdesigns on mayor real hasbeenresistant to powerful exist. There issomesuggestion thatKhimki’s planningatmunicipal level do territorial For some, atleast,aspirationsto improve study city. process basedonananalysisofourcase different interests inthedevelopment more detailsthepower relations between inthat we to considering shouldturn and releaser ishere ofdevelopable land. It has ratherbecomeanunpredictableholder provincial andlocallevel. Russianlocalstate ofplacebuildingatnational,as part coordinator andpromoter ofdevelopment with Chinawhere theState isseenasa levels. The situationcontrast,for example, Federal,between regional andmunicipal and financingthatremain fragmented IN KHIMKI OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT INTERESTS THE INTERPLAY AND BALANCE 005.08.2010 16:19:49 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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5 0 5 (Pozdnevhis municiaplity from the planning gain extracted fromfrom theplanninggainextracted evident atthemunicipallevel have come thatarechief possibilitiesfor placemaking which theysit.As aresult, someofthe weak positionrelative to theregions in Russia allmunicipalitiesare inarelatively duetocapacity. thetaxsystem fact in In development oughtto have ahealthy fiscal suchrapid experiencing Khimki like One mightassumethatamunicipality (Pozdnev). often have. happensvery It we withthepolicy decisions thatcontradict happensthatwe are forceddown. It to take coming here turn whowe cannotactually ofthecity.attractiveness There are people The problem isrelated to the investment mayor putit: groups withstrong As backing. deputy interest involving bothlarge development ofmoney,or availability butwithvested seems to to benotonlyrestricted thelack land use. Butthepressure for development a compatiblecluster ofofficeandretail considered to disruptwhatcouldhave been discontent aboutthisoutcome, whichis businessesrevealand neighbouring the withbothlocaladministration interviews development bythedeveloper PIK. The forplanning permission large residential However, theplotwassuddenlygranted a newcommercial centre. andcommunity inthegeneralplanfor originally earmarked Park. development –Country The site was to themunicipality’snext firstclassAoffice and bytheLeningradMoscow Motorway from location attheentranceofKhimki development ofapreviously vacantprime dominance ofthelatter, isexemplified bythe local plansandfinancialinterests, withclear or Federal politicallevels. The clashbetween attheregionalon theirpoliticalconnections outset ofliberalizationinRussiabycapitalising vast landbankstheyhave acquired atthe realize onthe development opportunities seems thatthesecompaniesare ableto 2008. Administration, 30October Architecture andLandUse, Khimki Interview with Dmitriy Pozdnev, withDmitriy Interview Mayor for Deputy Building, 5 ). Nevertheless it ). Nevertheless (Mikhaylov nearMoscow,is very it’s politicized city.” avery suggested, into accountthatKhimki “Taking many otherlocalities. As oneinterviewee than politics rathermore inKhimki active mayKhimki’s to make Moscow accessibility Yet, insomerespectsthiscoupledwith spatial inequalities, orofthecosts growth. to, for instance, socialand issuesofrising grass-roots orcivicgroup relating action, popular discourse, andhardly any major that itoffers meanthat there islittleorno economic growth andthepersonalwealth coupled withacelebrationofunbridled demand for housingthatexistsinMoscow development. pentupThe enormous inequalities andthecostsofrapidurban foror concern social issuessuchasrising in whichasyet there islittleunderstanding officials andpoliticiansoperate inacontext For anumber ofreinforcing reasons, local (Figuredevelopments inKhimki 3). promised for majorresidentialservices struggling to financetheamenitiesand according are tonow oneinterviewee from even thelargest ofdevelopers who to affect theplanninggainextracted Even so, thepresent promises financialcrisis of kindergartens andschools(Maximov of kindergartens andthebuildingpublic spacesandparks so farto theprovision orrefurbishment of and farfrom hasextended guaranteed. It sofarismodestplanning gainextracted this, onewould have to say thatthe the form ofmunicipalhousing. Beyond being handedover in to themunicipality inKhimki of allunitsflatsconstructed quite significant with20%(andupto 25%) hasbeenthe planninggainextracted developers. For residential developments, activists: interests, ashighlighted byenvironmental bydifferentof suchconflicts development interests thanthefabrication preservationist ofdeveloper and was lessagenuineconflict 7 6 30 October 2008. 30 October Administration, Khimki, Khimki ofKhimki, District Economy, 2008 Administration, 30October Khimki Interview with Valeriy Interview Mikhaylov, ChiefArchitect oftheUrban with Interview Yuriy Maximov, HeadoftheCommittee for the 7 ). hereWhat wasbeingdescribed 005.08.2010 16:19:52 5 . 0 8 6 . ). 2 0 1 0

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8 money...will bring (Mikhail some development oftheinfrastructure that and maybe atthecostofresidents butwith to thesegreenmaximum destruction zones them meansfor money-mining. This means up theeconomy ofthesezones andmake there are theinterests thatwantto pump environment...a normal Ontheotherhand, who wantto andtheyneed live insuburbs On theonehand, there are thosepeople Defence Movement, Moscow, 21August, 2008 engaged inany politicaleconomy ofplace business andcivicgroups are becoming Yet, thisisratherlimited evidencethat been vocal atplanningmeetings(Mikhaylov). (Pozdnev) andanother that thepublichave improvements to theexitinghousingstock of interms ofthemunicipality expectations that thepopulationdidhave rising municipality. commented Oneinterviewee someinfluenceonthe hasexerted of Khimki comparatively highlyeducated population There issomeevidenceto suggestthatthe 5 Interview with Mikhail and Evgeniya Chirikova, Khimki Forest Khimki andEvgeniya Chirikova, withMikhail Interview 1 Figure ofmany 3.Some new residential complexes before builtinKhimki 2009 8 ) political leadersare constrainedbypatronage prevails atpresent isoneinwhichlocal The problem isthesystem ofpoliticsthat agendas across thegreater area. Moscow level politiciansare evolving distinctive As yet there islittleindicationthatmunicipal thatitwould present. opportunities isdriven bythenewdevelopment suspect whichthey ofKhimki part lies intheeastern ofMoscow’s greenbeltarea andpart that ofamajorforestof thepotential destruction to raiseawarenesspeople have beentrying Asmallbuttenacious groupbottleneck. of Federal government inorder to relieve this opposition to aby-passproposed bythe relates to environmental andcivicgroup issuesactually regardingaction transport US andEurope. theonlyorganized Indeed, improvements, aswould bethecasein regardinggovernment theneedfor transport degree andnoreal evidenceoflobbying having becomeorganized to any significant is, for example, littlesign ofbusinessinterests with any substantialdegree ofimpact. There 005.08.2010 16:19:52 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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5 2 9 is thelongterm strategy (Gewert have. Butwhatreallyadifference willmake withthefundsthey so on.Ithinktheytry that thefootball stadium isabitbetter and aresee thattheparks greener andnicer have donelittlecosmeticsfor thecitizens to grip along-term butsofarthey needs to take Oblast OblastandMoscow with theMoscow quite administrationwork closely Khimki strategy: any place-shaping hadprovidedgovernment littleintheway of relationship municipalandregional between this a majorcompany operatinginKhimki stadium. However, from to oneobserver andfootballsuch asanewbasketball some significant flagshipcapitalinvestments and itspoliticalleadershiphasensured and itsleadershipto theOblastgovernment administration relationship oftheKhimki for Oblast’ Moscow (Maximov). The close to bethe one interviewee, ‘locomotive isconsidered, according tois thatKhimki inthisrespect Oblast, ofmore importance one ofthelargest municipalbudgetsinthe the level ofthegovernor”. has Whilst Khmki operatebecause majoreconomicactors at influence onlocaleconomicdevelopment, Oblasthave ofMoscow relativelydistricts little Rudolph andBrade’s (2005:139)argue “the Asleadership atahighertierofgovernment. sense ofplaceare allocated often bypolitical Thus “opportunities” for thebuildingofa relationships with theregional governor. Khimki, 6November 2008(inEnglish) Khimki, IKEARealEstate RussiaandUkraine, Operations andMarketing, Khimki hasacomplicated border andis Khimki in thepost-Socialist era.Furthermore, as expansion adjustment to industrial urban location,withonlysome time ofindustry into municipalitiesrepresent afreezing in ofthesestate enterprises the insertion ofDefence, still controlled bytheMinistry aerospace. As many are oftheseenterprises related state enterprises key to missilesand wasoriginally builtasalocationfor Khimki of localoreven regional administration. planning whichare beyond thecontrol There are alsoobstaclesfor theterritorial Interview with Herman Gewert, Gewert, withHerman Vice-President, Director of Interview 9 ) of interviewees indicated (e.g.of interviewees Vorona or itsneighbouronsuchissues, asanumber to cooperatekeen withfederal government isnot inparticular in Russia,whileMoscow There isstillalackofinter-regional planning ofMoscow.inter-penetrated bytheterritory ment, RussianFederation, Moscow, 1September 2008 must beaddedto theconceptualisation these. Particularly, itis “placelessness” that growth machine”, from itisstilldistinctive concepts of “edge city” and “(surburban) facets andcontroversies bythe asdepicted may share some While thecaseofKhimki transition. of question thediminishingimportance What we have above tends described to periphery” [RudolphandBrade, 2005:148]. to shapetheMoscow effects are starting mechanisms andstrategies withglobal and that “Rather, universal economic a definingforce urbanisation inperipheral as of transitionhave becomelesspowerful this, astheyargue, isthattheeconomics to Perhapsat theperiphery. asacorollary thathavesocial polarisation becomevisible this regard isastrengthening ofprocesses of [Rudolph andBrade, 2005:148].Notablein displays hybrid elements at theperiphery a newphase, suggest thatdevelopment as canbedescribed ofMoscow periphery atthe urbanisation that contemporary itclear and Brade(2005),whilemaking amplified inthepost-Soviet era.Rudolph settlements remains been andhasoften andsatelliteposition ofsuburban Soviet era[French, 1995]. The ambiguous muchoftheearly planning idealsduring ambiguities thatwere apparent inthe embodiedsomethingoftheMoscow development ofsatellite towns around Patterns andthe ofsuburbanisation the middle” uncovered. leave oftheterritory considerablestrips “in and related landusezoning documentation tois expected comeinto force in2009, which The newgeneralplanfor Khimki, 10 CONCLUSIONS Interview with Galina with Galina forVorona, Regional Interview Develop- Ministry 005.08.2010 16:19:53 5 . 0 10 8 . ). 2 0 1 0

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. Badyina,A.andGolubchikov, O. –amarket inCentral Moscow (2005)Gentrification 1. . Golubchikov, O. planning inRussia:towards (2004)Urban themarket. 6. Life ontheNewFrontier. Garreau, J. (1991)EdgeCity: Doubleday, New York. 5. French, R.A.(1995)Plans, Pragmatism andPeople: ofSovietPlanningThe Legacy for 4. AndMair, Cox, K. inthepoliticsoflocaleconomic A.(1988)Locality andcommunity 3. Bater, J. H.,Amelin, V. andDegtyarev, Moscow V. reform andthecentralcity: (1998)Market 2. of asuburb. centred (moreover, “closed”) to more city from reverted beingaself- as actually may beconsidered this respect,Khimki proper. ofMoscow ofthecity districts In but ratherasseveral dormitory peripheral well behardly distinguishedasonecity, increasingly fragmented placewhichmay into an thecity andmakes contained city asaself- identity industrial Soviet-era This modelofgrowth destroys Khimki’s planning anddevelopment strategies. urbanland asopposedto visionary allocationofdevelopableto acapricious standardised planningrequirements and control, andlocalgovernment’s retreat to development beyond theirimmediate to influence theshapeofwiderurban practices, alittleinterest oflocalbusinesses including highlyspeculative development from anumberofreinforcing reasons, strategies bythegrowth coalitions, arises place-making or thelackofpurposeful of post-Soviet Khimki. The placelessness, growthof rapidurban inthecontext REFERENCES: 5 3 Ostozhenka. Ostozhenka. Money,process oradeliberate policy? power andpeopleinhousingregeneration in Studies Today’s City. London: UCLPress. development, revisited. , N Post-Soviet Geography,

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N 87(2),pp. 113-129. (ESRC). (ESRC). Economic andSocialResearch Council This research bythe UK wassupported politics. post-suburban be proactive place-focused more inline withwhatisbelieved to Khimki the modesofgoverningdevelopments in residents’ re-structure movements willfurther infrastructure andemergingnew urban however, whetheragrowing demandfor remainsa separate to place. be seen, It creates prerequisites remaining for Khimki some degree elementand aplace-focused configurationcircumscribes to This territorial of itswealthiest andinvestment-attractive. Oblast,effectively ofMoscow one district finds itselfinthepositionofbeinga “special” ofMoscow, district Khimki and lesswell-off thanbeingconsidered aperipheral Rather ofdevelopment interests.structuration whichcomplicatesgovernment, thepolitical However, doeshave aseparate local Khimki ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  , N78,pp. 307-325 European Planning 005.08.2010 16:19:53 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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5 4 17. Tasan-Kok, T. S. andspatialchange. In (2006)Institutional Tsenkova andZ.Nedovic- 16. processes inthePost-Soviet ofrestructuring Rudolph, R.andBrade, I.(2005)Moscow: 15. Roland, G.(2004)Understanding institutionalchange:fast-moving andslow-moving 14. (2000-2007)b Population years.Mosoblkomstan Oblast,various migration inMoscow 13. M 12. Molotch, H.L.(1976) Molotch, asagrowthThe city machine.12. 11. A.G.,Nefedova,Makhrova, T. G.and Treivish, OblastSegodnya A.I.(2008)Moskovskaya 10. commercial real I.(2007)Landmarket, estate, andthe A.andMolodikova, Makhrova, Logan, J. Fortunes: H.(1987)Urban andMolotch, The Political Economy ofPlace. University 9. Kulcsar, L.J. andDomokos, T. (2005) The post-socialist growth machine:thecase of 8. R.,Olin,S.andPoster, Kling, M.(1995) The emergence anintroduction.In ofpostsuburbia: 7. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag. Budic (eds.), ofPost-Socialist Mosaic The Urban Europe: andPolicy. Space, Institutions metropolitan periphery. institutions. OblastCommittee Moscow for State Statistics(Mosoblkomstat). Moscow: (Mosoblkomstat). OblastCommittee Moscow for State Statistics years. Oblast,various Moscow Moscow: pp. 309-330. Khronograf. and Tomorrow: Tendencies Novyy andPerspectives Moscow: ofSpatialDevelopment). i Zavtra: Tendentsii Oblast (Moscow iPerspektivy ProstranstvennogoToday Razvitiya Springer.the Netherlands: Form andSpace Transformations inCentral Europe andEastern Socialism.Dordrecht, after Stanilov(ed.), remolding K. ofMoscow’s fabric. In Urban urban The Post-Socialist City: of California Press, Berkeley, CA. Hungary. Since County World War Two. ofCalifornia University Press, Berkeley. R.Olin,S.andPoster,Kling, M(eds.) Postsuburban California: The Transformation ofOrange osoblkomstan (2000-2007)aSocialandEconomicStatusofMunicipalities osoblkomstan International JournalofUrbanandRegionalResearch Studies inComparative International Development Cities , N

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Dordrecht: Springer, 2007. Form andSpace Transformations inCentral Europe andEastern Socialism. after forbetween: aneconomicgeography ofthebanal”, Regional Studies Russian province. 191–215; Golubchikov, O. developmentina andeconomicdisparities (2006)Interurban 5 5 42(4):457–473;Phelps, N.A.(2004) “Clusters, dispersionandthespacesin Eurasian Geography andEconomics direct investment, economiesandagglomeration” external N.A. (2008) foreign“Cluster orCapture? Manufacturing Capital Cities. Palgrave-MacMillan; Phelps, Basingstoke: Europe: Planning andPolitics attheMargin ofEurope’s Parsons, N.,Ballas, D. andDowling, A.(2006)Post-suburban London. recent publicationsinclude:Phelps, His N.A., SchoolofPlanning, College University at theBartlett currently Professor andRegional ofUrban Development politicsandplanning.agglomeration, andurban Heis andforeignenterprises of directinvestment, thetheory interests intheeconomicgeography ofmultinational from ofNewcastle-upon-Tyne. theUniversity Hehas CollegeUniversity London andhisPhD inGeography Nicholas A.Phelps in Stanilov, (ed.) K. UrbanThe Post-Socialist City: 2008 (withNefedova, T. G.and Treivish, A.I.);chapters Khronograf, Novyy Moscow: Spatial Development. and Tomorrow: Tendencies andPerspectives of Oblast Moscow 2003 (co-author); TodayOykumena, atthe City-Region Turn oftheCentury. Smolensk: Capital publicationsinclude: Moscow Main markets. and cities, spatialplanning, andresidential property Her research interests are thestudiesofurbanization State University. ShegainedherPhD degree in1987. Faculty ofGeography ofM.V.Lomonosov Moscow Alla Makhrova and development asynchronies. debate onRussianeconomicgrowth: regional restructuring Region. Geneva: UN;Golubchikov, O. the (2007)Re-scaling in theUnited NationsEconomicCommission for Europe (2009) Green Homes: Towards Energy EfficientHousing recentpolicy. publicationsinclude:Golubchikov, His O. governance, urban andhousing socialist urbanization, ofOxford.University research His withpost- isconcerned of Technology, Sweden, andaPhD inGeography from the from andinLandManagement RoyalInstitute University degreesHe hasMaster inGeography from State Moscow Geography andtheEnvironment ofOxford. oftheUniversity Oleg Golubchikov isaPrincipal Research fellow atthe is aResearch fellow attheSchoolof Urban Studies , 47(4):478–495. received aBAinGeography from Europe-Asia Studies Europe-Asia 41(5/6):971-989. , 59(2): 005.08.2010 16:19:53 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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5 6 Russia. Tel. [email protected]; +74959393842, fax+74959328836,e-mail: 1 agreements (MEAs) nowexist,forming a More than200multilateral environmental Environmental policy Scientific credibility, Epistemology, Precautionary principle, Demarcation, Key words: the lastyears. which have shownmere stagnation during move theenvironmental forward politics global environmental issuescan helpto be proposed. Better justificationofthese environmentalthe backward conceptscan some ways ofraisingscientificcredibility ofepistemologycharacter suggeststhat science. in modern theories The normative problem ofcoexistence of “strong” and “weak” oftheclassicalepistemologicalin thecontext concepts ofenvironmental issues isdiscussed difference inevaluationoftheglobal striking highdegree ofconfidence.deserved The ozone depletionandclimate change–were loss,biodiversity issues–the whiletwo issues –deforestation,and desertification minor confidenceto three environmental scientistsgranted American interviewed environmentalAmerican scientists. All made bytheauthorwithsomeleading This wasrevealed interviews during different ofscientificjustification. interms environmental politicscouldlookvery ofambitiousinternational being subject Abstract “STRONG” AND “WEAK” GLOBAL 2 Nikolay M.Dronin * Corresponding author harvard.edu INTRODUCTION ENVIRONMENTAL PHENOMENAS JMF Associates, Faculty ofGeography, Moscow State University, gory, Leninskie 119991, Moscow, Many globalenvironmental issues Global environmental issues,

