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Original Article, Vol. 9, No. 1, Spring, 2021, Pp 51-66

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Original Article, Vol. 9, No. 1, Spring, 2021, Pp 51-66 Original Article, Vol. 9, No. 1, Spring, 2021, pp 51-66 Desert Management www.isadmc.ir Iranian Scientific Association of Desert Management and Control Predicting Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Sand Dunes Expansion Using CA-Markov Model (Case Study: Southeastern Coastal Desert of Iran) H. Petrosians1, A. A. Nazari Samani2*, A. Daneh Kar3, N. Mashhadi4 1. Ph.D. Student of Environmental Sciences, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran. 2. Associate Professor, Department of Arid and Mountainous Region Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran. 3. Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran. 4. Assistant Professor, International Desert Research Center, University of Tehran, Iran. * Corresponding Author: [email protected] Received date: 03/03/2021 Accepted date: 23/05/2021 Abstract Due to the intense and unprincipled changes in land use, it is necessary to detect land cover/use change over time using satellite imageries for sustainable land management. This study aims to monitor land use and land cover changes, model and predict their status in the next 15 years in Jagin plain, Jask coastal desert. In this study, Landsat satellite images of 1987, 2003 and 2018 were used to detect changes. After applying geometric and atmospheric corrections on the images, land use maps of each year at 11 land use /land cover classes including farmlands, aquaculture, erg, halophyte, mangrove, habitable zones, nebka, vegetation affected by water flow vegetation (rangeland), bare lands, were prepared using hybrid classification method. The Markov chain forecasting model was used to validate the model in the first stage, and was used in the second stage to predict land cover/land change in 2033. Comparison of the simulated map of 2018 