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COVID-19 Update Log, October 4, 2020 Hawaii Public Policy Advocates/Hawaii Dental Association Date COVID-19 Update Links 10/4/20

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COVID-19 Update Log, October 4, 2020 Hawaii Public Policy Advocates/Hawaii Dental Association Date COVID-19 Update Links 10/4/20 COVID-19 Update Log, October 4, 2020 Hawaii Public Policy Advocates/Hawaii Dental Association Date COVID-19 Update Links 10/4/20 State economists project an unprecedented number of residents leaving Economists project population loss over the next couple Hawaii over the next two years, with a net population loss of 19,000. There of years: are models that show even more departures depending on the pace of the https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/10/04/hawaii- economic recovery. Estimates are that over 90,000 of nonfarm jobs will be news/economists-anticipate-hawaiis-shrinking- lost this year, and even factoring in a moderate recovery by 2023, there will population-will-decline-further-due-to-covid/ still be almost 30,000 less jobs than last year. With 70% of the state’s economy driven by consumer spending, the population loss will have a Hawaii residents showing COVID-19 message fatigue: revenue impact moving forward. https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/10/is-hawaii-learning-to- live-with-the-coronavirus/ Research shows that Hawaii residents have COVID-19 “message fatigue,” and officials are scrambling to both refresh the messaging and present it in 133 new cases, 11 new reported deaths: new modes. As the local and non-local economy reopens, there is fear that https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/10/virus-tracker-oct-3- people will let their guards down again. On one hand, as commerce 133-new-covid-19-cases-in-hawaii/ reopens officials want people out and spending to support struggling businesses; on the other hand, they want people to stay home when at all possible. These types of conflicting messages have people mentally fatigued. Some agencies are working on new modes of communication, particularly aimed at super spreader events (i.e. funerals) to visually show people via video how to still live life but do so in a safe manner. There were 133 new cases yesterday and 11 reported deaths, though eight of them occurred months ago and are just being reported now due to paperwork delays. On Oahu, the 7-day average for case counts is 87 and the positivity rate is 3.5%. While that puts the county on pace to lessen its restrictions, the true test will be in the coming weeks as the local economy and tourism reopens. 10/2/20 Hawaii hospitals are predicting a third, and potentially more devastating, Hospitals bracing for third wave of virus: wave of COVID-19 cases as the flu season is underway, tourism reopens https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/10/02/hawaii- shortly, some schools will be moving to more in-person instruction, and news/hawaii-hospitals-bracing-for-devastating-third- large gatherings are expected during the holidays. Queen’s Hospital System wave-of-virus/ is projecting 400-450 COVID admissions during both December and January; for context, August saw 341 admissions which is the peak monthly Lt. Governor estimates 8,000 visitors per day: number to this point. Officials are strongly urging residents to not gather https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/10/01/breaking- for the holidays, messaging that is sure to ramp up as Halloween, news/lt-gov-green-updates-pre-arrivals-testing-details- Thanksgiving, and Christmas approach. Lt. Governor Green estimates about said-more-clarity-is-coming/ 8,000 daily visitor arrivals when the pretest program starts in two weeks, which adds another factor in managing the disease. Green also said that he anticipates case counts to rise about 20% as the economy reopens, but most of that will not be due to tourism. He also announced that the state will only accept negative tests from pre-approved testing partners (CVS, Kaiser, Walgreens, etc.) to make the verification process easier. The seven-day average for new case counts is currently 96.6 per day. 9/29/20 Health officials acknowledged that there will be gaps in the pretest travel Gaps cited in pretravel and contact tracing program: program that is set to launch on October 15th. Because of the lag between https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/09/29/hawaii- when a test is administered and when the virus can be detected, only about news/gaps-cited-in-state-pre-travel-covid-19-tests- 80% of potential infections would be identified, leaving 20% of visitors (or contact-tracing/ returning residents) arriving to Hawaii without knowing they have COVID- 19. This point underscored a larger message officials are trying to prepare New program set to launch that provides unemployed for the public, which is that our “new normal” is there will be high case workers federal dollars to use at local restaurants: counts relative to what we saw during the shutdown, with 100 daily cases