Pennsylvania, Tel. john.m.francis@post. +12022804937,e-mail: 1 * andJohnM.Francis 2 of great Butotherswantto uncertainty. test preventativesanctions measures incondition to thesocalledPrecautionary Principle that andenvironmentalists makers refer Many policy to raise credibilityoftheirconcepts? efforts targeted couldthescientistsundertake turn their consolidated scientificconsensus?In or shouldtheywaitfor more conclusive and against onlymodestlysubstantiated threats community, actions should politicianstake face ofdisagreement withinthescientific scientific concept? properly assessthecredibilityofaparticular questionis:howcanthepublic the key scientificissuesWith to respect strictly poverty, healthoreducation. environmental issuesversus otherissuesas the allocationofresources to address costsassociated with and opportunity present ones;aestheticconsiderations; we tradefuture costsandbenefitsagainst to which theextent the biosphere generally; responsibility to future generations, even to thus inthedomainofpoliticaldecision:our squarely intherealm ofpublicvaluesand considerations are questionsthatrest scientific beyond thechallengesofstrictly problems comprehensively. Moreover, required to address globalenvironmental andskills master thebodyofknowledge one personorsmallgroup ofspecialistscan appeared withinthelast20years. Today no environmental governance. have Most for oftheframework global central part

For example, inthe 005.08.2010 16:19:56 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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the authors The ideafor thispapercameto oneof globalenvironmentalexample ofkey issues. investigates reasons for suchtesting onthe substantiated hypothetical dangers. This paper avoid wastingresources to address poorly claimsfirstinorder to credibility ofparticular 1 issues withprofessors from several American isbasedondiscussionsofglobal This section to beshared bysomany experts. one whichhethenbelieved wastoo radical closeto theauthor’stheir positionisvery camewithrealizing that second surprise ahighdegree ofconfidence.deserve The few conceptsofglobalenvironmental issues philosophers) were inagreement thatonly them, biologists, hydrologists, climatologists, and background, theresearchers (among Despite differences interviewed. in expertise difference amongtheviewsofthose The firstwastheabsenceofany substantial These discussionsbrought surprises. two loss.biodiversity ozone layer, deforestation, desertification, issues –climate change, depletionofthe globalenvironmental ofkey of confirmation author discussedtheirviewsasto thelevel the interviews With ofshort them,inaseries scientists from different academicinstitutions. several prominent environmental American at New York (NYU). University There hemet spending several monthsasaFulbright fellow Subsequently, theauthorvisited theUS those supporting “desertification”. author muchmore solidlygrounded than climate change, for to example, the looked confirmation. The arguments supporting with respect to theirlevel ofscientific global environmental issuesdiffer greatly ofthe thattheories the authorobserved issues. preparation During ofthecourse of lecturesonglobalenvironmental GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS? HOW CONFIDENT WE ARE ABOUT 5 Nikolay M.Dronin. Nikolay 7 1 as he was preparing a series ashewaspreparing aseries In generaltheschemedrawn bytheauthor In differences inbackgrounds andexpertise. consensusdespiteshowed surprising other. interviewed experts The American hand, andthethree remaining issuesonthe depletion andclimate change, ontheone issues: there isalarge break ozone between withrespect to thefive evenly partitioned is noton whichtheclaimsare ranked However, intheauthor’s view, thespace with theorder theyare presented above. oftheirscientificcredibilitycoincided terms The author’s ownranging ofthefive issuesin to humanwelfare.importance ofspeciesconsiderable mass extinction We have entered, orare entering, of aperiod scale; placeonaglobal Deforestation istaking scale; placeon aglobal istaking Desertification humans andtheirenvironments; process threatening majordamageto isanthropogenicallyGlobal warming driven production ofCFCs; Ozone byhuman depletionhasbeendriven them asto level ofsubstantiation: offered to comment andrank for theexperts Specifically, thefollowing five claimswere theories.” are analyzed ofgenuinely interms “strong to besure thatthesefive issues important isthereforethe nationalgovernments. It of commitment ofresources onthepart many years andcommandconsiderable All have beenonthepoliticalagendafor inthiscentury. development ofhumankind widely seenasglobalthreats to sustainable deforestation loss–thatare andbiodiversity depletion, climate change, desertification, offiveon thecomparison issues–ozone no longerthan30–40minutes andfocused regard to thoseissues. lasted The interviews level ofclaimsmade with ofconfirmation universities andontheirassessmentofthe 005.08.2010 16:19:56 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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5 8 compelling becauseofthe muchmore andgreenhouseswarming emissionsisless hypothesis aboutthecausallinkofobservable ofthe confirmation plausible butempirical climate isbeingwell developed andlooks of human-inducedchangeintheglobal They stressed thattheoretically theconcept ofscientificconfirmation. second interms ranked All theexperts “climate change” ofthiscausality.confirmation for theenvironmental issueandempirical clear mechanismofanthropogenic origin ofozone depletion:atheoreticallyranking 1987. emerge criteria forThus two thehigh ozonethe stratospheric over in Antarctica measurements of airborne experimental process obtained, for example, during verificationofthe and insolidempirical accounts for thephenomenon inquestion in theexistence ofaclearmechanismthat advantage seesomeconfirmatory experts at thetop ofthelist.Evidently, mostofthe also hadnohesitationinplacingthisissue some elementsremain unclear. However, he his evaluationoftheconcept,stressing that to have wascautiousin suchexperience torespect theozone problem. The onlyone have noresearchexperts with experience to the note thatforimportant themostpart established.concept asfirmly However, itis regard the All theexperts “ozone depletion” evaluating concepts. comeintowhether diverse play criteria in wasto ascertain goals oftheinterviews thediscussionbecause oneofthe during of “credibility ofconcept” or “justification” deliberately avoided to definestrongly term of anenvironmental concept. The author One wasrelated of to thecriteria “credibility” news ideasemerged thediscussion. during issues were valuableandinteresting. Some differenceconcerning incredibilityofthe than alltheothers. The expert’s comments top issues asmuchmore fullyconfirmed considerthetwo the authorexperts “deforestation” onthethird position.As on theonestep downpreferring to see place most experts “desertification” issue withsingle exception:was confirmed the definition withamore “theoretical” one, When invited to replace thisconventional (say, orCentral America). SouthAmerica globally orinsomeregion oftheworld simply asthereductionofforested area deforestationsees noproblem intaking a globalenvironmental issue. Onegroup definitionof as to thevery “deforestation” as (50:50) was adecisive splitamongtheexperts regard deforestation as “simply fact.” There exaggerated for tropical regions. Others area offorests asunreliable and, certainly, regarding existent statisticsondecrease of dataondeforestation,question empirical weak elementsoftheconcept.Someexperts the muchconcerning very varied the experts depletion andclimate change. Opinionsof deforestation third, well behindozone ranked oftheexperts The majority never used. environmental issues, suchwording was relationchange. to In thethree remaining ozone depletionandanthropogenic climate scientists concurred intheir “belief” inboth Despitethisdifference the than observation. change willrelyrather onmodelingefforts to theanthropogenic ofclimate character of thesescientists, conclusionswithrespect view In to becaptured bydirectobservation. presence ofgreenhouses gasesistoo slight in radiationchangecausedbyincreasing to precipitation) andjudgethatchanges exercising influence(especiallywithrespect capableof from offactors themultiplicity of noiseinclimate changedataresulting are lessconvinced pointto thepresence canbecontrolled. solar activity Those who in comingdecadewhentheinfluenceof ofclimate conditions or byobservations testedbe empirically byretrospective data that existingmodelsofclimate changecan change lesspersuasive. The firstconsider the evidencefor anthropogenic climate ofsubstantiationwhileothersfind terms regard theclaimsmore orlessequalin be placedto thatof “ozone depletion”. Some close theconceptofclimate changemight differed inrelationexperts to questionhow compared with ozone“the depletion.” The ofthephenomenonas complex character 005.08.2010 16:19:56 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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explanation and confusion in the term itself.explanation andconfusionin theterm evidence,parameters: empirical theoretical isrejected onthreedesertification of noting thatthecredibility isworth It abruptly dueto thechangeofcirculation. and allgreat droughts beganandended circulation ofglobalatmospheric caprices isruledby out thatprecipitation variability globally.(aridization) pointed The experts mightcausedesertification human activity plausible theoretical explanationasto how we mustrecognize theabsenceofany caused byanthropogenic factors, then asaglobal change regard desertification wezone If to theadvanceofgreat deserts). insemi-arid mismanagement offarming documentsandpublications(from policy inthrustacross whichvaries desertification intheuseofterm the lackofclarity of theworld. Secondly, theypointed to unfolding “desertification” intheregions asteadily evidenceconfirming empirical the scientistspointed to theabsenceofany thing” occurred frequently. importantly, Most was non-existent. The wording “it’s tricky scientistsdefinitely saidtheissue interviewed “desertification”. 100percent Actually of credibility granted to theconceptof littleaboutnegligible position says very credibility. However, inthiscasethefourth ofscientific positioninterms the fourth place the The experts “desertification” in the issue. grant even moderate confidencetoexperts the issue. few The netresult isthatonlyvery on theground ofoversimplified definitionof forest reductionismissingwhileothersdoso evidence indicatingunprecedented rates of of deforestation grounds thatempirical Thus somescientistsquestionthereality (including globalclimate) isdisturbed. ofthebiospherewhere function normal environmental issueonlyatthethreshold of forest area shouldberegarded asaglobal stability. According to thisgroup adecrease to theessential role offorests inbiosphere need to define deforestation withrespect as excessive simplificationand stressed the group rejected theconventional definition declined. However,these experts thesecond 5 9 be addressed onthebasis ofculturaland think thattheissueoflossspeciesshould (from genesto ecosystems). Someexperts happen?) andexcessively broad definitions theoretical substantiation(Howcouldit findonlyweak massextinction, supporting reliable way evidence to obtainempirical seeno theexperts summary habitat loss. In within singlespeciesthatismore affected by ofspeciesgenerallybutthediversity diversity reasonable to suggestthatitisnotthe established. Perhaps, itwould bemore species andareas oftheirhabitatsisnot and thecorrelationnumberof between approximatedexisting speciesisstillpoorly speculative becausethetotal numberof of lossspecies. The methodisobviously this correlation yieldsafantasticallyhighrate resident inthearea before humaninvasion, to thetotal numberofspeciespresumably ofspecieslosttherein.fraction When applied andthe habitat destroyed byhuman activity of assumed correlationthefraction between average.historical The secondisbasedonan rate isnothighwhencompared withthe thiscasethe species. In of lossknown of species. Oneisbasedondirect evidence waystwo to measure therate ofextinction the notionoflossbiodiversity. There are evidencesupporting empirical of gathering stressed the difficulty at present. Allexperts massextinction hypothesis ofobservable 90%). definitely rejected the The experts (presumably isstillunknown of theworld The total numberofspeciesany part loss”“biodiversity issuewithany confidence. resolved, theycannotrepresent publiclythe the problem ofspeciesborders) are not theoretical problems ofbiology(for example, They pointed outthatasmany classical of complex character “biodiversity”. were biologists whostressed theextremely mindedexperts Among themostskeptically diversity, ofecosystems. andinthevariety species, intheirgenetic(population) extant caused byhumanactivity, innumberof broadly definedasunprecedented decline, least tenable. lossissuecanbe Biodiversity loss”“biodiversity andrankthisissueasthe grant nocredibilityto theconceptof Finally, (withoneexception) theexperts 005.08.2010 16:19:56 5

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6 0 2 bymultiple ashaving beenconfirmed theory Popular viewregards a “credible” scientific assignments are arbitrary. theabsenceofagreedIn instructions, required a to construct “credibility index.” 80%)? Evidently, is aspecialsetofcriteria “substantial andcredible evidence” (67– (1–10%), “reasonable belief” (20–33%)or be assigned “reasonable suspicion” loss,Should biodiversity for example, pointsofthescale.events to particular provides nobasisfor assigning particular The proposed scheme, however, makers”.for policy understandable expression ofuncertainty this scale “could bethebasisfor aclearand According harm. to avert to Weiss [2006] intheabsenceofnearcertainty be taken of thePrecautionary Principal: may action stop andfrisk”). The scalecaptures thethrust are(“doesno actions sanctioned notjustify (lessthan1%) lowlevels ofcertainty At very as be asserious “stop for andfrisk weapons”). can be calledfor theaction (inlegalpractice may actions adoptionofsomeserious terms) (10–20%inBayesian at lowlevels ofcertainty showsthatevento eachpointofthescale. It Bayesian(borrowed statistics) from so-called but plausiblequantitative probabilities situations, andhave assigned arbitrary branchesofUSlaw inspecificlegal various a hierarchy ofstandards ofproof usedin basedon scaleofcertainty, twelve-point [2006] whoproposes acomplementary One ofmostoriginal comesfrom Weiss of credibilityenvironmental concepts. There are stillbefew suggestingcriteria works from thatofmassextinction. considerationsratherthan quality-of-life reasonable doubt” (Saunders2000). the defendant isguilty. mustonlybeconvinced It “beyond –butitdoesnotneedabsolute proofused incivilactions that onlyonthebalanceofprobabilitiesconvict – thestandard does notdemandabsolute proof. isnotsupposedto Ajury “Moreover, principle thelegalprinciple, theprecautionary like andlegalprocess. principle Peterprecautionary Saunderssaid: CRITERIA OF SCIENTIFIC CREDIBILITY Other authorsaswell have the Other seentheanalogybetween 2

