1111 2 Reframing the Problem 3 4 of Climate Change 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 This book provides an evaluation of the science and policy debates on climate 4 change and offers a reframing of the challenges they pose, as understood by key 5 international experts and players in the field. It also gives an important and original 6 perspective on interpreting climate action and provides compelling evidence of 7 the weakness of arguments that frame climate policy as a win-or-lose situation. 8 At the same time, the book goes beyond providing yet another description 9 of climate change trends and policy processes. Its goal is to make available, in a 20111 series of in-depth reflections and insights by key international figures representing 1 science, business, finance and civil society, what is really needed to link knowledge 2 to action. Different contributions convincingly show that it is time – and possible 3 – to reframe the climate debate in a completely new light, perhaps as a system 4 transformative attractor for new green growth, sustainable development and 5 technological innovation. 6 Reframing the Problem of Climate Change reflects a deep belief that dealing with 7 climate change does not have to be a zero sum game, with winners and losers. 8 The contributors argue that our societies can learn to respond to the challenge it 9 presents and avoid both human suffering and large scale destruction of ecosystems; 30111 and that this does not necessarily require economic sacrifice. Therefore, it is vital 1 reading for students, academics and policy-makers involved in the debate 2 surrounding climate change. 3 4 Carlo C. Jaeger is head of the research domain on transdisciplinary concepts 35 and methods of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Germany. 6 Klaus Hasselmann is founding director of the Max Planck Institute of 7 Meteorology, Germany. 8 Gerd Leipold is a former director of Greenpeace International. 9 40111 Diana Mangalagiu teaches at Reims Management School, France and is 1 Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, University 2 of Oxford, UK. 3 J. David Tàbara is a senior researcher at the Institute of Environmental Sciences 4 and Technology of the Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain. 45111 1111 2 Reframing the Problem 3 4 of Climate Change 5 6 From zero sum game to 7 8 win-win solutions 9 1011 1 2 3111 Edited by Carlo C. Jaeger, 4 5 Klaus Hasselmann, 6 Gerd Leipold, Diana Mangalagiu 7 8 and J. David Tàbara 9 20111 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 30111 1 2 3 4 35 6 7 8 9 40111 1 2 3 4 45111 publishing for a sustainable future First published 2012 by Earthscan 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Earthscan 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Earthscan is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2012 Carlo C. Jaeger, Klaus Hasselmann, Gerd Leipold, Diana Mangalagiu and J. David Tàbara The right of the editors to be identified as the authors of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Reframing the problem of climate change : From zero sum game to win-win solutions edited by Carlo C. Jaeger . [et al]. p. cm. 1. Climatic changes—Government policy. 2. Environmental policy. I. Jaeger, Carlo. C. QC903.R43 2012 363.738’74—dc23 2011022784 ISBN: 978–1–84971–447–1 (hbk) ISBN: 978–1–84971–448–8 (pbk) ISBN: 978–0–20315–487–4 (ebk) Typeset in Baskerville by Florence Production Ltd, Stoodleigh, Devon 1111 2 Contents 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 Notes on contributors vii 4 5 6 Introduction: Beyond the zero sum game: from 7 shirking burdens to sharing benefits 1 8 CARLO C. JAEGER, KLAUS HASSELMANN, GERD LEIPOLD, 9 DIANA MANGALAGIU AND J. DAVID TÀBARA 20111 1 PART I 2 The status analysis 15 3 4 1 Uncertainty in climate change projections 17 5 MOJIB LATIF 6 7 2 Climate impacts: from numbers to stories 35 8 JOCHEN HINKEL 9 30111 3 Reframing public opinion on climate change 54 1 J. DAVID TÀBARA AND DOUG MILLER 2 3 4 PART II 35 Overcoming the zero sum game 83 6 7 4 Scarcity and coordination in the global commons 85 8 CARLO C. JAEGER 9 40111 5 Assessing Green Growth: the case of Europe 102 1 CARLO C. JAEGER, LEONIDAS PAROUSSOS, DIANA MANGALAGIU, 2 ROLAND KUPERS, ANTOINE MANDEL AND J. DAVID TÀBARA 3 4 6 Putting people at the heart of the climate debate 119 45111 JEREMY HOBBS vi Contents PART III Dealing with