and the real map with the Kappa coefficient of 83% confirmed the capability of the Cellular Automata Markov Chain in predicting of land cover/land changes. According to the results, in 2032, agriculture lands in the region will have an upward trend and grow by 74% compared to 2018. Habitable zones, marine access network and aquaculture lands will also increase during the study period. In the study area, vegetation and riverbed vegetation areas show a downward trend and will mainly converted to agricultural lands. Sand dunes, which are among the main threats to people and mangrove forests, will be extended by 2032, threatening the southern part of Sorglam village and the eastern part of the mangrove forest. Keywords: Change Detection; Landsat; Landuse/cover, CA Markov chain; Makran مقاله پژوهشی، سال نهم، شماره اول، بهار 0011، صفحات 10 تا 22 نشريه مديريت بيابـان www.isadmc.ir اوجمه علمي مديريت ي كىترل مىاطق بياباوي ايران پیصبیىی تأثیز تغییز کاربزي ي پًضص اراضی بز گستزش تپٍَاي ماسٍاي در بیابانَاي ساحلی جىًب ضزق ایزان با استفادٌ اس مذلCA-Markov ٞست٣ پغشٚس٥ب٘س1، ف٣ّ اوجش ؾ٘ش٢ سبٔب2٣٘*، افط٥ٗ داٝ٘ وبس3، ٘بغش ٔطٟذ4٢ 1. دا٘طد٢ٛ دوتش٢ ٔح٥ظ ص٤ست -آٔب٤ص سشص٥ٔٗ، دا٘طىذ٠ ٙٔبثـ عج٥ق٣ دا٘طٍبٜ تٟشاٖ، ا٤شاٖ. 2. دا٘ط٥بس دا٘طىذ٠ ٙٔبثـ عج٥ق٣ دا٘طٍبٜ تٟشاٖ، ا٤شاٖ. 3. استبد دا٘طىذ٠ ٙٔبثـ عج٥ق٣ دا٘طٍبٜ تٟشاٖ، ا٤شاٖ. 4. استبد٤بس ٔشوض تحم٥مبت ث٥ٗ ا٣ِّّٕ ث٥بثبٖ دا٘طٍبٜ تٟشاٖ، ا٤شاٖ. * ٤ٛ٘سٙذ٠ ٔسئ[email protected] :َٛ تاریخ دریافت: 13/12/1399 تاریخ پذیزش: 1400/03/02 چکیذٌ ثب تٛخٝ ثٝ تغ٥٥شات ٌستشدٚ ٜ غ٥شاغ٣ِٛ وبسثش٢ اساض٣، آضىبسسبص٢ تغ٥٥شات پٛضص سشص٥ٔٗ ٚ وبسثش٢ اساض٣ دس عَٛ دٚسٜٞب٢ صٔب٣٘ ثب استفبدٜ اص تػب٤ٚش ٔبٛٞاسٜا٢، ثشا٢ ٔذ٤ش٤ت پب٤ذاس ٙٔبثـ عج٥ق٣، أش٢ ضشٚس٢ است. پژٞٚص حبضش ثب ٞذف پب٤ص تغ٥٥شات وبسثش٢ اساض٣، ٔذَسبص٢ ٚ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ ٚضق٥ت آٖ ٞب دس 15 سبَ آٙ٤ذٜ دس سٛاحُ ث٥بثب٣٘ خبسه ( دس٤ب٢ فٕبٖ) ا٘دبْ ضذ. ثٛؾٙٔٝس آضىبسسبص٢ تغ٥٥شٞب اص تػب٤ٚش ٔبٛٞاسِٙ ٜذست سبَٞب٢ ٚ 1382 ،1366 1397 استفبدٜ ضذ. پس اص ا٘دبْ تػح٥حٞب٢ ٙٞذس٣ ٚ خ٢ٛ ثش س٢ٚ تػب٤ٚش، ٘مطٝ وبسثش٢ ٔشثٛط ثٞ ٝش سبَ دس لبِت