Climate Change Risk Assessment

Climate Change Risk Assessment 2015 vicroads.vic.gov.au Disclaimer This Assessment document has been prepared by VicRoads to assist it in adapting to climate change in the construction, maintenance and management of road and road related assets. While it has been prepared taking all professional care, it should not be relied on as the basis of decision making, but could contribute to the strategic context to inform further work. Contents Executive Summary 4 1. Introduction 5 2. Climate Change Adaptation 6 3. Strategic Context 8 4. Climate Change Projections 11 5. Climate Change Risk Assessment 14 5.1 Asset information 17 6. Detailed Risk Assessment 20 6.1 Sea Level Risk 20 6.2 Temperature 24 6.3 Rainfall 25 6.4 Extreme Weather Events 28 6.5 UV Level 29 6.6 Prioritising Risks 30 7. Developing Adaptation Responses 32 7.1 Sea Level Rise 32 7.2 Temperature 34 7.3 Rainfall 35 7.4 UV Level 36 7.5 Long Term Asset Responses 36 7.6 Organisational Responses 37 8. Next Steps 38 Glossary 39 Bibliography 40 Appendices 42 Appendix 1 : Case Studies 42 Phillip Island Road – Climate Adaptation 42 Great Ocean Road – Adaptation Measure 43 Executive Summary Overall, the climate change risk assessment has identified that whilst there are forecast impacts to Similar to other road agencies both nationally and different asset classes through time, the appropriate internationally, VicRoads is working to develop approach is primarily guided by the likely lifespan its own responses to climate change. Significant of the assets. For example, with respect to assets effort has been undertaken in the last five years with short life spans (i.e. Intelligent Transport to understand the level of risks posed to the road Systems), or periodic replacement requirements network from the projected changes in climate and (i.e. pavement surfacing) adaptation measures to take action to mitigate its greenhouse emissions will be implemented as a running change at an to lessen the impacts and the risks associated with appropriate point in time. However, a number of climate change (VicRoads, 2010). assets have a lifetime beyond normal budgetary In general the more mitigation there is, the less forecasting timeframes (i.e. bridges). In these cases, will be the impacts to which we will have to adjust the adaptation measures will need to be built into and the less the risks for which we will have to try the construction requirements of future assets and prepare. Conversely, the greater the degree of and a set of responses will be needed to manage preparatory adaptation, the less may be the impacts existing assets to ensure they continue to perform associated with any given degree of climate change. for their planned life. This risk assessment document summarises the The greatest single climate change risk to VicRoads work undertaken to assess the risks to VicRoads is the impact to assets in coastal regions from sea infrastructure associated with climate change level rise. Whilst these impacts are predicted in low parameters, as well as some appreciation of the lying areas across the entire Victorian coastline, timeframe and potential directions for climate change the impact is likely to be greatest in Eastern adaptation. In developing this Assessment document, Region, potentially through a combination of the VicRoads has assumed a future climate with the overtopping of roads, impacts to pavement layers highest level of climate change impact, consistent and the structures of bridges in these locations with the approach of most organisations and resulting in likely interruptions to network operations. government bodies within Australia. Whilst it is important to start building knowledge in the shorter term to support adaptation actions, sufficient time remains to be better informed as new information emerges regarding climate projections. As a consequence, this adaptation strategy will need to continuously evolve as more modelling and measurement is undertaken to monitor the performance of the road network over time. This is particularly important as data regarding the performance of the road network or changes to climate projections will be analysed and absorbed often faster than policy and planning can adapt. 4 1. Introduction Many of the projected impacts will be adverse, but some may be positive. This Assessment The VicRoads road network is a $45 billion document outlines how VicRoads will address government asset, a key component of the state’s adaptation in response to the potential impacts overall transportation infrastructure, which links of climate change during the planning, design, with local roads and other transportation modes. operation and maintenance of the State’s main Its continued safe and efficient operation is road infrastructure. In particular, it addresses essential to economic prosperity. how VicRoads will factor in anticipated changes VicRoads operates, maintains and upgrades the in climatic parameters into the delivery of its main and arterial road network, which consists of activities and develop appropriate management over 22,500 kilometres (51,500 lane kilometres) of and mitigation solutions to remove or reduce main roads across the state. Approximately 19,100 these risks. kilometres are located in regional Victoria, the The magnitude and rate of climate change remainder in Metropolitan areas. Many of VicRoads depends partly on future global greenhouse activities are either directly affected or influenced emissions. Consequently, mitigation action to by the weather and climate. Along with other state reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been and and national infrastructures, roads are vulnerable to continues to be a key focus of other strategies. the effects of climate change. However, even if global greenhouse gas emissions were to stop today, climate change would continue for many decades as a result of past emissions and the inertia of the climate system. Adaptation to already experienced changes in climate as well as to plausible future climate scenarios is therefore a necessity. CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT 5 2. Climate Change Adaptation Second, the result of adaptive action either decreases a system’s vulnerability to changed There is increasing scientific consensus that the conditions or increases its resilience to negative global climate is changing, with these changes impacts. For example, increasing ultra-violet being observed and increasingly documented radiation exposure can cause bituminous surfaces across the world (Stocker, et al., 2013), across across the road network to fail sooner than Australia (CSIRO, 2014), across Victoria anticipated. Using different materials or different (Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability approaches that recognize this vulnerability can Victoria, 2012) and locally within Victoria (SKM, lead to surfaces pavement that will not suffer 2012). These changes are relative to historical adverse performance with higher radiation levels. trends and are being observed in a number of climate parameters such as rainfall volumes and Operational improvements could be made to patterns, temperatures as well as sea levels. Whilst enhance detour routes around flood-prone areas as most parameters are currently operating within a form of resilience. Another example of resilience historical ranges, they are forecast to move beyond is the development of well-designed emergency these by the end of the current century. response plans, which can increase resilience by quickly providing information and travel alternatives A number of organisations have sought to define when highway facilities are closed and by the concept of adaptation. For the purposes of facilitating rapid restoration of damaged facilities. this Assessment document, adaptation consists By increasing system resilience, even though a of actions that reduce the vulnerability of natural particular facility might be disrupted, the main road and human systems or to increase system network as a whole still functions and decreases resiliency in light of expected climate change the consequences of impacts. or extreme weather events. Climate change adaptation for VicRoads is concerned with Figure 2.1 illustrates the different approaches to maintaining network and asset performance adaptation. Some adaptation strategies could be within this changing climate. Several aspects targeted to reduce the impacts of specific types of this definition merit attention. of climate changes. For example, by protecting existing assets or by relocating assets away from First, the types of actions that can be taken to reduce vulnerable areas, the functionality of that asset vulnerability to changing environmental conditions is preserved in future years when more extreme include avoiding, withstanding, and/or taking weather events could create a threat. advantage of climate variability and impacts. Thus, for roads and other road related facilities, avoiding Ultimately, a wide range of activities will be areas forecast to have a higher risk of significant considered “adaptation,” from relatively simple climate impacts should be an important factor in operations and maintenance actions such as planning decisions. If such locations cannot be ensuring culverts and stormwater drains are avoided, steps need to be taken to ensure that road clear of debris, to complex and costly planning infrastructure can withstand the projected changes and engineering actions like re-locating a road in environmental conditions. For example, the alignment away from an area prone to erosion or potential

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