complexity – not easy, but it can be done 129 7 The actor-driven dynamics of decarbonization 131 KLAUS HASSELMANN AND ALEXEY VOINOV 8 When futures lock-in the present: towards a new generation of climate scenarios 160 DIANA MANGALAGIU, ANGELA WILKINSON AND ROLAND KUPERS 9 Mainstreaming low-carbon finance 176 BRINDUSA FIDANZA 10 Challenges and opportunities in financing the response to climate change 199 DIANA MANGALAGIU AND JAMES CAMERON 11 An example: reforestation 218 MILLÁN M. MILLÁN Conclusion – action for climate 237 CARLO C. JAEGER, KLAUS HASSELMANN, GERD LEIPOLD, DIANA MANGALAGIU AND J. DAVID TÀBARA Index 245 1111 2 Contributors 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 James Cameron is a pre-eminent expert in developing policy responses to 4 climate change. As Founder and Vice Chairman of Climate Change Capital, 5 he is responsible for strategic and sector development and represents the firm 6 at the highest levels of business and government. He advises organizations on 7 critical environmental and business issues, as a member of the Prime Minister’s 8 Business Advisory Group, GE’s Ecomagination Advisory Board and Pepsico 9 UK’s Advisory Board. He is Chairman of the World Economic Forum’s 20111 Agenda Council on Climate Change and of China Dialogue; a Trustee of both 1 the UK Green Building Council and the Carbon Disclosure Project; a member 2 of the Oxfam Development Board and the Smith School’s Development Board. 3 A lawyer by training at Oxford University, he spent much of his legal career 4 working on issues related to environment and development. Before joining 5 Climate Change Capital, he was Counsel to Baker & McKenzie, and both 6 founded and led their Climate Change Practice. He assisted in negotiating the 7 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol as 8 an adviser to the Alliance of Small Island States, and took on several leading 9 cases in environmental law as a barrister. He has held academic positions at 30111 Cambridge, London, Bruges and Sydney and is currently affiliated with the 1 Yale Centre for Environmental Law and Policy. 2 3 Brindusa Fidanza is Associate Director, Deputy Head of Climate Change 4 Initiatives at the World Economic Forum where she engages business, experts 35 and NGOs on project and programmatic approaches to catalysing private 6 capital into low-carbon infrastructure. She is also a contributor to the World 7 Economic Forum’s Sustainable Competitiveness work. Recently, she has led 8 the Critical Mass initiative for scaling up low-carbon infrastructure financing 9 for developing countries, a partnership of the World Economic Forum with 40111 the United Nations Foundation and the International Finance Corporation, 1 engaging banks, institutional investors and development finance institutions. 2 She facilitated work of the Task Force on Low-Carbon Prosperity, which 3 reported to the UK G20 presidency in 2009 on building blocks of the low- 4 carbon economy. Previously she worked in the private sector – corporate 45111 affairs for JT International in Romania and Switzerland – as well as in the viii Contributors public sector, with the Centre for Applied Studies in International Negotiations (CASIN), Switzerland and in the IFRC and the UN Economic Commission for Europe. Brindusa is a 2011 graduate of the World Economic Forum Global Leadership programme, in partnership with Columbia University, LSE, INSEAD and Wharton Business School. She has a Master in Global Ecology and Sustainable Development and a Master in International Relations from the Graduate Institute in Geneva. Klaus Hasselmann is a physicist who has published extensively in the fields of oceanography, meteorology, climate and, in recent years, in socio-economic models of climate change. He is the founding director emeritus of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology (MPIM) in Hamburg, the former scientific director of the German Climate Computing Centre and is currently vice- chairman of the Global Climate Forum (former European Climate Forum). MPIM was created in 1975 to conduct climate research. It developed rapidly into an internationally leading institute in climate research, contributing significantly to the Scientific Assessments reports of IPCC. Hasselmann’s recent interest in socio-economic modelling of climate change is motivated by the need to develop new system-dynamic, actor-based models in support of climate policy.