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The Contemporary Socio- Economic Iranian Thoughts

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The Contemporary Socio- Economic Iranian Thoughts Faculty of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship Special Issues (2017 No. 3, Part I) International Review 1 INTERNATIONAL REVIEW Special Issue No.3 Part I. THE CONTEMPORARY SOCIO- ECONOMIC IRANIAN THOUGHTS Round Table, 15. June 2017, Tehran Guest Editor: Prof. Dr Zvonko Brnjas, Institute of Economic Science, Belgrade, Serbia INTERNATIONAL REVIEW Special Issue No.3, Part I Faculty of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship Special Issues (2017 No. 3, Part I) International Review 3 THE CONTEMPORARY SOCIO- ECONOMIC IRANIAN THOUGHTS ROUND TABLE June, 2017, Tehran, Iran Guest editor: Prof.Dr Zvonko Brnjas Institute of Economic Science, Belgrade, Serbia ISSN 2217-9739 Faculty of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship Special Issues (2017 No. 3, Part I) International Review 5 CONTENTS Statistical analysis of the technical strategy of turtle traders in the foreign exchange market (Forex market) .......................................................................................................................................................... 7 Masoumeh Akandeh Mahdi Khodayari Identification and classification of internal factors affecting lack of ideal functioning of national development policies............................................................................................................................................... 19 Azarli, A. Amini S.J Determining the Link between Relationship Marketing Tactics and Customer Loyalty (Case Study: Iranian Balanced Development Company) .......................................................................................................... 33 Behrouz Nouri Mehdi Irannejad Parizi Mehrdad Nouri The Role of Message Management Policy Model in Improving Children's Social Skills ................................. 45 Marzieh Faravardeh An Analysis of Civic Culture in Arak Metropolitan ........................................................................................... 55 Hamid Reza Khanmohammadi Hezaveh Mahtab Homaei Latif The Civil Liability in Iran’s Law and Studying The Abstract Causes .............................................................. 67 Mahmood Shekarpour Sadegh Esmaeili Mehdi Nazi Mansour Hossieni Abouzar Mouri The Impact of Cultural Industries on Stagflation in Iran .................................................................................. 76 Mahbobeh Amerian Noshin Khani Gharieghapi Hadi Dadkhah Investigating effect of volatilities in crude oil prices on the unemployment rate in major Major oil exporting OPEC members countries with EGARCH approach ........................................................................ 83 Javad Salahi Marjan Damankeshideh Seyyed Alireza Haj Mosavi Prioritizing sub-criteria of political and economic factors on export of cumin with an emphasis on production capacity of the city of Neyshabur under the supervision of experts from export companies in the city of Mashhad using the multi-criteria decision-making technique (AHP) ............................................. 93 Morteza Matbaehchi Ettehad Masoud Javidi Zargari Saeid Bakhtiari Investigation of the Relationship between the Bank Loan Ratio and Return on Capital and Trade Credit of Accepted Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange .......................................................................................... 102 Amir Mohajer Mohammad Reza Khorshidi Investigating the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and stock value of listed insurance companies in Tehran stock exchange .................................................................................................................................... 108 Mohadese Tirgar Gouygani Ali Raeispour Rajabali 6 Faculty of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship Special Issues (2017 No. 3, Part I) International Review (2017 No.3-4) Investigation the effect of total quality management on organizational performance by using structural equation modeling ................................................................................................................................................ 114 Mahboubeh Saeidifar Hamzeh Amin-Tahmasbi On the relationship between socialization indicators and depression level among active and passive people with disabilities in the city of Mashhad .................................................................................................. 120 Takatom Niazi A Comparative Study of the Factors Affecting the Institutionalization of Sports among Students: A Case Study of Mashhad Farhangian University ......................................................................................................... 125 Fariborz Ramezani Esmaeil Kiyomarsi Mohammad Ali Sahebkaran Reza Soheili Mohammad Keshtidar Investigating the Relationship between Moral Reputation and Perceived Value with Customer Loyalty in Banks ................................................................................................................................................................. 134 Reza Imani Hossein Didekhani Fatemeh Javan Eghbal Hassan Hokmabadi Manizheh Barzegaran Fatemeh Falahati Evaluation of amount of strategic management of quality and building trust and its relationship with financial performance (Case Study: the Melli Bank of Ardabil province) ...................................................... 142 Nemat Biazar Hossein Alipour Saeed Lazemi Effect of the Quality of Services Offered in the Field of Medical Tourism on Tourists’ Loyalty: A Study on Ebn-e Sina Hospital......................................................................................................................................... 152 Mahsan Zare Mostafa Saffari Faculty of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship Special Issues (2017 No. 3, Part I) International Review 7 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TECHNICAL STRATEGY OF TURTLE TRADERS IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET (FOREX MARKET) Masoumeh Akandeh1 Mahdi Khodayari2 Abstract In this research the technical strategy of turtle traders was statistically analyzed. In other words, in this research it was tried to discover whether using said strategy yields a higher return compared to random (chance-based) transactions. The purposes of this research included achieving a beneficial strategy for trading in the Forex market within a 1-hour time frame and investigating the performance and testing the profitability of the strategy of turtle traders. Non-random-judgmental sampling was used for sampling and the sample comprised of 4 major currency pairs. Next, the cycle where the back test takes place was specified and in some trading software, the diagram of each currency pair was executed and the corresponding indicator was implemented on it and based on said strategy, we started to perform transactions and calculate the return. That way, the price of the entry, exit, maintenance cycle and return of each position was identified. Next, by performing a simulation process in the MATLAB software, some n-cycle permutations (80 permutations) were specified for one specific currency pair and extracted in the study cycle and we considered buying and selling positions for each one of them, in this case, by considering 80 permutations, we will have 80 returns for a specific n-day cycle where the arithmetic mean of these 80 numbers will represent the return of n-day cycles in a specific currency pair which became the basis for statistical calculations. The results showed that in each 4 currency pairs investigated in the study cycle, the strategy of turtle traders significantly outperformed the random status (at a confidence level of 95). Keywords: strategy, Forex, technical analysis, turtle JEL: G10 1 [email protected] 2 [email protected] 8 Faculty of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship Special Issues (2017 No. 3, Part I) International Review (2017 No.3-4) Introduction Problem statement After the emergence of financial markets and the issue of earning an income from these markets and after some people earned massive profits or losses, the activists in these markets faced the question of what leads to profit and loss in these markets, and in fact, one of the most important and major questions that the players of the world‟s markets face is what and when some assets should be traded and at what price? should the desired assets be bought or sold? And finally, when and at what prices, should we close our position and exit those assets to increase our profit and return. With the use of a strategy it becomes possible to have a trading discipline and avoid behavioral biases so an investor can enter profitable deals based on his own strategy without being affected by market excitements, rumors and unconfirmed news. Also, having a strategy gives the investor this position to optimize and improve his strategy over time after several deals. Traders believe that via fundamental analysis, it is possible to be informed about the foundation of a company and discover whether the desired company is suitable for investment, but this branch of analysis cannot help identify two main and important principles in investment, in other words, it cannot be identified where and at what price is it best to enter a pair currency. Traders in financial markets rely on foundational and technical views (or a combination of both) to analyze the market and make decisions on investment. In fact, a challenging topic in this field is how to change these analyses into a “deal”. Does every analysis lead to a deal? Are the elements in the analysis and deal (despite an undeniable correlation) the same? The
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