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Introduction 1 Development of Threat Perception Notes Introduction 1Ian Anthony, The Arms Trade and Medium Powers: Case Studies of India and Pakistan, 1947–1990 (London: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992), pp. 21–81. 2Ibid. pp. 137–45. 3Ibid. pp. 7–8, 100. 4Ibid. pp. 5, 8, 16–17. 5 Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, Pakistan’s Defense Policy, 1947–58 (London: Macmillan, 1990), pp. 105–55. 6 Saadet Deger and Somnath Sen, ‘Military Security and the Economy: Defense Expenditure in India and Pakistan’, in Keith Hartley and Todd Sandler, The Economics of Defense Spending (London: Routledge, 1990), p. 200. 7 Robert G. Wirsing, Pakistan’s Security under Zia, 1977–1988 (London: Macmillan, 1991), pp. 81–142. 8 Akhtar Ali, Pakistan’s Nuclear Dilemma (New Delhi: ABC Publishing House, 1984), pp. 1–20, 61–87. See also, Ian Anthony, op. cit., pp. 153–69. Shlomo Aronson with Oded Brosh, The Politics and Strategy of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East (New York: State University of New York, 1992), p. 261. Muhammad Zafar Iqbal Cheema, Indian Nuclear Strategy, 1947–91 (London: PhD thesis submitted to the University of London, August 1991), pp. 155–8. Martin Van Creveld, Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of Conflict (New York: Free Press, 1993), pp. 85–6. Zeba Moshaver, Nuclear Weapons Proliferation in the Indian Subcontinent (London: Macmillan, 1991), pp. 60–76, 153–4. 9 Ashok Kapur, Pakistan’s Nuclear Development (London: Croom Helm, 1987), pp. 100, 108–09, 194–5. 10 Hasan-Askari Rizvi, ‘Factors Shaping Pakistan’s Arms Production Programme’, Strategic Digest (New Delhi: May, 1989), pp. 538–42. See also Michael Brzoska and Thomas Ohlson, Arms Production in the Third World (Stockholm: SIPRI, 1986), pp. 264–8. Nazir Hussain, Defense Production in the Muslim World (Karachi: Royal Book Company, 1989), pp. 33–45. 11 Ron Mathews, Country Survey IV: Pakistan Defense and Peace Economics (York: V, 1994). 1 Development of Threat Perception 1Interview with Lt General (Retd.) Hameed Gul and Lt General (Retd.) Kamal Matinudin (Rawalpindi: 15/05/94 and 23/02/94). 2 Rodney W. Jones, ‘The Military and Security in Pakistan’, in Craig Baxter (ed.) Zia’s Pakistan: Politics and Stability in a Front Line State (Lahore: Vanguard, 1985), p. 34. 203 204 Notes 3Interview with Professor Stephen Cohen (Nathiagali: 16/05/94). 4 Raja Anwar, The Terrorist Prince (Lahore: Vanguard, 1998), p. 41–5. 5Oliver Roy, The Lessons of the Soviet/Afghan War (London: IISS, Adelphi Paper 259. Summer 1991), p. 3. 6 Anatoly Dobrynin, In Confidence (New York: Random House, 1995), p. 434–43. 7Interview with the Director of IDSA, India, Air Commodore (Retd.) Jasjit Singh (London: 15/02/95). 8 Louis Dupree, ‘Pakistan and the “Afghan Problem”’ in Craig Baxter and Syed Raza Wasti, Pakistan Authoritarianism in the 1980s (Lahore: Vanguard, 1991), p. 59. 9 Gulf Crisis 1990, Rawalpindi: Army GHQ Publication. For reference see the Times (London: 14/01/92). 10 S.M. Burke, and Lawrence Ziring, Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: An Historical Analysis (Karachi: Oxford, 1990), p. 460. 11 Selig S. Harrison, and Geoffrey Kemp, India & America. After the Cold War (Washington, D.C.: Report of the Carnegie Endowment Study Group on US–Indian Relations in a Changing World Environment, 1993), p. 19. 