https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/09/new-program- being more of the baseline as opposed to single digits. In addition, contact hawaiis-unemployed-could-eat-for-free-at-local- tracers are reporting they are receiving meaningful information from less restaurants/ than 50% of people contacted. This is largely blamed on two factors: 1) people are not taking the disease seriously; and 2) people do not answer or 90 new cases: https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/09/virus- return calls from numbers they do not recognize. Messaging and campaigns tracker-sept-28-90-new-covid-19-cases/ are being developed to improve this statistic. The state is prepared to launch a new program that provides unemployed workers a debit-type card that allows them to purchase food from restaurants using CARES Act funds. The “Restaurant Cash Card Program” is expected to be funded at $66.6 million, pending Governor Ige’s approval, and is seen as a win-win for struggling families and restaurants. A recent survey by the National Restaurant Association found that 65% of restaurants that responded said they will permanently close if business does not improve in the next six months. There were 90 new positive cases confirmed. 9/27/20 Dr. Libby Char, the state’s new Health Director, is urging the public to State worried about upcoming flu season: remain vigilant during the upcoming flu season. The Department of Health https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/09/27/hawaii- is estimating as many as 10,000 cases and 1,000 deaths related to news/new-health-director-warns-of-viral-double-threat/ pneumonia and influenza. A goal is to have 80% of the community receive the flu vaccine. Dr. Char is echoing a common call from her predecessor, Oahu beaches begin to fill up: saying that ultimately defeating the disease requires the public to adhere to https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/09/27/hawaii- social distancing, as difficult as that may be for a community that is used to gathering. To that end, there has been a visible increase in beach use on news/oahuans-flock-to-beaches-as-city-reopens-outdoor- Oahu now that restrictions have been loosened, though for the most part spaces-to-small-groups/ groups have been small and social distancing has been common. Safe Travels online application still working out the kinks: With just 18 days to go until the reopening of tourism with a pre-test, https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/09/27/hawaii- officials are scrambling to work out the kinks in Safe Travels, the online news/officials-scramble-to-fix-bugs-in-safe-travels- application that collects visitor information to enforce public safety before-more-travelers-return-to-hawaii/ measures, including quarantine and contact tracing. Two of the biggest issues are the lack of real time information and the inability to verify 127 new cases, 4 additional deaths: negative COVID-19 tests. Also, visitors in quarantine without access to cell https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/09/virus-tracker-sept- phones or computers will have to call in for daily check-ins. 26-127-new-covid-19-cases-and-4-deaths-in-hawaii/ There were 127 new cases and four additional deaths. 9/25/20 A recently released economic forecast from the University of Hawaii paints Economic forecast paints the picture of a slow recovery, the picture of a slow economic recovery, with estimates of a sluggish 1.2% at best: gain in 2021 assuming there is decent state management of COVID-19. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/09/25/hawaii- There are projections for higher rates of growth that are largely depending news/significant-2021-hawaii-economy-rebound-not-in- on hypothetical federal aid as well as projections for steep declines if there the-forecast/ are additional economic shutdowns. Unemployment is projected to be 9.7% next year, down from the 12.4% rate this year. Economists project a modest Hawaiian Airlines announces drive-through COVID-19 jump to 4.7 million visitors in 2021, followed by 7.9 million in 2022 and 8.9 testing program in Los Angeles and San Francisco: million in 2023. The fastest growing industry in 2020 has been military https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/09/25/breaking- construction. Real estate remains stable. All projections came with the news/hawaiian-airlines-to-offer-drive-thru-covid-19- caveat that the economy is unusually unpredictable as situations caused by testing-in-mainland-labs-exclusively-for-its-guests/ COVID-19 are fluid. 90 new cases, 2 additional deaths: Hawaiian Airlines announced they are working on partnerships in Los https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/09/virus-tracker-sept- Angeles and San Francisco with Worksite Labs to set up sites near the 24-90-new-covid-cases/ airports for Hawaii travelers to take drive-through COVID-19 tests. A 36- hour result would come at a cost of $90 while a same day result would be $150. The airline said the goal is to ensure access for interested travelers so that testing is not an impediment.
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