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China Matters Explores Views from across the aisle: What should Australia do about... its relationship with the PRC? by Tim Watts The COVID-19 pandemic has put a spotlight on a leading international partner in producing scientific difficult new phase of the relationship between publications. Australia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This has created widespread anxiety about the The PRC’s relationship with the United States – extent of Australia’s economic reliance on trade with Australia’s enduring security partner – has become the PRC. Three-quarters of respondents in the 2020 increasingly confrontational. Under the leadership Lowy Institute Poll agreed that Australia was too of President Xi Jinping, the PRC has become more economically reliant on the PRC. Recent disputes assertive in pursuing its clearly stated interests, over wheat, lobster, wine, barley, beef, tourists both in its diplomatic relations around the world and students have significantly – and reasonably – and strategically in the Indo-Pacific. At the same exacerbated these fears. time, under President Donald Trump, the US has become less consistent in its engagement with What can we do? the world in general, and the PRC in particular. Managing the difficult dynamics of the Australia– Between the PRC’s “wolf warrior” diplomats and PRC relationship is, in the words of Labor’s @realDonaldTrump, PRC–US power competition Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister, Penny Wong, a makes Australia’s relationship with the PRC even “consequential and complex” challenge. No silver more difficult to navigate. bullet will deliver a quick fix. Simultaneously, Australia and the PRC have had Regardless, it is in the interests of both Australia a series of substantive disagreements. Issues like and the PRC to have a productive relationship. There the detention of Australian citizens Yang Hengjun are international issues where Australia and the PRC and Cheng Lei, the repression of Uighurs and other share similar interests and should constructively minorities, Hong Kong, cybersecurity, and reports work together, like climate change and disaster of interference in our democracy by the Communist response. Party of China show fundamental differences in Consistent, persistent diplomacy and political values and interests between Australia and the PRC. leadership over the long-term is needed to ensure This is not going to change anytime soon and we can that Australia is able to cooperate with the PRC where expect further substantive disagreements. we can, clearly stand up for our values and interests where they conflict with those of the PRC, and Nevertheless, decoupling from the PRC would understand how to manage these differences where be an unprecedented act of national self-sabotage. they arise. Given the differing values and interests The scale of Australia’s economic engagement with in the Australia–PRC relationship, understanding, the PRC over the past two decades has profoundly rather than agreement, may be the most sensible benefited both nations. Driven by Beijing’s post- objective here. COVID-19 stimulus measures, the PRC accounted for 48.8 per cent of Australian merchandise exports This will require maintaining long-term in the June quarter, more than double the size of consistency of message in our engagement with our next largest export market, Japan. In 2019, the the PRC. This will demand a lot of Australia’s PRC also overtook the US to become Australia’s political leaders. Conflict has come to define the [email protected] facebook.com/ChinaMattersAustralia @ChinaMattersAUS chinamatters.org.au Views from across the aisle: November–December 2020 Page 1 China Matters Explores relationship in the public discourse. But being clear relations – as South Korea, Canada, France, the UK, in defining our national interests – particularly in the Czech Republic and India can attest. Crucially, the safeguarding our sovereignty and upholding the briefings would help stakeholders understand we rules-based international system – which are above are not the only country that wants an international the domestic political fray, should not preclude order governed by institutions and the rule of law considered engagement. rather than by great power rivalry and the arbitrary exercise of power. A good start for the Australian Build an independent foreign policy Government would be regular identity in Southeast Asia background briefings ... for This sense of perspective – the realisation that key stakeholders: parliamen- we are not alone in confronting these challenges tarians, the media, and state – should ground the most important step that and territory governments. Australia could take for its relationship with the PRC post-COVID-19: build an independent foreign policy Australia’s leaders will need to work hard to identity defined by the shared interests of significant ensure the relationship is not subsumed by short- and emerging powers in Southeast Asia. term domestic politics and that Government leaders While our strategic interests will continue to unfold speak with one voice while engaging the PRC. To do in the broader Indo-Pacific, there are reasons for this, the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister Australia to focus our attention on our immediate need to lead the conversation, setting out a long- neighbourhood. Our geography means that we will term plan for the relationship and explaining this to always share interests with Southeast Asian nations the Australian people – including the private sector. on issues such as trade and economic integration, Politicians should avoid gratuitous and inflammatory maritime cooperation, climate change, human actions that seek to sow division or set tests of trafficking, transnational crime and terrorism and, patriotism for partisan ends. saliently, public health. More broadly though, A good start for the Australian Government would Southeast Asia is home to countries that share be regular background briefings on the context for our interests: significant and emerging powers the relationship from DFAT, Home Affairs, Treasury, like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Defence and the intelligence agencies for key Vietnam and Singapore that want to see a rules- stakeholders: parliamentarians, the media, and state based international system and are disconcerted by and territory governments. While the Opposition great power geopolitics. has been calling for this since August 2019, these Investing in an Australian foreign policy identity requests have so far been rejected by the Foreign grounded in our interests as a significant power Minister. As media coverage continues to focus on in Southeast Asia would not avoid the difficult specific disagreements between Australia and the dynamics of the Australia–PRC relationship. We PRC, these briefings would provide perspective would still confront substantive disagreements and on where those differences fit into the broader the pressures of geostrategic positioning. But it Australia–PRC relationship. would provide an intellectual frame for Australia’s efforts to shape a rules-based international system A priority for these briefings should be to bring anchored in our region. context to Australia’s relationship with the PRC. Viewed in isolation, the structural challenges facing The wake of COVID-19 is a unique opportunity for the Australia–PRC relationship are significant. But Australia to deepen our relationships here. Countries we are far from alone. At least 78 countries, like like Indonesia and the Philippines are suffering Australia, have some version of an official strategic acutely from the health crisis, while countries like partnership with the PRC. Nor are we the only Malaysia and Thailand face great challenges in the country to experience a period of frosty diplomatic accompanying economic crisis. We should make it Views from across the aisle: November–December 2020 Page 2 China Matters Explores clear to our neighbours that we want to face these cast this support in zero-sum terms. ASEAN states challenges together and aim for a seat at the table have made it clear they do not want to be caught in in the regional response. If, as is likely, the PRC is the middle of the deteriorating PRC–US relationship. engaged in similar endeavours that are welcomed Australia should also be making this clear to the by regional partners, then we should not rule out incoming Biden administration. engagement with it too. These tactical opportunities for engagement in the The special ASEAN Plus Three (the PRC, Japan wake of COVID-19 are important, but to truly embed and South Korea) Summit that convened in mid- ourselves in the region we need a comprehensive April is exactly the kind of forum that we should aim Indo-Pacific strategy that commits to sustained for inclusion in. The Summit agreed on a regional engagement with Southeast Asia. This requires a response to COVID-19 and canvassed action on significant, long-term upgrade in our institutions of a medical supplies reserve, on using technology engagement at home; in our study abroad programs; for outbreak tracking and information sharing, in the study of Asian languages at our schools and and on the creation of a COVID-19 response fund. universities; in the regional expertise within our It also canvassed regional cooperation on the universities; in our broader Asian studies resources economic recovery – a key factor for Australia’s including the Asian collections at the National own recovery given that ASEAN states collectively

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