critical rationalism,namelythedemarcationcritical limitations. This isaclassicalproblem of social andpoliticalvaluespersonal isshaped by confirmation their empirical and seeking theories while constructing may regard that scienceasanenterprise complex (holistic)approach to science. We aepistemology whichhaspracticed of conceptsshouldbedealtwithin Perhaps, evaluationofthecredibility theoretical formulation. underminetesting butself-evidently loss). Suchflaws notonlyprevent empirical broad (biodiversity definitionofterms orexcessivelyreadings (desertification) to multipleandambiguouswhen subject Moreover, anaccountlosesincredibility it. evidenceto support and theempirical a mechanismto explaintheobservation lacksjustsuchaccount oflowcredibility emissions whichdrivestheprocess. An mechanism intheform ofgreenhouse gas of aclearandtheoretically plausible degree ofconfidencedueto theexistence noise. However, ahigh theconceptearns with many feedback loopsandconsiderable because theclimate isacomplexsystem observation byempirical difficult to confirm and itspossibleanthropogenic origin, is point ofviewscientistsclimate change, substances inthestratosphere. From the loss andthepresence ofanthropogenic bythecorrelation ofozoneconfirmed andbecauseithasbeen of theobservation offers atransparent andcoherent account of ozone depletioniscredible becauseit or account. The anthropogenic hypothesis to establish thecredibilityofany claim ofcriteria scientistsuseavariety interviews, oftheof science. As seenfrom summary favoring it.However, thisisasimplification given thestrength evidence ofempirical outcome enjoys10%or80%confidence, to isexpected decidewhetheran An expert Weiss, apparently, inthissense. usestheterm lackscredibility. contradicts observation Anaccountwhichempirical observations. AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES LINKING EPISTEMOLOGY 005.08.2010 16:19:57 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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issue. Their responses donotconform stressed onlyimproper definitionofthe validationwhileothersits empirical of deforestation somequestioned on someissues, as whenintheevaluation founded. Norwere theyinfullagreement of otherareas. Their opinionsmightbeill- theinsandoutsareas andcannotknow scientists are allspecialistsinparticular based ontheirprofessional records). The wasanecdotal(althoughof interviewees oftheexercise.subjectivity The selection might bedismissedbyreference to the results oftheinterviews The striking to classicalepistemology.our interviews However, there isbenefitinreferring environmental studies. withepistemological ofconcern aspects with reference to Popper, isunusualinher our understandingofozone depletion ofof sciencewhoanalyzes thehistory little. [2000],aphilosopher Maureen Christie science andenvironmentalists share rather epistemological approach. Philosophers of an take theywould certainly the subject said thatiftheywere to decideto on write (withphilosophicalbackgrounds) experts weakbetween andstrong theories. Afew in my sampleholdto thedistinction given thatmostofthescientistsremarkable positivists, theywere skeptical. This is of Popper’s notionorthoseof thepost- abouttherelevancewhen directly asked raise any epistemological questionsand, However, didnotexplicitly theexperts corresponds to classicalepistemology. oftheproblemcomplex character which buttheirimprovisations showthepart global issueswasimprovisation ontheir assessmentof credibilityofconcerning The viewsofthescientistsininterviews “sound” science. his ownpositionontheways to demarcate andPaul Lakatos, Imre R. Thagard, eachheld who followed Popper – Thomas S.Kuhn, Amongthosefalsification asacriterion. (in 1934),whoadvancedthenotionof Popper addressed byKarl pseudo-theory) (or strongbetween andweak theory 6 1 international reports. international to thedominantviewsfound inofficial scientific confidenceyet. well “deforestation” significant level issuesare of notdeserved ever, according to theexperts’ evaluationthe “desertification” as (28%)(GlobalEnvironment Outlook1999).How- desertification scarcity offresh water resources (29%),anddeforestation/ threats (from thetotal number36)asclimate change(51%), scientists for selection selection arecantation. ... make ofnatural The theory wrote: to “I amgladto have anopportunity As he ofnatural selection. theory Darwinian andlogicalabout thetestability statusofthe Recall thatPopper [1978]changedhismind with thedemandsofscientificdiscourse. willing to rework themsothattheycomply Proponents conceptsmustbe ofparticular with respectto otherdemarcation criteria. improved to allowtesting andassessment Weak conceptscanbereformulated and reject any conceptastotally unscientific. to improve science. We thinkitwrong to is anormativedisciplineanditsfinalaim to recall thatepistemology isalsoimportant It “strong” science. inmodern theories epistemological oppositionof “weak” and differences the incredibilityandconfirms revealsin philosophicalcontext striking of Weiss. However, relocating thisexercise systematization inasinglescalesuchasthat which donotlendthemselves to easy proposed quite differentThe experts criteria theory has already madegreattheory strides toa reaction itsdifficulties. The dominant as ofthedominanttheory in thewake theorizing. appears The alternative theory it facesacute competitionfrom alternative The mainindicator ofa “strong theory” isthat reformulated testing. to allowempirical to himforsuspect many years couldbe Popper thatlooked believed thatatheory from tautological”. By “may besoformulated” 3 MORE COMPETITION, MORE CREDIBILITY OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONCEPTS TO RAISE CREDIBILITY For ofemerging outamong example,issuescarried asurvey GEO 2000 may besoformulated listed thetop three environmental 3 thatitisfar 005.08.2010 16:19:57 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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6 2 compete, is they simply coexist.Littlework proponents may exist,butratherthan adherents. Difference inviewsamongits itcanhave many seemsself-evident, theory arguments. Despitestagnation, asthe and reiterates the sameformulations and changeslittleover theyears weak theory formulated anomalies. to give birth The contrast, In weak theory”“the istoo thinly collision ofalternatives indetail. [2000]investigatesand 1984.Christie the 1976 between an increase insolaractivity climate shift. Yet anotheraccountpointed to of ozone poortroposphere airbecauseofa ozone hole” couldbe theresult ofupwelling hole”. suggeststhat Analternative theory “the causeofformationprincipal of ozone“the accumulated inthestratosphere are the the anthropogenic substanceCFCsbeing that ofozone depletionasserts theory camp incurrent literature. The dominant ofscientistsfromabout fraction each no demonstrationaswe findestimates climate changeneeds camps concerning eras. Existence competing oftwo mid-glacial to from past-glacial transition oftheEarth placedueto theastronomically driven taking concept argues is thatglobalwarming gases intheatmosphere. The alternative the anthropogenic increase ofgreenhouse resultsand predicted globalwarming from climate changesuggeststhatobservable and natural. The dominantconceptof accountsoforigin –anthropogenictwo between arises conceptstypically between With environmental studiescompetition science” to do. asPopper wantedthe dominanttheory “real whoseaimisto falsify critic role ofexternal plays theimportant The alternative theory andnew(discrepant)old (confirming) facts. to covereventually propose anewtheory hypotheses, notallscientistsare happyand situation viatheelaborationofadditional couldsettlethe the dominanttheory have inevitablyaccumulated. Although thatchallengethedominanttheory facts butinthisway new thetheory that confirm searchaccompanied byextensive for facts neighboring areasneighboring into as thespreading deserts ofmajorworld “Desertification” hasalsobeenunderstood geographic areas. localizationto semi-arid abandoned infavor ofusagewithstrong 1986]. Today thismeaninghasallbutbeen erosion, andthinningvegetation [Dregne manifesting adeclineofsoilfertility, regionssemi-humid (butnotsemi-arid!) to beanegative changein desertification who firstproposed in1949,took theterm illustration. The French botanist Aubréville, the term “desertification” provide auseful differences inthemeaningof Remarkable of thedevelopment. –correspondloss ofbiodiversity to thisstage deforestationissues –desertification, and least three conceptsofglobalenvironmental basicdefinitions. concerns scientists often At science where thedifference ofviews Kuhn’s ofpre-paradigmatic characterization done to settle thesedifferences. iscloseto It 4 mustbesettledfirst. term “desertification” different meaningsofthe oftheconcept withclarification forward found inthecurrent literature. To move arguments in favor ofany meaningare thisdifferenceto clarify andnocompeting coexist ratherthancompete. Littleisdone area etal. [Charney 1977]. These meanings the atmosphere ofthe thatcausesaridization onesasaresultdrier convection ofweaker in zonein semi-arid changeslocalclimate for more sophisticated concepts, humanactivity Accordingconventions to ondesertification. This understandingprevails inmodern namely overgrazing andexcessive tilling. zonessemi-arid causedbymismanagement, transformation oflandsin be adesert-like to considerdesertification other experts for therate ofthisexpansion.However, andcite figures the expansionofdeserts locally important andhighlyvisible”locally important (Dregne 1986). thatisofsmall areal butis extent ofdesertification is anaspect routes oasesandtransportation moving sanddunesondesert threatening Encroachment mankind. of an expandingdesert There apparently issomethingfascinatingabouttheideaof a commonviewonthesubject” (Cloudsley-Thompson 1974). thatitnowrepresentsto numerous ondesertification writers great waves theincomingtide ofaseabecameattractive like “...the ideathattheSaharawasavastsandfieldadvancingin 4 . Many experts speakof . Many experts 005.08.2010 16:19:57 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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the current situationiscomparableto the considerthat that drive it.Someobservers to search outthemechanisms this observation To isto move thisissueseriously beyond take anditspopulation. for concern serious Earth lossisa isevidentthatglobalbiodiversity It deforestation. would bethebasisfor anewdefinitionof stress Suchanextension theclimate aspect). particularly global climate (someexperts offorests inthebiosphere(service) including to theglobalfunction notion shouldextend in thedeclineofforested the area. Rather forested area. There isnotheoretical issue limited to anarrow focus onthedeclineof that notiondeforestation shouldnotbe of thescientistsinourpanelsuggested are atrapfor environmental studies. Some results declineofforests. Suchtautologies evident. Deforestation isbadbecauseit whichfiguresnegative impact asself- is limited to declarationsabouttheir the conceptualtreatment oftheseissues receivesimpact scantattention. Factually mechanismand between distinction the loss,biodiversity anddesertification, For suchglobal issuesasdeforestation, health andecosystems. dangers ofincreasing radiationfor human evaluationsexploreimpact thepotential ozone andanthropogenic substanceswhile ozone layer inrelation to reactionsbetween investigates depletionofthechemistry events, health,disease, etc. Stratospheric productivity, weather ofextreme frequency climate onagriculturala muchwarmer (danger)of models thepossibleimpact gases (CO increasing concentrationsofgreenhouse to warming atmospheric ascribes Theory layer aspects. distinguishthesetwo clearly climate change anddepletionoftheozone indicates conceptual maturity. Concepts of is posedtohumankind? evaluation ofpotential dangers( ( to offer mechanisms between adistinction isalsoessentialfor environmentalIt concepts MORE THEORY, MORE CREDIBILITY 6 what aphenomenonisitby itself? 3 2 , most importantly). Other research Other , mostimportantly). ). A clear distinction ). Acleardistinction what danger ) and typical. mentionedaboveof thebasicterm are Differences inthemeaning atrisk. countries potential dangerfor localpopulationsand discussare studiesinwhichexperts More commondevoted to desertification. scarce andare notatthefocus ofresearch However,observation. theseattempts are testedempirically (andthusfalsified)by canbe nonetheless thatCharney’s theory [N’Tchayi etal. 1997]. This demonstrates butremained unconfirmed Sahara desert the origin ofdustinareas the neighboring stimulatedThis conjecture research into areas etal.in semi-arid [Charney 1977]. less rainanddiminishedcloudformation convection withtheresultatmospheric of dust from degraded landsmightdecrease suggested thatthepresence ofmore in hisranging has oftheissues).Charney issue athigherpositionthan “deforestation” (and itgives theauthor ground to placethis ofmechanismattempts to propose atheory “desertification” looksmore advanceddueto At thesametimesituationwith rainforests) isunknown. regionand inany (includingthe particular The total numberofspeciesontheEarth took itseriously intheinterviews experts oftheplanet.None geological history associated withlargest catastrophes inthe rates which iscomparableto theextinction 33%and50% between assumptions) varies The lossofspeciesglobally(basedonsuch of tropical forests by2000[Lovejoy 1980]. asaresult ofsuggestedone-third lossof50% T. Lovejoy projected at lossofbiodiversity 2002].Similarly Biodiversity biologist WWF by a50%lossinspecies[HabitatLoss and the area ofnaturalhabitatisaccompanied O.E. Wilson, assumesthatlossof90%in with different variations. For example, are basedonthisassumption of extinction habitats. Allestimates aboutcurrent rates species results from thereductionofnatural of extinction 30 years thatcurrent large-scale been suggested intheliterature ofthelast hasbeenelaborated. Rather,extinction ithas ofthisassumedmass Surprisingly, notheory largest geological catastrophes ofthepast. 005.08.2010 16:19:57 5 .

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6 4 subject to differentsubject interpretations. Atthe has yet beenadopted. The problem is to aneven greater asno convention extent the endof1970s, thisissueisboggeddown considerationssince policy of international Although deforestation hasbeensubject on hold. while financingfor convention was efforts hadpresented all countries aplan of action of UN. However by2007lessthanone-third atmediationbythe efforts due to enormous later (1996)theconvention cameinto force Fouras to thedefinitionofsubject. years failed. Oneofthereasons wasuncertainty ForumRio negotiationsontheconvention However,conference ondesertification. atthe agendaat1977aspecialUN at thepolicy Conference.Rio The problem wasfirstput many years before policy international the for wasthesubject issues. Desertification of policiesinrelation to theotherthree Far more problematic isthedevelopment achieved soon. There islittledoubtthatresults willbe to move muchfaster inthecomingyears. convention andassociated Protocol promise of environmental intheUSA, policy suspension associated withtheslowing on climate changerankssecond. some After a resounding success. Forward movement policy, theozone depletionissuehasbeen ofeffective terms changed remarkably. In with respectto thefive issueshas policy since theForum, thestate ofenvironmental format onlysignificantly later. the17years In –were framedinconventiondesertification adopted. Two others–deforestation and climate losswere change andbiodiversity 1992. Atthatsummitonlyconventions on to attention world atRio World Summitat global issuesconsidered inthispapercame which rose to prominence in1987,the With theexception ofozone depletion, their proponents. forenvironmental conceptsmustbepriority Theoretical development ofglobal CONCLUDING REMARKS Stephen Pacala, Director ofPrinceton We thankaswell allthepanelists:Professor regardingkind andcommentingthepaper. Weill College inQatar, Medical Cornell for her advisor. We alsothankDr. from ReneeRicher Smith for beingencouraging academic for hosting, warmly andProfessor Dennis of Public New Management, York University and theauthorappreciates R. Wagner School Fulbright fellowship Dronin granted to Nikolay The research wasdoneintheframeof parties. overcome thesubrationalself-interest ofall will only claimswhichenjoyhighcredibility frequently thisstruggle deeplyconflicted. In where politicalandeconomicinterests are issues iswagedonhighlycompetitive ground agreement environmental oninternational be notoverlooked. The struggleto achieve status oftheissuesunderscrutiny should involved.the parties Still, therole ofscientific bytheexistence ofdifferentpart interests of environmental policiescanbeexplained in Difficulties inthedevelopment ofthe associatedplans comewithheavy costs. plants andlower animals. Moreover, such are believed to have beendescribed, mostly estimated ten percent oftheworld’s species of BAPisthatita “daunting task” asonlyan status. The mostcommoncharacterization and conservation population distribution individual species, withemphasisuponthe which shouldprovide of afullinventory developed Plan Action aBiodiversity (BAP) convention, ofthesehave butonlyafraction As hadratifiedthe of2008,189countries in 1992butprogress hasbeenmodest. atRio from parties gained more support conventionThe Biodiversity somehow understanding for aconvention butfailed. from 2000–2005toworked establishshared timber.export AspecialUNForest Forum a viewnotshared which by countries that forests are aglobalecological resource Conference,Rio insisted somecountries ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 005.08.2010 16:19:57 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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10. Weiss,10. C.,(2006),Can Precaution?There BeScience-Based Environ. Res. Let. 1.(available at Saunders, P. T., (2000),UseandAbuseofthePrecautionary Principle, ISISNews(now 9. Popper, 32,339–355. andtheEmergence Dialectica ofMind, (1978), Natural Selection K., 8. N’Tchayi, M.G.,etal., (1997), andSeasonal CyclesThe Diurnal of Wind-Borne Dustover 7. Lovejoy, T., (1980),AProjection ofSpeciesExtinctions. to the The global2000report 6. HabitatLoss andBiodiversity., (2002), W210 LECNOTES 4REV. (available athttp://www. 5. GlobalEnvironment Outlook2000,(1999),United NationsEnvironment Programme, 4. Cloudsley-Thompson, J. L.,(1974), The EcologyofOases. Watford, Merrow. Dregne, H.E., 3. Christie, M.,(2000), The Ozone Layer. APhilosophy ofSciencePerspective. Cambridge 2. Charney. J., etal., (1977),AComparative StudyoftheEffects ofAlbedoChangeonDrought 1. for Atmosphere Science, Ocean New York Dr. David Holland, Director oftheCenter Professor ofBiology, New York University, York University, Dr. Tyler Volk, Associate Director ofEnvironmental StudiesatNew Princeton University, Professor DaleJamieson, Levin, Director ofCenter for BioComplexity, Princeton University, Professor Simon Policy atthe Woodrow Wilson School, Science, Technology andEnvironmental Oppenheimer, Director oftheProgram in Environmental Institute, REFERENCES 6 5 http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/17489326/1/1/014003/erl6_1_014003.html) 6. Science inSociety), oftheEquator, North Africa ofAppliedMeteorology Journal 36,868–882. President. U.S. GovernmentPrinting Office, Washington DC, Vol. 2,328–332. humboldt.edu/~tlg2/w210/W210Lec4.pdf) Publications.Earthscan Nijhoff. Dordrecht, Martinus, desertification. Lands. ofArid (1986), Desertification Press,University Cambridge. Regions,in Semi-Arid J. Atmos. Sci.34,1366–1385.

Professor

Michael Michael In: El-Baz,F. andM.H.A.Hassan,(eds.). Physics of North Dakota. Dakota. North Systems ScienceandPolicy, of University Assistant Professor, ofEarth Department Dr. Dakota, of North RebeccaRomsdahl, System ScienceandPolicy,Earth University Dr. Professor, Hill, Michael of Department ofColumbia University, Observatory Earth Senior Research Scientist,LamontDoherty of Columbia University, Dr. Richard Seager, for Climate Institute Prediction oftheEarth Research Institute Scientist, International University, Dr. Research Andrew Robertson,  005.08.2010 16:19:57 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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6 6 mathematic 26publications. linguistics, comparativeHistorical linguistics, applied University,Harvard USA.Scientificinterest andexpertise: York, USA.Educationandgrades –1967:PhD inLinguistics, John M.Francis. 3 monographs, 3themostcited publications. onagriculture,and itsimpact food security. 60publications, Environmental ofgeography, policy, history climate change State University, Russia.Scientificinterest andexpertise: Ph.D. inPhysical Geography, Faculty ofGeography, Moscow in Physical Geography, State University, Moscow Russia;1999: Russia.Educationandgrades –1979:Diploma Blagoveshensk, Nikolay M.Dronin. Date and place of birth 15.03.34,New Date andplaceofbirth Date and place of birth 02.09.57, Date andplaceofbirth 005.08.2010 16:19:57 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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attractors), andc)toattractors), combinediscrete onthelandscape(andrelatedinteractions for spatial dynamicalsystems describing complexity, b)to findLyapunov functions measures spatial-ecological ofstructural are identified. These are: a)to develop difficulties) for future research arise where themajorchallenges(andhence, so faravailable to assessit,theareas reviewingafter thequantitative methods and (structural,functional), complexity ofspatialecological basictypes two betweenBeginning withadistinction formation. and chaos, andpattern self-organization nonlinear interactions, unpredictability in landscapes, suchasspatialecological complexfeaturesdescribe andprocesses automata andnonlineardynamics. They These modelsare from derived cellular complex systems. quantitative assessmentsofspatialecological available formathematical modelshitherto evaluation ofthediscrete andanalytical This paperaimsatamethodological Geography andEcology. one ofthetop research for priorities Physical oflandscapesis Assessing thecomplexity 8045265. Email:[email protected] address:Mailing 13aAedonon street, Athens 11475,Greece. Tel. 0030-210-6445825, ofEuropean Culture,Department Geography Unit,HellenicOpenUniversity Fivos Papadimitriou ABSTRACT 6 SYSTEMS: AN EVALUATION SPATIAL-ECOLOGICAL COMPLEX MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF 7 How farhave we advanced inmodelling for calculatinghowcomplexalandscapeis? difficult? What are themainanalyticalmodels number ofquestionsrise: Why isthis so landscape complexity. Consequently, a a setofgeneralmethodsto measure To date, neitherofthesedisciplines possesses indices. landscape-ecological known combinationsofalready subjective) extent, are (and, madebyusingvarious to acertain which assessmentsoflandscapecomplexity while LandscapeEcologypresents studies in method to evaluate landscapecomplexity, appear to have any widelyaccepted tool or doesnotmanagement. Geomorphology as well asfor oflandscape thepractice oflandscapeecological analysis,theory methods would have beenusefulfor the a landscapemay successful, be. such If last years aimedto evaluate howcomplex overVarious the research undertaken efforts Automata Geo-Systems, Lyapunov Cellular functions, Systems, ComplexNonlinear Dynamical Key-words: models. time andcontinuousspatialdata INTRODUCTION Geographical Modelling, 005.08.2010 16:19:58 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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6 8 adaptation) andgeometric. The latter steps andcompounds),behavioural (i.e. within theecosystem), process (i.e. (referringstructural to relationships temporal (populationdynamicsetc), aside ofspatialecological complexity: of five types “ecological complexity”, Loehle [2004] suggested, thatthere are of landscapecomplexity. For instance, difficulties intheclassificationoftypes there areof thesubject, however Despite therecognition oftheimportance withsuchmethods.complexity to modellingandcomputationoflandscape which ambiguitiesordifficultiesarise, related present to shedlightonthefieldsin aneffort seems more difficultto decipher)andb)to landscapecomplexity,functional which (particularly to modellandscapecomplexity and analyticalmathematicalmethodsused accountofthediscrete a state-of-the-art ofthepaperare:The objectives a)to present &Fonstad,[Murray 2007]. highest research inGeomorphology priorities shouldbeoneofthe landscape complexity 2006] anditwasalsosuggested that and landform formation processes [Fonstad, inlandforms [Werner,1999] of complexity also, Geomorphology thereIn isevidence & dynamics [Turchin Taylor, 1992]. from withinlandscape observed complexity [Pahl-Wostl, 1995]andfindingsrelated to inthelandscapenon-linear interactions 2006]. Research hasproduced evidenceof &O’Hara, al, 2005;Herzon 2005;Kolasa, [e.g. etof landscapecomplexity Gabriel literature, related to quantitative assessments have appeared over thelastyears inthe Wu &Hobbs[2002]andseveral studies inLandscapeEcologyaccording to priority research isakey Landscape complexity theoretically inthispaper. methods? These questionsare tackled byusinganalytical landscape complexity COMPLEXITY TWO OFTYPES LANDSCAPE The computationof unifying way. ina providing uswiththesecharacteristics is thatwe donothave ageneralalgorithm length ofitspatches. The mainproblem here andlongerboundary of landcover types higher thananother’s, ifithashigherdiversity Hence, alandscape’s is complexity structural use, landcover, soilandvegetation maps. fromspatial complexity thelandscape’s land isequivalentto thecalculationof complexity this case, thecomputationoflandscape satellite photograph. imageoraerial In study ofalandscape’s maporalandscape’s ways,computed invarious i.e. through the The 1986] for theirexplanation. landscape ecology[Forman &Godron, reader isreferred to any of classictext meanings inLandscapeEcologyandthe “structure” and “function” have precise &Oster,sense of[May 1976]). The words time andhencecanbe “dynamic” (inthe functional, whichcanbothchangewith and structural may basictypes: beof two it issuggested thatlandscapecomplexity with previous publications, inthispaper domain ofLandscapeEcology. line In however, norany classificationfrom the ofecologicalaccepted complexity typology domain ofEcology. There isnowidely one classificationonly, available from the shapes ofecological objects. Yet, thisis the third dimensionandtheparticular of spatialcomplexity, withemphasison might beconsidered asyet anotherform components are. complex thanthelandscapes’ structural species, soilandnon-biota)are muchmore landscapes’ constituents(plantandanimal assessments oftherelationships amongthe difficult,becausequantitative particularly calculation oflandscapecomplexity movements, trophic chains)render the (i.e. speciesinteractions, water flows, soil characteristics functions. Suchfunctional oflandscape the non-spatialcharacteristics landscapecomplexity,structural dueto ismorecomplexity elaborate thanthatof structural landscape complexity canbe landscapecomplexity functional landscape 005.08.2010 16:19:58 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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equations (terms suchas equations (terms are shownby “nonlinear” inthese terms X howdifferentdescribe populations(i.e. pray They a populationspecies equations are modellingthechangeof (i.e. differential equationsmodels). These useanalyticalmathematicalmethods often are aspopulations, ususallydescribed we discrete andanalytical. Given thatecosystems ofmathematicalmethodsprevail:categories of mathematicalmethods. main But,two Ecological modellingentailsadiverse array complexity? landscape andfunctional model structural What mathematicaltools dowe needto on processes andbehaviours that lead to Complex Systems usuallyfocuses Theory it becomes, how does itevolve intime. complex, why, bywhatprocesses, and, once and to explore howsomesystem becomes is understood bythelayman as “complex” to usethisterm often signify precisely what astronomy, science etc. materials We most such aseconomics, physics, physiology, ofapplications,spectrum inmany disciplines, “Complex Systems Theory” wide entailsa very differential equationsmodels. complicated equations, aswe dowith relatively simplerules, withoutsolvingany changes over ageographical spacewith automata, we have to explore thepossibility such ascellularautomata. With cellular their attention to non-analyticmodelsalso, this reason thatresearchers have turned isfor conditionsetc). It (boudnary arising due to themany mathematicaldifficulties undertaking, per grid cellisapainstaking differential equationsinspaceandtime difficultto handle, becausesolvingvery the analyticalmathematicalmodelsare components ofecological changes, Yet, whenwe needto explore thespatial ORGANIZATION COMPLEX SYSTEMS AND SELF- 6 9 andpredator

are nonlinearandtherefore typically Y ) interact. ) interact. These interactions X withtime: X 2 and XY). dX/dt. the caseofspeciesinteractions, such as of “functional” occurin self-organization seen from cellularautomata, andexamples of purelycanbe spatialself-organization lato some timestabilize, thisisalsoa( Also, and, whenpopulationsinteract after we may callthisprocess aself-organization. result ina “permanent” spatialallocation, and,spatial unitsinteract sometime, after spatial andnon-spatial. For instance, when inecosystems maySelf-organization be mathematical approaches. and preferred attheexpenseofany other (differential equations)are mostvaluable that modelsusinganalyticapproaches complex behaviour. isalsoatthispoint It andlandscape are ofcomplexity hallmarks (or “pattern formation”), ona observed respect, thatcasesof “self-organisation” ispreciselyecological analysis.inthis It constitutes acentralthemeinlandscape time inthespatialevolution ofecosystems to this. Furthermore, analysingtherole of complexity. Andlandscapesare noexception usesanalyticalmethodsfor tackling Theory ofComplex Systems themajorpart fact, In inany system. issuesofcomplexity tackle foremost andcentraltool we possessto of nonlinearsystems thatoccupiesthe calculus. Butitisthemathematicalanalysis from methodsofdiscrete mathematicsto immenselyandtheycanrange system vary inanythat canbeusedto modelcomplexity themathematicalmethods,new properties), stabilization andresilience, emergence of ofelements,system (i.e. connectivity formationaside ofpattern inanobserved As offeatures there isavariety ofcomplexity equations systems. it may emerge from even simpledifferential chapters, aswillbeseeninthenext fact, In emerge from purely systems. deterministic andchaosmay also that unpredictability ofComplex Systems isdiscovery Theory can thusbeunpredictableorchaotic. Amajor difficulttopredict, quantify. Suchbehaviours behaviours difficultto decipher, difficultto “complex behaviour”. As such, we mean often ) self-organization process.) self-organization Examples sensu 005.08.2010 16:19:58 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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7 0 states oforder andrandomness anddisplays patterns (suchasthedarkarea inthemiddle) distinct ordered andCiscompletely random. ButlandscapeBiscomplex, becauseitisinbetween thetwo condition Systems isperceivedTheory, complexity asa difference with inComplex “heterogeneity”: Systems isenoughto reveal its Theory) understood inthedomainofComplex ofthewordthe context “complexity” (as such asheterogeneity. considering fact, In anditscomponents, complexity between stated earlier, difference constitute akey which,as orself-organisation, of patterns complex behaviour may leadto thecreation more heterogeneous landscape, andthis complex dynamicbehaviour thananother complexity,functional may develop amore heterogeneous landscapeandwithlower does notalways hold. Further, aless imply highcomplexity, butthereverse its functions. Sohighheterogeneity may of also becomplexdueto thecomplexity ofitsheterogeneity only.complexity can It landscape may notbesuchbecauseofthe is alsohighlycomplex.Butacomplex former. Ahighlyheterogeneous landscape ofthe latter concept issimplyasub-concept different thanits “heterogeneity” andthe Clearly, the “complexity” ofalandscapeis only). valuesoftheirparameters(with certain byLotka-Volterrathose described models HETEROGENEITY LANDSCAPE DIFFERENT THAN WHY IS LANDSCAPE COMPLEXITY chaos, so neitherlandscapeA(ordered) norlandscape Care “complex”, becauseAiscompletely Fig. 1.According toComplex Systems Theory, complexity isacondition inbetween order and in between orderin between andrandomness (Fivos Papadimitriou. 2009). , S processes dependingonasetof “states” automata. These are automatic evolutionary arecomplexity mainlybasedoncellular Discrete modelsfor landscape structural orfunctional). structural (either changes inlandscapecomplexity methods are usedfor temporal describing analytic methodsfor bothtypes.Also, both without precludingofusing thepossibility problems landscapecomplexity, offunctional (analytical) approaches are more suitablefor landscape complexity, whilecontinuous methods are mainlyusedto assessstructural approaches to it.Discrete (algorithmic) therefore have bothdiscrete andcontinuous referred to presentschallenges. distinct We previously oflandscapecomplexity types the computationofeachonetwo Following thesemethodological concerns, emergepatterns (fig. 1). where appearsandspatial self-organization on thestate ofthecellattime each time of thesurrounding cells. Consequently, at bytherulesandstatesdetermined is found inonestate onlyand itsstate is T determined fromdetermined thetransitionrule COMPLEXITY LANDSCAPEMODELLING STRUCTURAL 1 2 , , ..., S 2 , ..., T m , acting onthesestates., acting Eachcell S n t andasetof rules”“transition +1,thestate ofeachcell, t : T i acting acting S 005.08.2010 16:19:58 t 5 +1 . 0 , is T 8 . 1 2 , 0 1 0

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[Rohde, 2005;Baynes, 2009]. latitudinal gradients andspeciesdiversity ecologies, interspecies competition, ecological processes suchasniches, industrial ecological laws, to theexplorationof to establishgeneralalgorithmic possibility in Landscaperesearch, ranging from the inanumberofcases explain complexity Cellular automata have beenapplied to languages, suchasJava, C++andDelphi. The simulationusuallyneedsobject-oriented (case c). is the “5X5 Von Neumannneighbourhood” ofthecentralcell.neighbourhood Onesuch than inthe9cellssurrounding theimmediate cellular automata withlongerinteractions There are otherpossibilitiesfor constructing called a Moore neighbourhood”.“9-cell neighbourhood”, whilethelatter isalso former isalsocalleda “3X3 von Neumann in chess)cases “a” or “b” respectively. The sense (astherook’s ortheking’s movements cells, eitherinthe “rook” senseorinthe “king” withtheirneighbouring that caninteract dimensions (fig.landscape cellsintwo 2), The “rules” on are acting simplealgorithms 7 Fig. cellular automata: 2.Elementary in “rook’s case” (a),thecentral cell interacts onlywithfour surround- 1 ing cells, while in “king’s case” (b) itinteracts withallninesurrounding cells. von Ina5-cell Neumann neighbourhood (c),thecentral cell interacts with12cells around it(Fivos Papadimitriou. 2009) S t

T i

S t +1 as computationalmeasures ofspatial enlightening they are not particularly which are (fig. signs ofcomplexity 3),but formationpattern andself-organization, landscape changesover timeandobserve because withcellularautomata we simulate us measure landscapecomplexity. This is geographical processes, buttheydonothelp ofsomemechanisms ofcomplexity automata are usefulto mustbenoticedhowever,It thatcellular & Turcotte,1999]. &Sole, landscapes [Manrubia 1996;Malamud inas phenomenaofself-organization processes [Satulovsky, 1997],aswell ofspatialsynchronizationthe complexity we caneven1990; Duarte,1997], explore the spatialpropagation offire [Green etal, the ways bywhichlandscapeschangewith With cellular automata, we cansimulate 2002]. &Namatame,[Matsuba 2003;Sprott etal, et al, 2001],andoverall landscapeevolution basins [Guermond, etal, 2004;D’Ambrosio processes andsoilerosion) (i.e. in run-off etal,Guermond 2004],geomorphological in thecourseoftime[Barredo etal, 2003; to modeltheexpansionofurbanization Also, theyhave beenappliedinGeography simulate thespatial 005.08.2010 16:19:59 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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7 2 logistic differential equation: dynamical systems. suchcaseisthe Atypical may appearfrom even simplenonlinear phenomena, suchasbifurcations andchaos Systems wasthatcomplex Theory inComplexOne ofthemajordiscoveries processes we model. we are abouttheanalyticdetailsbehind our representations are, themore ignorant ignorance. otherwords, In themore realistic cellular automata we traderealism with away,processes theydescribe. In with methods for studyingtheevolutionary we cannotapplyanalyticmathematical given byrulesandnotequations, so landscape statestransitions between are Furthermore, incellularautomata the measuring it evolves withtimeisdifferent thanactually ( complexity for othervaluessuchas which displays periodicity forwhich displays periodicity SINGLE SPECIES MODELS COMPLEXITY LANDSCAPEMODELLING FUNCTIONAL geneity, i.e. anddown-right), down-left even somelinearfeatures linesinthelower (thevertical halfof which hasevolved 100timestepsandbegunfrom arandom after initialspatial distributionofitsfour land cover. thisnumberoftimesteps, After itnow shows areas of “self-organization” (areas ofhomo- Fig. 3An example landscapecovered by acellular automaton with4interacting “land cover” types, it). describing dX dt = aX acomplexprocess as (1 – a = 3.75for whichit the landscape)(Fivos Papadimitriou. 2009) X ) a = 3.2,whilst In itsdiscreteIn andrecurrent form (fig4). orbits is plotted here, itdisplays stableandchaotic it holdsfor considers thateachoccupied patch may occupied atagiven time, themodel with Defining population. analytically thespatialinhomogeneitiesofa [Levins, 1969],becauseitaimsatexploring attracted much attentionattracted isthe modelwhichhas Another single-species are “infinitely sensitive” to initialconditions. systems are difficultto predict, becausethey as itreveals thateven simpledeterministic ofComplexthe cornerstones Systems Theory, hasbeenoneof behavior andthisdiscovery complexdynamic models candisplay very wildly.fluctuate Thus, even simpleecological complexand the solutionsbecomevery Interestingly, =3.569945, whena>acritical of which isbifurcations (fig5),for iterative values displays anotherinteresting complexbehavior, X n

(plotted for a

m X n 4 (otherwise 4(otherwise +1 X X = the fraction ofpatches thefraction 0 =0.5here). aX n (1 – X X n