12 Zafar Iqbal Cheema, India’s Nuclear Strategy, 1947–91 (London: PhD thesis presented at the Department of War Studies, King’s College, University of London, 1991), p. 235. 13 Raju G.C. Thomas, ‘The Growth of Indian Military Power: From Sufficient Defense to Nuclear Deterrence’, in Ross Babbage and Sandy Gordon, India’s Strategic Future. Regional State or Global Power? (London: Macmillan, 1992), pp. 41–3. 14 Mehnaz Isphani, Pakistan: Dimensions of Insecurity (London: IISS, Adelphi Paper 246. Winter 1989–90), p. 30. 15 Interview with Brig (Retd.) Noor Hussain (Rawalpindi: 09/11/93). 16 Robert G. Wirsing, India, Pakistan and the Kashmir Dispute (London: Macmillan, 1994), pp. 208–11. 17 Interview with Director IDSA, India, Air Commodore (Retd.) Jasjit Singh (London: 15/02/95). 18 Interview with Lt General (Retd.) Rahim–u-Din Khan (Rawalpindi: 07/02/94). 19 Ibid. This idea was also subscribed to by the former Chief of General Staff, Lt General (Retd.) Farrukh Khan (Rawalpindi: 29/03/94). 20 Interview with the Director of IDSA, India, Air Commodore (Retd.) Jasjit Singh (London: 15/02/95). 21 Interview with the then DG (Military Operations)-Pakistan, Maj. General Prevaiz Musharaf (Rawalpindi: 29/03/94). 22 Interview with Lt General (Retd.) Hameed Gull (Rawalpindi: 15/05/94). 23 Zafar Iqbal Cheema, op. cit,, p. 199. 24 Foreign Affairs, XXXIX (7), (July 1990), p. 91. 25 Strategic Analysis, (March 1990), pp. 1274–7. 26 Jane’s Defence Weekly (London: 2 December 1989), p. 1230. 27 Chandra B. Khanduri, ‘The Zarbe Momin and Changed Pak Perspective: An assessment’, Strategic Analysis, XII (7), (New Delhi, March 1990), p. 1277. 28 K. Subrahmanyam, ‘Pak Offensive–Defensive Talk is Premature’. Times of India, (31/12/89). Notes 205 29 Interview with Lt General (Retd.) Alam Jan Mehsood (Rawalpindi: 22/02/94). 30 John Kaniyalil, ‘Zarbe Momin: Pakistan’s Show of Offensive Defense’, Foreign Affairs Reports XXXIX (7), (July 1990), p. 86. 31 See discussion in the Henry L. Stimson Center Occasional Paper No. 17, (July 1994), p. 21. 32 Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (07/08/92), p. 39. See also Far Eastern Economic Review, (30/04/92), p. 25. 33 Alastair Lamb, Kashmir. A Disputed Legacy, 1846–1990 (Hertfordshire: Roxford, 1991), pp. 322–41. 34 Times of India (11/01/90). 35 Robert G. Wirsing, op. cit., p. 155. 36 Interview with Maj. General Muhammad Safdar (Lahore: 03/04/94). (He was GOC at that time.) See also, Robert G. Wirsing, op. cit., p. 122. 37 Interview with Dr Mehboob–ul–Haq (Islamabad: May 1997). 38 Hasan-Askari Rizvi, Pakistan and the Geostrategic Environment (New York: St Martin’s, 1993), p. 39. 39 Ravi Rikhye, The Militarisation of Mother India (New Delhi: Prism, 1990), p. 34. 40 Robert G. Wirsing, Pakistan’s Security Under Zia, 1977–88 (London: Macmillan, 1991), p. 89. 41 Robert G. Wirsing, ‘Pakistan’s Security Predicament’, Defense Journal (Karachi: August, 1985), p. 17. 42 Raju G.C. Thomas, op. cit., p. 52. 43 The Military Balance, 1981–82 (London: IISS, 1981), pp. 80, 86. 2The Official Decision-Making System 1 General (Retd.) Mirza Aslam Baig, Restructuring the Higher Defense Organisation (Rawalpindi: Friends, 1993) p. 2. 2 General (Retd.) Muhammad Musa, My Version: India-Pakistan War, 1965 (Lahore: Wajid Alis, 1983), pp. 2–3. See also, Sir James Morrice, Pakistan Chronicle (Karachi: Oxford, 1993), p. 132. 3 General (Retd.) Mirza Aslam Baig op. cit., p. 3. 4 Pakistan’s White Paper on Higher Defense Organisation, Strategic Digest (New Delhi: June, 1976). 5 Brig. (Retd.) Karrar Ali Agha, ‘Concept of Supreme Command: A Dangerous Duality-II’, Nation (Lahore: 04/12/89). 6 See article 243 (1A) of the 1973 Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. See also, Ian Anthony, The Arms Trade and Medium Powers. Case Studies of India and Pakistan, 1947–1990 (London: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992), pp. 17. 7 Franklyn A. Johnson, Defense by Ministry (London: Duckworth, 1980), pp. 54, 107. 8 David M. Lampton, ‘A Plum for a Peach: Bargaining, Interest and Bureaucratic Politics in China’, In Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and David M. Lampton (eds), Bureaucracy, Politics and Decision Making in Post-Mao China (Berkeley: University of California, 1992), p. 9. 206 Notes 9 David S. Sorenson, ‘Fewer Dollars and More Reform? Defense Acquisition in the United States after the Cold War’, Security Studies, II (2), (Winter 1992). 10 Interview with General Shamim Alam Khan (Rawalpindi: 21/03/94). 11 The Combat Development directorate responsible for evaluating weapons technology was re-designated in 1998–99 as the Directorate of Strategic Development. 12 Interviews with DCAS (Operations) Air Marshal Abbas Khattak (Rawalpindi: 18/05/94), and DCNS (Operations) Rear Admiral Obaidullah Khan (Islamabad: 16/04/94). See also, The Story of the Pakistan Air Force (Islamabad: Shaheen Foundation, 1988), pp. 13–14. 13 E.E. Chaffee, ‘Three Models of Strategy’ Academy of Management Review, (10/1985), p. 1. 14 David Braybrooke and Charles E. Lindblom, A Strategy of Decision: Policy Evaluation as a Social Process (London: Macmillan, 1970), pp. 29–61. 15 Agha Shahi, Pakistan’s Security and Foreign Policy (Lahore: Progressive, 1988), p. 218. 16 Interview with Lt General (Retd.) K.M. Arif (Rawalpindi: 14/11/93). 17 See the section on defense in the Annual Compilation of Appropriation Accounts, 1980–92 (Islamabad: Ministry of Finance). 3 Pakistan’s Power Politics and Defense Decision-Making 1 Mehnaz Isphani, Pakistan: Dimensions of Insecurity, Adelphi Papers 246 (London: IISS, Winter 1989–90), p. 32. 2 The News (Lahore: 15/02/88). 3 Gavin Kennedy, The Military in the Third World (New York: Charles Scribner’s, 1974), p. 89. 4 Kamal Azfar, ‘Constitutional Dilemmas in Pakistan’, in Shahid Javed Burki and Craig Baxter (eds) Pakistan Under the Military: Eleven Years of Zia ul-Haq (Boulder: Westview, 1991), p. 69. 5These are schools that exist only on papers with no physical existence and are a clear example of corruption in the establishment. 6Interview with Lt General (Retd.) Hameed Gull (Rawalpindi: 15/05/94). 7Interview with Moen Aftab (Rawalpindi: 08/02/94). 8Ian Anthony, The Arms Trade and Medium Powers. Case Studies of India and Pakistan, 1947–90 (London: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992), p. 19. 9 Ayesha Jalal, The State of Martial Rule (Lahore: Vanguard, 1991) and Gavin Kennedy, op. cit. 10 Interview with Lt General Muhammad Sharif (Rawalpindi: 24/02/94). 11 Interview with Lt General (Retd.) Muhammad Iqbal (Rawalpindi: 28/02/94). 12 Interview with Admiral (Retd.) Iftikhar Sirohey (Islamabad: 27/02/94). 13 Interview with General Shamim Alam Khan (Rawalpindi: 21/03/94).
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