ٚ 11احذ وبسثش٢ ٚ پٛضص اساض٣ ثب استفبدٜ اص سٚش عجمٝثٙذ٢ تشو٥ج٣ تٝ٥ٟ ضذ. ٔذَسبص٢ تغ٥٥ش وبسثش٢ ثب ثٝوبس٥ٌش٢ ٔذَ سَّٞٛب٢ خٛدوبس ص٘د٥ش٠ ٔبسوٛف دس ٔشح١ّ اَٚ ثشا٢ غحت سٙد٣ ٔذَ ٚ دس ٔشحّٝ دْٚ ثشا٢ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ وبسثش٢ اساض٣ دس سبَ 1412 ا٘دبْ ضذ. اسص٤بث٣ ٔمذاس تغبثك ٘مطٝ ضجٝ٥سبص٢ ضذٜ سبَ ٚ 1397 ٘مطٚ ٝالق٣ ثب ضش٤ت وبپب٢ 83/0 ٘طبٖ داد ٔذَ سَّٞٛب٢ خٛدوبسص٘د٥شٜ ٔبسوٛف، ٔذ٣ِ ٙٔبست ثشا٢ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ تغ٥٥شپز٤ش٢ وبسثش٢ اساض٣ است. ثش اسبس ٘تب٤ح ثٝدست آٔذٜ، ٔطبثٝ ثب سٚ٘ذ تغ٥٥شات 30 سبَ اخ٥ش، دس سبَ 1412 وطبٚسص٢ دس ٙٔغمٝ سٚ٘ذ٢ غقٛد٢ خٛاٞذ داضت ٚ ٘سجت ثٝ سبَ 1397 سضذ 74% خٛاٞذ داضت. ٔسبحت سىٛ٘تٍبٜٞب، ضجىٝ دستشس٣ دس٤ب٣٤ ٚ وبسثش٢ آثض٢پشٚس٢ ٥٘ض دس ا٤ٗ دٚسٜ افضا٤ص خٛاٞذ ٤بفت. دس سبَ 1412، ٔسبحت پٛضص ٔشتق٣ ٚ پٛضص ٥ٌب٣ٞ ٛٔخٛد دس ثستش سٚدخبٝ٘ داسا٢ سٚ٘ذ وبٞط٣ ٚ ث٥طتش ثٝ سٕت تجذ٤ُ ثٝ صٞٗ٥ٔب٢ وطبٚسص٢ خٛاٞذ ثٛد. ٔسبحت تپٞٝب٢ ٔبسٝا٢ دس سبَ 1412، 4/33% افضا٤ص خٛاٞذ ٤بفت. ا٤ٗ افضا٤ص ٛٔخت خٛاٞذ ضذ وٝ ثخص خٛٙث٣ سٚستب٢ سٛسٌّٓ ٚ ثخص ضشل٣ خٍُٞٙب٢ ٔبٍ٘شٚ دس ٔقشؼ حشوت ٚ خبثٝ خب٣٤ ٔبسٞٝب٢ سٚاٖ، آس٥ت ثجٙٙ٥ذ. ٘تب٤ح ا٤ٗ پژٞٚص ٘طبٖ دٙٞذٜ آٖ است وٝ دس غٛست٣ وٝ سٚ٘ذ تٛسقٚ ٝ تغ٥٥ش وبسثش٢/پٛضص اساض٣ ٕٞبٙ٘ذ 30 سبَ لجُ ثبضذ، ٙٔبعك ص٤بد٢ دس ٔقشؼ تٟذ٤ذ ٚ آس٥ت حشوت ٔبسٞٝب٢ سٚاٖ لشاس خٛاٙٞذ ٌشفت ٚ ثشا٢ وٙتشَ ٚ ٔذ٤ش٤ت آٖ ﻻصْ است تب الذأبت ﻻصْ ٛٔسد تٛخٝ لشاس ٥ٌشد. ياصگان کلیذي: آضىبسسبص٢ تغ٥٥شات؛ ِٙذست؛ پٛضص/وبسثش٢ اساض٣؛ سَّٞٛب٢ خٛدوبس؛ ٔىشاٖ 35 نطريه مديريت بيابان، سال نهم، ضماره اول، بهار 0011، صفحات 30 تا 66 ممذمٍ س٤ٚىشدٞب ٚ فٗآٚسٞ٢ب٢ ص٤بد٢ تبوٖٛٙ ثشا٢ افضا٤ص سش٤ـ خٕق٥ت خٟبٖ ٚ افضا٤ص فقب٥ِتٞب٢ ٔذَسبص٢ ٚ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ تغ٥٥شات وبسثش٢ ص٥ٔٗ استفبدٜ ا٘سب٣٘، ثس٥بس٢ اص وطٛسٞب٢ خٟبٖ سا ثب تغ٥٥شات سش٤ـ ٚ ضذٜ است. ٔذَٞب٢ س٤بض٣ ٔبٙ٘ذ ٔذَٞب٢ خغ٣ ٚ ٌستشدٜ دس استفبدٜ اص ص٥ٔٗ سٚثشٚ وشدٜ است. ا٤ٗ استبت٥ه، ٔذَٞب٢ آٔبس٢ ٔبٙ٘ذ ٔذَٞب٢ سٌشسٛ٥ٖ تغ٥٥شات غ٥ش اغ٣ِٛ، ثٝ تغ٥٥ش اٍِٞٛب٢ س٥ٕب٢ سشص٥ٔٗ ٚ ِدست٥ه، ٔذَٞب٢ س٣ِّٛ ٔبٙ٘ذ ٔذَٞب٢ خٛدوبس 2 تأث٥شٞب٢ ٙٔف٣ ثش ٔح٥ظص٤ست ٙٔدش ٣ٔضٛد ٚ تقبدَ س٣ِّٛ 1، ص٘د٥شٜ ٔبسوٛف ، ٔذَٞب٢ پ٥طشفتٝ ضجىٞٝب٢ عج٥قت سا ثٝ عٛس ٔستم٥ٓ ٚ غ٥شٔستم٥ٓ تٟذ٤ذ ٣ٔوٙذ فػج٣ ٚ ٔذَسبص٢ ثب استفبدٜ اص س٤ٚىشد فبُٔ ٔجٙب اص )7(. ثشٚص ٔخبعشات ثْٛ ضٙبخت٣ چٖٛ ث٥بثبٖصا٣٤، خّٕٝ سٚشٞب٢ ٔذَسبص٢ ٚ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ وبسثش٢ اساض٣ فشسب٤ص خبن، وبٞص ضذ٤ذ ٙٔبثـ خ٣ٍّٙ ٚ وبٞص تؿٛٙ است )13(. اص ث٥ٗ سٚشٞب٢ ٔقشف٣ ضذٜ، پشوبسثشدتش٤ٗ ص٤ست٣ اص د٤ٍش پ٥بٔذٞب٢ استفبدٜ ٘بدسست ٚ غ٥ش اغ٣ِٛ سٚش ٔذَ خٛدوبسس٣ِّٛ ص٘د٥شٜ ٔبسوٛف است، ا٤ٗ ٔذَ اص ص٥ٔٗ است )48(. تغ٥٥شات اساض٣ دس وطٛسٞب٢ دس حبَ ثٝ د٥ُِ س٤ٚىشد اص پب٥٤ٗ ثٝ ثبﻻ، ٔذَسبص٢ ثب دلت ثبﻻ ٚ تٛسقٝ، ثٝ د٥ُِ فطبس ث٥طتش افضا٤ص خٕق٥ت ٚ تﻻش ثشا٢ ا٘قغبفپز٤ش٢ ثٝ عٛس ٔىشس دس پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ استفبدٜ آٙ٤ذٜ اص استخشاج حذاوثش ٥ٔضاٖ ت٥ِٛذ اص ٙٔبثـ ٛٔخٛد، ٘سجت ثٝ ص٥ٔٗ ٚ تغ٥٥ش پٛضص ص٥ٔٗ استفبدٜ ضذٜ است )33(. دس سب٤ش وطٛسٞب ٔخشةتش ٣ٔثبضذ ٚ ثش سغح ص٥ٔٗ تأث٥شات ا٤ٗ سٚش ٔذَ تح٥ُّ ص٘د٥ش٠ ٔبسوٛف وٝ ٤ه س٤ٚىشد ث٥طتش٢ داسد )ؾ٘ .)13بست ثش ا٤ٗ تغ٥٥شات ٔح٥غ٣، ٤ه ٔذَسبص٢ تػبدف٣ ٚ ثش پبٝ٤ ٔبتش٤س تغ٥٥شات است ٚ خض اغ٣ّ ثشا٢ ٔذ٤ش٤ت پب٤ذاس ٙٔبثـ عج٥ق٣ است ٚ ٘طبٖ ٔذَ خٛدوبس س٣ِّٛ وٝ ثش پبٝ٤ سٚاثظ ٔىب٣٘ است، دٙٞذٜ ٘حٜٛ تقبٔﻻت ا٘سبٖ ثب ٔح٥ظ است وٝ ٣ٔتٛا٘ذ دس ٕٞضٔبٖ ثٝ وبس ٌشفتٝ ٣ٔضٛ٘ذ. ٔذَ ٔبسوٛف ثب استفبدٜ اص استفبدٜ اغ٣ِٛ اص ٙٔبثـ عج٥ق٣ سٍٞطب ثبضذ )3(. تدضٚ ٝ٤ تٛسقٝ ٤ه ٔبتش٤س احتٕبَ، ا٘تمبَ تغ٥٥شات وبسثش٢ ص٥ٔٗ تح٥ُّ تغ٥٥شات ٔح٥غ٣ ضبُٔ ثشآٚسد و٣ٕ دس ٥ٔضاٖ اص صٔبٖ 1 ثٝ صٔبٖ 2 سا ٘طبٖ ٣ٔدٞذ وٝ ثـٝ فٙـٛاٖ افضا٤ص ٤ب وبٞص ؿٛ٘ ٔق٣ٙ٥ اص وبسثش٢ ٚ پٛضص ص٥ٔٗ دس پب٤ـٝا٢ ثشا٢ ٘مطٝسبص٢ دٚسٜٞب٢ صٔـب٣٘ آٙ٤ـذٜ ٔـٛسد ٤ه ٔىبٖ خبظ است )37(. ا٤ٗ أش ٔجت٣ٙ ثش ٔمب٤سٝ اسـتفبدٜ لـشاس خٛاٞذ ٌشفت. دس ا٤ٗ سٚش حبِت ثقذ٢ دادٜٞب٢ ٛٔخٛد ٚ تبس٤خ٣ است، وٝ اص عش٤ك ٔمب٤سٝ فمظ ثٝ حبِت فق٣ّ ثست٣ٍ داسد ٚ پبسأتش ٔىب٣٘ سا دس دادٜٞب٢ ص٣ٙ٥ٔ، فىسٞب٢ ٛٞا٣٤ ٚ تػب٤ٚش ٔبٛٞاسٜا٢ ثب پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ دس ؾ٘ش ٥ٌ٣ٕ٘شد )34(. ث٥ٕٞ ٝٗ ٛؾٙٔس ا٤ٗ استفبدٜ اص تى٥ٙهٞب٢ ٤ىپبسچٝ اص سٙدص اص دٚس GIS ٚ سٚش ٔقٕٛﻻ ثب سٚشٞب٢ ٔىب٣٘ ٕٞچٖٛ سٚش أىبٖپز٤ش است )31، 49(. سـَّٞٛـب٢ خٛدوبس تّف٥ك ٣ٔضٛد. دس ٔـذَ سـَّٞٛـب٢ آٌب٣ٞ اص ٔىبٖ ٚ سشفت تغ٥٥شات دس وبسثشٞ٢ب، خٛدوبس، فضب ثٝ غٛست ٤ه ضجىٝ تقش٤ف ٣ٔضٛد وٝ ثـٝ ٣ٔتٛا٘ذ ثٝ ت٥ٕػٓ ٥ٌش٘ذٌبٖ دس پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ تٛص٤ـ ٔىب٣٘ ٞـش خبٝ٘ آٖ ٤ه سَّٛ ٌفتٝ ٣ٔضٛد. سـَّٞٛـب دس سٚش تغ٥٥شات آت٣ وبسثشٞ٢ب دس ٙٔبعك ٔختّف وٕه وٙذ خٛدوبس س٣ِّٛ دس صٔبٖٞب٢ ٌسستٝ ثٝ عٛس ٕٞضٔبٖ ٚ ثش )11، 28(. ثٝ فﻻٜٚ ٔذَسبص٢ سٚ٘ذ تغ٥٥شٞب٢ ضٙبسب٣٤ عجك ٤ـه لـبٖٛ٘ ٔحّـ٣ ثٙٞ ٍٝبْ ٣ٔضٛ٘ذ. ا٤ٗ سٚش دس ضذٚ ٜ پ٥ صث٣ٙ٥ ا٢ٍِٛ ص٥ٔٗ، اثضاس ٣ٕٟٔ دس ثٝٙ٥ٟسبص٢ پژٞٚصٞب٢ ثس٥بس٢ ثشا٢ پ٥ص ث٣ٙ٥ تغ٥٥ش وبسثش٢ اساض٣ وبسثش٢ اساض٣ دس ثّٙذ ٔذت است ٚ أىبٖ ثشآٚسد ٛٔسد تٛخٝ ثٛدٜ است. اص خّٕٝ پژٞٚط٣ وٝ ثٝ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ سٙبسٞٛ٤ب٢ آٙ٤ذٜ سا ٕٔىٗ ٣ٔسبصد )17(. ٔذَٞب٢ تغ٥٥شات وبسثش٢ اساض٣ دس حٛص٠ آثخ٥ض ٌش٤ٗ ثشا٢ سبَ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ دس ا٘تخبة ٙٔبعك ثب ا٤ِٛٚت حفبؽت، ت٥ؾٙٓ 2042 ثب استفبدٜ اص تػب٤ٚش ٔبٛٞاسٜا٢ سبَٞب٢ 1986، الذأبت ٔذ٤ش٤ت٣ ٚ ضجٝ٥سبص٢ ٙٔغمٛٔ ٝسد ٔغبِقٝ، تحت ٚ 2000 2014 پشداخت. دس ا٤ٗ پژٞٚص ثش لبث٥ّت ٔذَ سٙبسٞٛ٤ب٢ ٔختّف تغ٥٥ش ال٥ّٓ ٥٘ض، وبسثشد داسد )23(. ٔبسوٛف ٚ سَّٞٛب٢ خٛدوبس دس پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ تغ٥٥شات 1 Cellular Automata 2 Markov Chain پيص بينی تأثير تغيير کاربري و پوضص اراضی بر گسترش تپههاي ... 30 وبسثش٢ اساض٣ ٚ ا٥ٕٞت ٘تب٤ح دس خٟت ٔذ٤ش٤ت دسست تغ٥٥شات وبسثش٢ اساض٣ دس ا٤ٗ ٙٔغمٝ ٔسّٕب ٌبْ ٣ٕٟٔ حٛصٜٞب٢ آثخ٥ض تبو٥ذ ضذ )22(. ٘تب٤ح استفبدٜ اص ا٤ٗ دس ٟٔبس ٚ وٙتشَ تغ٥٥شات غ٥ش اغ٣ِٛ ٚ استفبدٜ ثٝٙ٥ٟ اص ٔذَ تشو٥ج٣ ثشا٢ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ پٛضص ص٥ٔٗ دس وطٛس ٙٔبثـ سشص٥ٔٗ است. ٘تب٤ح پژٞٚص حبضش ٣ٔتٛا٘ذ ثٝ پشتغبَ ٘طبٖ داد، سٚش سَّٞٛب٢ خٛدوبس ص٘د٥شٜ ت٥ٕػٓ ٥ٌش٘ذٌبٖ دس ساستب٢ اخز الذأبت ٔذ٤ش٤ت٣ ٔبسوٛف داسا٢ غحت٣ لبثُ لجَٛ ثشا٢ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ اساض٣ ٙٔبست وٕه وٙذ. عج٥ق٣ ٚ ا٘سبٖ سبخت است ٚ ٣ٔتٛا٘ذ دس ساستب٢ تٛسقٝ پب٤ذاس ٛٔثش ثبضذ )10(. دس پژٞٚط٣ د٤ٍش اص ا٤ٗ ٔذَ ثشا٢ مًاد ي ريش َا اسص٤بث٣ ٚ پ٥صث٣ٙ٥ تغ٥٥شات ٔىب٣٘ - صٔب٣٘ ثٛ٥سفش مىطمۀ مًرد مطالعٍ اسسجبساٖ ثشا٢ سبَ 2037 دس سٝ وبسثش٢ وطبٚسص٢، ٔحذٚد٠ ٛٔسد ٔغبِقٝ حٛص٠ آثخ٥ض دِتب٢ خ٥ٍٗ دس خٚ ٍُٙ صٞٗ٥ٔب٢ ثب٤ش استفبدٜ ضذ.
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