) → Levins – × ) and it ) andit model 005.08.2010 16:19:59 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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t, some timebecome unoccupiedafter of propagule generation for eachofthe colonization). Letting remaining to subject (which nevertheless ofunoccupied patchesthe proportion 7 Fig. 4 “Chaotic orbits” generated for values inthelogisticfunction of 3 with probability withprobability Fig. 5Bifurcations generated for values inthelogisticfunction of m c . Hence, 1– beaconstantrate X is proportion ofoccupiedpatches,proportion is each unoccupiedpatch to becolonized X occupiedpatches, theprobabilityfor cX . Consequently, thechangein dX dt X a =0.5 (Fivos Papadimitriou. 2009) = 3.75(Fivos = cX (1 – Papadimitriou X ) – mX dX/dt . 2009) , is: 005.08.2010 16:20:00 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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7 4 The latter relationship impliesthat or Setting May model: May oftheLevinsA variance modelistheNee- the effects oflocaldispersion(fig. 6). of occupiedpatches, butdoesnotconsider colonization rate leadsto increasing numbers Also, thismodelpredicts that increasing remain unoccupied. ofaspecieshabitatwillalways some fraction due to itslower colonizationrate). (e.g. losses, becauseofthehabitatconstruction whereby competitor suffers thesuperior greater is interpreted asanoutcome oftheprocess, fragmented landscape. finding This unexpected speciescompetetwo inanon-homogeneously population oftheinferior competitor when increasesshowed the thathabitatdestruction With thisspatial model, [1992] Nee&May destroyed habitatareas. ofpermanently where Distheproportion Fig. 6.Graph showing ofsolutions oftheLevins curves model(Fivos Papadimitriou. 2009) dX/dt dX dt equal to zero, gives either = X cX =1– (1 – D m – c X ) – mX X

m 1 X =0 , so ecosystemic dynamics(where The basicLotka-Volterra modelofnonlinear tend to grow intheseareas.perturbations are inherently unstable,drylands because for instance, showed thatthelandscapesof these differential equations. Phillips [1993] regime,the overall stability by described throughlandscape structures changesof [Phillips, 1995],from whichmay emerge new by developing modelsofnonlineardynamics (erosion, regeneration andtectonic uplift), geomorphological landscapeevolution systems have beenusefulinanalysing analysis,ecological Lotka-Volterra complexity of complexnonlineardynamics. Aside of constitute the “standard” for theanalysis Y such asthe systems ofspeciesinteractions,describing based ondifferential equationsmodels usedynamicalsytems approaches,typically Our mathematicalmodelsinspatialanalysis model geographically complexsistuations. Yet, we seldomusesinglespeciesmodelsto TWO-SPECIES MODELS TWO-SPECIES = predator) is: Lotka-Volterra dY dt dX dt =– = aX cY – + bXY gXY . These systems . These X = prey and 005.08.2010 16:20:01 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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a =c An examplecalculationofthissystem with according to thefood conversion rate The predator rate Y hasamortality according to apredation rate The prey Xhasagrowth rate the lower left part of thegraph, over a part the lower left concentrate to in theellipsoidattractor becomes obvious:thesystem tends to term evolution ofthesystem’s behaviour shown infig. 7,from whichapossiblelong- 7 ellipsoid area). Inthelower diagram, appeartheoscillating speciespopulations Fig.7. The solutionsofanon-lineardynamicalLotka-Volterra system oftwo species( time. The calculation here iswithparameters 5 tor). The attracting region, or “attractor” isshown inthelower area oftheupperdiagram left (aquasi- = 0.95, b =g = 0,7and a b X anddepletes . 0 = c and grows andgrows Y 0 d Papadimitriou. 2009) =8,is . a =c = 0.95, level, which otherwise would nothappen. level, whichotherwise of populationsatthelandscape the survival models,species interaction soallowingfor fromthan thoseexpected non-spatial heterogeneity canleadto behaviors different landscape level, thatspatial itisremarkable, ecologicalis unstable. analysisatthe In nonzero point( equilibrium nonlinearbehavior,spectacular becausethe Lotka-Volterra systems display easily arrows). with (depicted range ofpossibleorbits b =g = 0,7andinitialvalues X and X X = prey, Y X , plottedagainst 0 Y = ) =( Y 0 =8(Fivos Y a = preda- / b , c / g 005.08.2010 16:20:01 5 ) . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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7 6 May-Leonard oftheLotka-Volterravariant modelisthe For three species( certain parameters certain three speciesbecomesevidentwhen,for amongthe ofinteractions The complexity behaviors. give to chaoticandunpredictable rise organisation. When itdestabilises, itmay may leadto formation pattern andself- stabilising withtimeand, bydoingso, it with complexsystems. Asystem may be are and stability linked Both instability Hastings, 1994]. & displays achaoticbehaviour [Klebanoff With three speciesalso, the time. growingwith closenessto with extinction show pairsofspeciesapproaching extinction Theory, becausethesystem’s trajectories from thepointofviewComplex Systems This modeldisplays anoticeablebehavior a speciesfeeding on lying atthebottom ofthefood chain, where species ecosystem,relationships inathree-species analyses: trepresents thefunctional model isequallysuitablefor complexity feeding on THREE-SPECIES MODELS AND CHAOS N-SPECIES MODELS, LYAPUNOV STABILITY dY dt = dX dt a dZ dX dt dY dt dt 1 = dZ Y Y dt model [May &Leonard, model[May 1975]: , with X = = = X = (1 – b X Y X Z istheresource species, + a (1 – {1 – (1 – a X 2 X X Z i X , ) – a , b YY X bX i X i aX and – parameters: Y b and – + a , – – 1 Z Y b aY – ), a well known ), awell known Y 1 bY – – Hastings-Powell Z X – a b – isapredator i 2 , themodel aZ bZ b XY + Z 2 ) } ) X YY YZ + Y is

a Lotka-Volterra modelis: and onlyif mustbepositive orzeroThese functions if dynamical system ofpopulationspecies V “Lyapunov functions”, usually symbolized as Besides Lyapunov exponents, there are systems. behaviorsstudy oflong-term ofcomplex Consequently, theyare usefulinthe (or to apoint)andthesystem isstable. converge to aregion ofthephasespace and, whentheyare negative, theorbits ismaintained orbits distance between exponents are zero, thenaconstant chaotic behavior. When theLyapunov and,in itsphasespace, instability possible, system displays diverging withtime orbits Lyapunov exponents are positive, thenthe are theLyapunov exponents. When the A prominent measure ofsystem stability present inthesameecosystem: a otherwords,In thechangeinpopulation differential equations, suchas: ofnonlinear byamatrix is described So for achanging landscapewhosedynamics r where More generally, for sciences). difficult inmany domainsofthenatural energy potential (which canbefrustratingly withouthaving to stability calculate itsreal they canbeemployed to explore asystem’s The usefulnessofLyapunov isthat functions must benegative. i dX X ( ij dt ij X is the interaction matrix. istheinteraction ofthisspecieswithallother i of this species modified by the interactions ofthisspeciesmodifiedbytheinteractions ( i t )) ofthespecies , which characterize the stability ofa thestability whichcharacterize r i istheinherent growth rate for dX X dt = 0andtheirderivative i = r i X n X i -interacting species,-interacting the (1 – i isequalto thegrowth j = n a ij X j j ) = n a V ij X X 005.08.2010 16:20:02 i ( and 5 j X . 0 ( 8 t X . )) 2 . 0 1 0

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or, alternatively, species population), derivative from theiterations Thus, theLyapunov exponentsare defined they are definedas: prominent measure ofstability. Typically, Hence, Lyapunov exponentsconstitute the ofthesystem’s to theorbits orbits dynamics. of convergence ordivergence ofnearby states and eachoneofthemgives therate many asthedimensionsofsystem’s its Lyapunov exponents( (repellors isgivenorbits orattractors) by the system’s divergence or convergence of overall stability regimeoverall stability ofadynamical system give oftheThese functions descriptions methods, basedon “Lyapunov functions”. byanalyticsystems couldbedescribed ofsuchlandscape-ecological the complexity from ComplexAs Systems isknown Theory, begin to surface. nonlinear modelsoflandscapecomplexity interesting challengesto thesedeterministic isprecisely atthispointthatcertain It chaotic. ( When theLyapunov exponentsare positive changes ofspecies ofpopulation divergence orbits ofnearby where 7 λ 7 >0),thesystem isunstableand/or X λ λ i is a variable ofthelandscape(e.g. isavariable

d = = dt N fX X = t t lim X t n lim n f f f m measures thespeedof X N t X X X n withtime. ln n = 1,2,..., X X X N = x ln i λ X X ). They are as fX X X X i i X n n n t n N n andthe , , study elucidates thecausesbehind these difficultundertaking. This been aparticularly analyticallyover thelastyearscomplexity has toWe modellandscape thatstriving know reason to protect it. asapotentially additional higher complexity complex thananotherandsoconsiderits whetheralandscapeismore need to know andpractically,landscape complexity we Theoretically, we need to beableto model for boththeoreticalpurposes. and practical We needto modellandscapecomplexity we willalways beableto findthem. dynamics, butwe cannotbeassured that to deriveassessmentsofalandscape’s to discover Lyapunov inorder functions sowe canalways attempt some goodluck, unsuccessfulwithout often undertaking, any dynamicalsystem canbeapainstaking possible, identifyingaLyapunov for function 2002].Althoughthisistheoretically [Pykh, set ofequationsthedynamicalsystem dynamics possible to (qualitative) itslong-term derive by meansofaLyapunov itis function, more generally, thelandscape’s) dynamics that bystudyingtheecosystem’s (and, thisrespect,itisinterestingIn to notice, behavior. long-term easier to describe problem, oflower dimension,andwithsome of theinitiallyhard problem to aneasier procedure istantamountto the “shrinking” model’s dynamicbehavior. long-term This models presented previously) predicts the case ofthenonlineardifferential equations model(suchasinthe within adeterministic from attractor Identifying alow-dimensional that ofthesystem considered. dimensionthatwould belower(fractal) than represents thelandscapedynamics)witha the dynamicalsystem (whichadequately to inthephasespaceof findattractors the challengefor landscapeanalysisis system previously referred to. Consequently, and relate to the “Lyapunov exponents” ofthe CONCLUSIONS without solving numerically the solvingnumerically 005.08.2010 16:20:03 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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7 8 5. Duarte, J. Duarte, (1997).Bushfire automata andtheirphasetransitions. 5. D’Ambrosio, D., R.(2001).ACellular DiGregorio, Automata S.,Gaudio model S.,Gabriele 4. CasadoJ.M. (2001).Coherence resonance inawashboard potential. 3. Baynes, T.M. Historical and Management: Development inUrban (2009).Complexity 2. N,Lavalle, dynamicspatial C.(2003).Modelling Barredo M.,McCormick, J.I., Kasanko, 1. measure landscapecomplexity. structural other computationalapproaches inorder to themselves. For thisreason, we have to explore constitute measures oflandscapecomplexity complex behavior inlandscapes, butdonot b) Cellular processes automata describe of information system). be acomponentofG.I.S.(geographical is yet to becreated. Ideally, thisshould programs for geographical automata a) Auniversally accepted “library” ofcomputer the following: modelling,landscape complexity we deduce To summarize, byevaluatingthemethodsof complexity”“landscape inits entirety. poselimitationsto modelling complexity oflandscape types in modellingthetwo simultaneously. Hence, thedifficulties landscapecomplexity and functional which couldcompute whether there algorithm existsanumerical models, we noticethatwe donotknow From theevaluationofthesemathematical mightfocusin landscapecomplexity on. to possible directionswhere future research difficulties, while, atthesametime, pointing REFERENCES 189. Atmosphere, for soilerosion bywater. 3), 82–86. andOpportunities. Overview Urban Planning processes: future through simulationofurban scenarios cellularautomata. 26(1),33–39. , 64(3),145–160. both Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B:Hydrology, Part oftheEarth, and Physics Oceans andChemistry structural Journal ofIndustrialEcology Theory. Landscape EcologyandComplex Systems disjointdisciplinesof thehitherto between will gradually provide usthemissinglinks etc), inways(structural, functional that refine ourmodelsoflandscapecomplexity quantitative landscapeanalysis, we needto within anoverall theoretical of framework aretogether of landscapecomplexity linked andtheoreticalUntil thepractical aspects and models. andcontinuous-spacedata discrete-time lies intheachievement ofcombination e) Acentralchallengefor future research inourdata). difficulties infindingattractors population changes, we may encounter measurements oflandscapeand/orspecies case thatwe may have temporally dense landscapechanges(even inthe functional of from ofobservations attractor timeseries d) Further, itisnotalways possibleto findan onthelandscape.interactions for spatial dynamicalsystems describing always possibleto findLyapunov functions uncomplicated procedure, butitisnot isanmodels oflandscapecomplexity c) The development ofdifferential equations  , 13(2),214–227. Int. J.Mod. Phys. Physics Letters A, Landscape and C8:171– 291(2, 005.08.2010 16:20:04 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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. Green, D.G. (1990).Landscapes, cataclysmsandpopulationexplosions. 9. D., Gabriel, Thies,C. & Tscharntke, T. (2005).Local ofarableweeds diversity increases 8. Forman, R.T.T. &Godron, M.(1986).LandscapeEcology. New York: J.Wiley andsons. 7. 11. birds R.B. onfarmland inthe I.&O’Hara, (2006).EffectsHerzon, oflandscapecomplexity 10. Guermond, Y., Delahaye, D., Dubos-Paillard, E.,Langlois, P. (2004).From modellingto Fonstad, M.(2006).Cellular automata asanalysisandsynthesisengines atthe 6. 22. Nee, and S.&May, Habitatdestruction ofMetapopulations: R.M.(1992).Dynamics 21. Murray, B. &Fonstad, M.(2007).Preface: inlandscapes. (andsimplicity) Complexity 17. S.C.,Sole,R.V.Manrubia, inrainforest criticality (1996).Self-organized dynamics. 16. Malamud, B.D., Turcotte,D.L. appliedto naturalhazards. criticality (1999).Self-organized Loehle,15. C.(2004).ChallengesofEcological Complexity. 14. Levins, R.(1969).Somedemographic andgeneticconsequencesofenvironmental J.Kolasa, (2005).Complexity, System integration to 13. change:biodiversity andsusceptibility 12. Klebanoff, A.&Hastings, A. (1994). Chaosinthree speciesfood chains. of Journal 20. May, R.M.&Oster,G.F. insimpleecological Complexity (1976).Bifurcations andDynamic May, R.M.&Leonard,19. W.J. three ofcompetitionbetween species. (1975).Nonlinearaspects 18. I.,Namatame,Matsuba, development M.(2003).Scalingbehavior process inurban of 7 9 85–93. with landscapecomplexity. Baltic states. experiment Model. interface. geomorphology-ecology Competitive Coexistence. of AnimalEcology61,37–40. Journal Geomorphology Natural Hazards 237–240. heterogeneity for biological control. 15, BulletinoftheEntomological ofAmerica Society connection. Biology,Mathematical 32,427–451. models. Mathematics SIAM JournalofApplied 165. Tokyo andhierarchical City dynamicalstructure. andFractalsSolitons 13,75–82. American Naturalist . GeoJournal Ecological Complexity Agriculture, Ecosystems andEnvironment 20,93–116. , 91(3–4),173–177. 7,523–541. , 59(3),171–176. , 110,573–599. Perspectives inPlant Ecology, Evolution andSystematics , 2(4),431–442. Geomorphology , 29,243–253. Chaos, Solitons andFractalsChaos, Solitons , 7(7),217–234. , 118(1–4),297–306. Ecological Complexity Math.Comput. , 1,3–6. , 16(1),151– Chaos , 7(2), 005.08.2010 16:20:04 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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8 0 25. Phillips, J. (1995).Nonlineardynamicsandtheevolution ofrelief. 24. Phillips, J.D. (1993).Biophysical feedbacks ofdesertification. andtherisks Pahl-Wostl,23. C.(1995). The dynamicnature ofecosystems: Chaosandorder entwined.New 31. Werner, B.T. innaturallandform (1999).Complexity patterns. 30. Turchin, P. & Taylor, A.D. inecological timeseries. (1992).Complex Dynamics 29. Sprott J.C., Bolliger, J., Mladenoff, D.J. inforest-landscape criticality (2002).Self-organized 28. Satulovsky,J.E. (1997).Onthesynchronizing mehcanismofaclasscellularautomata. (2005).Cellular automataRohde, andecology. K. 27. Pykh, Yu. 26. (2002).Lyapunov as ameasure ofBiodiversity: functions Theoretical background. 32. Wu, Anidi- 32. J. issuesandresearch & Hobbs, inLandscapeEcology: R.(2002).Key priorities Association ofAmericanAssociation Geographers York: Wiley. 289–305. evolution. Physica A Ecological Indicators 57–64. osyncratic synthesis. 102–104. 237,52–58. Physics Letters A , 2,123–133. Landscape Ecology , 297(3),267–271. scientific journals. University Press), aswell asseveral papersininternational of Geography by majorpublishers(Wiley, Cambridge scientific JournalIRGEE,hasauthored chapters inbooks He ismemberoftheEditorial Board ofthe international carried outresearch andconsultancies inmany countries. andCyber-Geography Modelling Mathematical andhehas Open University inGreece. research His work focuses on He teaches HumanGeography atthepublicHellenic (Budapest), Ph.D. (Oxford). M. Sc. (Athens), M.Ed. (Patras), M.Sc. (Paris), Ph.D. Dr. Dr. Fivos Papadimitriou 83,630–640. , 17,355–365. Oikos , 110(1),203–207. , B. Sc. (Athens), Dipl. (Athens), Science Geomorphology , 284(5411),pp. Annals ofthe Annals Ecology , 14(1), 005.08.2010 16:20:04 5 , 73, . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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Tatyana P. Kolchugina countries. Population inmore developed but growth remains highindeveloping declining from itspeakof2.19%in1963, population by 2050[United Nations, 2009].Globally, the in2012andto exceed 7 billionearly 9billion populationisprojectedThe world to reach County, GIS. use planning, zoning, UGB, Oregon, Benton Key words: widescale. and city policies are utilized intheUSAatacounty technology-aided sustainableland-use The goalofthispaperisto discusshow facilitate theprocess ofland-useregulation. Systems (GIS)areInformation usedto uncontrolled sprawl. urban Geographic have laws enacted thatprotect landfrom for oftime. alongperiod Many USStates use planningsystems have been employed environment. theUnited States, In land- of the economic growth andpreservation regulation mechanismsthataccommodate to develop land-use has becomeimportant residential andcommercial development. It human life. However, theymay belostto componentsof open spaceare important communities. Farm andforest landand to sustainlivableenvironment necessary sprawl mayand suburban threaten the in theircitiescontinuesto grow. Urban in developed countries, population population growth hasrecently decreased Abstract 1 OR 97330,USA. Tel. +1 541 7532221,[email protected] INTRODUCTION 8 TECHNOLOGY THROUGH LAND-USE PLANNING AND PROMOTING SUSTAINABILITY President, SustainableDevelopment Technology Corporation. 796Fox Pl., Corvallis, 1 Although theoverall rate of sustainable development, land- growth rate has beensteadily 1 southeast. Oregon hasanabundanceof inthe to barrenin theCoast desert Range landscape thattransitionsfrom [U.S. Census Bureau, 2008]withadiverse Oregon istheninthlargest state intheUSA needs ofthecommunities. developed zoning regulations thatmetthe of thenation,withafew exceptions, had thelate 1920s, 1933].By most McKinzeie areassuburban [Fischel, 1985; Toll 1969; spread to smallcommunitiesand quickly inlarge cities,1987]. Having started zoning [Fischler,similar restrictions 1998; Weiss, citiessoonfollowed Other practices. with into different zones according to allowable York in1916[Toll, City 1969]dividedthecity comprehensive zoning law adopted inNew the United States 1910. alittleafter The first to specificareas.activities in Zoning started land-use planninglaws thatlimitspecific residents. These demands are reflected in continue to sustainhousingneedsoftheir areas alsohave to beprotected sothey from commercial development. Residential andforestprotect farm landandopenspace to segregate different and land-usepractices itespeciallyimportant makes Urbanization [Hunter, 2000]. when three outoffive peoplewilllive incities 5billionby2030, to nearly 3.2 billionwillrise forecasts thattoday's populationof urban rural areas to thecitiesandtowns. The UN growth resulted inpopulationmigration from developed regions. andcommercial Industrial of theimmigration from thedeveloping to may alsocontinuetocountries grow because rainforest 005.08.2010 16:20:04 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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8 2 the establishment of the so-called the establishmentofso-called “ high-tech companieshave ledto of startup Recently, biotechnology giant such companies’ process. decisionmaking roleready in landplayed animportant force, strong infrastructure), development- tech companies(e.g., labor highly-qualified thesehigh- thatattract Among otherfactors Forest Nike, 1970s (e.g., that have beenamajoremployer sincethe home to andservices high-tech industries of EconomicAnalysis, 2009].Oregon isa wealthiest state intheUSAbyGDP[Bureau in 2008was$161.6billion;itisthe26th The Gross Product Domestic (GDP)ofOregon the country. one ofthemajortimberproducing state in fruit, meatand production ofgrain, grass seeds, vegetables, thatisbasedon successful agricultural sector soilsthatarefertile thesource ofahighly Oregon Planning Program were created CommissionDevelopment (LCDC) andthe and in1973,theLandConservation parties, from both andwiththesupport McCall initiative oftheRepublicanGovernor Tom naturalresources.of important Atthe growth in comingyears andpreservation 1970s. These programs targeted economic and development programs inthemid designing landconservation Oregon started while allowingeconomicgrowth. timber landandrecreational openspace planning organs to protect agricultural and for development; thisputspressure on The populationgrowth demandsnewland population ofOregon grew by33percent. increase (Figure 1).From 1990to 2008,the lower thanthatofCalifornia) itcontinuesto (for example, itisanorder ofmagnitude people in2008)[U.S. Census Bureau, 2008] in theUSPacific North West (4million Though populationofOregon isthelowest [Genentech, 2010]. of theirfacility cities) for anddevelopment theconstruction (oneoftheOregon’s Hillsboro has selected TriQuint Semiconductor ” inthearea and [Dodds Wolner, 1990]. Tektronix dairy dairy products. Oregon isalso , Intel , Hewlett-Packard, , etc.) Anumber Silicon

system. By 2007,almost7000claimsweresystem. By a result ofapplicationthelandplanning valueslostas landowners for theirproperty weregovernments required to compensate Measure 37.UnderthisMeasure, local groupsrights succeededinpassingof However,Supreme Court. in2004,property This ballotmeasure waslater struckbythe valuesdueto land-uselaws. of property should compensate landownersfor losses with theprovision thatthegovernment a result, Oregon Constitution wasamended treated bythestate’s planningprograms. As ownerswere unfairly property that private the existingsystem. Measure 7maintained of by Measure 7thatcalledfor overturning 2000,theland-usesystem waschallenged In by limitinglandavailable for development. prices inproperty andmay causerise rights property onprivate that thesystem infringes included inthesebillscontinuedto argue (UGB) Growthconcept ofUrban Boundary ofSenate Bills100and101the Critics 1976, 1978and1982. to repeal thegrowth managementlaws in the Oregon voters rejected theinitiatives bills were challengedbytheopponents, but designation for theexclusive use. farm These 101 thatsubstantiallystrengthened land year, thelegislature alsoadopted Senate Bill areas wasstrongly thesame encouraged. In to jobs. Redevelopment ofexistingurban and encouraging affordable housingclose density, improving publictransitoptions, quality, livablecitiesandtowns byincreasing The goalswere alsoto promote high- developmentbetween andconservation. Senate Bill100were to address thebalance relate to land-usepractices. The goalsofthe 1 were finallyadopted Goals. Statewide Planning Nineteen Goals directed to develop Statewide Planning by Senate Bill100[DLCD, 2008a]. The law 19 Ocean Resources.19 Ocean Resources; 17.Coastal Shorelands; 18.BeachesandDunes; 15. Urbanization; Willamette 16.Estuarine Greenway; River 12. and Services; 14. Transportation; 13.Energy Conservation; 10.Housing;11.Public9. EconomicDevelopment; Facilities 7.Areas to NaturalHazards; Subject 8.Recreational Needs; ity; Areas, andOpenSpaces;6.Air, Water andLandResources Qual- Lands; 4.Forest Lands;5.NaturalResources; ScenicandHistoric 1.Citizen Involvement; 2.LandUsePlanning; 3.Agricultural 1 ; many ofthesegoals 005.08.2010 16:20:04 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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expansion onto farm andforestexpansion onto farm lands. Inside growth.urban The UGBcontrols urban open spacebydefininglimitsfor thefuture development land, offarm forest land, and 1973 [DLCD, 2010]. The UGBconceptlimits by theOregon land-useplanninglaw in significant outcomes ofthereforms enacted The conceptofUGBisonethemost applied suggestions onhowthesegoalsmay be are accompaniedbyguidelines, whichare andmostofthem Goals are notmandatory process ofimplementingtheGoals. The inallphasesofthe citizens to participate Goals. forThe law provided opportunities whetherornottheysatisfythe determine of reviewing allcomprehensive plansto Goals. LCDC wasgiven theresponsibility satisfy alloftheapplicableStatewide Planning Each planandregulation wasrequired to ordinances, subdivisioncontrol ordinances). and implementationofmeasures (zoning choicesaboutfuture landuses)(policy information (theplandatabase),policies background inventories andtechnical own comprehensive planwhichincluded to prepare county oramendits and every city itrequiredof astate plan.Instead every Senate Bill100didnotmandate theadoption ofMeasure 37. andextent applicability 49 adopted in2007substantiallylimited the million) [DLCD, 2008b].Andfinally, Measure filed (for compensationsofapproximately $20 8 3 Figure 1.Population inthePacific Dynamics North West (USA) the UGBisneeded. revisions andnewlandcanbeincludedin sprawl. to areThe boundaries subject approaches to planningto prevent urban forcesIt citiesto applymore sophisticated development canoccuronlywithinthisline. alinedrawn aroundactually thisarea. New would beallowed.activities is This boundary adecisionontheareamake where such business, recreation, andotheruses, and assess thelandrequired for housing, new goals to theLCDC. Local governments regarding UGBsthataddress applicable have to prepare andsubmittheirproposal Under theland-usesystem inOregon, cities if suchbecomenecessary. planningandaccommodate changes serious (e.g., oftimeto 20years) promote period 1998]. The UGBlimitsare setfor anextended [Bollier,(Colorado), andLexington (Kentucky) in over 15California communities, Boulder recently in Tennessee; localized UGBs exist mandated inOregon, Washington, andmore settings.urban Nationwide, UGBsare now develop andredevelop insidetheexisting motivatesroads to andinfrastructure. It land andeliminatingtheneedto buildnew forby limitingavailability involving new insidetheboundary network transportation The UGBpromotes effective useoflandand infrastructurefor to function. acity necessary schools, fire protection andpolice, etc., i.e. all systems, utility parks, as transportation, such services, urban the UGB, landsupports 005.08.2010 16:20:04 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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8 4 Benton County with theGoals[DLCD, 2010]. programs consistent witheachotherand theplansandand agenciesto make coordination different between jurisdictions featuresthe important oflaw isstrong andstate agencies. Oneof special districts laws applyto andto local governments area covered bytheplan.Oregon’s planning controlling documentfor landuseinthe to be “acknowledged” andbecomesthe a localgovernment’s plan,theplanissaid state’s LCDC. When LCDC officiallyapproves are reviewed for bythe suchconsistency with theStatewide Planning Goals. The plans plans. Suchlocalplanshave to beconsistent needed to implementthesecomprehensive ordinances and thezoning andland-division regulations) to adoptacomprehensive plan that hasresponsibilities for land-use (orany localjurisdiction andcounty each city comprehensive planning. State law requires isachieved through local land-use policy program for land-useplanning. Oregon’s 1973, Oregon hasimplemented astrong oftheland-uselaw in theenactment After 2 km was45/ thepopulationdensity sands residing inthecounty; in 2004,approximately 30thousandhouseholdsand18thou- county’s zoning anddigital map(printed 2007]. These statements are reflected inthe towns, andruralcenters” [Benton County, and themanageablescaleofcities, areas andresource landandopenpaces settlement has beenmaintainedbetween in muchofthecounty, that thedistinction thatstillexists value theruralcharacter County continue, further residents ofBenton “The environmentally andaesthetically.” They prized economically, culturally, recreationally, continueto behighly which theyare part of mountains, valleys, rivers andwetlands of Valley. These landsandthelarger systems sustenance for residents ofthe Willamette say, “Agricultural andforest landsprovide andforest offarm to preservation land. They Comprehensive Plan have specificreference counties. Value statements ofBenton County LAND-USE LAW IMPLEMENTATION There were justover 78thousandpeopleinBenton County 2 andtheaverage 18/km housingwasdensity 2 isoneofthe36Oregon 2 . mandated byState law and donotrequire example, healthhazard annexationsare annexation ismandated byState law. For voter approval of anannexationunlessthe andthecity.county requires Charter The City jointlysetbythe publichearings mandatory Agreement includesaprovision of Fringe Urban Management The Corvallis provision for publicfacilitiesandservices.” andadequate orderly expansionoftheCity process oflandannexationallows for the Comprehensiveof Corvallis Plan states, “The that documentsthisarrangement. The City Agreement” in1990[Benton 2007] County into the Fringe Urban Management “Corvallis Therefore, entered andthecity the county (entirelyannexed orinpart). bythecity but may beunderthecity’s regulations ifit this landisunderBenton County’s jurisdiction, to another.from onejurisdiction Currently, because thislandmay potentially transition the county’s andcity’s land-useordinances UGB hasto bespecificallyaddressed in The area thecity’s between limitsandthe needs anddesires ofcitizens.” use planningandto beresponsive to the the community’s current thoughtsonland- Comprehensive Plan isintended to reflect Growththe Urban Boundary. The Corvallis controls limitsand land-usewithinthecity documentthatguidesand is theprimary Comprehensive ofCorvallis Plan oftheCity states, 31,2006.It on December “The review Council andimplemented bytheCity oftheCity’s periodic completed aspart Comprehensive Plan2010]. Corvallis was ofCorvallis, the area withintheUGB[City program to provide land-useplanningfor is alsorequired bytheOregon land-use comprehensive plan. ofCorvallis The city the city ofCorvallis the city The seatoftheBenton government, County other interested parties. businesses, officials, government andall formats) thatisavailable for citizens, private 3 in thecity. 49,322 people, 19,630households, and9,972familiesresiding Coast. As ofthecensus2000[USCensus, 2008],there were andtheOregon eastofNewport is about46miles(74km) Corvallis islocated midway inthe Corvallis Willamette Corvallis Valley; 3 , hasasimilar 005.08.2010 16:20:05 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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4 undeveloped causingthemto remaindensities orperhaps lands from beingdeveloped to urban voters preventing theproposed annexation proposals have downbythe beenturned voter approval. Many times, annexation City ofCorvallis City fees iscurrently $20)andisfree ofcharge to filingfeestransaction (GIScomponentofthe Benton GISisfundedthrough County land public, andotherinterested In parties. land-use are available to planners, general compatible datathatrelate to allissuesof GISandGIS- Benton andCorvallis, County In aids regional sustainabledevelopment. planning. andinformation This transparency for ofland-use thepurposes ofCorvallis city widely employed andthe inBenton county such information available; thistechnology is technology may significantly facilitate making issues. Geographic System (GIS) Information easily accessibleinformation onland-use public’s involvement isimpossiblewithout of landdevelopment atalllevels. The management process isacrucialelement Participation ofthepublicinland-use AND LAND-USE PLANNING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8 Personal Communication: BobRichardson, Associate Planner, 5 4 . Figure 2.Benton County OpenSource GIS Web Application GIS users. Anopensource GISapplication topography, water, photography. andaerial building footprints, housepoints, driveways), boundaries, taxassessment,addresses (e.g., transportation, include dataonsurveying, Maps Application choices in what information canbequeried. Data may choosewhatdataare displayed and Maps Application (in thiscase, the Figure oftheGISapplication part 2,theleft maps,and analysesprint ifnecessary. In spatialandtabulardataoverlays perform ismade, ausermay theselection After topographic, andothermapsapplications. zoning,election, survey,photos, aerial chosen. The choicesincludeassessment, First, aproper mapsapplicationmustbe relatedinquiries to many landcharacteristics. This applicationmay beusedto perform utilized inBenton County. of thisopensource GISapplicationwebpage assessments. Figure 2provides a “snap-shot” be downloadedandusedinlandavailability datamay ofmapsandGIS-compatible variety available on-lineviathecounty’s webpage. A 5 mapping services to thecitizens ofLinnCounty.mapping services in 2003to provide System Geographic (GIS)and Information (ELLA maps)(http://www.co.linn.or.us/webmap). wascreated It Benton usesthe EasyLandLocator County ApplicationMaps Aerial Photo andTopographic Aerial Photo andTopographic ) isthespacewhere auser (shownintheFigure 3) 5 is 005.08.2010 16:20:05 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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8 6 limits and UGB. In thisexample,limits andUGB. usingArcMap In North Western thecity between Corvallis, planning process. The studyarea wasthe such datamay beusedintheland-use applications. Figure 3demonstrates how haveMany Oregon similar jurisdictions open source orcommercial GISprograms. may beusedinother andthecity county dataprovided bythe Digital GIS-compatible application intheirwork. day, approximately 20usersemploythis employees andthegeneralpublic. Every GIS web applicationiswidelyusedbycounty created at desired andprinted scales. This analysesareAfter made, amapmay be information layers. usingselected necessary The “ Identify ” tool allowsauserto identify Figure 3.Aerial Photoand Topographic MapsApplication GIS, 9.3 primarily zoned as primarily of newhouses. The parcels inthisarea are that may be currently usedfor construction parcels to estimate thenumberofproperty limits, andzoning city were overlaid Corvallis half oftheparcels zoned the area ofthese parcels isslightlyover one- 9.5 percent) canbepotentially developed; allowable zoning ( categories that satisfyminimumlandrequirements in of housescanonlyoccuronthelandparcels and 10 acres =2.47acres) (onehectare (i.e., minimum acreage peronedwelling of5and in thestudyarea. Many otherrestrictions study area zoned 10 ). It appears, thatoutof2632parcels). It inthe UR-10 ® , data on property parcels, UGB,, dataonproperty , respectively). New construction , respectively). Newconstruction UR-5 Urban Residential and UR-10 UR-5 UR-5 and , only60(or and withthe UR-10 005.08.2010 16:20:05 UR-5 5 . UR- 0 8 . 2 0

1 0

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Plan. According to Fringe Urban “Corvallis Comprehensive ofCorvallis in theCity Part CofFigure 3showsthesamearea hazard, etc.earthquake water availability, slopestability, floodor includebutarerestrictions notlimited to may beimposedonthedevelopment. Such 8 7 Figure Analysis 4.CityLimits andUrbanGrowth (StudyArea) Boundary currently zoned as ofthestudyarea thatis if thewestern part shown inPart CofFigure 3.For example, andmay bedeveloped asjurisdiction ofCorvallis such landwillfallundertheCity landisannexed ofCorvallis, intoIf theCity currently underBenton County’s jurisdiction. Agreement”Management thisarea is UR-10 (i.e., 10 acres min 005.08.2010 16:20:07 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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8 8 design ofOregon’s land-use planningsystem across ruralOregon; thisisconsistent withthe caused ageneralized reductioninlandvalue in Oregon, land-useplanningsystem hasnot its value, there are studiesthatindicate that dramatically whileruralreal estate may lose ofbuildablelandcanrise Though theprice use planningrestrictions. pressure housingcausedbyland- onurban 1996]. Population growth couldaddto the 1997; JointCenter for HousingStudies, communities’in urban appeal[Abbott, of affordable housingandleadto decrease Zoning ordinances may involve shortage limits.of existingopenlocalspacewithincity of ruralareas, couldincludedisappearance efficient from thestandpointofpreservation development thatmaydense urban bemore 1997]; city“[Abbott, “side effects” ofmore But isnotaperfect city compact “the create more denseresidential development. growth andzoning boundaries ordinances considered inland-useanalyses. The urban residential areas are complexandshouldbe housing affordability, of andattractivity use laws, populationdynamics, landvalues, to grow. The relationships land- between (along withtheentire nation)continues The populationofOregon anditscities use. residential compared density to thecurrent Residential the city, itwillbezoned as limitation peronedwelling) annexed into COMMENTS DISCUSSION AND CONCLUDING area, whichallows more dense Extra Low Density preparation of this article. preparation ofthisarticle. forCounty) theencouragementandhelpin (Benton Departments Development colleagues atPublic Works and Community The authorexpresses sincere thanksto her land-use problems. accessible to anyone whoisinterested in implementation andmadethistechnology created fundingsource apermanent for GIS include GISfees schedules. into theirfee- It passed measures through citizens’ votes to related inOregon issues. Many jurisdictions UGBs, annexations, andotherland-use and citizens involving zoning/rezoning, governments between possible conflicts planning. mitigatesThe transparency atalllevels of can beeasilyperformed industrial, recreational andotheractivities agricultural, forest, residential, commercial, communities. for Analysesoflandavailability promotes sustainabledevelopment of on current orfuture land-usepractices decisions The transparent process ofmaking use related dataavailable to alltheircitizens. and opensource)themland- andmake in Oregon useGISapplications(commercial management decisions. Many governments ofcitizens inland-use facilitate participation possible byemployingGIStechnology to and residential growth. This became andruralspacefordesirable urban economic at alltimes. Oregon’s land-use law created supplyofvacantlandinsideUBGsterm is required bylaw to accommodate along use planningsystem isflexibleenoughand andPlantinga, 2007].Oregon’s[Jaeger land- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  005.08.2010 16:20:17 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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McKenzie, R.D.McKenzie, (1933) The Metropolitan Community. New McGraw-Hill. York. 352p. Joint Center for HousingStudies. (1986)State oftheNations’ Housing1996.Portland Jaeger, W.K. andA.J. Plantiga. (2007)Howhave Land-UseRegulationsAffected Property Values Hunter, L.M.(2000) The Environmental ofPopulation Implications 128p. Rand. Dynamics. Genentech. (2010)Available from: http://www.gene.com/gene/about/locations. [Accessed Fischler, R.(1998)Health,Safety, andtheGeneral Welfare Politics, –Markets, andSocialScience Fischel, W.A. (1985) The EconomicsofZoning Approach Laws: to Rights AProperty American Dodds, G.B. andC.E. Wollner. (1990) The SiliconForest: High Tech inthePortlandArea 1945to DLCD. (2010) DLCD. (2008b) (2007) ofCorvallis. City Bureau ofEconomicAnalysis. (2009) Bollier, D. Growth CanStop Sprawl, (1998)HowSmart guidefor abriefing fundesrs. Benton County. Abbot, C.(1983) DLCD. (2008a) REFERENCES: 8 9 Metropolitan Area Profile. Press. University Harvard Boston. in Oregon? 14 Feb. 2010]. 675–719. Design. Land-UseRegulationandCommunity in Early Land UseControls. Press. Baltimore: JohnHopkins USA.400p. Press. Society 1986. Oregon Historical 210p. http://www.oregon.gov/LCD/goals.shtml. [Accessed 10Feb. 2010]. of_claims.shtml. 2008b. [Accessed 15Feb. 2010]. ofClaims. Summary 28 Jan.,2010]. Available from: http://www.bea.gov/regional/gsp/. 2009.[Accessed 3Jan2010]. Washington, DC:EssentialBooks. Washington, DC. www.co.benton.or.us/cd/planning/comp_plan.php. [Accessed 11Feb, 2010]. Press.of Nebraska Lincoln,NE.350p. Land UsePlanning. [Accessed 3Feb. 2010]. http://www.corvallis.or.us/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=721&Itemid=1494. Oregon Department ofLandConservation andDevelopment. Department Oregon

Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development. History ofOregon’s History ofLandConservation andDevelopment. Department Oregon Oregon State University Extension Service, Special Report 1077.June. 37p. SpecialReport Oregon Service, State Extension University Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development. DLCD ofLandConservation andDevelopment. Measure Department Oregon 37, Comprehensive Plan Update–Adopted March 22 Portland Available from: http://www.oregon.gov/LCD/MEASURE37/summaries_ Available from: http://www.oregon.gov/LCD/history.shtml. [Accessed Q&A About the Land Development Code UpdateProject.Q&A AbouttheLandDevelopment : Planning, Politics, andGrowth ina Twentieth City. University Century Regional Economic Regional Accounts. US Journal ofUrbanHistory, (2007)Available from: http:// Department ofCommerce. Department Available from: Available from: N24,pp. 005.08.2010 16:20:17 5

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9 0 Weiss, M.A.(1987) and Builders: of theCommunity The Rise Realestate Industry The American ofEconomicandSocialAffairs. PopulationUnited Nations. Department Division.(2009) U.S. Census Bureau. 2008.United Population, States–States; Rico: andPuerto HousingUnits, Toll, S.(1969)Zoned Grossman American. Publishers. New York. 370p. N6, December, pp. 1–5,2005. intheState ofOregon,Management USA,” Solidmunicipal Waste, Bulletin, Information Ambio, Vol. 24,N5,pp. 258–264,1995;Kolchugina, T.P. “Approaches to Municipal Waste Kolchugina, T.P. and T.S. Vinson. “Role ofRussianForests Balance,” intheGlobalCarbon Urban LandPlanning.Urban New York: Columbia Press. University NY. 242p. Population Newsletter, June2009.20p. 2010]. Area, andDensity. Available from: http://www.census.gov/. 2008. [Accessed 14Feb. the 2007NobelPeace Prize Publications: 2008).Main (May is recognized bytheIPCC for to thesubstantialcontribution innumerous conferences. international and participated She authored over andco-authored 36scientificpublications environmental changeandsustainabledevelopment. She President ofSDTC. Herscientificinterests includeglobal and teaches GISatalocalcollege. Dr. isthe Kolchugina PublicCounty Oregon, USA) (Corvallis, Works Department attheGISDivisionofBenton1985. Since1996,sheworks 1979 (soilmicrobiology); shereceived herPh.D degree in Science ofM.V. Lomonosov State in University Moscow Tatyana Kolchugina graduated from theFaculty ofSoil 005.08.2010 16:20:17 5 . 0

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who share commoninterests ininvestigating theorganization ofassociates of supporting time. The State hasrealized theimportance adequate responses to challengesofthe to theneedofachieving it isdirectly linked specialized as educationisconstantlyrising research,economic-geographical and of geography itself, environmental and noticeable. However, theimportance roleUnion, theRGS hasbecomeless thecollapseofSoviet changes after of Russia.Becausethesocio-economic role inscience,key education,andculture hasalways playedfounded a in1845.It research organization ofourcountry, istheoldestnon-governmental The RGS Putin withaproposal to chairtheBoard. approached Prime oftheRF Minister V.V. forming Board theRGS of Trustees and President.the RGS The Congress approved majority, Shoigu theCongress S.K. elected a secret ballotandwiththeoverwhelming ScientificCouncil. on behalfoftheRGS By PresidentShoigu for astheRGS theelection andnominated Sergeisociety Kuzhugetovich thecurrent statedescribed andprospectsof AcademicianRGS, oftheRAS V.M. Kotlyakov President Honorary ofthe hisreport, In President. oftheRGS and theelection standards, development ofnewactivities, Organizations” andotherapplicablelegal Federation Law “On Non-Governmental into compliancewiththeRussian Charter the thatbring oftheRGS in theCharter organizational issues, specifically, changes The Congress washeldto address urgent of theRussianAcademy ofSciences(RAS). 2009, inMoscow, inthe buildingofPresidium washeldon17–18November (RGS) Society A SpecialCongress oftheRussianGeographic 9 SOCIETY OF THE RUSSIAN GEOGRAPHICAL THE REPORT ON THE SPECIAL CONGRESS 1 the RGS mustopenaninformation the RGS portal and educationalmanuals. For thispurpose, and create films, television projects, books, geographical information aboutRussia to disseminate isimportant activities. It has outlinedthemaindirectionsofRGS Shoigu Russia.S.K. and traditionofserving the timewhiledrawing ontheexperience new strategy of consistent withthespirit presentation, taskisto develop the RGS a attheCongress.spoke According to his President,The RGS Shoigu, also S.K. country.” theinterestswill continuetoofour serve of thenation.Iamsure work thattheRGS formation ofenvironmental consciousness environmental andgreatly tourism, assistin promote geographic science, scientificand embrace publiclife would enhanceand informational andeducationalrealms that Powerful withintheRGS. Media on Mass this couldbeachieved through theBoard impliesopennessandaccessibility,RGS and organizations. course, ofthe thework Of for youth educational projectsandsupport geographers may beusedincreation ofnew ofscientistsand andknowledge Experience natural resources, andgrow industry. tourism to combatpollution,reclaim land, protect initiatives willbelaunched. is The objective environment protection andecology prospects ofitsdevelopment: “Several andoutlinedthemain activities of theRGS the Congress. Hestressed theimportance Prime oftheRF, Minister V.V. Putin, at spoke bytheState.well supported isreturning to itsrootsSociety whenitwas Geographic thetitleofImperial carried economy. Now, thatfor theRGS alongtime nature state of andanalyzingthecountry’s 005.08.2010 16:20:18 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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9 2 urbanization. regional andstrategic planning, and of globalclimate change, socialgeography, be paidto theassessmentofconsequences process.making Greater attention should ecological, decision- political, andgeo-social geography isto provide socialvalidationfor According to N.S.Kasimov, thetaskof education for sustainabledevelopment. of Russia,andcrucialrole ofconcept nature need to andculturalheritage preserve heemphasized the geography; modern aboutthepresent-day problemsspoke of Academicianthe RGS, ofRASN.S.Kasimov State University,Moscow Vice-President of oftheFacultyThe Dean ofGeography, and socialdevelopment oftheterritories. environmental research, andeconomic entrepreneurs andallthoseengagedin for cooperationofscientists, politicians, is ableandshouldbecomeaplatform routes. According Shoigu, theRGS to S.K. anddevelopmenttourism ofnewtourist are associated projects withecological Among projects ofthenearest future, to forecastand theability naturaldisasters. industry, economy, andentrepreneurship, promoting growthpractice ofthecountry’s pursued; itsresults shouldbeappliedin be allocated. Research shouldbe work for competitionshould bestprojects youngto scientists, attract specialgrants to betransferred order to digital media.In should beformed. archivesThe RGS need that promotes environmental awareness accessible. Within ayouth chapter theRGS, more scientificdiscoveries that willmake community willbecomemorecommunity efficient. bytheState andbusiness supported actively ofthisrevitalizedand thework society in Russiaof1990s, willnowbeovercome, changes associated withsocio-economic activities ishoped thatdifficultiesinRGS It field trips. organize thematicOlympiadsandchildren’s and schoolclubactivities after to support of ourcountry. Therefore, itisimportant ofnature andculturalheritage preservation immersion ingeographical culture aimedat isyouth educationand priorities the RGS and SovietRussia.Furthermore, one of considerably essentialinthepre-revolution to increase fieldexplorationthathasbeen receive financialsupport. plans The RGS of theRussianGeographical Society”, will thematic publications, suchas “Proceedings the promotion ofgeographical knowledge; intends toThe RGS pay greater attention to are finallybeginning to emerge. of course, investments require that certain Petersburg. thisheritage, to preserve Efforts inSt. headquarters accumulated intheRGS and many otherresearchers, hasbeen Potanin,of expeditionsPrzewalski, Kozlov, atthetime and development ofitsterritories oftheformation ofourcountry the history that alarge volume ofdocumentsrelating to new trends insocietalbehavior. isknown It Archival illustrate andmuseumactivities Corresponding MemberofRAS Member ofthePresidium oftheRGS A.Dobrolyubov Sergey 005.08.2010 16:20:18 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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as awhole); all-Russian (Russia intheworld, Europe andAsia, CIS); geographical levels: intheNARisachieved atfourMapping spatial- own asindependentmapwork. the NAR,eachvolume alsostandsonits Culture”.“History. of Beinganintegral part and “Population. Economy”; Volume 4– Volume 2– “Nature.Volume Ecology”; 3– ofthe “General Characteristics Territory”; of thefollowing volumes: Volume 1– ofmapping.the subject The NAR consists existence anddevelopment, represents state, andspheres inallitsaspects of productwhere the of cartographical kind isaspecialdefense ofthecountry. It management, education,science, and applicable to allbranchesoftheeconomy, reconciled spatial-temporal information, ofscientificallyprocessedcollection and and culture ofRussia;itisthenational population, economy, ecology, history comprehensive representation ofnature, designedproduct, to provide a fundamental integrated cartographical The NationalAtlasofRussia(NAR)isa 2009,theNationalAtlas ofRussiahasbeenreleased.In regions); members oftheRussianFederation, separate printed and electronic.printed The atlashasbeenreleased formats: intwo volume has496pages. The atlasformat is43 material, indexes ofgeographic names, etc. satellite imageswithannotations, reference notes,The NARincludesmaps, explanatory andsites). conditions territories in natural, cultural, economicandother units,cities andindustrial mostinteresting 9 THE NATIONAL ATLAS OF RUSSIA 3 local (federal, theRussianFederation regional (entity oriented, specific (entity globalandEurasian (federal districts and (federal districts Ѕ 29,5cm;each

The section The section map oftheworld. Volume, physical mapofRussiaandpolitical inthecreation ofthe who participated information onorganizations andindividuals section isculminated withthechronologysection are reflected inmapsofthesection. The explorers, scientists, andprofessionals exploration bypioneers, industrialists, ancient timesto ourdays. The results of from the formation oftheRussianterritory Mapping oftheRussianTerritory” The of Geographical Names. the Territory ofRussia;Reference Data; Index Geographical Regions andSeasSurrounding Russian FederalTerritory; StructureofRussia; Formation, ofthe ExplorationandMapping grouped Introduction; into sixsections: Volume material 1containsmapsandtext andabroad. people inthiscountry institutions, aswell asfor thebroad rangeof teachers andstudentsofacademic culture, employees oftheState government, different and fieldsofscience, industry reference from publicationfor experts andscientific- informational-cartographic the Territory”. Volume 1. “General of Characteristics have beeninvolved inthiswork. affiliated withdifferententerprises agencies the Atlas. Abignumberoforganizations and compilationof managed andsupervised well astheNAR’s Board Editorial Main of Transportof theMinistry ofRussia,as Federal ofGeodesyandCartography Agency oftheRussianFederation.Government The The NARhasbeencommissionedbythe “Introduction” “Formation, Exploration and Volume 1oftheNARisan

section containssection describes describes 005.08.2010 16:20:18 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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9 4 fuel-energy, land, forest) andtheeconomy. ofnaturalresourcesbasic types (mineraland (number, national andconfessional structure), specially protected naturalareas, population geology,subsurface climate, soils, vegetation, zoningphysical-geographical ofthecountry, characterize Thematic mapsofthesection population, economy, science, andculture. physical environment, naturalresources, with generalinformation aboutRussia: material,written tables, thematicmaps The section The section pages withtheimages. and address maps, placedonthesame Satellite imagesare suppliedwithannotations ofRussia,andsatellite images.territory territories, mapsofseas, surrounding the (1:1 000and1:500000)for individual mapsatlarger scales entire Russianterritory; maps ata1:2500000scalethatcover the region at1:7500000to 1:10000scales; ofthe contains ageneralgeographical chart oftheArctic. Russian Sector Eachsubsection Russia, The Asian Part ofRussia,and The of three subsections: The European Part of ofRussiaandconsists geographical chart territory. isopenedbyageneral The section territories, andseassurrounding theRussian individuallocal and theirfinerbreakdown, its entirety, large geographical regions presents geographical mapsofRussiain Surrounding theTerritorySeas ofRussia” The section Russian Federation). (emblems andflagsofthemembers reference dataandillustrative material oneofitsmembersthrough maps, of every arrangements and administrative–territorial federal structureoftheRussianFederation the Constitution oftheRussianFederation, reflects The section products. cartographic dates ofreleases ofimportant and research (fieldandstationary) activities and level ofexploration,mostimportant territory led to changes ofthecountry’s events, whichof themostimportant

the contemporary, asdefinedby “Geographical Regions and “Federal ofRussia” Structure “Reference Data” includes

Volume 2. Nature.“The Ecology” formats:two andonaCD-ROM. printed Volume 1oftheNARhasbeenreleased in Volume. thatareobjects usedonmapsofthe language) listofallnamesgeographical presents analphabetized (Russian The geological sites. environment ofunique anddistribution of mapsonprotection ofgeological resources. includesanumber The section ofmineral and locationofthebasictypes conditions,and engineering-geological ofRussia,hydro-geological of theterritory information onthegeological structure Subsoil Resources” The section years. and vegetation for thelast150thousand andthedevelopment offauna characteristics including climaticandhydro-meteorological the geographical environment ofRussia Environment” The section Federation. and naturalresources oftheRussian oftheenvironmentgeneral characteristics reflecting material andtext cartographical The Protection; andReference data. State oftheEnvironment; Environment Resources; Vegetation; Fauna; Landscapes; Permafrost; Seas;SoilCover andLand Continental Waters; Snow, Ice, and Climate;and SubsoilResources; Relief; of theEnvironment; Geological Structure Evolution Introduction; into 15sections: andillustrative groupedtext material in thevolume. The volume containsmaps, Federation represent ofmapping objects environmental conditionoftheRussian environment, naturalresources and ofactivities. and otherkinds The physical administrative, scientific, educational intended for wideuseineconomic, “Index ofGeographical Names” “Introduction” “Evolution oftheNatural “Geological and Structure

describes evolutiondescribes of

contains cartographic contains cartographic

section containssection 005.08.2010 16:20:18 5 .

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The section The section ofRussia. the territory over ofclimaticcharacteristics distribution spatial thatreflect of mapsandcharts The section relief-forming processes. general orography, relief hypsometry, and andreflect zoning oftheRussianterritory structureand geo-morphologic describe The section The section reptiles) andbirds. animals (mammals, fish,amphibiansand ofterrestrial andaquatic on speciesdiversity The section attention wasgiven to vegetation resources. vegetative modern reflecting cover. Special The section The section the nationaltreasures ofRussia. for Russianchernozem (i.e., black soil)asone degradation. Aspecialplacewasdesignated and temperature regimes, andprocess ofsoil information onlandfertility, structure, water and ofbasicsoiltypes characteristics ongeneral includes mapsandcharts The section seawater andseacoastisalsoprovided. The information onecological conditionsof trade seaweed, andseaanimalsfish. phytoplankton, benthos, animal plankton, are presented of onmapsofdistribution ofRussia. territory The seas’ bio-resources oftheseassurrounding the characteristics on physical, chemical, andhydrological The section snow- iceaccumulation. glaciations andpermafrost andhazardous contains dataontheevolution ofmodern conditions andsnow-iceresources. It glaciologicaldescribes andgeocryological The section water resources. and underground identification ofsurface andcatchment’snetwork basinswiththe displaying hydrographicaland charts 9 5 “Top-Soil andLandResources” “Vegetation” “Sea” “Fauna” “Land water” “Relief” “Climate” “Snow. Ice. Permafrost” contains information

contains information presents mapsthat consistsofaset

has asetofmaps

contains maps The final and agreements are importance. ofprime natureinternational protection conventions ofRussiain system andparticipation thatshowthenatureMaps protection significance are ingreater described details. areas ofinternational, federal, andregional resources. Speciallyprotected natural protection andmanagementofnatural contains mapsrelated to environmental The section agriculture, andforest exploitation). (power, mining, processing, transport, ofdifferentincluding impacts industries anthropogenic ontheenvironment, impact of kinds Russia andhasmapsonvarious with dynamicsofecological conditionsin The section people are alsoincluded. assessment ofnaturalconditionlife of zoningphysical-geographical andmapsof hydrothermal seasonalphases. of Maps and dataontheirseasonalrhythms and oflandscape profileswith adescription and satellite landscapes imagesofmodern The section The section includes anumberofsubsections. Reference eachofthesections Section; Regions andRegional Development; Economy andEconomicDevelopment; Population andSocialDevelopment; oftheRussianFederation;General Description illustrations are grouped into five sections: interactions. Text material, maps, and economic systems thatthey form through population andtheeconomy andsocial- of mappinginthisvolume are Russian and otherspheres ofactivity. The objects social, economic, scientific, educational, designed for wideuseinmanagementand Volume 3. “Population. Economy” (published, andstatistical). cartographical, andsources ofterms ofinformation dictionary Russian Federation” describing modern placethatRussiaoccupy modern describing “Reference Section” “Landscapes”

“State ofEnvironment” “General ofthe Description “Environment Protection”

provides maps consists ofmaps

includes a

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9 6 conditions of market economy in the services economy intheservices conditions ofmarket information onthe provides theimportant subsection “ The markets. tosectors besoldon domesticandforeign producedproducts indifferent industrial domestic andforeign tradethatallows concludeswithmapson This subsection oftheeconomy. sectors and construction) and hunting) “secondary” (industry “primary” (agriculture, forestry, andfishing correspond to thebasicbranches ofthe inthesubsection subjects “ –Investment. Infrastructure Thematic of itsbasicspheres: – Manufacture the economy to aconsistent description of transition from thegeneralcharacteristics isbuiltonalogical ofthesection The structure Development” The section development oftheregions ofRussia. includes mapsshowingthelevel ofsocial “ subsection recreation, andsports). tourism, The (living conditionsandmunicipalservices, science, culture, andtrade)otherareas education, atlases (publichealthservices, as traditionallyreflected ingeographical status anddynamicsofitsbasicsegments, The subsection “ standard oflivingandpopulationhealth. andemployment, and cities, labourmarket and resettlement processes, urbanization population, itsdemographic characteristics andcomposition oftheDistribution are presentedthematic subjects asfollows: “ subsection the In and SociopoliticalDevelopment. Population andSettlement,SocialSphere, Accordingly, there are three subsections: environment, anddevelopment. itssocialon populationcharacteristics, Development” The section economy. geographical ofsettlementandthe factors ofitssystem, and aspects situation, territorial andgeopolitical in itsgeo-economical economic parameters, aswell aschanges socialand basedonvarious in theworld “The Economy andEconomic“The Socio-Political Developmentt Population andSettlement consists offour subsections.

“Population andSocial Social Sphere Social contains information Industrial Sector Services Sector Services ” provides the ” ” ” ” since themostancienttimes to thepresent development thehistorical ofRussia describe fields. areThe mainobjectives to consistently wide useinscientific, educationalandother budgetary federalism) budgetary and includesregions withinthelimitsof orassistancefrom thestate,of intervention prospects forlong-term development, level presence oftroubling issuesorstability, and economicdevelopment level andtype, ofRussianregionstypes (basedonsocial development. basic describes The section issuesofRussia’s long-term key regional isalsointended toThis section reflect features ofregional economy isgiven here. of large geographical areas andthebasic reflecting socialandeconomicstructure comprehensive socialandeconomicmaps component ofthevolume. of Aseries Development” The section matters). climate intheregions (includinglegal major investment programs, andinvestment structure, anddynamicsoftheinvestments, geography, thatdescribe thematic material “ subsection (includingbank)infrastructure. market The also includemapsontheinformation and the communicationsector. Newthemes has beenaddedto theinformation on society,which iscrucialto themodern of thetelecommunication infrastructure, automobile, water, etc.). The description ofitsseparate branches(railway,the context aswell networks, asin oftransport context ispresentedsector inthe anddescribed the traditionalthemes, thetransportation oftheeconomy. sectors quaternary From Sector subsection “ The product. ofitsgrossfor domestic aboutone-half sector, Russia whichaccountsinmodern Volume 4. “History. Culture” statistical). information (published, and cartographical, andsources ofterms of the dictionary The final ” and branchesoftertiary describes “Reference Section” Investment Sector

is dedicated to theregional “Regions andRegional .

is intended for Infrastructure ” presents includes 005.08.2010 16:20:18 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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Invasion and theBeginningofXIIICentury Great Migration ofPeople order: placedinchronological14 subsections The section “Culture”. is grouped into sections: two natural heritage. ofthevolumeThe material information culturaland onthecountry’s era andprovide spatial-temporal modern First Half of XVIII Century First HalfofXVIII in folklore, tradesandhandcrafts, art treasures andmaterial spiritual reflected of thecitiesandruralsettlements, special natural environment, environment historical sites,or historical-memorial butalsopristine only culturaltreasures, isolated architectural Russia inthe World. includesnot The heritage development of economic andsocial-cultural resourcesmodern thesocial- thatdetermine Cultural isoneofthemostimportant heritage people. cultural andnaturalenvironment ofRussian andrestoration ofhistorical- preservation objects, on protection anduseofheritage be usedinnationalandregional programs interactions. may ofthesection The materials relationships, andmechanismsoftheir of regional andnationalcultures, their and ways ofthespread anddevelopment ofRussia;itdemonstrates thelogicheritage information anddataonculturalnatural events. containsaggregatedThe section the growth ofwhichisbasedonhistorical phenomenon andbranchofsocialsphere cultureSection, istreated both asapublic of Russia subsections The section Century XXI PeriodSoviet century Half ofXVIII Century century; of RussianLandsinXIV–thefirsthalfXV Century XIX Century 9 7 Ancient CulturesAncient ; ;

; Russia in the Beginning of XX Century Russia intheBeginningofXX Russia in XVII Century Russia inXVII Russia in the Second Half XV–XVI HalfXV–XVI Russia intheSecond Fight forIndependence . ; and Russian in the Second HalfofXIX Russian intheSecond ; and

Cultural andNatural Heritage “Culture”

“History” Modern Culture Russia intheBeginningof ; Russian intheFirst Halfof ; Early Iron Age andthe ; ;

Russia in the Second Russia intheSecond Ancient RussiainIX Ancient consists oftwo consistsof ; “History” ; Russian inthe Mongol-Tatar ; Unification . In the. In and . objects andthechronologicalobjects table. reference data:indexes andheritage ofterms map “Cognitive Tourism andSightseeing” and heritage. isconcludedwiththe The section restoration, andreconstructionofcultural organizations engagedintheprotection, names ofinstitutions, enterprises, andpublic withthe restoration ofheritage ofobjects forwith dataonactivities protection and also provided. issupplemented The section communications withforeign is countries institutions. The information on cultural libraries, archives, andhighereducational establishments: museums, theatres, accordingactivities to therole ofcultural of maps thatreflectthesystem andtype The subsection “ Russia inWorks of National Painters maps contains etc.) addition,thissection In work, weaving-, knitting- glass-,bone-, stone-, trade, (wood-, metal-, andhandcraft folk art, architecture. The mapsalsoshowsites of architecture, andestate monumentalart, war, cultarchitecture, civilandindustrial under federal of protection, memorials sites ofarchitectural monuments historic plans). containsmapswithThe section individual sites (includingtheirdetailed andits cover theentire Russianterritory contains smallandlarge scalemapsthat Heritage ofRussia The subsection subsections. UNESCO. isalsosubdividedinto This section thatareand naturalheritage protected by Territory Maps national heritage. and educationalrespect andisviewed as valuable inscientific, economic, aesthetic, nature andculture andisrecognized as ofthedevelopment of reflects thehistory and itsenvironment, that i.e., everything treasures andspecialforms oflive nature Russia inWorks ofNational Writers World HeritageSiteswithinRussian features cultural oftheworld objects Modern Culture Cultural andNatural Vladimir S.TikunovVladimir Alexander N.Krayukhin, is thelargest and ” contains . and 005.08.2010 16:20:18 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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9 8 references; CV). authors(photo andbrief appendixes words; (asappropriate); acknowledgments; key maintext; title; abstract; shouldbecompiledinthefollowing 1. Manuscript or reviews involume upto 0,7–1author’s sheet. words). Onoccassionincoordination witheditioncanbeaccepted methodological, problem 4. is0,2–0,5ofauthor’sThe optimum volume ofmanuscript sheet(orabout3000–5000 vitae. points ofcurriculum as theCorresponding Author. We encourageauthorsto includetheirsphotograph andmain addresses, telephone andfaxnumbersemailaddresses. Oneauthorshouldbeidentified 3. Allthe may beused. 2. Papers are Englishspellingandpunctuation orAmerican accepted inEnglish.EitherBritish Board.decision oftheEditorial published,earlier oraccepted to thepublicationinothereditions, are accepted underthe according to thescopeofJournal, reviews Mater (onlyinvited) articles. andbrief 1. Authors are scientificpapers encouragedto submithigh-quality, original work: development. environment andhealth;educationfor sustainable andbiodiversity; nature conservation and environmental mapping; oil andgasexplorationenvironmental problems; regional development; appliedgeographical andenvironmental studies;geo-informatics regional environmental andclimate change;environmental regional planning;sustainable environment andnaturalresources; globaland human(economicandsocial)geography; science; fundamentalsofsustainabledevelopment; environmental management; willbe:basicsofgeography ofthejournal Among themajorsections andenvironmental interdisciplinary, welcome. theoretical andmethodological are particularly and also–onfieldstudiesinthesphere ofenvironmental science. Publications thatare for sustainabledevelopment, GIStechnology, cartography, socialandpoliticalgeography, ecologists, naturalresource specialistsinenvironmental usage, conservation, education world. Publication willbeaimedatforeign ofthejournal andRussianscientists–geographers, of geography, andsustainabledevelopment inthechanging environmental conservation of informing andcoveringtheresults ofresearch andglobalachievements inthesphere The scientificEnglishlanguagejournal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” aims II. MANUSCRIPT PREPARATION I. GENERAL GUIDELINES AIMS AND SCOPE OF THE JOURNAL ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” CONTRIBUTING TO “GEOGRAPHY, FOR AUTHORS,INSTRUCTIONS authors ofapapershouldincludetheirfullnames, positions, affiliations, postal order : authorsnames;affiliations; 005.08.2010 16:20:19 5 . ials 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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Style forStyle Author2, 2008].References shouldbecomplete inthefollowing style: (Author, shouldbedenoted inHarvard the text year) system insquare brackets,e. g., [Author1, Whenever possible, total numberofreferences shouldnotexceed 10points. References in 6. 5. file inanoriginal format MS Word, Excel, etc. numbered separately from theillustrations. Eachtableshouldberepresented asaseparate 4. should benotless300dpiinthenaturalsize. Captionsshouldbegiven astheseparate list. Adobe Photoshop (upto 6versions), Adobe (upto images 9versions). Illustrator Raster represented informats ofprograms usedfor theircreation: CorelDraw (upto 9versions), 3. 2. Authors shoulduseword processing for preparation. software manuscript 9. For expediting ofrevie must usethesymbol®or TM. authors 8. ortrademark, term toWhen usingaword beaproprietary whichisorasserted 7. Authors mustadhere to SIunits. Unitsare notitalicised. numbers. Editor(s), title,year In: publisher, inbrackets,titleofacontribution. location,inclusive page Author(s) for initialsfollowed inabook: Style contribution bylastnamefor eachauthor, forStyle books:Author(s), year in brackets,title, publisher, location,pagenumbers be sentasemailattachmentsto Authors are electronically. encouragedto submitmanuscripts Electronicsubmissionsshould style” athttp://www.geogr.msu.ru/GESJournal/author.php for Authors10. As canbechanged, Instruction please, seetheLast “Example ofmanuscript Acrobat pdffiles. electronic version withembeddedfigures“screen” oftheirmanuscripts of brackets, papertitle III. MANUSCRIPT SUBMISSION 9 9 Caption Tables Figures References shouldnotbetoo bulky. title. Eachtableshouldhave ashort Tables are to be journal articles: A journal articles: shouldbeproduced asnearto thefinishedsize aspossible. Pictures canbe

should follow thereference to figure. to namesoftables.The sameconcerns shouldbenumbered inthealphabeticalorder, usingArabic numerals. , publicationname, year, v wing ofapaper uthor(s) [email protected] initials followed bylastnamefor eachauthor, year in authors are encouragedto prepare alsoan olume /month,inclusivepagenumbers quality asquality A dobe 005.08.2010 16:20:19 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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1 0 0 “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, Circulation 300ex. Digital print 55 p. sh. Format 32 Order N52 22.07.2010 issent into print It E-mail: [email protected] Fax 7-495-9167673 Phone 7-495-9167574 Nizhnyaya Syromyatnicheskaya, 5/7,2 105120Russia Moscow andPublishingAdvertising Agency “Advanced Solutions” E-mail: [email protected] Fax 7-495-9328836 Phone 7-495-9392923 Faculty ofGeography, 2108a Gory,Leninskie 119991Russia Moscow M.V. Lomonosov State University Moscow EDITORIAL OFFICE registration: ПИМФС77-29285,2007,August 30. in sphere ofmasscommunicationsandprotection ofaculturalheritage. of The certificate ofthelegislation The magazineisregistered ofobservance inFederal onsupervision service ofGeography andInstitute University oftheRussianAcademy ofSciences FOUNDERS OF THE MAGAZINE: No. 01(03)2010 ISSN 2071-9388 DESIGN & SUSTAINABILITY” SOCIALLY SCIENTIFIC MAGAZINE ½ PRINTING 46cm/2 Faculty ofGeography, M.V. Lomonosov State Moscow 005.08.2010 16:20:19 5 . 0 8 . 2 0 1 0

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